Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211859
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 22/0000 UTC THRU JAN 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY---LOWER OH VALLEY--TN VALLEY---SOUTHEAST

PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ACTIVE DAY 1 FROM THE MID TO LOWER MS
VALLEY---LOWER OH VALLEY---TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STRONG AREA OF SOUTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY---TN
VALLEY REGION.  PRECIPITATION INITIALLY DAY 1 MAY REMAIN MOST
ORGANIZED OVER THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION---BUT RE-FOCUS FARTHER UPSTREAM
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW.
THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS---BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING DAY 1
PERIOD THERE SHOULD BE ONE PRECIP MAX IN THE COMMA HEAD
DEFORMATION REGION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AMPLIFYING CLOSED LOW
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY---WHILE
A FARTHER SOUTHEAST AXIS COINCIDES WITH THE MAX REGION OF MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FL AND
THE SOUTHEAST.  FOR QPF DETAILS---THE IN HOUSE ENSEMBLE MEAN  AND
HI RES ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE USED PRIMARILY TO MITIGATE THE LARGE
SPREAD IN THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED ACROSS THESE AREAS--WITH AN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUING IN AREAS OF TRAINING THAT MAY OCCUR IN
THE MAX MOISTURE FLUX AXIS OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO NORTH
FL AND THE SOUTHEAST.

CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

MAJOR SURFACE TO MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED DAY 1 TO THE
SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  A WELL DEFINED
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER LIKELY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS AMPLIFYING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW---WITH AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES... 2.5-3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN AND AN
ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX AXIS IMPACTING MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ENTIRE CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE AND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SIERRA---WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN THE TWO
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SACRAMENTO VALLEYS. THE THREAT OF
RUNOFF ISSUES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA---ESPECIALLY ACROSS BURN SCARE AREAS.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH--- WITH THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
REMAINING WELL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS PERIOD---THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND THE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TERRAIN.  THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIP TOTALS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST TO MODERATE LEVELS---MOSTLY IN THE
.25-.50" RANGE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 514272 515256 513243 510233 509227 510219 506211 501202
      500196 501188 503179 506179 509179 511177 513174 512170
      508160 504152 498144 486130 475128 470120 467117 463121
      467123 469128 472136 475141 474144 465141 461141 459145
      461156 458157 456155 454149 448140 447133 449128 460113
      464112 464107 463104 461103 455102 450095 447096 441093
      439094 435095 433092 426086 424100 422102 419105 417109
      414109 413107 410098 406095 404100 387110 380114 371117
      366116 362117 355124 352134 351141 349148 344157 335161
      330161 326162 324165 322170 314188 313195 313200 313206
      316211 323219 324230 327239 332246 345259 354264 361270
      366274 372276 384280 404287 412291 417291 423293 432294
      436294 440292 445290 450287 453284 455280 457274 460270
      467265 477268 481268 486270 494272 497273 498275 501279
      503282 506283 510281 514272
 0.01 516897 517888 516879 515869 514861 509833 506825 505820
      502816 498812 495810 490804 483795 480791 476789 469795
      463802 460791 459784 460778 458768 456754 451743 449738
      443737 442741 442749 442754 442762 438772 436775 432778
      420788 416792 414789 414784 413776 414770 415759 418747
      421728 423723 422718 421713 419707 408683 394674 388670
      384669 380670 375671 370670 360672 356674 353679 350684
      347687 338702 325734 321738 318742 316748 313753 303768
      298773 293780 281793 255818 249824 244831 238836 235842
      230852 231856 234862 237864 242867 250869 255869 259867
      265866 271867 267883 265888 267894 269896 274900 278902
      282902 289898 299912 303918 308924 312929 312937 315941
      318939 321940 323944 330952 335958 339967 343974 345983
      346991 347997 347004 350008 354018 358025 362032 363038
      365043 367051 363051 359053 356055 357058 369055 372053
      377053 382052 386054 389056 389060 385062 378066 371061
      367061 364063 360064 357064 357067 359067 364068 369068
      373071 374074 374078 374083 377087 380086 386087 391089
      394090 396088 402082 405079 410076 413075 413073 417067
      422065 426065 425061 423057 422059 419062 416062 402053
      397052 394050 385045 380044 377041 373036 374033 375030
      381024 383019 384013 385009 386001 386988 387980 389975
      393963 398940 399934 400930 401917 400910 400903 400896
      401890 402883 403876 405864 408852 411845 415836 420827
      432817 436815 440816 446818 447820 449821 449824 446835
      446839 442841 439842 435844 436849 439851 445856 450866
      451870 454874 456874 457878 457885 458892 456898 457908
      460920 462925 465929 468933 470938 474947 476953 477959
      481969
 0.01 481969 486975 490983 493987 497989 499990 502986 504983
      504975 504962 502949 502944 505939 506934 507929 511918
      514908 516897
 0.01 494156 494153 493151 492150 491148 490148 488147 486147
      485148 484151 482153 482155 483158 484158 485160 486159
      487158 489157 490157 492157 494156
 0.01 463703 462698 459695 455697 453699 448704 446708 442709
      438711 437715 439717 443718 445719 445724 445728 446732
      451732 455731 458728 459725 461716 462706 463703
 0.01 449080 450078 449078 448075 446075 445072 443072 443074
      444075 446077 448078 449080 449080
 0.01 392082 393080 393078 392076 391077 390078 389079 390081
      390082 391083 392082
 0.01 340098 340096 340095 338093 337093 336093 335095 334095
      335095 336097 336098 338098 340098 340098
 0.01 301086 301084 299081 296080 294079 290078 288080 285079
      282080 283083 284086 286087 290088 293089 297089 299088
      301086
 0.01 260793 261788 259786 256786 252787 250789 249791 248794
      248796 249798 252799 255798 257796 259795 260793
 0.25 500238 500230 497225 494223 492224 491227 491232 492238
      492243 488241 483242 480237 478231 475230 473231 469235
      469239 473243 482248 486252 489257 493260 495258 495254
      495243 500238
 0.25 489201 490194 487189 486188 483190 472198 467200 461203
      454221 450219 447222 446229 443232 438234 431234 428232
      425233 423230 424227 430224 433220 431216 426207 421200
      416196 410190 408192 406196 402198 400195 395193 392190
      389188 382182 377176 376166 378163 381166 384173 386176
      389176 391171 392165 392162 390157 388154 382152 379150
      378146 376138 374136 370136 369141 369145 369150 366152
      362154 359156 360162 361168 357171 352177 350181 347178
      345169 342166 337167 332170 328188 327194 327199 328209
      331215 336222 345233 348235 349239 349245 352249 358255
      364261 370265 376267 385269 393273 408280 413282 418282
      426282 432280 434276 434270 435261 441256 451247 465239
      466234 464234 460233 459230 468220 474217 478216 482215
      487209 489201
 0.25 493876 493871 492866 490861 489858 487861 485866 484869
      482869 479872 474875 472883 472888 473891 478892 483891
      486885 490881 493876
 0.25 452173 452171 451170 451168 450167 448167 447170 448171
      449173 449174 451174 452173
 0.25 441154 441151 440149 440148 439146 439145 437143 435142
      434143 433143 433145 433147 434150 436153 437155 439156
      441154
 0.25 399742 399735 398727 395717 392709 390705 387703 380702
      372704 365708 359714 353720 345724 339729 335734 331740
      328748 322763 315779 311784 306790 288812 274823 269826
      270834 274842 281846 285850 286854 286860 286869 290878
      293879 296878 300876 305876 317870 322869 325871 328875
      329878 330885 330892 328902 326919 328926 335931 339937
      345942 351948 354950 355956 355964 355969 357975 360978
      365978 369972 371961 375954 381947 384940 389924 391915
      392902 392885 392871 391865 389861 379852 374847 370840
      369830 366818 366815 368810 373803 376797 379789 382782
      385775 389767 392759 395749 399742
 0.25 360197 359195 359194 358193 356192 355191 354191 352190
      351193 352194 352195 353196 355197 357197 359197 360197
 0.50 465216 465214 465213 463212 462211 460212 459215 459217
      458219 459222 460223 462221 464219 464218 465216
 0.50 433251 435248 436243 432239 425235 417230 418218 417211
      415211 410210 408206 401201 393196 389194 386190 380185
      374178 371175 366174 360174 356175 354178 352184 354189
      358191 364196 368200 364202 358201 353198 350194 348185
      342168 339169 336173 333176 332182 331196 333204 336211
      342219 349225 356230 358234 358239 358246 359249 363254
      367256 374261 385264 392268 404273 413275 417273 419269
      423260 426256 429255 433251
 0.50 390741 389735 388730 384723 380719 375719 369723 362725
      354728 348732 342738 338744 334748 331755 327768 321782
      318789 314795 305803 295813 286821 280826 279830 281833
      287835 294835 292850 291859 294868 309867 315857 322855
      328857 332861 335869 335888 336897 338905 338914 341921
      344928 348934 364954 375945 379940 382934 384925 386916
      387899 386884 385873 381868 373865 369859 364846 360830
      359821 360812 368799 374787 377781 378773 382767 384762
      384756 386751 390741
 0.50 367762 366753 365750 361749 354752 350756 348762 347769
      348774 350781 354781 357779 362776 365771 366764 367762
 1.00 428243 426239 421236 414233 414227 416220 415215 410215
      399203 391199 386194 379187 373182 366179 361177 358178
      355183 356187 362191 369196 374202 379208 381212 379215
      371212 369212 367210 365207 356203 351198 345182 343173
      340172 338176 336179 336182 336191 337198 338202 342208
      346215 351220 360225 367229 379239 388244 396247 402249
      410247 421247 426245 428243
 1.00 397257 396256 396254 395252 394251 393251 392253 393256
      395256 395257 396257 397257
 1.00 396222 395220 393219 392218 390219 390220 391221 393223
      395223 396222
 1.00 380904 379901 376898 373897 371899 369907 366915 364918
      363923 362932 364939 370941 375935 378927 380918 380907
      380904
 1.00 357863 358858 358855 356848 353837 348826 344816 338807
      337800 335795 331790 326792 320800 314807 307814 304818
      302823 301828 300834 299847 300855 304856 310854 313851
      317843 322838 326836 332837 335839 337841 338845 340850
      343862 346866 351867 355866 357863
 1.50 415222 414217 412216 409217 406215 402209 396203 389199
      385194 380190 373185 366181 362180 358181 357184 359186
      365191 376200 388208 394214 399219 404219 404224 405228
      408232 411230 413227 415222
 1.50 404235 401232 397230 394228 390225 386222 382223 378226
      379231 383234 387237 392239 397240 402240 404235
 1.50 376226 374218 372216 369216 365211 361208 351201 348194
      347189 344183 344175 342173 339179 340186 339191 340197
      342202 345207 348212 352217 357220 369225 373227 376226
 1.50 331809 332802 328798 327799 323803 319810 314816 309823
      307827 307833 308839 310843 312842 313837 318831 323824
      328816 331809
 2.00 413224 414222 413219 412218 411218 410219 408220 408221
      407222 406224 407226 407227 408228 410228 412226 412225
      413224
 2.00 402216 401210 397206 389201 385197 381193 374186 365182
      360182 359185 369192 377198 385203 393211 396215 401217
      402216
 2.00 391232 390230 390229 389227 387226 385227 385228 385229
      386230 386231 388232 390233 391232
 2.00 373223 373220 372218 372217 370217 368219 368221 369222
      371224 373223 373223
 2.00 366218 365214 362211 357207 354204 351203 348204 349199
      347190 345187 342190 343200 348205 351212 356217 362220
      366218
 3.00 399213 398211 398210 397209 395210 396212 397212 398214
      399213
 3.00 380194 378192 376190 374189 371187 368185 366184 362184
      361186 364187 367188 369190 372191 375193 377195 380194
 3.00 363216 363215 362214 361213 360212 358211 357211 356211
      356212 358214 358215 359216 361217 363217 363216
 3.00 347198 347196 347194 347193 346191 345190 344191 343193
      344195 344197 344198 346200 347198

$$





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