Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 092056
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 10/0000 UTC THRU FEB 13/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF HIGH RH WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. COMPLICATING MATTERS ARE THE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH ONE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC-NORTHEAST COAST AND ULTIMATELY
PASSING WELL EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT PER THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND UPSTATE NY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN WHILE GIVING WAY TO YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW
THAT WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. IN
GENERAL...THE MODELS DEPICT A RATHER WEAK/STRUNG-OUT CIRCULATION
WITH THIS LOW OFF THE COAST...AS THE GFS/PARALLEL GFS/UKMET/CMC
DEPICT A SURFACE REFLECTION CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST BETWEEN 12-18Z WED WHILE THE NAM AN ECMWF ARE FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WPC OPTED CLOSER TO A NON-NAM/NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS WITH
THE QPF...WHICH LED TO A SLIGHT INCREASE AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS (TO
0.25+ INCH) FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG LONG
ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT...RI...AND EASTERN MASS.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.


...NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT QPF FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST AND RIDGE WEST WILL GENERATE A 130+ KT 250 MB
JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS-MN-WESTERN IA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD (THROUGH TONIGHT). THE JET STREAK WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND
EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN MN-IA-WESTERN WI AND INTO IL ON WED. THE
RESULTANT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING (NARROW CORRIDOR
OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS) WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED YET NARROW
SWATH OF LIGHT PCPN ALONG A SHARPENING LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE...BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW BOLSTERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW OFF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT (WITH THE 12Z RUNS) ARE
MORE SUBTLE...IN TERMS OF LOCATION AND TIMING...AND AS A RESULT
WPC WAS ABLE TO UTILIZE AN ENSEMBLE MEAN
(NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET)...INCLUDING THE LATEST PARALLEL GFS AND
RGEM...ALONG WITH THE WRF-ARW AND NSSL-WRF. 24 HOUR AMOUNTS WITHIN
THIS STRIPE AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.10 - 0.25 INCH...WITH SOME MODEL
CONSENSUS OF A SMALL/NARROW POCKET OF 0.25+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN ND.


DAYS 2/3...

...GREAT LAKES/APPALACHIANS/NORTHEASTERN U.S...

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF NORTH AMERICA
WILL FOSTER PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH PERIODS
OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THE FIRST PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIND
TRAJECTORIES ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. THE INITIAL SYSTEM
IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ONTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES GIVEN PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. A MAJOR LIMITATION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD IS MEAGER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING...PWATS BEGIN AROUND 0.25 INCHES BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW
0.10 INCHES AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. MANY OF THE LAKE SURFACES
ARE NEARLY ICE-FREE WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST HELP MAXIMIZE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THREAT.

IN ADDITION TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO SURROUNDING
MOUNTAIN RANGES OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE
MUCH LIGHTER WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY DRIVEN BY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
ANY INSTABILITY WHICH DEVELOPS WITH THE SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT.
OVERALL...THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION OUTPUT OF THE 12Z GFS/NAM/NAM CONUS NEST AND 09Z SREF
MEAN. DID MAKE ADD SOME MANUAL ENHANCEMENTS IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO GIVEN IMPRESSIVE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGING FROM ALBERTA THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MID/UPPER FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN
NEUTRAL HEIGHT FALLS. THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IN MODELS IS FOR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH AN AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MO VALLEY. A COMPROMISE OF MODELS
WAS USED FOR DAY 2 GIVEN SIMILAR FORECASTS WHILE MOVING MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHWESTERN CA...

THE WESTERN FLANK OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE ANCHORING THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
MIGRATES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS FORECAST A PRETTY
SUFFICIENT SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTING TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND...COURTESY OF A 40 TO 50 KNOT SW LLJ. THERE IS A NOTABLE
DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES AS THE MOISTURE PLUME DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH MOIST/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SPAWN A BROAD
AXIS LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WA/OR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
EVENTUALLY SPREADS RAINFALL INTO THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
DAY 3. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CA WITH THE 12Z NAM REMAINING
ONE OF THE LIGHTER SOLUTIONS. GIVEN IT REDUCES MOISTURE CONTENT
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN ANY OTHER SOLUTION...FELT INCLINED TO
REMOVE IT DURING THE DAY 3 FORECAST. WPC FAVORED A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.



GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


HURLEY/RUBIN-OSTER


24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 563076 558079 556081 552081 545080 540078 530070 522062
      482030 474019 466011 456004 451000 446996 437986 430977
      421968 413959 405947 397938 380920 373908 372901 375898
      379897 382899 387901 396908 416924 433942 437947 443951
      453956 464961 474967 496980 505986 511989 516992 555022
      559026 561032 564037 566044
 0.01 521268 521261 520256 517247 509230 505221 500215 496213
      492211 483209 475211 469215 463218 462223 463226 471223
      476219 481219 485221 487224 489229 487233 483235 479229
      463231 460233 457231 451235 448236 445240 438242 433241
      428238 426237 423239 420246 421248 423249 427252 418253
      415254 414258 416262 421264 429264 433263 435264 435267
      437270 441271 449270 453270 456269 475276 484280 487283
      492286 497290 503292 508292 513291
 0.01 518777 514759 513736 512725 511721 510717 508709 506702
      504695 501687 500680 498676 497673 490660 482647 473637
      469631 467629 466632 460644 458649 459651 464655 466656
      466659 460670 458678 457688 452687 447684 439673 435667
      431660 424649 420647 416649 391664 381662 374664 368668
      361671 356674 351676 349678 345684 330701 326705 322711
      315723 310732 307737 305744 303751 302757 300766 298773
      298777 300780 303785 306789 310787 322782 333776 342766
      346762 349756 356746 357742 360738 367740 372745 374749
      376757 377766 382777 383780 386781 392782 399783 398788
      391790 386795 381800 378805 373810 365813 360817 357822
      351830 348836 344840 340845 338848 338853 339857 341860
      345861 351862 353864 357863 363861 369860 374858 378857
      387857 392859 396862 404870 409871 414875 418878 420879
      425879 432878 438876 445873 450871 456874 461878 462882
      461886 459890 459895 460903 463908 467913 469913 470910
      475895 477887 482880 484875 484870 479857 474851 470847
      466846 465842 466836 466832 469831 474835 478840 483842
      493843 500842 505836 508832 513827 516811 516791 518777
 0.01 433251 432250 430249 428250 429251 431252 433251
 0.25 516275 517269 517264 516256 510244 506237 500232 498232
      497235 498238 501245 504253 501257 498255 497252 493246
      489241 486241 485244 480257 485261 488267 492274 496279
      500282 503283 507283 509280 516275
 0.25 528036 527029 525024 519018 511014 510011 506008 498003
      490002 492008 495012 498016 501018 504026 510033 518038
      525039 528036
 0.25 478241 478238 477236 476235 474237 473238 473239 475241
      476241 478241
 0.25 466745 466742 465740 464738 463738 461740 461741 461743
      462744 463745 465745 466745
 0.25 472989 470988 469986 467986 466986 467989 469990 470990
      472990 472989
 0.25 472880 472875 471871 469868 468866 466863 465861 464863
      462865 461869 462873 463876 465878 465883 467885 469885
      471883 472880
 0.25 446761 446755 444752 443746 444740 444736 442735 440737
      439741 434749 429752 428756 429761 431764 433766 438772
      442778 445775 445771 444767 445764 446761
 0.25 449860 448858 446857 445858 444858 443858 441860 440860
      439861 439863 440864 441864 443864 445864 447863 448861
      449860
 0.25 443798 444795 443793 443791 442788 440787 439789 438790
      438791 437794 437796 437799 439801 441802 442801 443799
      443798
 0.25 443822 439808 438805 434805 429804 429798 431790 431785
      430781 427780 423784 421790 416802 414809 414816 416818
      419816 422811 424808 425817 429824 434825 438825 443822
 0.25 425703 425699 424696 421697 415703 408708 405712 403708
      398699 394689 393682 391678 388675 385672 381672 377674
      369678 362684 355689 343702 332715 325732 319748 316758
      312766 324770 330763 333756 341740 345732 345730 349727
      358725 369723 373722 379722 383724 384726 390734 393737
      396738 400739 406739 410737 411732 414729 416726 418716
      419710 422708 425703
 0.25 425860 424859 422858 420859 419860 417860 415860 415861
      415863 415865 416865 417867 419866 420865 421864 422862
      424861 425860
 0.25 391801 391799 390798 388797 386798 385799 385800 383802
      381804 381805 381807 382809 384809 385808 387807 389806
      390803 391801
 0.50 514261 513258 512255 513258 514261 514261
 0.50 502275 501269 500266 497261 496257 494253 491249 490253
      491258 493264 495268 497273 500277 502276 502275
 0.50 391720 390718 389719 388719 388721 389723 390722 391720
 0.50 381690 381688 380686 380685 378686 378687 377689 376689
      375692 374694 374695 374697 374699 375701 377702 379702
      380700 381697 381695 381693 381692 381690

24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 536210 537202 535197 534193 532189 525174 522170 517168
      511168 505163 501161 498163 494165 490164 485158 480157
      480160 482164 484166 490173 494174 497177 502178 504179
      506182 510187 517193 521199 524210 528217 536210
 0.01 545098 543089 541083 540077 538072 531060 529055 526052
      521046 518043 512035 507029 504024 502020 498016 489010
      486007 483007 482009 478012 479020 483030 493053 496058
      499063 505070 519091 527097 536102 542100 545098
 0.01 520271 522264 523255 522248 522242 516226 511216 507208
      502201 494198 491195 487196 479199 473201 469207 465210
      461211 454216 453221 450225 445229 439236 434244 430252
      428255 425257 417260 410264 405269 401277 402288 402292
      404293 406296 413301 422304 427306 431305 436305 440306
      445308 447311 455314 461316 465317 469317 472314 475313
      479311 481309 484310 494309 498309 500306 510294 520271
 0.01 476692 474687 470683 465682 460679 460651 459644 456642
      453639 449639 431650 423656 412663 390673 385674 381672
      376672 370673 365676 362679 356685 350693 346697 344703
      341714 340727 338731 335735 330741 318756 315760 313765
      314768 316770 321772 326769 333767 341762 345759 350758
      357753 375756 393743 404737 411730 415722 419719 421713
      424711 428709 433706 437708 437712 435714 430716 428722
      426727 423729 423732 425734 426736 424739 422743 418745
      416750 416755 417767 417771 414774 410775 406780 403782
      393787 389791 384794 381798 377803 369811 362815 359819
      357822 358828 360827 368820 382818 386815 390811 394809
      399809 402810 404812 407817 411826 415830 418831 422829
      425825 430824 434826 440829 443832 448834 454833 456828
      458822 459818 461817 463814 466814 475810 478807 481807
      483796 483789 481784 468763 463760 459756 458754 457750
      457741 460731 460718 463713 466710 473705 476692
 0.01 485882 485872 485867 483865 481859 480852 478845 475842
      471840 466841 459842 456842 454840 450840 447843 444850
      440853 436855 431857 425855 422849 420846 418849 417852
      413854 412860 412866 414869 417873 422875 430876 437874
      441872 445869 450867 454867 458871 462881 462890 463895
      464897 467900 470899 483884 485882
 0.01 403922 402911 399905 395898 390892 386887 383881 379873
      375866 370861 365858 362856 359858 358860 359865 362873
      361881 365888 368894 376907 385918 390923 393925 396925
      403922
 0.01 359834 358832 357830 356829 355830 354830 353832 353833
      352835 352836 351837 351840 351842 352843 354842 354841
      355840 356839 357837 359834
 0.25 516265 516258 515253 513245 508232 501216 497211 489209
      481208 474209 466219 462226 460230 457231 452232 447236
      445240 444246 440252 431261 425265 420270 416275 415283
      415288 417292 420294 424296 430296 436294 442291 448289
      459287 466285 473285 478284 484282 498283 503281 507277
      509270 512267 516265
 0.25 442669 440668 436670 435671 432674 430677 429680 429681
      431683 435681 436680 438678 440675 442672 442669
 0.25 438760 437758 435756 434756 433756 432758 431759 431762
      431764 431766 433767 435768 436766 436765 437763 437762
      438760
 0.25 437818 437817 437816 435814 434814 433813 431812 430813
      429814 430815 432816 434818 435819 437818 437818
 0.25 424798 423794 422792 419791 418793 416796 415800 415804
      415807 415812 417811 419809 421807 422805 423801 424798
 0.25 393704 392697 390691 389686 386682 381683 377681 374681
      371683 369687 365699 361707 357716 356721 357725 360727
      371727 376726 381722 388716 391711 393706 393704
 0.50 511260 511251 508244 506238 503233 500225 496219 490218
      488221 489224 489230 487233 484234 481232 476228 473227
      471228 466232 464234 462239 459245 456249 451254 446258
      442260 438264 434269 429272 424275 421281 422285 426288
      433288 442284 454280 462276 475274 480273 484271 489267
      497269 500269 501267 501259 504255 507256 509260 511260
 0.50 379702 377698 377691 375688 373689 371693 370698 368703
      366705 363710 362713 363717 368718 373716 376712 378708
      379704 379702
 1.00 497255 493248 489242 485240 482241 480238 478235 474234
      470241 468253 466256 468260 476258 481255 488256 495256
      497255

24HR QP VT 13/00Z
 0.01 525260 523251 519241 517232 514225 510218 507215 507209
      509206 514207 517211 521213 525214 528218 533220 537215
      538211 538205 538200 537196 536195 531188 527179 524171
      518164 513162 509154 505148 498144 495142 492137 488131
      483129 480126 474130 470138 471141 475142 479143 481147
      477148 473146 466142 462143 459143 462151 461158 464162
      466167 467172 469172 473172 474176 474186 472190 469192
      460194 458192 457189 458185 462181 462176 458175 456174
      454170 454166 450165 445169 448174 452177 453179 452182
      447181 443183 441184 439187 439197 440201 439203 436205
      431208 426207 424205 422207 422210 421217 418219 415216
      412216 407220 407223 404226 397228 393227 389225 388225
      388228 390232 390236 391242 390249 390260 389264 391268
      394271 399272 413274 431273 440276 448276 455276 463274
      470275 476279 482283 491288 494291 498291 506291 514284
      521272
 0.01 546095 544079 541073 537069 533064 528059 520049 506029
      500018 495013 492008 478987 474982 471977 462964 459962
      454955 451950 449945 443933 436918 429908 427904 423900
      416901 413901 411900 405898 402903 400910 400921 401930
      402936 404943 408949 412954 417957 422961 426966 431970
      433974 437979 441983 445990 448995 460018 468027 470029
      474029 477027 479029 488039 494049 496056 499062 503068
      505072 507073 514085 517090 521094 530103 532106 535107
      538107 540105 542105 544100 546095
 0.01 474634 474628 472623 465624 460626 457630 452636 442647
      435649 426649 423648 418648 411649 401652 398655 395656
      386660 379664 371669 365675 360680 356687 353695 351704
      353716 356723 362729 368732 377733 385732 390730 393728
      400723 406717 410711 413703 418700 423701 430699 435694
      445679 448677 451674 456668 459659 461656 465652 468649
      471643 474634
 0.01 484872 476845 474840 473832 472823 468823 465829 465837
      463843 460842 457840 448837 446838 444840 441845 437849
      435852 432852 427848 422848 419848 418851 417856 420861
      424865 427867 432869 443868 450865 452865 455867 459871
      461874 459878 456889 457895 462900 466901 471900 477890
      484872
 0.01 466735 460713 462701 461695 459692 445701 443703 440709
      437712 437719 435724 432727 428726 425727 425732 427737
      428741 426743 423744 420742 417750 413756 409777 407782
      403785 397791 390796 386797 383801 380804 382810 387809
      389807 396800 399800 400798 406797 407799 408803 408810
      410814 411819 417826 420827 424825 430819 436824 444829
      448831 450833 454833 455828 456816 457810 458803 458797
      458791 460780 463771 464765 463760 459751 458748 459745
      462743 466735
 0.01 449192 449190 447188 446189 444191 443193 442195 443197
      445197 446197 447197 448194 449192
 0.25 520266 521260 521255 518247 512231 504216 500209 493204
      490202 486202 482201 479203 473205 467209 454215 450220
      443224 437226 429226 423230 420228 417229 410230 405235
      401241 400246 402249 408255 414257 429256 442252 448251
      458252 464257 468259 472260 479261 484268 494280 501284
      505285 509283 513280 515275 520266
 0.25 522194 523190 522186 519180 518177 514172 510169 504167
      495163 485158 482156 480156 479160 479165 480170 483176
      487177 491181 498190 504191 508195 518195 521196 522194
 0.50 519266 520260 519255 516248 512239 510232 506225 503218
      498212 495210 491208 483205 477206 465214 460217 456222
      454228 452231 446236 442239 436242 421238 419235 415234
      410235 407239 406242 412247 420250 425251 439247 451244
      458243 461243 464244 468246 470250 472253 475255 482258
      488265 496276 502280 508279 511273 513271 517269 519266
 0.50 487231 487230 485228 484227 482225 481224 479224 477225
      477226 477227 477228 478229 480230 481231 481232 483233
      484233 485233 487231 487231
 1.00 516259 509238 498218 490212 484211 477210 475213 478217
      482219 486223 490227 492232 492236 490238 485238 481239
      479235 476232 472234 471237 472240 475244 478249 483252
      496268 501270 501265 497253 494249 494242 498242 502246
      508255 511260 515262 516259
 1.00 473219 471218 470217 469218 469219 471219 473219
 1.50 503236 502230 500227 498222 495219 490219 489215 487215
      486220 489220 491222 492227 493230 495236 499239 502238
      503236
 1.50 495257 494254 494253 492251 492250 491248 491247 490245
      490244 488243 487242 485242 484243 483245 484247 485248
      486249 487250 488252 489252 489255 490255 491257 493258
      495257
 1.50 477238 477237 475237 477239 477238

$$




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