Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250536
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 25/1200 UTC THRU JUL 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION (1-2 SIGMAS ABOVE
THE MEAN FOR LATE JULY) ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED TO
HELP FIRE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.  THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CO/NM WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION, SO FOLLOWED IN SUIT.  OVERALL THOUGH, CONTINUITY
WAS WELL-MAINTAINED IN THIS AREA.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING OUT OF NORTHEAST NM
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC.  LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
INCREASES TO 25+ KTS WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
CAPES/INSTABILITY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR BROADER SCALE HEAVY RAIN
ISSUES.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS A SIGNAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS IN
THE 3-5" RANGE.


OH & TN VALLEYS/NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH
STALLS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS IL IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE MORNING HOURS -- SOMETHING THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO SLOW (BY
AT LEAST SIX HOURS) TO MOVE.  OTHERWISE, WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ARE SLATED TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH TIME, WITH AXES EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOISTURE ANOMALIES ARE
AROUND TWO SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  COMBINE THIS
WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WHICH
SHOULD PUSH CAPES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE, SHORT BOUTS OF
CELL TRAINING ARE POSSIBLE WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2".

SINCE THERE IS NO SEMBLANCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION ANYWHERE NEAR
OF EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WENT TOWARDS THE MORE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE IN
THIS REGION.  DESPITE USING THE LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE, ENDED
UP MAINTAINING REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THE 00Z WPC QPF.


SOUTHEAST/LOWER MS VALLEY/FL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST/FL THIS PD WITH
AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES..AT OR ABOVE 2"..OVER THE
NORTH SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD EASTERN TX WHICH MAY HELP
FOCUS HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG/NEAR ITS TRACK.  OTHERWISE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MAIN
TRIGGERS/FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  ACROSS FL, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY EASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LOW.   USED A BLEND OF MOST RECENT GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
CONTINUITY IN THIS AREA.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 543155 544145 543138 542132 537127 528119 525116 522112
      506062 502063 497066 494071 492078 487091 483095 479096
      473094 469092 462091 460092 458095 459100 461106 463111
      467116 471120 473124 481134 487141 496149 498155 498160
      495166 494172 495177 493183 491189 490196 486198 482202
      480208 481212 484213 488210 493207 496210 499207 500217
      500223 503228 505234 508241 511247 514252 519252 523248
      525238 522231 521229 524228 525224 524219 522214 517205
      517202 518204 521208 526213 530210 533206 536201 537194
      539183 538180 538175 537171 538165 542159 543155
 0.01 513741 513733 511727 508717 500695 498690 494689 488689
      483687 484680 484674 483669 481664 476656 469649 463646
      455643 447642 444641 440642 436641 430643 426646 422649
      416657 412663 407670 403680 400690 398697 394701 385719
      382729 381738 379748 379758 379763 380771 385777 380787
      373793 348818 341825 338830 337836 336847 337852 338858
      339868 339875 341879 341885 341888 340891 337899 331906
      328907 327905 324899 321891 315883 316879 316872 313864
      310860 308855 305848 299838 292830 289825 286823 285816
      285814 287812 289805 281802 273800 268799 263799 252802
      248807 244810 245813 246827 245831 247836 250842 245859
      242869 243875 245883 247892 249897 252901 264917 268923
      270926 269930 268936 267940 268946 269956 272964 275972
      280979 284986 288992 290997 291004 293008 296010 302011
      306009 308004 311001 321997 330993 333991 335989 338990
      340993 342997 344001 344004 343011 341016 340022 338027
      332032 328035 328038 332048 326052 324070 316069 311069
      311072 308073 306070 292056 289054 284052 277049 266046
      256044 252042 247042 238045 236047 237050 239058 242067
      248072 253077 259084 261089 263093 266097 271102 275105
      277109 283115 289119 293121 294125 298131 302134 308134
      318139 322138 323134 320124 319120 321121 324119 327120
      331124 335130 337129 335125 331116 329113 328107 333108
      337112 341122 345132 350133 352137 356138 357133 359132
      361134 365137 368136 371132 378128 378125 374126 371126
      369125 366121 363118 358116 351111 350108 350104 355093
      358093 362094 364095 364092 364088 366084 368085 369089
      376091 380094 384092 387088 388082 392080 397078 401076
      401070 402064 400060 401057 404053 406048 411048 422048
      436041 441041 445041 452037
 0.01 452037 458032 464026 468020 473009 475004 476998 478986
      484972 486967 487961 488958 488950 487944 485938 484932
      482929 481924 477922 474922 472924 467930 462939 460947
      456956 454960 452964 446971 443978 438985 433991 428999
      424007 421014 418017 416019 414018 406014 399009 394004
      389004 387006 386018 387022 390023 396028 400030 406031
      409033 405035 398036 389036 380035 374030 375019 377009
      380000 382998 385997 387995 389984 390972 388963 388949
      388938 387934 386927 386913 386899 389881 393860 396851
      399844 403836 408826 416810 425799 435787 442780 444777
      449775 460774 465773 468775 471776 473779 476788 480797
      483804 488803 491805 497804 500801 507787 508776 511765
      512750 513741
 0.01 408105 408099 406098 403104 402106 399104 397103 396110
      389111 383113 380114 379117 384118 387116 394114 400111
      405108 408105
 0.25 528148 528143 526140 521133 515129 508125 503125 500129
      501135 502137 508143 513148 519153 523153 525151 528148
 0.25 512223 512221 513218 512215 512214 512212 511211 510212
      509212 509214 508217 509220 510221 511223 511224 512223
 0.25 492736 490729 487724 484723 478722 466721 462717 461711
      463699 463693 465687 468682 469677 467672 464667 461664
      454658 449656 446656 443658 439663 439666 440670 444674
      448676 450677 451682 451687 449695 447700 444704 439709
      437710 434706 430702 426700 421700 417701 416703 411714
      403724 400728 396730 393741 392748 392751 394752 399765
      376805 370814 363820 356827 352831 349835 348841 352843
      355842 357844 358848 357852 357861 359869 359878 359884
      356899 354912 352917 350921 346930 342940 341944 343950
      348956 352959 355963 356970 359980 364983 370982 375977
      377972 378964 378956 374929 374919 376911 378899 382884
      384870 385858 387847 388834 391822 396811 403800 404794
      405785 406778 405771 400765 403761 407757 411754 415752
      419749 424749 427750 426754 425762 426771 429775 432774
      433771 435767 436760 436755 435751 428745 429740 431735
      434728 434723 434716 437714 440723 441727 441732 442737
      446741 454740 465741 473744 477745 484744 489741 492736
 0.25 474967 474964 472961 469962 467964 466967 464969 463971
      462974 460979 460981 462983 464981 467979 469977 471975
      472972 473969 474967
 0.25 445022 445019 445017 444016 442015 441016 439016 439017
      437018 437019 435020 435021 433023 433025 433027 434028
      435029 437029 438029 439028 440027 442026 443024 444024
      445022
 0.25 383054 383051 380048 374045 368043 364041 362033 360027
      359025 354023 350023 348025 342037 341041 342045 346050
      350056 352063 355068 362072 367072 373071 376070 377065
      374060 379055 383054
 0.25 346112 344109 343107 342107 341107 341109 342110 343111
      344112 346112 346112
 0.25 341096 341093 340092 340091 339089 338086 337086 336084
      335084 334084 332086 332088 333090 333091 334093 335094
      335095 336096 338097 340098 341096
 0.25 336943 336939 333935 327929 320926 314920 309914 307909
      306903 306896 305884 305873 302863 299854 295847 291840
      285833 280828 275822 273818 271814 267813 264814 263816
      268822 270824 269826 266829 263831 262836 263849 265854
      267857 268860 266865 264868 263873 263877 265882 271888
      275893 277901 277914 276935 277946 278951 280956 285961
      289962 292962 310962 313964 316965 323960 327957 331952
      336943
 0.25 318103 319099 318097 315092 309088 304086 299084 295079
      292075 287072 282070 275069 269071 266074 266078 267081
      270086 273090 278093 285095 290098 301103 312107 316106
      318103
 0.50 459691 460689 459687 458686 456686 455688 454690 454692
      453693 453696 453698 455700 456699 457697 458696 458694
      459692 459691
 0.50 451721 451718 450716 450715 448715 446716 446717 445720
      445722 445725 445727 446729 446731 448731 449729 449728
      450726 450723 450722 451721
 0.50 429716 429711 428708 423708 419712 416717 413722 412730
      412735 415736 420732 425728 428724 429716
 0.50 399797 399795 398793 396791 395793 394794 393796 394798
      395800 397799 399798 399797
 0.50 391808 390805 388806 384811 377821 375825 371830 365840
      363846 362854 364872 360901 358917 357924 354930 352936
      351939 351943 355941 359936 363934 366929 369916 374902
      378890 379884 381876 380861 380855 379845 380836 381830
      384825 387819 391808
 0.50 373050 372050 370050 372051 373050
 0.50 373963 373961 373959 373958 371957 370957 369958 368959
      367961 366963 366965 366967 367970 368970 370971 371970
      372970 373967 373965 373964 373963
 0.50 363065 363063 363061 363058 363056 365054 363052 361052
      359053 358054 358055 357056 357057 358058 359060 359061
      359063 359065 360067 361067 362066 363065
 0.50 364954 365952 365949 365947 365945 364943 364945 363947
      363948 362949 362952 362954 362956 362958 363959 363958
      364956 364954 364954
 0.50 321941 319935 314931 308929 303928 299924 298914 298906
      299899 298891 300881 299876 297868 293855 288843 284839
      279836 276835 272836 269841 267847 267850 270851 273854
      275857 276861 273875 272880 274882 278888 280894 281901
      281910 281918 281932 282941 283947 285950 288951 293950
      308951 314950 318948 321941
 0.50 311098 312096 311094 310092 309091 308091 307091 306092
      304093 302094 301095 302095 303096 305097 307098 309099
      311099 311098
 0.50 299093 298092 296092 298093 299093
 0.50 294090 292088 291085 290082 288079 287078 283076 280076
      276076 274078 274080 275082 278084 281085 282087 286089
      288089 291090 294090
 1.00 293895 292893 292891 291889 291887 290885 289883 287881
      285883 283885 283887 283889 284891 285893 286895 287896
      289897 291896 293896 293895
$$





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