Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271843
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 28/0000 UTC THRU JUL 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

LOWER MS VALLEY---LOWER TN VALLEY---OH VALLEY---CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING DAY 1 THROUGH A
LARGE PORTION OF THE MS VALLEY.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NORTHEASTWARD PUSH OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES...1.5-2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/LOWER TN
VALLEY---THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND MID ATLANTIC.  UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS
AMPLIFYING TROF WILL ACCENTUATE LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS ACROSS
THESE AREAS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS---WITH THE USUAL SHORTER TERM QPF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES---BUT BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS DURING THE UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD.

NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

AN ACTIVE STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING MS VALLEY UPPER TROF---PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.
STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD SUPPORT
ACTIVE CONVECTION.  CONVECTION AHEAD OF THESE AREAS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIKELY WILL BE FAST MOVING---LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
TIMING ISSUES IN THE MODELS.  MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

UPPER MS VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE AMPLIFYING MS VALLEY UPPER
TROF WILL SUPPORT A SEPARATE NORTHERN PRECIP MAX DAY 1 FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THIS AREA.  THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD WITH QPF
DETAILS ACROSS THIS REGION THAN POINTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC---LEADING TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE HERE.  THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO-BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN
WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY HERE TO MITIGATE THESE DIFFERENCES WITH
AREAL AVERAGE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE.

NORTHERN NY STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY. A NARROW AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES..1.5"+...IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT---WITH MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS
POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN NY STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 538180 539175 538170 538162 538155 537150 536147 528137
      521125 517120 513116 502108 491099 484094 479089 470081
      463073 459067 459063 461060 463055 465053 470057 477067
      482073 484075 486073 491066 493061 493057 494051 493047
      491038 489030 487025 479018 468011 465006 461002 457996
      453993 450993 444996 436997 434999 430998 425996 409993
      415984 421975 424967 425961 437954 443950 445948 447950
      450946 456943 462939 466932 469930 470924 471915 471901
      470896 469893 466889 461876 455860 452853 450843 445824
      437818 431822 428829 425834 426838 425841 425844 423847
      420841 416835 414828 412808 411796 412784 411777 408770
      403752 401744 395740 386737 383736 380736 376739 366746
      363748 359749 356754 357761 360767 361771 361776 361786
      360795 359799 359805 357813 354821 352826 353834 351842
      349847 337869 335872 331874 324876 309877 294882 287895
      282897 279901 275904 273909 266936 264945 263948 262952
      258965 259970 261974 263976 266976 273974 277974 279972
      281970 283973 282976 282979 286979 288981 292984 297988
      295996 291002 286004 278005 271007 265008 260004 251994
      247989 242990 238993 234995 231999 230005 222072 226078
      231083 239090 245095 256106 268118 273123 280128 288133
      295129 302127 308123 308118 311114 318110 325108 328105
      330101 333098 334090 334084 332081 325076 321075 318073
      314070 310066 304061 298056 294054 290053 287053 286050
      286046 287043 292037 296031 303025 309019 313017 316014
      320009 324005 326001 326995 327992 330991 335984 338983
      341980 344973 352954 355939 356935 358931 361925
 0.01 361925 366918 371910 379900 387904 396904 399902 401902
      405905 408909 410915 412918 411922 410929 403949 402956
      399961 394970 388977 382983 378997 374007 371016 371023
      374026 383033 387036 392037 398038 401039 406041 409045
      414055 417059 421063 426064 431064 434067 437072 440084
      440093 441101 446106 449109 454111 461111 466115 469119
      471125 474134 477145 479150 484155 492161 498167 503169
      506172 515180 524185 527186 531184 538180
 0.01 519687 518672 515656 513648 510642 504636 497633 487633
      481636 476640 473643 471648 468648 464646 461645 458649
      452659 447669 439687 434698 430708 428712 427717 427724
      427730 428735 432738 431750 432756 432761 429772 427779
      428785 429792 428798 429803 432806 440808 443804 445797
      447785 451762 455751 462748 464745 478701 482693 484689
      489686 495687 499690 505697 509698 514696 518690 519687
 0.01 273828 274824 274820 269812 265809 264805 265802 257794
      252791 248791 245793 240796 235801 233806 233816 233822
      234832 238836 244838 247837 249835 251828 256829 259830
      264830 269831 273828
 0.25 525171 526169 525168 525166 524165 523163 521161 520160
      518159 517159 517158 515160 515161 516164 518166 518167
      519168 520170 521170 522171 523172 525171 525171
 0.25 465672 463661 461660 458663 454670 450677 447683 446693
      447698 449702 452702 455700 460694 463686 464678 465672
 0.25 458910 458903 456893 454886 450879 445875 443873 438874
      434878 428881 423880 419880 416882 413887 413898 416903
      420910 427921 431924 438927 444930 448929 451928 455923
      457920 458915 458910
 0.25 447041 444033 443029 440025 430013 424008 417004 408004
      401999 398991 397986 393986 389991 385999 384005 384011
      386016 388019 395021 402026 414036 425047 434049 443046
      446044 447041
 0.25 404794 403783 400776 398772 395766 394762 391760 385761
      381764 378767 378773 377787 373799 371811 368820 365831
      355852 350874 348879 344883 336889 329894 326898 323902
      321909 321913 320918 317924 316928 317935 320945 321952
      322960 324965 328964 332955 337945 343936 348926 362915
      374896 383879 393858 397848 398843 399837 399830 400820
      403809 404794
 0.25 225054 227064 229071 232075 249087 258092 268099 276104
      285112 289114 295113 297106 297099 295089 295084 292077
      286071 277063 270057 264047 258040 255035 253030 250026
      247022 242019 236018 231022 228029
 0.25 258815 255812 253809 251804 250800 246801 243805 241807
      240812 240815 242820 248819 252818 255818 258815
 0.50 456680 455679 454680 453681 452682 451684 451685 451686
      451688 453686 454684 455683 456682 456680
 0.50 452911 451899 450892 448889 443889 439891 432892 427892
      424894 421897 421901 422904 428909 434916 436920 440923
      443923 447922 449918 451913 452911
 0.50 428035 428021 426016 422013 411012 401006 399005 398001
      396994 390995 387001 386008 386012 388015 393017 397016
      400021 405025 414031 418034 422036 426036 428035
 0.50 401800 400789 395783 393778 390776 387776 385781 384789
      381798 373815 369829 365838 361846 358852 356856 356861
      357869 355874 352882 349888 344895 342895 339898 333903
      331910 329919 328925 328930 330939 334939 336937 340930
      345922 351917 357914 362909 364905 367900 372894 376887
      378879 382870 385861 387853 389844 392835 395826 399814
      400805 401800
 0.50 284093 285088 284083 280075 267064 262058 258050 254044
      248036 243031 239029 235029 231036 227045 227054 230063
      234069 241076 246080 253085 261090 269093 277097 282097
      284093
 1.00 397798 394789 390786 387791 387803 385808 382811 377820
      373830 369838 365849 362858 361872 365892 369891 371887
      375878 378868 381857 384845 387834 390824 394814 396807
      397798
 1.00 276081 274077 270075 266072 262068 255061 249054 243048
      239045 234047 232051 233059 238066 245073 254078 262082
      268084 272085 275083 276081
 1.50 384836 385830 382825 378830 373838 369847 367856 366866
      366874 368879 372877 374874 376868 378859 379853 381848
      383838 384836
 1.50 262076 261074 260071 258069 256067 253065 251065 249066
      248068 250071 251073 254075 256076 259077 262076
 2.00 375860 375857 375855 374853 374852 373851 372850 372851
      374853 373855 372856 372858 371860 371861 370862 370864
      370867 371868 373867 373866 374864 374862 375860 375860

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