Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 042215
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
513 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 05/0000 UTC THRU MAR 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND STATES...

STILL NO BIG CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING...WITH A MODERATE
RAINFALL EVENT AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS EXPECTED FROM
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.  AT LEAST MASS
FIELD-WISE...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
PROGRESSING BOTH THE POSITIVE TILT H5 TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST THIS PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  PERSISTENT
MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...EVEN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH CLEAR SUBTROPICAL CONNECTIONS PER THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW LOOPS...WILL PRODUCE SOME MODERATE RAINS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT TIME HOURS...WITH A RATHER BRIEF TRANSITION TO A
WINTRY MIX A BIT FARTHER BEHIND OR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND THEN
THE LONGER DURATION AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS EVEN A BIT
FARTHER BACK/NORTH.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...THERE ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY
THRU THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH THE ECMWF HIRES...UKMET HIRES
AND NAM BEING ON THE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER/FARTHER NORTH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE...WHILE THE GFS...CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL AND THE HIRES ARW
AND NMMB5 ARE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY NOR AS FAR NORTH.  WPC AGAIN
CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED QPF TO ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THESE QPF DIFFERENCES.  THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
FLOODING THREAT INTO THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY INTO ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH HEAVY SNOWS
THE INCREASING THREAT THEREAFTER.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR
DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.


DAYS 2/3...

***SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA***

AFTER AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
COUNTRY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE MUCH QUIETER AFTER THE WINTER STORM DEPARTS THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.  A LARGE AND SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA
WILL SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY.  ONE OF THE MINOR EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT QPF OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.  GIVEN THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THIS TIME, MOST OF THE RAIN OVER THIS AREA SHOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT.


***UPPER PLAINS TO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES***

A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED
AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW FROM THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THESE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING NOTHING AT ALL.
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED DOWNWIND OF ANY UNFROZEN LAKE
WATERS.


***SOUTHERN TEXAS***

AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD FOCUS ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
GENERATE PATCHY LIGHT AREAS OF QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
TEXAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
ONE INCH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEAR
UNIMPRESSIVE, JUSTIFYING ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
NATIONWIDE, OUR QPF AMOUNTS REFLECT A BLEND OF THE GFS, ECMWF, AND
BIASED CORRECTED MODEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TERRY/HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 510298 503292 497285 492277 489268 490261 491255 495252
      499252 501249 502243 502236 503233 505234 510240 513243
      518246 523254 525257
 0.01 427635 431640 433646 434653 434660 434668 434675 433691
      428719 424737 424746 429750 436756 437760 435766 430778
      426789 415814 404841 396862 385884 377909 372923 369930
      368938 365952 361963 353989 350003 348009 347019 346029
      346034 348039 351044 356048 361051 365050 367053 364057
      360060 355060 347059 343059 341061 337062 335066 333069
      334073 337080 338082 336086 335088 332088 327086 320076
      320070 320066 319063 315054 312050 310044 304041 299038
      287032 281029 277025 274021 268018 262009 257998 255997
      252979 255971 260958 264946 273936 283921 286909 287899
      289894 287890 285892 281890 281883 290859 292851 295845
      301834 312817 319807 324797 346750 348744 347740 349729
      350722 353717 359707 367696 372685 385662 388658 390653
      393648 398644
 0.01 537215 538208 538202 537194 536190 531181 525174 522172
      518172 517175 520178 522189 523203 525214 525219 526223
      527224 534221 537215
 0.01 467699 465697 463698 455702 450706 447709 446714 446720
      443728 442731 445732 450728 455722 458716 463709 465706
      466702 467699
 0.01 470870 470868 469865 468863 467861 467860 466858 465858
      465861 465863 465864 466866 467868 467869 468870 469871
      470870
 0.01 446860 445858 440858 436861 431861 426860 422860 420863
      422867 424869 430870 435870 440868 441863 445861 446860
 0.01 323093 320092 319090 315089 313090 309091 307093 305094
      303095 302099 305101 308101 310100 313099 316097 318096
      321095 323093
 0.01 273812 275809 274807 272806 270805 269805 267805 265805
      263805 261806 260806 259807 259809 260811 260812 262812
      264812 266812 268812 269813 271813 273812 273812
 0.25 522267 521266 520265 519264 517262 516261 514260 513259
      511259 510260 509261 509262 508264 509265 509267 509270
      509271 511273 512273 512274 514274 516274 517274 519275
 0.25 421680 420668 418663 415662 410662 405663 401666 397669
      392676 388683 382692 378700 376704 372706 369712 367734
      359751 355759 351767 344781 337797 334806 334812 335818
      338821 340826 338836 336845 333852 326868 318885 310903
      303915 295930 286945 283954 281960 283964 284973 287979
      297980 305978 310977 313978 314983 317990 320990 324988
      329983 332977 340961 348945 357927 364913 372896 379879
      386859 397825 403804 405793 406781 407772 410763 413744
      417722 420699 421680
 0.25 329007 331004 331002 331000 329001 328003 327005 326008
      325009 325010 327010 329007
 0.25 328850 329848 329846 327845 326846 325847 324849 323850
      323851 322853 324854 325854 326853 327851 328850
 0.25 308848 307845 305845 301848 300851 298857 299859 298863
      296868 297873 301870 304867 306863 304859 306855 307850
      308848
 0.25 306002 307998 305996 300994 295994 290997 286001 283001
      282005 283010 287013 291017 296015 300010 304006 306002
 0.50 415703 414693 412684 409678 403682 397686 393694 387708
      380719 376734 373742 370748 361762 356773 352789 347825
      344839 338852 331865 324881 312905 305920 299935 298942
      299949 300953 303956 304959 307960 315958 319960 322962
      327960 332955 346934 355919 362906 368895 374881 380866
      385850 393820 397802 401783 403769 405761 407754 410737
      414718 415703
 0.50 294012 294010 293008 292010 292012 293013 294012
 1.00 406717 405711 404708 401710 399715 392734 384751 382755
      377758 372765 368773 367778 367783 365795 365802 364807
      364811 368811 372814 372821 373827 371833 370838 369844
      367849 363849 359852 357856 356860 360863 363861 365863
      363872 360881 356890 353896 354898 356897 360890 363883
      367875 371865 373860 374853 376845 380836 383827 385813
      390795 394772 400754 402742 404731 406717
 1.00 326919 325919 326920 326919 348917 346913 342916 340919
      337923 335926 332930 331934 333936 336934 339930 341927
      344923 346920 348917
 1.00 341864 339862 337864 334870 330877 327884 324892 323899
      322904 325903 328897 331891 334884 338877 340869 341864

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 540203 537185 528176 521162 517158 512154 510155 511159
      513163 512168 507172 506176 508180 512186 515192 517200
      516205 517209 517214 518218 523217 525220 529222 534220
      538213 540203 540203
 0.01 521269 522267 523261 521253 517246 514240 511236 507233
      503233 502230 497223 496224 495231 498238 502244 503249
      501252 497252 496248 491241 488240 486243 489262 492269
      495275 500282 507286 510286 514284 518279 519275
 0.01 534103 534085 532069 531052 530045 528038 525029 523023
      517012 513006 509001 504997 500995 497995 495997 490996
      487992 482989 479994 478005 478014 479022 486033 494042
      498048 501055 504070 503088 502097 503101 502106 504114
      507120 510121 513124 518125 523123 527118 531113 534103
 0.01 521889 521881 517876 513876 510875 509872 505847 497822
      496817 494812 490803 484793 481789 477787 474785 469785
      465784 460785 455786 452787 450789 448794 448800 445810
      444815 444822 446827 445833 445836 442846 433861 433867
      438869 442870 447870 449867 452868 455872 462876 464881
      465888 467894 468895 470893 471888 474886 476891 477897
      480912 482919 484923 490944 495955 501962 505965 509965
      512962 514957 514951 514942 509931 509923 509916 510911
      513906 521889
 0.01 425662 424657 422655 419649 417645 414643 409642 403644
      398648 392650 386656 381658 376663 369672 366678 364683
      360691 352700 348701 345700 340700 335703 330709 324719
      318728 314737 308748 305752 302755 298761 294765 284774
      275782 267791 250801 250806 256809 266812 279815 284819
      288824 286832 283836 274845 268851 264857 260862 258867
      258873 258883 259892 259899 256905 252914 241933 238936
      236941 233952 232959 232969 234975 236979 239985 242988
      244991 245996 243003 241010 238015 230024 228031 227036
      228042 229045 231047 238048 242047 247038 249031 250026
      258014 259005 260997 260989 260985 261982 265978 266973
      271959 279941 285929 288914 290908 290900 293893 294887
      296882 296874 297866 300861 303856 306852 311843 316839
      319834 322829 325823 331811 335807 342804 351799 360794
      369786 374776 379765 387752 395743 402732 415711 418702
      422690 424683 425673 425662
 0.25 536207 536206 536204 535201 535198 534195 532194 531193
      530194 529195 528195 527196 526198 526201 527203 527204
      528205 529207 530207 531208 532209 534209 536207 536207
 0.25 517273 519268 519265 517262 516259 515256 514252 512252
      510254 510257 510262 510265 511270 512274 514276 516275
      517273
 0.25 404675 402670 397668 392671 389677 387686 386691 383694
      376706 371713 365720 361723 358720 355716 349715 345717
      342720 337727 331735 326744 319759 315770 312780 308789
      306797 304810 305818 307824 310824 313822 318815 339784
      350767 356761 362754 375740 380733 385724 394706 398698
      401688 403680 404675
 0.25 263949 264943 263937 260934 255934 248938 243944 237951
      235955 235959 236964 237967 244974 248974 252973 256966
      260958 263949
 0.50 516267 516264 515263 514263 514264 514267 515268 516267
 0.50 354748 353744 349744 346740 342735 337736 331746 326757
      322769 320782 320789 321792 324791 328787 330781 337771
      343762 346757 351753 354748


24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 543190 543182 540175 534163 527153 524150 518148 513147
      511149 509153 508161 509164 508167 506166 505169 505174
      507180 513192 518204 523216 524222 526225 529226 534228
 0.01 524260 523260 521259 519259 518260 516261 515261 514263
      512266 511268 512271 511273 511276 512279 511281 511284
      512286 512287 513289
 0.01 538024 538016 536010 534002 530996 523989 515983 504977
      499974 497967 494952 489939 487934 484929 477918 475916
      475912 478908 479901 478896 473882 469873 467865 464852
      463842 466836 465821 461814 460804 462797 464792 467788
      469782 471773 473767 476751 477743 477736 480730 481724
      485712 489697 492684 493678 492670 491664 489662 486660
      483659 481659 473662 469666 466672 463685 462690 457695
      448704 441712 433720 430725 427729 424735 422743 420749
      420757 420764 421773 422781 420788 416792 413799 416810
      423818 432828 435835 436842 436847 435849 431854 422858
      422862 423863 428864 432865 435866 445874 453881 456904
      456910 454912 451911 448908 445908 443911 441916 443923
      447934 451941 453948 457959 460964 462969 464971 462973
      460970 455966 449961 444963 443970 443976 446983 450994
      457006 468025 472029 476032 483041 485043 489043 493040
      497044 500052 505061 508068 512073 516077 521078 525076
      526069 524060 522053 517039 515034 514031 514027 522031
      525032 527034 530034 533032 536028 538024
 0.01 368725 367718 364712 362707 359704 355701 349700 344701
      341704 337707 333711 329719 324727 318737 308754 303761
      300767 296771 292773 286775 278779 270785 260790 251795
      245802 242807 241812 242819 244820 249820 253821 259822
      263821 268818 272815 276812 282812 288811 290813 291816
      288826 287832 288839 292841 295839 299836 301832 304827
      304822 306816 307814 310812 316806 320802 322797 327789
      332781 335776 337771 346758 362740 365735 366732 368728
      368725
 0.01 316964 316949 312937 311923 306911 300905 295902 289901
      286904 285911 286919 287925 287928 284929 280931 274941
      264960 264968 266972 268977 272982 273986 274992 275001
      276005 280006 282008 287008 297002 299998 299991 300986
      302984 306981 310977 312973 316964
 0.01 262015 263007 263998 263990 262984 261976 259970 256967
      253968 253972 252988 250002 245013 239023 239027 240031
      241034 245036 250034 254031 257025 262015
 0.25 290797 289794 286791 283790 278791 271794 268796 266798
      260803 255808 256812 260812 265808 270803 279802 287800
      290797

$$




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