Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 18/0000 UTC THRU JAN 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST...

IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT THE LINGERING FORMER COMPACT UPPER LOW
THAT BROUGHT THE MULTI-DAY ICE STORM TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY CROSSING NEW ENGLAND AS A SHEARING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING
IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH
WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY AND ACROSS/OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC WED...BEFORE
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAIN CENTER WEDNESDAY. A SWATH OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS NY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...INCLUDING A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE
SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A DEEPER
COLD LAYER THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL.
PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND LOW WRAPPED
MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME GENERALLY LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN. HEAVIER RAINS THOUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND BACK DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND EASTERN TX WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE POOLED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST DOWN ACROSS
SRN/SOUTHEAST TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY WILL STALL OUT AND THE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT
TONIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT WILL ALLOW SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THE MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING A
BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS BY
LATER TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
THE FRONTAL ZONE BECOMING CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH SOME
SLOW-MOVING AND HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST PW
VALUES SHOULD BE ACROSS SRN/SOUTHEAST TX AND WESTERN LA WITH A
POOL OF OVER 1.5 INCH PWS WITH THE AID OF A S/SW LOW LEVEL JET OF
30 TO 40 KTS IN OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT SOME 1-2
INCH AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING
CONVECTION LOCALLY...WITH A MAIN AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF
PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. SOMEWHAT LIGHTER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED UP ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. MAINTAINED GOOD WPC CONTINUITY BUT DID UPGRADE
AMOUNTS A BIT FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM LATEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
THE LATEST NAM CONEST THAT SEEMED A GOOD FIT WITH LATEST RADAR
AXIS/INFLOW TRENDS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NRN CA...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS SPREADING MODERATE RAINS INTO COASTAL
WA/OLYMPIC PENINSULA. PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEEP LAYER WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WA CASCADES AS WELL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
OR COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN WA/NORTHERN OR CASCADES AND THE
COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT AND DOWN ACROSS NRN CA WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVELY LONG-FETCH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT
EXTENDS WELL SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS CONTINUES TO BE CONFIRMED BY CIRA-LPW DATA AND
AMSU 89 GHZ DATA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE AND ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLY STRONGER MOISTURE FLUX AND PW
ANOMALIES AS A RESULT. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF 70 KTS
IS FORECAST WHICH WILL FOSTER 850/700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES
OF 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN...AND PW VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HEAVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAINS ESPECIALLY FOR THE WA/OR/NRN
CA COASTAL RANGES...THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...AND CASCADES...WHERE
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME HEIGHTENED CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

GUIDANCE AGREES IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOWFALL TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS PERIOD. ON THE WINTER
WEATHER FRONT...THE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC RIVER FETCH WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...AND THE MODELS SUPPORT A RATHER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WA/OR. PLEASE AGAIN CONSULT THE
LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS ON EXPECTED WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 419637 424645 427659 427670 430674 433676 444683 450687
      455688 459689 461694 464697 465700 468702 472703 475708
      475745 468751 468757 465760 460769 459779 459786 457790
      454796 447809 442815 439816 435818 433822 432826 428828
      428833 427835 426841 429850 432856 433864 435868 436875
      432878 428879 425879 420877 418876 417869 417862 415858
      412855 408855 403859 397858 395852 395846 396843 402833
      401829 398826 396822 391822 387822 384821 380822 378824
      372830 367838 363845 358852 354858 351866 349869 348875
      349884 353890 356899 358908 358920 357938 355943 346944
      343953 341963 340968 340974 342985 351997 355012 354016
      352020 350027 347034 348040 343045 339049 336056 328058
      321055 318046 316041 312039 309030 306028 301028 297023
      293021 289020 281020 275018 270017 270014 267005 267001
      265999 259994 257990 257982 255972 250970 255962 265950
      272939 281927 286922 290917 289911 291904 299874 298868
      297864 296853 302859 305866 305869 307871 311870 318868
      325864 328861 326857 327852 332848 335845 335841 342840
      345838 346834 349828 352821 360819 370804 374798 383795
      389789 391787 394785 397783 396779 393778 389778 382779
      381770 377774 372777 367782 364787 359789 354788 352785
      349783 344783 341780 339776 335774 327778 324780 321782
      319780 318769 317759 318744 322730 328716 339691 347675
 0.01 535212 536205 536199 535188 532181 528174 525168 520162
      511152 488133 480131 476130 474131 469137 467139 464136
      461136 458139 452143 446144 441139 436133 432135 428140
      426144 425148 425155 423161 419169 415175 410180 410186
      410192 408194 407200 404202 396199 388195 379192 372190
      370192 371194 374200 375204 374208 371209 367209 361208
      356209 353212 350214 350218 354225 356231 358248 359254
      362261 364264 369266 373273 378278 386281 394282 400283
      406286 414290 424293 431292 444290 450290 457293 472298
      481301 485301 489302 496302 500298 509290 514283 517276
      520264 521257 521250 520242 517233 515226 512219 511215
      512209 514207 518208 528216 532217 533215 535212
 0.01 328883 323877 320876 318877 310880 306881 304884 304890
      303893 301901 300905 301909 306905 311900 317896 322890
      327885 328883
 0.25 531197 531192 529187 525180 521174 516169 506163 500159
      497154 493147 492151 494153 489154 481153 474152 469149
      464146 459150 457154 456160 454162 451161 445156 439156
      437159 436164 435173 433179 433184 435191 437200 437204
      435207 430209 424206 418215 404210 396206 389203 384205
      387211 388215 385217 379219 375221 371225 368228 366233
      366243 367251 370257 372260 375262 381264 389267 395270
      403275 412278 420280 427282 434282 440282 451280 458279
      465279 480284 492287 498286 503283 508276 511268 515260
      516255 517249 515240 513234 508220 501204 499198 500193
      501189 504189 506190 510191 513193 517194 519196 522200
      526203 529202 531197
 0.25 485233 486230 485229 484228 482229 483232 484234 485233
 0.25 455740 453725 452719 451711 447704 441697 414672 409673
      404676 401679 396681 392684 387686 383689 380688 379690
      375694 372693 367694 362694 358696 353702 351708 350715
      348725 346733 347747 347754 349759 353768 356771 360769
      365762 368757 370751 370739 369732 370728 374718 379708
      381704 385701 390702 392705 396717 403725 408726 412727
      418732 420738 419742 416744 416748 419752 425758 429760
      434761 438761 442759 449756 452750 455740
 0.25 369822 369817 366819 361823 356830 352835 348840 346844
      345849 345852 347854 352848 356843 361837 364830 368824
      369822
 0.25 345923 345912 344906 342898 339893 335893 333894 329899
      323909 316920 308927 303931 298935 290942 275960 270966
      270970 273975 275978 275982 274988 275991 277993 281994
      293991 299989 304985 311977 317974 321971 327960 340939
      343930 345923
 0.25 342037 341035 339035 337035 336034 335034 333033 332034
      331036 330038 330040 330042 330044 331045 333045 335043
      336043 337042 338041 339040 340039 342037
 0.50 511260 513254 514248 513238 508224 505218 502212 498208
      493205 489200 488194 490190 494186 497179 499176 499172
      496167 493163 487159 480156 474157 469153 465152 463154
      459169 447164 443167 443172 442178 441184 442191 447194
      453196 461190 465189 470191 473193 474196 474201 472204
      467206 462203 458203 454209 450212 426218 423224 419225
      416222 416217 414216 397211 392208 391210 393213 393217
      391220 387223 378228 375237 373247 375254 380259 392264
      405269 422274 434275 445273 455270 462269 468270 480275
      492279 498280 502278 507267 511260
 0.50 517182 516179 513176 511175 508174 505173 502173 502175
      503178 504181 506182 509184 512184 514184 517182
 0.50 487233 488231 487228 485226 484225 484224 483224 482225
      480226 480227 481229 481230 482232 483234 484235 486234
      487233
 0.50 442720 440709 438705 429695 424690 419685 417683 414683
      409688 407703 407709 409713 413716 418721 421728 429738
      429744 430749 432751 436750 438747 438741 437737 437731
      442720
 0.50 364753 364751 363749 363746 363744 362744 361746 360747
      359748 359750 358752 358754 358757 357759 357760 357761
      359761 360761 361759 362758 362757 363755 364754 364753
 0.50 341923 341914 341907 339903 336902 334904 327911 321919
      314927 308933 293945 286953 283956 281960 276971 281978
      280985 285985 291986 295984 302977 306973 310971 317964
      323958 334941 341923
 1.00 510251 511243 510237 507229 504221 500214 492209 486203
      481202 479204 475205 473209 470211 465209 461208 459209
      454214 447216 443216 439217 433221 431224 432228 430231
      426231 416227 413219 410218 407219 402225 387231 385233
      384239 385247 387252 389257 396261 402263 411264 420266
      429267 435266 442264 456258 464257 468258 472259 482265
      489270 495274 501271 503268 504264 504257 510251
 1.00 488236 489234 490232 489229 489226 487224 486224 484223
      483222 481223 480223 479225 479226 479228 480230 481231
      481233 482234 482236 484237 486237 487236 488236
 1.00 482183 483180 483177 483175 483171 484169 484166 485164
      483163 481163 481168 482170 479172 478175 477179 477183
      479185 481185 482183
 1.00 463178 463176 461175 459176 458177 457177 456179 455181
      455183 457184 458184 460183 460182 462181 462180 463178
 1.00 336926 336919 335915 332913 321924 312933 306939 301943
      296947 292952 287958 285966 286972 289974 295970 308966
      315962 319957 327945 331938 334932 336926
 1.50 508245 507238 505232 501222 499217 496214 488208 483206
      479207 475209 472213 468213 463211 456215 452217 446218
      442219 439223 439227 444230 440229 436233 431235 421231
      416230 414226 411222 409222 407225 404229 400230 392235
      390238 389244 391248 393253 398257 402259 412261 420261
      430261 446255 461250 468251 474253 483258 490264 493267
      498269 501264 499258 496247 491240 482237 477225 477222
      479221 483221 488223 490227 492237 496243 500245 505247
      508245
 1.50 468230 469228 468226 467226 466227 465229 466230 468230
      468230
 1.50 332926 332921 329920 325924 316930 310939 301945 297950
      294956 291960 290964 291968 296967 301965 307963 312961
      316957 319952 325943 328937 330932 332926
 2.00 502241 504238 503235 502230 500222 498219 495216 489211
      483208 477210 475213 475217 481218 488221 491224 492228
      494236 500241 502241
 2.00 497263 497257 496253 493247 490242 485240 482238 480234
      477229 474228 472229 468232 464231 460233 454232 448232
      442234 437236 433238 427236 421233 414230 411229 409230
      405233 399235 396236 394239 394243 395246 398250 403255
      410258 421258 427257 432255 441251 452249 461245 468245
      475247 481249 486254 491260 494264 497263
 2.00 470220 470217 468215 463213 459215 456216 452220 448220
      444220 445225 448226 452225 455226 459228 463227 466224
      469221 470220
 2.00 328928 322928 314934 308943 302949 296958 294962 294966
      303962 311958 315954 317949 319945 322941 327932 328928
 3.00 499235 500232 499230 499227 498224 498223 496221 494222
      494223 493225 493228 494229 494230 495233 496234 498235
      499235
 3.00 489216 489215 488213 487213 486212 486213 484213 483214
      484215 485216 487217 489216 489216
 3.00 480241 480239 479236 479235 478233 478232 476231 475230
      473231 473232 472233 471236 471238 472239 473241 474242
      475243 476243 477243 478243 480241
 3.00 465239 467237 466234 464233 464234 463236 463238 463239
      465239 465239
 3.00 463223 464221 463218 463217 461217 460218 459218 457219
      456219 456221 457223 458224 460225 462225 463223
 3.00 450239 451237 449236 448236 446238 447240 449240 450239
 3.00 446240 445240 445238 444237 442236 441236 439238 439241
      440242 442242 443242 445240 446240
 3.00 431248 430243 428240 423236 420235 416235 413238 411245
      412248 414250 417252 421251 424251 429250 431248
 3.00 402244 400244 402244 402244
 3.00 305958 305957 305956 303955 302956 301958 303959 305958
      305958
 4.00 478238 478235 477235 476232 474233 473234 473237 474238
      475240 477239 478238
 4.00 462221 462220 461220 460220 459222 460223 461223 462221
      462221
 4.00 426244 427242 426241 425239 424239 423238 421238 420238
      419239 418239 418242 418244 419245 420245 422246 423246
      425245 426244

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