Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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816
FXUS04 KWBC 120700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 12/1200 UTC THRU FEB 13/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWEST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS PERIOD INTO STOUT UPPER
RIDGING...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING ERN WASHINGTON/OREGON BY
12Z/13. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM THEIR CURRENT VALUES OF
1.0 TO 1.1 INCHES ALONG THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COASTS TO NEAR 0.5
INCHES BY 12Z/13. SWLY TO WSWLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20-30 KT RANGE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...FAVORING THE WASHINGTON
COASTAL RANGES/CASCADES BEST WITH SECONDARY MAXIMA ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES/BITTERROOT RANGES. THE LATEST MODELS SHOWED VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP...AND ONLY MINOR QPF
DIFFERENCES. WPC FOLLOWED AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM...00Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR QPF.

...TN VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST...

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATER
TODAY AND INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
LOW WILL ENHANCE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE BEST WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
ERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 12-00Z. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A WINTRY MIX.  REFER TO THE WPC
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
SCATTER LOW PLOTS SUGGESTED THE 00Z NAM TO BE TOO FAR WEST WITH
ITS LOW...AND TOO HEAVY WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA.
DIFFERENCES IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS WERE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE 00Z ARW NOTABLY DRIER THAN THE 00Z NMMB. WPC
FOLLOWED A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH HERE...ATTEMPTING TO FOLLOW
CONVERGING TRENDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET.

FARTHER NORTH UP THE EAST COAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING WEST OF THE LOW WILL TIE INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
WEAKENING ACROSS SRN QUEBEC. BY THE END OF THE DAY 1
PERIOD...06-12Z SATURDAY...LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850-500 MB WILL BE
BETWEEN 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM...ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS...WHICH MAY
HELP TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CNTRL MAINE
COAST. WHILE HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWED 0.50+
INCHES...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LIMITED GIVEN THE
MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE EVENT AND NOT THE GREATEST SUPPORT FORM
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE.

...GREAT LAKES...

DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING
A CLOSED LOW TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY AT 12Z/12 TO SWRN QUEBEC BY
12Z/13. IN CONNECTION WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE LAKES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INITIALLY BACKING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY BRISK NWLY FLOW BY 06-12Z SAT IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

PREDOMINATELY NWLY FLOW ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN THROUGH FRI
NIGHT WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ERN MICHIGAN U.P. AND
LOCATIONS NEAR THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. FARTHER
EAST...MAXIMUM QPF SHOULD BE LOCATED EAST TO NORTHEAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH WPC QPF FOLLOWING NEAR A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NMMB/ARW GIVEN THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION AND ABILITY TO CAPTURE
DETAILS.  SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON SNOWFALL.


OTTO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 534223 537205 537188 535182 530177 522166 515157 509151
      506147 505142 507140 511128 513123 515128 519141 522147
      529149 531149 533146 536146 538149 540151 542146 545131
      546122 545116 545106 542100 539095 539090 541087 543084
      543075 536064 531060 528055 515043 507034 503032 499028
      488022 479017 469011 459002 444992 435987 426982 422980
      420980 417980 417984 417992 419996 424001 428004 436015
      439019 442022 444024 446024 448027 448031 450035 455039
      459040 463043 472053 475057 476062 474064 466074 465076
      463079 461079 457074 452066 443069 441074 443077 450085
      455090 456092 456097 451095 448097 448102 449105 450109
      453111 456110 458109 461111 465120 468123 467128 464132
      461137 458142 456150 454152 451152 447150 444151 443155
      443159 447163 449161 451165 449174 446182 443185 443191
      443198 444203 446204 448207 447211 446213 438216 428221
      423222 425225 422229 419233 414234 408236 404241 402247
      398251 397254 398257 401259 407258 413260 423259 431261
      436261 447263 447271 450278 456289 472300 478303 482302
      491298 502295 507305
 0.01 530237 530235 530232 530229 529231 528234 528236 529239
      530237
 0.01 498141 499133 498128 498120 496115 493107 491101 489096
      487093 485091 482092 476091 479102 481115 480120 482125
      488132 494140 496143 498141
 0.01 492731 492724 490720 489714 489708 487697 486692 484688
      482677 474679 471680 468679 460676 451674 446671 445667
      447663 450658 452654 451651 450648 448647 440649 437649
      434645 429648 422650 418652 416655 409659 404664 393674
      389678 386680 384679 379679 371681 365683 359686 348692
      334700 323708 318713 315720 311736 304760 300772 299777
      298785 301794 305798 310801 312803 313808 314814 315820
      318821 321819 325818 326816 326812 328809 327805 330799
      333795 335789 338787 340788 342792 343795 346797 349791
      351785 358781 366775 370773 374766 376762 378760 380762
      382762 383764 385763 386763 386762 384762 382760 380759
      378757 379755 382753 389752 393757 395757 397761 392765
      390767 389771 389774 390777 391778 393777 394776 396775
      398776 397779 395780 385790 379794 373801 368806 365803
      365798 364791 360792 359794 356803 350815 347822 347831
      349853 356864 361868 364867 366864 369855 372847 372840
      375833 380834 382830 385822 387820 391821 399827 407831
      414831 420833 424832 427834 423841 419844 414844 409849
      408852 404854 402855 403858 408862 416872 421874 427875
      431877 439876 443875 446873 454872 457874 459878 460887
      462909 467915 470913 471910 473902 475895 480887 483879
      484871 483863 480857 475850 470845 465842 461837 459832
      458827 458815 460811 462807 467801 479780 485755 487753
      490752 489741 492731
 0.01 486151 484149 483148 481150 482151 484152 486151
 0.01 480183 479172 476171 474174 468177 464184 460189 456196
      454200 455204 461205 465204 468200 470199 474191 479185
      480183
 0.01 456700 451698 446698 439700 436703 429705 425704 419712
      417717 413721 411727 413732 417733 420733 423727 426724
      430723 434722 438719 441713 444710 452703 455702 456700
 0.01 424739 422735 419735 414737 408738 405737 400739 401746
      399751 400755 402757 405757 407754 410751 411749 415745
      420744 423742 424739
 0.25 531208 533202 532197 530189 523177 519170 517169 516171
      511169 507164 504162 500162 495163 489165 487167 489170
      490173 491178 492184 494189 496192 500192 505189 512190
      515192 517195 519201 523208 526211 529211 531208
 0.25 519274 520263 519254 516249 515242 510227 506221 504216
      501210 498203 487202 476206 468212 447220 444221 445225
      452224 455228 456231 455233 450237 447240 447243 450247
      456249 462249 467250 470252 476255 481259 488271 494280
      498287 502288 504287 507285 510278 516273 519274
 0.25 492237 491235 489231 487229 484228 481226 479223 477222
      476224 474226 472229 475229 476229 480229 481232 482236
      486237 489238 492237
 0.25 487139 486137 484136 484135 482135 481134 479134 477133
      476133 474134 474136 475138 477139 479139 480140 482140
      484140 485140 487139
 0.25 473156 472153 471150 469149 468150 467150 466151 464151
      464152 463154 462156 463159 465160 466160 467159 468158
      470158 472157 473156
 0.25 473865 472863 470860 468857 467853 465853 463855 461856
      461861 460866 462870 464872 467873 471871 472868 473865
 0.25 448685 447682 443681 439686 433689 429689 423689 420690
      421694 424696 430696 435696 438692 444689 448685
 0.25 445751 445748 443747 441748 440750 438753 437756 436761
      436763 436767 438769 440767 441764 443760 444757 445754
      445751
 0.25 453857 453855 451853 450853 449853 448853 446853 444855
      444856 445857 445858 446859 448860 450860 452859 453857
 0.25 446817 446814 445812 443810 442811 440812 438812 437813
      436813 435815 433816 432817 431819 432820 434820 435820
      437820 439821 441822 442821 444820 445819 446817 446817
 0.25 430788 430784 427783 426785 424787 422789 421792 420795
      418799 418802 419805 420803 423801 425799 427796 428793
      429790 430788
 0.25 430862 429861 428860 427859 426858 424858 422858 420858
      419859 418860 419863 421865 422865 424866 426866 428865
      429864 429863 430862
 0.25 384701 377697 367701 361699 355702 351705 346704 342705
      340707 335712 330720 322730 316739 312751 310764 311771
      312779 315784 320786 336769 339768 342768 347770 358765
      364755 368752 370747 370738 373732 376721 378714 382709
      384701
 0.50 517265 518260 517257 515251 513247 512241 510235 508233
      510241 506230 504226 503220 497209 493207 490206 484207
      480208 476210 472213 463217 460220 458224 462226 466224
      474222 479220 483224 490229 496241 501249 505255 507260
      508266 511270 515269 517265
 0.50 504276 504267 501262 496250 492244 489240 483240 481236
      479233 476232 471233 468238 463240 461240 463242 469244
      474249 480250 485255 488259 494272 497277 502278 504276
 0.50 508182 509177 509172 508169 506167 504166 503166 501168
      499170 497172 497174 498178 501181 502183 504184 506184
      508182
 0.50 459242 457241 456241 455241 456242 457242 459242
 0.50 441760 442757 442754 440755 439757 438758 438760 438762
      439763 440762 441760 441760
 0.50 346712 344709 341709 337714 330726 325732 320737 317744
      314751 313764 315775 317778 319778 328768 331760 333753
      336745 338740 341737 343733 345726 345717 346712
 1.00 512255 511249 509246 505242 505237 500228 497218 493210
      486213 480213 481216 488223 491225 493230 497238 500243
      503245 508253 511257 512255
 1.00 492253 492252 492250 491248 490247 490246 488244 486244
      485246 485248 486249 487251 488252 489252 490254 492255
      492253
 1.00 479238 479237 478236 477235 476235 475235 475237 475239
      476240 477241 478241 479238
 1.00 330744 328742 326745 324749 322753 318757 317761 318765
      321766 324762 326759 327755 329750 330744 330744
 1.50 496228 497226 497223 496222 495221 494222 494225 495228
      496228
 1.50 492217 493214 492213 491213 489213 487215 487217 486218
      487218 488220 490219 492218 492217

$$





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