Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181805
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
104 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 19/0000 UTC THRU FEB 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...WESTERN U.S...

THE FAIRLY LOW LATITUDE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT VERY HEAVY RAINS TO
SRN CA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD AND ELONGATE INTO AN OPEN TROF AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT SW/CNTL ROCKIES REGION BY LATE SUN.
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LOW WITH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SLOWING DOWN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPR TROF.  BROAD
BUT DEEP LAYERED SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD A
SWATH OF MODERATE RAIN AND HIER ELEV SNOWS NWD THROUGH THE 4
CORNERS REGION INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH THE LATTER
GETTING AN ADDED BOAST FROM NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE
ACRS THE PAC NW SAT NIGHT/SUN.   GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
KEEPING THE REALLY DEEP PAC MSTR SUPPRESSED ACROSS BAJA AND WRN
MEX..BUT SUFFICIENT LOW TO MID LEVEL SLY FLOW COMBINED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
HIER ELEV SNOWS PARTICULARLY ACRS THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION OF CNTL
AZ AND THE SWD FACING SLOPES OF THE UINTA MTNS OF UT AND SAN JUANS
OF SW CO.  FOR QPF DETAILS...STAYED REASONABLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE ARW/NMM ALONG WITH CONTINUITY TO BETTER CAPTURE TOPO DETAILS.

ACRS THE PAC NW...WITH PASSAGE OF UPR TROF ACRS SRN CA..EMPHASIS
WILL SHIFT BACK NWD TO THE PAC NW AND NW CA AS WAA PATRN ENSUES
AHEAD OF A SERIES OF UPSTREAM S/WVS MOVING EWD TOWARD THE COAST.
LEAD SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE PAC
NW COAST SAT NIGHT WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT HANGING UP
OFF THE NRN/CNTL CA COAST AS NEXT IMPULSE APCHG 140W ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL WLY JET TO INCREASE TOWARD THE NRN CA COAST BY THE END OF
THE PD.  TIMING WISE..THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN REASONABLY GOOD
CONTINUITY WHILE THE NAM APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A FASTER
OUTLIER.  AS A RESULT..TENDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD SYNOPTIC TIMING
OF THE GFS/EC WHILE INCORPORATING WRF ARW/NMM FOR BETTER TOPO
DETAILS.  WHILE MDTLY HEAVY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
CASCADES/WA COASTAL RANGES SWD INTO NRN CA NORTH OF SFO..INCLUDING
THE NRN SIERRA..THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
THIS PD. SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER.

...SRN PLAINS...
WITH THE APCH OF SRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS IN THE WEST AND INCREASE
IN MSTR FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE SRN PLAINS...SHWRS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FROM SRN TX NWD INTO OK ON SUN..MAINLY IN THE
AFTN/EVE.  INSTABILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACRS NCNTL
TX INTO OK NEAR THE RED RIVER.  IT WOULD APPEAR THE TIMING FOR
BETTER STORM DVLPMENT WOULD OCCUR AFTER 00Z GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER EWD TREND OF THE UPR TROF AND THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FROM CONTINUITY.

...SOUTHEASTERN U.S/CNTL APLCNS...

WEAKENING CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE TN VALLEY/CNTL
APLCNS REGION SAT NIGHT AND OFF THE SRN MID ATLC COAST BY SUN AS
AN OPEN WAVE.  SCTD CONVECTION IS LIKELY EARLY IN THE PD ACRS
PORTIONS OF SRN GA INTO FL BEFORE DRIER NWLY FLOW ENSUES ON SUN.
HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE SPREAD IN AMOUNTS WITH THE WRF ARW
QUITE DRY AND THE HI RES NAM CONSIDERABLY WETTER.  THE
EXPERIMENTAL HI RES NAM IS CONSIDERABLE DRIER BUT DOES SUGGEST
SOME SPOTTY .25"+ AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING ACRS SRN GA/NRN
FL AS VORT MAX ALONG SRN BASE OF TROF MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER..MOST OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO SLOW WITH LEAD
CONVECTIVE LINE..SO PRELIM GUIDANCE HAS LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER
AMOUNTS.

...NORTHEASTERN U.S...

NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE CLIPPING NRN NEW ENGLAND AND
LEAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PCPN FROM NRN NY ACROSS VT/NH/MAINE DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 536223 530218 521210 515205 509202 507202 506205 504209
      505215 509225 513234 517239 518244 520255 521262 520269
      515278 511283 509286 505287 502290 498292 493290 483286
      479283 476282 475285 474306 472312 469316 467321 463322
      459323 457322 448323
 0.01 560104 557086 554080 548075 545073 540071 532070 524069
      520070 518072 514078 513083 516091 517094 515097 514100
      511107 512111 512118 515140 517143 517149 516154 514153
      502145 496140 490134 476125 472121 469115 470108 472103
      471095 473088 469090 466094 463095 460098 458100 455098
      449094 445092 438093 433092 426088 424091 424094 411085
      410082 412080 417077 418072 418066 418061 416057 384049
      377050 372048 367046 363047 356048 355052 352055 349057
      343058 336056 329053 323049 318047 314047 310049 307051
      311072 304074 300074 296072 285067 279065 270063 270060
      274058 281055 287052 294048 300046 296046 278044 261039
      242037 238036 234037 227041 226052 232063 236065 236068
      231074 226080 226090 226094 232095 237097 243098 252100
      258102 264108 267110 269114 284126 290130 295132 293136
      291138 286137 281134 273130 272130 274139 276144 280147
      293158 305165 313169 322172 333173 336176 338179 340183
      342184 345180 344175 345171 344167 345162 347160 351159
      353155 355153 361152 365151 368153 372163 378165 382163
      386162 389164 399174 404180 409182 411184 411187 411192
      408196 403197 397196 386193 378189 368180 352182 348186
      347190 347194 350192 353190 358191 363194 366197 376206
      378208 378210 373211 370210 365211 358214 350215 339216
      332221 329229 329237 330247 333254 337262 339266 343269
      351275 358282 430307 438319
 0.01 489613 494627 496636 498639 499645 505664 507677 509687
      512706 513717 515727 521750 522760 525770 532805 536828
      538839 539850 541853 541858 542868 543878 544889 543893
      541891 536891 533889 521885 516884 512879 505867 497854
      489841 477815 474808 471797 465780 463772 462766 461755
      461751 462748 465741 466734 465728 466723 463720 460720
      457723 452733 447748 446752 444754 441757 437758 434759
      432757 430754 429750 436741 438736 436734 432730 437724
      439721 438717 437714 440711 445705 451695 457681 458676
      457670 455658 455653 456648 458642 466636 467628 469621
 0.01 446075 445072 443070 443072 445072 446075 446075
 0.01 397800 391773 391769 386770 382775 381777 382784 381789
      376800 371808 367812 364816 359824 355835 352844 354850
      358854 363861 365868 368872 371874 375871 379867 381861
      388840 389828 390821 390813 397800
 0.01 396007 396000 394997 388997 385996 383995 375987 368978
      363972 356966 347959 337956 332956 329957 316958 310960
      305960 302961 298961 295960 292962 288962 285964 276969
      268976 259980 241986 236989 233993 231005 232015 235024
      241033 247034 251033 257027 262020 267010 271005 275002
      278001 282999 285998 288999 289004 296012 305019 309020
      312022 320018 323014 327008 331006 336004 345008 347011
      349013 352014 358014 360012 363012 368011 374010 380008
      386009 392009 396007
 0.01 294708 275721 263729 253737 248740 246744 241756 238762
      237771 239783 237807 239815 241818 244821 248825 252826
      256822 261819 264815 269811 275813 281816 282819 280823
      276828 270837 264847 260862 260867 262869 268870 275870
      279868 284865 289861 310845 314843 316845 320847 331854
      334852 334849 336845 336841 331824 330809 332794 337779
      343766 348757 355746 359732 363717 365706 364698 362689
      361683 359679 355676 347678 345680 341682 334688 324690
 0.25 555138 554119 554111 553102 551095 549092 546090 542089
      537089 533095 531101 530116 529121 529126 531128 534133
      532133 529134 530140 531143 536154 543165 547173
 0.25 497229 496223 495219 491214 487211 480210 475211 470211
      462209 454212 445213 433216 428214 424216 422216 420213
      418209 412209 408208 382198 380198 380201 383204 388208
      391211 394216 396219 394222 382222 373222 363224 358226
      353231 350235 347241 345247 346252 351262 359272 363277
      370277 372264 378253 382248 387246 391247 393249 397253
      416265 421268 424274 426277 429279 435280 440280 443277
      445273 446267 450263 455261 459258 463253 469248 473244
      474240 473237 471231 471227 474222 479220 485220 489222
      493228 497229
 0.25 500180 500174 499170 496162 494156 489153 485152 479152
      476154 472154 464148 456153 450150 446145 443137 443132
      445129 450119 450113 449109 440104 435102 433097 428093
      429097 431103 430106 428108 422112 418113 414111 412107
      411101 410096 408094 405093 399094 395091 391086 386083
      383078 382072 380068 378066 375066 370066 369070 368081
      366087 361088 357087 355082 350080 346082 343083 339081
      335079 328078 325082 325086 324091 322092 313093 308088
      301082 292078 284074 273069 269068 262067 256065 251061
      243050 239047 236047 237052 239055 246064 246078 250080
      255082 266086 272091 277096 283102 286107 289109 292113
      293115 296115 301115 304117 305119 308125 310130 312133
      318134 325132 332136 338135 344137 349138 354137 362134
      367135 373138 376137 379135 383132 386124 390123 393124
      401126 412126 417126 421128 425131 428135 430140 430148
      432160 435167 439172 446177 444186 448188 452187 460183
      463180 465174 468172 473173 476179 479182 484186 489186
      496185 500180
 0.25 483718 483715 483713 483710 482708 481706 479706 479709
      480711 480713 481716 482718 483719 483718
 0.25 411068 410067 408066 407066 405067 404067 405068 406069
      408069 410069 411068
 0.25 393078 393075 393073 393071 392070 391068 391067 389067
      388068 388070 389072 390075 390076 391077 392079 393078
 0.25 362119 363114 362111 359110 355109 353108 351106 350103
      349101 347103 349106 351108 352110 353114 356115 358117
      359119 362119
 0.25 348729 348721 346717 343716 331711 321703 318702 313703
      306706 295713 283723 263740 260744 258747 258751 258757
      260762 263768 262781 261791 262795 264798 268802 270804
      273804 275801 279799 286796 292797 295803 300803 304802
      312799 317797 322792 330780 344757 348729
 0.25 330168 329166 328165 327165 325164 323165 325167 326168
      328168 330168 330168
 0.25 342982 342980 341978 340978 339978 338978 337978 335978
      334978 332978 330979 329980 330982 332984 333984 335985
      337985 339984 341984 342982
 0.50 548153 549150 548149 547148 546147 545146 544146 542143
      541143 541146 541149 541151 541152 543154 543155 544156
      546155 548154 548153
 0.50 463238 463236 462235 460235 459234 458234 457234 455235
      454235 453238 454240 456240 458241 459241 460240 461239
      463239 463238
 0.50 463226 465224 465221 464219 463217 461216 459216 458217
      457218 456219 456221 457223 458224 458225 460226 461226
      463226 463226
 0.50 449239 448236 446234 443233 440234 437235 436236 434237
      431241 434243 436245 439247 442247 444247 447246 448241
      449239
 0.50 452171 453166 453161 451159 449157 446155 445154 441154
      439156 439161 440163 441166 445169 447170 449171 452171
 0.50 434225 434224 433222 432222 431221 430221 429222 427223
      427225 428227 430227 432227 434225 434225
 0.50 444123 445121 445118 445116 445115 445113 443112 442111
      440111 438111 436112 436114 436116 436117 438119 439119
      441119 443120 443123 444124 444123
 0.50 427245 426239 422236 416233 413229 414222 414218 412216
      406213 402209 394205 390204 392209 394212 399215 403219
      404222 403226 401228 395228 390227 385225 377228 373232
      368232 363231 359233 356239 356248 357251 361255 364255
      366253 369249 374240 378237 383236 389237 394240 397243
      400245 404245 411242 417242 423245 427245
 0.50 438148 439146 439144 439143 438141 437140 436140 435141
      437143 436145 435148 436150 438149 438148
 0.50 409110 409108 410105 410103 409102 409100 408099 406099
      405100 404102 403104 402106 402108 401109 401111 401112
      402114 403114 405115 406115 407114 408112 408111 409110
 0.50 377130 376129 375128 374129 373132 374132 375132 376131
      377130
 0.50 378083 379080 379078 379076 378074 378072 377071 376071
      374072 374073 373075 373077 373080 374082 375084 377083
      378083
 0.50 353122 352117 349112 346108 343103 340092 339087 336083
      330082 330088 331095 330101 328111 328116 330122 331127
      335130 344131 348132 350126 353122
 0.50 343748 342743 342737 342732 340729 333728 324725 322723
      321718 317715 313718 312720 312724 313726 310728 306732
      299740 291748 289753 287758 287766 283768 282771 279780
      279790 282792 285787 289784 297783 300783 300786 300792
      303793 310790 315786 319777 323776 322780 325780 329778
      332773 338762 342755 343748
 0.50 339982 337981 335981 334982 335983 337983 339982
 0.50 303093 302088 297084 286081 279076 271074 266072 260071
      254071 252071 252075 259076 265078 269081 278086 287090
      298094 301095 303093
 0.50 277793 278790 276790 276789 274787 273787 272786 270786
      270787 269788 268790 268792 268794 269796 270797 270798
      271799 272800 274799 274797 275796 276795 277793 277793
 1.00 346116 347114 346113 344111 342110 340111 339110 338111
      337113 337115 338117 339119 340121 341122 342121 343119
      344118 345117 346116
 1.00 328744 327740 323737 320736 316738 313743 312747 312751
      311756 312760 316763 319760 322756 324754 327749 328745
      328744

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