Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171854
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 18/0000 UTC THRU APR 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

GOOD AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC
HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED CONCENTRATED AREA OF FRONTAL BAND
PRECIPITATION---CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST---WILL
PUSH INLAND EARLY DAY 1---WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE ONSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE.  OVERALL---MODEL QPFS ARE
SIMILAR DAY 1---WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION
TOTALS IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS FROM NORTHERN ID/NORTHWEST
MT---FAR NORTHEAST OREGON AND THROUGH THE WA AND NORTHERN OREGON
CASCADES.

LOWER GREAT LAKES

THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE RECENT SNOWSTORM TO AFFECT
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD
TROUGH THE LOWER LAKES DAY 1 AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
ONTARIO AND QB.  LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT AND
OVERALL WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE---IN THE
.10-.25" RANGE.


FAR SOUTHEAST LA---FAR SOUTHERN MS---FAR SOUTHERN AL---FL
PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA

AN INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
OVERALL---MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO---WITH
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING ENHANCING CONVECTION OFF
THE LA COAST.  THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DOWNSTREAM PUSH OF THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ASHORE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA---AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE SPEED AT WHICH PRECIP PUSHES DOWNSTREAM.  AT THE
MOMENT---WPC LEANED TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF WHICH WAS IN
BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.  IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY---THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH--RAISING PW
VALUES TO 2 TO 2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS---EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE---NORTH FL AND INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  THE
INCREASING PWS AND STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
PERIOD FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LA---EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MS--FAR SOUTHERN AL---THE FL PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FL.  THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR TO THE WEST THE HEAVIEST RAINS
DEVELOP---WITH A CLUSTER OF MODELS---INCLUDING THE CMC
GEM---ECMWF---GFS AND PARALLEL HI RES ARW & NMM FARTHER WEST THAN
THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL HI RES ARW/NMM.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD
THE FARTHER WESTWARD SOLUTIONS---ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE QPF AXES IS LOWER THAN FOR POINTS FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM.  OTHERWISE---THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS
PERIOD ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF
1-2"+ AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"+.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 557086 558081 556078 553072 549061 545049 543041 539034
      534026 527016 524012 520007 511998 506995 500995 498000
      498008 500023 500034 500046 500050 498054 496057 492062
      487065 484069 480072 471083 469089 465094 462098 458100
      452095 447094 440091 434093 431090 428087 424088 425094
      427099 422102 420105 420109 409130 404135 400141 391146
      389152 386155 377166 377172 373177 367178 363179 361184
      366188 374194 384200 391203 393200 392198 387189 384186
      383182 384177 389174 395173 402162 408151 413141 419128
      421131 422136 424136 437119 441117 445121 447123 446129
      444132 441134 438134 436136 435143 435149 434156 427167
      419175 406192 404198 403208 407213 409218 407225 404234
      404241 409242 413243 415246 420248 428250 430249 435250
      442252 447252 452252 458252 469252 475253 480253 487255
      491260 493264 496270 499275 501276 504276 506272 510266
      515256 522245 527231 530224 532214 536211 538204 539200
      540197 542190 541182 536178 533173 531170 530165 531154
      533147 537133 542118 545113 549110 552106 553103 554098
      556090 557086
 0.01 522128 522123 520122 515117 506109 498101 494097 492094
      489096 484096 480100 477101 476104 475108 476111 474119
      473121 475122 485129 489133 493138 499140 501139 502134
      503132 506131 513131 518131 522128
 0.01 517724 516715 514712 506706 502705 495706 489713 473727
      459741 446758 442762 439767 435775 431785 425796 425801
      426806 421815 417827 415832 414838 413846 410851 406859
      401868 400871 400875 400883 401888 402892 404892 408889
      411885 417878 424869 429862 435852 440843 445832 454812
      460804 466795 481782 494764 501756 506748 513736 517724
 0.01 513843 511834 507828 497824 489825 485826 484829 482832
      482835 483847 482850 482856 482867 483889 487894 488897
      492896 493899 496896 498896 501893 505888 506880 509873
      511864 513843 513843
 0.01 474204 473199 470195 462194 459196 455199 449203 445204
      440203 437204 434208 432215 436216 443215 449213 457210
      464208 469208 472206 474204
 0.01 453081 451078 450075 448073 446072 445070 442067 440067
      440069 440072 443074 444077 446077 448080 451080 453081
 0.01 442181 443174 439171 433177 429185 423193 418199 413208
      412210 414212 419211 419204 421202 425202 427202 428199
      433191 438183 442181
 0.01 422126 423124 421123 420124 420126 421128 422126
 0.01 367820 366814 364813 359813 357812 354810 353806 349796
      347776 346770 344766 341763 337762 332765 326768 314777
      298777 291779 285783 275792 272799 270802 270807 269812
      267814 262820 254830 244839 237844 232848 230852 230856
      232858 233862 233870 237876 242880 241887 243893 243897
      241901 235915 235922 241927 247927 252923 255921 259921
      265924 272927 275929 280929 286925 290921 298911 303911
      307913 311919 316924 320924 323927 328930 331932 335932
      341929 346925 352921 358914 367903 369895 368893 363894
      339910 330912 325907 324902 325897 328891 333877 340861
      343855 349851 354845 358839 363828 367820
 0.01 348993 348982 344973 336962 333960 329962 326963 323966
      321968 319972 319977 317981 311982 306983 304985 298990
      294992 293995 291999 291005 294012 294018 297019 303016
      310011 315007 321002 325000 328999 332998 338998 342997
      346995 348993
 0.25 536077 537067 536059 534050 531045 525035 519024 514020
      510024 511042 508050 506058 510063 514067 518072 521078
      524083 529086 532086 534084 536077
 0.25 520197 522186 520176 517170 516161 511157 507151 502150
      498149 496146 489136 483131 478129 471128 470132 470138
      472140 477141 480141 483143 486149 486152 484154 480154
      476153 471148 468143 465140 462141 457145 453149 450154
      450163 449168 448173 453179 460182 463178 461176 458176
      457172 458167 460165 467167 476167 480172 491180 496186
      500190 506192 512196 517199 520197
 0.25 506240 507233 505229 502220 498212 495209 491208 484207
      476209 470212 463214 456216 450220 441219 439223 441225
      448224 452223 455222 462227 469224 472221 475221 484223
      488226 491229 495236 497239 501243 505242 506240
 0.25 494156 494153 494156 494156
 0.25 479241 479239 479237 478236 478234 476233 474232 473234
      472234 471236 471238 472239 473240 475241 476242 478242
      479241
 0.25 474760 474756 473753 468754 462763 456771 451781 446790
      442800 441807 443807 449799 456790 462781 468772 473763
      474760
 0.25 446111 446109 446107 445106 444104 443102 441101 439101
      437102 436102 436105 436107 437108 438110 440111 442111
      443112 445112 446111
 0.25 437820 438818 437818 436820 435821 436821 437820 437820
 0.25 350837 350831 348829 342829 339826 338821 337813 339803
      338797 336793 333790 329788 323786 316788 308791 300794
      293799 281809 277816 274824 264835 259841 256847 252853
      250857 251863 253866 257868 263872 262879 259887 258892
      260895 267899 274902 282905 292904 300902 308899 315894
      318889 321880 325873 328864 332858 338852 345845 350837
 0.50 492219 493215 491212 488211 484210 481210 479210 476211
      474214 475217 478218 481219 485220 488221 490220 492219
 0.50 497172 496170 495169 494168 493167 491166 490165 488164
      487164 486165 485166 486169 487171 488172 489173 490173
      492173 494174 495172 497172
 0.50 470158 471155 471153 471152 470150 469149 468147 466146
      464145 463146 463147 462148 461151 461153 462155 462156
      463157 465158 466159 468159 470158 470158
 0.50 336843 332809 330802 326798 320797 312798 306799 299802
      295805 289810 283819 276829 263848 260854 260859 270867
      268879 271886 274890 283896 290899 297898 304897 310895
      313891 316885 319879 321871 322865 326860 332851 336843
 1.00 326835 326829 325821 323810 322805 318804 315805 306808
      297813 291820 285827 280834 277837 275842 275855 276861
      278866 275875 286889 289892 294893 306893 309891 312887
      314877 317865 320855 324847 326836 326835
 1.50 319840 320830 318819 315811 312810 308811 301815 296819
      291824 287829 284836 283841 283846 285856 285866 286877
      290883 295887 302890 307890 309886 311882 312875 313864
      317849 319840
 2.00 314845 315841 314835 314826 312817 310815 306815 300818
      296822 292827 289833 289837 290841 292847 292864 296880
      299885 302886 305886 308881 310873 311866 311857 314845
 3.00 308865 309856 308848 308839 306833 302832 300834 297839
      296847 296853 298859 300865 304868 308867 308865
 4.00 306861 306859 306856 306855 305854 304853 302853 302852
      301853 300854 300855 301857 302859 303861 304863 306861
      306861

$$





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