Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 161858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EST TUE JAN 16 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 17/0000 UTC THRU JAN 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN U.S...

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT. A
BROAD AREA OF LIGHT...MAINLY WINTRY...PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT. WITHIN THIS BROAD SHIELD IS FOCUSED TWO REGIONS OF
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. THE FIRST AREA IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST PA INTO EASTERN NY AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND. INITIALLY WILL HAVE A BROAD AREA OF WAA SNOWFALL OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THIS AREA. AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
A CONSOLIDATED AREA OF VORTICITY WITHIN THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
TOUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT HELPING ENHANCE
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. MEANWHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ADVECTING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. THUS LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DURATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER BANDING POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK LOW DEVELOPS AND THE NEUTRALLY TILTED TROUGH
APPROACHES...RESULTING IN THE ENHANCED ASCENT AND HIGHER MOISTURE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. WPC
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/UKMET AND 0Z ECMWF
FOR QPF ACROSS THIS AREA GIVEN THE RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN
AMONGST THESE SOLUTIONS. THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE WERE A BIT MORE
INCONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT DID INCORPORATE A SMALL
AMOUNT OF THEM INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/NC/VA. AS
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT
AND TAKES ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT...ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE ALL GENERALLY TRENDED INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE RESULTANT QPF. THUS WPC FOLLOWS CLOSE
TO A MULTI MODEL GLOBAL AND HIGH RES BLEND. THIS RESULTS IN AN
INCREASE IN AMOUNTS FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENT TRENDS SEEN AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
IN ADJUSTING THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. END UP WITH A SWATH
OF 0.25"-0.5" FROM PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SC INTO CENTRAL NC
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

WHERE FORCING SPLITS THE AREA...ANTICIPATE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN
QPF IN BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIONS OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

...NORTHWEST...

A STRONG DEEP LAYER LOW WILL MOVE TO OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE HEAVIER QPF WILL STAY
OFFSHORE AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN WA...WITH SOME COLD FRONTAL
PRECIP MOVING INTO WESTERN WA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR AMOUNTS
WPC FOLLOWED A MULTI MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 493336 491336 490336 488336 486336 485336 484336 483336
      481335 479336
 0.01 521268 523254 523247 520241 515219 511207 514209 517215
      521219 525217 527215 530210 531201 529195 524184 520178
      517176 511170 499166 489159 481155 478157 477164 485172
      484181 482184 482188 483191 481193 478197 475199 471201
      456214 452215 448219 444228 443232 438234 430238 423238
      420240 413244 409246 406247 404244 408238 407234 404231
      400229 399230 398234 400237 402244 400247 397247 393244
      389247 387249 384254 378263 372274 369279 368281 367285
      368290 370293 374292 378293 381292 383293 385296 386299
      389302
 0.01 466622 471624 476628 484640 484649 485659 484666 482675
      477687 474694 472700 466710 463715 461721 455733 451738
      448744 444752 441760 440776 436789 433792 428795 425801
      422800 425794 425791 423790 415791 409794 404799 399802
      389813 380822 372830 368833 363836 359839 356844 352848
      347851 342854 339856 337860 330870 326876 322882 316893
      304916 299926 296930 294935 290948 286953 283958 275971
      272976 267979 262982 256982 251980 248976 241984 233984
      233977 231971 231961 231952 233946 231938 235933 239929
      242927 245927 252927 259925 262921 265916 268911 271906
      276896 271893 268890 269888 272874 273869 276867 282864
      284862 288861 293858 298855 294851 295846 299841 304833
      314824 318821 322814 325808 322802 320794 315788 314785
      311786 307790 302793 297796 292799 288799 281797 276796
      271795 267790 264786 265782 268779 272776 276772 281769
      285764 291759 296754 305746 308743 309741 310736 309727
      313725 323719 346704 354702 359698 364692 367687 374679
      383671 387665 392662 396657 400654 411645 416642 420637
 0.01 543820 543812 542807 540790 538778 535768 533765 530763
      520766 515772 512774 510771 508755 500757 489769 486772
      483774 476781 471788 466792 455807 456820 456825 458830
      464831 469828 471833 469836 466851 464861 464866 467863
      469859 469853 470851 472853 474858 475860 480860 484859
      485861 489861 495867 497870 501870 502867 502860 502851
      503846 503842 505839 507837 515835 531842 533843 536841
      540839 541836 543820
 0.01 496148 495143 490139 488134 481132 477134 472138 475139
      482141 486146 489150 493153 496148
 0.01 491186 491184 489183 487185 486187 485187 484189 485191
      487191 488192 489190 490188 491186
 0.01 452181 453174 454166 454161 451158 447160 447165 444169
      443176 441181 440188 442188 446187 449182 452181
 0.01 453825 450819 448815 445813 438813 431809 424810 421812
      421815 424824 428831 434830 437828 441827 445829 448829
      453828 453825
 0.01 452860 452852 450850 447853 444856 439858 436859 433861
      431861 426860 419861 415860 410860 406862 408866 414872
      424872 428872 433871 438871 442868 448863 452860
 0.25 504313 507301 508293 510287 514277 517267 518262 518257
      515245 513234 510228 505218 503215 499212 481208 480213
      482217 485221 489224 490232 484235 482232 480226 477225
      473226 468230 464231 461233 453233 449234 446239 444243
      441246 436250 428251 425253 422258 417265 415272 415284
      414291 411296 410303 412306 419310 438316 447318 455318
      461321 470322 486326 494327 498326
 0.25 460654 459646 457641 455639 449643 444647 440650 435656
      428664 427672 424677 418682 413686 414689 414691 412692
      411689 399691 392694 386697 372703 361709 353715 332731
      324738 316746 310757 307762 309765 312764 324760 335755
      356741 362738 370738 375738 381736 386733 390728 395722
      400719 407710 412708 414708 414713 403737 402743 402747
      403750 406755 407757 411758 415757 422754 427750 430744
      435739 437735 441730 442725 446710 449704 453698 456692
      458687 460680 461674 461661 460654
 0.25 376780 376776 375774 371772 364772 361775 354782 348790
      342799 340805 342812 343815 346815 350812 356805 363797
      366793 369790 373786 376781 376780
 0.25 289872 288872 286871 285871 283871 281872 280873 279875
      279877 279879 281880 283879 284879 285878 286877 287876
      287875 288873 289872
 0.50 515259 514253 513248 510239 507230 503223 499216 495215
      490216 488214 486214 487219 490221 492224 492230 493234
      491236 487236 484238 482236 481232 479228 477228 473230
      470233 462234 455235 449236 451240 455242 459245 461250
      459256 457259 452262 440275 435279 430286 426293 420300
      421304 425307 430309 438312 447313 453311 461314 491323
      494320 497316 500306 503294 507285 509278 511268 515259
 0.50 451681 450667 447663 444664 441665 437668 433674 433680
      432685 430694 430702 425703 425710 423714 420721 412737
      411741 411746 414747 416745 422737 427732 433715 435705
      439698 447693 450687 451681
 0.50 382722 381718 378718 372718 364721 360723 349729 338735
      330744 326747 325751 332750 337747 345739 349735 354733
      357731 361730 366732 369734 375732 380727 382722
 1.00 503278 505269 505263 505258 504255 502251 498247 493244
      489241 487241 485243 482249 481257 477271 476276 477281
      476288 477293 480294 484292 488291 493291 495292 496288
      497284 499282 502280 503278
 1.00 502241 504239 504236 503233 502230 500229 499227 498227
      497226 496228 496231 497232 498234 499237 500237 501240
      502241 502241
 1.00 472292 472287 471282 471276 466274 462276 460278 457279
      455282 456285 458289 459294 461298 465300 468298 471294
      472292
 1.00 481241 480239 480238 480236 479234 479233 478231 476230
      475232 474232 473234 473236 473239 473240 475242 476243
      478243 480243 481241
 1.50 499266 500261 500258 498255 496252 494250 491249 489249
      488254 488257 488262 488266 489270 490273 492274 494274
      496271 498268 499266
 1.50 478238 478235 477234 476232 474234 474237 475239 477239
      478238

$$





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