Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 050702
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
201 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 05/1200 UTC THRU MAR 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

THE 0000 UTC NAM---0000 UTC GFS AND THE ECMWF FROM BOTH 1200 UTC
MAR 4 AND 0000 UTC MAR 5 ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE QPF AMOUNTS AND
DISTRIBUTIONS DAY 1 FROM THE FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS---THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS IS LEADING TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
 WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SNOW POTENTIAL FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
DAY 1 IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS THAT
WILL BE ENHANCING UVVS TO THE NORTH OF THE LATEST ARCTIC FRONT
PRESSING INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HEAVIEST SNOWS
LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOSTON METRO AREA---KEEPING
RECORD SEASONAL SNOW TOTALS ON HOLD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY HERE.
SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

LIGHTER PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE HEAVY MID ATLANTIC SNOW AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAKENING LARGE
SCALE UVVS EARLY DAY 1 ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING ARCTIC FRONT.  STILL AN ICING THREAT EARLY DAY 1 FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.   AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .10- 25" RANGE
DEPICTED.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 538213 541199 541194 539191 531178 523164 514152 510151
      507151 502155 500159 499165 502171 507178 510186 517199
      522216 527223 532223 537218 538213
 0.01 522264 523258 523254 519249 515242 513236 509230 505231
      503234 503238 502249 503253 502257 497253 495251 492252
      489257 489262 490266 491274 495288 498295 502294 512285
      516279 519271 522264
 0.01 231977 237021 245018 250016 255019 261025 270031 275032
      279030 283026 283019 281008 279002 279994 283982 288974
      292971 296968 302962 306959 310954 320951 325948 328944
      336938 341934 344930 348922 353912 357903 369883 374874
      380864 385855 390847 393842 395837 398825 403798 408772
      408766 410761 413749 419726 425701 426686 427673 427660
      428651 419649 417647 414648 410652 381685 353713 348716
      345721 339731 333739 330744 328749 319768 310786 305797
      299806 288823 277838 271845 265855 259864 255874 247894
      243903 240912 238918 235923 235929 233934 233941 231945
      230957
 0.25 533214 534206 534199 533194 531189 529184 526180 523179
      524184 525190 525198 526204 528209 529213 530216 533214
 0.25 516270 517267 517266 517265 516262 514259 513258 511257
      510260 511262 511265 512268 513271 514272 515272 516270
      516270
 0.25 504278 505276 504273 504272 503270 503269 501269 500268
      499269 499271 499274 500277 501278 503278 504278
 0.25 417688 417683 414680 408680 402682 396685 388694 382702
      374712 367721 358729 351737 344747 341752 337757 335761
      333767 332770 334773 338770 344767 348771 347776 344783
      339793 337806 337813 339819 346830 347836 346842 344849
      342854 336866 331878 327888 330889 334885 348866 355857
      364852 369847 373843 379832 383823 388811 393797 397785
      401773 404760 410733 413719 415705 417688
 0.25 284887 282883 280883 276886 273889 270892 267896 267900
      269902 269905 275905 278902 280900 282896 283889 284887
 0.25 267952 266951 265951 264952 263952 261954 260956 259956
      258958 258960 259961 261960 262960 263959 264958 265957
      265956 266954 266952 267952
 0.25 239969 237969 236971 237973 238971 239970 239969
 0.50 410704 410698 408694 405692 401693 391703 373724 363735
      359740 356746 359749 362749 365751 365757 364765 362772
      357779 353784 350789 348796 348815 349823 351826 354828
      362824 366820 379813 383807 386801 390795 392789 397772
      397764 399756 403740 406724 409712 410704

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