Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FXUS04 KWBC 141848
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
144 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 15/0000 UTC THRU JAN 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES...

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT
EASTWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE ENERGY GENERATES
AND ULTIMATELY DEEPENS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON MONDAY. THE ROBUST LEFT-EXIT REGION UPPER
FORCING....DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND 700 MB CONVERGENCE
LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AND
THEN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. LOCALLY MODERATE
TOTALS IN MESOSCALE BANDS...INCLUDING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH A REGION OF
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SINKING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST MT
ACROSS WY AND EASTERN CO ON MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF FLOW OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG HORN MTNS
OF WY TO THE SNOWY RANGE OF WY.

WPC QPF UTILIZED A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE OF THE
CONSENSUS/CONTINUITY FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MEAN/12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM/12Z NAM/12Z UKMET/12Z NSSL
WRF.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE APPROACH OF A LOW LEVEL FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TO SPUR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN THAT DRIFT
ONSHORE FROM NORTHWEST CA TO WESTERN OR AND WA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL TIMING LEADS TO A
CONSENSUS BASED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST.
WPC QPF UTILIZED A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE OF THE
CONSENSUS/CONTINUITY FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE HREF HIGH-RES
MEAN/12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM/12Z NAM/12Z UKMET.

...SOUTHEAST MA...

ONSHORE FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE IN
SOUTHEAST MA LEADING TO LIGHT SNOWFALL ON MON.
THE LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE SHOWN IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
12Z NAM CONUS NEST...CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...AND NSSL WRF.  MANUAL
QPF USED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 496331 494330 492332 491331 489331 487332 485334 483334
      482335 481335 480334 478333 476333 475332 473332 472331
      470330 468330 467329 465329 463328 462328 460327 458326
      457326 455326
 0.01 514284 508282 505278 502264 499258 497254 490251 484249
      478247 474244 463237 452233 438230 433229 429231 426231
      423229 419225 415221 410220 399221 393221 389222 378226
      371231 367237 366242 368248 367255 365264 362270 360272
      360275 359280 360283 364285 368290 375295 382298 388301
 0.01 445322 444321 442320 440319 439318 437318 435317 434316
      432315 430315 429314 427314 425313 424313 422312 420312
      418312 417311 415310 413310
 0.01 521881 519878 519872 517865 515859 513856 511854 503849
      493847 490847 488845 481843 477836 474833 474828 472823
      468818 462817 457813 454811 452807 450804 450800 444789
      437781 434778 430776 420785 418787 414788 409794 395796
      391810 389813 389817 386822 384828 382830 380833 378837
      377844 375849 372853 368859 365866 362879 360887 359894
      358903 358908 360912 361931 361938 363944 363952 364960
      368972 370976 372985 374992 378999 383011 386018 387021
      384024 379028 377030 374028 367033 360038 356044 352049
      353054 357056 367050 372051 374055 375058 378058 382058
      385057 388059 389064 391066 394066 398062 402060 407063
      415069 419067 421066 422069 424084 427089 432093 440094
      444096 446098 449105 452112 459113 464110 467110 470112
      470120 471128 474131 478134 481135 483133 494141 497143
      499144 504144 507139 505138 507136 497125 493118 491112
      485100 483095 481089 475079 462055 455044 452037 449031
      441019 438014 436008 431999 428994 426992 426987 424984
      424980 421975 418969 421964 426959 431957 443947 449945
      453941 460940 465938 471937 474940 478945 482949 485946
      487939 487932 489926 492921 498918 502914 507911 512905
      513900 516895 519888 521881
 0.01 471210 469208 469207 468207 466207 464208 462208 464209
      466209 467210 469210 470210 471210
 0.01 438688 435685 432688 426693 423692 423687 426681 429671
      432663 433659 431654 422656 412660 407665 399676 370696
      363701 358706 353710 348716 343720 340723 336723 327724
      320726 320728 322731 321734 318736 313741 305750 298758
      291763 274768 270769 267771 262776 258781 252785 238795
      235797 233799 230808 230813 230818 231822 233825 236826
      237824 239817 245813 251810 260805 266806 271807 279808
      287809 300803 307799 314794 326784 336772 346763 352758
      359753 374747 380718 383715 388713 394707 398700 403693
      410689 413687 416688 417690 418696 417700 414701 412705
      412709 415715 420714 423711 431704 435696 438688
 0.01 336962 336947 334943 330940 325941 323945 321958 320965
      319971 315984 315988 315992 316994 318999 324999 326995
      327988 332978 334973 334967 336962
 0.01 261978 259973 255969 250966 246963 241961 235959 232963
      233970 238973 242978 248979 255979 261978
 0.25 502309 502304 501300 497297 486284 483278 479272 473267
      466263 455256 451253 447252 440253 433252 426250 418249
      410249 406247 404243 402238 398240 398246 397252 396258
      393261 388264 386265 384270 384275 385277 391282 397285
      404289 413293 426298 434301 441299 452297 456297 460300
      465305 470309 475311 483313 487316 492316 497313 502309
 0.25 488889 489884 488879 487876 485874 484872 482869 481867
      479870 478872 478877 478882 480884 481889 483892 484892
      487890 488889
 0.25 473882 467873 466864 462860 459856 455856 451857 447859
      440859 427857 421860 417865 418869 419874 420877 428884
      437890 444890 449889 462886 473882
 0.25 371727 370724 366725 361730 355734 345735 338738 331743
      327747 322754 314764 310770 312774 315776 321772 327767
      339759 351750 355746 362742 366740 368737 371729 371727
 0.25 294797 294792 291789 290784 286784 282786 278791 269792
      262794 258797 261798 266800 274802 281803 290801 294797
 0.50 455281 454271 452265 448262 444261 437262 430261 423261
      417264 415268 417271 423277 432280 440282 447282 454281
      455281
 0.50 342750 343748 341747 339747 338748 336749 336751 338752
      340751 342751 342750

$$





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