Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 28/0000 UTC THRU MAY 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CENTRAL INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG THIS AXIS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY EMERGING FROM A
BROADER SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WEST.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BEGIN FIRING THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING NEAR A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ITS CORRESPONDING POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.  WHILE DIFFERING IN THE DETAILS...MANY OF THE
HI-RES MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO
THE WESTERN KS...WITH CELLS PROPAGATING EASTWARD.  THESE STORMS
MAY BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM-CONEST..GEM REGIONAL AND THE
HRW-NMMB...GIVING GREATER DEFERENCE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODELS.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION/TN VALLEY....

ALREADY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE REMNANT SQUALL LINE NOW DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LA-MS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CONVECTION AS IT
BEGINS TO APPROACH AND THEN MERGE WITH A PAIR OF RESIDUAL
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SUPPORTED BY THE ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE
AFFORDED BY THE ASSOCIATED MCV...THE HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE HRW-ARW/NMMB AND THE CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL SHOW
HEAVY RAINS CENTERING ALONG THE NORTHERN MS/AL BORDER INTO WESTERN
TN.  WPC QPF FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THESE MODELS...DISCOUNTING THE
GLOBAL MODELS WHICH PERFORMED POORLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL.

...CENTRAL-EASTERN TX INTO SOUTHERN OK...

HAVE LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM CONEST AND THE NSSL WRF WHICH
REDEVELOP HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WHILE SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A RESIDUAL
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY AS IT RETURNS TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY ALONG
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SUSPECT THAT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS
THOSE MODELS ARE SHOWING ARE OVERDONE.  EXPECT THAT THE SUBSIDENCE
AND CAPPING INVERSION IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
REDEVELOPMENT HEAVY AMOUNTS. WPC AMOUNTS REFLECT A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL.

...OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST...

EXPECT TWO AXES OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
REGION...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THIS
EVENING.  THE SECOND IS EXPECTED FURTHER TO THE WEST...CLOSER TO
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.  WITH THE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WPC QPF FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES-PLAINS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...PHASING WITH AN AMPLIFYING SYSTEM
OVER CENTRAL CANADA.  LIGHT-MODERATE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
EARLY THU....WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE THU ALONG
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.  HERE ALSO...WPC AMOUNTS REFLECT A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE.

PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 473619 482639 484643 487641 490638 492637 494638 497642
      499657 502660 506667 512674 517682 518690 518694 518702
      517708 518721 517736 518750 516762 515771 513780 512787
      510794 505801 494817 491822 489830 488836 485843 484849
      484857 482859 480855 475848 471838 469831 468825 467810
      468799 464797 460798 457796 454799 452809 444815 440813
      438811 434808 431811 425818 414835 402855 398863 392871
      390875 388879 391889 400901 406908 412914 419919 424928
      426933 429937 433938 436935 443930 450921 455908 456901
      454896 449887 447882 448878 450872 455872 465872 474871
      478871 481874 487877 494880 500880 506877 512873 521869
      525868 528869 534868 537871 540885 540895 539904 537917
      535928 531939 529945 527951 525963 523975 521984 517994
      518997 521996 527004 529008 529016 527030 523041 519052
      513061 506071 502075 502080 498092 498098 500098 507093
      510094 512097 515100 515104 518115 520122 521129 522135
      524139 529150 533158 537169 541179 539186 537187 534185
      531184 528185 528192 533203 530204 527204 521204 518201
      512194 508194 506196 503199 500200 495205 488208 484210
      480213 473217 468218 465215 465211 469209 476204 480203
      482198 486191 485184 483177 480173 471167 468163 464161
      461158 459156 456157 446156 444157 442154 438146 437141
      438134 439130 439122 437120 434122 431124 428127 423136
      418135 416132 413129 411129 410133 410140 412143 413142
      417145 420155 427163 432169 421165 416168 409161 402164
      394161 386166 381172 378171
 0.01 354047 338039 327038 321039 318041 315042 310043 309045
      307044 300045 291043 288042 283041 273040 269038 270035
      274033 275031 270026 270017 270013 272011 276008 276004
      286003 290003 293001 296997 297991 297987 302985 304983
      304979 302973 296958 293950 294939 294927 294915 293906
      295904 295899 296891 296887 298884 300883 300880 298877
      294870 289862 287858 287853 287848 290847 295844 303844
      307844 312843 319840 324835 337822 344809 349804 356803
      359799 362797 369793 374785 375780 373776 367779 360783
      355786 347787 343785 345782 348775 352766 360761 373755
      385747 396735 407721 412714 414712 418710 425698 433683
      439675 443666 450652 456639 464622
 0.01 477041 477039 476037 476035 474035 473036 472039 471041
      470041 469043 470045 472046 473046 475044 477041
 0.01 472952 470947 467942 464942 461945 457947 454949 450952
      447954 447959 452959 455957 460956 464954 469954 472952
 0.01 456845 455842 451840 447836 441831 438829 434830 429833
      426836 425841 424845 426848 431852 438856 445856 450853
      455847 456845
 0.01 439060 440051 440047 438045 435041 431040 429033 429025
      433014 434008 429006 427002 425000 422000 416001 417006
      420010 421017 425021 425027 427042 430053 437060 439060
 0.01 426758 426754 424751 422747 418747 415750 411756 404764
      402767 401772 399777 399780 401783 397788 397792 400790
      403788 409782 414776 420768 425760 426758
 0.01 371030 370026 369023 368021 365021 363023 361025 359027
      357029 355031 353033 357035 360034 362034 366034 368032
      371030
 0.01 372893 372882 371873 369865 367861 364863 355871 345878
      339882 338889 334904 330910 329913 330915 341923 346927
      351923 362918 368914 369907 371902 371897 372893
 0.01 347991 347986 345984 341981 335978 330977 328978 327982
      327990 327999 327007 331007 336005 341002 345998 347991
 0.01 260819 257817 252816 250812 249808 245806 239807 237810
      236814 238818 240821 243823 247825 252824 256822 259820
      260819
 0.25 298029 297029 295029 297030 298029
 0.25 531896 530890 529886 526886 517892 510896 507898 503903
      499912 494924 492935 490947 489954 487959 486965 486971
      483975 480979 476987 474992 471994 469989 465986 463984
      459986 453991 446997 443003 442010 438020 439024 444025
      447029 449031 452030 461031 464022 467018 471016 475014
      478014 487020 494038 498051 503057 507046 510035 512020
      511011 510003 512988 513978 517965 520952 526928 528919
      529910 531896
 0.25 517159 516154 514151 510146 505145 502142 498136 495133
      491133 487134 486136 487138 490141 491145 495151 498151
      501150 506151 512155 517159
 0.25 503741 502734 499731 494730 491732 488737 486742 482753
      479759 478764 477772 478780 479789 481794 483796 486795
      490792 495781 499770 502757 503743 503741
 0.25 495678 494671 492667 490662 489659 487658 481663 479665
      477664 475662 472659 471654 471648 471643 468643 466645
      462652 454670 447683 436698 433706 429712 416719 412725
      410733 406742 405748 409747 415743 419738 424730 431723
      438719 445717 448718 453717 456715 458716 460721 463730
      467737 473740 476739 481738 483734 484730 485720 479699
      480690 483684 486677 488673 490673 493679 495678
 0.25 473111 473107 472102 469095 466089 463089 461091 456093
      453093 450091 448087 444087 440088 438091 435097 436100
      439099 443096 447096 447101 444106 442110 443113 445118
      449126 452130 457136 460136 462134 470125 471120 471115
      473111
 0.25 461084 459079 457074 455069 453066 450066 445066 442067
      441072 444077 446080 449085 452087 457087 461084
 0.25 431776 428777 424779 422784 419787 415788 412791 409801
      405810 405816 405822 408824 411821 416815 421808 425798
      427788 430778 431776
 0.25 424117 425115 424114 422113 421113 419113 417113 416113
      415114 415113 414113 412112 411113 412115 412117 413118
      415119 417119 418119 420119 421119 422118 424118 424117
 0.25 424968 426963 425959 423954 419949 414945 410942 409936
      407931 404926 396919 392915 389910 383900 381898 379899
      377904 376911 373918 367928 364932 362937 367936 371935
      377934 382935 386940 388946 387952 385956 379965 375968
      370971 366975 362980 349994 350000 348006 346014 347016
      351016 355014 358011 362008 364006 367007 372010 377011
      385013 389013 392012 395014 397018 403026 404032 406039
      410052 409060 406063 403069 404074 410074 414071 416062
      415056 417040 416024 415018 410015 408012 407009 407000
      407992 409987 412983 417981 421979 423975 424968
 0.25 380768 378768 376766 373765 370764 368763 365763 363765
      361767 364769 365769 369769 373769 376769 378769 380768
 0.25 359843 356832 358823 359819 357819 352821 345825 341828
      338832 334840 330844 326846 318851 309851 305854 304859
      304864 305869 307880 309886 311891 315893 317896 321899
      325896 330889 335880 339873 349868 351865 353859 354854
      356850 359843
 0.25 350974 348968 343965 330963 325960 322956 320949 320941
      318934 316929 314927 312929 310937 309944 310952 310959
      312965 315971 319973 326973 332972 339973 344975 350974
 0.25 320016 321007 320999 319994 317991 314992 311997 308002
      306008 302012 300015 301019 307020 312023 317020 320016
 0.50 522926 521918 520913 515909 512908 507910 505913 502921
      501926 500942 499957 500963 503967 507972 510969 514957
      518944 521931 522926
 0.50 503024 503016 501011 501006 503001 505995 503990 500991
      497993 491987 487986 484987 481992 479997 480004 483007
      491010 495012 497016 498023 501025 503024
 0.50 473678 471667 468664 467659 465660 462664 455674 448685
      443696 436707 435710 433714 435715 441711 449709 453703
      456698 460694 465690 469690 471687 472680 473678
 0.50 465104 464102 462100 458100 455100 453101 452105 453107
      454112 455114 457112 459111 462109 464107 465104
 0.50 462016 461009 459006 456002 453000 450002 448005 446011
      444014 444019 449022 452024 457023 460020 462016
 0.50 452080 451078 450075 448073 447072 446072 446075 447077
      448078 449080 450080 451081 452080
 0.50 419731 423726 423724 420726 418729 416730 416731 415733
      414734 413735 413737 412738 412739 412740 414739 415737
      416736 417735 418733 418732 419731
 0.50 418963 417957 415953 408949 403948 398949 393955 383970
      382975 378974 371976 367979 364982 359989 356992 354996
      360001 377008 381009 385010 386008 389006 394005 399014
      400016 402015 403009 404994 405984 407979 411975 416969
      418963
 0.50 413036 414033 414031 414029 414026 413024 413022 412022
      411020 409020 407021 407022 407024 407026 407027 407028
      407031 407033 407035 408038 408039 410039 412038 413036
 0.50 403933 398926 393921 387915 382906 381905 379907 379913
      376922 374928 377930 386929 389931 391936 393940 396941
      400939 403936 403933
 0.50 353846 350844 347844 343843 339844 334848 328850 322853
      317857 310858 307861 308867 312870 316870 318872 320879
      321889 324891 325889 333878 337872 341869 348865 349863
      349860 347855 351850 353846
 1.00 467674 465673 461674 459677 457679 455680 454683 452686
      451689 452692 455691 458689 460688 462686 464683 465680
      466677 467674
 1.00 455015 455013 454012 453010 451012 450012 450015 450017
      451018 453018 454017 454016 455015
 1.00 409970 408968 407964 405961 403960 402958 398958 396959
      395961 393964 392968 395969 398969 401970 403972 405973
      407973 409970
 1.00 382983 381981 378985 376985 373982 369983 366987 364992
      365997 369999 373002 376004 381004 381997 380990 382984
      382983
 1.00 345862 340860 336856 329856 326857 324859 323866 323873
      323879 325882 327881 331876 335871 339868 344864 345862
 1.50 376997 376996 376994 375992 375990 374990 373988 371988
      370990 369990 369992 369994 369995 370996 371997 373998
      373999 374000 376999 376998 376997
 1.50 340865 337865 335863 331862 328863 326865 326868 325872
      325876 325877 327878 328877 330875 332872 334870 335868
      337866 340865

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