Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251909
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 26/0000 UTC THRU NOV 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

MOIST WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THOUGH INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE MAIN FETCH OF PACIFIC FLOW
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL
FOCUS THE MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA BY
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH AMOUNTS TWEAKED LOCALLY FOR
TOPOGRAPHY.


...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/LOWER MO VALLEY
REGION...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER-TYPE
SHORTWAVE...BUT STRONG ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING ALOFT
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL.
WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF.


...EASTERN SEABOARD...

HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
FOSTER A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WELL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED SW/NE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. THE DEVELOPING WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
EVENING AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY JUST
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS. THE LOW WILL
INTENSIFY AND APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATER WEDNESDAY.
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE LINEAR BANDS OF STRONG CONVECTION
IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING. THE HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE 12Z ARW/NMMB AND ESP THE
12Z NAM-CONEST FAVOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FL...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE COAST...AND THE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INTENSE CONVECTIVE BANDS ALSO IMPACTING EASTERN
NC AND ESP THE OUTER BANKS BY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
FARTHER INLAND INCLUDING THE INTERIOR OF THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST...GRADUALLY BACKING LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR AN EXPANSION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY A ROBUST
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TAP. IMPROVING UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SUFFICIENT
COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN INITIALLY
THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST UP ALONG AND JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD SEE RAIN FROM THIS EVENT. WPC QPF
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GEM REGIONAL AND THE 12Z GFS.
PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER
DETAILS.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 456625 460627 464630 467633 469636 473646 473658 472668
      471678 469689 466700 437772 432781 427788 420792 414799
      403811 397817 390822 381827 377829 374831 367837 360841
      343847 330859 315867 306870 298874 283883 279884 277881
      274871 271868 266866 258869 249871 244871 240870 236863
      230859 228855 227849 229840 231837 230834 228829 228824
      229820 229816 232812 238807 252797 264786 262776 265773
      270773 273770 278769 282767 287765 294761 299759 301757
      309752 315746 329734 344724 371703 382688 392673 402659
      408652 415647 424640 434633
 0.01 526255 528248 530237 533222 535219 536209 537199 536192
      535178 532165 528153 525139 516116 504098 498087 493077
      487068 481060 478056 475050 469041 467036 464030 458022
      454020 448019 442019 439020 435023 430023 418022 414024
      412026 412031 412045 411057 403053 399054 394057 391061
      388063 388067 387071 384071 380071 379073 377078 379079
      383074 386075 389077 391082 399080 405078 410078 415076
      418074 418071 423070 429072 432076 435081 436087 435091
      433091 416110 413110 411108 409105 410101 408098 406101
      405105 401107 396108 389111 385115 390116 392115 395115
      401116 405119 412120 418121 422122 423125 425129 429126
      436118 440117 444119 447123 448128 447138 445140 442141
      438142 436148 436154 440159 447167 452179 453184 458185
      463184 466182 468182 470185 472189 474196 471203 467206
      463206 460206 458208 454212 445216 446222 448225 450226
      454225 458227 447239 447241 450244 455246 465248 470250
      473255 477267 481278 487285 491290 494292 498295 502295
      506295 508294 512287 519276
 0.01 497860 497846 496835 496830 494827 488823 483826 479831
      475837 473840 472845 472852 471856 467861 461876 457883
      453889 448894 443899 437903 429904 422902 415898 410894
      406889 397878 391874 386872 379868 373866 365867 361867
      358870 356876 356883 358888 360891 363894 364898 366905
      362911 360918 362924 366930 369933 371934 375936 379936
      388937 391943 396949 407956 407973 431988 453004 459008
      464013 470016 474016 476015 483015 488010 490002 491990
      490985 489978 486972 484969 481969 477968 478964 482958
      486954 489946 489934 485929 481927 482924 489909 492901
      491893 489885 490881 493876 497860
 0.01 452799 449794 447792 445795 443800 441803 438806 435811
      435814 439816 442815 445812 447814 449814 450811 449808
      449804 451799 452799
 0.25 522256 523245 523234 523224 526216 527205 526196 526187
      525177 524168 521161 514148 511141 507135 500125 487099
      482094 480095 482099 486111 452096 438098 434101 432107
      434111 438112 441111 445112 450115 456110 462111 465116
      462119 460122 459126 456134 455139 454147 455154 466164
      470168 476168 482171 486178 486184 484194 480201 475204
      466213 463215 462218 463221 466224 478222 482223 485225
      486234 483235 481234 476228 473229 471232 470238 471242
      473245 478251 485263 493274 498280 503284 508283 512276
      518266 522256
 0.25 452666 451659 449655 444649 438648 428651 421655 415659
      409664 403671 393683 383696 373708 362717 349728 338738
      332744 327751 317761 305770 292778 284782 281784 283787
      280791 275796 265808 255818 245829 240835 238842 238847
      240852 243854 247854 263850 270847 277842 295840 299841
      301846 304852 310856 318855 331848 344838 358830 370822
      382811 392801 398793 403788 412775 422762 429750 436734
      443717 447697 450679 452666
 0.25 439945 438939 436935 433931 429928 426926 423925 419928
      421931 423933 426938 428941 430945 433947 438947 439945
 0.25 412073 413068 412064 409065 405064 403065 401068 399070
      397071 396076 399076 401074 403072 406074 408075 410074
      412073
 0.25 316830 316828 315826 315824 315822 314821 312822 311824
      311825 310826 309829 310831 311832 312833 313833 314832
      315831 316830
 0.50 518257 520246 519238 517219 513204 512194 515190 517184
      517178 515171 511165 508162 505162 497159 493159 490161
      490167 491175 492180 492185 489193 486201 482204 476207
      472211 470215 470218 475220 482221 487225 489228 490233
      487236 484238 481237 478231 474231 472236 473240 475242
      480247 484253 491266 495272 499277 505277 509272 515265
      518257
 0.50 485138 485133 483130 478129 474129 469129 467132 466140
      463143 459145 458150 460154 463157 469163 478163 481162
      481158 477155 476151 474146 475141 479138 484139 485138
 0.50 444671 443665 441660 436657 432656 428656 419661 410669
      399682 389695 379706 369716 358725 346736 341741 336747
      332752 327758 316766 303776 298779 292784 287791 283796
      274805 263816 253826 248831 244837 243841 244844 249847
      259845 266843 273840 280837 287834 294831 305821 311816
      316813 326810 332813 333828 330836 332839 337837 340834
      345830 352827 358823 369815 375810 380805 390792 399780
      408768 416755 423742 430728 437712 439704 441696 443682
      444671
 0.50 411070 410070 408069 408070 408071 410071 411070
 1.00 513255 513247 512241 510233 507229 502215 495206 492204
      488205 484207 475214 478217 483219 489223 492229 494236
      497241 500246 502253 503257 505258 509259 513255
 1.00 500267 502259 498256 495252 494248 491244 488241 487241
      485243 487249 489252 491257 493261 495265 500268 500267
 1.00 479238 478235 477235 476234 475235 474237 475239 477240
      479238
 1.00 468150 467149 466148 464147 463147 462148 462150 463151
      464152 465154 467152 467151 468150
 1.00 433669 427667 422667 416671 412675 396695 377714 361731
      342749 331758 323765 317770 313774 303782 295790 287800
      270816 260825 253834 253837 255838 262837 275833 287829
      292826 297821 306813 316805 328799 334796 337793 347783
      351779 357775 371770 374770 378771 381777 386776 391772
      398761 406750 412739 418727 425715 428709 430702 433689
      433678 433669
 1.50 504239 501233 499225 497219 494214 487212 484212 482213
      484217 490220 493225 495233 498237 501239 504239
 1.50 418686 417682 414682 411684 403692 388707 373722 366730
      360736 344751 328764 319771 314780 299794 291800 284807
      270821 266825 265829 270831 274829 285826 294820 309806
      317800 324794 334788 342781 350774 358768 365761 372753
      380745 387739 392736 396732 399727 400721 399716 401712
      410706 414694 418686
 2.00 392711 390710 387712 385714 379720 368732 345752 332763
      325768 322773 317780 311786 306792 301797 289808 279817
      273823 273825 276824 284820 292816 316797 341778 353767
      364757 385733 390721 390714 392711
 3.00 367744 364743 360745 356748 345756 335765 331770 327775
      325777 322779 318784 314789 313791 317790 322786 327781
      333779 338775 347766 357758 362753 366748 367744

$$





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