Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200722
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
321 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 20/1200 UTC THRU JUN 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CNTL/ERN GULF COAST...
HEAVY TO LIKELY EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #3 AS SYSTEM MOVES GRADUALLY
NWWD FROM THE CNTL GULF THROUGH WED MORNING.  SYSTEM IS QUITE
ASYMMETRICAL GIVEN THE SLY SHEAR TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW TO
ITS WEST..WITH INCREASING CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  MODELS GENL AGREE ON BRINGING DEEP
SURGE OF TROPICAL MSTR NWD INTO THE CNTL GULF COAST AREA
ESPECIALLY FROM SE LA EWD INTO SRN MS/SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
REGION THIS PD WITH PWS INCREASING TO OVER 2.5".  THE DEEPER MEAN
LAYERED ESELY FLOW`S NWD PROGRESSION WILL LIMITED BY WEAK E/W
RIDGING AT 5H EXTENDING ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL
LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN THE MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL RAIN BANDS ACRS SE
LA INTO SRN MS/SW AL GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL THERE FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE DAY 1 PD OF 4 TO 6+". MANUAL
QPF WAS BASED ON BEST MODEL FIT TO LATEST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL INFLOW INTO THE CNTL
GULF COAST.


...SE U.S NEWD INTO ERN NC...
DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MSTR CIRCULATING NWD/NEWD BETWEEN POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE #3 OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEX AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WRN ATLC INTERACTING WITH STALLING AND WEAKENING FRONT FROM
THE CAROLINAS SWWD INTO MS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME INTENSE AND
VERY SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINS THIS PD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BNDRY.
  MODEL SOUNDING SHOW IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYERED MSTR PERSISTING AND
WHILE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING SOME...MODELS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME TALL SKINNY CAPES DURING THE AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE
AREA.  THIS ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT RT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
AND GENERAL DEEP LAYERED UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...POTNL WILL EXIST
FOR SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION.    FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS OF HI
RES GUIDANCE AND GENLY STAYED TOWARD THE HIER END OF MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE AREAL AVG WISE GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS.

ELSEWHERE...
ADDITIONAL VORT ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE
GT LAKES REGION WILL LEAK TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE CNTL/ERN GT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND.    SOME LOCAL .50 INCH OR GREATER RAIN TOTALS WILL BE
PSBL IN SOME OF THE STGR RAIN SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN GT LAKES REGION/NEW ENGLAND..THOUGH IN GENERAL MOST AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 482616 490623 495634 504659 509671 512683 519703 520707
      522710 522717 524733 524740 524748 526763 527790 524799
      520808 518814 515821 512831 511838 509845 508852 505857
      500864 496866 493864 485859 480854 475853 470853 467856
      467858 466862 466866 464871 464878 465892 469916 469920
      466926 462932 456933 451931 445931 441929 438928 437926
      434921 429912 427907 423905 416908 399918 396916 396920
      402929 405931 408934 412937 414942 414949 407945 401940
      396933 391922 389918 388914 389910 393885 395874 395867
      397863 398852 398844 400839 405817 408806 410796 412775
      414766 415762 417757 419752 422747 425742 426738 430725
      432720 432716 429714 425714 421714 413718 402721 393727
      375754 371762 367771 365781 363794 361807 358817 351839
      347849 344860 339876 327916 324924 319931 315938 310944
      297958 293961 291963 290967 290973 288980 287984 286989
      284995 282995 279993 276993 270993 263990 260988 257984
      255982 257979 257974 259972 256971 251970 247968 239964
      237961 235957 233954 233948 235943 239942 244940 245934
      247929 247923 245910 240902 236892 232885 228878 226868
      225855 228848 230846 234843 239843 241841 244839 245833
      245827 243823 240817 240813 245806 248802 253799 261794
      266792 272791 277791 276796 286797 290798 295798 299793
      300789 301784 299779 309768 318754 323747 328741 332734
      336725 347706 348701 352697 360690 368685 371684 374684
      384680 387682 390680 397672 402666 407660 411659 414656
      431644 445633 457625
 0.01 556111 555092 552072 548059 544046 538035 529027 518007
      515001 510996 502987 491982 479981 474982 471983 468984
      462984 460985 456985 449984 443985 440988 438995 443027
      440033 439041 441043 444044 448042 453040 456040 460042
      456047 454053 452060 448064 444062 440057 438050 434047
      432048 430051 428054 428058 426065 427072 437076 442080
      447085 449085 450089 448098 444101 439098 431092 425087
      426089 429095 430102 434114 437120 444122 447126 449127
      451124 453119 456110 456103 456096 453083 453080 455080
      457083 457091 461109 464114 468115 469113 469108 471098
      471088 471082 473076 477074 479072 482072 485073 488076
      495071 499062 500054 503053 507054 511059 515072 516080
      518087 520094 520098 517100 513104 511109 510118 511125
      515140 519146 520148 520154 512167 511151 509134 505102
      505099 504096 501092 495091 492091 491093 490103 492109
      499122 500126 498131 496134 494135 490139 486141 485146
      490150 493155 495160 496168 497175 500188 502189 504187
      507180 514185 520186 524185 528181 531176 533167 535162
      543153 549140 552127 552120 554116 556111
 0.01 500232 501225 501220 499215 499211 496207 492205 488204
      485204 477206 471210 465214 458216 455219 458222 460225
      463226 471228 474230 476232 475235 472238 467237 460235
      460240 464243 471246 485256 491253 495246 500232
 0.01 491053 490051 488051 487050 485050 483050 481052 483054
      485055 486055 488055 490055 491053
 0.01 422159 423150 423141 422138 423133 423126 419126 418127
      415134 411138 407142 405149 406154 409157 413158 415160
      418163 422159
 0.01 401228 401227 400226 398226 396225 394225 394226 392227
      392228 394229 395230 397230 398229 399228 401228 401228
 0.01 407107 407105 408103 408100 408098 406100 406102 404104
      404107 405109 407110 407109 407107
 0.01 403000 403995 402991 400988 397987 394985 394981 389977
      382976 376977 371981 367985 364994 363002 362007 367012
      359024 355029 351033 345043 342048 336051 329053 326057
      328062 324065 322069 324070 329067 333064 341063 346061
      348057 351055 355052 361050 369049 373045 377031 381022
      385018 390015 395012 401006 403000
 0.01 347116 348112 347109 345104 339093 339084 340080 338078
      332077 327078 325079 323083 321087 313088 308087 303091
      302096 304102 308105 316106 319106 321104 329105 332106
      335108 337113 338115 342116 347116
 0.01 291812 289810 285808 282806 278805 277803 277799 275795
      273797 270798 268800 265801 257802 260806 265807 271809
      277811 282812 288814 291812
 0.25 510773 509766 507763 503764 501768 499772 497768 492763
      492759 490754 489750 488743 489739 488732 485722 479707
      479688 481678 481669 480665 477663 473663 469666 463673
      459679 455686 453690 454695 466692 467698 466702 461707
      452712 450716 449720 449727 452730 457737 470738 472742
      473747 475756 474768 472780 472790 473800 477804 481804
      486799 490793 494787 498779 502779 508776 510773
 0.25 444800 443794 440789 438783 438775 441764 442755 441747
      438746 435747 431751 431764 431781 430795 430801 433807
      438815 442819 443816 443812 445806 444800
 0.25 428786 429783 427783 427784 426785 425786 424788 424789
      423791 423794 423796 423799 424798 425796 426793 426791
      427788 428787 428786
 0.25 391711 392707 390703 387702 382702 382697 381693 377691
      373692 370695 361708 354722 345739 339756 331770 325785
      322794 320806 317813 315817 312819 303822 293823 285823
      278819 271816 262812 259814 261818 267824 273828 272831
      268834 267843 264845 259846 255847 251850 244855 241864
      240872 254901 255914 254921 253925 252932 252938 254946
      257954 259958 263960 267962 272961 277957 289943 298930
      306916 312901 316891 318887 319892 320905 323905 326902
      332885 337869 356797 368760 375744 378737 382729 387719
      391711
 0.50 381716 378713 376709 374707 371707 366710 362716 357723
      350737 347744 346754 343763 338771 331786 325800 325804
      326810 327815 325818 319824 310828 293832 290832 286831
      282826 276821 270818 267818 268821 271824 278829 280831
      279834 277842 275846 272848 262849 256852 251857 247860
      246865 245870 246875 251881 257886 262893 262897 262903
      259919 257930 258939 260947 263951 266952 271953 276952
      281946 290935 301922 305914 308906 313891 315882 316873
      318861 320857 323853 326861 326869 325879 324883 325889
      327890 329887 332878 338859 343842 351806 356787 362771
      373740 379728 381716
 1.00 372733 371730 371724 369720 367723 362736 364741 364743
      362745 358745 360739 357741 356751 354758 352765 347779
      344785 339790 335796 336800 338802 335815 330831 329838
      329843 331848 333857 335856 336853 341838 344823 347807
      350791 353784 355778 365751 372733
 1.00 311888 312878 311870 310863 309856 307848 304843 299841
      292843 288846 286852 273854 265856 259857 254860 251863
      250867 252871 256874 263882 267885 270891 271895 270899
      268904 266911 265918 264923 265929 267937 271941 277939
      281936 290929 297921 303911 308900 311888
 1.50 360761 359757 357760 356763 355766 354768 353771 351774
      350778 350780 352780 354778 355775 356772 357770 358766
      359763 360761
 1.50 346805 345802 343801 341805 339810 338815 337819 336824
      335829 334835 336835 337833 339830 341825 342821 343816
      344812 346806 346805
 1.50 309888 309879 308871 306861 306856 304852 301846 299844
      294845 293853 288856 277858 264860 259862 255866 257870
      261873 268879 274888 275895 274900 270912 267923 269929
      272934 276935 281933 295920 299915 302910 306901 309888
 2.00 307890 308883 307877 305867 302863 300861 296859 291859
      282861 271862 265863 262865 263869 265872 272878 276885
      277891 276896 274904 271914 270919 271925 276931 280931
      283929 295917 301910 304902 307890
 3.00 305882 303874 300870 295866 288865 281864 275866 271867
      271871 275875 278881 280888 279895 278902 275917 275921
      279923 286922 295913 299908 302901 304895 305886 305882
 4.00 302897 303889 303882 300877 297873 294870 288869 277871
      276875 278877 280881 282887 282894 280904 279912 277916
      279920 282919 286918 293911 299903 302897
 5.00 302891 301886 300880 294874 288874 279877 283883 285888
      285893 283904 281908 282912 286914 289912 295906 297903
      300899 302891
 6.00 300891 301888 300886 300884 298882 298881 296882 296885
      297887 297889 297891 297893 297895 297896 296897 296899
      297900 297899 298897 299895 300893 300891
 6.00 290885 289883 289881 288883 288885 289886 290885

$$





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