Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200640
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 20/1200 UTC THRU OCT 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN

THE UPPER TROF ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL BE PUSHING
INLAND INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION DAY 1.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF WILL REMAIN MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS IT MOVES INLAND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWEST
NV--WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF WILL BE MORE SHEARED.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONCENTRATE FROM THE WA/OREGON CASCADES TO THE
WA/OREGON COAST RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN CA--WITH AREAL AVERAGE
MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.  LIGHTER TOTALS
EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.

SOUTHERN NM/FAR SOUTHWEST TX INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE/FAR SOUTH TX

THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DAY 1---BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS DEFINED WITH TIME.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS---IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN STRETCHING AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.
CONFIDENCE ON QPF DETAILS IS LOW ACROSS THESE AREAS GIVEN LARGE
MODEL TO MODEL SPREAD.  THE SREF MEAN AND IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN USED FOR QPF DETAILS GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.  MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX--WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS DEPICTED
FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE/FAR SOUTH TX AREA.

EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES--OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAY 1.
STRENGTHENING UVVS AHEAD OF THIS TROF WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES--INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.  THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .10-.25" AMOUNTS FROM NORTHEAST OH---NORTHWEST
PA AND INTO WESTERN NY.

FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTH FL

THE BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD FOR THE KEYS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA DAY
1 AS HIGHER PW VALUES BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL STRENGTHEN UVVS IN THE
INCREASINGLY HIGH PW AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA--SUPPORTING THE
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN QPF
DETAILS---WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED THROUGH THE KEYS AND FAR
SOUTH FLORIDA--WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 536207 536195 533186 526172 522165 519161 514160 508161
      500160 493161 488161 484159 474149 469141 464135 459135
      456137 450141 444139 437136 435139 434145 432148 430151
      422147 419149 417153 410157 406156 402157 396161 394163
      393168 395170 398170 402169 406168 410169 412173 416180
      421182 423184 426187 429188 428192 423196 420199 418202
      411204 403203 398202 394200 390198 386199 383202 384204
      387212 392218 391221 386221 374227 372229 369233 372240
      377245 387248 389252 392254 395257 398257 405256 412255
      442252 458250 466252 473257 479263 484271 488278 493285
      498291 503293 506293 511288 515280 519268 520264 520259
      519250 516240 513231 510223 506216 504213 505210 506207
      508206 513209 518215 520218 524220 530218 534213 536207
 0.01 489808 486796 481785 475775 468769 464757 461752 460745
      455732 448729 433741 421744 416746 412751 404757 399765
      393773 394779 397784 391792 384799 367811 363814 361819
      360824 362828 366829 372829 379823 388816 391815 393817
      397819 397824 394830 394836 395844 397849 400853 403856
      409854 423841 429831 432827 434826 436828 440830 445832
      453828 457828 462830 465830 467832 469836 473840 478840
      484834 487820 489808
 0.01 440180 440178 438178 437178 435179 433181 431183 429185
      428187 430190 432188 434188 435188 436187 437186 438185
      439182 440181 440180
 0.01 423711 420705 415703 409702 404703 391706 385709 378711
      369718 360726 342741 336749 333754 331761 332765 334767
      338769 339772 339775 341777 349768 357760 367753 375746
      395732 402730 406731 411727 415722 420716 423711
 0.01 421872 419867 416865 412863 408861 406859 403857 399857
      398862 400867 403869 405871 409873 414875 418875 421872
      421872
 0.01 367949 366944 365941 363932 360931 357933 352938 348944
      345952 344956 346958 350963 356965 359963 361959 364953
      367949
 0.01 343081 344074 341071 334064 335057 337051 335047 331044
      322027 316019 309013 300008 296005 293002 283985 281980
      281975 281970 279966 271962 266962 263966 259973 256978
      253982 250981 246978 241970 237967 234969 231971 233975
      234980 234987 238996 262025 263030 265035 268038 271041
      275040 276042 277049 279053 280055 277056 273058 271062
      273067 275069 283075 288077 294078 304082 314084 319084
      324081 333086 338082 343081
 0.01 296805 296796 295790 292783 291780 288779 284780 282786
      283794 282800 281807 285810 290813 292814 295814 296807
      296805
 0.01 261801 257796 253797 250798 243802 240808 237814 234822
      232828 230836 230842 232852 236857 242860 249861 255858
      259852 261846 261836 260825 260820 259815 257811 256805
      260803 261801
 0.25 530208 531199 529193 524184 520180 517176 513173 507170
      502168 496169 492168 489170 489175 491180 496184 498188
      502188 508188 513192 519200 522205 526209 530208
 0.25 513263 514256 514249 511239 503220 498211 493204 492201
      490200 486202 478205 472209 465213 456216 451215 434218
      426220 424230 397209 395210 398215 404219 407225 407231
      405236 404240 408244 413246 421247 426246 429241 431236
      434234 442231 449228 451226 453227 454231 450234 449239
      455241 463242 466242 468244 472248 478254 485261 490268
      497276 501280 505279 506266 511265 513263
 0.25 499255 496249 495244 491238 489231 486225 484224 482225
      480229 481234 482236 489237 492243 496249 498255 499255
 0.25 467799 467793 466789 460783 458779 458774 457768 455765
      451765 447767 440771 436772 432771 427773 425775 420780
      415787 413795 412805 410812 411816 416815 429809 436806
      439806 440810 443812 447812 454810 462809 465806 466801
      467799
 0.25 455186 456184 456182 455181 454180 453181 452182 450182
      448181 447181 446182 445184 446186 448187 449189 449190
      451191 451190 453189 453188 455186 455186
 0.25 454154 453153 452152 450151 448151 448150 447150 445149
      444150 443150 442152 442154 443155 444156 445157 446158
      447159 449160 451158 452156 453155 454154
 0.25 326057 325051 322048 317039 313032 306026 297022 293020
      289016 283011 275007 267002 263000 261004 265013 270020
      274023 278024 283027 286030 290038 294048 298055 306062
      312067 316069 320068 326057
 0.25 251824 251818 249813 248808 245809 242812 240816 239821
      239825 239831 240836 243837 245834 249831 250826 251824
 0.50 508248 507242 504237 502232 501225 500220 497214 488211
      478210 474212 470215 471218 475218 479217 485218 488222
      492227 497236 503245 506250 508248
 0.50 502275 503270 502266 498261 495254 492248 490244 487243
      485245 483247 484251 486256 490263 493268 497272 502275
 0.50 480244 480243 480241 480239 479236 478234 476233 474233
      473234 472236 472239 473241 473242 474244 476245 477245
      478246 479245 480244
 0.50 447224 447221 445220 443219 441220 439221 437223 435225
      433226 433227 435228 437229 438228 440227 442227 442226
      444226 445226 446225 447224
 0.50 312045 312041 311039 310036 308034 306032 303030 299030
      297031 295035 297039 298041 300043 304044 305046 309047
      312045

$$





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