Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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150
FXUS04 KWBC 241845
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 25/0000 UTC THRU APR 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE TAKING ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT DAY 1 AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUES TO TAP AS AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---BRINGING THESE HIGH PW VALUES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS AREAS
FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC---NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THE SLOW MOVING TRAINING CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN NC.
HOWEVER---WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASED PROGRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY---THIS ASPECT OF THE STORM WILL
DECREASE--ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW ARE STILL
LIKELY.  MODEL WISE---THE GFS PRECIP AMOUNTS SEEMED TO BE TOO
LIGHT GIVEN MODEL CONSENSUS AND WAS NOT FAVORED.  THE WPC QPF WAS
DRAWN CLOSER TO THE HI RES ARW AND IN HOUSE HI RES MEANS--WITH A
BROAD REGION OF .50-1"+ TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH HEAVIER
TOTALS OVER SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN NC FOR THE TRAINING POTENTIAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES---CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER LAKES

A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST DAY 1 FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---NORTHERN GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER MS VALLEY.  SEVERAL AREAS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THIS BROAD TROF WILL SUPPORTING A BROAD
REGION OF PRECIP STRETCHING ACROSS THESE AREAS.  A LEAD AREA OF
HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH PRECIP EARLY DAY 1 NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LAKES AND ONTARIO.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TWO ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HEIGHT FALLS
---ONE PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTH GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST---THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
SOUTHWEST.  A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
LIKELY AHEAD OF THESE AREAS OF HEIGHT FALLS---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS  IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST
SD--NORTHEAST WY---NORTHWEST WY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT.  LATE
SEASON HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER DETAILS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD---THE NEXT UPSTREAM AREA OF
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD THE PAC NW
COAST.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP
TOTALS IN THE .10-.25" RANGE FROM THE CASCADES WEST TO THE COAST
RANGE FOR DAY 1---WITH HEAVIER TOTALS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 549811 549800 549791 547776 544760 543754 542747 537733
      534729 532730 529734 527739 522750 517757 514765 511773
      510785 507795 503806 500817 497827 493838 489848 485859
      480865 479872 475875 468883 461893 458893 452892 442894
      437894 434897 429902 425909 417925 413934 410935 409940
      403968 403991 400005 397016 396024 398028 407035 403043
      400044 399041 396031 392024 387018 385015 381014 371014
      367012 365016 363030 363038 362043 361049 358052 350057
      339053 329057 326059 331060 338062 342065 345067 346071
      345074 341076 335079 330080 330085 332089 338097 341105
      343108 347110 349104 349096 350089 350086 354084 357083
      361086 365094 371098 374102 379103 385095 389093 395091
      400091 403093 404095 403099 401102 395106 387109 384111
      381114 377119 373123 372129 374133 380133 384131 389131
      395132 399130 407126 411126 414129 417133 415139 405141
      401145 397147 394149 391156 387161 386168 387173 388177
      391180 393182 397180 400180 403177 408173 412175 415179
      418187 419192 415193 413196 411200 413205 417206 420210
      421213 420217 418221 420226 422229 419230 413230 409233
      403233 398230 394227 390229 390232 392237 395239 397241
      395242 388248 385252 383258 383262 383267 384271 386273
      393278 396281 401283 413286 417286 423288 441289 448291
      453294 460302 463307 467312 470315 476318 483318 489314
      496311 500311 503306 510283 516262 517254 514248 509240
      501222 500219 497217 493220 492227 493231 498242 500249
      497248 496245 491239 487237 484238 479232 474230 470232
      467232 464230 467225 471223 476220 479217 480211 475208
      469207 466202 464196 465192 467187 468177 471173 475168
      478168 479170 482175 486177 488177 490175 491168 491164
      494161 501166 506172 513179 517188 523192 528189 532187
      533181 535174 534171 531146
 0.01 531146 531139 530133 531127 531122 530121 527116 524114
      522112 519113 508112 502110 498107 486095 483092 480088
      475079 469071 466065 462054 459041 457030 455020 454014
      454006 454989 460969 463958 467946 474950 477959 480964
      483966 489966 493963 498956 503949 508947 513947 520942
      525934 529926 534917 536911 539905 542894 543885 545870
      545852 545837 547827 549811
 0.01 490754 489747 488743 485735 473723 456705 451698 446694
      441687 435683 424677 420671 415667 390683 362686 352688
      344690 329699 317708 312711 308716 302721 298726 289740
      287747 286750 286755 286763 283767 281771 282776 284783
      292786 301786 316787 320792 323797 325809 329815 331819
      334821 341825 347828 354828 359826 363823 378815 385811
      388808 392807 398804 406803 408804 408807 405813 403817
      406820 412821 422821 432819 439816 444813 448808 451803
      456809 459810 462810 465802 470794 474786 478781 484768
      489760 490754
 0.01 480155 480152 480150 479148 478147 476145 475144 473143
      471145 471146 470148 471150 472151 474153 474154 475155
      477156 479157 480155
 0.01 406220 407215 405212 399207 394201 387198 381192 374190
      373195 375198 379203 384208 391213 394215 397217 400218
      404219 406220
 0.25 540791 539780 536775 533776 528782 525788 512817 505834
      500850 497858 494866 490873 487879 482897 476912 475917
      475922 477927 479930 485933 491934 498932 505931 512928
      516923 520917 524907 529892 537855 539844 539831 540810
      540791
 0.25 522160 523152 522146 521141 519138 513131 508128 505126
      490120 481119 479112 476101 473092 466085 462077 456061
      453044 451032 449022 447010 444000 443991 443978 443972
      444969 448961 451952 455944 455937 452935 447930 442921
      440919 436921 433928 431935 422950 412968 409976 408985
      407996 408005 409019 409026 414029 416031 419034 422039
      418053 416059 414060 407057 376065 370061 367061 366064
      370069 372077 374082 376085 380086 383085 386084 390084
      399081 405078 411077 419075 422076 424079 424087 425091
      427096 428100 426105 426111 427116 433116 440117 445123
      448126 451126 458125 475123 477123 479124 481129 485138
      491144 496148 507157 517162 521162 522160
 0.25 504278 504273 501267 499265 496260 494256 492253 490255
      489260 492265 494269 497273 499277 503279 504278
 0.25 463178 463177 461176 459176 458177 456177 454177 453178
      452180 452181 451183 451184 452186 453187 454188 456187
      457187 458185 459185 460183 462181 462179 463178
 0.25 451222 451220 450219 449219 447218 446219 445219 443219
      441220 440222 441224 441225 442225 444226 446226 448225
      449224 450224 451222
 0.25 447162 447160 446158 444157 443157 442157 441159 442161
      442162 444162 445163 447162
 0.25 427245 428242 428241 426240 424239 423238 421238 420238
      419238 417239 417240 419241 420242 422243 423243 424244
      425245 427245 427245
 0.25 444087 444084 444083 443082 442081 441080 439080 437079
      436079 435078 434078 433078 432080 432083 432085 433087
      435090 436091 437090 438090 440089 441089 442088 444087
      444087
 0.25 433708 432702 430699 425697 420699 412703 406705 397708
      388707 372706 361707 349711 341715 335719 331722 327724
      318729 313736 309743 308747 307753 308765 313771 319774
      323776 328776 332778 336782 339789 338799 340807 343811
      347815 354818 363817 370812 378806 390796 399792 405791
      411789 419785 423780 428772 430767 431761 432740 433722
      433708
 0.25 423117 415113 412109 411103 409100 406102 404106 401109
      393112 386115 384120 388121 395118 401119 406121 413121
      421119 423117
 0.50 533838 533828 533817 532800 530799 527801 524806 520816
      511836 502860 497870 493879 486904 485911 484916 485920
      489922 494922 512916 516912 519906 521901 523894 525880
      528868 531855 533840 533838
 0.50 470108 470100 467094 464091 462087 457075 454065 452059
      452050 449039 445025 443014 440010 434008 430009 428013
      430037 430046 429055 431068 433073 439075 446080 449085
      450092 448097 446099 444101 444105 447109 451112 455113
      464112 469110 470108
 0.50 444954 444947 443944 440943 430952 422961 417966 414972
      411989 411994 413998 417003 416010 419013 425008 425999
      427980 432976 435971 438963 442958 444954
 0.50 420728 419722 417719 415717 410717 402720 394720 381716
      373714 368714 358716 350720 338726 332730 326736 321741
      318746 316766 321771 324772 328772 333776 339782 343787
      345794 349801 354808 360811 366811 386790 391785 401784
      407781 412777 416771 418766 418760 420743 420728
 0.50 397066 396064 394065 393065 391065 389066 388068 387070
      387072 388075 390077 390078 392079 393077 393075 394073
      394071 394070 395069 396067 397066
 0.50 380076 379075 378074 376076 377078 378078 379077 380076
 1.00 518861 519850 516848 513851 511856 506867 502878 501885
      499891 495901 494906 496907 498906 502903 505899 509895
      511891 514887 516882 518866 518861
 1.00 452076 451071 450066 449060 448053 448048 445044 442045
      441048 439051 437057 438064 440068 443072 446075 450076
      452076
 1.00 406743 405737 403734 397731 386726 372722 365723 360725
      353728 344732 338735 335740 330745 328748 330751 335755
      340757 345761 353762 356764 357768 355769 351770 344769
      336767 333765 332769 335774 339780 345786 351797 356803
      362805 368802 368796 367792 367787 368782 371780 383775
      387769 395766 397763 398759 397754 399749 402746 406743
 1.00 384759 384758 383756 382755 381754 380754 378753 377755
      377757 376758 376760 376762 377764 379763 381763 383762
      384761 384760 384759
 1.50 447070 447068 447065 447063 446060 446058 446057 444056
      442057 442058 442060 442062 443065 443066 444067 445069
      446070 446071 447070
 1.50 391736 386732 381730 374728 368729 354734 347737 342740
      336745 337749 347755 355757 359759 365763 368763 369758
      369752 370746 372744 376744 379745 382744 389741 391736
 1.50 364800 363791 362783 359778 355774 350773 342772 338773
      341779 345783 348787 352792 355797 359800 364800
 2.00 365746 364742 360740 355740 349740 344743 341745 341748
      345751 349753 353754 357756 360757 363758 365753 365747
      365746
 2.00 359790 359785 358781 357779 355777 352776 350775 346775
      343776 343779 345781 347783 349785 350787 351789 353791
      357792 359790
 3.00 360747 359746 358745 357745 356748 356749 356750 358750
      359749 360749 360747
 3.00 354784 354783 352783 352784 353784 354784 354784
 3.00 352780 352779 350779 349780 350782 352781 352780

$$





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