Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240555
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 24/1200 UTC THRU JUL 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

FRONT RANGE OF CO/SOUTHERN KS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
OVER 2000 J/KG DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (PER 21Z SREF MEAN FORECAST
FIELDS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THREATENING 1.25" ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN EASTERN CO DURING
DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HANDLE ITS
FORMATION, FEW TRACK IT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS -- THE 00Z
NMMB/00Z UKMET ARE CLOSEST TO WHAT WAS DRAWN FOR THE QPF IN KS.
USING 700 HPA TEMPERATURES AS A GUIDE, THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A
MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TO HINDER ITS PROGRESSION INTO THE
PLAINS OF KS, SO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE EASTWARD.  THIS LED TO A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO 00Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.


GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~
A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING IN MN IS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST BY
THE 00Z MESOSCALE GUIDANCE TO HOLD ON AS THEY TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WI AND MI DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, PERHAPS BECOMING MORE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL WISE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS MI.  CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF
20-40 KTS IS SEEN NEAR THE TRACK OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHILE MUCAPES CURRENTLY
2000-4000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
2" HERE.  ACCOUNTING FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS LED TO A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE TO THE 00Z WPC QPF CONTINUITY.  THE QPF WAS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE OF THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE; THE 00Z SPC WRF, 00Z WRF
NSSL, 00Z NAM CONEST, 00Z ARW, AND 00Z NMMB.


IN/OH/WV
~~~~~~~~
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN IN, WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STEADY STATE SINCE 00Z.
THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MISSING THE BOAT HERE SINCE THEY "COLD
START"; NOT USING RADAR IMAGERY DURING INITIALIZATION.  THE 00Z
NAM BRIEFLY HAD IT BEFORE LOSING IT QUICKLY AND FORMING CONVECTION
IN THE SAME SPOT ACROSS NORTHERN IN 6-12 HOURS LATER.  ALLOWED THE
SYSTEM TO PROPAGATE ALONG AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST-SOUTHEAST DOWN A FRONTAL ZONE TOWARDS WV BEFORE DISSIPATING
JUST AFTER 12Z.  A RECENT BRIEFING FROM SAB/NESDIS INDICATES IT
HAS AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS OF LIFE LEFT AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION`S ISSUANCE.  THIS LED TO CHANGES IN THE 00Z WPC QPF
CONTINUITY AS WELL.  UNCERTAINTY IS NATURALLY HIGHEST IN THIS
REGION/WITH THIS COMPLEX DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.


NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE, MESOSCALE AND OTHERWISE, SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF
DISPERSION IN THIS REGION WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM.  COMPLICATING MATTERS WOULD
BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF IN AS WELL
AS ANY MOVING OUT FROM WHAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MI.  SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE, WHICH ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE 00Z
NMMB AND 00Z SPC WRF AXIS-WISE.


SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST/FL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SE/FL THIS PD WITH AREA OF
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES..AT OR ABOVE 2"..UNDER UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S.  AN OLD MCV ACROSS MS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SWWD THIS PD TOWARD SOUTHERN AR AND MAY HELP FOCUS HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG ITS TRACK.  OTHERWISE SEA BREEZE CONFERENCE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MAIN TRIGGERS/FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
ACROSS FL, A WEAK UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACRS THE
STATE AND COULD HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACRS THE
CNTL/SRN PORTION OF FL.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 532915 532896 530887 530878 528871 526867 524863 523855
      519831 518826 516822 510814 499799 497788 501789 506788
      512782 512774 511766 510760 508758 506753 503749 497742
      493738 489736 481731 474728 470726 467726 459724 443721
      423727 407738 404748 403753 400756 393760 389762 387766
      380773 374781 375786 372790 368797 367800 370803 376808
      380810 382814 381820 381825 383832 382838 379850 378862
      377867 376874 374896 373901 370903 369889 366878 367872
      370868 374857 376848 377844 378838 378826 378820 376817
      371817 367819 363822 357822 353818 350813 344807 342803
      339801 328802 323803 320806 314812 311814 306814 301814
      297813 292811 289811 290809 292805 293800 292793 289791
      284789 279789 271789 250791 245792 243795 241800 238803
      233808 232812 233818 238825 243831 245833 248833 251834
      253837 254841 257846 261849 265850 268854 263856 258858
      255861 250869 256881 258885 262886 271889 274889 274892
      274896 275902 276906 277910 279916 280931 280944 280950
      279953 279960 281964 283967 286968 298952 303945 312947
      315948 321949 329950 341950 348954 353955 356958 360965
      362970 362977 361985 359991 351011 348019 344028 342034
      338038 335040 333043 337045 339048 337049 334051 329052
      323046 315045 309049 312052 315050 321051 324054 321056
      317056 314060 310062 306063 304061 299058 293060 283055
      269045 251036 243040 240042 238047 233053 230058 234066
      235069 231072 232075 235078 238086 243096 250099 256096
      261095 265097 268104 273106 277105 280107 293121 300127
      309130 314132 318135 323139 327139 332136 333133 333128
      328118 329115 331116 336119 342125 347127 351130 358133
      365129 366124 365121 361118 356116 350110 346108 345103
 0.01 345103 344099 347095 349094 352091 356091 358094 361093
      364094 371095 373093 369092 367090 362089 359086 359082
      359077 364077 367075 371077 375082 382084 384093 387095
      387091 386081 384077 384072 387069 392069 397065 409061
      416057 417052 416048 412038 407035 403033 402030 399023
      394018 390013 388009 388005 394001 399005 412014 421023
      426030 431035 435041 438040 438034 440028 437023 433018
      430011 415984 412975 410966 414952 414940 413929 413924
      413919 418914 423908 428903 435901 443899 450897 455897
      458898 470903 484909 487910 488915 487919 487924 482942
      482947 484950 487957 490962 493963 497957 502952 506947
      509944 512944 517944 523939 526932 532915
 0.01 471658 470652 468648 462641 456635 450630 446630 443634
      442639 442645 439653 446651 452654 455658 458662 460664
      465663 470661 471658
 0.01 337156 338152 334151 330151 328153 322156 315154 311153
      308151 306152 307155 313159 320164 327166 331167 331163
      330158 333157 337156
 0.01 340865 340860 338858 334852 333850 329850 327849 323849
      316849 315854 315858 317866 319872 320875 323876 327876
      329874 334871 339867 340865
 0.01 325076 322075 320076 318078 316080 312079 312083 314085
      315087 317088 320090 322087 322082 323078 325076
 0.25 523905 524899 523896 518893 513892 508893 503896 503900
      505903 508908 511913 515917 519918 522913 523905
 0.25 483809 483800 480795 473790 467787 461781 455776 447773
      444771 439770 435770 431767 429761 426758 422755 417755
      413758 411761 408769 404777 397783 396796 395802 394805
      390809 388815 387820 388827 394845 394852 394857 392869
      391890 385913 381932 377956 375961 373964 372970 371976
      371982 369989 366999 363006 360017 361022 363025 366023
      369024 370028 368034 363041 358049 355053 356059 361060
      365059 373057 378057 384057 392055 396053 395048 394041
      394036 395031 393027 386022 383018 379017 381008 384998
      389990 392988 394983 398975 402963 403956 402949 400939
      394934 392930 393925 395920 398917 398910 401906 405899
      413879 419872 422871 425873 429883 435891 440891 444890
      448889 453886 455883 457877 455864 452853 451849 451844
      451837 453831 457825 461820 466819 477820 480818 481815
      483809
 0.25 405053 404053 403051 402050 401051 400051 399052 397053
      399054 400055 402055 404054 405053
 0.25 357832 356830 355830 353833 350835 348838 347840 346842
      347846 349844 351842 353839 354837 356835 357832
 0.25 348908 349903 345902 340901 330902 324904 317905 313903
      310899 306871 306864 308859 303850 296843 292838 288836
      283834 279830 277825 278819 278815 277811 273807 270804
      267801 256797 252798 248801 246807 248812 253822 257826
      261829 269834 277842 280845 282850 282856 276859 266863
      263868 263872 265876 269878 274879 279879 284878 288877
      291881 293887 290891 289896 290902 291910 292914 288925
      286932 287939 287944 290949 295945 297939 298937 303939
      311940 317940 328942 334941 338937 337925 344916 348908
 0.25 341089 339087 337085 335085 334085 332086 331088 331089
      332090 333092 335093 337093 338092 339091 340089 341089
 0.25 321112 321108 321105 318100 314096 309093 307091 306087
      305082 292077 284077 278076 272077 270073 271067 269062
      266057 263053 258049 252047 248047 246048 245052 244055
      241055 238059 241064 245068 249072 249075 247076 247081
      251085 256085 259084 267092 276099 281103 288104 294106
      298109 305119 315120 318118 321112
 0.50 445807 446801 445795 441790 439786 436785 429784 426782
      424779 421773 419771 416771 413777 409784 406791 403808
      400824 399833 400844 400850 399854 397861 395870 395874
      396876 397883 395891 399891 401888 404882 412870 420860
      424860 427862 430868 433876 437881 440883 442882 445874
      445865 443856 440849 440843 441840 443830 444822 445807
 0.50 392043 392039 393034 391029 388027 385024 383023 381024
      380027 381033 382038 383044 385047 388046 392043 392043
 0.50 393968 394963 393960 389960 387963 386965 386968 385972
      385977 387979 388979 389977 391972 392970 393968
 0.50 384990 385985 384979 380974 378970 376970 375973 374979
      373990 371998 368005 367010 374006 378001 382994 384990
 0.50 375051 374050 372049 370049 369050 368052 370053 372053
      373053 374052 375051
 0.50 328919 323918 319917 313916 308917 304918 304924 306928
      308930 312933 316935 320935 324932 325928 326922 328919
 0.50 317110 317103 312099 307097 303095 302093 303085 299085
      284084 277083 271085 267087 269091 274095 278096 292098
      298100 301104 305117 309117 314114 317110
 0.50 299865 299861 297859 295859 294855 294851 292847 291845
      289843 288843 287848 288852 289855 291857 293858 295862
      295864 297866 299865
 0.50 274818 271812 266806 259804 255804 254801 250802 248804
      254806 255812 259817 263824 269827 272822 274818
 1.00 433835 433829 431826 423820 421818 416818 415821 413826
      413833 414840 414849 411852 410857 408862 410864 415858
      418853 422852 427851 431854 433850 433842 433835
 1.00 390038 390036 390034 389033 387032 386033 386036 386038
      387039 389039 390038
 1.00 313111 314109 315107 314105 314104 312103 311103 310103
      308103 308104 307106 306108 306110 306112 307114 309115
      311114 312113 313111 313111
 1.50 427841 426840 425844 426842 427841
 1.50 311111 312109 312107 312106 310106 309107 308109 308111
      309113 311112 311111
$$





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