Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 022209
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
509 PM EST MON MAR 02 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 03/0000 UTC THRU MAR 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

18Z UPDATE... NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PRELIM QPF FCST
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.   MUSHER

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWEST

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BECOME PROGRESSIVE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
CLOSING OFF JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
EARLY TUESDAY.  THE INCREASED PROGRESSION WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S.   MEANWHILE---THE NEXT CLOSING OFF UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP AS HIGH A PW VALUES AS THIS LEAD
SYSTEM WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED FROM
COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

GREAT BASIN--ROCKIES

HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE EJECTING SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN-CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW
TOTALS THROUGH LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
WASATCH OF UT.  POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

NORTHERN PLAINS---UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES

THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL BE PUSHING QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TUESDAY.  STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF
FAST MOVING OVERRUNNING SNOWS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS--UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY.  THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVY PRECIP/SNOW TOTALS---WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED.

SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC---LIGHT TO
 MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGION TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
ICING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY---CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HANGS ON IN
THE WAKE OF THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH


DAYS 2/3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THE QUICK PROGRESSION SHOULD KEEP
TOTALS LIGHT TO MODERATE.

MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM
CANADA AND PHASING WITH AN ELONGATED TROF EDGING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HIGH IMPACT PRECIPITATION EVENT
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
 A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT INCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE NATION.  THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY...AN
ABUNDANCE OF GULF MOISTURE PULLING NORTH AHEAD OF THE PHASED
LONGWAVE TROF...AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER JET DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT A GENEROUS AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER
DOSE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT BEFORE
PRECIPITATION GETS A CHANCE TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ON SNOW-COVERED GROUND COULD RESULT IN LOCAL RUNOFF
PROBLEMS.  A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA...AND
A MODERATE RISK AREA WAS INTRODUCED OVER WEST VIRGINIA.  THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT DIMINISHES ON THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY AND
PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE PUSHING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WITH
THIS EVENT...PLEASE REFER TO THE WWD SUITE OF PRODUCTS AND
DISCUSSION.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS
BEING JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER/FLATTER WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A ECWMF/GFS BLEND.



ORAVEC/GERHARDT

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 521821 521813 519810 514801 509791 504782 500775 495770
      484758 470743 464737 462734 457732 454730 449731 438733
      427731 418730 411727 402727 382727 377728 374730 369736
      366742 364747 362751 359763 356768 355772 352782 349787
      348791 328798 323806 320808 320812 318822 319832 320839
      321846 320851 317855 315862 312869 309880 309885 307888
      305893 300897 297900 293903 285910 288915 292916 293915
      297916 295921 292924 286933 281939 277946 272952 268956
      266960 260966 258968 252970 247970 245971 241972 242975
      246982 255997 259004 264007 270008 279011 293012 299013
      305014 307015 311011 322999 328992 330988 333984 343974
      357965 365961 370958 374958 380955 387954 391952 396952
      399949 402949 405952 407956 410960 415969 415976 417982
      413006 412022 412029 409032 402048 398050 393049 385046
      380044 374044 369044 365046 357049 353052 351053 349050
      343050 338051 334052 329049 324047 320048 314054 308060
      310064 309068 300070 289069 281066 271065 268064 262063
      259064 258068 257074 255079 253085 249088 248095 251098
      255106 261112 262117 266120 270123 273127 280124 288122
      296119 305115 308113 313112 316111 322111 329111 333113
      334117 336120 337126 340133 343138 348139 353142 359143
      363142 368144 376148 381151 385152 393145 396143 399142
      400146 390162 389170 388178 389183 391186 399190 403191
      405189 409185 410181 412176 414174 431136 434136 435140
      436145 436152 437158 439163 443166 446171 447175 445177
      443178 443182 443186 450193 456188 459185 461181 462178
      461173 461169 462166 466165 479173 489175 495170 499167
      501164 504152 503147 500142 493133 489131 487123 483113
      482107 482101 483085
 0.01 483085 482078 482070 481067 481062 478057 476053 474059
      471064 469067 466065 465058 465050 466031 470019 472012
      475004 479994 482988 485982 489972 489962 491957 492955
      505939 508903 508887 511880 514875 516874 517869 517863
      519845 521821
 0.01 455708 453702 450705 447708 442709 439713 440716 440722
      439728 441729 446728 451726 451721 452716 453710 455708
 0.01 359212 359209 356207 353206 352203 350194 348187 345174
      345170 343167 336164 328162 323159 312152 301144 297140
      288139 282140 278144 268153 266155 265159 268165 273169
      279167 289162 295159 299159 304160 301165 302170 309181
      316191 327200 333202 336197 337195 338196 341199 344204
      347209 351211 356214 359212
 0.01 367117 367113 367108 364106 363104 359103 356103 354104
      352106 351110 352113 354115 356116 360117 363118 367117
 0.25 477857 473845 468834 462827 460825 460821 460812 458806
      455799 448787 444783 438783 432783 429780 425777 419776
      414775 408776 401782 394790 392803 390812 390822 389829
      387834 383845 379855 376868 376875 378880 380881 383880
      386877 393866 399856 404844 407839 412837 416840 418844
      418860 419865 417869 415874 414879 415887 416892 418894
      426900 436906 444913 450922 452929 453937 450948 448962
      443974 438987 432998 430004 428011 427028 425035 423041
      418049 415053 411054 404054 399057 393061 387063 384067
      380066 372059 369056 364057 361061 358063 357066 361070
      366072 369075 370079 374086 380089 386089 394090 398089
      402086 408082 411082 416085 419088 427098 434104 439105
      444107 449109 454110 456107 460106 458100 455094 451090
      447087 449084 452079 451073 444063 443057 443050 445044
      446036 444028 445018 448004 452989 452985 452981 454977
      459968 464957 468947 468938 470932 472915 474907 474904
      473900 471893 470884 469877 467871 467865 471863 477857
 0.25 450819 449818 447817 446817 446816 444816 443817 444818
      446817 447819 448820 449819 450819
 0.25 432111 431107 430105 425105 423107 422110 419112 412110
      411104 410100 406100 403105 398109 387114 381117 377122
      374128 377130 381128 393123 406123 411121 418120 425119
      429116 432111
 0.25 341098 341096 340094 339093 339091 339090 338089 337086
      335085 334084 332083 331084 330086 330088 331090 333092
      335094 335095 336096 337097 338098 340100 341098
 0.25 334058 332055 330055 329055 328055 328057 328058 330059
      332059 334058
 0.25 331883 331880 331878 331876 332874 331872 331870 331867
      331865 330863 329863 328865 328866 328868 328870 328872
      327874 328876 328878 328881 329882 329883 331884 331883
 0.25 319095 319091 317088 313084 306081 300078 294075 287074
      280072 273071 267072 263078 261084 259092 259100 260102
      264105 270107 275108 289108 303105 313099 319095
 0.50 432097 432094 431093 430092 430090 429089 428087 427087
      426086 425089 426091 428093 428094 429095 430097 431097
      432097
 0.50 428065 429058 427053 423054 420060 417064 412061 408058
      405057 403058 396066 392067 389068 387070 386075 389079
      393082 395084 398083 401080 406077 417076 421075 426072
      428065
 0.50 409115 409112 409110 409109 407108 406109 405111 404111
      403112 401111 400111 398112 397113 396114 395115 395117
      396117 397117 399118 401117 403117 404117 406116 408116
      409115
 0.50 380078 380074 379071 378069 376067 374064 371062 370061
      367061 366065 368068 371070 372073 374075 376077 377078
      380078
 0.50 308091 307087 303083 294078 283075 273073 269075 266080
      265085 264092 265099 270101 281104 290102 300099 304096
      307092 308091
 1.00 299090 300087 297084 292082 287080 279078 274077 271081
      268087 271091 275096 281097 287096 293095 298092 299090
 1.50 288087 286086 285085 284084 283082 281082 279082 277083
      276084 275085 275087 275088 277089 278090 280091 282091
      283091 284090 286089 287089 288088 288087

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 507635 506642 505647 503658 508682 508687 508693 507706
      507716 505721 503726 501734 506756 507763 509768 508773
      509780 509786 508791 509805 507833 505838 503845 500855
      492870 483874 480875 478880 476890 474894 471898 470900
      467900 465896 465890 465883 465875 459856 455855 450855
      448855 445852 442849 442844 442837 441833 440830 436826
      432824 425821 414833 411836 409841 406851 399876 395883
      394889 394897 396902 395906 394920 393927 393933 393938
      391941 391953 390956 389963 386975 383984 380994 383004
      384010 388011 392002 396989 396972 397970 400968 403970
      404973 406975 409972 412973 414977 415982 415989 415001
      416014 416029 414035 413043 415050 415055 416060 416066
      412073 397085 391092 386093 382097 379099 376098 376088
      373084 372080 373076 371073 364069 360070 356073 351079
      345085 343098 342105 345107 347111 351114 353116 353118
      345114 335112 330110 325111 320112 316115 312118 308118
      304116 301112 292098 262103 255097 245095 243092 243087
      245083 243079 239072 238065 239061 241057 245054 251053
      256055 264060 267062 273064 282065 287066 289064 291060
      289056 282054 280051 280047 284039 288028 288025 285022
      283020 283014 282012 284009 288005 289003 289000 290990
      284985 281981 281974 281968 283964 288957 296946 302929
      302922 300918 296910 294908 295904 295897 294884 301869
      304865 306861 312853 317845 320842 323842 325840 331838
      333835 336823 338816 340805 339799 340795 335791 330790
      325790 315792 313788 312781 317776 323769 324760 329753
      337745 349729 359716 362712 365708 368697 373681 377674
      379668 385655 393645
 0.01 398115 397115 396114 394112 392113 391114 390114 389115
      387116 385117 385118 384120 384122 384123 386123 388123
      390123 390121 392119 394118 395117 396117 397115 398115
 0.01 381060 381058 380058 379057 377056 375056 374056 372057
      370059 372060 373060 375062 377063 378063 380062 381060
 0.01 366124 367122 366121 365121 363121 364123 364124 366124
      366124
 0.01 322160 314148 311142 312138 314135 315126 312122 295120
      288118 286120 285124 286128 285131 281136 273139 270145
      268148 268151 272158 280159 287159 297160 305163 313166
      319165 322160
 0.01 327068 326064 325059 321055 318053 314056 312060 310064
      308068 306072 306075 309075 311077 316077 320076 323076
      325074 326070 327068
 0.25 465742 464733 461729 458726 457721 459715 460709 457693
      458682 458675 455671 449663 447655 444652 439648 435647
      426647 420648 413650 408653 404657 393671 387681 384690
      379701 377711 373724 368733 365742 364748 366753 371761
      374767 375774 377788 376793 374798 364818 360827 354835
      350842 346853 316935 312945 308953 305958 302965 301969
      301977 302981 305985 309992 312995 315994 317996 319002
      318007 319009 322010 326008 334004 340997 344991 349989
      354982 357972 359961 365952 370941 373930 375924 376916
      379904 391863 398840 403828 407818 412810 418803 424795
      426790 427784 427779 425774 422771 416765 416758 418754
      427761 436763 442760 445756 450755 454755 459753 464748
      465742
 0.25 392077 392075 392074 390073 390075 390076 391077 392078
      392077
 0.25 311030 311028 310027 308026 306027 306028 305030 306031
      308030 310031 311030
 0.25 297088 297084 296082 294078 290075 286072 275069 266065
      255061 249062 248065 248068 252077 252080 253084 257087
      261088 267091 270094 276095 281094 285092 295089 297088
 0.50 414698 414691 413684 412677 410673 406671 402670 396675
      390683 387691 385696 384702 383711 381721 378730 375741
      374745 376750 379753 380760 384768 389769 393766 398759
      403750 405741 411723 413712 414701 414698
 0.50 417790 417785 415782 411779 400777 395779 392783 387785
      384790 373810 368819 364829 354849 350861 348873 332914
      321935 315956 311967 310974 312978 318979 325978 334975
      339973 341969 350960 356954 361945 366935 369928 371922
      376898 384875 387863 390853 398828 407808 413799 417790
 0.50 290085 288079 282074 274072 267069 260066 255066 253069
      255077 258084 266086 273089 280091 286089 290085
 1.00 405790 397790 390791 387794 383800 380807 370824 367831
      364838 360847 357857 356867 354875 350884 347893 343901
      341910 337918 332926 329934 329941 332950 336954 341952
      346947 351941 359924 362916 365907 368899 372889 379874
      385855 388846 389838 392828 396818 402802 403793 405790
 1.00 330965 331962 330962 328962 326964 326965 325967 326967
      327967 328966 330965 330965
 1.00 274079 273077 272076 271075 270075 269074 267074 265074
      263073 261073 260074 261076 262076 263077 264078 265079
      265080 266081 268081 270082 272081 274079 274079
 1.50 396807 397801 395797 390798 388799 380812 374824 369838
      363852 360860 359867 357875 354883 352889 351897 344911
      338923 335930 334933 335936 337939 339940 343939 348934
      351928 355921 360907 363902 367894 372882 383853 385846
      386836 388827 390822 396807
 2.00 392805 393803 392802 390803 389806 391807 392806 392805
 2.00 383845 383838 381832 380829 378829 376832 372842 367851
      363860 362872 358882 356887 356892 355899 353903 348911
      343921 339929 340933 345932 350925 352920 353912 357904
      363896 367888 372878 375870 381850 383845
 2.00 378825 379823 377823 377825 378826 378825
 3.00 375857 375855 374853 374851 373853 372854 372855 371857
      370858 369860 368862 368865 369866 370867 371867 372867
      373864 373862 374860 374859 375857


24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 510297 504292 497284 492277 487269 483261 482256 480249
      475244 473240 474234 484236 488237 492241 494243 494238
      490228 485222 481219 480213 482211 487210 491211 494215
      504228 508237 512247 516254 523262
 0.01 443630 444639 443643 444647 444656 442663 440671 438677
      437695 437705 438715 437724 434730 432737 433749 435751
      435756 433764 432771 430777 423789 417802 411817 406828
      401841 394856 388868 378893 366920 357945 350958 346963
      343969 331995 322001 319003 317007 315011 315015 318029
      321033 326038 333042 337047 340052 340057 338060 332061
      324060 318057 314054 310052 306051 300048 294045 289039
      282031 272025 265022 258019 249012 247010 244010 241015
      236019 230021
 0.01 375655 372661 367666 361682 360686 360691 358698 356708
      353715 346728 337742 321767 317774 314781 310797 309805
      304812 296824 288835 292849 284860 276875 269888 264903
      253933 244940 239942 230942
 0.01 527201 526192 525182 522175 514172 509170 505171 503173
      504177 505182 512186 516193 519200 521203 525204 527201
 0.01 369052 369050 368049 367049 365049 363049 361049 360051
      359051 358053 357053 356055 357056 359056 361056 363055
      365054 367054 368052 369052
 0.01 322093 320092 319090 315089 313090 309091 307093 305094
      303095 302099 305101 308101 310100 313099 316097 318096
      321095 322093
 0.01 231998 233998 235998 236998 238999 240997 238995 238993
      238991 237989 236987 235985 233984 231984
 0.25 522267 521266 520265 519264 517264 515264 514265 513266
      513268 513269 514271 515272 516273 517274 519275
 0.25 508248 507245 506242 504239 503236 501234 500232 498229
      496228 497232 498235 499238 502240 503244 505246 506248
      508248
 0.25 427678 427667 424658 418654 411652 405654 396660 391666
      388672 377702 370716 361731 355743 352751 351760 351770
      348779 344786 342794 342804 343811 345820 345829 342837
      338845 328857 321870 314883 299910 295916 293924 293929
      294933 299937 307939 312945 317952 321952 325951 330947
      335942 344931 353917 361903 375876 382862 390845 395831
      401816 403806 404795 404783 405774 410759 415743 420724
      424706 426693 427678
 0.25 281001 280999 279997 277996 275996 273997 273998 273999
      275001 277002 278002 280002 281001
 0.25 262956 261953 257952 255951 254952 250953 246953 245954
      241955 241957 243958 245957 248957 252958 254958 257958
      259958 262956
 0.50 421687 420678 417672 412666 407664 400667 395674 389688
      385701 379714 372727 368734 366740 363755 363763 361772
      355786 352794 352802 352811 353815 356817 360817 362819
      361826 351849 346853 340857 336861 332867 324879 324887
      329889 329896 334899 333909 331915 328921 326926 325931
      326935 331936 337932 341928 344923 351911 359898 365885
      371872 378859 384844 389831 395818 399804 400794 399786
      400776 402769 406755 408749 410740 411731 414723 417717
      419709 421697 421687
 1.00 385783 386781 384779 383780 381782 380784 379784 378786
      377787 376789 376790 378789 379789 380789 382787 383786
      385784 385783
 1.00 385818 384814 382813 380811 379814 370824 367830 366833
      365838 365848 363855 359870 356881 358883 359881 360878
      363872 365864 368858 370851 374846 377840 380832 384820
      385818
 1.00 355885 354885 353886 352888 351890 350890 349892 349894
      349895 349897 349898 351898 353897 354894 355894 356892
      356890 356888 356887 355885

$$





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