Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240646
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 24/1200 UTC THRU JUN 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...

POST TROPICAL CINDY TRACKING BRISKLY ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AT
THE MOMENT WILL WHIP THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT MORNING
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CLIP LONG ISLAND, CT, RI AND SERN MA WITH
DECENT RAIN RATES AND WPC WILL LIKELY PLACE THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE GUIDANCE HAS A SOLID HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE THAT IS EXTRA-TROPICAL WITH THE ACTIVE AND
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLIES. WPC WENT WITH AREAL AVGS OF UP TO AN INCH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BY MIDDAY.

...SOUTHEAST TO GULF COAST STATES TO TX/NM...

A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG THE ACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL
REACH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH AND TX ON SAT. THIS FRONTAL
ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND INTERACT WITH STILL ELEVATED
MOISTURE CONTENT FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION. OF COURSE, SOME OF THIS AREA WAS HIT HARD BY HEAVY
RAINS FROM CINDY AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING WITH LIGHT STEERING
FLOW, FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PERSIST FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF AL/MS
AND LA. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH NAM
CONEST/HRW-ARW AND HRW-NMMB FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND LOCATION FOR
POSSIBLE 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
FROM EASTERN NC/PARTS OF SC INTO SOUTHERN AL/MS AND LA INTO A
LARGE PART OF TX, SOUTHERN/SERN TO PANHANDLE OF THE STATE. ALSO,
THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NM.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES...

TWO VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A
BROAD ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH TO ALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MN/WI INTO MI.
ONE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK FROM ND/MN TO LOWER MI, WHILE
ANOTHER REACHES NORTHERN MN BY SUN MORNING. THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF
QPF APPEARS LIKELY FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NERN WI AND UP OF
MI/NORTHERN LOWER MI, WHERE AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE.


MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 523158 521146 519133 517128 513124 507120 504119 502116
      499113 496109 493104 481092 475081 472082 473086 476092
      479095 485100 486105 486109 487116 490124 490128 487128
      484128 480125 479130 487139 489142 493145 499153 505159
      509163 515164 518164 521162 523158
 0.01 519986 517979 517970 515955 511929 503906 500892 499885
      497877 492856 486836 485813 486808 485800 486793 485788
      484781 481774 477761 475755 475751 476748 478737 481728
      483715 481685 483680 483676 482670 480668 475658 472650
      469646 467643 460641 457642 455641 451642 444649 435656
      429656 426658 414672 408681 404690 402694 404700 399710
      391727 388736 383741 382735 382728 384718 383713 384708
      383697 383690 382682 379668 370672 366674 364678 348718
      342732 338740 335749 330764 327773 321781 318786 314789
      306795 303798 300800 297799 293798 288798 283797 278797
      269795 262796 259799 261802 259807 256809 253806 247801
      244801 242805 243815 243822 245824 248822 250819 251814
      252810 254812 257817 259822 265829 267831 273829 278829
      278832 275836 275840 278842 283842 288839 292835 295832
      295824 301818 302813 305811 310811 313816 311821 309822
      308825 306831 304839 299846 296853 293866 293872 292878
      289900 289915 285924 274941 265951 258956 252963 248968
      246976 238991 240998 244001 252008 267017 277020 281022
      285022 288021 288025 289030 291036 291039 293040 303049
      308047 309048 310051 303054 299063 297070 295074 274073
      269074 268079 274087 280094 287099 290100 294099 304096
      313097 323093 326092 329092 329095 325098 321104 324107
      338098 342096 343090 344084 348083 352084 358083 359076
      362073 364068 368064 371066 375066 377059 382060 385063
      388063 399058 404058 409061 412061 413055 411052 407051
      400050 398048 398044 399037 398030 399023 401021 402025
      402028 405031 409026 411024 413019 411017 407014 404012
      404009 404003
 0.01 404003 402997 401989 397978 392975 389970 387965 382961
      380956 377954 377958 378961 379965 378981 378984 375985
      371987 363987 358984 351977 348969 347964 347955 348955
      353936 345925 344917 348910 348903 342902 342892 347880
      349867 351861 353857 360851 365830 370819 368813 369805
      370796 368785 370778 372766 374762 375759 379759 387759
      388758 393755 406750 417741 436734 441749 445756 448758
      449765 450780 451790 450793 448792 443790 441794 438791
      435785 434775 432773 431767 430753 429747 426744 422744
      420747 418750 415752 414758 412774 409777 407783 403785
      402787 400793 399796 401798 402800 401803 401808 403811
      408812 410816 409822 406825 403827 403829 400837 400844
      398852 399855 402858 404860 408860 411859 411856 412848
      419846 421849 421852 418856 415865 414868 416868 419870
      423884 420889 418896 418905 420911 422919 420925 421933
      424939 437951 442960 448969 452972 455979 460979 465977
      469977 472983 478994 480997 483000 491006 501006 505006
      509001 519986
 0.01 504073 505066 505060 504049 501041 498033 494027 489032
      486032 486036 489043 492051 494061 496069 498074 500076
      504073
 0.01 470105 470103 468100 467100 466102 466105 468105 470105
      470105
 0.01 453100 453097 452095 448094 446096 445094 442091 440091
      436090 436093 438095 440096 443096 446099 448099 451100
      453100
 0.01 451078 450075 448073 448070 445067 443067 440067 438069
      438071 439072 443074 444077 446077 448080 449080 451078
 0.01 427779 427777 426777 425779 427779 427779
 0.01 421794 421792 419790 418792 418795 420796 421794
 0.01 388199 385193 382190 377186 372183 365181 360183 361187
      364188 369191 373195 377200 384201 388199
 0.01 385024 384020 381015 379013 380006 381001 380997 377995
      375997 373001 372008 374014 376017 379019 382024 385024
 0.25 506955 505943 503932 499914 497905 492896 487893 482895
      478894 475892 471884 465871 461863 461856 463851 464848
      461847 455845 453834 450824 448823 445825 440829 433834
      435840 437844 440850 441859 442877 446884 449888 455893
      460899 463899 466896 468895 470898 473905 475910 476914
      479922 481929 484954 486963 489968 496969 501968 502966
      506955
 0.25 469823 468816 467811 466804 465797 464792 461788 459788
      457793 458800 459805 460812 462817 463822 467825 469823
 0.25 427698 426696 423696 420699 417705 415705 410704 406707
      402717 399728 398735 399742 400744 404744 407741 413734
      417729 419724 423713 426703 427698
 0.25 376696 375688 373684 370683 367687 365692 360703 355716
      347736 340755 331779 326792 324806 311847 309854 307860
      304872 302887 300893 296898 295908 294915 295922 295931
      294937 290948 287955 285960 277968 270978 263977 261979
      260982 269986 274983 281984 289988 293998 299002 297008
      301012 300015 302023 305026 311024 314018 316013 319010
      323007 326010 327016 329022 331026 334030 352044 354047
      357049 358051 356053 354055 356058 360055 364054 370054
      373054 375052 376048 376044 375039 375033 374028 369024
      366019 364013 359011 355006 353001 351993 348986 344978
      342972 342965 341960 338956 334958 332960 330958 327950
      327941 326935 327929 333932 334928 332923 326924 324904
      328893 330889 330881 346837 353829 353834 353837 356838
      359834 357830 354828 355824 360810 363800 362787 364783
      364779 363774 363768 363762 365758 369754 372749 374738
      375726 376718 377709 376696
 0.25 345061 345056 343052 337049 332050 329050 325049 320048
      323055 319060 314060 310061 308064 306070 306075 307078
      310079 319085 323086 327085 332084 337081 340076 342075
      342072 341069 342065 345061
 0.25 296815 294811 291810 286810 280815 276817 272817 266812
      262812 260813 261817 263819 270821 277824 283826 289822
      294818 296815
 0.25 275807 274807 274805 272804 271805 270806 271806 272808
      273808 274808 275807
 0.25 262998 261996 260995 259994 257993 255993 253992 252992
      251992 249991 248991 247992 248993 248994 249995 250996
      251997 253998 255999 257999 258999 260000 262998
 0.50 503954 503943 502937 498921 494906 490901 487899 485900
      482899 477897 475897 475900 477906 480912 484916 487921
      490927 488935 488944 491951 492958 494962 496963 501960
      503954
 0.50 466880 464875 461869 457864 453862 455855 456852 453855
      450860 447867 447875 449879 453881 456880 460880 462881
      466880
 0.50 450836 450834 450833 449831 448829 446829 445830 443831
      442832 442834 441834 442835 443836 445836 447838 449838
      450836 450836
 0.50 446848 446846 446844 446843 444841 442841 441844 442846
      442847 443848 444850 446848 446848
 0.50 420711 419709 416712 413716 410719 406722 403725 401730
      402736 405736 409733 412730 414727 417722 418717 420713
      420711
 0.50 373711 372703 370698 368697 365698 364701 360710 356721
      351736 344752 329789 328794 328799 328809 326814 326819
      328827 317840 316846 313851 309860 308866 308871 308875
      306880 302896 296903 297909 296916 297927 297936 294952
      285964 279970 279976 280980 285981 288983 290981 293977
      297977 303981 307982 309985 307994 306998 307001 308004
      309009 312005 319001 323997 325997 332004 336005 338008
      339011 343010 342002 343996 343989 339980 336976 336969
      337965 333964 329965 327960 323953 323948 322943 320940
      319937 316926 314921 313916 317909 320897 325889 327881
      328875 329869 332852 331844 332839 335835 336830 338825
      340822 343820 347825 349827 352826 356819 359811 360805
      359803 356801 353803 351803 350800 351795 353791 356782
      358778 358774 358770 362755 365746 368737 372722 373711
 0.50 373050 372048 371048 370048 369050 370051 372051 373050
 0.50 370032 371030 369028 366027 361025 359023 354020 347016
      342017 338016 336017 340018 343024 347031 353035 356036
      359035 362032 366033 370032
 0.50 339063 335061 332063 327064 322064 317064 312062 309067
      310070 316077 319080 321084 324084 325079 331081 334081
      337078 332071 337063 339063
 0.50 318973 317972 316971 314970 313971 314972 314973 315974
      317975 318973
 0.50 292816 291812 289811 286812 284814 283816 279817 277819
      277821 279822 281820 285819 288818 290817 292816
 0.50 268982 268980 266979 264979 263980 264982 266983 268982
 1.00 367721 367717 365715 361720 358727 352746 348757 343766
      335782 333787 332790 333793 336788 338791 334800 332805
      333809 337806 342809 345805 343800 342797 342794 345789
      351782 353779 355773 357763 360752 361742 362736 364731
      367723 367721
 1.00 343781 343780 342779 341778 340779 340781 339782 340782
      341782 343781 343781
 1.00 340817 340814 339813 339815 339817 339818 340817
 1.00 332991 330985 328981 329977 329973 327971 324969 323975
      325980 325984 323984 317988 317992 320992 322990 325988
      327990 331993 332991
 1.00 327837 326835 325838 326839 327837
 1.00 324072 324070 322068 320067 319067 317067 315068 314069
      315069 316071 316072 318073 320073 322073 324072 324072
 1.00 323874 322866 321857 320855 316855 313858 311865 312872
      311877 308882 307886 309890 314886 318882 321877 323874
 1.00 320960 319960 317960 319960 320960
 1.00 320949 321947 319946 317947 316949 317952 317953 319952
      320949
 1.00 312941 313938 312935 310930 311928 308924 306921 305916
      305912 302912 299916 299923 301928 301939 304949 299951
      297954 296961 297964 305961 309954 310947 312943 312941
 1.00 311905 311903 311901 310899 310896 310894 309893 307893
      307895 307897 306899 306901 306902 306903 306904 306905
      308907 310906 311905
 1.50 357754 353754 350758 348761 347765 347769 348776 348780
      350779 352775 354770 355766 356761 357754 357754
 1.50 306939 306937 306935 306933 305931 303933 304935 304937
      304939 305940 306939
 1.50 304926 304924 304922 304920 303918 303916 302916 301918
      301920 301922 302924 302926 303928 304926
 2.00 353768 354766 352765 352766 351769 353769 353768

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