Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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237
FXUS04 KWBC 210604
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 21/1200 UTC THRU JUL 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN PLAIN/UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY...

A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE RAIN EVENT WILL LIKELY UNFOLD ACRS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH POTNL FOR FLASH FLOODING
ESPECIALLY LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.  A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN NWD IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EWD ACRS
THE ERN DAKOTAS.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE STG MSTR
TRANSPORT INTO AND NORTH OF THE BNDRY WITH PWS FCST TO INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 2 TO 2.25 INCHES.  FORECAST LIS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN -8 TO -10 DURING PEAK
HEATING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID EXPANSION OF CONVECTION ONCE
CAP IS BROKEN. PATRN WILL GENLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF CELL TRAINING
WITH MID/UPR FLOW GENLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT.  THUS..POTNL
WILL EXIST FOR RATHER WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3+" RAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 6 INCHES.  GENL TRENDS OF THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES HAVE
SHOWN A SUBTLE SHIFT NWD TO THE MAIN PCPN AXIS.  IN THE CASE OF
THE GFS...IT IS A MUCH FARTHER N SOLN AND APPEARS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER SOLN AT THIS TIME.  MOST OF THE 00Z HI RES RUNS..REMAIN ON
THE SRN SIDE OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND ARE GENERALLY
PREFERRED..WITH THE WRF ARW AND NAM CONEST GIVEN MORE WEIGHT.
OVERALL GIVEN THE SLIGHT NWD TRENDS IN THE MODELS...MANUAL QPF
HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS SLIGHTLY NWD FROM CONTINUITY.
STILL WITH THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN AXIS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER AREAS
THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED SOME RECENT HEAVY RAINS...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
MUCH OF SE MN..NE IA INTO SRN WI AND EXTREME NRN IL IN A MODERATE
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SEWD FROM EARLY MORNING COMPLEX ACRS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE CNTL APLCNS THIS AFTN.
WHILE NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS..NONE THE
LESS..STG INSTABILITY AND MDTLY HI MSTR COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS EWD INTO PARTS OF THE CNTL APLCNS FRI/FRI NIGHT AND
ISOLD FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.   A WEAK 7H WAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN ASSOCD COLD FRONT FRI AFTN.  STG
INSTABILITY DVLPG AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU NRN MN WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SOME INTENSE CONVECTION..BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH
DEEPER MSTR FOCUSING TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE VERY INTENSE AMOUNTS
FORECAST BY THE GFS APPEAR OVERDONE..BUT STILL COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN GIVEN EXPECTED
HIGH INSTABILITIES FRI AFTN/EVENING.

...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...

SOME SUBTLE DRYING IS EXPECTED THROUGH PARTS OF THE GT BASIN AS
WLYS TAKE A SLIGHT DIP SWD ACRS THE WEST COAST..HOWEVER FOR MUCH
OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION...PATRN WILL REMAIN MUCH THE SAME WITH
AREA WELL ENTRENCHED IN MONSOONAL CIRCULATION AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE CNTL PLAINS/MID
MS VALLEY.  THE HIGH MSTR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBDD
WEAK VORTS/MCVS ROTATING WITHIN THE WEAK ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WILL SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH
THE POTNL FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACRS BURN SCAR AREAS AND
NEAR STEEPER TERRAIN.  A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND HREF GUIDANCE WAS
GENLY FOLLOWED.

...GULF COAST...SE..FL...

DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHWERS/TSTMS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL ACRS MUCH OF
THE GULF COAST REGION EWD INTO FL AND COASTAL SE WITH SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PROVIDING THE MAIN TRIGGERS
FOR DVLPMENT.  FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION BUT OVERALL LACK OF WELL ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY.  CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS WAS LOW ACRS THIS AREA AND
THEREFORE WAS CONSERVATIVE WITH AMOUNTS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 544025 543014 541002 536980 533970 529960 524950 522946
      518942 514938 507935 496928 480921 475916 474909 474902
      473888 473881 471876 471870 469866 467861 465858 463858
      460856 460849 458841 457832 456820 453815 451812 449811
      442810 434808 429809 426812 421813 418814 410811 405808
      402805 402801 407794 410790 409788 402786 398784 396780
      390775 387772 386768 387765 388760 388753 387746 382747
      378752 374758 370766 368774 365782 365787 364793 358810
      351825 348832 347838 347844 348851 350852 356846 364838
      369833 372833 372838 374849 378866 380878 384884 395897
      400903 406908 413914 416921 417928 417936 416951 414963
      411974 407992 404998 402007 404012 403018 400026 396027
      393030 387037 381042 373045 366049 363050 358050 352050
      349052 344051 340049 329046 320041 316041 313039 307037
      301037 299036 297038 295040 296044 301050 303052 300057
      286059 283061 278061 267059 246058 242059 239062 240066
      243070 245074 248077 256083 270092 278095 281098 282102
      285108 291111 304119 311119 314120 318119 325116 329114
      334115 341121 347128 358130 369131 378131 383128 389123
      394119 399114 408112 413108 418102 423094 423088 422082
      423070 423063 423058 414039 412034 411032 412027 416019
      420011 426004 428000 430996 430990 432986 440986 444988
      445993 447002 453004 469010 481019 488027 494034 497038
      500041 507047 509049 511053 514064 516070 518072 521073
      526065 529063 534064 537062 538057 540052 541046 544025
 0.01 520258 517243 515238 517233 517228 516225 513220 504213
      501209 495207 491208 489213 487223 490228 491233 491236
      488234 476230 474233 473242 474249 472259 469276 470278
      470283 468291 470297 473295 483289 486294 488299 490306
      493308 501301 505298 508293 514282 520258
 0.01 494674 491666 489662 486659 481653 477650 469634 466633
      462635 460641 456649 452656 445668 442674 449672 453676
      455682 455688 454696 452700 451705 446711 444713 444717
      445720 443722 440725 431728 428728 427731 428736 429735
      438732 442732 441737 437743 433749 434759 441757 450746
      459734 466721 469714 474706 479701 483695 491685 493679
      494674
 0.01 404838 404836 403834 402832 401830 400830 399828 398830
      397832 397835 397837 398838 400838 402839 404840 404838
 0.01 360765 359759 357759 353765 348772 344781 341787 335792
      331797 327803 324806 321809 314813 309813 305811 297807
      291805 287803 287800 299794 309782 311778 312773 308772
      304771 300772 296771 288772 281774 273774 263775 258776
      255778 250784 244791 243793 243798 246806 249813 251822
      252833 251842 248851 246861 243875 243895 248913 251921
      253931 261945 268954 272961 273972 273978 276978 279975
      281978 285979 288977 294973 298969 301961 309947 311943
      315941 323945 327945 329944 334939 337932 338928 337925
      335923 334920 334914 333902 335892 334878 334868 333862
      332859 331850 329846 328840 328828 330820 332815 335811
      340804 354778 360765
 0.25 513263 514257 514253 511246 505233 500227 498225 496228
      497239 500245 503251 506258 506261 504264 499259 493248
      489245 486246 484248 483252 484260 488267 492273 495275
      499276 505274 507267 513263
 0.25 533997 533990 532986 528978 524971 518965 514960 510954
      497948 494950 492953 490957 489962 484959 476956 474954
      474948 475944 473940 469940 466942 462943 459943 457938
      456927 455901 453891 451884 445868 436853 433843 432839
      427838 421837 416834 412833 411835 413843 411852 412863
      413869 412875 410875 408873 405869 403868 400870 400876
      403884 407892 411898 415905 422923 424930 425936 425942
      423951 421959 415974 412984 411989 411996 411001 413003
      415004 417001 425987 426977 429968 433960 437961 440964
      446962 448960 450963 451973 452983 453989 455991 458993
      461993 478997 482000 486002 491001 496005 501010 504026
      509034 514040 517042 521043 525042 526039 527028 526018
      526011 529008 533997
 0.25 477674 478671 476669 475669 473669 473670 472672 471673
      471676 471678 471680 471681 472683 473684 475682 476679
      477676 477675 477674
 0.25 410103 411101 410098 410097 408096 408095 408096 406097
      406098 405100 405102 406104 406105 407105 408105 409105
      410103
 0.25 410066 412061 411056 407053 402049 397047 390047 387052
      387056 386060 382065 376066 373066 372068 373076 374082
      375086 377088 382085 384085 385088 387084 389079 393083
      397083 399081 402076 405072 408072 410068 410066
 0.25 391810 391803 389799 386797 383800 377805 373813 373820
      375823 380832 382841 388847 390844 391838 391826 391812
      391810
 0.25 384117 383116 381116 381117 379119 381120 382119 383119
      384117
 0.25 382786 380786 379787 378787 376788 375790 375792 377793
      379792 380791 380790 381789 382786 382786
 0.25 369122 368121 367120 365119 363119 361119 360120 361123
      363124 364124 366125 367124 368123 369122
 0.25 367068 366067 364065 362064 360064 359064 358065 357067
      358069 358070 360070 362070 364070 366068 367068
 0.25 356120 354115 348110 345106 345096 346092 350090 355088
      356072 345077 332077 326080 319081 313080 316079 317075
      316073 311068 300070 294068 287070 277073 280078 283080
      284084 287089 291094 296095 301093 303097 303101 307107
      311113 321108 326105 332103 336106 340111 343115 347118
      352121 356120
 0.25 323870 323867 320865 313864 310860 308854 305849 304857
      306873 306882 306890 305897 303903 302905 302910 302912
      306912 310908 313911 315906 316898 318883 322872 323870
 0.25 289791 288787 285786 283785 280786 278786 274787 271788
      269790 266792 268795 271795 273795 277795 281795 283794
      286793 289791
 0.25 285812 282808 276806 272803 267802 261803 258805 259809
      262813 269813 272818 277821 281820 283817 283813 285812
 0.50 510249 509248 508246 508245 507242 507243 507245 508247
      508248 509250 510249
 0.50 525997 522989 521986 523982 523978 522973 519971 515972
      511978 505982 500985 499992 500997 505003 510006 513007
      516004 518001 521000 525997
 0.50 516025 516024 514024 514025 516027 516025
 0.50 512019 511018 510017 509016 509017 510019 511020 512019
 0.50 486987 486969 483965 479964 474961 471957 469950 466948
      462953 460958 458963 457967 458971 460977 462977 463974
      464966 467962 470964 471970 472976 477978 481982 484987
      486987
 0.50 452940 451906 448892 446884 444880 438868 433857 430852
      427847 419841 416844 415854 415861 416870 418879 417884
      415885 407879 414893 417898 419905 424916 428930 429945
      430949 431951 437953 441955 445954 448951 450947 452940
 0.50 422985 421983 421981 421978 423975 422973 421970 419973
      418975 417977 415981 414984 414989 416991 419992 420989
      422987 422985
 0.50 404056 402053 397052 393053 390057 388061 386065 387070
      390074 395075 400074 401071 396069 399064 401060 404057
      404056
 0.50 388813 387808 387805 384806 383809 382812 380814 379816
      379819 381823 382825 385826 386823 387820 388815 388813
 0.50 380080 380078 380076 379075 378075 377076 377078 377080
      378080 379081 380080
 0.50 352117 351115 350115 349114 347112 346110 345109 344107
      343105 341107 341109 342111 344113 344114 345115 347116
      348116 349117 350119 352117
 0.50 352084 352082 351082 350081 348081 347081 345083 346085
      347085 348086 349086 350085 352085 352084
 0.50 342098 343094 342089 342087 341085 339082 336082 337086
      337089 337091 335095 336099 338101 340100 342098
 0.50 305087 305085 305084 303082 301082 300082 299082 298084
      299086 300088 300089 301089 302088 304088 305087
 1.00 448925 449919 448915 446911 446906 442887 441882 438878
      434873 429856 427852 423852 420858 420870 421879 422898
      426907 428916 432933 433943 436946 440945 446942 448938
      448933 448925
 1.00 395062 395061 394059 393058 392059 391060 390061 390063
      390066 391067 392066 393066 394064 395062 395062
 1.50 443930 444920 444915 443911 441897 439887 437883 431871
      429862 426859 424860 423865 424874 424893 428907 431923
      435936 438940 442937 443930
 2.00 442918 441911 440904 437892 433880 429866 428862 427867
      425873 426881 427896 429902 430909 433923 436933 438933
      440929 441923 442918
 3.00 438921 438918 438916 438915 438914 437911 436910 435909
      434909 434911 434914 435916 436918 436920 437921 438921
      438921
 3.00 432895 432893 431892 430892 430893 432895 432896 432895
 3.00 430883 430881 430878 430876 429878 430881 430883 430885
      430883

$$





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