Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260639
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 26/1200 UTC THRU JUL 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...CNTL ROCKIES EASTWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST AND GT
LAKES REGION...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY THIS PD AS
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWS POOL AHEAD OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOCD
S/WV TROF MOVING EWD FROM THE CNTL PLAINS REGION.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PD AS COMPLEX OF
STORMS MOVE EWD FROM NEB/SD INTO IA ALONG NOSE OF 40 KTS SWLY
JET..WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SPREAD EWD ALONG ASSOCD COLD FRONT
MOVING ACRS THE GT LAKES REGION MORE TIED TO STGR MID/UPR TROF
MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AN AXIS OF GREATER
THAN 2.25 INCH PWS...2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL..
WILL BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE CONFLUENT SW TO WLY 85H FLOW AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT AND ASSOCD LOW FROM SRN IA SWWD INTO NE KS
WHERE EXPECT STORMS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MLCAPES AND STG MSTR FLUX.  RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
BECOME QUITE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTN AND CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACRS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO CNTL IL/IN BY THUR MRNG WITH A PD
OF INTENSE SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH POTNL TRAINING EXPECTED AS
STORMS TRACK GENLY EWD WITH A SLOW SEWD OVERALL COMPONENT WED
NIGHT.  THE TREND OF MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED A
SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS.  MODEST POSITIONAL
SPREAD REMAINS WITH THE 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE WITH THE DIFFERENCES
TIED TO THE INTENSITY OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND WHERE
THE BETTER AFTN CONVERGENCE WILL TEND TO SET UP BEHIND THE INITIAL
CONVECTION.  AT THIS TIME..THOUGHT THE NSSL WRF WAS A GOOD
COMPROMISE SOLN WHICH HELPED MAINTAIN SOME LEVEL OF CONTINUITY
THOUGH SUPPORTED THE GENL SOUTHWARD TREND OF THE MODELS.  IN
ADDITION THE UNSEASONABLY HI PWS AOA 2.25"...THIS WOULD GENLY
SUPPORT SATURATION SOUTHWARD TOWARD HIER THICKNESSES.  WITH
TROPICAL LIKE MSTR...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAIN RATES OVER 3 INCHES WITH SOME STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF OVER 5 INCHES EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING
WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY MIDWEST
REGION.  FARTHER TO THE WEST...OF EQUAL CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF CO SEWD INTO THE ADJACENT HI PLAINS..WHERE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN A REGION OF
WEAK FLOW NEAR THE CREST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS..COULD LEAD TO
SOME VERY HEAVY SLOW MOVING STORMS LATER WED/WED NIGHT. HI RES
GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT HERE SHOWING POTNL FOR 1 TO
2" AREAL AVG RAINS BOTH TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND BUILDING/DVLPG
SEWD ALONG AXIS OF MODEST CAPES EXPECTED NORTH OF THE SFC BNDRY.

...SOUTHEAST...

A WEAK CIRCULATION ALONG THE SC/GA COAST EMBDD WITHIN WEAK
STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ACRS THE SE COAST AREA OVER
THE DAY 1 PD.  WITH AIRMASS HERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY
MOIST..WITH PWS AOA 2"..THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME VERY
SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.  AREAL AVG RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE PSBL GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...AND
ISOLD/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE PSBL IN SOME OF
THE SLOWER MORE PERSISTENT CELLS HERE. LEANED CLOSER TO A
CONSENSUS OF HI RES GUIDANCE.


...SOUTHWEST INTO GREAT BASIN...

THE UPPER TROF WHICH HAD HUNG UP ALONG THE NRN CA COAST OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE ACRS
NRN CA/OREGON REGION IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WLYS DIPPING SWD
WITH WEAK AND DRY S/WV THAT IS FCST TO PUSH TOWARD THE PAC NW/SW
CANADA BY THUR MORNING.  OVERALL..SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDS ARE
EXPECTED ACRS THE SW NWD INTO THE GT BASIN AS MONSOON FLOW RELAXES
A BIT.  HOWEVER..MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR PRIMARILY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING ACRS THIS
REGION..ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE GT BASIN WITH SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED JET SUPPORT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE. AMOUNTS HOWEVER SHOULD BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 525722 523710 519702 515694 513689 509689 505688 500689
      493695 491697 489696 486694 485689 486684 484677 481675
      477674 473675 471677 468678 464680 452683 439699 436703
      435710 433725 431731 429741 429751 431767 432780 432787
      431792 429805 427814 424824 420829 417832 410836 404841
      395848 391852 387857 384862 381862 379860 376856 376850
      372851 370853 363853 361853 360850 359843 359837 361832
      364810 361808 355808 353808 349805 345796 341786 341773
      341766 343761 347750 348744 348736 346731 343728 333731
      325733 322735 320738 315746 312754 309763 305772 299779
      292782 285786 274791 257797 249803 246807 245812 243818
      245823 249827 254828 261829 269833 275836 278840 281844
      283847 284853 285867 289885 293895 296906 301912 302909
      304903 305898 308894 317887 322883 327881 338882 345884
      354884 358885 362886 371890 379893 380899 380904 376924
      369946 362963 353987 347013 346021 345027 344031 342035
      339038 333043 329046 326046 316043 311043 308044 304044
      304047 310054 313056 319058 326064 329067 330073 332085
      334091 337097 340100 343100 344094 342088 336073 334064
      335059 339057 343059 347060 357064 365068 370070 372072
      375083 383085 385099 387098 388096 391097 393103 394107
      392108 383113 374118 365121 360120 358118 353112 349110
      344109 337108 341118 348123 357127 362132 367140 370140
      372139 372142 359155 361160 368161 377165 383169 387174
      387175 390176 394175 400173 403171 408172 411174 413179
      414183 413191 408201 405204 401202 398201 397206 400209
      404210 410212 413216 414223 412228 410233 413234 419235
      425227 428224 432223 439220 441217 442213 439208 438203
      435198 432190 431184 431178
 0.01 431178 430171 430165 430160 435155 441154 448151 452147
      456143 457140 461131 461123 460120 460116 466112 470108
      470103 468099 465093 455078 448068 444064 438067 433072
      432076 431081 426087 426092 427096 429099 427100 425101
      421106 420111 417112 413111 413107 412102 410096 407095
      405098 402105 399104 397099 394095 393093 395092 397091
      406082 418075 425077 430070 433064 435056 437047 438044
      437041 436019 436006 437000 438995 439974 443957 445948
      448938 454923 462891 464883 465878 466874 469865 472863
      475858 478853 483848 486842 490837 494830 499824 502816
      507808 516798 519793 520784 522774 522768 522764 525760
      525754 525741 524730 525722
 0.01 432135 432133 432130 433128 433126 432123 430125 430128
      430130 430132 430135 431137 432135
 0.01 413045 413043 412040 410042 410045 411046 413045
 0.01 402134 402131 400130 396129 395125 393124 389126 385129
      382131 381135 385136 388139 390141 393140 397138 400136
      402134
 0.01 399763 399759 397756 395756 393758 388756 386754 387751
      385749 382751 378752 374756 373758 373763 376769 382768
      387767 392766 397764 399763
 0.01 402014 402002 401993 400988 396987 391993 388999 385006
      383010 383015 386021 390027 394033 398033 400028 400016
      402014
 0.01 343851 342849 341847 340847 338849 339852 340853 342853
      343851
 0.01 325102 324098 322095 317086 312079 307070 302069 299067
      292060 289057 283055 272054 261053 257053 254059 253063
      252069 253074 254079 258086 265093 274097 278098 282103
      284106 287109 294109 299108 304108 308107 309110 308114
      308117 310118 313116 315112 323104 325102
 0.01 303958 303954 301951 299949 295949 291956 288962 283968
      279972 275978 275982 279983 285981 290977 295972 300966
      303958 303958
 0.01 279032 279026 274021 269019 263018 258016 252018 254021
      257025 262029 266032 273033 279032
 0.01 254947 254945 254943 252943 251945 251947 252948 254948
      254947
 0.01 240791 240789 240787 240785 240783 239782 238781 237780
      235781 233781 233782 232784 232786 231786 231788 232790
      233792 234793 236793 238793 240791 240791
 0.01 243998 243996 242995 241994 240993 238993 237995 236995
      237996 238997 238998 240998 242998 243998
 0.25 509760 509755 508748 503742 496740 487740 476743 474743
      474739 472733 468724 465720 468714 471707 474699 471698
      468701 463707 445734 443744 443756 447780 450784 451791
      451797 450801 449807 447803 444799 442800 441804 440812
      439824 437846 435859 432868 426876 423879 421874 419871
      418865 415855 413852 409850 399851 395854 392858 389868
      388878 386886 386893 385914 382935 380949 377961 377965
      378968 380972 380983 380986 382988 389983 395977 398975
      403976 406980 408986 410990 412992 415989 417984 419979
      423975 428970 432963 435954 438943 442933 442926 442919
      436918 438905 442905 444903 446899 447893 447879 447872
      448868 451855 455849 461841 468833 473828 477821 480817
      483815 486816 489815 493811 495806 498797 501786 505774
      508768 509760
 0.25 421147 421145 422143 422140 420140 419140 418141 417142
      416144 416146 416149 416151 416153 416156 416157 417158
      418159 419156 419154 419152 420149 421148 421147
 0.25 411061 411056 407054 400051 396045 389038 386033 380026
      377019 374008 373000 365004 361011 359020 360023 363025
      362035 365043 365047 367052 374056 378058 381060 385067
      392068 399065 403065 409064 411061
 0.25 335750 333745 330747 328751 326755 326760 324764 323769
      323775 325776 326774 327769 329766 330761 332756 334752
      335750
 0.25 339814 339808 338802 336797 332794 329785 326781 323777
      318784 314794 311801 304810 302812 300817 296827 293836
      292847 292853 294857 299859 302857 303853 304854 307856
      309852 312841 314838 315836 319834 327832 331830 334825
      338820 339814
 0.25 306093 307088 305084 301082 296081 285079 276077 269072
      266070 262070 260072 260075 263079 270085 278088 285092
      288095 294095 302097 306093
 0.50 453742 451743 450744 449746 449748 450749 451748 451747
      452745 453743 453742
 0.50 459827 459825 458823 457825 457827 458829 459827
 0.50 448853 448846 447839 446833 446826 445817 444817 443821
      442827 443836 441848 438859 437866 435871 431874 429881
      426890 424894 420896 418896 417892 416886 415877 413870
      410859 409855 406852 397857 394862 392867 391878 389891
      387906 387920 386932 386944 386957 387972 390973 394971
      401965 417973 426957 429960 432956 436942 437938 437932
      432933 428932 428928 429924 431919 433913 435907 435892
      435885 437880 439878 440882 441885 443878 444870 448853
 0.50 400055 394048 389043 384033 379027 374020 371023 369028
      366031 366035 367040 370043 374052 381056 387062 392062
      396060 400055
 0.50 332811 332804 328801 325802 322806 318808 317807 313808
      304813 302817 300823 300828 297834 297838 301836 303840
      305843 306841 311832 315830 322828 327820 332811
 1.00 433945 434937 430938 427939 426937 421935 420928 421921
      422913 419907 413902 410896 410891 408879 407873 405871
      402871 399874 397879 396886 394892 392902 392920 390932
      393947 393961 395963 398963 402959 408950 412949 414956
      414961 415964 418964 423953 433945
 1.00 387052 386051 385049 384049 383049 381050 380051 381051
      383053 384052 386052 387052
 1.00 384042 383040 382037 380034 378033 375033 373033 369034
      369035 371038 373040 376042 378043 381044 382044 384042
 1.00 326810 326806 324805 320809 316813 310814 305818 304825
      306831 309828 314825 318824 320821 325818 326812 326810
 1.50 419954 421948 421942 418938 417933 413926 414917 405901
      405889 405883 402883 399890 397894 396901 396907 396911
      399910 403909 403913 401924 397931 397945 396954 396957
      398957 401954 409940 412940 414943 416954 418957 419954
 1.50 382040 380038 380037 378036 376036 375036 373037 375038
      376039 377040 378040 380041 382040 382040
 1.50 324808 322807 320810 319813 317814 315815 312817 310820
      309822 311824 313824 316822 318821 319819 323817 324814
      324810 324808
 2.00 417947 418945 417943 417945 417947 417947
 2.00 416940 416938 416937 414935 414934 414935 414936 415938
      416940 416942 416940
 2.00 412919 412917 410913 408911 405912 404915 403919 403922
      403926 402931 402936 405937 407935 409933 411931 410929
      411926 412922 412919
 2.00 403894 403892 402890 401892 400894 399897 401898 402896
      403895 403894
 2.00 320817 320815 319814 318815 317816 316817 315817 314818
      313820 314821 316820 317819 317818 319817 320817
 3.00 408926 408924 408922 407921 406922 406924 407927 406929
      405931 406930 407929 408926

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