Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
000
FXUS04 KWBC 201856
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 21/0000 UTC THRU JUL 22/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTH DAKOTA/UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

ANOTHER COMPLEX SITUATION IS IN PLAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING UP AND OVER THE
SPRAWLING CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE SHOULD IGNITE CONVECTION IN THE
PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MUCAPES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG
ACROSS ND/MN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ALSO SOME CAPPING ISSUES WHICH
MAY BE PRESENT WHICH COULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS WELL TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
MEANWHILE...THE 12Z/00Z CAMS SHOW A MIXED BAG OF FORECASTS
FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/ADJACENT
LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLAY AND THE INCONSISTENCIES
IN THEIR RUN-TO-RUN SOLUTIONS...DOWNPLAYED THIS IDEA AND WILL LET
THE AFTERNOON SHIFT RE-ASSESS.



...SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
22/0000Z. A MOIST/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ACTIVITY
MAXIMIZING DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK INSOLATION. CELL MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW WITH MULTIPLE MERGERS LIKELY WHICH MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO
BE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER
RANDOMLY ORIENTED WITH COVERAGE WINDING DOWN BEYOND 00Z. THE QPF
WAS DERIVED PARTLY FROM CONTINUITY AS WELL AS SOME OF THE RECENT
ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES.


...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS/HIGH PLAINS...

WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE ANCHORING THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL U.S...ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RECENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS MOVING INTO THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS
MOISTURE LADEN AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM AZ/NM UP INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
WHERE LOCAL OROGRAPHICS WILL LEAD TO MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS. ENDED
UP FAVORING QPF CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AS LITTLE
CHANGED BETWEEN MODEL CYCLES.


...GULF COAST/FL...

CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE OF FL WILL SUPPORT
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS FLOW REGIME FAVORS A
WESTWARD PUSH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE EASTERN
GULF OF MX. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PWATS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. OVERALL...EXPECT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST CELLS WITH A BETTER FOCUS
ALONG ANY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OR COLLIDING BOUNDARIES. GIVEN
THE HIGH NATURE OF FFG VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY OUTLOOK AREA IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST. WPC TOOK A
CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH SOME DETAIL ADDED VIA 12Z CAMS.



RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 22/00Z
 0.01 505237 505231 504228 502224 497215 495207 494201 493196
      488195 484197 481201 473206 465210 458216 452217 447215
      442216 441220 443223 446224 452226 460224 470222 473222
      475224 472229 471239 475242 479244 482242 483237 483234
      480228 476225 479222 486224 489228 491232 496236 502238
      505237
 0.01 510962 511952 511944 509928 509921 507915 503905 498896
      497891 498887 502877 504866 505857 503846 498837 492832
      483820 479812 475803 469792 466788 462786 458785 455787
      447793 440810 435816 426821 420825 415830 405841 395855
      391863 388872 388877 389879 392882 394888 397892 400894
      405896 415896 420898 423898 435897 439899 441903 444912
      445918 446922 446937 445942 445949 442963 436976 433979
      430981 424985 415991 408998 403006 401011 400017 398022
      396025 393029 389031 387035 384037 377036 374038 371036
      366028 365025 362025 357031 351037 347044 343050 342053
      339053 334053 330053 329055 326057 330060 336061 341063
      345064 348066 346069 343070 340068 336070 332070 321069
      311068 301069 295072 289077 287079 283078 277078 273071
      269069 266066 262065 260062 260057 263056 264054 254039
      258049 257052 254050 248050 249054 246057 243056 241057
      240062 242064 246066 249069 252071 254073 253075 247071
      241070 245077 250079 252081 255089 258091 263092 267096
      267098 264098 261098 260100 263103 269105 273107 278114
      286119 291125 295126 298129 303130 307129 315129 314126
      317127 324128 327126 327121 329119 331119 335122 341128
      348133 349137 356138 361139 365135 369128 370119 370115
      372115 373121 373127 374130 374133 376133 378130 386125
      389122 392120 397114 400111 405112 409108 411105 411100
      409097 405095 400093 401090 403089 407089 409086 415078
      419074 420066 419060 417058 417054 420051 420045 420040
      425038 435038 440039 443041 443036 442033 438025 436021
      437015 439007 443000 448995 452989 454983 455976 455968
      456962 457955 458957 459962 460964 460969 460977 457992
      456998 456006 456020 459028 462036 467043 470046 474044
      479039 484031 491016 495008 498000 502991 506980 509970
      510962
 0.01 428061 429058 428056 427055 425053 424056 423058 423060
      423062 424063 426063 428061 428061
 0.01 387102 388100 387098 385099 385102 386103 387102
 0.01 378107 377105 375104 374105 373105 373107 375108 377109
      378107
 0.01 381891 379880 376873 367863 368831 371822 370810 365794
      364785 363780 364775 362756 358750 353749 349751 347754
      343754 338755 337758 328770 325774 322780 321784 319788
      315794 310799 306805 304807 299808 295807 293804 292801
      290799 285796 279790 272788 266785 260784 253786 247788
      237797 235800 235806 236816 238823 243829 247833 253836
      259840 264840 268837 268833 270829 274830 278836 282840
      287843 290851 295866 294876 291885 288892 286899 286906
      287913 293927 294931 295937 298944 304946 310942 315937
      316935 319932 332928 339924 346921 356913 366906 373907
      378904 381891
 0.01 306121 301116 296111 292105 288100 285093 281091 278092
      282097 287102 288110 292115 299119 302121 306121
 0.01 230983 231995 232003 238008 244010 258003 265999 270995
      272986 270978 268976 268971 269962 270957 271952 269943
      265935 259931 252931 246937 238950 234957 231963 231965
 0.25 499952 500943 499935 497926 492919 489909 488903 488895
      488881 489870 489861 485849 481839 475823 470812 465806
      460805 455807 451814 447823 447836 446847 443854 436861
      434865 435871 437879 441888 447894 453899 457902 459906
      460918 462923 464927 468929 469933 471943 474952 474961
      474966 473980 473992 474996 477999 481999 484996 488987
      495970 498960 499952
 0.25 403072 402068 403065 400060 397055 392050 389049 387051
      385054 383054 381051 379051 381056 382059 381061 379062
      373061 368059 366061 366064 369066 371068 374071 374075
      372081 373085 377089 381085 384086 385088 386091 389091
      391089 391086 393079 395077 399077 402074 403072
 0.25 388084 389082 389079 389077 389075 388074 387074 386074
      385075 384076 383079 383081 384083 385083 386084 388084
      388084
 0.25 368108 368103 365099 365096 368093 368090 366088 362087
      359087 358093 362096 361101 362107 366109 368108
 0.25 362119 361117 360116 358118 359119 361119 362119
 0.25 362065 361063 359064 358065 359065 360067 362065
 0.25 356118 352113 346110 345104 344096 340092 337093 337097
      340102 341109 342113 343118 346118 348116 352118 356118
 0.25 358830 358822 356818 348816 344809 340803 338796 339790
      341781 341778 340774 335775 333778 320810 318815 315819
      311821 306822 289826 290830 293832 299837 300841 299846
      300855 304865 306870 306876 304884 300892 295900 295910
      297919 302924 306924 309921 314915 318909 326906 330903
      331898 331888 329884 329878 330866 332855 334847 338845
      341847 347846 352842 355837 358830
 0.25 337113 337112 336110 336108 335107 334106 334105 332104
      330103 329105 330107 331109 332110 333112 335114 336114
      337113
 0.25 283823 281821 279820 277821 277822 276822 275824 276824
      278826 280826 282826 283825 283824 283823
 0.25 274812 273807 271806 267803 263799 258799 254803 250806
      247811 249814 257815 261817 265818 268817 272814 274812
 0.25 271091 272089 271087 269088 269089 268091 269092 271093
      271091
 0.25 257974 257969 255966 252961 245959 241960 239963 235969
      234977 236985 238992 244997 251995 255990 256985 255982
      257975 257974
 0.50 493944 492939 489935 486933 483937 481942 480947 480954
      480962 481969 482968 484964 486959 488954 490949 492946
      493944
 0.50 483924 481894 482880 482871 482864 476840 472828 469823
      466821 462818 459818 456820 454823 453828 455842 453855
      448862 444871 443879 445884 451890 456892 459896 463903
      467908 470911 473915 474920 476926 479929 482926 483924
 0.50 381076 383074 382072 382069 381067 380066 379067 379069
      379071 378073 377076 377078 376080 375082 377083 378083
      379081 379080 380078 381076 381076
 0.50 364090 362089 361089 362091 364091 364090
 0.50 336817 335813 332809 328809 326812 324816 322821 321825
      323829 327831 329830 332826 334823 336818 336817
 0.50 319858 319853 318849 318847 316844 314842 312841 310841
      308844 307846 306850 306854 308858 309859 311856 312856
      314858 317859 319858
 0.50 251990 250985 247982 247978 248976 249972 247968 243966
      239968 237972 237976 239980 240986 241990 244992 248992
      251990
 1.00 472860 471850 469843 467836 464833 464836 463847 460856
      457863 455872 456876 458879 461881 464882 468875 471868
      472860

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.