Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 301824
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 31/0000 UTC THRU SEP 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

VERY HIGH PWS..AT OR ABOVE 2.25 INCHES..WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL THIS PERIOD..EAST OF THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THRU THE EASTERN GULF AND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BEING DRAWN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN SIDE THIS TROF.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS VICINITY OF THE FL EAST COAST UNDER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER H85 SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW..AND ALSO ALONG
PARTS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW.  WITHIN THESE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXES..SOME 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE..BUT IN GENERAL OUTSIDE
OF THESE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS EXPECT TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE
0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE..ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE STATE.


...EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC...

THE LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO H5 S/WV THRU THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES..AND EVEN MORE
IMPORTANTLY A CONCENTRATED INFLOW BAND OF VERY HIGH PWS INTO PARTS
OF SC AND NC THIS PERIOD..WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY TO POSSIBLE
EXCESSIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN SC INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS
REGARDING THIS HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND EXTNEDING FARTHER INLAND INTO SC THAN NC..AND
WENT ALONG WITH THIS IDEA.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SC INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA..WIT ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG H5 TROF WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE REGION WILL BE IN A RISING
HEIGHT REGIME..SOME CONTINUED SHEARED OUT H5 ENERGY MOVING INLAND
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED DECENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP THINGS RATHER WET..PARTICULARLY IN THE OLYMPICS AND
THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES.  THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL MASS FIELD
AND QPF AGREEMENT HERE..SO STUCK CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS AND
WPC CONTINUITY.


...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES

STILL NO BIG CHANGES TO THE AXIS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
STRETCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST..GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION THRU
THIS REGION..WITH UVVS POSSIBLY ENHANCED OVER MORE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM H5 MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 564913 564903 564891 562881 560872 557867 552865 547868
      541874 513912 510916 507921 502926 499934 494947 494960
      494964 492967 487979 484990 481999 480002 477004 475004
      473007 473016 474019 474023 475031 471051 469058 468068
      465075 463079 462086 463105 461109 460113 459122 456129
      455136 454143 453147 452151 451158 454162 457161 459158
      460156 464154 467155 469153 470143 473140 478141 482142
      485144 489150 488155 485158 479157 475156 475159 476164
      480165 483167 483172 482181 480187 478191 476194 472198
      468205 464211 462214 459215 457219 458222 455231 454239
      450244 447251 449257 454266 457272 460278 467288 470289
      472288 477284 481280 483278 486278 490279 492282 497291
      501296 504297 506295 512287 519276 520269 520261 520253
      517246 514238 512230 513225 514219 515215 519223 523230
      528234 531229 536215 539208 540200 540195 539192 535185
      523161 518155 514151 500143 492137 488131 483126 475119
      474115 475111 478107 482103 487101 498093 502087 506080
      507076 510074 515069 522062 528055 531048 531040 523031
      520026 518017 524002 532988 538973 542961 546947 558925
      564913
 0.01 501640 499625 495619 491619 487621 483628 480637 478648
      475667 473677 471686 468707 468711 470716 477714 485712
      491706 497699 498696 499690 500679 501669 501645 501640
 0.01 465710 464703 460698 454698 453703 450709 449716 448724
      451728 455728 456725 459721 462716 465710
 0.01 224061 226068 230076 235082 241088 252097 262105 269110
      278111 286109 294106 302107 309111 314116 317117 320115
      322113 325113 334116 345130 351133 361134 367133 373130
      384122 391117 400115 404114 399108 387113 381115 374118
      371120 368119 364117 360115 357111 352106 352103 353099
      357092 364091 371089 374093 378095 389096 398095 410091
      414083 415072 419065 425060 427053 421045 417041 416032
      412028 408028 405030 391035 382037 378039 372038 365039
      359043 354048 351055 350059 346061 344063 339065 333068
      326075 321078 314081 306080 298077 264064 252058 239051
      236049 230048 225054
 0.01 422775 421761 420757 419755 415752 412754 409759 404771
      400777 396780 392782 384788 381789 379793 372799 369802
      365806 364793 363787 364781 366773 367762 365750 363745
      359743 353739 345745 330759 323765 315769 307772 299775
      278774 268775 261776 255778 248781 239786 234791 230798
      228807 229813 231818 241837 242841 245844 253848 260850
      265849 269848 284838 291831 294828 299824 302823 307822
      312822 318823 325825 327827 329833 330846 331854 333857
      335858 338858 345858 351857 354858 356860 359863 364863
      367861 370860 373862 376863 376869 373878 370887 365898
      362907 358912 356918 353926 352930 351936 352941 354944
      357941 361936 361932 363927 366916 371906 377896 382890
      390890 395883 398876 403869 408859 412847 413832 417809
      420790 421780 422775
 0.01 398795 398793 395793 393796 390801 385806 380812 374817
      370820 376825 381825 383822 388817 392810 395803 398795
 0.01 305937 306929 305921 302912 299907 293907 288916 282916
      276918 273921 271925 271940 268949 265955 264961 262963
      259963 255961 250960 245961 240962 237963 234969 235976
      242981 254982 266982 276980 285975 291967 297960 301950
      304939 305937
 0.25 534212 535207 536201 534195 529183 523171 520164 516161
      511160 505160 503161 501165 500168 500172 503186 510196
      517206 521212 527215 531216 534212
 0.25 514272 516264 517256 514247 510237 508227 504217 500209
      497205 493203 485203 477207 472211 470215 469218 471221
      474224 476227 469233 467235 465239 466243 469248 475253
      481261 486267 498281 502284 506283 512277 514272
 0.25 531923 531920 531923 531923
 0.25 500059 499054 497051 494050 492051 486055 483059 481062
      479072 477081 474087 478087 481085 487081 492077 495071
      499062 500059
 0.25 403072 403066 402064 397062 393063 387067 378065 374066
      371068 372077 375081 379082 384076 388075 390078 393080
      395079 400079 401076 403072
 0.25 378053 378051 377051 376050 374050 372050 370050 369050
      367050 365052 367054 368054 370054 372054 374054 375054
      377054 378053
 0.25 355793 353784 353773 351766 345765 340766 331769 320776
      314779 303782 287783 269785 254788 247791 241797 237802
      236808 237816 241824 247837 253840 262840 270839 277836
      282832 284829 285823 287817 291816 295816 305816 315815
      322816 328817 334819 339820 345819 350815 354810 355806
      355799 355793
 0.25 348090 349086 348082 347081 343080 341080 338082 336084
      335086 334090 335094 336096 340097 343097 345096 347092
      348090
 0.25 297094 296091 295086 290081 284077 278075 269073 262070
      249064 241061 238060 237062 238065 238068 240074 250083
      260092 266097 269098 274098 287099 294097 297094
 0.50 531210 531204 530199 528188 526182 524179 519171 515168
      511167 507168 505174 505179 506182 512191 517198 521207
      525209 529210 531210
 0.50 513271 514267 514262 514253 510242 506229 502218 499213
      494208 485207 479210 476215 479219 483222 490233 495242
      499247 502253 501259 498256 493244 491239 489237 486236
      483237 481234 478230 473233 470238 472244 477250 484258
      497276 501281 504281 506279 509274 513272 513271
 0.50 349782 349777 346773 341773 335775 321781 313784 302786
      286790 282792 280796 277796 272796 265793 261793 257794
      248797 243803 241806 241812 243819 246828 247833 251836
      259838 266837 274835 277833 280829 281824 279821 276819
      272818 263817 259817 255814 253811 254806 259802 267800
      273799 277801 278806 280807 287810 294811 302811 318813
      327813 339811 341809 343805 346798 347788 349782
 0.50 289087 286083 279081 272079 267076 261075 260078 263080
      264085 269089 271090 272087 268083 272083 273085 279087
      284089 289087
 0.50 258080 257079 256077 255077 255079 255080 257080 258080
 1.00 512260 510249 507240 503231 500222 497216 494213 486213
      483214 483217 486220 490227 494236 500244 505252 510259
      512260
 1.00 504276 503269 501263 497257 494252 491246 488241 486241
      485245 487253 489259 492264 496270 499274 502278 504276
 1.00 479241 480239 479236 478234 476234 475235 474237 475240
      476242 478242 479241
 1.00 344785 344781 343779 339780 330781 322787 315789 309789
      303791 299794 299800 301803 311806 316808 320809 327809
      333808 337804 338799 340793 342789 344785
 1.00 275828 273824 268823 265822 260821 256820 252818 249818
      251822 251828 253832 258834 262834 267834 271832 274829
      275828
 1.50 502275 502270 500265 497261 495257 493253 491250 490254
      491259 494264 496267 499271 502275 502275
 1.50 506245 505239 503235 500230 498226 496221 493217 492217
      490220 491223 493227 494233 496237 499240 502244 504246
      506245
 1.50 339788 338784 334783 330785 327787 322792 313792 306795
      305799 307800 313803 320804 327806 332805 334802 335794
      339788
 2.00 501241 501238 499236 498237 499238 500240 501241
 2.00 496262 496261 496259 495258 494256 493255 492256 492258
      493260 494261 494262 495263 496262
 2.00 335789 335788 333788 332789 333791 335789 335789

$$





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