Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200915
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
514 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 20/1200 UTC THRU AUG 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES

MCS/EMERGING MCV ACROSS EASTERN NE-WESTERN IA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS SUNDAY WAS NOT CAPTURED WELL BY THE ECMWF...AS THE CONSENSUS
AMONG THE OTHER MODELS IS FOR A EASTERLY TRACK OF THE MCV ACROSS
NORTHERN IL BY SUN EVENING BEFORE DAMPENING CONSIDERABLY AS IT
MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. WPC UTILIZED PREDOMINATELY
NSSL-WRF AND WRF-ARW2 HIGH-RES CAM GUIDANCE WITH THE QPF FOR THE
INITIAL MCS...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST MO SUNDAY MORNING -- PARALLEL TO THE 850-300 MB
THICKNESS AND ALONG THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

THE MODELS ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISE ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY...HOWEVER ALSO DEPICT DISTINCT LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE QPF MAXIMA...WITH THE HIGH-RES CONSENSUS
GENERALLY FARTHER SOUTH OF THE GLOBAL MODELS (AS IS
TYPICAL...THOUGH SOME WITH A BI-MODEL DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVIER
AMOUNTS). SUBTLE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING WOULD
FAVOR A NORTHERN GENESIS REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z MON (I.E. IA INTO
NORTHERN MO)...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SW-WSW LOW LEVEL
JET/INCREASING UPWIND PROPAGATION OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW
MBE/CORFIDI VECTORS VEERING MORE NORTHERLY ~10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WPC OPTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIEST QPF FROM 00-12Z MON...CLOSER TO A
BLEND OF THE WRF-ARW/PARALLEL ARW RUNS ALONG WITH THE PARALLEL
HREF MEAN. ONE CAVEAT: THE NSSL-WRF AND WRF-ARW2 ARE EVEN FARTHER
SOUTH (INTO KC METRO)...WHICH IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION POTENTIAL AND POOL OF UNTAPPED DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY...AND WILL AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE DEPEND ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS WITH THE WEAK
~700 MB CAPPING IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY
CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD TREND.


SIERRA NEVADA / AZ-NM INTO SOUTHERN CO

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS CA SUN-SUN NIGHT...WHILE THE
COMPACT WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) ON THE EASTERN FLANK WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPORT MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN AZ AND THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHEST MOISTURE ANOMALIES WILL BE WITHIN THIS
QUASI-STATIONARY WCB...WITH PWAT VALUES AVERAGING 2-2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF NM. MEANWHILE...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MESO/CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED VORT MAX ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AZ-NM BORDER EARLY SUNDAY LIFTING SLOWLY N DURING THE
DAY...THEN MORE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM
INTO SOUTHEAST CO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMICAL SETUP...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MULTI-MODEL SIGNAL
FOR OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS FAR WESTERN TX
AND SOUTHERN NM INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
(INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES MEANS) SHOW A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...SOMEWHAT
ATYPICAL SWATH OF 0.25-0.50" OF AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS...WITH SOME OF THE CAMS INDICATING FAIRLY PRODIGIOUS
SMALLER-SCALE TOTALS (2-4"). AS A RESULT...WPC WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT A MORE ENHANCED (I.E. "SLIGHT") RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF NM INTO SOUTHERN CO WITH THE NEW DAY 1 ERO.

ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA...MODEST DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG) ALONG WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES ~2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW/PERIODIC
DPVA...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN
SLOPES. PER THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...LOCAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2+
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED.


SOUTHEAST

A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WITH POCKETS OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
THE CAROLINAS COAST INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND BACK UPSTREAM INTO TO
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA OF LA UP INTO AR. ALSO, DIURNAL
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS FL...BASICALLY AROUND
THE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE. OVERALL WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH HI-RES SUITE FOR QPF AMOUNTS.




DAYS 2 AND 3...


...MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY TO
POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, BOTH WITH A WEAKENING WARM
FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALIGNED FROM PARTS
OF IA INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI WHERE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL AND INTERACT WITH AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
SETTING UP OVER THE REGION.  WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. COULD ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  00Z MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING VARYING
SOLUTIONS WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION BUT THERE REMAINED A STRONG
ENOUGH SIGNAL TO KEEP THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(VALID 12Z MON - 12Z TUE) OVER PORTIONS OF IA AND EXPANDED A BIT
INTO ADJACENT STATES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 3 AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
EASES IN FROM THE NORTH.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS TO THE
SOUTH OF THERE.  LIKE ON DAY 2...MODELS VARIED WITH THE DETAILS OF
THE FORECAST, BUT THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT RAINFALL TOTALS
COULD EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES BUT THERE WAS ENOUGH
SIGNAL OVER PARTS OF OK TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS POINT.


...SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION...

THE CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE HIGHEST TOTALS AND GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND INTO NEW
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY GIVEN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL CHANNEL ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS
THE REGION.  12Z MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY TRENDED HEAVIER WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SO THE WPC QPF WAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE DAY 2/3 MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS MATCHED WELL
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS.


...SIERRA...

THE COMBINATION OF A CLOSED LOW LINGERING OVER CALIFORNIA AND AN
INCREASING INFILTRATION OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS.  SOME OF THESE MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.  00Z
GUIDANCE ALIGNED WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TERMS OF
PLACEMENT BUT HAD BACKED OFF PCPN AMOUNTS A BIT.  ONLY MINIMAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ON GOING WPC DAY 2/3 QPF OR AREAS
DEPICTED IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

HURLEY/BANN


24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 538210 538204 536201 533198 527195 522199 517209 512215
      510219 509227 507241 507247 506255 504260 501262 495268
      490274 490281 492284 495288 499291 503291 506290 510287
      512284 516273 518259 519250 521245 523238 525233 529224
      534217 538210
 0.01 521773 520762 518750 516739 514730 510723 505717 502709
      498701 494697 487695 485694 482697 480700 479706 479714
      483718 486726 489737 492744 499745 505748 508749 510752
      514759 517769 521773
 0.01 521905 522896 521886 520881 516878 512876 506876 498883
      492891 487899 485905 485912 487917 489919 492919 500915
      510917 515916 519913 521905
 0.01 490680 488665 487658 485656 479650 474650 471655 465661
      460669 459673 459679 463688 465690 471690 475688 479691
      482691 487689 489686 490680
 0.01 503842 502833 501827 500821 498816 496812 493809 490811
      488813 487811 488805 487795 486791 485788 481786 476787
      474791 471796 467801 456815 446829 442839 437847 424867
      418876 412882 409885 406887 401894 398900 395905 391909
      389914 386916 381915 379913 379910 380904 379889 378885
      376882 371882 368884 368890 370894 370902 367907 366912
      364908 361903 357902 351903 349910 352914 355917 360917
      364914 365927 366933 365939 366946 367952 370963 375973
      379976 384977 388974 392975 396977 397973 397969 399970
      401973 407977 406984 404986 401985 396982 391983 388986
      385991 385998 387005 391014 398019 408020 415017 420014
      423009 429000 433011 436023 436031 438036 440040 443043
      453045 462045 467044 470044 472046 482050 484047 486045
      486041 484035 481031 477027 473026 469023 467019 462011
      459003 457996 457985 457968 457954 456946 456937 456929
      457921 462913 466907 468903 468900 472887 475874 478870
      481867 490861 498853 503842
 0.01 433783 433778 432773 432768 431764 430762 429764 429767
      429771 428776 428779 429783 429788 430790 431788 432785
      433783
 0.01 405215 405211 402209 396203 386194 387191 384190 381191
      378187 374184 365181 351185 347189 346194 348198 350196
      349193 350188 355187 361187 366189 369192 374195 380201
      384205 393208 399213 402215 405215
 0.01 411105 411100 409096 406095 403099 399098 396095 394093
      391094 388104 379108 377111 373113 370116 363116 360117
      357113 351109 349106 350102 355097 360094 365094 368089
      371087 375089 379090 381085 382078 382067 383064 386062
      391068 392068 395066 401065 406068 410066 412064 414060
      415053 412050 409049 406053 402055 398053 399051 393046
      387043 382041 378037 373030 366025 356023 329037 325038
      318038 313037 309035 306034 302036 299038 293039 286042
      280047 278051 275051 268053 263056 260055 255055 253059
      261074 262082 269087 271089 275090 278092 282093 285097
      286105 287110 289113 293120 298120 301121 304123 312122
      309117 318117 322117 324114 326112 328113 334115 338118
      339122 341126 343130 346134 345136 343138 337137 334138
      332143 336144 338146 341150 339153 334155 335157 340157
      343161 349162 352160 356163 361168 369155 368145 368140
      371138 376137 380133 385126 392121 394117 398113 400111
      405110 411105
 0.01 411842 411835 410831 405831 401834 398836 395839 393842
      395844 398842 401841 403843 406846 409845 411842
 0.01 392195 390194 390195 392195 392195
 0.01 392792 389786 383783 376784 372790 371797 373801 373806
      369810 364814 354824 352828 351833 351837 352842 354842
      357837 359830 363823 367818 371813 382806 387802 390796
      392792
 0.01 364726 362722 359719 356718 353720 350719 347721 344727
      340730 336733 326735 322737 319741 313749 300759 294764
      292766 288767 281768 278771 274779 269786 262791 247796
      242796 239798 235803 231812 228821 227827 226831 226839
      232845 234847 238848 241847 244845 245841 245836 247832
      250834 251841 258846 263854 268856 271859 273861 273864
      270872 268879 265902 264912 263925 264931 265935 268939
      271941 274942 278942 283939 292951 286958 284963 285966
      286966 300959 306955 313953 318952 322950 329943 332939
      333934 332930 329926 321923 319919 319912 317905 313898
      313890 314884 312881 309884 303882 305878 305865 304859
      304853 307849 310847 314841 314836 316833 320832 324829
      329823 334815 339806 345789 346785 345781 343775 349756
      354747 359740 362733 364726
 0.01 312922 313920 313918 312916 310918 310920 312922 312922
 0.01 305884 302883 300884 295887 288893 285904 285910 286916
      292925 294922 294918 293916 289906 289899 293895 295897
      298901 301904 303903 303899 303886 305884
 0.25 482849 480842 479837 477835 472833 468838 464838 457841
      449850 446857 444865 444875 447884 448887 451889 455888
      458890 461896 463896 466893 468887 469881 469875 467867
      468858 470851 477852 480852 482849
 0.25 443899 443892 441888 435888 430886 425887 422888 414896
      408901 404905 401909 396916 388922 384924 382927 383932
      386936 391945 394949 398952 401961 404964 407965 410963
      417965 428963 431959 432954 433947 434940 438915 440906
      443899
 0.25 417001 418996 418992 416989 414988 412991 410994 409996
      408999 406003 407007 409009 413009 415007 416003 417001
 0.25 387201 386199 385200 385201 387201 387201
 0.25 383198 382196 382195 381194 379194 377194 376193 376194
      377194 379196 379197 380198 382198 383198
 0.25 396993 395991 394990 392989 391990 390990 389993 390995
      390996 392997 394996 396995 396994 396993
 0.25 373191 373189 371188 371189 371190 372191 373191
 0.25 369187 368186 366186 366187 367188 369187
 0.25 378071 378069 376067 375065 373064 371063 370063 368063
      369066 371067 372068 373069 374071 374072 375073 376074
      377073 378073 378071
 0.25 377949 376947 375946 374945 373945 373947 373949 373950
      375951 377949
 0.25 373916 373914 371912 370914 369915 369916 369917 371918
      373916
 0.25 363076 365066 361062 361059 363056 364052 361049 355049
      353045 356040 359036 358034 352033 347037 342041 335045
      332046 328045 321044 307050 299050 293050 287054 279056
      267059 265063 266067 271071 281078 291089 299098 307097
      316097 322096 325091 330095 336101 350080 354079 358077
      360078 363076
 0.25 355737 355733 354731 349733 344738 339740 336744 331752
      326758 324760 323756 318756 314759 307764 301766 298768
      293771 284777 278784 273791 268794 259798 250804 248806
      243807 239809 237811 235822 234827 232830 230834 233838
      235838 238836 244818 246815 249815 258815 264822 272825
      275822 275817 279815 284816 289818 295816 304812 306808
      309806 316803 319800 321795 325786 334784 337776 345759
      349747 353741 355737
 0.25 332804 332802 331800 330800 329802 328803 327804 326805
      326806 325808 324810 324811 326812 328811 329809 331807
      331806 332804
 0.25 323814 324812 322811 321811 320812 319813 318815 317815
      316817 315817 314818 312820 311822 312824 314823 316822
      317821 318821 319819 320819 321817 322817 323815 323814
 0.25 324934 323933 323932 321931 319931 318932 318935 319936
      321936 323935 324934
 0.25 304947 305945 305943 303941 302941 301941 299940 297940
      296941 296943 296945 297947 298947 299948 301948 303948
      304947
 0.25 297832 293828 291824 286822 283822 281825 277833 271833
      267833 266831 266827 265825 260825 258830 257836 258839
      261839 265841 267845 272848 277848 283850 285850 289848
      290845 290841 290836 294834 297832
 0.25 287929 287925 286922 284920 282918 279917 277916 273917
      272917 270919 269923 270925 272928 274929 277930 281930
      285930 287929
 0.50 466888 467882 466876 463868 463856 462851 460848 453851
      449858 448867 449872 450877 452879 456881 460886 462889
      465891 466888
 0.50 424905 424900 423899 419899 416900 406906 400917 397920
      391923 387927 387931 387934 390940 395945 398947 402953
      403955 406956 412953 422947 424941 423931 420917 422912
      424905
 0.50 415001 416998 416996 415994 415993 414994 413994 412996
      411996 410998 410000 410001 409003 410004 411005 413005
      414003 415001 415001
 0.50 362067 361065 360065 360067 362067
 0.50 347745 346742 344745 342744 339744 338747 337749 336754
      336756 337760 341759 342757 343752 344750 345747 347745
 0.50 348055 344052 339050 333050 327048 322046 320047 321052
      316055 311056 306056 294054 287058 277062 272063 270064
      271067 279074 285079 291081 297083 305087 308087 309085
      308079 310074 313073 320072 323074 324076 327080 333081
      334077 329072 327069 329066 333063 339062 345059 348055
 0.50 329772 329770 327769 326770 325771 325773 326773 328773
      329772
 0.50 321769 320767 320765 319764 319763 317761 315761 315762
      314763 313764 312766 310767 311769 313771 315771 317772
      319773 320772 320771 321769
 0.50 314796 310791 309787 306784 303783 302780 302775 300773
      296774 293776 286780 282785 279792 274796 264798 259801
      256804 255808 257810 261809 267806 274807 280810 287812
      295812 301809 307803 311801 314796
 0.50 278840 277838 275838 274838 274840 275841 277841 278840
 0.50 273820 273818 272817 270818 268818 266818 264818 263819
      265820 266821 268822 269822 270823 272822 273820
 0.50 263835 262833 262835 262836 263835
 1.00 459866 459864 457862 457861 455861 454862 453862 452865
      452866 452867 452868 454869 455869 457867 459867 459866
 1.00 414935 413928 413919 414913 412911 408912 405917 404924
      400929 399936 400943 403949 407949 410944 414938 414935
 1.00 399926 398926 396926 394927 396928 398927 399926
 1.00 335058 335056 334054 332054 330054 329054 327055 326055
      325057 327058 328058 330058 332058 334058 335058
 1.00 298796 298794 297792 295791 293792 291793 291795 290797
      290799 292801 294801 296800 297798 297797 298796
 1.00 284802 284800 283799 281799 279800 279801 278803 280804
      281804 283803 284802
 1.50 411919 409917 407920 406926 404931 402933 401940 403945
      407945 408940 409936 409929 409925 410922 411919
 2.00 405942 405940 404938 403938 403940 403942 404943 405943
      405942

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 493723 493714 491704 490695 488693 484691 480690 471691
      466695 462703 459710 454718 450728 447736 444746 443757
      440768 437773 434778 431783 427786 421796 411814 404820
      397824 389831 385836 380841 376848 372857 371869 372880
      374887 376892 377896 376899 373902 366911 367920 364929
      364936 368941 370944 369947 370954 371965 368977 365984
      365996 368003 362010 359013 354014 347017 339021 332024
      323028 317028 312030 307031 303034 300039 295041 293046
      289049 283051 278049 274048 270049 264054 256056 252055
      248058 244057 241054 237053 234056 233059 236063 240067
      243070 248072 252074 259082 265087 277090 286092 294096
      297099 301105 305112 309115 314116 318116 320114 321108
      323107 324110 326111 328109 330104 333102 337104 339108
      342118 342124 343129 345134 345138 343139 339141 338146
      341151 344154 353160 358163 361166 359172 360178 360186
      366194 381204 387210 394213 401218 405220 408219 409214
      406211 401204 393199 388196 386192 381184 371177 370174
      371172 373169 376170 380172 384176 386180 389182 393182
      394177 393173 388167 388160 391155 393153 394149 391141
      388139 383137 378135 380131 387127 391124 392121 397118
      402121 405119 409115 412111 414104 414096 411091 407091
      404093 400102 399104 395105 390107 383112 378111 372110
      370106 366105 363105 362110 360115 357113 354110 352106
      352101 354097 362092 364088 367091 374094 375099 377099
      381097 385093 389089 392085 397078 405074 409071 413067
      416064 417061 420061 423059 425058 428060 431062 434066
      438072 441076 443077 447080 450078 451073 451070 451065
      452063 457060 460055 460047 457035 452027 446019 443009
      441004 441997 442988 443981 444972 445964 447959 451951
      453939 457932 461923 465904 467894 468882 469866 470853
      471845 471839 474826 480817 482804 481790 479784 477782
 0.01 477782 477778 478775 480772 481770 483767 484764 485761
      487758 488755 490752 491749 492747 492744 493738 493736
      493731 492726 493723
 0.01 502960 503947 501943 498944 494949 489957 481969 477974
      472979 461989 458991 457995 454003 454008 456010 465011
      478007 483003 488997 492991 495983 501967 502960
 0.01 453098 450092 445091 442091 440092 433092 431090 428089
      426089 426094 429097 434100 436098 439098 441097 444099
      448102 452100 453098
 0.01 407773 407766 406763 402762 399764 395756 398747 398742
      397739 394738 391740 386745 381752 378761 374762 370765
      368764 366767 365769 367772 367775 379785 378789 379794
      379800 380805 382807 387803 394787 405776 407773
 0.01 379151 378148 377144 376141 374139 372141 370142 369147
      369149 369154 370156 372159 373162 375159 376157 377153
      379151
 0.01 368210 368209 366208 365207 365206 363205 361205 359205
      359206 360208 361209 362210 364211 366212 368211 368210
 0.01 376801 374797 370799 365807 359814 356819 352823 349826
      346831 346836 347844 349846 352844 356840 359834 362825
      368815 373806 376801
 0.01 355784 354775 353768 349760 349749 348746 345745 339746
      335748 329754 328757 322760 314766 307773 303782 297796
      292805 291808 289809 285808 277812 270814 266809 267804
      274799 280793 284787 288779 288771 285767 277763 272767
      257778 251784 247790 238806 236810 235816 235820 237822
      245829 247833 247839 242855 241861 243865 244872 246876
      252882 260885 265888 265894 262903 262909 260913 262921
      266923 270923 275923 279922 281924 278928 274932 270934
      267938 265943 262952 257959 257966 261968 266967 270969
      273973 279979 283979 288978 296973 301966 310952 313941
      316937 319935 326930 331928 334929 335932 336934 339934
      341932 345923 344917 343914 342910 339906 331887 327878
      326874 326868 328863 326857 328852 331848 333841 337833
      340825 343816 346811 348806 351795 355784
 0.01 272824 270823 268823 268822 266821 265822 263821 262823
      263825 265826 267826 269826 271826 272824
 0.25 478719 478711 476705 473705 471707 467712 464720 461737
      455757 454769 453779 452787 449793 446797 442798 434802
      432805 431809 434816 439825 436832 431837 426841 419846
      413853 410859 406866 404876 400884 394897 390904 387912
      386924 384931 380940 377949 376956 377965 376976 373988
      374998 373010 371015 372019 374023 377025 381024 383022
      386017 396004 401998 405996 407996 410005 413013 416013
      418012 423006 429987 436971 442954 445937 447928 450918
      454909 457901 459889 460879 462859 464836 464824 464812
      464800 463797 464792 467786 470778 473770 475759 476750
      477740 477728 478719
 0.25 387772 387769 387767 387766 385766 384768 383768 382770
      382773 384774 385774 386775 386774 387772 387772
 0.25 393050 392049 390049 388049 387049 386050 386052 388052
      390052 391052 392051 393050
 0.25 375189 375188 373188 372188 373189 374189 375189
 0.25 378073 379071 379069 378068 377069 377071 378073 378074
      378073
 0.25 366160 366159 366157 365155 365154 363153 361153 359153
      358154 359155 359156 361157 362158 363159 364160 366160
      366160
 0.25 367054 364049 358051 352052 347056 334050 320046 317048
      314049 312050 316052 322063 328065 334066 339063 346063
      352061 356067 359069 363068 364066 363063 361060 366056
      367054
 0.25 362038 364034 363029 361029 359030 357032 355033 353035
      351037 349040 348044 350046 353046 354046 357045 359043
      361040 362038
 0.25 334772 333768 332767 327770 323780 318787 312795 309799
      307803 307810 310814 319813 323812 328808 330796 331785
      333774 334772
 0.25 316873 315866 313856 311849 310841 311835 309831 305826
      302824 298824 296831 291835 289838 289841 295845 297851
      302852 304867 303884 304889 306891 310886 313881 316873
      316873
 0.25 296075 297069 296065 292062 288062 279061 276060 270059
      262062 255065 256068 260071 266076 272081 277083 283083
      289079 296075
 0.25 298954 298949 296948 294949 292952 290954 288956 287958
      285961 284964 286966 288967 292968 294966 295962 296960
      297956 298954
 0.25 290851 281848 272843 266837 262836 260837 257841 256846
      253850 251854 251859 255862 260862 265861 269862 279866
      284864 286860 288855 287850 289853 290851
 0.25 262796 260795 259795 257796 256797 255798 253799 253800
      253802 254804 256804 258804 259803 261801 262799 262797
      262796
 0.50 471748 471743 471738 469734 467734 465740 463745 462753
      462761 462770 463774 465776 467769 468761 470756 471748
 0.50 459812 458805 454807 447814 443815 442820 445825 444831
      439842 431849 424856 417865 414872 412877 406885 395906
      391918 388929 383940 380946 379954 379959 380967 380972
      379977 378987 380994 380002 379008 383008 386007 393001
      399990 400983 401975 402967 404961 406957 409953 413952
      416954 417957 419964 419971 420980 422982 426979 428974
      434962 438949 440942 441936 443922 445916 448911 451905
      452898 454882 455868 457855 457844 457835 458822 459812
 0.50 361056 363054 361053 359053 358053 356053 356054 355055
      356056 357057 359057 361056 361056
 0.50 335058 335056 334055 332054 330053 329053 327053 325055
      325057 327058 328059 330059 332059 334059 335058
 0.50 323793 322792 321793 320793 319794 318795 317797 317798
      318800 319799 321798 322797 323795 323794 323793
 0.50 286072 286068 282065 277064 273063 270062 266065 265069
      269071 272073 277075 280076 284074 286072
 1.00 447867 446856 444853 438858 434864 431881 422891 415894
      410897 399906 396913 393920 388936 382948 381954 382959
      384968 383979 383984 385986 389983 394977 396969 398962
      400953 402945 406938 411934 415939 421943 426944 429943
      433939 435930 436919 437909 437899 438890 441882 446876
      447867
 1.50 433916 432907 430897 428893 426893 422900 419907 415913
      415918 415923 418931 423936 427936 429933 432926 433916
 1.50 409915 407909 401910 394922 391933 386945 384954 386962
      386969 385977 386981 390977 393972 395965 398949 399943
      401936 405923 409915
 2.00 429926 430921 430916 429913 428909 426907 423909 422912
      421916 420919 420924 421928 422931 424931 426930 428928
      429926
 2.00 400924 400919 398920 394929 392936 389943 387952 389961
      389965 393965 395958 395947 397938 399929 400924

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 537824 536808 533796 529783 525771 523765 524757 525743
      522712 516690 511676 507667 503658 501653 499645 497641
      494639 490633 486630 482631 475637 456650 442664 429677
      406703 401709 396717 394726 395732 397736 394738 388744
      384747 382751 380755 383759 385763 391762 394762 396763
      394768 391774 388777 380795 370809 365817 362814 359814
      351820 346827 339826 331828 328826 329822 330816 332811
      335807 339804 346797 354791 357780 360770 359758 358753
      355749 353745 350744 346743 343747 338756 335765 331773
      324786 320793 317803 311811 307820 297838 294847 294860
      298882 297892 294900 289918 286930 283939 279949 277959
      277966 279970 285971 290969 303959 307956 310952 315943
      318935 318924 320905 321897 322892 324881 329885 336893
      343897 341909 339921 338929 337934 336945 333957 330970
      327980 323987 315991 304000 298007 296012 300015 306018
      308022 304025 297029 293038 285047 282050 276050 257052
      251052 249056 247067 259080 264083 272087 281092 285094
      289093 294093 298095 305100 311107 315110 320110 337103
      341105 345101 345098 344095 344091 343086 347082 350080
      356081 363085 367084 371086 373090 373096 373098 376101
      379101 383097 387091 389087 388082 390077 393073 408065
      411060 411054 403048 388036 380031 371030 370026 372021
      375011 378992 388972 396954 404938
 0.01 404938 411921 414915 419908 439887 449874 453868 459862
      463855 465852 468851 472858 474865 486876 490881 491884
      489886 488889 480906 478909 479912 482922 487939 492946
      495948 497952 500952 504955 506954 509950 513943 516936
      520927 521923 521915 522904 523892 523880 525870 530862
      534856 536849 537840 536829 537824
 0.01 438211 437208 434205 431197 429190 426184 421178 416174
      412167 410162 406166 405171 406175 409182 412187 416194
      414198 412201 406198 404199 401197 395196 388193 379183
      368181 363178 359181 364188 370192 380201 385206 394207
      396206 400208 403214 405216 406220 411226 406229 404233
      411234 414233 416229 418226 421225 425222 430219 433216
      438211
 0.01 416156 414148 413144 410142 407144 406148 404153 403149
      398143 391139 389136 389131 390125 391122 399121 402123
      405122 409116 411108 410098 409094 406093 397103 395106
      392109 387109 384110 379113 374118 366119 363116 359116
      355115 352116 352120 354122 360127 368130 372136 375143
      370150 363152 360154 361158 367162 373166 379163 384168
      387173 392179 398176 402169 403160 416156
 0.01 362845 360839 360834 358834 354839 350843 345845 342850
      341854 341858 343860 346860 349857 356856 360851 362845
 0.01 294805 294799 291797 286796 284792 282788 279785 273781
      265777 258777 254779 252783 248790 239804 236812 234822
      236834 240840 246841 252839 255837 260836 271824 279819
      286814 287810 291808 294805
 0.25 517774 516766 513760 510755 506753 504751 503747 502738
      501720 500706 500689 500677 499661 498654 495647 492643
      488640 483640 479644 473653 461668 457678 455683 455690
      451701 448707 444712 437719 428726 424729 421732 416742
      412752 410763 406773 399782 392790 386799 382809 377819
      377824 380828 382832 384838 385844 384850 381855 378860
      365862 358869 354877 351888 347912 341938 338949 336964
      334976 331987 331993 332999 334003 338006 344006 349004
      354006 359007 364997 366992 367988 365987 358989 358981
      360976 363965 367956 370954 374956 377963 382964 386953
      390941 393931 394925 397922 402913 406901 411892 418884
      426876 433869 439860 445851 450844 456837 472823 478814
      479811 482810 487812 490813 494810 497806 500801 503791
      505787 507785 509789 510791 513792 515786 517774
 0.25 398055 396051 394048 389044 380042 371042 362041 358043
      357047 361054 368055 377055 381058 384061 389061 396057
      398055
 0.25 382069 382067 378065 375065 371066 369066 371066 373069
      374071 375075 377078 378078 380076 381072 382069
 0.25 346785 346783 345781 343782 342783 342784 341786 340787
      339788 338789 337790 336791 335792 334793 335795 335796
      337795 338795 339794 341792 342790 344788 344787 345785
      346785
 0.25 304078 304076 303075 302076 300076 298078 298079 298080
      299080 301081 303080 303079 304078
 0.25 299943 300939 298937 297937 296940 294943 294945 292949
      291952 290954 292955 294953 296952 297949 298945 299943
 0.25 287083 285079 283076 280072 276071 274071 269069 265070
      267074 270075 276077 279080 281082 286084 287083
 0.25 278801 277794 275791 267789 261790 258791 251796 245803
      242809 241816 242820 246823 250823 256823 260821 264814
      267810 271808 275806 277803 278801
 0.50 497673 497665 496657 491648 488646 484647 477653 473660
      468669 465677 463686 460696 456705 449721 444729 438735
      425745 423749 421754 422758 423760 427762 435762 438763
      441767 441774 442781 441794 441805 441817 443822 445827
      449829 454829 463816 474803 483789 486786 488780 489774
      491770 493766 494761 495751 497724 496714 496701 497673
 0.50 429850 430846 429843 425841 421845 419849 417853 416858
      415863 415870 418874 421871 424867 425862 427857 428852
      429850
 0.50 406873 405866 403862 397858 394859 391863 386870 384874
      384878 390884 392889 392895 392904 395905 397903 398899
      401889 404880 406873
 0.50 402822 400819 402811 403804 401800 399799 395800 392801
      390803 388808 387815 388824 392826 398829 399830 401828
      402822
 0.50 393052 392050 390048 389047 388047 387046 385046 383046
      382047 381048 379049 381050 382051 383052 384053 386054
      388054 390054 392054 393052
 0.50 386934 385918 383913 379909 375905 371905 367907 366900
      367892 365883 362880 358883 355888 353894 353902 353908
      349921 346932 342945 339957 338973 337984 339991 342992
      344991 349988 351984 356972 360961 366950 373943 382943
      386934
 0.50 275801 274796 271794 268793 264794 257796 252800 247805
      245813 246816 250818 253816 257816 260816 262813 265806
      270803 275801
 1.00 492669 490660 487655 484657 480661 475672 470683 461706
      459711 458719 457726 458734 461750 461757 461765 461775
      464784 466791 467793 469792 472786 473779 475765 476757
      476750 482741 489730 490725 491718 492685 492669
 1.00 360949 360944 359938 355932 352930 350933 347941 345949
      343956 342967 344975 349974 351971 354965 357957 360949
 1.50 486699 486691 484684 481682 478684 472691 470701 468707
      470714 471719 471723 470736 471740 473740 476736 480727
      483718 485707 486699
 1.50 356952 356945 355941 352937 349941 348945 346950 345956
      344960 345966 350965 352962 354958 355953 356952
 2.00 352956 353954 353952 353949 353947 353945 352943 352942
      351943 350943 350945 349947 348949 347952 347954 346956
      346958 346960 348961 349960 350960 351958 352957 352956

$$





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