Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211842
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 22/0000 UTC THRU AUG 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL U.S. / GREAT LAKES...

FAIRLY ENERGETIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUCKLE...PRODUCING A TROUGH IN
THE PLAINS / MIDWEST...WITH NOTEWORTHY HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH
TONIGHT. ONE WELL FORMED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS TRACKING ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA...WHILE A
SEPARATE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
KS/MO...WHERE A SEPARATE PLAINS LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM / CONFLUENT
ZONE WILL FORM THIS EVENING. FARTHER NORTH A SIMILAR INFLOW
STRUCTURE SHOULD FORM OVER WISCONSIN...WITH A LOCAL INSTABILITY
MAXIMUM REMOVED FROM THE RAIN-COOLED AIR IN IOWA. ACCOUNTING FOR
THE SETUP...WE TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z WRF-ARW...12Z NSSL WRF...AND
THE LATEST BIAS-CORRECTED GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE. WE HELD ONTO 30
PERCENT CONTINUITY...AND THE BLEND ACTUALLY RESULTED IN FAIRLY
MINIMAL OVERALL CHANGE. THIS APPROACH DID BOOST AMOUNTS IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...IN LINE WITH SOME RECENT
HRRR RUNS.


...NORTHEAST / OHIO VALLEY...

AS THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH TAKES SHAPE IT WILL PROGRESS IN CLASSIC
LATE SUMMER / EARLY FALL FASHION...WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE FORMING
AND LIFTING UP THROUGH CANADA...AND A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT
STRETCHED DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY  AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
/ SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG FORCING SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH PRECIPITATION...WHILE
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE A BIT MORE PREDICTABLE IN PARTS OF
KS/MO TONIGHT...AND ALSO PERHAPS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST ARE A BIT REMOVED FROM THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...AND THEREFORE MAY NOT SEE QUITE THE LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION.


...WESTERN U.S...

MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN
SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND A
CONTINENTAL FRONT BACKING UP INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES. AREAL
AVERAGE QPF IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...THOUGH A FEW HEAVIER...SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT PARTS OF CO/NM AND SOUTHWEST TX.


...SOUTHEAST...

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS AND PARTS OF
FLORIDA. AN EASTERLY PLUME OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL
STRETCH OUT FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...WHILE
MOISTURE INCREASES ALSO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.
WPC BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH UPDATED VERSIONS OF THE
WRF-ARW AND NSSL WRF AND OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE...RESULTING IN A
FEW POCKETS OF AREAL AVERAGE HALF INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. LOCAL HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

BURKE/HURLEY


24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 514864 513856 512851 509838 503829 501819 502806 502801
      504795 503785 502778 501774 498757 497752 496745 495737
      496731 496717 498691 498680 497677 495673 490665 484656
      481654 479658 476656 475651 458657 449670 428699 422708
      416715 406729 403728 402725 398725 392733 388740 384750
      382758 378765 375772 374778 376782 380782 385780 391775
      397773 401774 405776 403782 398790 392797 384810 379818
      376828 370847 366864 364874 362883 358892 355903 349923
      346933 344943 340963 337971 334984 331995 326001 315013
      306022 299027 294034 290032 285032 281034 280039 284046
      282050 276050 268051 259051 250052 247065 248068 251072
      257078 259080 264082 269088 274092 280096 285096 289093
      293093 298094 305100 311107 318110 322109 326111 330105
      334102 337104 342113 347114 348110 345106 345101 345098
      344093 340074 344069 349069 352071 357072 360077 366081
      373089 374095 372098 375101 378100 384093 390088 389083
      389080 390077 392074 396071 404067 408065 411061 411055
      409052 406050 405044 401037 391027 387026 386029 386036
      384038 378038 373036 371026 370019 369014 376018 383014
      388009 394003 397999 401997 407004 409008 413009 418008
      420006 424000 432984 439967 448947 452940 458931 464926
      469918 474912 482905 484906 484909 483915 480925 477946
      477953 477960 481960 483958 489950 491946 493942 498933
      502922 504913 505908 506900 511879 514864
 0.01 418225 419221 418218 415216 413218 412221 411226 409227
      406229 405231 405235 407234 411234 414233 415232 417227
      418225
 0.01 410209 411203 409201 408198 409196 410192 411186 410183
      407177 402176 400173 393174 387178 386175 387172 387166
      385163 382162 378162 376166 374175 369180 361179 359181
      361184 372194 378208 382210 386210 389208 393210 396213
      399214 403214 407213 410209
 0.01 410115 411108 409105 410101 409094 406093 404099 403106
      399110 393109 387109 384111 379113 376116 371118 367117
      354115 352115 352119 354122 356128 355135 352136 349136
      346138 349141 353144 359154 361158 366161 367158 366155
      363152 361146 362141 368138 372137 375138 381138 385136
      387132 391128 394124 398120 402119 407118 410115
 0.01 368210 368209 366208 365207 365206 363205 361205 359205
      359206 360208 361209 362210 364211 366212 368211 368210
 0.01 366813 366809 364809 358814 354819 349825 347828 346833
      346842 347844 350844 355838 359832 362825 365818 366813
 0.01 356748 356743 355738 349735 343737 339741 335745 332750
      328766 324781 319792 314797 311803 302811 297816 294822
      289826 287831 287835 284839 286844 289849 290853 289858
      287864 284871 282877 280881 274895 274903 274908 276910
      278918 280926 281942 282950 282955 281958 283964 288967
      292967 294964 298959 301954 304948 309937 311928 314922
      318906 322894 326878 328871 328863 336852 341840 339838
      336839 333839 332842 329848 327855 325857 323859 321857
      317852 315845 316839 319832 322827 328823 332818 341793
      349781 355770 356748
 0.01 289806 289799 288794 284787 281779 275774 273772 268772
      262776 252788 242800 238806 236810 236814 235818 236821
      239824 243824 245823 246828 247833 249835 253836 257836
      261835 264832 269827 274822 282817 286812 289806
 0.25 484700 485696 483693 482687 479683 476685 469689 465695
      460704 456712 452721 448727 445730 441730 438725 434723
      432726 430730 427737 425742 422746 422753 421764 418772
      414782 409789 401802 397810 392818 387836 383846 380855
      376862 374870 374885 371894 364909 360917 357926 352943
      347964 348971 350974 354976 357973 360972 367971 370973
      371977 374987 378993 380997 382000 386999 390996 395990
      400982 404974 410968 414968 414972 415982 418985 421983
      424977 429967 432957 436946 439937 443929 447923 460912
      465905 469898 476879 479872 484864 487854 488842 487829
      487823 488818 490807 491794 490781 488769 484757 481746
      480739 480732 481721 481715 482709 484700
 0.25 419830 419827 418828 417829 416830 415831 415833 414835
      416836 417835 418832 419831 419830
 0.25 398055 396050 393048 390045 385043 378047 375050 377053
      382056 384058 382061 378064 374064 369066 373071 377080
      381078 383072 386063 393059 398055
 0.25 344752 344750 343750 341749 340750 338751 338752 337753
      337755 336756 337758 338760 339760 340760 341759 342757
      343755 344754 344752
 0.25 352998 353996 353993 353991 352989 351988 350987 348989
      348990 347991 346993 346994 345995 344998 344999 344000
      343002 343004 344006 345006 347005 348004 349003 350002
      351000 351999 352998
 0.25 335791 335788 332789 329794 325799 322803 318807 315811
      314815 316819 320819 323814 326809 329804 331798 334793
      335791
 0.25 309882 309872 306865 303861 299864 293876 289889 285894
      284902 284909 286917 289923 294929 295931 297931 297922
      296910 296905 297901 302897 307886 309882
 0.25 295079 294075 293071 292065 289062 284061 281062 275063
      270061 262064 259065 259067 262071 264074 268077 275081
      280088 286087 294081 295079
 0.25 275801 274796 271794 265790 260792 255797 250802 248804
      249806 253808 255811 257818 261817 263815 269810 274805
      275801
 0.50 486791 486783 485776 481766 478757 475743 476729 476718
      476707 473703 467704 464707 461712 458722 453740 452745
      449747 446747 440742 437740 433740 430741 428745 429753
      430760 435768 436771 434773 431774 425779 418786 414794
      413800 415804 419805 424804 427802 432802 434805 433807
      431812 430823 430835 420851 416860 414865 414871 414877
      413885 411891 409894 405894 401893 397893 395890 393885
      394881 396870 398864 398858 394857 391860 388884 384890
      379898 374905 371910 369915 361930 357941 354952 354957
      354960 357960 359958 364949 366949 367952 370956 374963
      377973 378979 380985 384987 389986 391984 394979 398973
      402964 407956 410953 415954 418958 423958 425954 426946
      428935 430925 432921 436921 440922 443918 447916 450911
      453902 460901 463898 465893 469883 471875 476866 480859
      483849 483841 482835 481819 481814 482810 484805 486791
 0.50 447773 447770 445770 444771 444772 442774 443776 444777
      446776 447773 447773
 0.50 391052 391050 390049 389047 388047 387046 385047 384049
      385051 385052 386053 388053 390053 391052
 0.50 303884 303882 303880 302878 302876 301875 299876 299878
      298880 298881 298882 298884 299886 300887 302886 303884
 0.50 282078 282074 282072 280069 277069 276069 273067 271066
      270069 271071 273073 275075 278077 279079 282078
 0.50 266800 265798 264798 262798 261799 259800 257801 256803
      255803 256805 256806 256807 258809 260809 262808 263807
      263806 264804 265802 266800
 1.00 473798 472791 472781 470776 468784 466792 465799 471801
      467806 464810 463814 464817 468817 469813 469806 472804
      473800 473798
 1.00 446894 446893 444892 443892 441892 440894 439897 439899
      439902 439904 440904 441906 443905 445904 446901 446899
      446896 446894
 1.00 407926 407922 405920 401915 396913 392914 391916 388922
      386918 382927 381932 382934 384938 383943 382949 382956
      383965 384974 384977 387978 391972 396962 402950 406938
      406930 407926
 1.50 402936 400928 394923 390929 388938 387947 386956 386965
      388968 391967 395960 398952 400945 402936
 2.00 398945 399938 397933 396932 394933 391938 390943 389947
      388954 388961 390963 393960 395956 396951 398945 398945

$$




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