Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150742
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 15/1200 UTC THRU APR 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...EASTERN U.S....

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASOCTD WITH THE
ADVANCING CNTRL U.S. UPPER TROF AND SHOULD SUSTAIN A WIDESPREAD
HVY RNFL EVENT ACROSS THE ERN U.S.  INCRSG JET DYNAMICS AND STG
HGT FALLS WILL BE AVBL TO TAP AMPLE MSTR EMBEDDED ALONG A STRONG
N/S BAROCLINIC ZONE WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY EWD...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...ACROSS THE REGION INDUCING WIDESPREAD MDT TO HVY RNFL
TOTALS.  MSTR AVBLTY SHOULD BE NO ISSUE AS DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW
RESULTS IN A STG NWD MSTR FLUX TO SUPPORT THE EVENT.  MODEL QPFS
SIMILAR THOUGH THE GFS ON THE WHOLE IS FASTER THAN THE
PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE WITH WORKING THE PCPN EWD PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLC STATES/SRN MID ATLC REGION.  STAYED
CLOSER TO THE SLOWER UKMET/12Z ECMWF/GEM REGIONAL SOLUTIONS ON THE
TIMING OF THE PCPN EVENT.  THE UKMET DID A VRY GOOD JOB YDA
HANDLING THE HVY CNVCTV RAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THIS MODEL
AGAIN FAVORS A PD OF HVY RAINS THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN ACROSS NRN FL
EARLY IN THE PD.  STAYED WITH ITS SCENARIO FOR NOW WHICH SEEMS
SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS MODEL LLVL CNVGNC FIELDS AS WELL AS AN AXIS
OF HI PWS SEEN IMPINGING ON THE AREA.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

VERY PROGRESSIVE WLY FLOW WILL BRING ONE SHRTWV FM PAC NW TO THE
NRN PLAINS DURING THE PD ACCOMPANIED WITH GNLY LGT PCPN
TOTALS..WITH E SLOPES OF THE NRN ROCKIES SEEING TOTALS ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW.  WAA PATTERN SETS OVR THE PAC NW DURING THE 2ND HALF
OF THE PD AS STRENGTHENING JET DYNAMICS..A WEAK IMPULSE AND
ONSHORE FLOW COMBINE TO INCREASE SHWR ACTVTY.

DAY 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CASCADES INTO THE
BITTERROOTS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DECLINE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z ECMWF
WITH ITS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION AND THE 00Z
GFS WITH ITS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION ADEQUATELY
REPRESENT THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH THIS PARTICULAR
SYSTEM...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION PREFERRED UNTIL THE SPREAD
NARROWS AND/OR OTHER SOLUTIONS WHICH PRESENTLY LIE NEAR THE
CONSENSUS BEGIN TO SHIFT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.  THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT BEHIND THE TROUGH`S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FAVOR BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TOTALS OF 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CASCADES INTO THE BITTERROOTS.

...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
MOVES INLAND IN 2 PORTIONS...WITH ONE PORTION CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INDUCING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS LATER TODAY...WHILE A SECOND PORTION CROSSES THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INDUCES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HELP TO
COMPENSATE FOR THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN A BROADER AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
FORMED THROUGH UPSLOPE FLOW AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  SMALL CLUSTERS OF RAIN/SHOWERS MAY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE PLAINS...PARTICULARLY AHEAD AND
IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE GEFS MEAN/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH SOME AMPLITUDE AND SPATIAL ENHANCEMENTS
FROM THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF TO BALANCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH A NEED
FOR SPECIFICS.

...EASTERN GULF COAST...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ABOVE A MOIST RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP TO FORCE A BROAD REGIME OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE THAT SHOULD RELEASE ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER
THE GULF AS WELL AS INCREASE THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.  THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS PARTICULARLY HIGH
FOR THIS EVENT WITH THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN REPRESENTING THE FAST
HALF OF THE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET REPRESENTING THE SLOW
HALF OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER TOTALS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA THAN FORECAST IF
SOME OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT.  DUE TO THE HIGH SPREAD
AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE MESOSCALE...HAVE USED AN INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION THAT REPRESENTS A MIX OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ALONG
WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS UNTIL THE SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY BEGIN TO REDUCE.

KORTY/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 540205 540197 542190 543187 544181 544177 543173 536158
      529143 523131 517119 512115 507112 499110 493104 490101
      487095 484087 480081 473069 465055 465050 463048 461040
      456027 454018 455012 458004 463999 468997 473000 479015
      487027 497039 503049 508046 509037 509025 507020 504013
      501006 498000 495994 489980 487969 485962 482954 479946
      474933 467921 464915 459910 453908 450906 446906 443906
      441908 440914 439925 440937 440942 441945 442955 443961
      442967 441971 438973 431980 429983 428989 427997 425005
      425016 424028 424039 427042 434044 437053 437061 425080
      423079 422082 421084 421089 424096 428101 423104 421107
      422110 428113 428123 432121 436117 439117 441120 441124
      440127 440134 441137 443137 446138 447141 451147 452149
      456151 459155 460158 463160 466167 467172 470173 472171
      475170 481175 484181 489183 492184 493189 491193 491198
      485203 471206 467209 460209 443223 444226 448227 452228
      454230 445238 445245 451249 455250 459253 462258 464257
      467259 473264 478270 482276 485282 491288 494290 497291
      500293 506295 510292 512280 512274 512271 516272 518268
      519263 517259 514253 512244 512233 505220 501213 500209
      502204 504197 506197 508199 523221 533230
 0.01 524701 523694 521689 520681 517676 515671 512667 506653
      502645 495641 486639 478634 474631 471630 461630 452634
      442641 433647 425652 417658 407664 391675 381680 372686
      362692 353698 340711 333717 327724 320731 317735 315741
      312751 310755 306758 297762 288766 280770 271776 263781
      256789 254793 250795 242801 238809 235818 239825 241829
      245833 253838 262842 271845 268855 265863 269874 274880
      279883 283884 292881 302875 310870 318865 328862 333863
      337865 348864 353863 357860 365854 373848 389838 398833
      407829 415824 425820 450817 458812 463809 467806 474801
      482796 489790 493787 496782 499778 501773 506763 513742
      518732 520726 521720 523709 524701
 0.01 413120 413115 412115 408114 407110 409105 407102 406105
      402108 397103 395105 396108 394112 396115 399116 401118
      404123 408121 413120
 0.01 415071 413067 416064 413060 409058 405055 399055 393061
      389063 384063 383064 387068 385072 388077 389082 393084
      397089 399087 402082 405079 409076 413074 415071
 0.25 525177 526171 524166 521159 517153 512147 507142 500138
      494133 490129 483124 477121 472123 472133 473136 477139
      483142 488147 494151 501155 504157 507160 511167 516172
      525177
 0.25 502275 502264 502262 500259 495257 491254 490247 487243
      484240 476231 472233 469236 464238 466243 475250 485255
      490265 493269 497273 500276 502275
 0.25 507711 506701 501690 497681 493672 473646 467643 459644
      451647 443652 428663 416674 403683 395688 388693 374704
      362714 338737 333742 329748 324756 319763 315768 309773
      305776 303780 302784 303791 302794 298796 292801 279811
      273815 267820 269825 271828 274831 278834 280836 282840
      281850 281861 282866 286867 292864 300860 307856 314851
      320847 328843 336841 345841 352839 359834 362831 366831
      370831 374829 386820 398809 403804 403800 404798 407795
      414791 422786 438782 456774 462771 469766 482754 487747
      494741 499736 504729 507720 507711
 0.25 496226 496221 494218 493213 489211 483208 477210 471213
      465216 460220 461224 465224 471222 473221 478221 482223
      485223 489222 491224 496226
 0.25 474114 476109 475104 475101 474098 472094 471091 468093
      466095 465099 463102 462104 462109 463112 466113 467115
      471116 472115 474114
 0.25 397805 396804 394804 393805 394806 396805 397805
 0.25 391808 389807 388808 389809 391808 391808
 0.25 267798 266797 265796 264796 263796 262798 262799 263799
      264799 266798 267798
 0.50 497711 495702 491693 482677 478670 474659 470653 463650
      457651 449655 442660 434666 423677 410687 383705 377709
      372714 367721 362727 356732 350736 344741 338748 334754
      330762 324775 322784 322787 324791 326793 328795 327798
      327803 325807 324812 322816 320818 316818 313817 314813
      314811 311809 308809 301811 291813 284817 278822 278826
      280829 285834 288842 287850 286857 287860 289860 292858
      300855 307851 319843 325839 333836 342834 349831 361820
      372808 383798 394789 401784 409780 425773 438765 450757
      465748 471743 476737 489727 495720 497715 497711
 0.50 494145 493142 492139 491137 487134 486133 483131 481130
      479130 480132 482135 484137 485139 487141 489144 491147
      494145
 0.50 480244 480242 480241 478239 478238 477237 475236 474236
      473237 472239 473241 474242 475243 476244 477246 478246
      479245 480244
 0.50 483217 483214 482213 481212 479212 478213 477213 475214
      474214 473215 472215 471216 471217 473217 475217 476217
      477217 478217 480217 482218 483217
 1.00 472713 473709 472705 468699 465695 463693 464688 468678
      468674 467670 464663 460661 455663 445670 435677 428684
      420691 410698 401704 391710 387713 383718 379722 374725
      367734 358740 351747 344755 341761 341768 345779 348783
      350785 350789 348796 346801 334819 332823 331829 334830
      337829 342827 351820 358812 364804 372796 388782 396775
      402773 407770 418764 423761 427758 434751 438748 442742
      450735 458729 468722 471718 472713
 1.00 313828 307827 302826 296824 292825 290826 290831 291835
      292841 292847 293849 296849 300846 305842 308837 311833
      313828
 1.50 450689 447688 444691 437697 434700 432698 433694 431694
      424697 416701 401711 396715 392723 381734 377742 372749
      369751 364752 358756 355759 353762 355766 358768 368768
      372774 375776 377775 385770 391764 394762 393759 393750
      395746 399743 407744 410745 409749 405756 404760 408760
      414755 419750 425744 432739 435737 437732 442727 449722
      447719 443718 440718 436715 436705 440700 443695 450689
 1.50 358805 356805 354805 353806 352806 351807 349809 348811
      347811 346813 346814 348813 349813 350813 352813 353811
      354810 355808 356807 358805
 2.00 417717 416715 415715 414715 413715 411717 410718 409719
      410720 411719 413719 415718 417717 417717
 2.00 414727 412725 411727 413728 414727

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 531176 530169 530159 531153 529150 525146 517138 514135
      512128 510122 507116 505109 502102 497092 494087 492081
      489076 486078 476086 466081 460072 455061 452044 451039
      449033 447029 440027 437023 433027 430027 428030 424034
      422036 423038 426042 429048 430054 432069 432074 430078
      427083 425084 424088 426092 432102 436106 440109 443117
      444123 446137 447144 446152 446160 447168 444176 441183
      443192 449193 453196 468176 477173 482174 488177 493179
      498183 503188 506193 511197 514200 517198 520194 527183
      531176
 0.01 518273 520262 519252 516238 513231 510225 502215 498210
      491207 485206 480206 468210 463212 458214 447217 441218
      438218 436220 435223 437226 438229 439234 435239 434242
      436243 444245 450246 456247 458249 459254 459263 460271
      465282 475293 484299 492303 498303 501301 505296 513284
      518273
 0.01 485889 486875 485860 480842 476835 468832 461834 456839
      450844 444851 436863 438871 441874 443879 442888 441892
      437894 434896 432899 431903 430910 431916 429920 425926
      421933 421946 424951 426954 429957 438957 443957 443961
      440969 438976 438983 439986 442988 447988 452984 455979
      464963 471949 475940 477930 478920 480912 485889
 0.01 419166 420157 421147 421143 420142 415144 409145 405146
      404156 407156 410154 412155 413162 415167 419166
 0.01 414115 414111 411108 410098 408098 405100 404104 401106
      396110 389112 382115 379117 378121 382123 386124 392120
      399118 408119 413116 414115
 0.01 412073 412065 409061 405053 402042 396036 390027 384021
      381017 377014 374012 369012 359016 354020 351025 350031
      351042 354052 357056 361057 370057 375059 376061 375063
      371066 372071 374073 376076 375080 379083 384084 393082
      402079 410075 412073
 0.01 263798 259798 255800 251802 248804 245808 244813 245815
      248819 248816 250812 252809 255806 259803 261801 263798
 0.25 505271 506248 507236 505229 501221 495216 488212 482211
      474212 468214 462216 459217 458222 464223 467225 468229
      467236 469244 476258 480265 486270 494272 499270 505271
 0.25 519154 516148 511144 507141 503137 499134 494133 494140
      495148 499152 505155 510158 514160 518156 519154
 0.25 485225 484222 483221 481221 479220 478220 478221 476222
      475224 475226 477227 478227 480228 480229 482227 483227
      484226 485225
 0.25 480130 479127 476124 472122 475109 474101 471096 469089
      464090 460091 457090 452087 449086 446088 442091 441094
      442097 445101 450105 456106 461111 464116 467121 469128
      469131 473131 474129 478131 480130
 0.25 473161 474151 470143 465143 463144 461148 460153 458165
      453170 451173 451177 453180 457181 460178 461174 461171
      463168 468164 473161
 0.25 480882 480873 479864 476855 473851 468851 463856 460862
      459869 457879 453890 451894 448898 445902 443909 443921
      444926 447930 455933 457937 456941 455947 452959 453962
      455961 459957 463949 468939 469934 470927 471921 472914
      475904 478892 480882
 0.25 455221 454219 452219 451220 450220 448221 447221 445221
      444223 444225 446225 448225 449224 450224 451223 453223
      455221
 0.25 451080 451078 451075 450073 450072 449070 448070 447068
      446068 445067 443066 442067 441067 440069 440072 441074
      441075 442077 443077 444079 445080 446080 447081 449081
      451080
 0.25 444041 444038 444036 443035 442034 440036 439038 439040
      440041 441043 443042 444041
 0.25 397057 398052 397048 394043 389041 383039 376038 369039
      367043 368050 374053 379055 384058 389061 395059 397057
 0.50 492256 493253 492251 492250 491249 489248 488247 486247
      485248 486249 486251 487252 488254 488255 490256 491256
      492256
 0.50 475882 476873 474865 472863 469866 465878 460888 458893
      455898 451901 449906 449910 450913 453918 457921 461920
      467912 472900 474887 475882
 0.50 394052 394048 392046 389045 387045 383045 381045 378046
      377049 379051 381052 384054 386055 390056 393055 394052

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 536180 536174 535167 534155 533144 530133 530125 528118
      528105 523083 520075 515066 510059 505054 497049 496043
      497038 497031 496027 493023 490019 487015 484014 478007
      474998 471989 469982 467978 463976 459976 453982 450991
      452999 456008 461016 466021 469026 471031 467041 467047
      468052 471058 473061 480102 478117 475121 472118 467117
      463117 460121 457125 451130 444135 440143 436153 436157
      437160 439163 440169 438173 435174 431176 429173 428163
      427158 422156 418156 415160 413165 414168 416172 416177
      417182 416188 412198 418205 422209 425211 427212 427216
      425218 418225 414232 412236 412240 416249 424254 427257
      432258 437258 441259 449258 455266 460271 463274 467277
      472280 477282 486283 490284 494283 500280 506274 511265
      515258 516251 516246 520233 524220 529213 531209 531205
      529197 530193 531190 536180
 0.01 496858 495842 494834 492828 488820 485816 481814 478812
      473812 467813 461816 459816 458813 460808 462803 462795
      459790 457792 451799 446807 442817 433840 425857 418879
      409896 398912 394915 388917 382918 378919 373920 369922
      360926 353930 346935 338944 335955 334963 335969 339972
      348974 358971 360970 362972 360976 358988 361998 367008
      369012 370017 371024 371028 370032 367036 364038 360040
      356044 356049 358052 361054 367054 375051 384056 388059
      392058 399058 404056 406053 406049 403042 399041 392036
      391032 392029 395025 397021 397015 397000 394988 392982
      392975 395964 398954 400947 402944 406935 415928 419918
      423908 426898 432875 440857 448837 451831 455835 461842
      464846 466851 469855 470863 468876 466886 467892 470895
      474894 480890 485884 491874 494866 496858
 0.01 451078 452076 451075 450073 448072 446072 445070 443069
      441069 440072 439072 440072 441072 443074 443075 444075
      446077 448078 449078 451078 451078
 0.01 445041 445038 445036 443034 442035 440035 440036 438038
      439040 440041 441043 443043 445041 445041
 0.01 313871 312862 310854 305840 297830 287823 279824 276826
      274828 271834 271843 276857 278863 282869 289879 298887
      302887 305886 309880 313871
 0.01 299813 299808 296805 290801 277797 270796 262796 256798
      250802 245808 243810 243815 244819 246821 251817 256817
      258819 263823 267823 270821 271817 269814 264810 262806
      267805 274807 280810 293816 297815 299813
 0.25 517198 518194 518189 516182 511170 505161 497153 488147
      477142 466139 455138 450139 446141 442147 440153 440157
      443159 446163 447165 447171 445177 442183 441187 442190
      445194 449192 456184 463174 473176 482183 489190 494193
      501195 509199 514200 517198
 0.25 508248 510241 509235 507224 504215 501211 498208 493205
      489203 481206 474210 467212 451216 447217 444220 444225
      447229 455231 458234 459239 465245 471253 477259 485266
      492269 496269 500266 502264 504258 508248
 0.25 385002 386997 385993 383988 380983 377977 373972 368976
      367978 367983 370987 372994 374999 378004 381005 384004
      385002
 0.25 301863 301857 300851 298847 296844 292841 289841 286843
      284848 285852 287856 289860 292864 295868 299868 301864
      301863
 0.50 505242 506233 504226 501219 496213 490211 484210 472213
      461217 449219 447220 446223 451225 465224 479226 484230
      489235 494239 502243 505242
 0.50 504179 503170 499165 494161 487157 475154 470153 464154
      456162 452167 449175 449179 453180 456174 460167 464162
      475170 481174 485179 491183 499183 504179

$$




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