Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 261849
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 27/0000 UTC THRU AUG 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...EASTERN CO THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A QUASI-STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT..SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS ORGANIZED AND ENHANCED
CONVECTION..ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST.  ONGOING CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF LOWER MI AND
NORTHERN IND SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EAST INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION UNDER A LESS FAVORABLE AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL
JET..BUT EXPECT CONVECTION TO RE-FIRE TUESDAY NIGHT FROM NEB INTO
IA AGAIN AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS TO 20-30 KTS..BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND LEADING TO POOLING OF PWS TO 1.75-2 INCHES INT
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.  THE MODEL QPFS WERE IN REASONABLY
DECENT AGREEMENT ON AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS FROM PARTS OF NEB
INTO WESTERN IA..THOUGH AS IS QUITE OFTEN THE CASE..THERE REMAIN
SOME LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AXIS WILL SET UP.   EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS..BUT AS IS THE CASE WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN
NE..ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.   BACK IN
EASTERN CO..THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS INTO THE
TUESDAY MORNING HOURS AND BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING..WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME BETTER
MOISTURE AND STILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING TIME
OF BETTER HEATING..LEADING TO SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS.

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING AS THE TROUGH IN THE WEST MOVES OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
RESTRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO FEED MOISTURE INTO AN
AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER...WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...

SOUTHERLY INFLOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIRLY ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE VALUES EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS AZ/NM THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  THIS MOISTURE...INTERACTING WITH STRONG UPPER
FORCING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
FURTHER EAST AS WELL.  MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO HAMPER THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW EVENING.  HOWEVER PRIOR TO THAT...RATHER
WIDESPREAD AREAL AVERAGE RAINS OF 0.50-1.00+ INCHES LIKELY..BUT
WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN..WHICH IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.

...WESTERN GULF COAST...

THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THRU THE WESTERN GULF
COAST STATES THIS PERIOD..BRINGING THE SLUG OF HIGHER PWS ABOVE 2
INCHES WITH IT AS WELL AS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO ESPECIALLY THE MID AND UPPER TX COAST.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED RAINS MOVING INTO THE TX COASTAL REGION..WITH SOME
0.50+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINS LIKELY..BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED
HEAVIER TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE.

PEREIRA


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 492708 490702 487698 479700 481684 479665 475659 473662
      470662 466666 464671 461680 458688 454695 450704 448707
      444710 442717 438721 435722 434721 432714 437707 442700
      446691 447688 446684 446681 446678 444679 440685 434691
      423705 417712 414715 413719 409734 406743 403750 404775
      396791 393798 390806 388816 386823 384834 382844 380849
      379854 378863 379887 376904 375918 377925 386940 393956
      397963 395970 390977 383983 368988 364989 360991 355997
      350001 345005 336021 332029 325033 320036 314036 309036
      306036 305042 303049 308055 311058 308059 304063 299062
      290063 277070 268070 264070 263072 259080 264086 266089
      269091 277095 280097 285098 293100 295109 300112 303112
      305115 310121 323131 334133 340137 353145 359146 362144
      367142 371143 376144 380146 389148 396146 400146 403149
      407154 414160 416159 419156 421152 422146 422140 421135
      419127 418124 420122 422119 426113 428109 431106 433107
      442109 443107 442102 444098 447095 447094 444091 442086
      441081 444078 448078 450076 451070 452066 454061 455056
      452046 448039 445015 448006 448996 450990 447983 443974
      440966 437961 436957 434946 430926 424909 423898 424889
      425879 426872 431871 436871 439869 443863 446858 450856
      455852 460843 460841 457839 452834 445828 443823 444819
      445809 445796 445791 447788 459776 461773 462768 467759
      471752 476746 481741 485735 488728 490722 492708
 0.01 460729 463722 461721 458723 454730 452733 452734 450736
      450738 451740 452739 454737 458732 460729
 0.01 431835 431833 433827 429830 429831 428833 428834 427836
      426837 425838 425840 424841 423842 422844 421845 420846
      422848 423848 425846 425845 426843 427843 428841 428840
      430838 431835
 0.01 372880 372869 368862 366859 365854 365843 359845 356850
      353854 353857 351861 351866 352888 350897 348903 344912
      342919 343928 346928 348925 353919 357912 363898 366891
      370885 372880
 0.01 341124 340115 339107 337100 335096 333093 328089 325086
      323089 323094 326096 329101 326103 328106 327116 326119
      326123 335125 338127 341125 341124
 0.01 311996 312990 310988 306985 303983 297983 295985 295991
      296996 297002 300002 304001 308000 311996 311996
 0.01 306812 300808 293806 279800 272796 269795 264796 254797
      247800 243807 241815 240819 241823 243828 247828 253823
      254814 260816 266821 268824 271824 276820 279811 286815
      295816 300816 304815 306812
 0.01 310939 309921 307903 307892 308885 308874 306867 300863
      298856 294849 289847 283850 281853 280857 279875 278882
      274888 267900 259910 256911 254914 253921 253931 254939
      255958 256966 255973 255978 257980 261984 268987 272986
      274985 285979 296971 305960 307956 309950 310939
 0.25 443005 444997 443990 441987 438984 436980 435973 434963
      432953 429943 425934 422926 417916 413909 411905 411899
      411888 413877 413871 412865 405860 404852 402848 399846
      396847 394851 393863 392872 392879 394884 397894 400913
      395917 393917 387914 382915 383920 387932 400953 403963
      402968 398976 393984 389989 378001 366012 363016 363021
      358030 355040 351044 347048 344049 335050 327053 324056
      325061 330068 325073 326076 329079 333081 337079 338075
      341071 347065 350063 354062 361063 367057 371057 374058
      377061 377067 373073 372078 374082 377085 381086 391087
      398086 402089 403093 400103 394109 394114 399115 402118
      404118 408116 414111 419104 421080 420069 422066 425065
      429063 432059 434051 438042 440037 440032 438015 443005
 0.25 427812 426811 424810 423810 421810 419811 417812 416814
      415816 414819 415821 416823 417823 418823 420822 421820
      422820 423818 424817 425816 426815 426814 427812
 0.25 419754 420749 418745 418740 419735 415735 412739 408745
      406750 407758 409766 412771 415769 416767 418760 419754
 0.25 365123 364119 363114 363108 360107 357109 353112 350115
      348119 350123 351127 353131 358132 361130 363125 365123
 0.25 310083 310079 309076 306074 302072 295069 287072 282074
      274077 270081 273086 280089 289091 297090 304088 308087
      310084 310083
 0.25 302884 302880 301876 299874 297873 296874 292876 291879
      289881 289885 288887 289889 293890 296889 298889 301886
      302884
 0.25 300952 301947 299943 299935 298925 297917 294912 290911
      286912 282916 279918 275918 269920 265925 264941 265958
      265963 266966 271970 278971 282972 286970 291967 295962
      298956 300952
 0.25 247821 247819 247817 247815 246813 245812 245813 244814
      244815 244817 244819 244821 244822 246822 247821
 0.50 438004 438998 436995 433990 431985 431980 432971 431960
      429952 423937 415923 410918 406919 404922 403932 405940
      407949 408959 407965 405968 401975 394987 386000 384003
      384009 383014 381017 376021 370025 364030 363033 365036
      378035 386033 391036 395044 399049 402052 406052 415053
      418052 422052 425051 428049 432043 435035 436030 436026
      436017 437009 438004
 0.50 416753 416750 416748 416745 414744 413745 412746 412749
      411749 411751 410754 411756 411758 411760 413762 414760
      414759 415757 415755 416753 416753
 0.50 413106 413104 412103 411102 410101 409100 409098 408097
      407098 407100 406102 406105 405106 405107 404109 404111
      405112 407112 408111 410110 412108 412107 413106
 0.50 409882 410875 409868 405871 404876 402880 401887 402894
      403899 404902 406901 407896 408891 409884 409882
 0.50 357122 357120 356118 355120 355122 357122 357122
 0.50 345061 346059 345057 344057 343056 341054 340054 339054
      338056 339058 340058 340061 341063 340065 341065 342064
      344063 345061
 0.50 301080 296078 293077 289078 284078 280080 279084 282086
      284086 288083 290081 294081 298082 301080
 0.50 296947 297933 295920 292915 289915 287916 281923 271927
      269932 269939 270954 269961 271963 274964 283967 287965
      290962 294957 295952 296947
 1.00 431030 432023 432016 430011 427014 425018 422022 421027
      419031 419036 420039 422040 427039 429036 431031 431030
 1.00 427008 427998 427985 428972 427965 427959 424949 421940
      418933 412928 409929 406932 407937 409942 411951 411963
      408972 404979 401988 400991 402993 406991 410990 411995
      410003 412013 415016 419015 424011 425012 427010 427008
 1.00 407005 406001 404000 401998 399000 397003 395006 394009
      393011 392015 392017 395016 397015 400014 402012 404009
      406007 407005
 1.00 292943 293937 292931 292927 290921 288922 287925 285928
      281931 279934 276937 276941 277944 281946 287947 289947
      292944 292943
 1.50 422999 422989 424980 424961 423953 421945 419940 416935
      410933 409935 409938 412952 413959 413968 411975 408981
      407984 410985 412983 415984 416992 415998 415002 417004
      420004 422001 422999
 2.00 421964 421956 419947 417942 414937 410937 410940 412946
      414949 414954 415961 416970 417976 419975 420971 421964

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.