Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 22/0000 UTC THRU MAR 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

WEST COAST---GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
INITIAL FULL LATITUDE TROF OFF THE WEST COAST ALONG APPROXIMATELY
130W.  THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA--THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN---WHILE ADDITIONAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT
FALLS DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF OFF THE CA COAST AND FORM A
MORE DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM TROF MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
LIKELY AHEAD OF BOTH COMPONENTS OF THIS TROF DAY 1.  AMOUNT
WISE---MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY FROM THE
WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES--WEST TO THE WA/OR COAST RANGES AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE AND INLAND
THROUGH THE SIERRA.  LIGHTER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RANGE EXPECTED INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS

THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF AREAS OF CONCENTRATED ISENTROPIC LIFT
EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS OVERRUNNING
THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF EASTERN WY---ACROSS SD---INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
ND---SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA.

LOWER MS VALLEY---TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST

THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE
PRESSING SOUTHWARD DAY 1 TOWARD THE GULF COAST.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THAT IS PUSHING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST MO INTO
WESTERN KY AND TN---WITH THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CONTINUING TO
PRESS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE THE USUAL AMONG OF MODEL QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT---BUT AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.  OVERALL---THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE---KEEPING ANY RUNOFF ISSUES AT A
MINIMUM.  WITH THE PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCINGS MOVING OFFSHORE OF
NC DURING WEDNESDAY---ANY PRECIP IN ITS WAKE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS.

NORTHERN MAINE

STRONG HEIGHT FALL ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL HELP DEEPEN SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT
SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS LOW EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL DOWN EAST MAINE---WITH AN
EXPANDING AREA OF COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP AFFECTING NORTHERN
MAINE.  AT THE MOMENT---PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .10-.25"+ RANGE
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN MAINE---SUPPORTING MOSTLY MODERATE SNOWFALL
TOTALS.

LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND

IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING ARCTIC FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES---LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES.
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN INTO NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE AREA ALSO.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 482616 485634 486643 489649 493653 498656 503657 508655
      510659 511664 513667 514674 514681 514686 513689 511696
      509701 507709 503721 500732 494743 486750 480751 475751
      469751 465750 451754 443761 439764 436769 433781 430795
      422801 419808 418814 414817 411814 410808 411799 413795
      414793 416794 420768 421760 423756 429745 432740 435735
      427731 428726 433722 437712 446705 450701 452695 451690
      449687 447681 444679 441680 435681 425679 424672 426668
      432656 433654 432650 432645 434639 437632
 0.01 514286 512282 515279 518275 518270 520260 522245 518236
      514228 508219 506216 507212 512213 517215 521217 525220
      528219 532219 535218 538210 537199 536191 535186 524167
      518160 513152 501141 494134 491131 486128 477125 473123
      470120 464114 459113 455114 454095 423089 427097 427101
      422102 421107 416108 412100 410096 406095 400099 384109
      370118 357126 350132 343137 335142 327146 321149 314155
      308158 303158 300160 303176 306183 314189 331198 338204
      342210 348217 356224 369236 375242 378245 384248 391251
      401255 412258 415260 419259 436256 446258 456261 466265
      474270 481275 490283 495289 498292 501291 508295 512295
      513289
 0.01 478190 477185 474181 470178 466180 455194 452198 449202
      443205 441203 439199 439195 438192 439187 443179 435175
      431171 427173 423176 419176 411174 408169 405167 401169
      398171 391174 387176 384173 382170 381165 386157 388154
      388150 384148 380149 375150 372152 369155 366160 360165
      354171 357179 375184 391192 399196 403199 409200 415196
      424198 428201 432202 439209 442211 447211 453208 460202
      468201 474196 478190
 0.01 479874 479864 479859 477857 472853 465851 461849 456845
      450846 444848 441851 441854 441860 443863 446868 450870
      454867 457869 461874 463881 464887 463891 463901 464904
      467905 470900 473893 478878 479874
 0.01 474992 474986 473982 471974 462962 454954 450952 447951
      442947 435944 430940 424937 417935 411933 412938 415945
      417949 414952 417966 422982 432011 437026 436035 432044
      431063 434064 436062 439055 443048 445041 448031 451024
      458013 461004 464001 467001 472997 474992
 0.01 443135 445130 443128 444123 441121 438119 434121 432123
      431125 431129 433131 436133 440134 443135 443135
 0.01 375717 375710 373707 370702 368700 362696 355694 345696
      340697 337700 328706 322712 316718 311725 308733 307740
      305750 303762 301770 302776 304780 307784 310784 314782
      319782 322789 317798 320806 321809 322816 327840 330849
      329852 327849 325845 317832 307816 301812 293807 287806
      282807 280810 278814 280817 286821 296822 301826 307834
      312841 317848 323855 326857 329857 331855 333860 344871
      349879 350895 350901 348901 342894 340893 338895 338900
      340904 353943 358949 362951 366949 374947 377945 379941
      379929 378918 376906 373893 361858 359846 358834 357827
      358821 357808 355798 359790 362782 363773 364748 365743
      367739 372731 375724 375717
 0.25 527199 525190 522182 518177 512171 507170 504171 501173
      500176 500180 502184 505187 511191 516196 522200 525201
      527199
 0.25 515267 517258 517250 513239 508226 502216 499211 495207
      491206 486207 475209 466209 447214 437216 424216 405209
      397202 386195 376189 371187 368190 371195 376200 383207
      386212 384217 378217 372214 367215 361211 357209 355209
      354213 360222 367229 372233 377235 388241 399246 405249
      410249 423251 433250 453250 464251 471252 476257 483265
      491273 500280 503282 506282 509278 515267
 0.25 490167 489162 487157 485153 482153 477153 474156 472159
      471163 474166 479168 484169 488169 490167
 0.25 492147 492144 490140 489138 487136 484135 481134 477134
      476136 479139 482140 483142 485144 486148 488150 489149
      492147
 0.25 480685 476677 474675 475672 476665 475659 474655 472649
      468648 465650 460659 459664 459669 462681 464685 466690
      468695 471696 474694 478691 480685
 0.25 409154 408152 406152 404153 404154 404156 405157 407156
      409154
 0.25 349203 349199 348195 346187 346178 344170 342167 338166
      329164 327165 328169 333173 336180 338188 341195 345202
      347204 349203
 0.25 368936 369929 369923 368916 367912 365907 362905 361910
      360915 359921 360927 361933 363936 368937 368936
 0.25 355735 354725 352717 347714 341717 333726 328731 324736
      317746 313751 312755 312760 313769 318772 333773 339773
      344769 347764 350758 354744 355735
 0.25 355859 355851 355841 352826 348811 348803 346794 343790
      338788 331796 329801 328804 329809 330817 332824 335828
      336837 338842 340849 343854 347859 352860 355859
 0.50 515264 515257 514250 512241 507232 503223 499216 494213
      490214 489217 489221 491226 494235 498243 502251 506261
      508265 511267 513266 515264
 0.50 506279 506270 504262 496250 489238 486238 484240 482239
      481235 478229 472231 467234 463233 460234 462239 468243
      480251 487262 496273 500278 504280 506279
 0.50 462221 463218 463217 461217 459216 458216 456216 454217
      452218 451217 451220 452221 453221 455221 457222 458223
      460223 462221 462221
 0.50 429245 431241 429238 424235 416232 415231 414227 415222
      415217 411215 407214 405212 401208 390202 381194 376190
      373190 372192 375196 380200 389208 395219 404225 402226
      394225 374219 370217 366218 364217 361216 364221 368226
      373228 381230 387233 395240 401244 406245 412245 417246
      424247 429245
 0.50 347749 348743 347736 345730 342727 334732 329738 323745
      318752 317757 319762 325766 330767 336765 339764 343759
      346752 347749
 0.50 353850 353844 352837 351833 349827 345825 342828 341834
      343839 344845 345849 347853 351855 353852 353850
 1.00 477240 479238 478236 477234 476234 475235 475237 475238
      476240 477240 477240
 1.00 425241 424241 423239 422238 421238 419237 418236 416236
      415236 415239 417241 419241 420242 422242 424242 425241
 1.00 413224 413222 413219 412217 410218 409218 408220 407222
      407225 408227 408228 410230 411228 412226 413224
 1.00 403238 402235 402234 400234 400236 400237 401238 403238
 1.00 401216 402214 402213 400212 398211 397209 395210 395212
      396214 397215 398215 399216 401216 401216
 1.50 411223 412221 411220 410221 410223 411225 411223

$$





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