Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 220656
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 22/1200 UTC THRU AUG 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...

THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES..VICINITY OF THE
INITIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL FINALLY GET
PUSHED SOUTHWARD THRU THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY.  A RATHER BROAD BUT MODERATELY STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS..WITH PWS FORECAST TO INCREASE/POOL TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2.25
INCHES VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS..COMBINED WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK H5 S/WV ENERGY MOVING THRU THE REGION ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES/TOP SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE..WILL
SUPPORT THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT..WITH CELLS GENERALLY
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR AT LEAST
SOME TERMPORARY TRAINING OF CELLS.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE RAINS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH ISOLATED GREATER THAN 3 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE..WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF A BIT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO PORTIONS OF VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC.


...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER INCREASINGLY WET PORTION OF THE NATION
BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT..AS THE H5 TROF DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN STATES..ALLLOWING A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO
STRENGTHEN AND OVERRUN A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM PARTS OF
IA WESTWARD INTO NE AND SD.  EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY..A STRENGHENING EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AND VERY MOIST
LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH PLAINS..SUPPORTING ENHANCED RAINS OVER
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NE AND WESTERN SD.  A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL
QPFS WERE QUITE WET HERE..AND FOLLOWED THEM CLOSELY..WITH AT LEAST
SOME 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINS EXPECTED AND SOME ISOLATED
HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


...NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES..AND
ESPECIALLY MT...

A VERY WET PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING HERE ALSO..AND AGAIN DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THIS PERIOD..AS A VERY COOL SEASON-LIKE H5 TROF
DIGS INTO THE AREA.  THIS MID TO UPPER TROF AMPLIFICATION AND A
MARKED STRENGTHENING OF THE VERY MOIST EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET INTO ESPECIALLY MT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINS/CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF MT..WITH SOME HEAVY TO
VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS BACK IN CENTRAL MT.
 MODEL QPFS HERE ARE ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEAVY
TOTALS..AND STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS..WITH AT LEAST SOME
1-2+ INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY IN CENTRAL MT AND ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS
POSSIBLE..BUT WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THRU
MUCH OF MT.


...NM...

TO THE SOUTH OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHWEST..THE
CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN AZ WILL BE KICKED THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THIS OPENING UP SYSTEM MAINLY FROM EXTREME EASTERN AZ THRU
NM..WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN A SEASONALLY
MOIST AIRMASS.

TERRY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 535182 536174 535168 530159 526150 522146 520141 515130
      514124 511120 508105 507099 505094 504081 501071 498059
      495050 493041 491037 489033 487029 486023 485012 479002
      473996 461996 458996 457993 455987 452974 449964 445959
      442956 436948 433943 431937 431923 428898 426887 425875
      424869 425863 431857 433853 440852 444854 447857 453865
      455866 454869 450872 449874 449878 451883 453891 458893
      461897 466906 467910 470913 475922 479931 483939 487945
      490947 495948 504945 509945 512947 516950 522950 526947
      528944 533935 533920 531912 528908 521905 509905 503906
      500906 498903 495902 495898 495885 494880 491876 488872
      484869 473862 467856 465851 461847 455840 447836 438832
      434830 430830 423835 420831 418825 417821 418816 419811
      425802 425797 424792 420791 421786 426778 433771 438765
      443757 447751 450743 452730 450715 449711 447709 443710
      437716 417724 408731 401739 395745 390747 386746 381745
      377746 368748 363744 356740 353738 350737 347736 344738
      340742 339748 340753 342758 352774 355786 359797 361803
      361812 359824 359831 360836 364841 370844 376851 382859
      387866 391874 393886 395892 399896 402907 403921 403929
      403937 402945 401951 400958 398963 394975 390986 389990
      386993 379999 373004 365009 359013 352016 346020 341020
      338019 330023 326026 321027 314030 309032 304034 286041
      276044 271045 264045 254044 247044 239046 236048 234052
      234058 235063 240071 246077 251083 259090 268094 272098
      277099 287100 292099 298099 303100 308102 314103 320103
      329107 332110 338111 344106 347103 349101 352102 359108
      363114 365117 369118 375098 377097 377101 378106 377119
 0.01 377119 378122 380124 379132 379142 381147 382149 385148
      392148 403151 407150 410152 412160 416172 420173 423172
      429170 434167 436166 439168 444172 446175 450176 452179
      456180 461180 465180 469180 477183 478188 477192 473196
      465208 461213 459214 459218 461221 464221 468221 471220
      481219 488217 492217 495216 504213 507210 510209 515204
      523195 525190 530188 535182
 0.01 313888 312882 311879 310869 306852 305841 303837 303832
      301823 297817 293813 286808 281806 274804 268802 264800
      266797 268794 268790 265789 263790 258795 253802 250807
      243810 240817 238825 239834 242836 244834 246826 248822
      249824 251832 255836 259843 262846 266846 273843 277840
      284836 288834 291836 295842 298849 302867 303877 303881
      305884 305892 306895 309894 313888
 0.25 505145 505137 504132 502121 496097 491081 489068 488055
      486044 482035 476027 469020 459010 453003 449995 447989
      445986 439980 435976 433971 428961 425954 424941 424931
      422917 421904 419892 418885 414883 411887 410893 408901
      406911 407923 408936 410948 412958 414972 414978 410977
      403979 398987 391002 388012 386021 388028 388035 389040
      392045 393048 397048 404045 419041 430040 438040 448044
      450049 449054 434082 404100 399108 394114 391117 390120
      391123 397124 401126 405125 409123 412125 416130 416136
      417141 420142 426137 430132 433129 435129 436132 437143
      439150 442153 449158 454159 459159 464160 469161 481152
      497151 503150 505145
 0.25 433747 433744 432744 431742 430742 428741 427741 425741
      423742 421742 420744 419745 418746 418747 419748 419750
      420750 422750 424751 426751 428751 429750 431750 431749
      433748 433747
 0.25 409854 409844 406836 401827 398820 396813 396807 397800
      398792 397784 394780 390776 382767 375760 369757 364755
      360754 356753 353754 352758 353762 356769 357776 360782
      366795 368800 369809 367816 367821 368826 371831 374835
      381845 388854 395864 398869 400871 403869 406861 409854
 0.25 376080 376078 377076 376074 374075 374076 375078 375080
      376080
 0.25 362063 361060 358059 350060 335060 330060 324055 321051
      324046 328040 323041 313045 288054 276059 268060 262060
      256058 249056 244057 246063 258070 263074 267078 271081
      278085 285086 293086 314075 330074 344074 351073 357070
      360067 362063
 0.25 263813 262811 261809 260808 259807 258807 256807 255810
      255812 256814 257815 258815 259816 260815 261815 262814
      263813
 0.50 498144 499137 498132 497125 494117 492108 489093 486080
      484071 484063 483056 483052 480046 477039 474034 469031
      466028 462021 459015 449007 444002 440998 436988 433980
      430973 425968 422968 421970 420988 419992 417994 413994
      406993 402998 398004 396012 396021 396029 398035 403038
      415035 421036 428035 435035 440036 446037 451039 456043
      458052 456063 453071 445076 443079 445082 450085 415116
      418121 421122 422119 427113 430112 432114 438117 443118
      446123 447128 446133 446138 447142 449148 451151 454151
      461152 466151 469146 473143 480144 491146 496146 498144
 0.50 419938 420931 420924 419917 417914 415907 414903 412901
      410903 409908 409915 409922 410929 411933 414938 416942
      419938 419938
 0.50 407114 408112 407110 405112 404114 403115 403116 401117
      400118 399119 398120 399120 401120 402119 404118 404117
      406116 407114
 0.50 402848 402841 400834 396826 391817 390810 390805 394793
      393787 390785 386782 384779 383775 380771 374765 366761
      363760 361762 359767 359775 361780 367788 373794 374798
      372804 371815 370821 371826 377832 388848 396854 398854
      401853 402848 402848
 0.50 314064 312060 308059 302063 297064 292063 282064 271065
      268066 266070 272077 276078 281079 290077 298074 304069
      310068 313066 314064
 1.00 493140 488127 485121 484115 484104 484095 482089 479084
      474080 468079 463081 460086 457103 459111 461116 463123
      466127 476134 481138 487140 491141 493140
 1.00 448027 447022 445019 442014 438007 436999 434992 431985
      429983 426981 425984 424989 425001 425006 423009 417007
      411008 406014 402019 401022 402026 403028 407029 415029
      423031 429029 437029 444029 448027
 1.00 392840 392835 391832 388826 385820 384813 383808 382804
      379803 376808 375815 377821 380825 383832 387836 391840
      392840
 1.50 486136 485130 483126 479117 480102 480096 477092 471087
      467088 464092 462104 463109 466114 467119 470123 476128
      481135 486136
 1.50 439024 439019 437016 436014 435011 434008 432004 431002
      430002 431006 431009 430011 430015 431018 432022 433024
      437024 439024
 1.50 419022 419017 417015 415014 412015 410017 408019 406021
      405023 407025 409026 412026 414026 417024 419022
 2.00 477107 477104 477102 477100 476099 475098 474097 472096
      470095 469095 469097 468098 468100 467102 468105 469108
      469109 471110 472108 473108 475108 476108 477107
 2.00 473118 472116 472115 471113 470115 470117 472118 473118

$$




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