Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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435
FXUS04 KWBC 191904
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 20/0000 UTC THRU JUL 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...NORTHERN PLAINS / UPPER MIDWEST...

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
AND AXES OF HEAVIER QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE NAM AND WRF-ARW/NMMB
ALL PRODUCE HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI...WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE GFS AND THE NSSL-WRF.  DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE
AT LEAST PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE EVOLUTION OF ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE GFS AND NSSL-WRF INTENSIFY ONGOING
CONVECTION AS IT DROPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF HEAVY AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...NORTHEASTERN IA INTO NORTHWESTERN IL.  THIS
WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER TO THE NORTH.  THE NAM AND WRF-ARW/NMMB WEAKEN THE ONGOING
CONVECTION MORE QUICKLY AND ARE LESS BULLISH REDEVELOPING
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND DEEPER
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO HEAVY AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND THE NSSL-WRF APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...THE WPC QPF LEANS CLOSER TO THEIR
SOLUTIONS.  FURTHERMORE THE NAM LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE WITH ITS 70
KT 850 INFLOW WITH 2.25+ INCH PWS INTO CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT
APPEARS OVERDONE.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROADER SCALE
TROUGH...CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WESTERN NY/PA
THU AFTERNOON EVENING.  THIS ENERGY INTERACTING WITH STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AN AXIS OF DEEP WESTERLY INFLOW...ALONG
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVY RAINS...WITH SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING LOCALLY
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY.

...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL ENERGY DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS AZ NORTHWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGH
PW ANOMALIES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PEREIRA

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 533190 535176 536161 536155 535149 533144 531143 528140
      525139 520138 517139 511139 508140 503142 498147 492153
      490157 489165 488177 488188 490198 489204 486207 481212
      476212 473213 469212 465214 456214 451217 452223 456224
      460227 459232 456234 448234 441237 435242 434245 439247
      445252 454255 464257 474260 480261 488260 496262 499261
      503258 508253 512244 513240 516235 520229 525220 530205
      532194 533190
 0.01 513996 513991 510993 507995 502995 500998 497998 495000
      491006 478019 470025 461030 453034 442032 439029 438023
      436017 437012 441000 445992 448988 451987 457987 460986
      466979 467974 468965 468950 470941 473937 475929 474919
      473914 469889 465864 463854 464841 464836 464828 463821
      461814 459807 459799 460794 458788 456774 455769 453762
      452759 452755 454752 458745 459740 461735 466728 479710
      489691 494682 495677 494669 492663 489658 485656 481657
      477662 469668 460671 458672 458674 459683 461688 461693
      458702 448717 446722 443726 436728 432732 431736 436735
      443734 443737 442743 437745 432746 428744 425740 424733
      426728 425722 422718 418719 416729 414739 412744 413752
      414766 414775 409802 406810 405815 401819 395824 388829
      382835 376840 373842 375848 378850 383852 388850 392848
      397847 401850 405859 407863 403866 401871 400877 400886
      403897 405908 414931 416940 417955 417980 417998 416005
      413010 408021 405030 404037 403041 402045 400044 399041
      397040 394039 391041 389044 388049 384053 377053 379056
      380057 378060 369063 367061 368059 370055 372053 367052
      357051 354058 357061 358064 360069 364072 370078 374089
      375092 373093 369090 363083 355078 348064 341056 334053
      327051 322048 315043 312040 308038 302037 297037 294042
      296047 300051 304053 309059 309065 305065 300063 301060
      301057 300056 296052 289049 285047 280047 275054 272054
      269053 266051 261051 256052 252050 248052 244056 242060
      246062 252069 258075 265079 270084 272088 273094 280102
      285110 290116 297121 305126 321129 328123 335124 344132
      347135 353136 359137 362140 362144 360147 356149 356153
      360156 369153 382153 387152 390150 395150 399149 403147
      405144 406137 405133
 0.01 405133 402129 405124 409122 415121 418119 424118 427122
      430121 434119 439118 448116 455096 454090 451087 444086
      441081 443077 446076 448078 450073 453069 456066 461063
      467064 470061 473056 475051 482042 493023 506009 511003
      513996
 0.01 499939 500929 500919 499909 498898 495883 491871 487864
      485866 482882 481889 478897 478905 478914 485924 492934
      494940 496943 498942 499939
 0.01 404792 389785 386783 384785 382792 384795 387796 387800
      383802 378805 374811 369817 365818 363820 351826 346831
      344834 344838 343846 339852 330861 333866 334869 337869
      343869 348865 354862 357863 360862 363855 365847 359835
      360832 365829 369829 372825 376818 378815 383814 387815
      388820 389823 391816 394807 397802 404792
 0.01 353775 353766 349769 347772 346773 344772 342770 340768
      341765 346761 348757 348752 346750 343749 338753 334747
      332746 329746 315753 302759 292765 280772 274774 265777
      251782 244785 239789 237795 236801 237810 239820 243826
      250828 256829 262830 260835 262840 270841 271844 272850
      273869 274888 275904 281919 284925 288931 293935 291941
      288955 284971 284979 290974 296963 301952 303945 305941
      305936 305924 306914 306907 308901 311886 314869 317852
      323840 327836 333833 337832 338830 338820 348794 351783
      353775
 0.01 336165 332163 329161 324159 321156 315156 312154 308153
      310156 314159 318161 321164 326165 330166 334165 336165
 0.01 316809 315807 313807 311807 309807 307806 305806 304806
      302807 301808 302809 304810 306810 308811 310811 311811
      313811 315810 316809
 0.01 257006 258000 256996 253993 250990 247988 242986 238987
      236991 236997 238000 242003 245006 249007 253009 256007
      257006
 0.25 466917 465906 464899 462890 461877 458869 457865 456860
      456852 456842 455832 454824 450803 448795 445788 439773
      436765 433759 429753 426751 423754 422763 422773 422782
      420790 416803 415812 414815 416816 423802 426803 427807
      429814 432832 433843 432847 429851 426853 423853 419847
      412838 410835 406834 405836 407845 411852 425874 429868
      432869 433871 437878 438883 437887 434892 427892 420889
      415886 413886 410888 409895 410903 413913 418928 423942
      426950 428958 428966 428979 427990 427000 430000 432997
      435992 438984 439977 444973 451974 456975 459972 460962
      461948 464931 466917
 0.25 441105 439100 438096 435093 431091 429091 428094 428101
      425104 425108 429108 433107 437105 440105 441105
 0.25 420067 420065 419063 418062 418061 416062 415062 414062
      412062 411063 410066 410068 412070 413070 415069 417068
      419067 420067
 0.25 411108 411099 410095 408093 400102 397102 394105 393108
      391109 384108 381107 378109 374114 371120 371125 372128
      374134 379139 382141 386142 391138 390134 389132 381129
      384124 389120 395118 400115 403113 407113 411108
 0.25 354120 352116 349112 343107 345103 345097 342089 337082
      332080 330083 333091 333097 334103 337106 341107 345116
      352121 354120
 0.25 328111 329105 327102 322093 318086 311081 294073 286070
      281063 277062 272061 264058 261059 260062 264070 270076
      275083 277092 283098 293112 300117 305118 310118 315119
      320118 326113 328111
 0.25 305831 300824 294818 290817 289812 287807 286802 293797
      296794 297790 295786 290785 281785 272788 264792 257796
      250802 249806 251811 257816 264821 272824 286832 283827
      288825 294825 301829 303832 305831
 0.25 303842 303840 303838 301840 300840 299842 299844 299846
      301845 302844 303844 303842
 0.25 298929 298926 297925 297924 296922 295921 295920 294918
      293918 292916 292915 290915 289916 288918 288920 289922
      290924 290925 290927 292929 294930 296930 297929 298929
 0.50 462915 462906 459896 456887 454876 453868 452862 450857
      448855 444855 441856 439858 439864 440868 442877 443890
      444901 445907 443913 441914 438912 431900 424897 417895
      413895 412902 414910 416918 419926 426941 428949 431959
      431965 431972 430983 445966 451970 454966 454961 454951
      452942 451936 450933 451933 453937 455940 458938 460930
      462915
 0.50 451843 452838 451832 449821 446805 442798 439791 434775
      432767 429762 427759 426764 426772 428788 430795 432804
      433813 436821 438830 440837 445842 447844 451844 451843
 0.50 408105 409103 409101 409098 408097 407098 407100 407103
      407105 407106 408105
 0.50 396112 394112 392113 391113 389114 387115 385115 387116
      388116 390116 391116 392116 394115 395115 396113 396112
 0.50 382115 381115 380114 380115 381115 382115
 0.50 318114 320110 319106 317101 314096 309097 305093 308089
      306084 301080 290079 282073 279073 280076 283082 282093
      289102 296111 300114 305114 309113 313115 318114
 0.50 280807 279801 279796 275795 271796 264797 259799 254802
      252806 256811 260814 264817 268817 268814 269812 273811
      280809 280807
 1.00 454903 454901 454898 455896 454894 453891 452889 451888
      449889 449891 448894 448896 448899 450901 451903 451904
      453904 454903
 1.00 449959 449949 448942 446935 443928 437918 430909 429902
      422900 417900 415905 416912 419919 421924 425928 428933
      430940 434954 437960 442957 446959 449959
 1.00 312109 311108 311107 310106 309104 308104 307104 307106
      308107 310108 311109 312109
 1.00 303108 304104 302101 299099 298097 296094 295093 291094
      290096 292098 293100 294102 295105 297107 300109 303108
 1.00 270804 269802 268801 266801 265801 263801 261802 259802
      258803 258805 260805 261806 263806 265806 267805 269805
      270804 270804
 1.50 442940 442933 440928 435921 430914 427910 427906 428904
      426903 420903 417906 417910 421919 428925 431935 434945
      435949 438952 440949 442940
 2.00 437937 438933 436929 435926 434923 432921 430919 429919
      429922 431926 433928 433933 435935 435940 436940 437937
 2.00 426916 426914 425912 424910 422910 421912 422914 422915
      423916 424917 426916 426916

$$





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