Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 190559
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1259 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 19/1200 UTC THRU DEC 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...ERN TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN AND ELEVATED TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FRI MRNG ACRS ERN TX AND SRN LA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SFC WAVE DVLPG
ALONG WARM FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEX AS S/WV ENERGY
KICKS EWD FROM THE SRN HI PLAINS.   MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE WARM FRONT FROM BARELY GETTING MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE IMMEDIATE UPR TX/SRN LA COAST AS S/WV GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY BY SAT MRNG.  SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FCST TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO PARTS OF ERN TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND UA DATA SUGGESTS SOME POTNL FOR TRAINING OF
CELLS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ...MAINLY
THRU THE EARLY FRIDAY OVERNIGHT PD.  LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THIS WAS GENLY ACCEPTED GIVEN WEAK
INLAND INSTABILITY AND POSITION OF THE UPR JET.  IN
ADDITION...MOST OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER
THAN GLOBAL RUNS ACRS THIS AREA...AND THE HIER AMOUNTS GENLY AGREE
WITH GFS REFORECAST AMOUNTS ACRS THIS AREA.  AS A RESULT...GENLY
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF HI RES GUIDANCE WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2+
AMOUNTS FROM THE UPR TX COAST EWD INTO SRN MS.  FFG VALUES ACRS
THIS AREA ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND THUS ANY RUNOFF CONCERNS SHOULD
BE RATHER ISOLD.

...WEST COAST...

MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING S/WV TROF AND
ASSOCD COLD FRONT ACRS THE PAC NW FRI MRNG AND WEAKENING IT
RAPIDLY ACRS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT.  A
BRIEF LET UP IN SHOWER/SHOWSHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACRS THE
PAC NW ON FRI BEFORE POWERFUL E/W PAC JET BRINGS NEXT COLD FRONT
RAPIDLY TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST BY SAT MRNG.  THERE HAS BEEN GENLY
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF BOTH SYSTEMS WITH
MAIN QPF FOCUS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES OF OREGON/WA AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE NRN SIERRA RANGE WITH GENL .50 TO 1 INCH LIQUID
EQUIVS EXPECTED ACRS THOSE AREA.  MANUAL QPF DID NOT SWAY MUCH
FROM CONTINUITY GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.   SEE QPFHSD FOR
WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 525260 523249 520240 512227 509216 507203 512203 516205
      519215 528219 532220 534215 535212 535205 535198 534195
      530189 526179 525173 522167 515163 504149 497145 495143
      493138 487132 480128 475127 470127 467126 467122 469115
      473107 467102 459101 455099 452096 450094 444093 437095
      434095 431092 426089 426091 429101 427104 423105 417109
      414108 413106 411103 408104 407109 403111 401113 398112
      394114 394119 397120 399122 400129 399135 397141 394148
      392153 391157 394165 398173 405179 407185 408189 406194
      403196 393195 390196 385194 381190 374191 372194 373198
      375202 375206 372208 363207 358208 355210 352212 351218
      351223 352227 350238 350242 353245 361247 370252 376249
      380246 383245 386254 389260 392263 396265 403269 410275
      417281 423283 427286 446293 455297 461298 479299 484300
      487300 491300 495299 502293 506295 510299
 0.01 497949 498941 495937 493935 493931 496926 496918 494913
      490910 485909 480909 477912 469920 467925 469933 469938
      469940 472940 478941 480942 480947 483950 487953 491955
      494954 496952 497949
 0.01 455081 454080 453078 451076 451075 450075 448075 446072
      445072 444075 444077 446080 447082 449083 451083 453083
      454083 455081
 0.01 434771 433766 432763 431759 429757 427755 425753 422752
      422756 422761 423765 424768 426771 428774 430776 432773
      434771
 0.01 415076 415071 412067 409065 405065 401069 398071 397076
      399076 403074 405072 408075 409077 413078 415076
 0.01 368836 367825 365818 361814 359812 355812 347813 340809
      333796 329790 327787 325786 321790 319795 309824 306832
      303839 301844 298849 287857 282862 281867 280871 280876
      278879 271881 260886 258887 258892 258896 260899 270909
      278920 277926 274932 270937 266944 266953 261958 256963
      255970 258975 260982 263988 267993 271997 278003 283006
      286008 290008 296010 303011 317016 324019 330023 339024
      344021 348016 351011 355995 355972 356961 357958 357954
      354949 350949 349946 349926 348914 346903 345895 344890
      345886 350873 352866 355861 360854 364847 366842 368836
 0.25 515267 515260 515253 511244 509236 507231 501221 499216
      494214 486215 490228 492233 493235 492240 488236 484236
      480234 477230 474230 469231 466230 466227 466223 466218
      460216 456217 452218 447218 436218 426220 421221 417217
      414213 409211 401205 396202 389199 385198 381199 380206
      382211 384216 384221 381223 376219 374217 371216 369218
      369222 371226 374228 384233 387235 390234 394233 401241
      405249 408253 413257 426260 430264 430271 433274 437275
      448277 455279 461282 467285 473286 478287 482287 486286
      492287 502285 507285 510281 515267
 0.25 505174 504170 499165 494165 491164 488162 486159 480156
      476157 472156 469151 464148 460149 459153 460158 465167
      469169 475170 487174 497177 500178 503177 505174 505174
 0.25 463181 462176 461175 457175 455172 453164 452160 448158
      441155 442164 441173 438180 438183 439188 441190 444190
      451188 453186 456186 462181 463181
 0.25 445111 444108 443108 442108 443111 445111
 0.25 364218 365216 364213 362212 360212 360215 361217 363219
      364218
 0.25 335893 335882 333875 329857 324851 317849 314849 311851
      307856 301870 298877 292881 285884 282890 286902 284905
      284910 286915 286924 284933 276963 277972 279979 280982
      282982 288977 290974 294974 301973 305973 308975 311976
      315975 319970 322964 325956 327947 329929 331920 332911
      334902 335893
 0.50 507266 508258 508254 507251 505240 502231 499223 497220
      493220 492224 493229 496236 502243 505249 504255 499255
      494248 489242 484242 478235 474233 471236 446234 439235
      434238 422236 415237 412239 411242 412246 417249 426250
      439247 447246 455246 462247 469250 474257 480262 483265
      485269 490275 497281 502280 504278 505273 507266
 0.50 461223 460222 459221 458222 458224 460224 461223
 0.50 412224 413219 412217 410217 405217 402212 399208 394203
      387202 386205 386207 391212 396216 401219 405219 407225
      410226 412224
 0.50 328904 328888 325872 325864 321861 315862 311867 298884
      294889 292891 294892 297898 295903 291907 290909 291913
      292916 292920 291927 284952 281965 282969 284971 290969
      300965 310969 313966 314963 315957 317941 322931 324925
      326917 328904
 1.00 501274 502270 501267 497261 495256 492250 486248 479244
      478244 479251 483255 487260 491266 494271 499275 501274
 1.00 399213 398212 397210 396210 396212 398213 399213
 1.00 321909 321898 320887 316879 312878 309880 304887 302895
      300904 297914 295933 293941 292946 290949 288953 287958
      290962 292962 298958 304952 310937 317922 320915 321909
 1.50 499269 498266 497265 495264 494262 494261 492260 492261
      493264 495267 496269 498270 499269
 1.50 315907 316898 316893 315888 311884 309884 307888 304901
      301908 301916 299925 299933 298937 298941 295947 292952
      292957 294956 302945 308933 311928 313920 315907
 2.00 313896 313891 310890 308894 307899 306904 304908 304912
      306917 309913 310909 311903 312898 313896
 2.00 307930 307928 307926 306925 305925 304926 303928 303929
      303931 302933 302935 303936 305935 306933 306931 307930

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.