Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231851
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 24/0000 UTC THRU DEC 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MS RIVER EASTWARD...

THE CONTINUED EVOLUTION OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER TROF
INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD WILL LEAD TO THE EXPECTED
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT..ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES UP THE EAST COAST..WITH A BAND
OF MODEST SNOWS LIKELY IN THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE BACK
INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE STILL DIGGING THE STRONG UPPER JET INTO THE BASE OF THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS TX..WHICH WILL SUPPORT SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF COLD FRONT
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY..WITH THE LOW TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING DIFFERNCES IN THIS ENTIRE
EVOLUTION..WITH THE GFS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE LAKES..WHILE THE NAM MAY BE A BIT TOO
SLOW/STRONG.  SO..WENT WITH A COMPROMISE TIMING
SOLUTION..GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL
AND UKMET HIRES MODELS.  THE INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONTINUED
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT WILL DEVELOP
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TUESDAY NIGHT HOURS..WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TYPE FEATURE LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD.
STILL EXPECTING AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3+ INCHES
ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED..WITH SOME ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE.  THE PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS DURING THE PERIOD ALSO ON 50+ KTS OF LOW LEVEL
JET..SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY OVERRUNNING AND PRE
COLD-FRONTAL RAINS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO COASTAL/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT..MODEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL
CENTER..FROM THE MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
AGAIN..FOLLOWED A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GEM REGIONAL AND UKMET
HIRES MODELS HERE.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

POTENT AND FAST MOVING H5 TROF WILL BE SWINGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST..NORTHERN CA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY LATER IN
THE PERIOD..WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  WITH THIS FEATURE DROPPING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST..IT WILL ONLY BRIEFLY TAP INTO A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER MOISTURE/PWS AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY MODEST AND
A FAST MOVING ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.  THUS..EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TOTALS TO BE MAINLY ON THE MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVIER SIDE..WITH
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES.  AS USUAL..THE UKMET
HIRES QPF LOOKS A LITTEL TOO HEAVY..WHILE THE ECMWF HIRES MAY BE A
BIT TOO LIGHT..SO STAYED CLOSE TO A "COMPROMISE" GFS QPF SOLUTION.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 449628 453628 458626 466624 479632 491639 496645 501650
      505656 508660 510664 516682 529723 529732 526741 526767
      527781 526792 527807 524817 520835 518845 518857 519874
      514879 510886 505890 498894 492899 489909 488914 489919
      492927 496939 497944 497949 497960 492967 490970 487970
      484972 472977 458982 452983 443983 434983 429983 426981
      422980 420977 412973 407973 403975 399975 396979 393986
      388992 376001 372003 370003 362007 357005 355003 353999
      353995 354990 355985 357982 379960 384954 387952 389949
      392946 395944 401940 413930 422921 443897 445893 448891
      453884 457876 459873 460870 459866 439887 429897 423901
      417907 407917 396929 391934 388938 384939 381941 376942
      373944 369943 353945 348945 345944 338941 324945 316945
      310943 306941 303937 300930 294927 285925 271921 257913
      250902 244875 240856 236834 242813 255798 275780 297767
      303763 309758 323747 334738 346727 359716 364711 369705
      379692 384686 386682 389681 395676 401670 408658 417638
 0.01 536209 538195 538187 538181 538175 536171 531164 522152
      516131 512123 510119 507115 503109 497101 494090 493079
      488060 484055 480054 476056 475069 475073 473076 469075
      467076 467081 468087 469090 474096 476097 475101 474106
      473112 471117 465123 459127 456130 454133 449138 443141
      437147 431154 425159 420166 414186 409192 402194 398195
      393195 385194 381196 379200 380208 383216 381219 379219
      375221 370226 367233 367238 368244 369247 372251 374255
      377257 386261 390263 393266 397274 400277 403278 407279
      410279 418278 426276 455268 462268 467268 472270 481273
      490277 497283 499286 504288 510283 514274 519264 521252
      522245 521241 518233 514224 509216 504209 503204 505200
      508200 513202 517209 521216 525217 528216 533213 536209
 0.01 540016 538976 538953 538944 534937 529934 524933 522931
      519931 515931 514933 510937 507944 504962 503982 502990
      505996 509000 507003 505005 500007 495008 493011 493016
      493022 494025 497041 501056 504062 507066 511066 512064
      516059 519054 524050 528051 531043 532035 533030 535027
      539023 540016
 0.01 480195 481193 481191 481188 480187 479186 477186 476187
      475187 473188 472191 471192 470193 470195 470198 469200
      470203 472202 473202 474201 475200 476199 477198 478197
      479196 480195
 0.25 521189 522183 521178 518172 514166 512157 495138 482131
      475131 472136 472139 474142 481145 474145 470145 466143
      463143 461145 457153 456155 453156 447159 444166 444171
      446174 447180 441183 438188 437194 437199 441203 445204
      446201 447196 450193 454194 456192 465186 475177 487177
      494178 500181 510189 517192 521189
 0.25 511255 511247 510241 506230 497211 494207 489203 483203
      479204 462211 429221 424224 420224 414217 410216 407213
      399206 391201 387201 385206 387210 390213 399219 403222
      405224 403227 393227 388228 385231 385237 388241 393244
      394249 401257 405259 410262 420263 431263 440262 456256
      464254 474252 478251 481249 482246 481239 480233 480226
      483223 489224 493228 495232 500241 507250 509254 511255
 0.25 503275 503273 503271 502270 501268 501267 500266 499265
      497263 495263 494263 493264 494267 495267 496270 497272
      499274 500275 502276 503275
 0.25 504728 500717 495707 490699 483692 471681 469674 466672
      461671 458672 449668 446666 442662 438661 435662 429663
      425665 418671 413678 401695 352749 339763 328777 317790
      310797 303803 296807 286812 278816 270821 263827 258834
      256842 257852 255862 255866 257871 263877 264886 265892
      267898 273904 279909 282910 286910 302901 314899 320899
      323902 328909 332912 337911 346908 350907 355909 359910
      365910 373907 382904 391899 400895 407890 414886 423883
      431878 439872 451858 457852 462844 472828 476817 479813
      483810 486808 489810 493813 498813 501810 503805 505794
      505777 505764 505744 504734 504728
 0.25 426815 427812 426810 423813 419813 414810 410807 407811
      404817 406821 409826 412831 417830 422825 424820 426815
 0.50 514184 516182 516179 515177 515176 513174 513173 512172
      510172 510173 508175 508177 508179 508180 509182 511183
      512184 514184 514184
 0.50 490219 492214 491211 487207 482206 476207 468211 460215
      440220 436223 432227 428230 424232 410230 402235 399239
      398243 399245 403249 408253 412255 419257 429257 440256
      449254 459250 466244 476240 477236 475230 476225 478223
      482221 490219
 0.50 496745 496740 494738 491737 487738 481741 476745 472749
      468755 462765 456778 451792 448804 447812 444817 440822
      435826 426835 417842 406849 400851 392853 386855 381858
      377862 372864 361868 359867 358863 360856 367846 371840
      375837 377835 375833 371828 369822 370815 377803 392786
      400777 407766 414755 417750 420743 423738 427733 435724
      442715 445708 445700 442694 439689 434684 432683 428685
      421695 414706 408709 404713 396721 378738 373742 368746
      358754 350762 342770 326789 309804 290819 281826 277831
      275836 268846 266852 265859 266865 269870 270877 270884
      272890 275894 287900 292899 297897 307890 317884 322882
      329882 335882 340887 349897 355898 361899 368899 375897
      383895 388893 399888 410883 420879 430872 440863 448855
      456845 458839 460832 465817 467811 468801 469793 472788
      482781 486777 488770 496745
 0.50 492142 491140 490139 489137 487136 486135 484134 482134
      481134 479134 478134 478137 479137 480138 482138 484139
      485140 486141 487142 488143 490144 492142 492142
 0.50 488167 487162 485158 482155 477153 469150 465151 465156
      465169 458175 456178 455180 455184 458185 462183 467177
      473172 482171 486169 488167
 0.50 403216 403214 401211 399209 397208 394205 392204 389204
      389208 391210 393211 396214 398216 401218 403216
 1.00 484217 483212 480211 475212 473214 470215 466217 462218
      460222 461224 464224 466222 469220 473218 476217 482217
      484217
 1.00 481163 480160 478159 477159 475161 474163 474165 476166
      478166 479165 479164 481163
 1.00 461240 461238 460236 459235 459234 458234 457234 455234
      454235 453237 452238 452240 452241 454242 456242 457242
      458242 459242 461240
 1.00 438243 437240 433239 428238 423237 418237 415239 413242
      414245 418248 423249 427249 432249 435247 438244 438243
 1.00 441849 441844 437844 430847 423850 418855 414861 410866
      409869 410871 414870 421868 428865 433861 438855 441849
 1.00 398749 398746 395747 391750 380752 375752 370753 362758
      355764 348771 336784 331791 325797 311808 298821 292826
      286833 282841 280844 278850 278860 279866 281869 283873
      283878 283884 286885 292886 297885 305882 320871 333861
      340854 346847 349844 351840 355832 364816 366811 366805
      370795 374787 378778 385774 391766 396757 398749
 1.50 367768 367763 364764 360766 357768 347778 337789 331801
      324805 317809 306818 297828 292832 288838 285845 283852
      284860 286864 289866 293872 295875 298876 305875 311871
      321861 326857 328854 329850 330845 332841 337838 346836
      352833 355825 359819 361816 361812 355810 352807 353803
      357797 364784 367776 367768
 2.00 352828 352826 351825 349826 348827 348829 347830 347831
      348831 349832 350831 351830 352828
 2.00 347792 346791 344791 344792 343793 341794 341795 343795
      344794 345794 346792 347792
 2.00 331820 330817 327816 321817 309822 298831 294835 290841
      287854 291858 296861 300866 306869 312865 317860 319854
      319845 320837 322831 328827 330822 331820
 3.00 312835 311831 309830 307831 304833 302834 300836 299838
      298842 297845 297849 300849 303848 305847 307845 308842
      310839 311837 312835

$$





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