Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150652
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 15/1200 UTC THRU SEP 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHEAST

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE RECENT PATTERN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO LIE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THIS AREA.  PW VALUES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 2.00-2.25"+ RANGE---1.5+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY.  WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROF FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST---UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE
UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  THIS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS---ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
NOT GREAT WITH EXACT PLACEMENT AS ACTIVITY MAY AGAIN BE WIDELY
SCATTERED.

MID MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ROTATING EASTWARD IN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN U.S. DAY 1.
 THIS WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING AREA OF UVVS AHEAD OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS AND AN INCREASING AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE.  WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED ONLY TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT
FALLS---PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY.  DAY 1 QPF
FOLLOWED THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MODERATE AMOUNTS IN THE .10-.25"+
RANGE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY---ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES

THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW MOVING
EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
DETAILS HERE---WITH AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

SOUTHWEST

MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD DAY
1 ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF ODILE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.  AT THE
MOMENT---THE TIMING OF THIS NORTHWARD SURGE WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER
DAY 1--ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINS MAY BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AZ
BORDER BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 218093 223111 225120 229126 240138 245145 252149 263150
      270149 285146 292145 298143 306140 312137 318133 324125
      330119 333118 336115 340113 343116 347121 351124 352119
      349111 346104 348099 353100 356102 358100 358091 354084
      349081 345075 351071 356071 360070 366071 370074 375081
      378083 381083 383077 387075 395076 400074 401067 404060
      381053 380049 377048 374046 371046 353044 350035 348030
      349023 351019 351013 353007 355005 359995 361992 364988
      368981 371972 378960 379957 380955 382956 387961 394958
      399953 405948 409945 414945 420946 423947 433947 437945
      439942 442933 448911 450901 452890 453883 452871 452857
      452852 453847 455837 457829 458825 458819 461807 464797
      467787 470777 471773 469769 466767 465764 467756 471746
      475737 479729 480726 479723 479718 480715 483708 486699
      487692 484689 480690 476689 471690 465691 462690 456692
      453695 446700 440705 422715 408723 400727 394733 383744
      381748 381752 384759 395766 397771 398777 396789 393796
      396798 400799 396808 393819 393830 394843 395854 395860
      394864 392871 388877 379893 374898 371898 369896 365892
      363894 361897 360902 361927 361934 360939 358948 355958
      353970 351974 348973 343969 338965 334960 331961 328965
      324972 323983 320990 319995 318001 320013 323021 324031
      320039 317041 313041 307047 305051 304054 301055 299056
      294056 288056 283057 278056 271053 264050 258045 244036
      239035 233035 227041 225052 225054 226056 225058 225060
      224062 223064 223066 224068 223070 223071
 0.01 358830 358823 357819 352812 347805 344797 342788 342783
      344779 346772 347765 346761 344754 342752 337753 323762
      319763 316766 313772 311788 311794 309799 307807 305811
      300812 292811 284808 277806 269804 263804 252805 250808
      249812 253818 260821 274827 279831 276836 273840 272844
      270852 270858 269863 270873 273893 274901 274910 273916
      272921 269928 266936 261941 257947 252954 241961 235967
      233969 234973 231981 231991 231996 232997 236999 239998
      247998 250996 255996 262992 268988 273982 279978 288968
      299958 305952 308945 310941 310936 310924 313916 318910
      326900 338889 343882 347875 350868 353859 356843 358830
 0.25 454747 453740 451737 448736 443736 434739 432743 432747
      431752 430759 428767 425775 422784 419793 416800 413809
      412819 415821 420821 427817 432812 436805 446793 448788
      448781 448775 450763 452755 454747
 0.25 442841 442835 439832 436834 434837 427852 424858 421866
      417873 412878 407884 403889 404896 405899 410904 426906
      428903 429898 429891 428882 426874 427868 431867 433865
      437858 440851 442841
 0.25 347853 341837 336833 329832 324832 323836 321839 317838
      315837 315834 320827 328815 331808 332801 335792 333787
      330786 325788 323790 319794 311807 306820 304825 301827
      295828 292829 291832 288839 287847 286856 286864 288872
      288878 287884 290892 293894 295891 298885 301883 306882
      309876 311859 335867 341867 345862 347853
 0.25 300086 299082 297079 291075 281068 257054 245048 237047
      233051 233056 232061 228067 223078 221083 220088 222096
      227108 231122 234127 239132 247141 254144 259145 269145
      276144 286139 291133 293123 294118 293111 290104 286097
      283091 288087 290086 295087 299088 300086
 0.25 269970 269968 268967 266966 265966 263966 261968 259969
      257969 256970 257971 258972 259972 261972 263972 264972
      266972 268970 269970
 0.50 329803 330799 328796 324799 321802 318804 315809 313812
      311816 314818 319817 323814 325812 328808 329804 329803
 0.50 307854 306848 303842 299838 295839 292843 290849 289858
      292866 294868 297868 303869 305870 305867 306861 307854
 0.50 289133 289127 289120 287110 280101 274095 260082 254073
      250071 245069 234066 230069 227072 223083 223090 224094
      231113 234123 241130 247137 251140 256142 268142 278140
      286137 289133
 0.50 253063 252061 252059 250059 249058 248057 246057 245056
      244055 243055 241055 241056 241057 241058 242060 244061
      246061 248061 250061 251061 253063 253063
 1.00 287133 287127 287122 285113 283109 280106 274101 262089
      248079 241074 237073 232072 228079 227088 228095 229099
      232107 237124 248135 253138 257139 266139 276138 283136
      287133
 1.50 286133 286123 284114 282110 279107 273102 263092 251083
      243079 237077 233080 232084 232095 233103 236111 238119
      239123 241126 247131 251136 256138 262138 270138 279137
      285134 286133
 2.00 284134 285129 285124 284116 280109 275105 269101 265096
      255087 247083 242082 239084 236087 235095 235104 237111
      239118 242124 248129 251135 254136 259137 266137 281135
      284134
 3.00 283132 283124 282118 279111 275107 265099 256092 250088
      244090 238102 239109 240116 243122 247125 255135 263135
      270135 277135 281134 283133 283132
 4.00 280130 282126 281122 281117 278112 275108 268103 259097
      255094 251093 249095 242100 240107 241113 243118 246121
      253128 255133 261134 272133 277133 280130
 5.00 280128 280121 279117 275110 268105 261100 257098 252097
      245100 242104 242110 243115 246118 253123 256126 257130
      261133 266133 274131 280128
 6.00 278125 278119 276115 271108 264104 257100 253099 249101
      245103 244106 244111 245115 248117 253120 256122 258126
      260130 263132 270130 275128 278125
 7.00 276125 276117 272110 266106 259102 253101 248103 246105
      245111 247114 250116 256120 260126 263129 267129 274127
      276125
 8.00 275123 274116 271110 264106 257103 252103 249105 247107
      247111 248113 251115 257120 261125 264127 267128 273126
      275123
 9.00 273125 274118 272112 267108 261106 255104 250107 249111
      254115 257118 261123 265126 271126 273125
10.00 271124 273118 272114 269110 266108 260107 257105 253107
      251111 254114 257117 260121 263123 267125 271124

$$




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