Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 120603
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
103 AM EST TUE DEC 12 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 12/1200 UTC THRU DEC 13/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW FCST TO MOVE NEWD ACRS WRN NY
STATE TUES MORNING..WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DVLPS ALONG THE TRIPLE
POINT ALONG INTERSECTION WITH COASTAL WARM FRONT.  JUST MINOR
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE INTENSITY OF PLACEMENT OF BOTH THE
PARENT CIRCULATION AND SUBSEQUENT TRIPLE POINT LOW...THE LATTER
WHICH WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN AND/OR RAIN ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE NE.
OTHERWISE WITH THE RAPID DEEPENING/PHASING OF THE ASSOCD UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN GT LAKES LATE TUES/TUES NIGHT ALONG WITH A GENL
INCREASE IN THE NEG TILT ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROF..WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STG ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AS 85H WINDS ARE
FCST TO INCREASE TO OVER 50KTS OUT OF THE SE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
SPREAD IN MODEL QPFS ARE RATHER SMALL AS WELL OWING TO ONLY MINOR
MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES.  THE 00Z GFS DID TREND A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST ACRS ERN MAINE WITH ITS HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS OF .50 TO 1"+ AND
THIS TREND WAS GIVEN A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN SUPPORT BY THE 00Z
UKMET AND 00Z NAM. SOME OF THE HIER RES GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED TO CAPTURE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE TERRAIN OVER
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.   OTHERWISE...VERY STG COLD ADVECTION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT STG LAKE EFFECT BANDS
THAT WILL EXTEND SEWD INTO PARTS OF THE CNTL/SRN APLCNS. THE
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WILL TEND TO TAPER OFF OVER THE WRN LAKES TUES
NIGHT AS WEAK COL REGION MOVES OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
00Z HI RES GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED WITH CONTINUITY FOR THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS.  PLEASE SEE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON WINTER
WEATHER WITH INITIAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NE AS WELL AS CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 492612 509642 513654 515664 517670 518677 520682 520687
      521698 522708 522715 522724 521731 519735 517740 514744
      510752 505756 497763 493764 489767 483774 476779 473786
      470793 472799 472806 473818 462832 459835 457837 455838
      452838 449836 446833 440829 430826 427824 425820 423815
      421816 419822 415826 411826 409824 408817 405816 397821
      399829 403832 416842 422848 426849 431849 442848 450848
      452849 456849 461848 469853 475860 479866 481872 480878
      479885 476890 473894 473897 478899 482899 488903 492906
      495909 498913 504916 510921 518926 534933 541934 544936
      547941 550952 552966 552974 548977 544982 542987 536992
      527992 524991 521989 517984 510978 505972 499965 495959
      492955 488953 484952 481949 477950 479957 482968 490988
      492993 495998 501008 505015 508019 509024 509029 511034
      511039 512043 512051 508050 502043 494029 490018 485010
      481009 478007 471002 465996 458989 451981 448976 447971
      445966 445960 449953 452952 454948 457945 455940 445925
      443921 442915 441912 441906 441899 444894 451891 457890
      459887 459881 456877 451875 441873 437872 432872 422873
      415870 409865 404858 395849 391845 388843 384841 379841
      374842 371840 369837 364836 356841 353842 353839 353834
      356825 361818 366812 373805 389790 392788 397787 404783
      408781 410778 412775 412770 411766 409764 405762 398759
      393761 393759 394755 396753 401745 403740 404734 403721
      401715 399711 394708 391712 385719 378727 374731 370730
      363735 356741 352745 347746 344746 332735 337718 361686
      371670 381657 388650 396647 400643
 0.01 461255 460252 458250 455251 452251 450252 447253 445255
      443257 442259 442263 445262 447262 449261 452260 455259
      457258 459257 461255
 0.01 258817 255812 251808 247805 247800 244796 240799 238805
      239809 242810 243808 246809 249813 253816 258817
 0.25 474619 482626 490636 498651 500657 503665 504682 504691
      503700 499716 497725 494731 489736 485739 480742 473744
      467749 462753 457758 451762 446766 444770 441776 439782
      436790 432792 428797 424803 417811 415811 414808 413797
      415788 417784 419782 425778 427776 427772 426754 427748
      427745 423745 421749 418747 416742 417736 418728 421721
      424716 425711 422694 418687 413684 408684 404686 396689
      391691 389693 389696 383708 378714 373718 364727 359730
      357730 355726 355717 356710 359703 363697 370686 384667
      394655 400652 406651 411650 417648 421637
 0.25 467873 467871 466868 466867 464866 463868 462871 464873
      466874 467873
 0.25 449862 448862 447860 446859 445858 444858 443858 441858
      439857 438858 436859 435861 436863 437863 438864 440865
      442865 443865 445865 447864 448864 449862
 0.25 441822 441820 439818 439817 437816 437813 437812 436811
      435809 435808 433808 432809 433811 433813 434814 433815
      433816 434817 435817 436818 437820 438820 439823 441822
      441822
 0.25 429862 427860 426858 425857 424857 422856 420856 419856
      418855 417855 416856 416858 417860 419862 419863 421863
      422864 424864 426864 428863 429862
 0.25 393796 391795 390796 388797 386798 385799 384800 383801
      382802 381803 380805 380806 379807 380808 382809 383808
      385807 385806 387804 388802 389801 390800 391799 392798
      393796
 0.50 462623 463625 466626 472627 477629 482634 483639 484643
      482651 481655 482660 484669 483677 485680 488678 490677
      493678 494683 494689 492695 490701 487719 483725 479729
      471733 466737 457744 451743 449738 449734 448730 445731
      437733 433734 429734 426733 424729 427724 426719 431712
      432704 428700 428696 429692 431685 434678 435673 434669
      430664 426657 428649 431634
 0.50 442752 441749 439747 438744 439741 441738 439736 433735
      431742 432752 432761 431769 432776 433776 434773 436768
      439762 441755 442752
 0.50 425791 425789 424788 422788 421789 420789 419792 418795
      418796 418797 417799 417802 417804 419805 420804 420803
      421801 422801 423799 423797 424796 425794 425793 425791
 0.50 425860 424859 422860 421858 420858 422860 424860 425860
 0.50 399667 397663 394663 391664 385672 379679 372688 367698
      365709 366714 370714 374710 375704 380695 387687 393680
      399670 399667
 1.00 482700 480700 477699 475699 472700 470701 469704 468709
      468712 469716 471717 474716 475714 478711 480709 481706
      482703 482700
 1.00 475657 474655 474654 472654 472655 472658 473660 475657
      475657
 1.00 459689 458686 454685 452683 453679 453674 451669 450669
      447675 445681 444688 443696 445700 445697 447697 453696
      457691 459689
 1.00 444710 444709 442709 441711 440711 439714 441715 442713
      443713 444712 444710
 1.00 438717 438716 436717 434717 436718 438717 438717

$$





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