Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 28/0000 UTC THRU NOV 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD DRIVE A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GREAT LAKES. A SUFFICIENT
NORTHWEST FETCH WILL BE IN PLACE FOR NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND A
FEW SQUALLS DOWNWIND OF ESP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL FAVOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA/WESTERN NY AND LOCALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
TAPER DOWN LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL PIVOT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE PAC
NW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITHIN THE ELONGATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WITH 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FLUX ANOMALIES PEAKING GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE SREF/GEFS ACROSS THE PAC
NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.00" INTO
THE NRN CA/SRN OR COASTAL RANGES INVOLVING THE LARGER SCALE
MOISTURE RIBBON/ELONGATED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WHICH EXTENDS WELL
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. THE INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AND WAA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL
FOSTER MODERATE TO HEAVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS THE CASCADES
AND ALSO THE COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHWEST OR/NORTHWEST CA WHERE
WATER EQUIVS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WPC QPF LEANED RATHER
STRONGLY TOWARD THE 09Z SREF...WITH AMOUNTS TWEAKED TO ACCOUNT FOR
TOPOGRAPHY AND THE DEEPER LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW. PLEASE REFER TO
THE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS FAVOR A STREAK OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AND SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION ADVANCING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A STRIPE OF LIGHT
TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL...BUT WATER EQUIVS MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE UNDER A 0.25 INCH. PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER
DETAILS REGARDING THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 553146 555127 554112 556084 557067 555064 556059 556051
      553041 552036 552031 549020 546006 544998 540992 537987
      534983 530976 520970 517970 514967 508965 505962 502958
      499954 496952 492944 491939 487934 484909 483879 482867
      479854 471840 466834 459834 455831 455826 457822 458817
      456813 452801 445796 437790 439783 439777 438773 439768
      442760 446756 447752 447748 449746 449741 448735 451733
      454728 455723 456717 459712 463709 466705 465700 462698
      457700 454700 451701 448706 445708 441712 436712 431703
      432697 433694 433689 431682 427678 424677 420678 415679
      412682 408684 406688 403697 424716 428718 430725 429729
      427730 423733 428737 425741 425746 426752 424756 423759
      424766 423772 419776 412783 395789 386794 379800 366811
      361816 357821 352830 349835 347841 348844 349845 353843
      357837 362827 363824 366823 368822 370825 365836 363840
      363846 366844 368840 371836 372831 373826 375822 381815
      387810 394806 399805 405805 408808 410812 412833 413836
      414841 414848 415854 417859 426879 429884 431891 434904
      438912 439918 442929 445942 448953 452962 457974 461981
      465990 469997 476012 482022 485026 486032 488046 490053
      492058 497079 498087 499090 502095 502100 497108 490113
      485116 482119 478118 469120 464120 460118 461114 464114
      470110 470105 469104 465102 458099 454095 452094 448094
      443096 440093 436093 434096 428091 429096 431099 432102
      430106 426106 423107 425112 429113 434112 438112 440112
      441115 445121 448122 449126 449133 447136 441132 439132
      436135 433149 432155 434159 425167 428171 430173 429177
      427182 425184 422187 423190 430190 431194 429196 421198
      416200 413203 407208 402214 400217 399223 394224 391223
      388223 385226 380233 370261
 0.01 370261 370266 370272 378276 384294 389296 394296 402294
      406293 408290 414284 420277 426272 432268 436266 440266
      445266 450267 457265 465262 468261 473264 476273 479282
      484291 490297 495300 500301 508302 542201 542198 543195
      543193 544190 544188 544185 545183 545182 546180 546177
      547175 548172 549170 549167 550165
 0.01 476197 477193 476190 473187 468186 465187 461188 458191
      456197 458201 463202 466205 469202 472199 476197 476197
 0.01 432823 430820 429817 429812 428808 424808 421811 420813
      418816 418820 417823 415826 419827 420825 423822 427824
      429824 431825 432823
 0.25 546139 547133 547127 546119 546109 544100 541089 536074
      531064 528059 524055 516049 513045 510040 505036 505039
      504039 503044 505052 507065 508073 510080 515093 519107
      520119 520128 519135 514141 509142 502141 495138 489131
      485128 481126 478125 471125 468130 467134 464136 459137
      444146 440145 438147 436153 438161 442165 446175 445179
      444181 441186 441192 440196 439201 438203 434207 429207
      426207 424209 424214 423218 421224 419228 416229 413227
      414223 414219 410218 408221 407225 404229 399231 392238
      389243 387249 387254 391257 397258 399260 399264 397271
      393277 390282 390288 393290 396290 402288 409282 417273
      423265 432259 436257 441256 452256 462253 468251 474251
      477252 480254 483259 489268 496277 500281 505280 508275
      508269 509265 512267 517266 519262 518257 516251 513235
      507225 502212 500208 494205 494202 492200 487200 480199
      477201 472204 468207 457208 454209 450209 447203 448197
      446194 449193 450196 452195 454188 458185 462181 464173
      474171 478173 481178 490186 495190 502193 509203 514204
      518208 522213 525213 530211 533207 535201 537195 541178
      543166 544155 546139
 0.25 502257 502255 501254 500252 500251 499249 499248 498246
      497244 497243 496241 495240 494241 495242 496244 496245
      497247 498248 498250 499252 499253 500255 501256 501257
      502257
 0.25 491235 491232 490228 488226 486225 483224 481225 478225
      478228 481231 483234 484236 487236 489236 491235
 0.25 484148 483146 483145 481144 480143 478143 476143 475144
      475146 476147 478148 479148 481149 483150 484148
 0.50 533192 533179 533168 532163 530159 525158 517154 511152
      504146 498144 486131 480128 471128 471138 474140 478140
      483142 485144 489151 493153 494157 492158 489156 474150
      468144 464142 460142 448150 441154 442159 444162 448170
      450172 453171 458161 460160 463161 468167 471169 474168
      488176 494180 503182 513194 520199 523202 527203 531198
      533192
 0.50 512255 509240 508235 505230 501218 498212 495208 490204
      483202 474205 466210 457212 451213 445215 442214 438212
      434214 428213 425218 423222 425227 422231 415232 409229
      402237 398240 397248 403250 406256 404264 401269 396278
      393283 396287 402285 406281 413274 420265 427258 431255
      436252 441250 445249 465247 471246 476247 480247 483248
      486253 492263 494267 497269 499270 501267 501261 498256
      493245 490241 487239 483239 481234 478230 475229 475224
      480223 486223 489224 492226 496237 502246 507258 510259
      512255
 0.50 527089 527087 527086 526084 525084 524083 523086 524088
      524089 525092 527092 527091 527089
 1.00 518180 519173 517169 516166 513166 511168 507169 499165
      491165 487163 483163 485168 487170 492173 500172 505174
      511179 515181 518180
 1.00 498232 497224 495217 491211 486206 479207 474209 465215
      458217 452216 445217 438216 427220 428226 428230 427232
      414236 412244 412252 409261 406268 406273 408272 412269
      430249 434243 437235 446228 452225 455224 459226 462228
      465226 470223 476221 482220 493219 495229 497232 498232
 1.00 494145 492140 490137 487134 483132 478131 474133 476135
      479137 482138 485140 488144 491146 494145
 1.00 480241 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232 475232 474232
      473233 471233 469235 468237 468238 470240 471241 473241
      475242 476242 478242 480241
 1.00 473161 475159 474156 472154 471152 469149 467147 464145
      462146 462151 462153 463156 466158 469160 471161 473161
 1.00 461238 463236 462234 460233 459234 457234 455234 453235
      452235 451236 450235 448236 448237 447238 447239 449240
      451240 452240 454239 456240 458240 459239 460239 461238
      461238
 1.50 488216 488210 486209 483208 481209 477210 476211 474212
      472214 471217 475219 478219 481219 483218 486218 488216
 1.50 478238 477235 476234 474234 473237 474237 475238 477238
      478238
 1.50 448224 450222 449219 447218 445218 442218 438218 436219
      434221 432224 432227 433229 436228 439226 441226 444225
      446225 448224
 1.50 429245 429240 427237 423236 418237 416241 416248 415253
      414257 413260 415261 418259 421255 424252 426249 429245
 2.00 485215 485212 484210 483210 481210 479211 477212 475214
      474214 475216 477217 478217 480217 481216 482216 484215
      485215
 2.00 447221 445220 443220 441219 440221 439221 439222 441223
      443224 444223 445223 446221 447221
 2.00 425247 427245 427242 427240 426239 425238 423238 421237
      420238 419238 418240 418242 418243 418244 418247 418249
      419251 421251 422250 423250 424248 425247 425247

$$




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