Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270654
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 27/1200 UTC THRU JUL 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID ATLANTIC...

A RATHER UNKEMPT PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROF ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE  OH VALLEY BY LATER
THIS EVENING.  AS THAT TROF MOVES SOUTHEAST...IT WILL HELP PUSH A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT THROUGH 12Z AND IT
IS THE COMBINATION OF THE TROF AND FRONT WHICH PROVIDES THE FOCUS
FOR THE BEST CONVECTION.

ONE AREA OF CONVECTION MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WAS IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WAS SOUTH OF WHERE MOST OF THE 00Z
MODELS DEPICT IT EVEN BY 27/12Z.  THE ARW HAS THE CONVECTION
DEPICTED THE CONVECTION BUT IT WAS MUCH TOO SLOW.  ATTEMPTED TO
FOLLOW THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD BY LINEAR TRANSLATION AS IT WEAKENS.  MORE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS DEVELOP ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER OVER FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OH AS THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS APPROACH
THE REGION WITH BETTER INSTABILITY.  WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WHERE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
IS MAXIMIZED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...UPSTATE NY TO NEW ENGLAND...

A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE
THIS EVENING.  GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROF WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.  SAW LITTLE
REASON TO ARGUE WITH THAT IDEA AND LARGELY USED WPC PSEDUO BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE HERE.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S TO COLORADO...

WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPR TROF THRU THE GREAT LAKES...THE
PRONOUNCED UPR RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS PD. LINGERING MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLD TO
SCTD CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION..MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK S/WV ENERGY TRACKING WNWWD
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR RIDGE ACRS NRN MEX THAT MAY
TEND TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY OVER SE AZ/SW NM SUN AFTN..OTHERWISE
FORCING REMAINS ILL DEFINED.  ACRS CO AND THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS....THERE IS GENL MODEL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ENHANCED SE/E
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND SWD MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE CNTL/SRN CO MTNS ON SUN WITH PWS INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
OVER SE CO SUN AFTN.  WHILE THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WAS STILL
FAIRLY LARGE..THE GFS/ARW AND STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE AND 27 KM ECMWF
ALL GENERATED AT LEAST AN INCH AND A HALF OF QPF OVER SOUTHEAST CO
INTO NORTHEAST NM LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WHICH POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FLASH FLOODING.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 519676 520673 519670 519668 519665 518663 518660 514653
      510654 506654 497656 491658 486660 482663 477661 471657
      463654 455655 448658 441666 438669 433670 427672 423672
      416674 413678 409686 402691 398693 393696 387700 381708
      377716 375720 373726 370736 368744 367748 367755 364765
      363772 361781 358784 354786 351787 348791 348803 347810
      348818 347824 347831 343842 341845 341851 341858 340864
      337871 337885 336892 334897 332919 333930 333941 336952
      338966 340977 344987 350006 352009 352015 350026 349029
      346029 342031 339033 340036 341042 343047 345052 348057
      346061 343064 340068 337068 334067 335062 331059 328060
      264059 257054 250050 244049 238047 230050 227052 229055
      233062 245073 252080 260086 267091 272100 285110 292115
      297122 303127 308129 310132 314135 317135 322133 328135
      328139 324139 321150 319153 319156 313152 309151 306153
      307158 312160 323164 331170 338175 341177 344177 348167
      351162 355162 364160 368158 370159 372161 377162 380162
      382161 385158 391160 393162 395167 398168 401165 414158
      418159 416156 410151 407147 405146 405142 406138 403135
      394131 393127 395124 397120 399115 403111 394110 386113
      383114 378114 374115 369113 367111 368108 368104 369098
      371096 373097 376100 378100 383095 383092 381087 384086
      387088 388086 388084 385081 385078 389080 391077 393071
      396067 407060 406053 404050 398041 393034 389027 385015
      386008 387002 384981 384974 383969 382962 381958 380954
      377951 373949 369949 364954 361957 359952 354942 352936
      352930 355908 354903 354900 355897 359899 362897 365893
      366888 367885 369887 370889 374890 379889 382886 386881
      395864 398860 401858 403860 408866 419883 423892 427902
      431911 433915 435918 443935
 0.01 443935 444939 447942 452947 457954 459957 462955 469951
      472949 472945 473931 479935 486937 489935 491932 493928
      493920 494909 493897 492890 491887 488876 484869 474855
      470850 466839 464829 460820 455816 454811 455806 454794
      453790 452785 453782 456783 459786 464790 469784 473776
      480760 485753 487749 490747 496741 498737 499732 512697
      519676
 0.01 385193 382188 375183 369179 364179 361180 357179 354181
      351182 350184 352187 355186 362185 369188 375193 378196
      381195 385193
 0.01 352152 351146 348143 346140 343136 340133 337134 336136
      333138 331144 330149 332153 334156 339158 344159 348156
      350154 352152
 0.01 305840 285835 284830 285826 288819 288810 283804 288798
      288795 286793 282794 279796 273799 256803 251807 249810
      249814 249819 251823 254828 266835 277843 281848 285856
      287865 288874 289884 290893 293910 296917 297922 299922
      303914 304906 305898 304888 302883 303878 305871 305861
      303853 305840
 0.25 508682 506675 503673 495675 486678 479675 472675 466681
      463685 461686 457686 454684 447685 444686 438688 431687
      425689 422692 420697 413703 400713 395719 393730 389746
      387750 384753 377758 374761 372764 369772 370780 369785
      366790 364797 360805 358823 355831 354835 354841 354851
      355863 356869 357874 360875 364874 369868 375864 376868
      376874 378878 381874 383865 385854 387851 392849 397845
      401837 405834 409833 414837 418844 427859 432868 437871
      451880 458883 466883 471884 475883 475876 474870 470862
      465856 460850 457842 453834 449824 446814 442804 440794
      438782 437777 438773 440765 444762 449761 458762 466759
      473753 482740 487733 492726 498708 503695 508682
 0.25 396057 397052 396047 393041 384031 375021 371017 365015
      362016 360019 358027 354032 351040 352049 354057 357063
      358066 357071 361076 367077 373074 378070 384069 389066
      396057
 0.25 364092 364088 363087 359087 355091 351093 349095 346095
      344092 340088 334086 327080 322081 317083 296076 289075
      285077 281079 279082 278087 280091 288097 293099 299100
      307106 311109 316110 326107 331106 335108 343116 346119
      352119 351106 359103 364092
 0.25 362987 361983 360980 359978 357975 355972 354969 352967
      350966 349969 350973 351976 352978 353981 355983 357985
      359987 362987
 0.25 275807 274806 273805 272805 271805 269805 267805 265806
      264809 265810 266811 267811 269811 271810 272810 273809
      274808 275807
 0.50 498690 497685 494684 488686 476687 466695 458696 450697
      444699 439705 426712 414722 410727 409731 409738 409743
      408745 400750 390758 383762 379767 378771 379774 382776
      384778 384781 379786 374793 367806 364812 363820 360828
      359833 362836 364844 366854 368856 371854 375850 381845
      388845 393841 396835 400828 403826 407827 411827 413829
      418834 426847 430853 434860 440863 446868 451872 458874
      465875 468873 469868 467863 464860 458854 455849 451839
      445826 438808 436801 433790 432781 430768 431759 434753
      439746 441740 448740 454742 479731 485727 488722 489715
      491711 494702 497696 498690
 0.50 393057 395053 394049 392044 385037 379030 374027 370025
      364024 361028 356038 355043 355049 357054 360058 365061
      371061 378061 382064 387063 391060 393057
 0.50 347114 346111 344108 343107 341102 341100 340096 338094
      335095 336099 337102 338104 340107 342109 344111 345114
      347114
 0.50 319101 319099 318098 316097 315097 314096 313096 311094
      310094 309093 308094 307095 306096 306098 306100 307101
      308102 308103 310104 312104 314105 315104 317103 319101
 1.00 434730 435727 433726 432725 430725 429726 428726 427729
      427731 429732 431732 432731 434730 434730
 1.00 443839 441834 439828 438823 435820 432816 428816 425818
      422822 423829 424834 428838 430840 433843 439843 442841
      443839
 1.00 427800 427796 426791 424789 421791 419792 416795 415797
      415800 416802 417804 419807 421808 424808 426806 427803
      427800
 1.00 407764 406763 404762 404761 402762 401765 403766 405766
      406765 407764
 1.00 399797 398793 394791 385793 379798 374806 370814 367823
      367828 371830 379832 383832 387829 390822 391815 393810
      397803 399797
 1.00 390054 389051 390045 384040 379035 376033 373032 366033
      362038 361044 362048 363051 367054 374055 382058 384058
      388056 390054
 1.50 434830 434828 434826 432823 431825 429826 428829 428831
      429833 430833 431833 432833 433833 434830
 1.50 389806 388801 383801 380803 376807 374810 373815 373821
      373824 376825 381824 384820 386817 387811 389806 389806
 1.50 387047 387044 385043 382040 379037 375035 371037 366039
      365043 367047 370050 374051 379053 383051 387048 387047
 2.00 387045 385044 381043 380041 378040 375038 372039 370041
      371045 372046 376047 379048 383047 385046 387045

$$




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