Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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990
FXUS04 KWBC 250930
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
530 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 25/1200 UTC THRU MAY 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...NORTHERN PLAINS / MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES....

WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MESOSCALE AREAS OF MODERATE AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SYNOPTIC ORGANIZATION AND
PREDICTABILITY APPEAR GREATEST OVER NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PRODUCING A
NICELY DEFINED DEFORMATION AXIS OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN ND AND
ADJACENT EASTERN MONTANA...WELL WEST OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF CAME IN LINE WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REGARDING LOCATION OF AN AXIS OF HALF TO ONE INCH OR A
LITTLE GREATER AMOUNTS STRADDLING WILLISTON AND MINOT. HEIGHT
FALLS WILL ALSO EXTEND EASTWARD...BRINGING A PROGRESSIVE BAND OR
RAIN/THUNDER THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN ND...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFTS ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER. THE
FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD
RESULT IN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ENOUGH SEPARATION
BETWEEN THIS AREA AND A RATHER UNSETTLED SWATH OF CONVECTION THAT
WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. IT
IS THIS LATTER SWATH THAT IS THE SOURCE OF MUCH OF THE FORECAST
DIFFICULTY OVER THIS REGION...WITH AN ARRAY OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...OUTFLOWS...AND MCVS. ON THE LARGE SCALE...A LEAD
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING SHOULD YIELD
ORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
ALSO EXPECT AN MCV TO EMANATE FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN
NE/IA...WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO AID CONVECTION ARCHING DOWN THROUGH
IL/MO DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. THE BETTER MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
THESE FEATURES APPEARED TO BE IN THE 00Z GFS AND
WRF-ARW...ALTHOUGH WE REFERRED BACK TO THE 12Z WRF-ARW AND WPC
CONTINUITY AT TIMES.


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD...

THE LATE MAY REGIME OF STRONG CAPE...LOCALLY STRONG CAPPING...AND
WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FORECAST CHALLENGES.
TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 12 C AT 700 MB COVERED MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF OK/KS. A PREFERRED STORM/MCS TRACK HAD BEEN ON THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS WARM MID LEVEL CAP...AND
EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY OF CONVECTION HAD BEEN SHEDDING DEPRESSIONS IN
THE HEIGHT FIELD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEE
NO REASON FOR THIS PATTERN TO BREAK TODAY. THE LEADING
DEPRESSION/TROUGH HAD PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN IN AR/MO TUESDAY...AND
THERE ARE SHORT TERM SIGNALS THAT CONVECTION MAY IGNITE AGAIN WITH
THIS FEATURE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT STATES EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CONVERGENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY WITH THE SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER
PATTERN...SUCH THAT CHANCES FOR RAIN SPREAD TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE HEAVIER RAIN AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD LAG A BIT...BACK ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE
AND BACK WESTWARD TO THE CAPPING INVERSION...BASICALLY CENTRAL
OK/KS. ALSO EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE DAY OVER FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS AND HEIGHT FALLS APPROACH.
CRAFTING QPF FOR THIS SITUATION WAS QUITE A CHALLENGE...WITH NO
PARTICULAR MODEL BEING ABLE TO PREDICT MORE THAN ONE OR TWO OF THE
VARIOUS OBSERVED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. THE QPF WAS
STITCHED TOGETHER USING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...HRRR TRENDS...EARLY
ON...AND TRANSITIONING TO A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND
WRF-ARW...ALONG WITH EXTRAPOLATION / PATTERN RECOGNITION IN AREAS
WHERE THE MODELS WERE NOT SATISFACTORY. ONE SUCH AREA WAS THE
MULTI-STATE AREA CONNECTING KS/OK/AR/MO...AND ALSO SOUTHEAST
OK...WHERE MODELS WERE NOT PERFORMING WELL.


...WESTERN U.S...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN MAKES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY...WITH
BOTH THE LOW ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER WITH CANADA AND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. PRESSING EASTWARD.
HEIGHT RISES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHOULD PRODUCE A
MORE STABLE VERTICAL PROFILE...WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS BEING
LESS NUMEROUS AND LESS PRODUCTIVE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO BE
ACROSS NEVADA AND INTO MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN WYOMING...WITH
JUST THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND NEUTRAL TO
POSITIVE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW...BUT SHARP HEIGHT
FALLS COULD LEAD TO A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
FOR QPF...WPC USED A COMBINATION OF CONTINUITY...NDFD...AND OUR
DOWNSCALED IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...ALONG WITH SOME PREFERENCE FOR THE
00Z WRF-ARW.


DAYS 2/3...


...WEST...

THE PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVES ROTATING WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING VIA DIURNAL HEATING.  THE QPF FORECAST HERE
IS GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN.


...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AND POINTS EAST...

AB ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE HIGHLY CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW WITH THE DETAILS ON THE
EXACT QPF MAGNITUDE/PLACEMENT IN ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...BUT HAVE A
BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL AREAS OF CONCERN FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS
AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ON A 24 HOUR SCALE. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. WILL
DESCRIBE THESE HIGHER THREAT AREAS IN THE PARAGRAPHS TO FOLLOW.

DAY 2 (12Z THU-12Z FRI)

ONE AREA OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NE...SOUTHWEST IA...NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO. AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...EXPECT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARDS THE KS/NE
BORDER...WITH THIS FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...A VERY FAVORABLE 300 MB PATTERN WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE
AND ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET...AND LIFT UP AND OVER
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOOKING AT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE REGION SITUATED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. THUS CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION INTO THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN TRAINING OF HEAVY
RAINFALL SEEMS PROBABLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE FRONT SETS UP AND THUS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS. THE GFS/UKMET/GEM/NAM ARE ALL FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF.
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND HAS STRONG SUPPORT
FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ALSO MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IN THE
CONVECTIVE SEASON THE FURTHER SOUTH BOUNDARY ENDS UP VERIFYING.
FOR THESE REASONS CONTINUED TO STAY WITH AN AXIS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG/NEAR
THE KS/NE BORDER EAST TOWARDS THE MO/IA BORDER. LOOKING AT AMOUNTS
IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 3-5"
(POSSIBLY MORE IF GREATER TRAINING OCCURS). CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE
TO A MODERATE RISK GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP. HOWEVER AS WE HAVE
SEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...IS HARD TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS
OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS FAR OUT. THUS THOUGHT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTED IN THE EXACT AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF THAT OPTED TO
JUST KEEP THE SLIGHT RISK.

THE OTHER REGION OF GREATER CONCERN ON DAY 2 IS ACROSS TEXAS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ON DAY 2. THE DAY
STARTS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY THIS FEATURE.
UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DIFFLUENT THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION LIKELY DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOWS AND
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. ITS NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE AS THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
OVERSPREADS IT. THIS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE STATE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. MOISTURE PARAMETERS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON DAY 2 ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
TX WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
1.5"-2" (1-2.5 SD ABOVE AVERAGE). ALSO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION.
KEPT THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AREA ON DAY 2.

DAY 3 ((12Z FRI-12Z SAT)

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A CONVECTIVE LINE TO
FORM ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECTATION IS FOR
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE STATE INTO
FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION MAY END UP PROPAGATING ORE
SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FORCED MORE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD...BEING CLOSER TO THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE. WOULD
EXPECT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE TROUGH DAY 3 ACROSS
EASTERN TX INTO EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR/LA WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA ACROSS NORTHEAST TX INTO OK/AR
WILL HAVE THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WILL STILL HAVE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND WILL HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT POTENTIAL EAST/WEST
ALIGNMENT RESULTING IN TRAINING. THUS WILL INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AREA
IN A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK. OVERALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...SUGGESTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG AN AXIS FROM EAST TX INTO EASTERN OK AND WESTERN
AR. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR MEANS
FOR QPF.

A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE REGION. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH DAY 3. ALTHOUGH MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. ALSO GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ALSO A
QUESTION ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. MODEL QPF SIGNALS
FROM THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO NOT AS IMPRESSIVE
FURTHER NORTH. SO WHILE STILL THINK A MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT
EXISTS ON DAY 3 ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/NE/SD/IA/MN/WI...THREAT
APPEARS BELOW THE SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLD AT THIS TIME.

ACROSS THE EAST COAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SEEMS POSSIBLE
UNDER THE WEAK FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE...MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THOUGHT THE GFS WAS TOO WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY WITH ITS
DEPICTION...WITH THE ECMWF PROBABLY TOO WEAK/DRY. OPTED FOR A
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN...WHICH WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SREF.


BURKE/CHENARD




24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 536177 535168 533159 531155 528151 522146 516144 511143
      500141 491138 483133 477124 475119 473113 477102 484097
      485088 482085 475078 471075 468070 471068 476066 481063
      483062 485065 486078 487083 490084 504073 507070 509064
      511051 514035 515020 518007 520993 519978 521965 522958
      523948 521939 517933 510931 505935 501932 499928 489909
      487905 486899 484886 481872 478862 474851 472844 469839
      464829 459822 453813 447813 445813 444810 448792 454774
      463758 466753 469750 475742 481739 485736 493729 500722
      503718 502708 501700 501695 501689 500681 496671 492664
      481655 476648 474644 471643 462641 456637 449632 444631
      441633 440639 441645 444652 447654 450658 453662 456667
      456674 455680 453686 448694 443703 442708 439714 438721
      437725 437731 436734 438741 436751 435756 432761 430765
      431772 432780 430785 430795 432803 431808 430816 427819
      422822 420825 414832 410834 407835 405834 399827 394826
      388825 386823 385819 384811 388804 388801 386797 383797
      379800 375806 371810 367812 364815 362819 351835 348844
      350848 353850 355851 355856 353861 346868 342872 339876
      336879 334884 332889 331892 329893 324899 320904 317913
      315922 315927 316931 312940 308951 309954 314955 325955
      327959 332958 339964 348969 351972 352976 346986 344991
      344996 346000 351000 357996 366985 375981 378979 383979
      389980 391984 394993 399002 402005 404005 405002 408998
      410994 414985 417979 420973 427980 428983 427987 426992
      422001 422006 425011 427016 430020 433027 436033 441035
      443031 445018 459006 458000 460001 462005 463011 462025
      457037 452046 447055 447058 444059 440057 435063 430075
      428080 425082 422085 419085 418083 411086
 0.01 411086 396110 390112 387113 385117 387118 393119 402121
      409123 413128 411136 406137 401136 392135 387139 376149
      372153 368159 366167 361174 356179 353182 355185 366195
      371199 377202 383206 389211 396215 400215 403212 404210
      402206 400199 397194 396185 401183 404184 406187 409192
      412194 419198 421200 424198 429193 434191 435188 435186
      428187 425188 420186 417177 416172 417166 422159 422150
      418144 420141 421137 425131 432130 434150 444162 452172
      455174 458175 461173 461171 459166 458162 454155 450148
      449146 451144 454142 456141 460141 463148 465157 469163
      474169 483171 487172 490171 495172 496177 499175 503175
      505176 513190 516199 518204 521205 527204 530202 531197
      536177
 0.01 467242 467240 467239 465238 463237 462236 460236 458235
      457235 456236 455237 453237 452238 451240 452242 452243
      454244 455244 457245 459245 460244 462245 464245 465244
      466243 467242
 0.01 431166 430163 430161 428160 428161 428163 428165 429166
      431166 431166
 0.01 365124 365118 362116 358116 354114 351112 348109 344109
      345114 346118 347123 350126 353125 359126 363125 365124
 0.01 347194 347192 348189 347189 345189 344191 344193 345194
      346194 347194
 0.01 340177 340174 337173 333171 332170 328168 326167 326170
      326172 329173 331175 334178 336178 338179 340177
 0.01 333008 333001 330997 322990 305977 301976 294975 279975
      273976 268978 259983 251988 243996 241000 240007 241012
      243014 248014 252018 263021 269022 274024 283019 289020
      293023 296028 300032 305032 309030 318022 324016 328013
      333008 333008
 0.01 279796 277796 275797 273797 272797 270799 268799 266800
      268800 270800 272800 274801 276801 277799 278799 279797
      279796
 0.01 267814 265809 260806 255804 254800 254795 254790 252785
      241790 236789 232792 233798 236804 237811 239817 242819
      245818 248819 250825 253830 256831 258830 261824 261820
      265817 267814
 0.25 528172 529169 527166 526163 523160 522158 520156 517155
      515155 515158 517161 519164 521166 522169 524171 527174
      528172
 0.25 511006 512999 513991 512982 513972 513962 511955 507956
      502953 497952 493952 489953 487951 484945 486940 487935
      487931 483914 480904 477897 475894 468893 464891 456883
      443881 439881 437880 433874 432870 433867 438863 440858
      446855 442846 436836 434830 433830 432834 430841 423842
      420844 418846 415853 411866 406878 403883 402890 402896
      403901 403907 401913 400920 399924 397926 394924 392918
      393915 391913 386913 384915 382918 379924 375920 372914
      369908 366904 363903 363901 365896 367890 368884 369877
      367871 364870 360871 357874 352878 348883 345888 344892
      345895 354912 348918 343927 336936 333940 332945 337951
      342952 348951 355951 369952 371963 373967 373970 375970
      378967 382965 389963 394960 397964 399970 401977 403975
      409962 414957 418957 421953 422949 423945 418919 417911
      417905 421901 425901 428903 428908 428913 429918 434930
      437935 438943 439953 438959 435971 435977 440978 449981
      460988 468998 471003 473009 473016 471023 467031 466038
      465043 466048 471050 477050 482050 487050 493052 495054
      495058 493066 494070 497071 499068 500063 502056 503045
      505038 507032 509024 510013 511006
 0.25 479678 479675 477671 474667 472664 469663 465665 463670
      462676 463681 463688 467689 472686 475684 478681 479678
 0.25 465856 465854 464849 463846 461842 460839 459837 457835
      454835 454840 456845 456847 457852 458857 458861 460863
      464862 465858 465856
 0.25 452095 450092 445091 443091 440087 437085 435086 437090
      438095 438103 442103 444101 448097 452096 452095
 0.25 447075 446072 445072 446075 447075
 0.25 382873 380870 379872 378873 379875 381874 382873
 0.25 311015 312011 312006 308000 299991 295989 288986 281985
      273984 268984 262988 253998 252004 258008 267016 282014
      287014 293016 305021 309019 311015
 0.25 246807 246805 245803 245801 244800 242799 240799 240801
      240803 240805 241807 242807 243808 245808 246807
 0.50 510993 510978 510968 509965 506964 498964 492966 489971
      486964 480957 474947 471939 475938 476934 478927 476920
      470912 463903 453893 445887 436888 429879 426872 421868
      417869 414873 410884 410893 412901 419893 423888 427887
      429890 431893 433899 435916 440928 443937 444945 443959
      444965 448971 465987 469989 472990 474989 485990 490987
      492985 493987 494995 489995 484997 483004 477017 472029
      469038 468043 472046 476046 487042 493042 499039 502033
      504026 510993
 0.50 418940 417937 417933 416928 415926 414922 410923 409926
      408929 407933 407936 407940 407943 409945 412946 416946
      417942 418940
 0.50 405963 406961 407959 407956 407954 406952 405950 405949
      403949 402951 401952 401954 400956 400959 400961 400963
      400966 402968 403968 405966 405964 405963
 0.50 397947 398940 396936 393932 389934 386937 382940 380943
      379947 379952 382952 386953 389950 394949 397947
 0.50 368925 368920 366915 362914 359915 352921 347928 343935
      338943 341946 345948 355948 363945 366941 367936 366932
      366927 368925
 0.50 362894 362887 361881 360876 357877 354880 351884 349887
      348892 351896 353901 357902 360899 362894 362894
 0.50 306011 305006 302002 294995 285991 280990 275988 269987
      264990 259998 264008 266011 271011 273006 275004 278005
      281008 285010 291011 296013 302015 306011
 1.00 506985 506983 506980 506978 505976 504978 503980 503983
      504985 505987 506985
 1.00 504006 503002 500006 495009 489012 485019 481024 479034
      477037 476040 479040 484036 489031 494026 497018 501011
      504006
 1.00 468967 467964 466962 466960 465959 464958 463957 462956
      462957 462959 463962 463964 464966 464967 465969 465972
      467969 467968 468967
 1.00 457932 456928 454924 451920 448917 445913 441912 442916
      445920 447923 449928 452931 455933 457932
 1.00 455910 454908 453906 451903 450901 448899 446896 444894
      446899 447901 448904 450906 452908 455911 455910
 1.00 359932 360927 359923 357922 355924 353927 353930 352933
      350935 348937 346940 346941 350941 354942 357941 359938
      358934 359932
 1.00 298008 298007 297005 291002 289002 287004 295007 296008
      298008

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 544163 543157 542149 539137 532129 529126 525126 519126
      514125 510122 505121 500118 496114 489108 484100 482096
      483090 493081 507073 513067 517059 519054 523049 523036
      522031 523027 524018 526008 528000 528990 528969 530963
      530953 530937 531922 534914 537904 539895 541866 540851
      542846 541839 540820 539802 538796 537789 533779 529773
      529768 530764 532753 523728 515707 512699 510695 506693
      500692 493689 487686 483685 479686 471691 461698 447709
      439718 436721 435725 436735 435741 434745 432744 428743
      425744 423747 420749 418753 412760 403764 396770 391771
      387774 378785 374788 371793 365801 355817 349826 344834
      340838 340842 342844 346845 350845 351843 356838 361832
      363829 367827 370829 374827 375821 377819 381816 383815
      384817 385829 387836 386840 384847 383852 371855 362860
      357865 353870 352874 348883 348887 350890 349894 340899
      329908 316917 310922 302925 298934 294941 288950 283958
      280962 276966 268970 256970 254974 253977 249990 252001
      253005 253011 248020 246027 251030 264039 277032 286029
      291028 296029 300029 306030 312030 316028 333016 350007
      353006 357006 366007 374008 377009 379011 378017 378024
      377028 371036 369039 369044 367052 361062 361066 364070
      370077 375086 375092 372095 370096 369093 368090 357084
      353085 351088 351091 351097 352099 356102 359103 363105
      366105 368106 371103 374102 376102 377104 373114 369116
      367117 366119 364123 368124 371125 372128 373134 373142
      375146 376152 376156 374156 363154 361156 363161 365164
      369167 374168 378167 380170 379174 377175 370174 366174
      360174 355178 354181 357184 365190 370195 378199 383204
      392207 397208 398207 395199
 0.01 395199 391195 387191 384188 386187 391182 394179 399177
      403175 407175 417170 421166 422156 423142 429135 433131
      434135 434140 436155 441159 445160 450163 452162 473155
      483153 486153 488159 477185 483193 488203 486205 483206
      478207 474209 469213 452218 449219 448222 448225 451225
      455227 454231 452239 453241 456242 460242 460248 463253
      468257 473257 478254 482250 484249 485251 489255 495265
      500275 502275 504271 508265 518246 521239 524235 527228
      529217 536188 544163
 0.01 478082 478079 477077 475076 473076 472076 470076 468075
      467078 467080 468082 470083 471084 473084 475085 476084
      478082
 0.01 473996 474974 474962 474957 472954 470945 467937 466934
      464931 461932 459935 457942 454949 452957 449964 447971
      444978 440985 436990 436996 438000 439004 441002 449002
      455000 460996 467996 471999 473996
 0.01 465011 463009 461008 460010 460011 458011 456010 454013
      456015 458015 459015 461015 463013 465011
 0.01 456015 454013 453013 451013 449015 451017 453017 454017
      456015
 0.01 451017 449015 447015 446017 447019 449019 451017
 0.01 390096 389093 387094 385095 387097 388097 390096
 0.01 387097 385095 383095 382097 383099 385099 387097
 0.01 356120 357114 355111 352110 350108 346105 345101 344094
      342089 339087 336086 335088 334094 336097 339104 342109
      345113 347115 350121 354122 356120
 0.01 291809 289805 285802 277797 270790 264784 269781 273778
      274773 270770 265767 260768 255769 253770 252767 250766
      247768 243771 236777 233780 230786 228795 224805 226815
      234822 241822 258811 260807 263805 266805 276806 286809
      291809
 0.25 532170 532155 531144 529140 524139 517139 508140 503145
      499158 496166 494174 494182 497190 500201 501208 500214
      497218 494222 492225 495228 499230 502227 504225 507228
      510230 512229 514222 516211 518203 520198 525190 529181
      532170
 0.25 522913 523903 521893 520879 517861 516856 513851 507842
      502834 495824 489818 484818 479822 473828 469832 467838
      467845 469851 476859 479862 481862 484867 486875 488889
      487898 488908 489915 492919 497920 503920 513918 520916
      522913
 0.25 514032 515021 514014 512005 510000 503990 500984 497982
      494985 493988 490995 489012 489024 487032 486041 487048
      491053 496056 503055 506051 510045 512040 514032
 0.25 432094 431092 429091 428091 427091 428093 428094 429096
      431095 432094
 0.25 437949 437942 436937 433928 430918 425909 422902 420891
      419880 417872 416865 414860 410852 406851 402853 397860
      390864 387867 382866 376869 373871 372874 367883 362889
      359897 357901 353905 348909 343916 339921 332923 325928
      320934 306943 296953 286964 282970 277976 272982 270987
      269993 271000 275007 280011 285016 294018 297019 300023
      303025 308027 315022 321018 326012 335003 342997 349994
      357994 368995 372994 375993 382992 387997 390004 391009
      390014 387024 386030 384033 379042 374049 373053 375056
      379060 380064 380069 377078 380079 382075 385071 389070
      393070 398067 405063 407061 409057 409050 412043 412038
      412031 412020 414009 417998 419990 424981 431968 435957
      437949
 0.25 409108 410105 410103 409102 408102 407103 406105 405105
      407107 407108 409108 409108
 0.25 357830 356829 355829 353830 354833 355833 356832 357832
      357830
 0.25 256787 254784 250782 246782 243784 239787 238789 236794
      237798 239801 243803 246802 250799 252796 254792 256788
      256787
 0.50 523179 524176 523173 522172 520173 518175 517177 516179
      515182 516185 517186 518185 519185 521183 522181 523180
      523179
 0.50 506029 507021 506014 505008 501008 500013 499018 498023
      497031 497036 499041 502040 504037 506032 506029
 0.50 424959 426952 426946 424935 421928 417922 413916 408915
      403916 397918 391922 379952 377959 376966 377970 379973
      381976 386979 390987 394993 396011 395021 393025 392032
      389038 385042 379049 379053 382056 387060 391065 393066
      396065 402059 400044 406026 405023 401021 403014 410998
      415982 421969 424959
 0.50 400897 400892 399887 399883 398881 397878 393878 391879
      388880 386881 386886 387888 388893 389895 391897 394899
      396900 398899 400897
 0.50 376893 376891 376889 376887 376886 374884 372885 370887
      369889 368891 368894 367895 365896 367896 369896 371896
      372896 374896 375896 376894 376893
 0.50 374974 373973 371972 370972 368972 366973 365974 364975
      363976 364976 366977 368977 370978 371977 373976 374974
 0.50 363921 363916 361914 359914 357916 355916 352919 351921
      350925 350930 352933 355932 357930 358927 360925 362923
      363921
 0.50 346976 345969 342963 342956 343949 344940 343936 339935
      333936 329939 324942 320947 311952 300957 292962 278980
      275987 276992 280001 284006 289010 294012 298012 302017
      305023 307023 312020 321012 327003 330999 335994 342989
      346980 346976
 0.50 247790 247789 246788 245788 245789 243790 242791 242793
      244794 245794 246792 247791 247790
 1.00 414973 415964 416956 414947 412942 410938 407935 402932
      399931 396932 392935 391940 389954 389963 390968 394979
      398989 403992 406990 410986 412981 414973
 1.00 334982 335975 332974 330975 324980 322977 323970 322958
      319955 314956 308960 294970 290972 287975 283983 280986
      281990 283993 284997 287002 291004 297002 302002 306004
      306015 308017 310015 314013 320007 322005 325000 328993
      334982
 1.50 412968 412959 409950 405945 402941 398942 394947 393956
      393966 395975 399982 401984 405985 408983 409980 412970
      412968
 1.50 328986 329982 326982 322984 312988 310985 307985 304987
      302990 298991 292989 285988 284989 286991 287993 287998
      291000 296997 299996 302998 308000 308007 310013 313011
      321003 326992 328986
 1.50 316975 316973 317971 316969 316967 316966 315967 314967
      313969 312970 312971 311973 312975 314976 315976 316975
 2.00 410966 410959 407952 404947 401946 398947 396952 395961
      396970 398975 401980 405980 407979 409973 410966
 2.00 323994 323990 321988 319988 317988 315990 313992 311995
      310998 310002 310007 313009 316007 318005 320003 321001
      322997 323994
 3.00 405966 405963 405961 405959 405958 405956 404954 403954
      402952 400953 399954 398956 398959 397961 397963 398965
      398966 399968 400969 402970 403969 404968 405966 405966
 3.00 319001 319999 319996 319994 319992 317991 316992 315993
      314994 314996 313998 312000 313002 313003 314005 315005
      316005 317004 318003 318001 319001

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 548129 549124 547122 543118 539115 535110 527102 524097
      524089 525072 525062 526057 527053 530050 532047 533042
      533034 529011 525991 522980 522976 523973 523965 523936
      523897 524887 522882 519868 515859 514853 515848 514840
      515834 514817 513811 512807 509797 503774 491731 488724
      487720 486716 484697 483690 480685 475682 473680 472675
      470670 468677 465679 464677 461676 458672 455669 452668
      450667 447667 445668 443671 438679 432696 424710 419726
      417732 413736 405744 401748 398753 393762 390766 387769
      382777 376785 371792 352821 345836 344840 345845 346849
      345853 345857 347859 350863 353862 357859 372842 375839
      378835 383828 387819 390816 394817 397819 400822 403824
      403831 402840 399851 396858 392863 391867 380877 369881
      363882 357883 349890 342899 331911 324917 317923 305933
      298937 294941 270964 263972 262978 262982 260984 253990
      250992 255994 261995 265995 269997 275997 286000 297001
      314006 319006 323004 329000 338996 345992 351989 355988
      358989 358991 360998 360006 359023 358031 358035 357038
      356046 356051 365070 375084 385095 386098 383097 380094
      376094 376097 378106 376111 376116 374120 375124 375127
      377128 380128 425123 433119 438120 439126 439133 441138
      442143 445147 455161 463171 466175 469176 469179 468187
      466192 465199 463204 456211 446216 439221 451240 470246
      474249 477254 480259 484262 487260 489256 489250 491254
      497268 500269 505269 509269 511264 513258 514250 516246
      518238 520232 522225 525217
 0.01 525217 526209 528204 531197 532192 533187 535179 537175
      538168 540162 541157 543149 544144 546139 547131 548129
 0.01 391199 388192 383184 379181 376179 368174 359171 355171
      357174 360178 362181 365190 368194 372196 380201 384203
      387202 391199
 0.01 363747 361742 357741 349738 334734 316732 308731 300732
      288734 283739 277753 272772 272777 268779 264779 259780
      250784 242788 237789 234791 234795 236798 245811 246813
      249815 255818 264823 272825 278828 282827 283825 284818
      286813 288804 304806 316805 321804 324802 331799 337794
      344788 347784 347779 348770 351762 354756 358752 363747
 0.25 518183 519169 520159 517154 514156 509157 502160 496164
      485169 483174 483179 485187 488194 489203 488210 486213
      483218 488224 494223 500220 505216 510209 512202 518183
 0.25 513006 513000 512997 507992 500988 494986 486987 484991
      484997 486007 490015 495019 501018 508014 512009 513006
 0.25 506109 506103 505099 501091 497088 493086 486085 476083
      470083 461087 457093 453103 450111 446119 444128 445133
      448136 452136 457135 467125 474118 479114 482112 486112
      494113 500114 503114 506109
 0.25 474219 473217 473216 472215 470215 468216 466216 466217
      464217 463218 462218 461219 460220 459222 460224 462225
      463225 465224 467223 469223 471222 472221 473221 474219
 0.25 485839 484830 482824 480820 476817 472817 471822 472830
      471833 470835 454838 451846 447845 444847 439849 436852
      432856 430862 426869 423880 419887 412893 406894 399894
      374895 366897 358901 353905 348911 343916 335921 318930
      304939 299943 294949 290956 288964 287971 287979 289983
      292987 298992 303993 309993 318991 325988 338982 348978
      353977 359976 367975 376973 381972 386978 392986 394988
      395993 395004 394012 394020 394027 393033 391037 388040
      381044 377046 374048 373052 376054 382058 395059 401058
      404056 408048 412038 418023 420018 423013 427007 450978
      455971 460966 469954 473950 474942 476929 478903 477890
      477882 478875 479865 482857 484846 485839
 0.25 388795 388794 386794 385795 384796 384797 384800 385800
      386799 387797 388795 388795
 0.50 511188 512183 512178 509173 504169 499171 495175 493179
      494184 495189 496197 496208 500209 504205 507199 510191
      511188
 0.50 478107 480103 480099 477094 471090 465095 462098 460104
      458109 455112 450119 448124 451128 457123 463116 466114
      470113 474111 477109 478107
 0.50 460925 461918 461912 458903 453899 451892 448887 442885
      436888 432892 421904 417908 411911 408915 406917 403918
      393911 375910 374907 371905 364908 356917 352920 346922
      332928 320934 310940 301946 296952 294955 293959 294976
      294980 296983 300987 307989 313988 328983 339978 344975
      348971 354968 359966 383953 387953 388956 391962 398972
      402978 403980 400983 399986 400988 404995 405998 403001
      401008 402014 407017 411016 413012 416004 415996 415989
      414982 415977 417977 420980 424979 430975 433972 434967
      436959 439952 442948 447946 454943 457938 460925
 0.50 420935 419930 418933 414935 410935 407935 405940 403947
      405956 408963 406973 409973 410968 412959 414950 416940
      420935
 1.00 368929 367923 365922 362923 359924 354925 344928 335931
      326935 319940 310945 303949 299952 297956 296960 296964
      299970 300975 304983 308983 311982 316980 324977 335975
      343972 349965 355958 361950 363947 365943 367934 368929
 1.50 361936 361932 360931 356929 348930 338933 332938 326939
      322941 323948 319950 315948 310949 307951 300957 299961
      300964 302970 303974 305977 310978 317972 319964 323960
      326957 330957 331962 330968 331971 336972 339971 344968
      346964 350956 352952 355949 358947 360943 361936
 2.00 358941 358935 356932 349932 343934 338935 336937 332943
      332949 334951 339956 337960 340962 343960 346952 352948
      357943 358941
 2.00 316960 317956 316952 314951 310951 308952 307955 305958
      303960 302962 305964 306966 305971 308972 310971 312969
      314965 315962 316960
 3.00 345945 346943 345941 344941 343940 341939 340939 339938
      338939 337941 338943 338945 339947 340947 341948 343948
      344947 345947 345945

$$





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