Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 261855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
154 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 27/0000 UTC THRU FEB 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN CALIFORNIA--GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN ROCKIES

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERAL AREAS
OF HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING INTO AND THROUGH THE MEAN TROF ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. DAY 1.  THE LEAD AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IN THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON---SUPPORTING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA---WILL BE KICKED EASTWARD BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1
PERIOD BY THE UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY.  WHILE PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW---WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IN
THE FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE WASHINGTON/OREGON
CASCADES---OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST RANGES---NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL SIERRA AND INLAND THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND IN THE WASATCH/UINTASS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE GREATEST
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND HEAVIEST PRECIP/SNOWFALL TOTALS
IS THROUGH THE WASATCH--CENTRAL TO NORTHERN SIERRA---NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA/FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES. SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION.

FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ALONG
AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF 30N OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST DAY 1.
THIS ANOMALOUS PW PLUME MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY AS A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
ROTATE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BASE OF THE MEAN WESTERN
TROF.  THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS STRETCHING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST BAJA AND INTO
COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  CONSENSUS AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS FOR AREAL AVERAGE TOTALS OF .50".  THE LATEST ECMWF---ALONG
WITH THE UKMET---REMAIN THE FARTHER NORTHWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE
LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE.  THE LATEST EC HAS ALSO TRENDED HEAVIER WITH
1"+ AMOUNTS INTO COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  MOST OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP CLOSER TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.  AT THE MOMENT---DAY 1
QPF WAS DRAWN TOWARD THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD SOLUTION---WITH AREAL
AVERAGE .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS DEPICTED,

EASTERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY---CENTRAL GULF COAST

THE ABOVE MENTIONED LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF THE
MEAN WESTERN TROF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PUSHING QUICKLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.  A RAPID
RETURN OF HIGHER PW VALUES EXPECTED OFF THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO
EASTERN TX  AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  THIS AND AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE COUPLED JET EXIT/ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WILL SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN CONVECTION TONIGHT OVER EASTERN TX---WITH THIS
ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST AND EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION.  WHILE THERE ARE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LATEST MODELS---CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.  THE
HEAVIEST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE THE HI RES ARW---NSSL WRF AND NAMX
CONEST.  THESE MODELS WERE USED PRIMARILY FOR DETAILS AS THEY HAVE
SHOWN BEST SKILL OVERALL WITH DEPICTING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
AREAS.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS PARALLEL
TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT---BUT OTHERWISE A EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH OF THE HEAVY PRECIP AREA IS EXPECTED.  THE 1 HOURLY PRECIP
RATES FROM THE HI RES ARW---NAMX CONEST AND NSSL WRF ARE IN THE
.50-1" RANGE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF RUNOFF ISSUES AT A
MINIMUM GIVEN HIGH FFG VALUES AND THE EXPECTED OVERALL EAST
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 513670 511651 508643 504639 501640 500643 497644 495635
      493635 490640 487642 484641 481636 479635 478638 480670
      475682 472685 468686 466692 458702 457705 453710 449714
      448717 448720 449724 451723 454721 457719 459715 465713
      468720 469724 468727 462736 461753 462762 460769 455781
      454788 453794 453798 451801 452811 454817 455822 450833
      447847 448855 455855 459858 461859 463857 464855 468853
      473853 479852 482848 486834 490820 493807 499778 503749
      505742 506734 506717 507712 509711 511703 512697 513689
      513670
 0.01 511170 511165 510160 511157 511152 508148 502141 496135
      495129 494122 491107 489094 487083 482062 482052 481039
      481035 484030 485017 486001 486993 487987 488972 488965
      489960 490944 491933 492915 490903 488898 485899 484901
      480910 477937 473960 470985 466008 466024 468032 467056
      467065 466070 465072 465078 465083 466088 465093 463101
      455095 452092 449091 447092 441091 437091 435090 428084
      425082 424077 422074 419071 417069 417066 421063 425062
      425055 421052 416051 414049 411051 407054 404055 399055
      395057 391061 386063 385068 386070 384071 377064 374061
      368060 363066 361067 359065 358066 363069 366069 368071
      370075 371080 373084 375094 376099 379101 385094 389093
      391096 392100 392106 378114 374117 371118 368118 356116
      350110 345102 341093 340091 338089 335090 330097 326098
      324100 323104 324108 325118 321123 320129 320132 318135
      315138 315144 318150 316153 312151 307149 302149 301150
      300154 300159 300167 300173 294196 293205 294211 296215
      299222 303221 306218 326189 330180 334179 336182 338187
      342188 344179 344172 343168 340164 339159 338152 339148
      340145 346146 351146 355143 358138 360133 365134 369141
      371144 375147 385159 388159 391155 395156 397161 395166
      395172 399178 402183 406184 412181 416181 417186 413195
      410200 405202 399202 394200 387195 379190 371183 367182
      363182 355183 354185 357187 366191 371197 375201 376205
      376211 373214 364212 358211 354213 353219 353225 355229
      360234 365235 367234 370235 371240 375244 378246 381248
      383251 386250 396252 407254 424256 433254 442254 451254
      458254 463253 466251 474250 478248 480245 481240 481233
      478229 478225 479222 483221 488221 489216 490208 487205
      482201 478200 475201 471199 466193 466186 468182 470179
      475179 485182 493181 500181 505177 511170
 0.01 460205 460200 458197 457195 454196 451201 447206 443205
      442201 439200 434203 433208 435211 441212 446212 451211
      456209 460205
 0.01 453127 452124 450124 446126 441122 436120 428130 427132
      426137 425143 422150 422154 423157 423159 426163 428164
      430163 431161 432158 429151 430144 431137 432133 435131
      439132 446141 448140 449136 451129 453127
 0.01 429178 428176 428175 427173 427172 425170 423172 421174
      421176 421178 421181 422183 423185 425184 425183 427182
      427180 428180 429178
 0.01 420142 420133 419130 416128 414130 410130 405127 400129
      397129 396133 394140 395144 398145 401150 405150 406148
      412147 418144 420142
 0.01 423100 423096 422093 421088 421086 418083 416082 413082
      413087 414090 414094 414099 415102 416105 418104 420102
      423100
 0.01 413798 412788 411778 411774 408772 405771 402773 400778
      398788 395800 393808 388812 384817 381824 378831 375839
      368847 361858 355861 354853 348851 345843 339834 331835
      326837 314845 309849 305854 300865 289890 287893 287898
      286904 287912 288920 288929 290935 292939 292944 292955
      295960 293965 293975 297981 303982 307978 320971 324968
      329963 337954 344944 348938 352931 354926 358920 362916
      366912 378911 382909 383905 385898 385893 387890 387883
      389877 393872 396867 399861 402854 404846 410831 413817
      412806 413798
 0.01 398222 397219 396217 392215 391213 387211 384210 381211
      380215 381220 384220 388221 391222 395223 398222
 0.01 362751 361747 359745 354746 349748 345749 343751 338755
      337760 338767 340771 342770 347768 352764 355760 359756
      362751
 0.01 301815 301811 299808 295805 290803 286799 278792 273790
      266792 262792 260794 256797 253802 251808 250814 251816
      254816 257811 260806 261804 265804 270805 278812 284815
      290815 296816 301815
 0.25 474216 473214 467214 459216 456218 452218 444216 434216
      429216 426218 423222 425227 426232 423234 420233 415232
      410232 406233 398238 397241 401244 412248 421250 431249
      439247 447243 450239 448235 448229 451224 455222 458225
      462225 466222 473217 474216
 0.25 470158 471152 470148 468145 466144 463146 461150 456155
      458162 454169 453173 452177 453182 455186 461183 463180
      464174 462170 462166 466159 470158
 0.25 455159 454158 453157 451156 449157 448157 447158 447159
      448160 449161 451162 452164 454162 454161 455159
 0.25 449112 449107 446102 442100 440099 437100 434097 431092
      428090 426093 427095 430099 430104 423107 423109 419111
      414110 411106 410101 408096 405100 404104 400108 396110
      390114 383119 383122 388123 397122 404120 415121 423119
      438113 446117 449112
 0.25 442151 441151 440149 439151 439153 441153 442151
 0.25 405217 405213 403212 399207 394203 389200 384196 379193
      376192 373193 376198 380202 385207 390209 394212 399216
      405217
 0.25 412073 412071 412068 412067 410067 408066 407067 406068
      406070 406071 407072 408074 410073 411073 412073
 0.25 381124 379121 375123 374125 373127 372131 373134 373138
      375140 377137 378135 379130 380126 381124
 0.25 386856 385850 383847 375852 372855 371859 368868 361872
      353878 348879 345875 341867 337859 335854 333850 330846
      325846 319849 313854 307862 303882 301890 300902 299914
      299921 300926 303935 306946 306952 305957 301966 300970
      301975 305975 309972 322962 328958 334951 344936 348930
      350925 351918 354909 359903 362899 363895 366884 371877
      376871 383864 386856
 0.25 355122 355120 354119 353117 352117 351115 350115 349114
      347113 346112 346111 345112 344114 345115 346116 347118
      347119 348121 349121 350122 352123 354123 355122
 0.25 335169 333164 329161 319156 312154 309154 306155 306159
      306166 306179 301191 302197 304199 307199 312198 315195
      320186 327179 333171 335169
 0.50 443223 443222 441220 440220 438221 437221 436222 434222
      433222 432223 430222 429223 428223 428224 430225 432226
      434226 435226 436225 437225 439225 440224 441224 443223
      443223
 0.50 439241 435239 430238 426238 421236 416235 412238 412240
      415244 420246 425246 429246 432245 436243 439241
 0.50 418116 414113 412113 409110 409103 407103 405107 402110
      398111 394113 395117 398117 403117 408118 413119 417117
      418116
 0.50 400213 399211 398208 396205 394204 391202 389201 386199
      384197 382198 382200 383203 385205 388207 392208 394209
      396211 398213 400213
 0.50 356894 355887 352885 349886 339891 341877 335875 331875
      328872 331865 328856 327852 326850 320852 316856 311861
      308868 307875 305882 304891 303907 302914 303923 304932
      306939 308946 308954 306959 305966 307968 310967 316962
      324954 332944 339934 341927 343918 345911 349906 354899
      356894
 0.50 332169 333166 331164 327162 324160 319158 315156 311156
      309160 309164 310169 313173 318174 324174 327172 330170
      332169
 1.00 327165 325163 323162 320160 318159 315158 313158 312163
      313165 314167 317168 319168 323167 325167 327165
 1.00 339910 340906 340901 338899 336900 328908 321917 317921
      314926 311939 310945 312950 315951 316954 319952 325941
      326935 328932 332927 334921 336915 339910
 1.00 326889 325886 323883 320881 318883 315890 312894 310896
      312899 310897 308901 308909 309913 312915 316909 320902
      324896 326889
 1.00 309888 310886 310884 309882 309884 309886 309888 309889
      309888
 1.50 331911 330909 328911 330912 331911
 1.50 328915 326913 326915 326917 328915
 1.50 325924 324922 321924 319929 316932 316935 314937 312941
      312946 315943 317939 319935 321931 323928 325924

$$




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