Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 20/1200 UTC THRU NOV 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

GREAT LAKES

DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING DAY 1 TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES--WITH
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.  ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WILL CONTINUE OFF OF ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES---SUPPORTING LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOWS DOWNWIND OF ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES.  THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ALONG THE LONG AXES OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT WELL DEFINED SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS FOR FAR WESTERN NY---IN THE VICINITY OF BUFFALO AND TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE TUG HILL REGION.  THE DAY
1 QPF RELIED ON THE HI RES GUIDANCE--ARW---NMMB---NAM CONEST AND
CMC GEM FOR QPF DETAILS---WITH HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS DEPICTED WHERE
THE SINGLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SETS UP.   VERY HEAVY SNOWS--WITH
ADDITIONAL MAX TOTALS IN THE 2-4` RANGE LIKELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS PERIOD.  PERSISTENT MULTI-BANDED SNOW
SQUALLS OFF THE REMAINING LAKES WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWS---ALBEIT NOT AS GREAT AS IN THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DAY 1 OFF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO EASTERN TX. THIS WILL SUPPORT
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD WITH QPF
DETAILS---LEADING TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THESE DETAILS.
THE GFS AND GFSP WERE FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY AS THEY SEEMED TO BE A
GOOD CONSENSUS GIVEN THE MODEL DETAIL SPREAD.  GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE---QPF AMOUNTS KEPT IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE.

WEST COAST

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST PUSH
OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE WEST COAST DAY 1.   THE
STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA THIS
PERIOD---WITH WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  PW VALUES AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ANOMALOUS---MOSTLY NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM BEING HEAVY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS--WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE.

FLORIDA KEYS INTO FAR SOUTH FLORIDA

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
INTO CENTRAL CUBA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DAY 1.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE KEYS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND AN INCREASING SHOWER
THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS.   DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS FOR THE KEYS INTO FAR
SOUTH FLORIDA DAY 1.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 466622 470628 471635 471640 472652 471663 468669 463673
      461672 454673 450674 448677 442684 438690 431695 426696
      423699 414701 411702 408698 406695 407691 411683 416677
      420668 424662 428654 435639 438636 440630
 0.01 533211 533205 532200 528190 524181 518174 516171 511168
      507172 506179 507185 511193 517201 522208 525211 528212
      533211
 0.01 519271 521264 519260 518249 515237 512228 507219 501211
      497207 492203 486201 482202 475207 468209 463208 459209
      456211 453213 450213 448211 445208 444205 447204 450203
      454199 457195 461190 463186 469178 475172 477168 480167
      486174 493181 499185 500178 497171 490164 462141 448152
      442151 438154 430158 424164 427170 437172 444170 448173
      449178 445181 442185 437189 433190 421187 420183 417179
      414177 409175 407175 406172 404167 397161 389160 388157
      384156 376152 372154 368157 359153 356151 351150 348151
      346156 343168 340168 336166 331164 326165 322169 320173
      321177 325180 330188 339202 341206 344209 348217 356223
      359228 357236 359242 362246 366248 372250 377252 380255
      390258 396259 400259 408259 448257 451256 457256 460256
      465257 472264 478270 492285 501294 505292 508289 515283
      519271
 0.01 493145 492142 489138 486134 483130 480128 476126 473126
      472133 472138 477139 480139 483142 486145 488147 493146
      493145
 0.01 473700 471696 467699 456707 449707 447707 445710 439711
      438714 441715 446716 445720 442723 437724 430727 427729
      429731 432731 439730 441731 444730 451729 453730 457729
      462728 464720 470709 472705 473700
 0.01 479870 479861 476854 472838 469827 468816 466807 465794
      466786 465776 464767 461767 459765 455766 453769 450775
      446783 443791 441797 435800 431801 428801 429793 434788
      438782 440772 443766 447752 451738 449736 447737 442739
      438739 423746 420747 420750 422757 424765 423772 419777
      416778 408783 401787 391793 385796 381802 381806 384807
      390804 395800 400798 402800 407804 410805 412807 413816
      415823 416828 419828 422822 425817 425813 427809 429812
      429817 428820 425825 421832 419839 417855 416860 417865
      417868 420869 424868 437868 448865 455860 459862 461865
      462870 462876 459879 459883 465916 467918 469915 472905
      475898 477890 479870
 0.01 440212 441205 439200 435201 431205 429207 425209 422210
      418213 418216 421218 424217 428215 432214 437215 440212
 0.01 447116 446111 446104 448099 445096 441096 438098 436100
      433104 432106 434112 434115 436115 441116 446116 447116
 0.01 381179 381172 377169 372170 368171 362172 360168 356165
      351164 349166 348170 346173 347178 349188 357185 359181
      363180 366179 370182 373180 378179 381179
 0.01 366965 364956 361946 359941 359933 359927 357923 354913
      350905 345895 340888 336885 334884 331887 330892 329897
      330902 331909 330916 318927 303938 300937 296938 290943
      283949 276955 269959 260961 255962 249963 241967 239974
      241977 245979 256981 264985 272988 276989 281989 286988
      286992 286996 291000 299000 302998 305995 312988 314984
      317980 324976 333974 357974 363972 366965
 0.01 266796 261788 257786 252785 248787 245792 241801 237810
      236822 237828 238832 240833 244831 247826 250816 251811
      254807 263802 266796
 0.25 516264 516259 514253 510241 501222 497215 491213 487214
      487218 489222 494233 497242 497246 495247 492243 489240
      485241 481242 479236 476233 472235 472241 476245 480246
      481252 485262 491270 496280 499283 502286 506286 510281
      516264
 0.25 471868 472863 471858 469851 466846 461844 456842 449841
      446848 447852 450854 455850 459854 461861 464868 467872
      470871 471868
 0.25 470893 471890 471888 470885 468885 466885 465888 465889
      465890 465893 465895 465898 465900 467902 468900 469898
      470895 470894 470893
 0.25 457791 457785 456781 453780 450785 448792 448798 446801
      442801 439803 435810 434814 437817 439818 444819 451820
      454818 455813 457803 457793 457791
 0.25 446746 443747 441747 437745 434749 433752 432759 432764
      433768 435770 438768 440764 442760 444756 445751 446746
 0.25 423246 425243 424241 421238 412231 413222 412217 408213
      401208 393201 384197 381195 380198 382203 388210 394216
      402223 401226 397226 394225 391222 386221 382222 377222
      373220 371222 372228 375232 381238 384242 389245 399248
      406249 410248 423246
 0.25 430783 429774 427774 426777 423782 419786 418794 417802
      417809 417813 419814 422808 424803 426796 428789 430783
 0.25 305956 299955 292955 287957 282960 278964 275968 278972
      285974 292974 297970 300966 302960 305956
 0.25 253804 253802 252801 250802 248804 247806 246809 245811
      245813 246813 247812 248810 249809 249808 250806 251806
      252804 253804
 0.50 506282 505274 504265 501261 496256 494251 490245 488243
      486246 486251 488258 490263 494269 497274 501280 506282
 0.50 502241 502238 502235 501234 501233 500230 499227 499226
      498224 498223 496222 495223 495225 495228 495229 496231
      496233 497234 498237 499239 499240 500241 502241
 0.50 468863 468861 468858 467856 465854 463854 463856 462859
      463861 463864 464865 465866 466867 466866 467865 468863
 0.50 455801 455796 455791 454786 453782 451784 450789 450792
      450797 451802 452806 452809 454811 454808 455803 455801
 0.50 444752 443749 442751 440750 437751 436753 436758 436763
      436765 438765 439763 441761 442757 443754 444752
 0.50 412238 407235 402233 395231 392229 390227 385226 382227
      381229 384234 389237 394240 401242 406243 412240 412238
 0.50 428786 428781 427779 425781 424784 423787 422789 421792
      420797 419799 419804 421807 422805 424801 425798 426796
      426792 427788 428786
 1.00 441757 440755 440757 441758 441757
 1.00 426789 427786 426784 425786 424788 424789 423791 423792
      422794 422796 422798 421799 421801 422802 422801 423799
      424798 424796 425795 425793 426791 426789 426789

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