Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 031949
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 04/0000 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...

THIS WILL BE A WET PERIOD..BOTH IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THEN ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP THRU
THE OH VALLEY..WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST SNOWS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  A LEAD H5 S/WV NOW ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST IS PRECEDED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN..WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS THRU MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE TUESDAY EVENING
HOURS..AND WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST SNOWS UP
THRU THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.  THE
UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF NOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE EVENTUAL PHASING OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM H5 SYSTEM WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THRU WEDNESDAY..WITH ONLY SLOWLY
FALLING HEIGHTS AND A SLOW SOUTH AND EAST PUSH TO THE STRONGER AND
MORE MOIST SOUTWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.  THE LONG DURATION OF THE
DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM MAINLY THRU THE OH VALLEY..ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME LOWER
FF GUIDANCE VALUES IN PLACE.  ON WEDNESDAY..THIS CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN A
SLOWLY HEIGHT FALLING REGIME SHOULD THEN ALLOW THE TRANSITION FROM
A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT..AGAIN PRETTY
MUCH NEAR THE LENGTH OF THE OH RIVER.  WPC CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE
IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED QPF TO ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE
NORTH-SOUTH QPF DIFFERENCES THE MODELS ARE SHOWING..WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR SOME 2-3 INCH WATER EQUIVALENTS THIS PERIOD ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS
ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.



...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS REGION IN RESPONSE TO H5 S/WV ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN..SOUTHERN STREAM H5 ENERGY LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES..AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MODEL
QPFS GENERALLY SUPPORT SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CO AND NORTHERN NM..WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THRUOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  AGAIN..PLEASE SEE THE
QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

DAYS 2/3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

AMPLIFIED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO CHANNEL AMPLE MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO FALL ALONG A SLOW MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY
2.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE REMNANT ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN CA THROUGH
NORTHERN MEX/THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....SPURRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED EVENING...REACHING SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY EARLY THU.   MOISTURE THROWN BACK INTO DEEPENING COLD
AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LATE SEASON
WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.  REFER TO THE WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS
CONCERNING EXPECTED SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.  THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THU...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS MOST AREAS BY THU EVENING.
AS NOTED IN THE PMDHMD...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT THE AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT.  WPC AMOUNTS GAVE SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT TO THE GFS
AND ECMWF...WITH SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE LOCAL PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED ENSEMBLE QPF GUIDANCE AS WELL.  HOWEVER...GENERALLY
DISCOUNTED THE NAM WHICH IS A SLOWER OUTLIER IN COMPARISON TO THE
REMAINING 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

PEREIRA/KREKELER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 479617 483620 488623 491628 494635 496644 499648 503652
      507658 511662 515666 519671 522675 535716 538745
      539759 537771 538778 536784 529790 514804 514811 513816
      511824 506834 504839 502843 499850 496853 493853 484858
      484865 483869 478876 477887 475891 473895 471898 468901
      465898 465890 466883 466875 462864 460857 456855 453855
      450852 449847 451845 453842 457841 458836 455833 451824
      446819 443816 437816 427818 420823 414828 411836 408845
      396890 390904 387913 385923 384930 384937 384951 388958
      395963 398965 400969 404977 406988 411988 414987 416990
      417997 420009 423022 424034 423057 423062 421066 417073
      413078 410080 404080 400081 397085 391092 383095 380098
      378098 376097 376090 372082 370077 367072 366070 364069
      360072 361078 361083 359085 356080 353078 350080 345084
      344096 345102 346105 350114 354117 352119 347116 336113
      335109 331110 327109 323111 322116 323121 323126 320130
      311131 309133 310136 311142 315151 321158 322160 320164
      315166 310165 303162 294160 283158 279159 275159 272157
      269153 268150 268147 273139 280136 284135 285133 282130
      278125 276113 274108 271104 267102 262103 257103 253104
      246107 243106 242102 239098 243090 244087 241085 238082
      238076 241072 244070 245065 247060 250058 255057 264059
      271063 281065 285067 289066 293063 295059 295051 294046
      292040 291035 292012 293001 293996 291993 288985 284981
      283975 286958 289950 293943 297924 297910 295906 295899
      295886 299878 305871 310867 315867 319866 324865 327863
      333857 337851 334843 333835 337817 340808 344800 348790
      346788 344790 341794 337802 334807 333809 329810 327808
      327803 328799 330796 335791 339785 345778 347773 344768
      343764 343760 347752 348745 351738
 0.01 351738 354730 356725 357721 360713 365705 368696 371688
      375680 379672 383662 388656 394649 398644
 0.01 409110 410103 408098 404102 401107 398110 391113 383117
      377121 375127 374132 377132 380129 386123 392117 401116
      407112 409110
 0.01 366124 366122 366121 365121 363121 364123 364124 366124
      366124
 0.01 326076 324070 322065 319061 316055 312060 310064 307070
      306074 307078 312075 315071 317069 320069 320076 321080
      325078 326076
 0.25 478666 476659 472655 464650 454648 447648 439651 418654
      413656 407660 398666 392674 387685 384692 383699 380712
      379724 379738 380756 383764 385770 384777 383782 379793
      366816 361825 355835 350844 347855 343867 339877 333890
      331897 331904 331911 329916 324925 318936 313945 308955
      306960 305967 307974 310981 312986 317992 320994 325996
      331997 335003 337007 341010 347010 354009 358007 361003
      363996 360992 358987 359980 360969 363963 368952 373940
      379918 394865 400843 404831 408819 412809 417798 419790
      420783 420774 418767 414763 414756 417752 422749 426749
      429748 429750 430757 432762 435763 438761 440756 447748
      450751 452753 456752 459751 462748 463744 463737 461730
      458729 454732 452736 449741 447739 443735 438735 435735
      434733 434727 436724 440724 446724 448725 450729 455726
      460721 464717 468715 472711 472703 473698 473692 471690
      469691 467692 466688 468681 475672 477669 478666
 0.25 398051 398048 397047 396046 394045 393045 392046 391048
      390049 388050 390051 392051 393051 395051 397051 398051
 0.25 385052 383047 379046 374045 371046 367048 361049 360054
      365056 370055 374054 377051 383053 385052
 0.25 314107 314105 313105 313103 312101 311100 310100 309100
      308101 307101 305102 304104 304106 304107 305108 306109
      308110 309110 311110 312109 313108 314107
 0.25 316030 316028 317026 316026 314026 313026 312026 310027
      309028 308029 307030 307032 306034 308036 310036 312035
      312034 314033 314032 315031 316030
 0.25 305093 299083 294080 291076 285073 280071 274069 267067
      255063 250067 251073 254078 259082 265090 271093 278093
      291093 303095 305093
 0.50 445678 446676 446673 444671 442671 440672 439674 438675
      439678 441679 441680 443681 445680 445678
 0.50 439687 430687 425686 424682 423677 419676 417671 413669
      408670 404674 398681 393690 390700 388705 387711 388723
      388730 390739 392751 394757 398759 401756 403750 406741
      410733 417712 422703 425700 429697 436692 439689 439687
 0.50 414790 413783 411781 406776 402775 389788 382795 376805
      372813 368822 364832 359842 351861 343882 340891 337902
      335911 331924 323943 320952 321960 324965 331970 337970
      342969 349964 355955 361947 366938 374918 381897 388876
      394856 400832 406810 409798 414790
 0.50 290085 288081 284076 278074 273071 267070 262070 258071
      257073 261078 265080 269085 275087 282087 288086 290085
 1.00 402809 402797 399792 394793 388799 384804 380811 376820
      373827 370835 359869 348903 341920 335934 333943 332950
      333952 336954 341954 346950 351945 357938 364924 371908
      378893 384875 390858 399823 402809
 1.50 398807 397802 395802 392803 389806 386813 384818 381825
      378831 372844 363871 354899 349913 343925 341931 339939
      341941 343941 348938 352933 356927 362914 369902 374890
      380876 385863 389848 393834 396819 398807
 2.00 386843 387838 387836 385835 382834 378840 376846 371858
      367869 363882 361889 361896 362899 364898 367892 374883
      379871 383859 386845 386843

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 510298 507305 503311 501308 500304 499296 497287 494281
      491274 489268 489257 487250 486246 487244 492243 494240
      494236 492230 490226 491220 493219 496221 504231 512242
      519247 524251 526255
 0.01 443630 444640 445647 443664 441679 437696 436703 438715
      440732 440752 437761 402857 392883 381910 373940 370950
      363958 360964 357968 349978 341987 338989 336991 332998
      320016 319025 320033 323039 327043 333046 334052 335056
      333059 331060 327059 323055 316052 303047 292042 288038
      281035 278033 273031 268029 265023 261019 256016 243012
      241007 241999 239990 240985 234976 231971 231965 231957
      233950 234943 238940 244929 245927 244922 242917 238912
      237910 238908 242894 247883 250879 252875 255868 259865
      265857 269853 274849 283841 288837 291833 296828 300822
      312805 316793 317790 318787 316785 311788 300794 296795
      293797 287798 288793 291788 296784 302779 306776 311773
      321768 325763 327757 331746 335734 338727 339720 341715
      344709 351697 363679 369668 377659 393645
 0.01 535223 537210 538197 537185 535182 532180 524178 519183
      517193 518204 520212 522221 525228 529230 532228 535223
 0.01 467699 465697 463698 455703 450706 447709 446715 446720
      443728 443732 445732 450728 455722 458716 463708 465705
      466702 467699
 0.01 477857 477845 475841 473838 471838 469841 467844 466841
      464839 464844 463850 461851 462856 463861 462865 462871
      466878 469878 473872 475868 475862 477857
 0.01 456845 456840 454840 451840 449843 447843 446846 444848
      442851 443856 443858 446858 448858 450855 451852 453850
      455847 456845
 0.01 450826 449819 445812 442808 438806 431807 429812 428815
      428819 432821 434819 437818 442822 446825 450826
 0.01 436864 435864 431862 429862 426860 424860 422862 421863
      421865 423867 424869 428869 431869 433869 436866 436864
 0.01 370055 371052 370052 368052 367051 365050 363049 362049
      361049 360051 359051 358053 357053 357056 357058 359058
      361057 362056 363055 365055 366055 368055 370055 370055
 0.01 322093 320092 319090 315089 313090 309091 307093 305094
      303095 302099 305101 308101 310100 313099 316097 318096
      321095 322093
 0.25 522267 519263 516260 511259 508261 505265 503268 501275
      503280 504284 507288 510286 512282 515277 517275 519275
 0.25 430670 429658 427651 425648 418644 414644 411645 399655
      394660 389667 373699 366712 359727 356735 354744 349763
      343777 335790 334795 335800 342805 343809 344816 346827
      346832 344836 341841 333854 325870 321879 318886 309898
      305904 301912 299920 299925 301929 310942 313950 317957
      322962 325963 330963 335958 341952 351938 359926 366912
      374895 381879 388862 394849 400832 403821 406812 409796
      413777 416757 418745 421735 423728 424718 425708 426698
      429683 430670
 0.50 424677 423665 422659 420655 417653 414652 408654 406657
      401662 398667 392681 385696 380712 375728 370741 364754
      356769 354776 351784 350792 350800 352815 359820 355828
      349840 347846 344855 340871 338882 337891 337900 335907
      331915 327917 323912 318913 316915 314919 314924 319932
      324936 330938 335941 341938 350926 359913 366899 371887
      384856 390843 395828 404793 410761 416724 422692 424677
 1.00 416677 416672 415667 414665 410666 406672 404677 400690
      397703 395711 392718 389730 388738 389748 387755 385761
      378772 375776 372783 372791 374799 382807 385806 387804
      390799 392792 393784 395777 397770 401758 403751 405743
      406729 411699 416677
 1.00 385825 385818 381817 374823 370825 368829 363836 360845
      361852 363855 365861 367862 369860 374853 377846 381836
      385827 385825

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 417638 422640 425640 426644 428650 430659 431668 430673
      429688 425700 423705 419709 413718 408728 402738 398742
      395747 389755 381762 373770 364776 359779 352780 344786
      338796 335801 333807 330818 329823 328826 328831 328839
      327845 326852 324858 319866 313875 313883 311889 308902
      305912 301924 300930 300938 298952 294962 291966 286968
      275972 270974 266977 263981 262989 262996 262000 264003
      264018 263026 261032 260036 256040 251041 244041 238044
      232045 229043 227037 230015 234015 239013 243012 245008
      247004 244000 242996 238994 236991 235987 233983 233977
      232971 231967 227908 231900 234896 238894 246891 251889
      256889 266889 275886 283889 287887 293886 297878 299875
      297872 295872 295869 297859 300849 303840 305828 303823
      299821 290818 278820 268823 265823 264821 261817 260813
      257809 254806 251810 247813 244810 245805 247802 251798
      253794 256791 261790 265787 268783 273778 282773 290767
      293763 295758 300753 308747 316742 320739 324735 327726
      330717 338698 346682 354672 362664
 0.01 569966 567958 564951 561938 556924 550911 548906 544901
      538901 535904 527913 523917 520923 516926 513932 507942
      505950 506958 510970 517981 525989 534996 543000 548001
      550002 550007 549014 552026 555029 560035 563035 564032
      565027 567018 567008 568002
 0.01 541204 544189 546182 547173 550160 552152 553141 550125
      548112 540089 527068 522060 519055 516051 509042 505039
      502039 502041 500047 501053 501060 504067 511092 519114
      526142 527148 526157 523162 519166 516169 514170 513174
      512183 512191 514198 515204 514213 517217 520218 521221
      524227 528239 526244 521244 516240 513236 509232 503230
      499233 497237 500249 498252 496251 490252 499303 502307
      506302 510295 513288 525254 526252 526249 527247 528245
      529242 529240 530237 531235 532232 532230 533227 534227
      534228
 0.01 535714 529701 523693 518695 514699 511702 508708 493723
      480739 474750 471756 470761 467766 466772 463785 460798
      457810 455823 455831 455835 457837 464845 458854 456857
      457861 461862 466861 470863 476863 479866 479871 480877
      481887 484898 486905 488912 490917 494922 497927 500929
      505929 508925 510911 510902 509894 505880 503875 500871
      504863 513859 518856 524855 535854 540853 545850 553845
      557840 557834 556817 555810 554805 553799 552792 550785
      548767
 0.01 445807 443803 442798 441796 438801 436804 433807 430810
      428814 428819 434819 437818 441815 444812 445807
 0.01 436782 436775 435768 434761 433756 430754 426753 424756
      422761 422766 424770 426772 430776 432780 434785 436782
      436782
 0.25 535201 536199 535196 534195 533194 531193 529194 528196
      529199 529200 529202 530203 531204 533204 534203 535202
      535201
 0.25 520269 521264 521261 520256 517255 514254 511255 509256
      508261 508267 509270 509272 510276 513279 516278 517276
      519271 520269
 0.25 409657 408652 404649 399650 395652 390655 387658 382667
      378687 372706 366726 362737 363740 365742 368741 374733
      379725 388708 397691 406672 409664 409657
 0.25 353746 352742 349741 342744 332750 326758 319767 313777
      311784 311790 315793 322791 331783 337775 344766 349755
      353746
 0.25 287929 286925 283923 279924 277925 265931 252934 247938
      246945 245950 243952 240958 238965 241972 245974 249974
      252972 259963 264958 268958 272960 276958 279954 283947
      285941 287929
 0.50 518273 518271 519268 519266 519264 517263 516263 514263
      514264 513266 512268 513270 513271 514273 516274 517274
      518273

$$





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