Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 261858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 27/0000 UTC THRU MAY 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING IN THE COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING NEGATIVELY TILTED VORT
EXITING THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE ABOVE
AVERAGE PW AXIS AHEAD OF THIS VORT AND ASSOCIATED WELL DEFINED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM NORTHERN WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI.  ISOLATED
RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING FROM ISOLATED SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF 1"+ ACROSS THESE
AREAS.


SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED VORT THAT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES---WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY
IGNITE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS---CAPE VALUES 3000 J/KG+.  CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT
WITH QPF DETAILS--BUT THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE LATEST
GFS---NAM--ECMWF---UKMET AND CMC GEM FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM
EASTERN OK---WESTERN AR INTO NORTHEAST TX.  ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE
LOWERED FFG VALUES.

GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WITH ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PUSH EXPECTED TO
THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WA/OR/ID BORDER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS---A BROAD REGION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT TO
MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED---WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY
AMOUNTS.  CONFIDENCE---HOWEVER--IS LOW WITH QPF DETAILS.  THE IN
HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN USED TO MITIGATE MODEL
DIFFERENCES.

SOUTHEASTERN U.S.---APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST

BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROF
MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL TRANSPORT AN AXIS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PW
AXIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST---NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC
INTO THE NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT WITH QPF DETAILS---BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 531205 534187 533181 533173 531162 527151 524147 521144
      514139 509135 506130 505127 505123 506114 505105 506091
      503080 500072 493064 490060 488055 485047 480037 477033
      472030 466024 452012 444006 435001 427998 417994 400988
      396987 393985 384982 380980 375977 374973 377970 381962
      384952 388950 389945 391938 392933 394922 396910 396903
      395898 396892 399888 404878 409870 414861 420852 435859
      438861 440862 440865 438872 438879 437883 441892 438914
      440918 443921 452924 458924 462921 469913 472910 475906
      477902 479905 480909 484907 487907 489903 492890 493877
      495864 499855 502847 506839 510827 514816 521795 525784
      527779 528772 531760 533747 535733 533725 530715 527704
      527700 525696 524691 522685 521680 519673 517669 513662
      510658 506653 502645 499642 496638 489641 484643 481646
      474653 470656 467661 461670 438702 429714 424720 418728
      411735 403740 399744 395743 391751 377762 369768 361775
      346786 339790 334795 329802 326807 322810 318816 315819
      310821 305821 299821 288821 267819 264819 260821 257825
      256829 263835 271839 275840 280841 284841 286842 284845
      275848 272849 269851 263856 256861 249865 250872 248877
      248884 247889 249892 253894 269902 272905 279906 287907
      293908 295909 296912 295925 298934 300939 301948 301954
      299960 295968 291995 287999 284003 278009 275012 274016
      275022 280022 290022 300019 307013 311011 313007 317003
      320001 326999 331004 333013 338019 341021 346022 351022
      353021 364021 372024 383025 391028
 0.01 391028 399030 408031 417032 424035 430039 434043 438051
      438056 440060 439063 437064 435061 427058 425055 420054
      417052 414054 412057 409058 403055 390049 381049 378050
      373050 365050 359054 357056 358058 364063 369068 372073
      376081 377086 376091 379099 381101 383097 386095 388098
      391102 389105 385111 386118 388120 389126 385135 382142
      380146 379151 381158 387164 389170 391173 395173 398172
      402172 411174 414174 415179 416182 419182 421180 422175
      428173 432169 435165 438164 443170 440178 439183 441186
      447192 449193 452194 458190 462185 466177 468173 471171
      478170 484176 486179 487185 485189 484194 482198 479201
      474203 468205 465207 467211 469212 472212 477213 484213
      490217 495223 498230 503236 507242 508246 511247 514245
      515242 513233 510225 508221 509217 510215 512211 515211
      518209 521210 531205
 0.01 438086 437083 435083 433085 431087 433089 435088 435087
      437087 438086
 0.01 419100 420097 420095 420093 420090 419088 417088 416085
      414085 413083 411082 409084 409087 409089 410091 410094
      412096 413098 414099 415100 416101 418101 419100
 0.25 526733 523722 520716 517713 514712 507713 502718 499724
      495731 492741 486754 479768 476773 470778 462786 455790
      449793 446795 444799 438802 431805 425803 420798 419794
      417788 414769 418764 424761 434758 439753 441745 441740
      438737 434732 430732 428734 421739 416743 410747 406749
      403752 400758 398766 395771 389774 384780 367800 357810
      345816 333825 326829 319832 310839 304851 300864 296870
      294876 293882 294888 296895 300899 302903 303907 306924
      310930 314937 317944 321950 326954 330955 331959 331966
      329973 327976 328980 334982 340987 346990 351990 353989
      359985 363978 365971 369952 374938 375928 374923 372922
      366923 359920 354921 348923 340927 334929 329924 326917
      324907 324900 325895 330881 336869 339863 343859 354850
      363841 373831 377826 381821 389818 394818 397819 410825
      419830 427830 434828 439828 445831 450837 454842 457850
      458862 457868 456872 454879 448893 444901 444906 445911
      447915 449917 456918 462913 465908 472898 478886 486872
      492858 498841 502824 507808 511796 517779 521763 525746
      526733
 0.25 490129 487119 484117 480118 474124 469125 466122 461120
      457119 453122 451127 452133 453137 456142 459145 465145
      468142 470143 472139 479137 486132 490129
 0.25 480107 481100 481093 479087 478082 477079 473078 471084
      468088 467092 467097 470102 472106 474110 478112 480107
      480107
 0.25 473066 474064 473062 471061 469060 469061 468063 469065
      469066 471067 472068 473066
 0.25 448146 448143 448142 446141 445143 445145 445146 447146
      448146
 0.25 444113 442110 438107 435105 432106 428109 424115 420119
      419121 419126 419129 422131 427127 430122 434116 439115
      444113
 0.50 518748 518739 516731 514727 510729 505736 501746 483781
      478790 476796 473800 470803 467805 458804 453804 449807
      445812 444817 446823 449825 455833 460841 462854 463861
      462867 459876 449896 448900 447906 448912 452914 455916
      458913 464905 473889 483871 487861 490851 501808 508786
      514766 518748
 0.50 404792 405789 404786 401785 393784 389784 384789 374801
      369806 364810 352820 342828 328835 322839 318845 311857
      310865 310873 308880 307884 307888 309891 313890 318885
      324872 328865 331860 336854 342850 349847 354843 364832
      373822 392801 395798 400796 404792
 0.50 368941 369936 368934 362933 350933 345935 343939 341944
      341949 340955 339960 340973 342979 344982 348984 351983
      355981 358977 360972 363961 366947 368941
 1.00 491808 491799 487802 483811 479822 477825 472826 469831
      468838 467843 468850 469865 465873 456891 453897 452903
      453908 457908 467890 472880 476870 479860 482849 486837
      488826 491808
 1.00 356956 355954 354955 352956 350958 348960 348962 348963
      349965 350967 352966 353965 354963 355960 355958 356956

$$





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