Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 141743
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1242 PM EST THU DEC 14 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 15/0000 UTC THRU DEC 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH A MULTI
MODEL BLEND.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF ND AND MN ON FRIDAY. WHILE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
AXIS OF QPF EXISTS...A MULTI MODEL BLEND SHOULD SUFFICE.

...GREAT LAKES...

A CLIPPER WILL BEING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOLLOWED A HIGH RES MODEL BLEND FOR QPF TO
CAPTURE SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE LAKE EFFECT FEATURES.

...SOUTH TEXAS...

A SHORTWAVE CUTOFF FROM THE FLOW WILL DIG INTO MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR DECENT WAA OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WITH A
STRONG UPPER JET TO THE NORTH PLACING THE AREA IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION AS WELL. THUS A GOOD SETUP FOR A BROAD AREA OF
STRATIFORM RAINFALL. NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER LAND...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF TOTALS. THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE ARE A
BIT LOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
LIKELY A FACTOR IN THIS. FOR QPF THUS WENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
HIGH RES MEAN AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH AMOUNTS MAXING IN THE 0.5"-0.75"
RANGE.

CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 16/00Z
 0.01 566044 566032 563024 561018 560015 558014 549009 542002
      531997 522989 514981 512978 509975 503971 499967 491959
      477944 469937 460932 447935 443932 440935 445940 448943
      454952 457962 457964 460966 463967 467973 469979 475989
      478994 481002 493024 499034 502039 505043 506048 506053
      506062 503068 500073 493084 487093 483100 484108 486122
      486126 483127 479129 475131 473138 471145 468147 463152
      460157 455169 448180 440190 433200 429204 427209 424215
      421219 418223 417227 417235 419240 430249 431253 429255
      430260 433266 441269 450268 459265 461264 462260 465259
      468261 472266 470271 469276 470279 473283 480285 484285
      489285 495284 507283 515276 518269 519263 518256 519249
      515239 516230 518222 520219 523217 528222 532225 535218
      537202 537193 537184 536179 535171 535162 535152 534145
      535136 532128 528121 526118 524116 524111 524103 523099
      524094 525071 528071 529074 531078 542100 545104 547107
      549106 552102 554093 556084 556075 557070 559065 563053
      566044
 0.01 488200 487195 484191 480189 476190 474194 471198 468200
      465204 465208 467209 471208 475207 479205 483204 486202
      488200
 0.01 492934 489917 489898 488886 486878 483864 480857 478850
      476845 476840 476831 474795 473784 472778 473775 472757
      469750 466745 462742 460739 458739 447745 437751 435753
      433751 432749 430750 429754 429763 428769 423774 420778
      415781 411785 400792 396793 395795 395798 400796 402799
      402803 400817 403822 408824 414824 418825 419830 419841
      418844 418848 417854 417864 421867 427870 432871 438871
      442871 446872 442877 439880 439882 441882 445881 452880
      456881 457885 458888 458893 456900 456905 458906 462910
      463919 465922 469915 475906 479900 482898 482901 478913
      477917 477921 479929 486939 486944 487947 489946 492934
 0.01 461957 461955 459955 457957 459959 460959 461957
 0.01 414708 412705 410704 403706 396708 389711 381720 377726
      375733 374741 374749 374754 376757 377760 379762 382764
      386764 390762 391760 395755 398749 399741 403734 407721
      411716 414708 414708
 0.01 380047 380042 380038 379035 377033 375030 373029 370030
      368031 366034 365036 366039 367041 369044 371046 372048
      376048 378047 380047
 0.01 361700 360695 357693 352693 343695 339696 338698 329700
      326703 323707 319709 316709 314711 310713 307712 305716
      303723 303727 302730 301738 299745 294756 291763 290770
      289774 290778 291780 292784 293788 295792 297797 299801
      300806 301813 304811 304808 305801 311790 317777 324767
      331755 338745 351722 355717 357711 360704 361700
 0.01 312086 313080 313073 312065 309059 303055 299054 296052
      291045 289039 288033 288029 289018 287010 286999 287990
      291952 298917 303900 303894 302890 298884 295884 292881
      289873 290870 290865 288862 288857 289854 289848 292839
      290826 289822 283822 276821 270820 264824 263827 264831
      260837 259844 261846 265846 268844 270844 271847 271852
      269855 263867 259880 251895 247911 246918 247922 247926
      247932 245935 242941 237947 235949 235953 234965 235975
      236983 236992 236999 234002 233007 232016 232023 230033
      228040 226048 225057 232069 235071 240073 244078 246080
      250081 257079 263081 266083 269081 277083 282083 285082
      290083 297087 301090 307090 312086
 0.25 521023 521020 519018 518017 517017 517020 518022 519023
      520023 521023
 0.25 499232 499226 498221 497213 493211 490211 483211 477212
      470215 466219 466222 469221 476220 482226 486233 488235
      493236 498234 499232
 0.25 473885 472878 471870 470860 468856 467854 464861 462867
      464873 466878 466885 465895 465901 468900 469898 471890
      473885
 0.25 450225 451222 450221 448221 447221 446221 445222 443222
      442222 441223 439224 441226 442227 444228 445229 447228
      448227 449225 450225
 0.25 461832 458815 459798 458793 456791 452796 450804 447809
      445814 449817 453817 454820 456828 457837 454842 449846
      446852 443856 443860 446860 451856 455852 459847 459839
      461832
 0.25 429798 429795 429793 429790 428788 426788 426789 425791
      425793 424794 423796 422799 422801 424803 424805 426807
      426805 427803 428800 429798 429798
 0.25 307081 307075 306071 303068 301064 297063 293064 292069
      293073 295077 298080 301084 303085 307081 307081
 0.25 286062 285057 282055 276050 274046 272041 274032 276021
      277009 277987 278976 280966 285947 287936 290927 291921
      292915 290904 288899 283898 277904 272911 269919 259932
      253938 249945 247956 247968 248975 248981 245990 241998
      239007 237018 238027 239049 241054 244057 250061 259064
      264065 267067 275072 280072 284070 286062
 0.50 456796 456795 454796 454799 454801 455802 455801 456798
      456796 456796
 0.50 456847 456846 454846 453847 452848 451849 450850 451851
      453851 454850 454849 456847 456847
 0.50 302080 302078 302076 302075 300076 300077 300078 301080
      302080
 0.50 288922 288913 285907 282906 279908 275912 273919 270925
      263936 256948 252954 251962 253970 256975 256980 255984
      251988 243999 241007 241016 243031 244040 247046 249048
      252050 259049 265035 268029 271022 272012 272003 272993
      272983 272978 274974 276968 280953 284937 287930 288922
 1.00 283927 283919 282914 279916 277921 272930 270936 268939
      263947 259958 260963 263966 267968 270966 273961 274956
      277945 281934 283927
 1.00 263021 265011 264001 260995 256995 253996 247000 245008
      245016 248024 251030 254031 257029 261024 263021
 1.50 271952 271949 271947 270946 269947 268948 267949 266951
      266952 266954 266956 266958 268958 269956 270954 270953
      271952
 1.50 258017 259012 260008 259004 258002 255001 251001 249002
      248006 248010 249014 249016 251018 254020 257018 258017
 2.00 253010 254008 254006 253005 251005 250006 250008 251010
      252011 253010

$$




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