Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 27/1200 UTC THRU NOV 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A MID/UPEPR LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL PIVOT SLOWLY SE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PAC
NW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITHIN THE ELONGATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT
(WCB). 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FLUX ANOMALIES PEAK BETWEEN
2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE SREF/GEFS ACROSS THE
PAC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.00"
INTO THE NRN CA/SRN OR COASTAL RANGES ALONG THE MOISTURE
RIBBON/ELONGATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WHICH EXTENDS WELL INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND WAA FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WCB WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN
(WA) CASCADES. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO ADVANCE INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH PORTIONS OF THE BITTERROOTS SEEING LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WPC QPF LEANED BIT MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE
HIGH RES ECMWF/GFS OUTPUT WITH ADDED EMPHASIS INCORPORATING THE
NAM CONEST...WRF-ARW...AND RGEM GIVEN STRONGER
DETAILING/RESOLUTION INVOLVING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAXIMUM
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (ABOVE 3 INCHES) ARE EXPECTED IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR SWRN OR AND NWRN CA...AGAIN ALONG THE AXIS OF
HIGHEST PWAT.


...LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING EAST COAST STORM...A WELL-DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/VORT LOBE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND TN
VALLEY EARLY THIS AM EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC LATER
TODAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE VERY MODEST IN THE WAKE OF
THE CURRENT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST COAST...BUT SUFFICIENT
DYNAMICS ALOFT COUPLED WITH REASONABLY STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (7-8C BETWEEN 700-500 MB) SHOULD FOSTER NUMEROUS RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN INVOLVING THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN/WESTERN NC
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST VA AND EASTERN WV. TOTAL ADDITIONAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN .10 AND
.25 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS IN
ERN TN/WRN NC.


...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM VORT WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL
FOSTER NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...INCLUDING SOME LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW
FOR ESP THE U.P. OF MI WHERE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE NOTED AS THE VORT CROSSES.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

A STREAK OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM FOR AREAS OF
NORTHEAST MT AND CENTRAL/WESTERN ND. THE MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE DETACHMENT FROM ANY DEEPER MOISTURE/STRONG
FORCING.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 424648 440632 454621 491612 507643 506655 504665 499675
      489691 484698 478704 472706 467709 463711 460716 453723
      447719 447697 446690 443687 439685 435685 433689 432694
      435711 435718 431719 423716 409713 405721 403725 398727
      383728 384740 384752 384761 387765 389769 393773 395777
      396781 395786 397788 399787 409784 418778 421775 422770
      420766 422762 423758 421756 419753 417748 416742 422735
      424734 426740 431739 436740 439743 442749 443755 442760
      440772 439779 438784 434792 434795 437794 440793 444793
      446797 450801 453803 463807 467814 470826 471830 473832
      476835 476845 474850 476855 478859 479864 483874 486889
      487896 489903 490907 491915 494926 496937 501960 504973
      506979 508984 510993 512998 515004 521025 528044 532058
      536068 537073 539077 544086 546092 553119 553178 539228
      534250 525286 512299 495298 493299 485295 481288 472275
      470272 468275 461271 457266 453259 449251 445250 442251
      433262 428267 423271 418276 413283 407287 403287 401289
      394291 386288 375284 370279 374274 384260 391244 392241
      395238 398236 402236 406232 408221 412216 416216 419219
      421202 425201 428199 428193 426189 432176 427170 425166
      426162 429161 430156 432145 434142 436137 440132 443132
      446135 448137 450134 453130 455129 459132 462130 474122
      483124 487129 492133 495135 499137 501136 503133 500123
      498119 495115 490110 485104 482097 480091 478087 478082
      477077 474074 469075 467080 466085 465084 461078 457075
      455071 452066 449058 449053 451051 455051 460050 461047
      462042 459034 459024 459010 456003 456991 457981 459980
      458977 455974 452970 448966 445961 443957 438945 441942
      443939 442936 436928 431924 431917 430902 431900 433899
      438899 444899 449900 456901 460903 462905 465903 465898
      463890 462880 462876 461874 460866 457862 453861 445868
      439873 434874 429873 423873 418871 414867 411861 410856
      409850 411837 413835 415836 418841 423850 426853 431854
      436855 441853 446843 446840 444837 441832 425820 420819
      417823 414828 411826 407824 402825 399823 397821 396817
      400813 405812 409811 410808 410803 408799 402799 399802
      394810 391815 386815 384814 381815 378819 373827 371832
      369837 368843 366849 364854 360860 357864 356869 356876
      352877 347868 345861 347856 355851 362843 363841 363837
      359838 357840 350847 346846 346840 351830 362814 367810
      366806 364805 360805 358797 357781 357777 355774 354766
      348757 342753 337753 333755 329758 323763 321751 320744
      321737 323732 325728 334720 338716 344712 352708 358706
      365705 372706 377709 380705 385696 388693 391688 399679
      413661 418654 424648
 0.01 482193 483188 482186 478180 475175 470176 466182 463186
      458190 456192 455196 457199 460201 464205 467205 469203
      474199 477196 482193
 0.01 455103 450094 448096 447094 441093 439092 436094 433096
      429092 426089 427093 429097 435106 435108 433109 437111
      439111 442113 443118 447118 448121 449121 451119 450116
      452115 451113 452108 454105 455103
 0.25 483615 491619 494623 496628 497636 496642 494649 492653
      485661 480664 474665 465664 461660 460654 463643 467633
      473624 478617 483615
 0.25 525260 522233 524227 529223 536216 540207 543193 544183
      545173 547156 547146 548138 547131 546125 542113 538109
      536100 533090 529079 519058 515048 510037 505025 502021
      499017 495015 493015 493023 490026 488033 486036 486041
      488053 490060 492064 497074 502084 508096 512105 517116
      517122 516131 515139 512143 501142 498141 494138 487131
      482127 477127 471128 469136 467140 463142 455149 451148
      447149 441148 438147 437149 437156 440161 444165 446170
      449172 452171 455166 458160 462161 466166 469168 474167
      477171 482178 490183 493187 496193 493196 488198 477200
      473203 469208 465209 460209 457212 453213 448214 444214
      426212 424217 422222 423226 421229 417232 412234 409241
      403247 397257 393267 393280 394285 399285 407280 415272
      442244 451244 462248 467252 471256 479262 490281 493286
      497289 502291 506291 512286 516281 525260
 0.25 490234 488232 487230 485227 482225 481224 479223 476223
      472223 472226 475226 479227 481229 483232 485233 488234
      490234
 0.25 484151 483149 481150 479149 479150 481150 482152 484151
 0.25 452826 451823 449820 447817 446814 444812 442811 438811
      435813 435816 436818 438820 440822 442825 443827 446829
      448830 452828 452826
 0.25 428707 428705 427702 427703 425703 424706 425708 426708
      428708 428707
 0.25 433771 433768 433766 432766 431767 430769 430771 431773
      432775 433773 433772 433771
 0.25 365724 363719 361718 357719 354721 350725 346728 341732
      339738 343741 349741 354738 359734 362729 365724
 0.50 542184 542175 543161 541140 532130 529135 526142 523150
      520152 516152 509149 503145 496144 492137 488133 481129
      475130 472134 472138 473140 477141 481141 485143 488149
      493155 492160 490160 487159 484156 476156 472158 473161
      476164 481168 484174 493178 503182 511195 519207 520210
      523211 528214 531213 534211 538205 540193 542184
 0.50 521263 521259 520253 516243 513232 509225 504216 499208
      492204 484202 478203 474205 472209 465212 458215 449217
      440215 432216 428217 425220 425225 426229 423233 419233
      416235 413238 411244 409247 404254 401259 399265 399270
      398276 398279 401280 409276 415269 427257 432252 438243
      442237 451241 460244 470248 477253 481256 484260 493276
      499283 503285 507284 521263
 0.50 491237 490230 488226 478222 473222 469223 465227 461228
      457226 452225 448228 444229 441233 443235 446235 455233
      461233 464230 473228 476228 479229 483234 489237 491237
 0.50 451161 451158 449157 448158 447158 448158 448160 449161
      451162 451161
 1.00 534195 534188 533182 532174 529170 520165 517161 512158
      511164 509168 499167 495171 499173 504176 507180 510185
      512189 519197 522202 526206 531204 534198 534195
 1.00 516262 515253 512245 510236 505229 499215 497211 494210
      486206 482205 479206 476207 474211 472214 468215 467218
      470218 478220 484223 490224 492227 493233 496239 500246
      508260 513264 516262
 1.00 507277 505269 503265 498255 495250 493244 489240 486238
      482237 480232 477230 474231 469233 466235 464237 465240
      470243 474245 484250 491260 496270 499274 503278 507277
 1.00 492171 492170 492168 491167 489167 488170 489170 491171
      492171 492171
 1.00 493145 492141 490139 489136 486133 484133 481132 479133
      476133 475136 477137 480138 484139 486141 488144 490146
      493145
 1.00 463223 464221 464219 463217 461217 460218 459218 457219
      456219 456221 457223 458224 460224 462224 463223
 1.00 447224 448221 446220 442218 436220 430220 427222 428226
      429230 429233 427235 423235 418237 415243 408258 405266
      404270 404275 409272 414267 422258 431248 435241 434235
      438228 443225 447224
 1.50 512255 509243 507237 504234 500222 494213 489211 485207
      479208 476211 474213 476217 480219 485221 490220 492225
      493230 496237 499241 505250 507255 511257 512255
 1.50 505273 504270 502267 500261 496257 494251 491245 487241
      485240 483245 487251 490256 494261 497266 499271 502274
      505273
 1.50 480244 481242 481239 480237 480236 479234 478233 478232
      476231 474232 473233 471233 470235 470236 470238 471240
      473241 474242 475242 476243 478244 480244 480244
 1.50 428247 430243 429240 426237 423237 418239 415246 413252
      410259 408267 411266 415262 420257 424254 427249 428247
 2.00 508251 507245 506240 503236 501233 500227 498222 495219
      493225 494230 496235 499240 502242 505246 507251 508251
 2.00 499263 497262 497263 499264 499263
 2.00 492253 491250 491249 490247 489247 488247 488249 489250
      490252 490253 492253
 2.00 487218 487215 486213 486211 485210 484209 483209 481209
      479209 478210 477211 476212 476215 477215 478216 480217
      481218 483219 484220 485220 487218 487218
 2.00 479241 480239 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234 472236
      472237 473239 474239 475240 476241 478242 479241
 2.00 428245 428241 426239 424239 421239 419240 417244 416249
      415253 417254 420252 422251 424249 427247 428245
 3.00 424244 424243 422241 421241 419242 420245 421245 422245
      424244 424244

$$





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