Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270538
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 27/1200 UTC THRU AUG 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.  RECENT
RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS MOISTURE HAS BEEN DRAWN WEST INTO WESTERN
AZ/SOUTHERN NV AND SOUTHEAST CA, WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN EARLIER
THAN USUAL DIURNAL UPSWING OF CONVECTION.  A BLEND OF 00Z WPC
CONTINUITY AND THE GUIDANCE GUIDANCE WAS USED MOST AREAS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS PER THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3".  A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS HERE.


CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ESCORT ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE REGION.  THE GUIDANCE IS
HAVING A ROUGH TIME DEPICTING THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN IL, SO
BELIEVE ITS AMOUNTS ARE TOO LIGHT IN THIS AREA -- USED RADAR
TRENDS FOR PLACEMENT AND TO INCREASE AMOUNTS.  THE PATTERN
DEPICTED BEST MATCHES IN THE 00Z ECMWF AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
ACROSS IL/IN/MI, WHILE AMOUNTS IN WI AND CENTRAL MI ARE ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERE
WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY.  IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, DISTURBANCES
MOVING MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.  NUDGED THE 00Z WPC QPF TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ACROSS KS AND USED ONGOING RADAR TRENDS
FOR THE PATTERN IN THE SATURDAY 06Z-12Z PERIOD.


NORTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/FORCING/MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A
BAND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MN.  IN THIS AREA, NUDGED THE 00Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS.


LOWER MS VALLEY, WESTERN GULF COAST, & FLORIDA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN AXIS OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE FL PENINSULA
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A PAIR OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FL STRAITS
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.  WHILE THERE ARE SOME DETAIL
DIFFERENCES IN BOTH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN KEEPING HEAVIER RAIN AXIS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
LA/UPPER TX COAST GIVEN WEDGE OF MID/UPR LEVEL DRY AIR JUST TO THE
NORTH.  A FEW MODELS ARE A BIT FURTHER INLAND, WHICH IS POSSIBLE
AS SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE POOL.  WITH
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWING POCKETS OF 4-7" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LA AND
THE UPPER TX COAST.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 535212 537203 538195 537187 538177 535166 530154 523149
      518148 516150 513149 509146 504145 501147 499149 499154
      503157 504162 499163 494165 489165 486168 486173 487175
      490176 494180 495185 499196 504207 506211 512215 517224
      521234 525233 527229 527222 527217 529214 533217 535212
 0.01 516281 518268 518254 518246 517242 513232 509224 504217
      500213 496212 491211 487212 480213 477215 475217 484221
      489223 492226 495231 496235 500244 504252 506256 507259
      507264 503267 501271 496280 496289 502296 508295 511292
      514288 516281
 0.01 523910 524902 523895 519886 512871 506863 500855 495850
      487846 483846 480844 476840 475835 474829 475825 478817
      483809 484804 487798 490789 492777 493764 491749 487742
      483737 479734 476732 471731 467732 461737 455744 444759
      440765 436770 427786 421796 418804 409821 399832 389847
      376857 362868 359870 357873 358883 359895 354904 351906
      349910 346914 346919 344923 341927 333932 327935 325934
      323930 320922 318918 318910 317896 318890 316889 309886
      307873 305865 303856 302850 300846 299841 299835 298831
      295828 293824 294818 297816 301817 306818 309822 320816
      322808 318808 314806 313800 311796 304791 296788 292786
      289783 284778 280773 267762 260758 255750 251745 247741
      241738 233739 219745 214751 211755 209760 207768 208778
      207782 209787 210791 214795 221800 224803 226809 229819
      233828 236837 240843 252859 257866 262874 249903 255909
      258913 259919 259942 261946 262952 262966 264970 266973
      272976 273982 277983 282985 288986 293987 297985 306981
      336967 340964 343960 348952 351949 353946 356945 362945
      365943 370935 372930 375925 379923 381922 383924 384929
      385934 378940 375943 373948 364967 359976 351982 339989
      340995 342998 347006 349009 356011 357013 356016 352020
      346024 337030 332035 330039 328041 321041 316039 316033
      318028 320022 319017 315007 313003 309002 306004 303009
      298014 294021 290029 288034 289039 292043 296046 297048
      295050 289049 280045 271040 263038 255040 252043 250048
      251053 250059 253067 258074 264082 267085 267089 269090
 0.01 269090 278093 283099 297105 308106 317107 324112 330120
      334127 338135 341142 346148 351155 359161 369163 375159
      380151 384140 386131 387125 388122 400111 406104 409099
      408098 394107 390106 387104 381099 382095 385093 390091
      393087 399083 403074 403069 402063 405061 407058 393052
      390049 384048 383042 385036 388025 388018 392014 397008
      399005 401000 403996 403990 403984 402981 402975 401971
      400967 402963 413947 414942 413938 414933 417929 421922
      423919 426917 428917 429921 430925 433938 435940 441942
      442949 443954 445964 448967 451971 445987 443992 440996
      436999 433003 430006 429011 430018 433023 435023 443019
      446015 448014 453008 458002 465997 472992 478984 481980
      484978 491972 499960 505954 510944 512939 512933 515929
      517926 520922 521918 523910
 0.01 391794 384795 378797 369799 365798 363794 363788 363783
      366777 367773 365769 363766 363762 370729 368727 364727
      360728 359731 354737 351744 347751 345757 344761 345766
      348768 348772 343779 340784 340788 340794 345801 340836
      338850 342854 344853 345852 347852 351854 358850 361846
      367830 373826 377820 385807 389801 391794
 0.01 376191 374190 373188 371187 369186 368186 367187 367189
      367190 369191 370192 370193 372193 374194 374193 376191
      376191
 0.01 377089 377087 375085 375084 373083 373082 372081 370080
      369081 369084 369086 369088 370088 371090 373090 375090
      377089
 0.25 530202 532196 533190 532183 531178 527172 525170 520169
      517176 509175 506176 503179 507187 511194 516200 522204
      526205 530202
 0.25 507916 505913 502914 499916 494917 487914 483914 477915
      472920 467927 462936 459945 457956 456963 459968 458978
      456983 457985 460984 466980 472974 477966 482959 487951
      492942 496935 500924 504921 507916
 0.25 462782 462776 461775 457782 451797 446803 439806 433809
      426814 421819 418824 414831 409838 403851 394864 387876
      384882 383887 382893 382900 388903 391911 393914 396913
      401906 404901 409894 415890 427884 433880 435876 436871
      441855 443847 444841 446838 455828 459821 459815 459811
      460798 462782
 0.25 385997 385996 384995 383994 383992 382992 381992 380994
      380995 378997 377999 377001 377003 377006 378007 379007
      381006 383004 384002 385999 385997
 0.25 386974 386972 384974 386975 386974
 0.25 380076 380074 380071 380069 378067 377067 376066 375065
      373065 372066 373068 374071 375071 376073 376076 377078
      377079 378078 379076 380076
 0.25 384981 384979 385977 384974 382977 381979 380981 380982
      380983 380985 382985 383983 384981 384981
 0.25 365137 367131 364127 359126 353124 350122 346123 346129
      347132 350136 354138 359139 363139 365137
 0.25 360823 359819 356819 352824 351827 349831 348835 347842
      350844 353842 355837 357833 358829 360824 360823
 0.25 341096 341089 342083 341078 340072 335072 329072 326074
      325078 326083 328087 330090 333093 336095 339097 341096
 0.25 337058 337054 334052 332051 329050 327048 324047 320048
      321052 322055 323057 326059 329059 330060 334059 337058
 0.25 314954 315950 314946 312942 307930 304918 304905 304892
      302885 299879 296868 292864 288862 282860 279862 277868
      276875 274886 272892 269896 266902 266909 268917 270923
      273933 273949 273957 274962 277967 283969 294966 303962
      310958 314954
 0.25 306085 306080 303076 296069 287064 279059 270053 267053
      266054 263060 261064 262071 265074 270077 275084 279087
      286087 299089 303088 306085
 0.25 310043 311041 310039 310038 308036 306035 304034 302034
      301036 300038 300039 301040 302042 304044 305045 306045
      307045 309045 310043
 0.25 300804 300802 298801 296803 297805 298806 300805 300804
 0.25 287845 287844 286843 285841 283842 281841 279842 277844
      276844 277846 278846 279848 280848 281848 283848 284848
      285847 287846 287845
 0.25 283806 281802 278799 270793 265786 260776 256769 248764
      241759 238757 232756 227759 224761 221765 220770 225792
      229801 234808 240815 243818 248820 252818 255819 265822
      268822 270821 271816 269812 271808 275806 278806 283806
 0.50 522189 523187 522185 521185 519186 517185 516184 514183
      513182 512184 511186 512187 513189 513190 515192 516193
      517193 518192 520191 522190 522189
 0.50 488934 487929 483927 476928 469935 466944 463954 464967
      462974 466974 469970 474962 479957 484947 487937 488934
 0.50 446819 444817 439817 430820 424825 417832 409848 400864
      397873 396885 395890 395896 397900 399897 411884 418879
      425873 429865 432856 435845 438835 442828 445824 446819
 0.50 336078 336077 334077 332077 331077 330079 330081 332081
      334079 334078 336078 336078
 0.50 333056 332055 330054 329054 328055 329056 330057 332056
      333056
 0.50 308041 308040 306038 305038 305040 306041 308041 308041
 0.50 303949 305943 304938 303926 301916 300910 300903 300896
      300889 298882 295875 292871 290870 287875 285878 283887
      275903 276912 279921 281930 280941 279951 279957 281961
      285963 289962 297958 303949
 0.50 295079 290077 283074 278072 274069 269066 267066 265069
      269072 274073 276075 277080 281083 288083 294081 295079
 0.50 262803 259797 257795 258791 257783 253777 246770 242766
      238762 233761 227763 224767 223772 225778 227785 228792
      230798 234802 241803 245805 249810 253812 257809 262803
 1.00 480939 479938 477939 476942 477944 477945 477944 478942
      479941 480939
 1.00 430833 429829 426830 421834 419840 418846 414851 410856
      407861 410863 414861 417858 420853 423847 426841 429836
      430833
 1.00 299941 300933 299926 298919 295912 294906 294897 294893
      292891 289893 286898 284904 285910 288916 289922 289931
      285943 284949 285953 286956 290956 296952 298948 299941
 1.00 247788 248783 246780 241775 238767 232764 229765 227767
      226770 227773 229782 230788 233794 236796 240796 245792
      247788
 1.50 296945 296941 297937 297933 296930 293931 292934 291937
      290939 289943 288945 288949 289952 291952 294950 295947
      296945
 1.50 244789 244786 243783 240780 238775 237771 234768 232768
      229769 230772 230776 232780 232786 234791 238792 243791
      244789
 2.00 242789 242787 241785 241784 240783 239782 237781 236782
      235783 234784 234786 235788 236788 237790 238790 240790
      241790 242789
 2.00 235778 236776 234775 233776 234778 235778 235778
$$





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