Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 261901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 27/0000 UTC THRU MAR 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

EASTERN SEABOARD INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE
ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF---INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MS VALLEY---TO A POSITION FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/EASTERN GULF
COASTAL REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  ABOVE AVERAGE
PW VALUES WILL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BE PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON---SAVE FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE IT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL HELP FOCUS THE HEAVIER QPF
TOTALS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1.  THE LEAD WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT ONE
PRECIP MAX ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED TROF OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A SECOND SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC--WITH A SECOND PRECIP MAX FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
DELMARVA.  THE LAST PRECIP MAX EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH
FLORIDA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.  MOIST
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RAISE
PW VALUES TO 1.5-0-1.75" ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT---SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.


MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY

NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION
DAY 1.  LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY---ALONG AND ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS---SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF LIGHT
PRECIP TOTALS HERE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

NO CHANGES FOR MOST OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD FROM THE RECENT PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA THAT HAS SUPPORTED THE
BEST ONSHORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TARGETED INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
WESTERN B.C.  TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD--NORTHEAST
PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE APPROACHING THE PAC NW
COAST---FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE INLAND
MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS
WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON LATE DAY
1---CONTINUING INTO DAY 2 WHERE IT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S.

DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY TEMPER THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS-UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND.  THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO HAMPER ITS ASSOCIATED
AMOUNTS...THUS FAVORING THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM REGARDING QPF.
 HOWEVER...THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH ARE
UNCLEAR...WITH NEARLY EQUAL PROBABILITIES FOR A FASTER/WEAKER
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z GFS...AND FOR A SLOWER/STRONGER
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH ITS STRUCTURE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW UNIFIED THE PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS AS IT NEARS
THE WEST COAST.  HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM WITH ITS SOLUTION NEAR THE
FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERED LEAST PROBABLE AT THIS
TIME...AND SO WAS NOT USED.

...EASTERN U.S....

HAVE REMAINED QUITE CLOSE TO CONTINUITY AND AN INTERMEDIATE
POSITION INVOLVING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCES FROM
THE SPLITTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.  WHILE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED...SOME SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 12Z GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN
THE CONSENSUS DUE TO FASTER ARRIVAL OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 00Z
ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN ARE STRONGER DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND POSSIBLE
GREATER INFLUENCES.  THUS...CURRENT QPF VALUES ARE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.1 INCHES BUT COULD BE HIGHER OR LOWER ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST DEPENDING IN WHICH OUTCOME PREVAILS.  CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH SPREAD AND SHORT WAVELENGTH OF
THE TROUGH.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC/JAMES

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 469620 472626 473632 472646 471657 470667 469679 466689
      463700 460711 457720 452732 451737 452744 450753 442769
      439780 438787 437792 432800 429805 425808 420815 417816
      413816 414806 416797 417793 415791 413795 408803 402811
      396820 386833 381841 374848 363861 357867 352870 348872
      341876 333879 325883 321885 317886 311887 307886 306885
      288881 268875 247862 241853 235835 235815 237811 240803
      243794 250788 257783 266778 281769 312751 321746 330740
      342730 370704 383692 390686 395680 401673 410666 423654
      436632
 0.01 521272 533225 534220 536212 539204 539197 536192 532184
      531179 528175 524168 522164 519162 514167 511169 510175
      511178 515179 517180 519183 521188 524198 524203 523208
      521216 520219 518226 515231 511230 509227 501220 496218
      492221 491224 490230 491235 480233 476231 473232 469234
      464233 450238 448242 448248 446256 447261 455266 462269
      479279 483287 489293 497297 504296 511292 516284
 0.01 522039 523028 520020 516016 512013 510010 509007 508004
      510001 512999 516997 517994 515991 512986 507983 502980
      497980 491977 483976 474971 462966 457968 451969 436968
      429968 426968 424970 424975 428978 431978 435980 440985
      442986 441990 436987 429987 422985 415984 410982 405986
      403989 403994 404997 406006 408011 413015 416017 421018
      423016 429007 431004 434004 440005 449011 454015 448019
      442021 440024 436030 436035 437039 443048 446053 454054
      459052 462049 459043 455038 462033 466031 469031 477032
      481035 482040 484045 488050 493054 497059 505068 513074
      515072 516067 515060 513053 512048 515046 519043 522039
 0.01 500248 500245 499242 498242 497241 496242 497243 497245
      498245 499248 500248
 0.01 472897 470895 468895 467895 466895 465898 465900 465903
      465905 467906 468905 469905 470903 470902 470900 472898
      472897
 0.01 470880 470878 469877 468877 466876 466875 464876 463878
      461878 461879 462881 463881 464881 466881 468881 469881
      470880
 0.01 464829 463818 463814 461810 458802 456796 453794 450794
      444797 439801 436806 433812 430821 419827 421830 428831
      434834 440835 445839 448840 449845 450848 453849 456847
      462834 464829
 0.01 428876 428871 427869 424868 421867 419867 416867 412868
      410868 410870 412875 414877 416877 419877 423877 426876
      428876
 0.01 416966 415959 413954 409944 403935 401930 396928 393924
      389922 385919 382916 375909 371907 364907 350916 346919
      346925 348931 350934 357943 361943 363938 364936 367936
      370939 375948 378953 382956 387957 390954 392953 394956
      396961 398966 401970 406971 411971 414971 414969 416966
 0.25 518271 520264 520258 518249 515242 511236 503232 497229
      495230 495234 499240 502249 504257 500256 499254 494248
      488242 485242 483247 483254 484258 486267 490273 495280
      499285 502287 506289 510287 511284 513279 515277 518271
 0.25 458662 458655 456650 453648 449648 442653 435659 429664
      424672 419681 408701 406709 409715 414721 416721 419722
      424721 431716 437711 443706 448699 454682 456673 458663
      458662
 0.25 394717 393713 389713 379716 366723 351732 340741 318760
      294780 288783 279786 271785 265788 255801 248812 245819
      243829 243833 244836 249840 254844 261846 271853 282865
      289867 292866 293863 295854 298845 302838 302836 295835
      287834 285832 287828 297821 321818 329816 334813 338812
      341814 341824 341843 344849 341852 339856 338860 338863
      345860 351855 356850 366839 377827 382821 385816 389809
      390803 385804 380807 379803 379800 383793 387784 389776
      391773 389767 389762 385761 381762 380757 386741 391729
      394717
 0.50 517270 519260 518252 515245 512241 506237 502238 501241
      503246 505255 507261 509267 512273 517270
 0.50 508283 508278 507274 506269 504263 500258 495252 491249
      489250 488254 488262 491268 494273 498278 502283 507285
      508283
 0.50 382784 382780 380778 377776 372777 368779 366780 366777
      368773 372761 373755 372750 371744 367739 358738 354739
      348743 340748 333755 327762 324767 322769 324773 328775
      328779 328792 328795 330797 334800 342799 348802 355804
      360801 365799 368796 371792 377789 381786 382784
 0.50 359832 358831 357832 356832 355835 354837 355838 356837
      357836 358834 359834 359832
 0.50 281830 284825 284817 281812 276808 271804 264801 257803
      254811 252816 249829 250832 253838 258841 265842 270839
      275836 281830
 1.00 514266 515262 515256 514253 512250 511248 510245 508243
      506242 505244 505247 506251 506256 508259 509262 510264
      512267 514266
 1.00 505279 505273 504268 502264 499261 496256 494252 492252
      491255 491261 493266 495270 497273 500277 502279 505279
      505279
 1.50 512260 511258 511257 510255 509254 509253 508251 507250
      507251 508253 508256 509259 510259 511261 512260
 1.50 502275 503271 502267 500265 499263 497260 495257 493256
      492258 493261 495264 496268 498270 499272 501275 502275

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 522264 521255 521245 523235 527229 531223 535215 537209
      536200 538193 539187 538184 533173 531166 527160 523155
      519149 516142 515132 515126 517120 519114 527104 529101
      531096 534088 536080 536070 537060 536053 536045 528044
      522044 519043 515040 513019 516001 518991 519981 520976
      520972 517965 514960 510965 508972 505976 493998 488003
      482007 476019 476024 477029 477037 480041 482043 487048
      489055 486062 484067 483070 480072 481089 480094 479097
      475101 472111 477115 488124 495135 492135 489132 485128
      479126 471125 467120 466116 468114 469112 470108 466105
      464102 464097 465087 468080 469068 470045 469036 466031
      463029 460036 460041 458045 457050 455053 452067 450069
      446069 439069 436071 437077 442078 444081 448087 447092
      443093 438090 436092 433092 426091 428095 429098 429101
      428104 424105 423105 422110 422115 426115 429117 427122
      431123 435121 441121 443128 445136 445141 442144 438148
      437153 437157 438161 440164 443171 442175 440178 436181
      431184 426185 418196 415199 412204 415208 417210 418213
      416216 414215 412219 413229 412234 410237 408239 406244
      406249 408251 410254 413255 420258 426259 432259 438259
      445260 455259 461258 463258 466260 466266 466270 463279
      459287 458292 459297 461299 466299 469297 470300 470303
      467315 469320 471325 478328 483325 489314 492309 496303
      499300 503298 510296
 0.01 486194 483192 480191 476190 473191 468191 463192 459197
      456204 457209 459207 462208 465207 469203 475203 479199
      484196 486194
 0.01 487975 487967 486964 483960 480959 472954 466951 454945
      442940 425934 409930 389912 385909 382906 376903 371898
      368894 366890 362884 359878 355872 350866 338857 332852
      329850 324850 323851 324854 325857 328865 329868 330872
      330883 332893 336900 342905 346912 353926 357934 354936
      350938 348941 348947 350951 359963 366977 369983 375988
      378988 383990 389995 390984 403989 407989 407986 403979
      401977 398974 391970 386965 378963 365958 363950 363945
      364941 368943 371943 376947 394951 399951 402954 407959
      412962 417964 426966 431967 434969 441972 449975 464980
      466981 470982 477982 481980 484980 487975
 0.01 454735 452732 448731 440733 433730 428728 428724 430721
      433716 434711 433704 430697 426696 424693 426685 433673
      439663 436660 439653 440644 440638 439638 423643 415647
      410652 399660 388669 377676 367683 357689 349695 342699
      330707 319714 307724 299731 292736 287740 268754 247772
      241785 237789 235796 230809 230825 233829 238830 243829
      250827 255826 259824 261818 260807 261803 263801 269796
      278795 294793 300790 304786 309783 316781 319783 320785
      326788 332790 334792 335798 336810 339818 343824 345825
      347823 352820 356815 360808 362804 361799 361794 364791
      369787 381784 373776 370771 369766 367764 371756 376751
      381745 383743 386742 385754 387757 386760 383762 379764
      380765 388776 390781 390786 390791 388793 380801 371808
      368812 365815 361820 353833 352836 353839 358838 363833
      365830 368829 374830 377823 377816 382816 386810 391806
      395805 396814 397818 399824 402831 407836 412840 418839
      414835 413832 410828 407820 406801 411797 411805 412807
      415807 421806 429798 431793 434791 436787 437783 437775
      431771 424770 420765 418762 415760 410754 413746 416741
      421735 424730 437743 449741 454735
 0.01 418078 419067 417064 415064 412067 411071 411077 409080
      408091 406095 406100 405112 408112 410110 410103 412094
      414085 417081 418078
 0.01 386196 384195 383193 381192 379192 378191 378192 377194
      379195 381195 383196 384196 386196 386196
 0.25 531205 531201 529198 529188 529180 527172 526168 523166
      518164 514166 510163 499156 493155 489158 468145 464142
      460142 456145 452152 452157 453159 458165 459168 458172
      454176 451181 450192 452194 454191 458187 462183 464177
      464174 466171 471169 476169 481173 486177 496182 502182
      507186 515195 520200 525203 528207 531205
 0.25 515277 517265 516254 512239 509230 505223 496211 489208
      482207 470212 458218 453221 456222 460225 482223 487225
      489228 494235 501248 501253 498253 493247 489241 482238
      479234 477233 474232 471233 468237 469240 473245 479250
      482258 481275 481280 483284 487291 493292 499291 505289
      510286 513282 515277
 0.25 492147 492144 490141 489137 487135 485133 483132 479131
      478132 476137 479138 481140 483142 486143 488146 490148
      492147
 0.25 456105 456103 455101 453101 452102 453104 454105 454106
      456105
 0.25 423672 420662 417660 414662 409664 397674 387682 382687
      379693 376707 354723 349727 343732 336741 330746 334752
      340751 344746 349742 351745 353744 362736 373726 383719
      391707 399698 403692 406685 408683 411682 416686 420680
      423672
 0.25 245805 244803 241802 239804 238806 236810 235812 235814
      235818 235822 237824 238824 240821 241819 242816 243813
      244811 245807 245805
 0.50 524184 524183 524182 523179 522181 521183 520183 519185
      519186 520187 522187 523187 524185 524184
 0.50 524171 522170 521173 522174 523173 524171
 0.50 512255 512249 510244 509238 508235 502228 498219 495214
      491212 485211 482211 479216 481219 489224 495231 499240
      504249 508257 512255
 0.50 504284 505274 506270 505266 501261 497258 496254 491248
      486246 486256 487264 489273 494280 499285 503286 504284
 0.50 479238 477237 475237 475238 477240 478241 479238
 0.50 475159 475156 473153 471151 469150 466147 464146 463149
      462151 462156 463158 465160 468161 471161 473160 475159
 1.00 494223 493220 493219 492217 490215 489215 487215 486218
      487218 488219 490220 491221 492222 493223 494223

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 559894 558871 558861 555857 546848 543843 538839 536837
      534837 530840 521847 520849 517848 516838 516828 516819
      515797 511796 507798 492802 479804 474807 467808 451811
      442815 434821 428826 423829 415835 412837 409838 403843
      393849 374862 372891 369907 368910 369913 373916 378920
      383922 387927 393929 398927 402927 402931 402938 403946
      409956 412961 416964 421966 424966 427964 433964 437962
      442961 444968 447986 447996 446003 442021 440028 436030
      428037 426039 425042 425048 426049 433058 433067 433071
      434073 446081 449085 450088 450092 441096 437098 432095
      429092 427093 429096 431097 432102 433110 441112 444118
      448121 452117 454115 458114 470116 475119 480118 484118
      484115 481112 478107 473101 472095 469090 464092 461091
      459088 458081 456075 448062 455053 462042 468033 471019
      476014 479012 482013 487015 492016 494015 496017 494024
      491033 488041 493051 495054 498054 504055 510056 514053
      523047 528042 531037 534033 536027 540019 542013 545994
      547982 547973 548952 551938 553933 555925 557918 558915
      558909 559894
 0.01 534223 536213 536206 536197 535190 534184 531180 524171
      520169 517172 514173 511172 507169 504171 504176 506182
      509186 512191 514197 517201 520207 525217 527221 532223
      534223
 0.01 521269 524255 523247 521242 519236 516230 512226 510221
      507216 503211 493206 489206 482205 476205 473206 470212
      469217 470219 474224 475227 470229 465231 462235 461240
      467244 470248 473253 474260 476266 478272 483283 485297
      489302 493303 497301 501297 508289 519276
 0.01 430699 429694 426692 418690 412689 402691 398693 395696
      389701 383707 381716 380726 379734 381738 384740 388741
      390744 396749 400749 404748 407746 409742 406736 404730
      406726 413720 414710 416705 418703 426704 430699
 0.01 417071 416064 414061 408065 406070 406077 407082 407086
      406093 408100 408093 409084 409079 411075 415073 417071
 0.01 399204 396200 391197 386193 380190 375186 373186 372188
      372193 374193 377194 382198 387203 391204 394203 398204
      399204
 0.01 398113 396112 394112 391113 388114 385114 383115 381117
      379119 380121 382122 384121 387120 390119 392117 394115
      396115 398113
 0.01 401076 400071 396071 394064 391067 387067 380069 374072
      372079 375085 378087 380086 383083 386082 389084 391082
      397078 401076
 0.01 337865 337860 335854 334850 332843 328835 324829 318828
      316825 314825 313828 313832 313845 316856 318860 322862
      326870 328874 332875 335871 336867 337865
 0.25 530202 530200 530197 529194 528192 526192 525193 525195
      526198 526201 527202 528204 530202
 0.25 518271 519264 520258 517249 511231 506223 500218 493213
      488211 484212 482214 482219 487226 488230 487232 484234
      480232 475232 472235 472239 473243 481258 486266 490273
      494280 498283 502285 514276 518271
 0.25 535944 536936 536930 535914 534904 530894 525888 519884
      512879 506877 499873 494866 490865 486865 481869 469882
      464888 463896 463906 463909 466909 471909 475908 476911
      475914 473922 472927 472931 471940 469946 466950 465954
      464959 464962 468966 473965 481964 483960 483954 483947
      484943 486938 488934 491932 496930 498932 499937 497947
      494956 492960 491963 492967 494969 497971 506970 514968
      521966 527963 532953 535944
 0.25 475847 473844 469842 464843 461844 456847 453849 450853
      449858 453859 458858 462856 467855 470853 474850 475847
 0.25 463920 463918 462916 460918 461920 462922 463920
 0.50 516270 517264 517259 515251 512242 510233 509230 506226
      501222 493217 487215 487218 488221 490229 490238 482237
      478235 476236 475241 476245 480251 484258 489264 492271
      497278 501280 505279 509275 515272 516270
 1.00 513263 511260 512257 512252 511249 505234 498229 495228
      493233 495237 497242 501248 503255 504260 503261 498254
      494248 488242 481242 481246 483250 487256 491263 494270
      499274 504270 507267 510265 513263
 1.50 500269 499263 498259 495254 494251 491247 487246 486248
      488254 490257 492262 495266 498270 500269
 1.50 502243 501241 500240 499238 499237 498236 497237 497238
      498240 499240 500241 502243 502243
 2.00 496262 496260 496259 496257 495256 494254 493253 492252
      490251 489252 490254 490255 491257 492258 493260 494261
      494262 495263 496262

$$





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