000
FXUS04 KWBC 161758
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 17/0000 UTC THRU JUN 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

STILL LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING..WITH THE LATEST MODELS RUNS AGAIN FORECASTING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO ROLL OUT OF THE KS HIGH PLAINS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OK AND WESTERN AR.  THE H5 S/WV WHICH
SHOULD AID IN THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL CO AND WILL TAP INTO A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET..WITH THE S/WV GENERALLY DROPPING A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST THRU
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTS EASTWARD ALSO WHILE WEAKENING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES AS
TO WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS..THERE CONTINUES TO BE MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MESO-SCALE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION..SO CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST
RATHER HIGH ON THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THE 12Z RUNS
HAVE COME IN A LITTLE FARTHER WEST WITH THE RAINFALL MAX OVER
KS/OK THAN DID LAST NIGHTS 00Z ECMWF HIRES..SO STAYED WITH THIS
SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT..WITH AN AXIS OF AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OK..WITH LESSER TOTALS EVENTUALLY SPILLING INTO AR VERY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.  FARTHER EAST..THE FORECAST OF WEAK H5
S/WVS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EGDE OF THE WESTERLIES AND THEIR
INTERACTION WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THRU THE TN
VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES..WITH MANUAL QPF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z NCEP
AND 00Z ECMWF HIRES MODEL SOLUTIONS..ALL OF WHICH HAD A RATHER
LARGE SWATH OF GREATER THAN 0.50 INCH RAINS FROM THE TN VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.


...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...

NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF STRUNG OUT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR SETTLING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD..WHICH SHOULD FOCUS A GENERALLY WEST-EAST BAND OF
RAIN.  HOWEVER..MOISTURE/PWS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AS THE MUCH
DEEPER MOISTURE IS TIED UP IN THE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITH THE H5
S/WVS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH..SO EXPECT MOST OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
NORTHEN STREAM SYSTEM TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE..WITH ONLY SCATTERED
AREAS GREATER THAN 0.25 INCH.


ELSEWHERE..EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAINS IN THE PAC NW AS THE VORTEX
SHOULD STILL REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
STILL REMAINS SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST..WHILE SOME LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE RAINS PROBABLE OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER
LATER MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON ROUND OF CONVECTION MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 479650 478645 476642 471641 463645 458646 455647 449649
      438652 435654 432656 429655 422662 420666 418669 412674
      408680 402686 400690 396695 389707 386712 383713 382708
      380706 376706 373708 370712 369715 367725 366741 366748
      362751 358751 356754 348759 332778 326785 322790 316793
      310795 304797 298799 293798 289799 284799 279799 273800
      269801 263803 260806 257808 257811 258818 257824 259828
      261830 265830 271830 279829 290837 298846 295858 295870
      296878 301883 307888 315894 320901 322907 324916 326931
      326935 325937 324945 322955 323971 323976 322979 323987
      324005 321012 318017 312022 308027 301030 296034 287043
      274060 263060 258059 252058 250059 249061 252066 256074
      258078 261081 275083 277084 284083 290080 295075 302066
      310060 319055 322053 326053 335053 341055 349056 357058
      361059 364062 375068 388069 395069 399066 404068 407068
      418068 420067 422066 423068 428070 431075 432080 428083
      424088 427092 429093 434097 439098 441101 446108 449114
      455114 459109 463108 467110 471110 473107 473102 472099
      471093 470089 467089 464093 461096 457094 456084 453080
      452071 450063 448053 447042 445037 444035 441035 435035
      428034 419030 415029 413026 415023 419020 425017 430013
      434009 434003 433000 431997 430992 425987 421982 417975
      410961 406954 405951 405947 404937 403926 400918 399913
      400910 399898 396887 393869 391853 390844 392838 396828
      397817 398810 400804 399798 396794 393785 391780 391776
      391769 392762 397749 404721 407715 412709 413706 416702
      423697 428694 432695 436697 437703 435712 433715 432720
      430725 426730 427731 429732 428735 427742 424753 424767
      423779 424785 423791 424800 424809 423815 423823 423840
      428864 429873 428881 429887 429892 426897 420911 420915
      418919 420927 426926 431920 434913 437912 440914 441918
      441922 439930 437947 433973 434981 436986 438987 442982
      446970 450953 453938 456938 457942 460947 461950 467965
      471969 475974 481980 484981 487984 491984 494987 498994
      503999 506995 508985 509975 508964 506952 505943 502939
      502933 500924 498920 495910 493904 487891 481881 470846
      467838 466828 466821 465810 463791 463774 463764 466755
      471736 473729 477722 480717 481712 484707 484702 485691
      484683 481676 479650
 0.01 536206 536200 536190 535184 533175 530171 528164 525157
      520151 517145 515143 509140 503139 500138 498135 495130
      492126 484124 475127 474133 474141 484142 487147 487151
      485154 482154 481156 479164 479182 483186 485191 484201
      479204 471206 463213 459216 453217 448220 442219 436225
      444228 448227 453230 450234 445236 436239 430239 427241
      420241 417245 423246 426245 447247 455249 462253 468257
      472260 491274 498278 502282 507281 511277 513275 514270
      516267 516262 517253 517242 516233 514227 518230 523233
      527233 531227 536206
 0.01 497245 497241 496240 494236 493235 491232 490229 489227
      486226 483225 481223 478222 475222 473224 474226 477226
      480227 481231 482233 485236 488237 488238 490240 491243
      492245 495246 497245
 0.25 473661 471658 468656 465659 460668 454680 457688 460700
      465698 470685 473674 474665 473661
 0.25 525207 525203 525201 524197 523193 522192 520189 517189
      514189 513190 512194 513197 515199 516201 519204 519206
      521210 524209 525207
 0.25 504234 503230 503229 501225 501223 499220 496219 495222
      495225 496227 497231 498232 500234 503237 504234
 0.25 457844 455840 454838 452837 451836 448838 448839 447844
      448848 450851 451852 454851 456848 456847 457844
 0.25 445797 446792 442791 441795 441796 439800 439801 439805
      440808 441810 443807 443806 444802 445799 445797
 0.25 453892 453888 452885 451885 448882 445883 444887 444891
      445895 448899 451898 451897 453893 453892
 0.25 388746 387741 384738 381740 379743 376750 373758 372766
      372774 372782 375785 378783 381777 383771 384763 386755
      387746 388746
 0.25 393803 391798 388797 382800 377803 371802 364802 365792
      365784 362781 359780 355782 352784 347788 336797 323807
      316812 312813 309813 299808 293807 288806 283806 278808
      274812 272815 273820 279821 292821 304822 309824 311827
      313831 314852 316860 318865 328871 332879 333883 332888
      332895 331905 332913 333922 336941 337963 338972 339980
      342983 346985 351988 355991 360996 368011 372016 380019
      388018 394016 400013 402011 404006 396988 394977 391968
      388961 384955 381950 380945 380939 380930 379917 376909
      370903 368900 367896 367890 367873 366853 366843 368834
      373827 377824 382821 386817 389812 393803
 0.50 388805 387804 385806 384807 385808 388805 388805
 0.50 397005 397001 396998 394995 392990 389983 386974 381963
      377953 375949 375942 374935 372929 370924 366922 356922
      352920 346920 343919 340921 339927 340935 343947 342959
      342965 343971 345975 350978 356982 363990 373007 376009
      379010 384011 391011 396008 397005
 0.50 359855 359849 357844 353833 349828 347820 346814 344812
      341809 335812 332819 332823 332830 335849 338860 338870
      338880 340888 342897 344904 347908 350908 354900 357881
      358873 359862 359855
 1.00 385995 385988 383980 379971 375964 370951 368948 361948
      356949 352953 350957 349964 353970 359977 363983 369992
      374000 377003 380003 383999 385995
 1.00 351865 350862 349862 349866 350869 351865
 1.50 381992 382987 380981 376974 373968 369961 365957 362957
      358960 356961 355964 356967 360973 364980 368985 372991
      375996 381994 381992
 2.00 379988 378985 377982 374982 371986 373989 375991 377990
      379988

$$