Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 26/0000 UTC THRU JUL 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

SOUTHWEST / CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES / SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION (1-2 SIGMAS ABOVE
THE MEAN FOR LATE JULY) ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR EXPANDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING MORE RAPIDLY S-SE LATER
THIS EVENING PER THE INCREASING CORFIDI VECTORS AND
DOWNWIND/FORWARD PROPAGATION. AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS (0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AOB 20 KTS)...HOWEVER THE UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW (20-25 KTS) SHOULD MAINTAIN MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MUCAPES
500-1500 J/KG). WPCQPF WAS COMPRISED PRIMARILY OF...


SOUTHERN PLAINS ENE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...OH & TN
VALLEYS...MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...WHICH STALLS ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE MASON/DIXON LINE ON TUE.

ACROSS THE OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG)...AND
HIGH PW VALUES (2-2.25") ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITING FACTOR IN TERMS OF UPSCALE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY
WILL BE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND WEAK (<20 KTS) 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR. MAX AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS ARE THEREFORE CAPPED AROUND 1 INCH
AS A RESULT...THOUGH AGAIN THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS (2-4")...WHICH GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...WOULD FALL VERY QUICKLY (I.E. WITHIN 2-3 HOURS).
WPCQPF CONSISTED OF CONTINUITY (PREVIOUS FORECAST) BLENDED WITH
VARIOUS PIECES OF THE AVAILABLE 12Z HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
RGEM...NSSL-WRF...WRF-ARW...WRF-NMMB...AND HREF MEAN.

FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND MID ATLANTIC...SLOW
MOVING/STALLING SURFACE FRONT ALIGNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES
OVER THE DAY 1 PERIOD...PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND OVERALL WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
INHIBIT THE PROSPECTS OF PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND AS
SUCH AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 1 INCH (THOUGH
AGAIN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED).

ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BETTER HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE FOR MORE PROGRESSIVE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION
PRIOR TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY THE SAME TOKEN...
MULTIPLE LINES OF CONVECTION (AS OBSERVED PER THE RADAR LOOPS
EARLY MON AFTN) WITH STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AND
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL) WILL MAINTAIN A LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT
THROUGH MON EVENING.


SOUTH-CENTRAL TX EAST THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

MORE NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST/FL BOTH
TODAY AND TUE WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...AT OR ABOVE 2"...OVER THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD EASTERN TX WHICH MAY HELP FOCUS HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG/NEAR ITS TRACK. OTHERWISE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MAIN TRIGGERS/FOCI
FOR CONVECTION. ACROSS FL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY EASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. USED A
BLEND OF MOST RECENT GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONTINUITY IN THIS AREA.

HURLEY/ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 559111 556108 552107 548108 545111 535123 532122 533115
      533111 532105 528084 530052 527042 525036 523031 520028
      515027 512027 509030 502037 495046 490054 484062 480069
      479072 478068 476064 474055 471047 481030 485017 485007
      484000 482997 482991 485984 486978 488967 489953 489946
      488941 488933 488929 489927 489919 490915 490909 488901
      484894 478890 475889 473889 472886 471883 470876 468865
      463856 460853 455853 452857 452863 454897 455902 456909
      456925 453954 451965 449970 444972 439972 435973 430978
      427986 424995 413009 410015 411017 413019 403023 400024
      402028 402031 399032 395035 391036 385035 381036 379036
      379033 375030 370029 366028 366021 379941 379936 381930
      386921 390907 391901 391892 391885 391880 397871 393849
      392836 391829 392823 399807 402798 402792 402785 400774
      400768 401762 401755 405750 410741 414734 417729 420726
      437716 442716 443723 445729 450733 456737 460737 463732
      468726 473720 483705 485701 486697 487692 486684 485675
      483665 479652 475644 471641 467640 464639 459640 454640
      448642 444641 438642 433642 428644 424647 422650 416658
      406672 400690 398698 394705 390709 389713 385723 381734
      380739 379748 378752 375755 371751 366749 363748 359750
      357755 356761 354783 352802 350811 346818 335832 333835
      331841 328853 329860 331863 335862 338862 339865 341867
      342874 346886 349897 351902 351907 346926 340943 338952
      335959 331969 328973 325975 330957 330949 329943 328936
      328930 329916 328900 327876 325867 323857
 0.01 323857 319849 316837 315827 315820 312817 297811 294809
      292807 299802 301796 298793 291794 286797 278801 273804
      266805 259809 257812 256815 257817 259821 263822 267824
      263826 260829 260833 261844 256860 254870 257880 258883
      258887 256896 256911 260924 263933 265938 265946 259962
      260972 261977 263982 266992 267996 265998 261998 243994
      240993 237996 235999 234003 240010 245014 253019 260024
      268029 283032 290036 297041 300044 304044 306047 311051
      317056 320058 324062 326067 322069 313068 311070 309072
      306072 299067 290064 287062 282061 277061 273062 267068
      263067 260063 253054 245049 235048 230050 228056 228060
      230065 234071 240079 245084 250089 265099 272103 275105
      276109 280112 284115 291120 294123 296128 299132 302134
      305134 310135 314138 320139 324136 321126 320120 322119
      325120 331124 333128 337130 335123 331116 329113 329111
      332110 338117 338122 340126 344132 350133 353137 356137
      357133 360132 363136 367137 371131 376130 386112 389109
      392107 395108 401111 407110 409108 411103 412095 409092
      406095 404098 400099 395098 391100 386104 379108 377109
      376117 376122 374126 371126 368124 365121 358115 353113
      351110 348105 350102 352104 353108 355110 359109 359107
      358102 359098 361096 365093 371093 374093 375097 378099
      382095 387089 392083 394080 398079 402077 403074 408051
      409043 411040 414041 419041 424044 436046 439048 447047
      458047 461047 461053 464065 467075 469080 470085 475094
      467092 463091 460092 458096 459101 462109 464113 468117
      471119 473123 478130 485138 487142 487147 484148 483150
      479149 472148 472150 474154 482160 484162 484166 485172
      480183 482193 485197 482202 480207 481212 484212 488211
      491209 494209 496218 496225 498230 502238 506246 510250
      514254 518255 522251 525246 526241 526236 524230 525222
      521211 523205 528207 531208 535204 537195 539178
 0.01 559111 556108 552107 549108 545111 535123 532123 533115
      534112 532106 528086 527079 528071 529062 530053 527041
      523033 521029 517027 512027 509029 502036 495045 491053
      485061 481068 479071 477066 475056 471047 479033 483021
      485017 485009 485002 482997 482991 484985 487973 488968
      489959 489953 489945 488929 489924 490918 490912 489906
      488901 486897 482891 478889 475889 472886 471882 470875
      469871 467865 465859 463856 459853 455854 452858 452864
      452872 453886 454895 455901 456920 454949 452960 448971
      446972 441972 436972 433974 429981 427985 426990 424995
      421998 416005 411013 411021 405021 400023 400031 394035
      391036 388035 383035 379035 379033 376031 372030 366029
      366017 364013 364004 364998 366994 370988 373979 377972
      376963 377951 378943 379936 381930 384925 387917 390907
      391895 391887 391880 397873 395858 393847 391832 391827
      392823 395814 403797 402786 400773 400765 401759 401756
      402753 405750 415732 418728 422725 429720 434718 438715
      441715 442718 445725 446730 449733 456737 461736 463733
      467727 473721 477715 482708 486698 486691 485681 485673
      483665 479652 475644 472641 468640 464639 458640 454640
      449642 437641 429643 422650 417655 412662 407669 404678
      401685 399694 390711 381733 380739 380745 377755 375755
      373753 369750 365748 360749 358752 357757 355769 354788
      353799 351808 348815 342821 337830 334833 333837 330848
      328854 330861 333863 337861 341868 343875 344880 348892
      351902 351907 350913 347921 345929 342938 339948 333963
      331969 328973 324974 325971 328965 329960 330958 330953
      329948 328896 327879 325861
 0.01 325861 317844 316832 315821 312818 309816 303813 296810
      292808 295804 300800 301795 299794 296793 290795 272805
      263806 256812 257816 259820 268825 260829 260833 260840
      260848 258855 255865 254869 255875 258882 259884 258887
      257891 256896 256903 257915 261926 265938 265943 265949
      260956 259962 259966 260973 262978 264986 266997 257998
      249996 240993 235999 234003 236005 242011 260024 268029
      279031 288035 296041 307049 313053 321059 324061 325065
      326068 323069 318069 313068 311070 309072 307072 303070
      287062 277061 273062 269066 266068 263066 256057 253054
      249051 245049 240048 234048 230051 228056 228061 232068
      237076 242081 245083 247087 253091 261096 274105 277109
      280113 287117 292120 294124 296129 301133 311135 314138
      321139 324136 323131 321125 320123 321119 325119 328121
      331124 334129 337130 337127 333120 329114 329111 330110
      334112 338118 339124 342129 356136 356134 359132 362135
      365137 369136 371131 376130 381121 388111 393107 396108
      400111 406110 409108 411102 412095 410092 404097 401099
      396098 390100 376110 375125 373126 370126 366121 352112
      349108 349103 356110 359109 359107 358102 359098 361096
      365093 374093 375098 379098 385092 389086 395080 399079
      402077 405069 407055 410040 417041 422042 425045 430045
      439048 459046 465070 467075 469080 472091 475094 470094
      463091 460091 458096 460104 462109 465114 471120 482135
      486139 487141 487146 483150 475148 483178 480183 481187
      482193 485198 480206 480211 484213 491209 494209 495212
      496225 500234 505244 510252 516255 521253 524249 526240
      526235 524229 525221 523217 521210 524205 528207 531208
      534204 536200 537194 538186
 0.01 551157 550157 549159 547161 545161 544163 542165 542168
      541170 541171 540173 540175 539178
 0.01 484093 484090 483088 482087 482085 481083 480084 480087
      480089 479092 477094 479096 480096 482095 484093
 0.01 436763 435751 433739 433734 431730 425732 424735 425741
      423745 424751 425763 426774 428786 429786 431781 430776
      435768 436763
 0.01 384042 383040 382040 380042 381043 383043 384042
 0.01 345006 345998 343991 341985 337980 332984 328988 325992
      320995 319003 324006 331007 338007 345006
 0.01 323044 323042 322041 320040 319040 317040 315041 317043
      318043 320043 320044 322045 323044
 0.25 533155 534148 533143 529134 523127 522113 521108 519104
      517100 513097 509099 501093 499090 496089 494092 495097
      497101 506117 501123 498127 497133 499142 504153 508160
      516165 519168 520173 524183 527173 530159 533155
 0.25 514229 515224 515219 515216 514212 513209 511206 508206
      506208 505210 504213 503218 505221 506223 507227 508230
      510233 513231 514229
 0.25 520078 520070 517062 512061 507062 502063 499063 497067
      500073 505078 509081 513087 516082 520078
 0.25 474687 472678 467667 463662 456658 450656 445657 442660
      440664 438668 441673 441679 440687 438693 440698 446693
      448689 453688 457692 458698 457702 454710 453717 454723
      456725 459726 462725 465722 468714 471706 474687
 0.25 481927 482924 481922 481919 480918 480917 479914 479913
      478912 477911 475912 474915 474917 475920 475922 476923
      476925 477927 479929 481928 481927
 0.25 471986 471984 471982 470981 469983 467984 467986 469987
      470987 471986
 0.25 466954 467949 467944 466942 464940 460940 459942 459945
      458949 459952 460957 460962 460966 462964 464960 465957
      466954
 0.25 462893 463888 463883 462878 462873 461869 459867 457869
      457874 457879 458883 458886 459891 460894 462893
 0.25 450991 450987 447985 440982 437984 435988 432995 431999
      427001 422006 422009 423012 427012 430009 437008 443004
      447998 450991
 0.25 416719 416715 414713 409711 403713 399718 398724 396731
      395738 397740 400739 403735 406730 409725 414722 416719
 0.25 393796 393789 391786 384783 379783 374786 368795 364802
      361810 349825 344832 342841 342848 343851 346852 351854
      353857 355869 358878 360883 360891 358901 353921 349932
      346942 346953 345966 345973 347979 348984 351989 355991
      359989 364983 368974 369966 369958 370948 372936 375925
      379916 381905 383896 387870 386857 386844 386830 387817
      391808 393800 393796
 0.25 395062 394057 388055 383054 379051 371045 365045 360045
      353053 353060 355065 357070 359073 362073 367074 371075
      372077 374082 378083 382071 391067 395062
 0.25 372776 373770 370763 368760 364758 362762 362767 361774
      362780 363787 365786 369783 371779 372776
 0.25 352122 353117 351115 349113 348111 346109 345105 343104
      341105 339108 339109 340111 342115 343116 347118 349119
      351121 352122
 0.25 357036 358025 354018 349015 346015 343018 339025 336032
      333038 333042 337043 344042 346041 349042 355044 357036
 0.25 350081 349077 347074 345073 343072 340070 338072 336074
      334076 331077 332081 334083 335084 337082 341083 344083
      346082 350081
 0.25 317900 318889 317878 315864 312856 305842 302840 297842
      292842 288839 282837 276836 274836 270839 266847 267852
      269855 271859 270864 265872 264876 265881 268889 268895
      267907 268917 270926 271936 272948 271958 271964 273966
      277973 280981 290980 292983 292988 293997 295001 299004
      304001 306998 310990 312982 312976 312968 313960 315951
      314942 313936 314929 315918 317900
 0.25 305102 303093 299086 292081 283078 275079 272081 270087
      274095 277098 281100 286101 288104 291107 293104 303104
      305102
 0.25 305034 306032 306030 306028 306026 305024 303025 302025
      302027 301029 301032 303033 304034 305034
 0.25 291018 291017 289016 287016 285016 283016 282018 283020
      285021 287021 289021 290020 290019 291018
 0.25 245064 245062 244061 244060 243058 243057 241056 241055
      239054 237054 235053 234054 233055 232057 232059 233061
      235063 236064 238065 239066 240066 242067 244066 245064
 0.50 522160 523152 523145 520141 519137 516132 513130 511130
      509133 512139 514142 514147 515156 518159 521160 522160
 0.50 463675 462673 461671 459669 457668 456668 455667 454668
      453669 453671 454671 456671 457672 458673 460674 462675
      463675 463675
 0.50 465705 465702 463701 462701 460703 460704 459705 458707
      457708 457709 457712 458714 458716 460715 461713 463710
      464708 464707 465705
 0.50 403727 403725 401724 400725 400726 398728 398730 399731
      401732 402730 402729 403727
 0.50 387804 386799 384796 379802 376805 372807 369810 368816
      365820 362821 355824 351826 349830 347835 348842 352844
      356843 358845 359851 364860 366869 371888 364907 360913
      357921 354932 352943 352961 350974 351980 353983 358983
      360980 363973 364960 366949 371930 374920 375909 378890
      383880 384874 383868 383856 382844 382832 383818 387804
 0.50 384793 385790 385788 383786 382786 381786 381789 380791
      380793 381795 382795 384793 384793
 0.50 377055 377053 374051 370050 367050 363051 361052 358053
      357056 359057 363057 365056 368056 372055 375055 377055
      377055
 0.50 346114 346113 345112 344110 343111 344112 345114 346114
 0.50 350033 351031 350029 350028 348028 346029 344030 343032
      342032 342034 343035 344035 346035 348034 350034 350033
 0.50 313894 314887 313881 310868 305860 297853 292852 288854
      283857 280861 274868 272874 271880 275889 273901 272907
      273913 274927 275940 277953 279957 283960 285961 289961
      292957 294952 295946 295931 297921 302910 313894
 0.50 295094 295092 293088 292086 290084 288083 285082 283082
      279084 278086 277090 278092 281095 283095 287096 291097
      294096 295094
 1.00 363938 363936 363935 361934 360936 360938 359940 359941
      360943 361945 362943 361941 363939 363938
 1.00 295887 295879 293872 287871 280873 281889 280904 279912
      280921 281936 281939 283941 285939 285934 286925 286917
      288912 292899 295887
 1.00 286089 286088 284087 283089 284089 286090 286089

$$





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