Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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989
FXUS04 KWBC 161911
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 17/0000 UTC THRU JAN 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...
...LOWER MS/OH VALLEYS...

A FAIRLY INTENSE/COMPACT UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...OPENING IN THE PROCESS...WHILE A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRAVERSES THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON TUE. THE WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ELONGATE TOWARD THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE...LEADING TO A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE TROWAL AS A RESULT. A
SWATH OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS WHERE COLD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP-LAYER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THE AID OF A 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FAVOR
AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE  FAVORABLE -- WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES BETWEEN 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS. MEANWHILE THE DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE AS WELL OVERNIGHT...AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK COUPLES WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE DEPARTING NORTHERN JET STREAK. IN TERMS OF THE QPF...WPC
UTILIZED A NON-NAM BLEND...CONSISTING MAINLY OF THE
GFS-ECMWF-UKMET WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM THE WPC IN-HOUSE BIAS
CORRECTED ENSEMBLE QPF. THE NAM WAS ON THE DEEPER/SLOWER EDGES OF
THE GUIDANCE SPREAD...THUS ITS QPF (WETTER OVERALL) WAS
DISREGARDED. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 0.50" IS THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FAVORABLE DEEP
LIFT/MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

FARTHER SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND SOME MODEST DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES GENERALLY
<1000 J/KG) WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RAINS TO BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SOME SLOWING OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST
TX THROUGH  TUESDAY...WHICH MAY HELP FOSTER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS AS THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE
FRONT RELATIVE TO THE MEAN FLOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. SOME OF THE 12Z HIGH-RES CAMS
DEPICTED A SLIVER OF 2-3+ INCH AMOUNTS IN THE 24 HR PERIOD FROM
00Z TUE-00Z WED...HOWEVER ON A LARGER SCALE (10-20 KM GRID) EXPECT
MAX AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-1.5" PER A MULTI-MODEL BLEND.
BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (INITIALLY
HIGH FFG)...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE LATEST SSEO
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF THE FORECAST QPF EXCEEDING THE
CURRENT FFG DO NOT SUPPORT ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL
PLAIN.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO PARTS OF COASTAL WA AND ESPECIALLY THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND NORTHERN WA CASCADES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WA CASCADES AS WELL BY EARLY
TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OR COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN WA/NORTHERN OR CASCADES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT THIS IS JUST THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT IS AN
IMPRESSIVELY LONG-FETCH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT EXTENDS WELL
SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY CIRA-LPW DATA AND AMSU 89 GHZ DATA. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE FOCUSED INTO
SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA WHERE VERY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BEGINNING THIS PERIOD. MUCH
HEAVIER RAINS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SAGS SOUTHEAST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT.

HURLEY/ORRISON


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 450324 454323 458322 461320 465318 468316 471313 474311
      477307 480304 483301 487301 492305 493308 496313 498317
      502316 528246 520239 517234 514228 512222 511212 514211
      516212 518218 522229 524235 528234 532230 534228 535223
      539208 539198 539192 537184 534179 528169 524166 520160
      511155 507151 502149 497146 494140 486133 480132 476133
      472133 472135 472138 474139 481140 483141 484145 483149
      481150 478151 474151 468149 462148 460153 461158 465162
      465167 465172 454176 451173 449177 445183 443183 443186
      445191 449195 453192 456189 461187 463191 463199 463202
      461203 455203 453203 451205 447210 443212 436218 432222
      431225 429234 425237 419237 415240 400253 397258 392262
      389266 387273 382284 379291 377297
 0.01 466705 465702 463699 460700 456701 455703 453706 452708
      452713 453717 455719 459718 460715 462713 464710 465707
      466705
 0.01 464812 464805 462801 461787 459778 457766 455754 451742
      448734 444723 440715 434713 419709 410707 405704 402700
      393685 383671 379665 375662 361671 354677 345683 340689
      337696 332713 330722 328731 326743 324753 313764 311767
      307769 302770 298768 294769 294773 293778 297780 302785
      304797 307801 311802 314803 317800 327788 333782 338775
      341768 346760 355746 363734 369726 370722 373724 377732
      379737 377741 362777 357792 356797 356803 353811 348818
      347827 347833 346837 343844 337863 333870 328876 317890
      311896 303902 291912 290914 289920 285927 275938 268941
      261943 254945 248951 246955 248959 252966 255964 261964
      264968 264972 264984 265989 267993 276007 281012 287014
      291016 294019 299025 303030 304035 304041 303047 301052
      300064 298068 300070 305070 309073 334093 339098 343098
      343095 341082 340078 336074 335070 336064 340056 342053
      340049 336044 335032 332023 329014 330008 331002 335980
      336970 336958 336952 337947 341941 347932 352925 357920
      365915 372912 379910 382912 385915 387918 389923 390927
      390935 391947 392954 395957 402952 407947 409945 414942
      419945 420947 421952 420959 417970 419978 423978 425975
      428973 431969 440957 445949 449940 452933 457925 461904
      458878 460865 464857 465852 465845 463839 463832 460819
      464812
 0.01 393066 390059 392055 393051 392048 387040 385036 384030
      383024 381019 380013 379008 376010 373013 370017 368021
      368033 368041 367045 366048 363049 357048 354052 353057
      350059 347064 346068 349072 349077 352079 358072 362074
      364079 367077 369076 370079 378083 381081 381074 385070
      389072 393066
 0.01 300880 300876 298876 290880 285883 279888 274892 276894
      279894 283893 285896 285901 284904 288908 289902 290891
      295887 300881 300880
 0.01 265798 264798 262797 261798 259798 258799 259800 261800
      262801 263801 263800 264799 265798
 0.25 406307 409304 413303 423301 432298 437299 442299 445305
      450307 454307 459305 467301 474296 482293 486291 491291
      495293 500297 508302 525257 516238 512229 507219 502210
      500205 497201 494202 488201 483201 480203 473209 469211
      465212 463211 460212 457215 449219 445221 443226 443230
      442234 439238 432242 424244 417251 411259 405267 400277
      397289 396295 397300 402306
 0.25 536207 537196 536191 535188 531183 528176 524171 519164
      514162 508163 501162 496165 492169 492174 493177 504187
      513197 519209 523214 528219 531220 533218 536207 536207
 0.25 453821 452805 451794 448779 445767 442753 441747 439741
      435737 430736 421740 414736 411734 406734 404738 403743
      403758 403766 402770 397779 392786 390788 386788 380790
      377792 373796 369804 366812 363824 358846 355856 351866
      342882 331897 320913 314922 308927 297939 290945 284953
      274972 274984 275990 277993 282000 288006 294008 299007
      305008 310006 313002 314997 315992 314989 310990 304987
      300982 306973 321955 335936 346923 370895 376888 379887
      382888 387890 391891 397891 399890 403892 404896 404902
      402913 401917 403921 408919 412915 419908 422904 427902
      431904 433907 436918 438922 441926 444925 447923 450918
      451912 452898 452865 451852 453843 453821
 0.25 376687 376680 373674 371673 368674 363677 356684 350692
      344700 342706 340711 338722 338728 336733 334744 329754
      325763 322768 322772 326774 331771 338763 349747 354738
      355732 357730 358727 365707 376689 376687
 0.50 524260 518246 511231 508224 504217 500209 497206 493206
      486205 480206 469215 462215 457219 455222 454228 448233
      439243 433247 427249 422254 418260 414267 410275 409281
      410284 415289 423289 428288 439278 449270 462274 466276
      469279 470284 473287 480287 486287 493286 499291 505295
      511297
 0.50 534209 536201 536194 531186 526177 522170 518167 513168
      504169 503173 503179 509188 514195 519202 521207 524211
      527213 531213 534209
 0.50 488231 487228 485226 484225 484224 482224 481223 479223
      478223 477224 477225 478228 479228 480229 481231 481232
      482234 483235 484233 485233 486232 488231
 0.50 448846 447822 446809 444800 440780 437770 436763 436757
      435752 433749 430749 426751 425755 424763 418768 413774
      408780 405786 402794 403799 406803 410810 410817 409826
      408830 405832 403836 403841 407847 407858 407864 405867
      398871 394876 396880 400879 407877 411877 413880 417886
      421891 425891 428889 434885 437885 439888 442890 444889
      444886 441883 440881 442877 445869 446856 448846
 0.50 390817 381805 372824 358868 354877 349886 342894 335901
      323917 317925 310931 303937 297945 290953 285962 281969
      279974 280980 284981 289978 297974 304968 312961 325946
      337931 350915 360898 372880 377873 382863 386852 389840
      388833 389827 390817
 0.50 348741 347734 346733 343735 342737 340742 337747 336750
      334754 332759 332761 335760 338755 341753 343750 346745
      348741 348741
 1.00 523264 518254 513242 508230 503220 497210 492210 486208
      482209 478213 480218 486222 489226 490232 489234 486235
      482239 480233 478231 474230 469233 465237 461237 458235
      455236 451240 450246 460245 464247 469250 472255 472262
      476276 497284 505289 513292
 1.00 531202 530194 528188 525182 521176 516177 511179 512184
      516190 519196 522201 526205 529205 531202
 1.00 447253 445252 442250 440251 437253 434254 432255 430257
      429260 428264 430267 434267 436266 438265 440262 442260
      444257 446255 447253
 1.00 370867 369866 368865 368867 369867 370867
 1.00 369871 368867 365869 362874 359879 356885 353890 351895
      350899 351901 355897 358892 361887 363883 366876 369871
 1.00 348910 348905 346906 342912 338919 334925 329930 325936
      323938 323942 328937 332932 337926 341920 345914 348910
 1.00 320937 320932 317931 312934 308938 305942 301947 299952
      298956 299958 304956 307952 311947 315943 319939 320937
 1.50 521269 518260 515251 508234 500218 498215 496213 493214
      484211 482213 483217 487219 489222 491232 492238 487237
      481241 479236 476233 473234 472238 476246 479267 479271
      482275 492277 498282 507287 513287
 2.00 518270 518266 517261 514252 510243 506235 502228 498219
      496217 493218 491222 491227 494236 496241 498245 501251
      496245 490240 488239 485240 483245 481250 481262 481267
      485271 492274 498281 503283 507282 518272 518270
 3.00 514266 512258 509249 507241 503234 499227 497224 494222
      494230 496239 501246 506251 508259 512268 514266
 3.00 504276 503268 501262 498257 495252 491245 487243 485251
      484258 487265 491269 495274 500278 503278 504276
 4.00 502273 501268 499263 497260 495255 492251 490247 487248
      487253 487259 489263 492266 494270 499273 502273
 4.00 504244 505242 504239 502237 501235 500234 499232 498231
      497229 496231 496234 496235 496236 497238 499240 500241
      502242 503244 504244
 5.00 500269 499266 497263 496261 495258 493255 492253 489252
      489257 490260 492263 493265 496267 498270 500269

$$





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