Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 28/1200 UTC THRU MAR 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EASTERN U.S...

IN A PATTERN LOOKING MORE LIKE APRIL THAN FEBRUARY...WITH RECORD
WARMTH AND PLENTIFUL COVERAGE OF 1.00-1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...THE NOW ESTABLISHED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SWING INTO A NEUTRAL TILT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
THE PLAINS...SPURRING AN OUTBREAK OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM
THE MISSOURI / MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
STRONG ENOUGH THAT MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL NOT ENTIRELY
DOMINATE...SO THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT TO THE QPF
PATTERN FROM MULTIPLE MODELS. WITH SUCH A DEEP TROUGH THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STRENGTH...LEADING TO RELATIVELY GREATER FOCUS TO THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN ALONG CERTAIN WSW-ENE ORIENTED SWATHS. ONE
SUCH FOCUS IS LIKELY TO AFFECT NORTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS PARTS OF
IN/MI...WHILE ANOTHER IS LIKELY TO AFFECT MO/AR ACROSS THROUGH
MUCH OF KY...AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN IN/OH. THIS LATTER SWATH WILL
SEE BROADER INFLOW AND GREATER INSTABILITY WITHIN THAT
INFLOW...AND THERE HAS BEEN A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL ALONG THIS SWATH
DATING BACK A FEW DAYS IN THE MODELS.

AS A BASIS FOR THE QPF...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN...AND IS MORE GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BACK
INTO THE RELATIVELY DRIER ENVIRONMENT OVER AR/MO. GIVEN STEEPER
LAPSE RATES / STRONGER INSTABILITY HERE...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
HEIGHT FALLS THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING...WE FAVORED THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AND OTHER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. QPF PRODUCTION BEGAN WITH A
50/30/20 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF / 00Z GFS / PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.
WE THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WRF-ARW AND NSSL WRF GIVEN THEIR
SIMILARITY TO THE ECMWF AS TO WHERE THEY ILLUSTRATE THE MOST
FOCUSED PRECIPITATION AREAS.

HEAVY LOCAL RAIN RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN
U.S. AS FAR EAST AS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE...HOWEVER...WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...CULMINATING IN
A PRONOUNCED HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND INCLUDING
MUCH OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG MOISTURE FLUX
ANOMALIES DEVELOP...WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING
ALONG THE FLANKS OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE BASE OF THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL STEADILY
SLIDE EASTWARD WITH AN ASSOCIATED 850-700 MB CONVEYOR BELT
DELIVERING AIR MARKED BY 0.50-INCH-PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH
SOME HIGHER LEVEL SPILLOVER ALSO EXTENDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND MUCH OF COLORADO. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL
BE TEMPERED BEYOND 12Z...AS THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH
BECOMES PINCHED OFF AND LEFT BEHIND...AND THE TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES OUT TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. STILL...THE EARLY PERIODS
TODAY...INCLUDING PRE-12Z...WILL FURTHER COMPOUND THE ALREADY
MODERATELY HEAVY TOTALS OF RAIN AND SNOW OCCURRING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF LIQUID POSSIBLE IN
PARTS OF AZ...AND BROAD 0.25-0.75 INCH AREAS ELSEWHERE..AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL COLORADO. THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO QPF...AND
GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WE WERE ABLE TO USE A SIMILAR BLEND TO
THAT USED ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY...INCORPORATING THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND WPC CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO PERFORMING A CHECK
AGAINST NDFD.


...NORTHWEST U.S...

AFTER THE ROUSING VIDEO OF LIGHTNING STRIKING THE SEATTLE SPACE
NEEDLE YESTERDAY...TUESDAY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE CALM...AS THE
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCED LIFT WILL SLIDE
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...REPLACED BY LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT RISES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN STATES. THIS CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SQUASH PRECIPITATION
ENTIRELY...HOWEVER...AS INITIALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION HELPING TO BUILD THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE...WILL PROMOTE SHOWERY WEATHER. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND BITTERROOTS WILL BE FAVORED FOR GREATER
AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH 24-HOUR TOTALS GENERALLY
REMAINING UNDER A HALF INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 528250 525244 521241 516237 514236 513233 512228 514224
      516222 520224 525228 528229 530227 533222 535213 536204
      536195 535188 533182 528173 523162 517153 513147 508143
      503141 506135 506132 503131 500126 495116 492103 491096
      491091 490086 490080 495082 499095 500096 501092 503083
      509070 511065 511058 508055 505052 508050 513051 517047
      518041 518035 516027 513022 511017 508013 506011 503010
      502006 503003 503995 501985 499980 496977 494975 491974
      485974 480976 475977 472979 469984 465996 465002 468009
      471026 469033 468043 475050 476054 476059 475068 475075
      475079 477080 479083 478084 477092 467090 465097 463098
      462097 457091 454086 453078 449072 446070 443069 442071
      443078 446082 447085 449087 447089 441088 435088 431088
      421091 419098 415101 411095 406091 405091 404095 404100
      402104 399108 394110 391113 390118 391123 395126 407129
      410129 414132 415133 416137 417143 415151 413152 409152
      405154 412161 418168 424180 424193 425196 425200 421200
      418199 416201 413205 417208 417211 416215 414222 410228
      406232 401236 394240 390245 393249 399253 403254 409256
      413255 423254 428254 433252 436253 439251 447253 452254
      459256 464257 467260 476268 488286 490289 493291 497293
      499295 505298 508299 510298
 0.01 507805 507796 505789 501780 491764 492756 491748 491740
      492735 494721 495712 496704 496697 494692 493685 490679
      485669 481664 475657 473655 469653 462652 454651 436650
      428649 426651 421653 402663 394670 386679 375694 372700
      366707 362713 355721 349727 342730 336739 329746 321750
      314755 312759 310764 308774 307788 304793 302795 299796
      294798 290801 291803 296805 312800 323798 328797 333797
      345805 348808 349816 345824 340831 338835 338841 336846
      333850 327858 324859 324862 321868 321874 319879 320892
      323899 325902 324906 321914 315931 305947 301958 299962
      299969 302977 306979 310979 319975 321974 324975 327978
      337978 343975 348972 354967 364962 368961 371957 376957
      379959 381962 382967 380972 378975 375978 373982 373986
      376988 381987 386984 390986 392991 397999 397006 395010
      395013 392014 388011 384020 382026 379032 373025 371024
      366025 362030 352040 345047 337052 332053 330056 328059
      330064 331066 330069 327074 321080 319084 316087 313090
      313094 315098 313103 310107 308112 309123 311129 314133
      323139 326139 331138 336139 339142 344143 347141 355138
      359138 362137 367137 369135 371129 372125 369121 370113
      373110 377110 382106 387098 393091 400083 405082 408079
      412076 414073 414068 413063 410059 409045 409033 406023
      402014 402010 404007 412994 417984 421975 425964 429956
      433952 437954 441957 446957 450955 453956 454961 455964
      454967 452974 448996 447003 446007 445018 445026 447032
      439034 444048 448051 451046 455039 457035 458028 458012
      458003 460998 462983 466969 470956 472950 473945 477934
      484917 488906 491898 498881 499876 499869 499862 500856
 0.01 500856 501855 502853 502852 502849 503848 504847 505844
      505841 506840 506839 507836 508836 508833 508831 507828
      507826 507823 507820 507818 507815 507813 507810 507807
      507805
 0.01 482193 480186 478181 473177 469176 468180 465184 462185
      460186 457192 456197 457199 460202 463203 466204 470203
      473201 478197 482193
 0.01 441178 441176 442173 441172 439171 437171 436172 435174
      434176 435179 436181 438180 440180 441178
 0.01 365766 365764 364762 363760 362760 362758 361756 360755
      359756 357759 356761 356762 355764 354766 353768 354771
      355772 357772 358771 360769 362769 363768 365766
 0.01 332169 327163 322160 315155 310151 301150 294146 293150
      294153 298160 301163 309161 318162 325166 328168 332169
      332169
 0.01 325814 324812 321812 319814 317815 314817 312818 310820
      308822 311823 314822 318821 319819 321819 323816 325814
 0.01 290816 288811 284810 273807 270805 271800 265791 262788
      257789 258795 261799 265803 266805 263806 259809 258813
      260819 263822 268824 272824 283821 288819 290816
 0.01 255799 255795 253793 248793 245790 242790 238791 236790
      232792 230794 229798 231804 232814 235822 241821 246815
      249809 252804 255799
 0.25 513274 515268 514263 513261 511262 509265 507268 504269
      500266 497258 497255 498252 502246 504239 504230 502221
      496210 489207 482207 476208 471211 459213 448217 442219
      437223 437226 440227 444228 451232 456233 460233 465231
      468227 474224 478224 480226 486231 484232 481232 474230
      471233 469237 473243 477247 489256 492258 493261 495267
      498274 502277 505277 510276 513274
 0.25 495815 492810 489815 484827 479831 475839 472855 470861
      467861 466858 469843 472830 473823 474815 476808 477800
      477790 475784 472765 472755 471749 469745 465743 459744
      448750 443752 438750 432740 420757 419763 417766 416765
      416763 417759 416755 416749 418740 420733 421727 421722
      423715 429704 428697 426692 424679 418676 413675 409674
      402675 397679 393683 384695 377705 370713 357731 354737
      354741 356742 361743 367740 378732 381732 382734 384744
      388758 390765 388773 387780 385784 382790 379794 366815
      360820 356826 348836 345846 345852 343860 337871 336878
      338884 339889 338893 337899 337905 339911 336917 335925
      333934 332938 333944 341950 346952 349947 350944 354944
      357949 362951 366949 374939 377936 381940 387955 391950
      393944 398931 400925 403919 407917 409917 409920 412926
      417928 417935 419937 421936 428926 435916 442901 447889
      454879 459871 461876 463885 464895 463902 462910 464914
      467917 470915 473909 476889 478884 481879 484875 487868
      490853 492838 494825 495815
 0.25 474156 473153 471150 469149 467147 465144 463143 460143
      459145 459149 460152 463154 465155 467157 470159 472158
      474156
 0.25 441110 440108 439107 437107 436107 435109 436112 438112
      440110 441110
 0.25 429776 429774 429771 428769 427769 426771 426772 426774
      427775 428776 428777 429776
 0.25 391070 391068 390068 390070 390071 391070
 0.25 382078 381077 379076 378078 379080 381080 382078
 0.25 376071 376066 373062 370059 372055 370051 364051 358054
      356058 357062 356071 350079 346088 344091 339089 335087
      333091 329101 327105 327111 329114 333117 341118 347118
      350117 349114 345107 360099 362096 364090 368084 375078
      376071
 0.25 344759 341756 337757 332758 329757 325756 322758 318765
      316772 314781 314785 315788 321784 325779 330774 334768
      341764 344759
 0.50 495223 495220 493217 490214 487213 486212 484212 481212
      478213 476215 478216 481218 484220 486221 489223 492225
      495223
 0.50 468222 469220 469218 468217 466217 464219 462219 461219
      460220 460221 462223 464223 465223 467223 468222
 0.50 465802 466794 465788 462780 455776 448773 444772 441774
      437780 434786 429791 425791 422790 417790 408790 403790
      398793 391794 385799 381804 378811 377820 374827 368846
      365853 363855 363861 361867 359870 355871 352868 352863
      354854 352850 349852 346862 342877 343881 346882 351879
      356874 357874 356879 356884 354889 351899 349905 347914
      342919 340926 339937 341942 344941 347931 348928 352925
      354926 355930 357934 358932 357919 360912 362909 366909
      369912 368919 368924 366928 365933 364938 368938 370936
      373930 376922 380916 382913 381910 378913 379907 382905
      385904 387900 390898 395902 397904 402905 410904 416900
      419900 421903 420908 419914 418919 422919 427914 431909
      437895 444881 454865 462832 463824 464814 465802
 0.50 413706 413692 412686 410682 406680 401681 394686 389693
      385699 380707 375712 366726 362733 361736 364738 370732
      375727 383722 388722 391725 391729 394733 398734 402733
      407731 410728 409722 411718 413706
 0.50 395929 396924 396920 395915 392914 391916 389918 387922
      386924 386929 385931 386934 386938 388941 390940 392938
      393935 394931 395929
 0.50 355835 355832 354832 353834 353835 352837 351839 352842
      354839 354837 355836 355835
 0.50 342100 342098 342097 341096 340095 338094 337095 336097
      336098 337099 338101 339101 341101 342100
 0.50 339108 337107 335106 333106 332108 331108 331110 331111
      332112 333113 335113 336113 337113 339111 339110 339108
 0.50 332765 330762 328761 324760 321763 320765 319767 318771
      318774 318778 319782 321779 323777 324775 326773 329770
      331768 332765
 1.00 398696 397695 396696 398696 398696
 1.00 440863 439863 440865 440863
 1.00 432819 433814 431812 429817 426822 423827 420833 418839
      415852 414861 412868 411874 411882 413883 415881 416875
      420860 424855 427852 431838 431833 430828 431821 432819
 1.00 415821 416816 413816 408818 404817 401813 397810 393811
      391809 389805 386808 385814 385823 381832 378836 376843
      372852 370857 369864 369878 367890 368896 371898 374895
      377890 381884 384889 387885 391874 395863 399853 401840
      403834 407832 410830 412826 415821
 1.00 358896 358894 357896 358898 358896
 1.00 357903 358901 358899 356897 356899 355901 355902 354903
      354905 354908 353909 353910 353912 353913 354912 355911
      355910 356908 357905 357903
 1.50 389858 391856 392851 391850 390853 388856 389858
 1.50 390838 390833 389830 384834 381839 378843 376850 374856
      373862 373867 375868 377866 378862 378859 381857 384852
      387847 389840 390838
 2.00 379852 380849 380848 379849 378850 379852

$$




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