Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 28/1200 UTC THRU MAY 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS / LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

MULTIPLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...ALIGNED IN A QUASI
WEST-EAST FASHION EARLY SUN MORNING...CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATION INTO A MORE THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORED ENVIRONMENT
(UNTAPPED DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY). THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE
FUELED ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED SURFACE FRONT...LYING ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPUR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD...AS IT BECOME REINFORCED LATER IN THE PERIOD
(00-12Z MON) AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE NORTH
STRENGTHENS TO 110+ KTS AT 250 MB (RATHER ROBUST AT THIS LATITUDE
FOR LATE MAY). THE INCREASING ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING
(LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/UPPER DIVERGENCE) WILL FAVOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD...HEAVIER CONVECTION INTO EASTERN TX...NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHERN MS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AS
THE ACTIVITY SLIDES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATER SUN
NIGHT. THE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH TRAINING...AS THE
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO THE MEAN 850-500 MB
FLOW.



HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 568008 567010 567013 567016 567019 567021 566027 566035
      564041 562043 557043 553043 550045 544044 539041 536043
      533048 531052 529058 525060 520059 514056 508055 504052
      497046 484030 479023 475019 471021 467033 472041 475044
      473044 466048 463052 463059 467068 470075 473078 475084
      478089 478095 479101 482105 485115 490122 493126 498128
      504134 508139 512143 514136 517139 523148 527156 526161
      524166 521167 517164 513163 509164 504171 502175 502183
      500191 499188 493181 490175 487172 485167 484162 478157
      474152 473148 465140 457135 454132 452128 449124 444121
      442116 438113 427110 424110 421105 423103 423097 425084
      426080 431081 429077 424075 419065 416062 412064 408066
      404065 401062 396062 391061 388057 386053 388049 396050
      406047 410045 413039 417029 422022 425020 430021 436026
      445026 450025 452022 455020 459020 462023 465023 467023
      469021 471019 471015 469008 467004 465999 459990 455983
      453978 453970 453952 449941 446931 446924 448918 448911
      445907 439900 431902 424905 417908 409903 401900 392904
      386904 382907 379910 376912 369917 366921 363927 358935
      353942 342958 332973 328978 323986 319994 317005 310026
      308034 305036 303038 302042 299052 297055 293058 289059
      284058 279057 275054 269053 267052 266049 260040 256032
      255028 255022 252019 248018 241014 238007 235997 235993
      237989 239985 244986 247988 251991 260984 265978 269971
      276953 283935 286925 283920 284917 286914 289914 291912
      295905 300905 304907 308898 310893 311885 311873 310867
      308865 308861 309858 315858 318857 319855 320850 321846
      322840 324836 327833 330831 333830 333827 331822 330818
      325809 325803 326798 328791 332783 335775 337773 335770
      332767 330763 329757 327752 326744 330738 335732 337731
      338728 337720 338711 341706 345703 350702 355704 358707
      360715 361717 363715 366712 368709 372707 377705
 0.01 377705 382713 381716 382720 382728 382734 383737 386736
      395731 401728 404725 414721 419722 422722 425721 428717
      432718 432721 432725 434726 442732 445736 450738 454740
      459739 457731 455726 453721 450716 449711 449708 446708
      443708 443705 443703 446700 451693 455689 457683 456675
      456668 457661 460656 464647 467644 470642 472643 476647
      476654 479668 482683 482696 482702 483710 487724 496746
      512760 516768 523776 530782 532787 534789 534795 535804
      537809 540814 541822 540829 540834 541836 543839 546838
      550835 553832 556832 560839 563864 561864 560865 558865
      556866 557867 557870 557873 557875 558877 559878 560880
      560881 561883 562885 562886 562889 563891 564891 564894
      564897 565899 566902 567905
 0.01 531235 530232 528234 527236 526238 525241 525244 525246
      524247 525249 525252 527252
 0.01 524214 524207 523203 522197 520192 516193 513197 511199
      509201 511207 515208 517212 522213 524214
 0.01 505208 505205 505203 506200 504200 503198 502196 501196
      499196 499198 497200 497203 497205 496208 498211 499211
      501209 503210 505208 505208
 0.01 446727 446725 444723 442723 440726 441728 442728 444727
      446727 446727
 0.01 442713 441714 441716 442713 442713
 0.01 442019 443009 441002 443000 443995 441988 438983 433983
      431983 431987 432995 434000 435004 434006 431009 430011
      434014 439017 440019 442019
 0.01 410110 411108 411105 411103 411101 411099 410096 408096
      406095 404098 404100 404102 404104 404107 405109 407112
      408112 410110 410110
 0.01 415008 413005 413003 411003 410003 408003 406005 404007
      404009 406012 408012 409012 411012 413012 413010 415008
      415008
 0.01 384200 384198 383195 381195 379194 379196 379197 380199
      382200 384200 384200
 0.01 374053 374050 372047 370046 365045 360047 354051 352052
      348052 342049 336047 329047 325051 332051 336052 338054
      343059 344063 342067 340074 338076 339078 345081 348082
      351081 354075 364065 366060 368057 372055 374053
 0.01 279927 279919 279910 277904 277902 273902 270906 268911
      268915 266917 266925 264927 265931 268933 274933 277929
      279927
 0.25 558916 558914 558913 557914 558916 558917 558916
 0.25 521821 519816 517813 512811 509805 504803 500798 492798
      480793 474790 470784 466778 463771 462767 462760 462756
      464754 467751 469747 468745 465743 458744 453745 446746
      442744 436741 428741 422740 416737 411734 404734 397737
      391740 385745 382752 384757 386759 392763 394765 394769
      392776 388781 382783 377780 375771 372762 369754 365754
      361756 356759 362776 365783 366786 370788 375790 372798
      368804 366811 358819 356827 352832 348837 345846 344848
      340847 337846 334847 330852 330863 329871 326878 323887
      320895 316910 311921 308928 304932 303932 300929 297923
      294921 292924 291931 286945 275976 272983 267987 258994
      257998 258001 263006 261016 264024 264033 268038 272044
      277048 286050 292048 295046 295043 292040 289039 336949
      342936 348925 352911 358897 362890 366884 370879 376874
      382870 386866 388862 391859 396858 404859 412858 419856
      424853 429854 432855 437859 443860 444865 442868 431879
      426884 422891 419897 422899 424897 429892 436889 448883
      458877 462873 466867 471861 476857 481852 487850 490848
      492844 494842 496837 496833 499828 505825 506820 508816
      510814 512817 512824 515825 521821
 0.25 516931 516924 515917 514912 511908 497900 490896 485895
      480897 477898 474896 468889 466886 463886 460890 459896
      459902 461907 467914 469917 469921 472930 474934 476939
      479950 482953 487953 494949 509944 513939 516931
 0.25 465702 465700 463700 463701 465702 465702
 0.25 351722 350718 347717 346719 345723 345730 344735 344739
      343746 347750 350749 352746 351740 351738 350731 351724
      351722
 0.50 510924 510921 510920 510918 509916 508915 507915 506916
      506919 507921 507922 508924 509925 510924 510924
 0.50 489810 487808 484807 477807 474811 475820 467829 460831
      454834 449838 448843 450845 452848 455848 460847 463849
      462855 464858 467858 475850 484839 486833 485824 481819
      484817 486813 489810
 0.50 463790 462784 461782 455777 452770 450767 450762 454757
      460751 459748 454748 446751 443752 442749 436746 429748
      422752 418752 416751 410749 406750 404752 403756 402762
      402770 398776 395783 393787 390790 381800 379810 380815
      387816 394814 398813 399817 400823 398828 402832 408836
      415838 418837 419832 420821 421813 423810 426810 430817
      433819 435818 439811 453808 458798 463790
 0.50 443877 442876 440875 439876 437878 435880 434883 435884
      437884 439882 440881 441880 442878 443877
 0.50 391842 390837 385834 381833 378830 375829 372829 370828
      369824 367820 364823 364826 366829 371831 367842 365854
      366859 366863 368866 371866 373864 375860 381852 385847
      390845 391842
 0.50 351892 350881 349876 346875 344877 338883 334886 331888
      325893 322897 321901 319912 315922 300954 298962 294964
      289965 284965 281969 277978 274985 268991 263997 265001
      267005 267010 266014 265018 266022 270030 272031 275030
      277027 281025 286025 289024 292021 294015 297013 302006
      303995 307986 311979 316971 326957 331949 336942 343926
      349906 351892
 1.00 443791 440787 437787 433788 428790 425792 421796 422801
      425801 431800 434799 437796 441793 443791
 1.00 419804 418802 415801 411802 411805 411810 411814 411817
      410821 411826 412828 413827 415825 416821 416818 417814
      417811 419806 419804
 1.00 344904 345893 343891 342893 340895 337897 334898 331897
      328898 325906 324915 324920 323924 317929 314935 312943
      308951 307960 309962 312961 317957 322952 327947 332943
      336936 338928 341919 344904
 1.00 286016 286014 285013 283012 282013 281014 282015 282016
      283017 285017 286016
 1.00 287991 288983 287979 288974 288970 285970 282974 279979
      278987 275991 271997 271001 277001 282999 286993 287991
 1.50 339908 339905 336904 333902 331901 329902 328904 327909
      328913 330915 331917 333919 335916 337913 338910 339908
 1.50 322941 323939 322937 321935 319936 319937 317939 317941
      316943 316944 315945 315947 314949 316950 316949 317948
      318947 319945 321943 321942 322941
 2.00 334908 333906 331907 330908 331910 333910 334908

$$




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