Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 161900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 17/0000 UTC THRU DEC 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


-DAY 1...

...WEST...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL HAVE AN ASSORTMENT OF FULL-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES HELPING TO
REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  THE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED ACROSS CA IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL REACH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CA COASTLINE LATE TUES INTO WED
MORNING...WHILE YET ANOTHER ELONGATED N-S SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD (BY 00Z THU 12/18). EACH
SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND PAC
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A SURGE OF HIGHER (YET NOT OVERLY
ANOMALOUS) PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THIS WILL DEFINITELY ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF CA WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN THE SIERRA RANGE...ALONG
WITH SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN
BERNARDINO AND SAN GABRIEL RANGES IN SOUTHERN CA.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THE FAVORABLE FORCING...THE DEEPER MOISTURE
(HIGHER PWATS) WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY ADVANCING MUCH DOWNSTREAM INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST REGION... SO EXPECT LIGHTER QPF
AMOUNTS FROM AZ/NV NORTHEASTWARD (WITH AN ENHANCED AXIS OF HIGHER
QPF ALONG THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON RIM). WPC
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF
FOR QPF AMOUNTS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL...PLEASE REFER TO THE HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION OR
QPFHSD.


...EAST...

THE VERY WELL DEFINED H5 LOW NOW IN VICINITY OF SOUTHERN LOWER MI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM BUT SHEAR-OUT INTO
THE NORTHEAST... WHILE A DIGGING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. OVER TIME DURING THE DAY
1 PERIOD...THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
NEW SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...ALONG THE
SHARPENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE CYCLOGENETIC PROCESS
(DEEPINNG COASTAL LOW) WILL LEAD TO AN EXPANDING TROWAL ZONE AND
SHARPENING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION AXIS...WHICH WILL FUEL MDT QPF
AMOUNTS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...WITH
MOD-HEAVY PCPN ASSCD WITHIN THE WCB AND DEVELOPING TROWAL ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. AREAL-AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN .25 AND .50
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER WITH AMOUNTS
AVERAGING BETWEEN .50 AND 1+ INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO INCLUDE NH AND SOUTHERN ME.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 439631 450634 455637 460643 470653 474658 478666 484685
      488693 494701 498710 502717 505725 506738 506745 507756
      509781 506790 504798 502805 500816 502825 503840 503847
      502854 503869 503876 501881 500888 494906 492912 488917
      482922 479927 472928 469927 467925 462918 459909 456898
      452890 442878 436873 430870 415865 396852 378828 373824
      366827 361828 359831 355838 352841 350842 346840 348837
      353830 356823 359818 363813 367809 373804 378799 384795
      389791 394789 397786 404780 407778 409774 409763 404760
      398754 394753 390755 373759 368762 364767 356779 348781
      340782 335782 332784 328790 324796 321803 315816 313821
      310824 305827 302828 295832 290839 285850 279862 273875
      270882 267888 264896 264901 262905 259924 256942 256964
      258964 259961 262962 263964 270968 275972 281966 285964
      304963 312959 318954 325949 330947 336943 341937 346932
      352927 359926 363930 368944 371965 373971 375974 378976
      382983 380992 375001 370007 364012 361014 357014 353016
      351019 348026 345030 340032 334034 325033 318032 312029
      304016 290008 273009 268015 263013 255009 250006 231994
      231980 242976 244970 246967 246962 246954 244952 244948
      248933 248927 250924 250920 253905 259880 261874 264868
      269855 273845 275838 278833 285823 295817 299813 302806
      308796 317772 327748 334732
 0.01 334732 336728 334725 337716 341708 347701 352695 359689
      367683 369675 372671 375667 381661 387655 391653 391646
 0.01 519274 521266 522258 517248 515240 512235 509230 507224
      504219 499214 496212 492211 490212 487211 485206 480201
      477201 471203 465208 461205 459205 458208 457212 455213
      450214 445214 441214 438212 435205 430202 425198 420201
      413199 411201 407200 404198 398198 390193 383184 388169
      389164 387162 382159 378155 376149 376141 379136 382129
      386125 388121 389113 390109 393108 398106 400103 401099
      403095 406081 411076 416073 416064 415062 413061 411062
      407060 407056 405056 400053 397053 395055 391057 389061
      385063 384071 381071 379066 374062 370062 368061 368058
      372055 374050 369050 358055 351057 352060 353063 350063
      344063 342068 340075 337078 332081 326081 324089 319093
      316097 315101 314105 309106 307108 305112 304120 306132
      310133 316134 320134 323139 325144 325151 326153 329153
      332155 333160 328161 320159 314156 307153 304155 302156
      304158 307162 309163 309166 307170 306177 305181 307183
      312184 314183 316186 314191 315196 319201 324205 327207
      327211 328217 333222 339231 353235 364238 374242 383250
      391258 400266 412274 418276 423274 433273 442272 450267
      455266 461266 472268 479270 484273 494283 503289 510292
      513285 519274
 0.01 490232 490230 488229 487227 485226 484227 483230 485231
      486232 488232 490233 490232
 0.01 484103 481100 473100 469100 466102 462103 460101 454097
      452095 448094 440093 436095 433095 429091 427093 428097
      429101 427103 423104 421107 422110 420112 415116 414122
      416122 420122 421128 420133 422136 423140 425141 427139
      429138 430142 430147 431152 434156 438163 443170 444174
      442178 440180 439186 438192 440195 448183 454182 461182
      463179 460177 454171 455169 456163 456159 454156 451153
      454149 458145 463141 467134 468130 471128 472118 476107
      481105 484103
 0.01 484088 483085 482082 480079 478079 475078 472078 471081
      471084 473086 474089 478090 479092 481090 483090 484088
 0.01 452127 453125 453122 451119 450120 449121 448124 447126
      446128 447130 449130 450130 451129 452127 452127
 0.01 433128 432126 431125 430124 429125 428127 430130 431130
      433128
 0.25 515275 517267 515257 513250 510241 508235 503231 499226
      497227 496234 495241 493242 489239 485239 483240 477243
      472245 470247 469253 480260 487264 492269 496273 503278
      508280 513279 515275
 0.25 494787 493777 488771 481767 475762 463755 456753 447752
      442747 440745 435744 431747 429750 427755 428762 432768
      437773 441781 445793 452809 452813 455818 456821 455827
      449843 445850 443855 443859 445861 451864 454865 458867
      459872 460878 459883 460890 462898 464902 467903 473897
      477890 478880 478866 480856 482851 483844 485837 488828
      491819 493807 494797 494787
 0.25 464700 463692 461686 454678 446669 442662 441655 444651
      445649 443645 440641 435639 429639 423641 418643 413648
      405654 402658 399663 395666 388666 381669 377673 366691
      362695 357698 352703 349709 346719 346726 345732 333753
      332755 333759 338758 346750 350747 356743 365736 373730
      381722 390715 399706 404704 409706 413710 413714 412716
      407720 403725 398730 394732 386740 395739 402737 409736
      415736 421737 426737 431735 436734 441736 444736 448734
      452730 456724 457719 464700
 0.25 434259 434256 431253 429249 430243 428238 424235 421232
      420228 424223 419222 417218 406210 400205 392201 385197
      378191 373185 368180 363178 360179 352182 348183 347182
      344173 344168 339166 336165 332164 327163 321167 322170
      325173 331175 336180 337184 337190 339199 340204 342208
      344215 346223 351225 356226 367228 375232 380237 386242
      394249 409256 413262 416265 421267 425267 429266 434259
 0.25 447111 447109 446106 446105 444104 442103 441104 439104
      438105 437107 436109 437111 437112 438112 440113 441114
      442115 443116 444116 445115 446114 447112 447111
 0.25 432788 431781 429781 424784 421786 417790 416795 416800
      416807 417809 419809 421806 424802 426798 428794 431790
      432788
 0.25 416677 414675 412673 410672 408671 405670 404670 404675
      405679 406682 408684 412684 415682 416679 416677
 0.25 395796 395795 393794 391795 390796 388797 386798 385800
      383802 382805 383805 385804 386804 387804 388802 390801
      392800 393798 395796 395796
 0.25 378078 379076 378074 377073 376073 375073 374075 374078
      376079 377080 378078
 0.25 368140 368135 365133 360129 355124 350121 345116 342111
      339105 337102 334101 328101 326103 324107 323111 325113
      328115 333115 336116 338118 339121 340126 337132 335139
      341143 346143 349145 350148 350153 352156 356153 357148
      360145 368140
 0.25 350958 349952 348949 346951 343955 340960 336964 331967
      321972 316974 312977 309983 310986 312985 319976 322976
      324984 326988 332988 337985 341981 346970 350958
 0.25 315118 315116 314116 312117 311118 310118 310119 310121
      312122 313120 314119 315118
 0.50 513271 514265 513258 512253 511249 508244 506240 503237
      500243 501248 503254 504260 505264 508268 511272 513271
 0.50 500269 499265 497260 495256 493251 491247 488243 485244
      482247 482252 486256 489259 492262 495267 498270 500269
 0.50 469779 468773 466768 463765 458763 455763 451765 453769
      456773 458777 460781 464784 468781 469779
 0.50 457699 457695 456691 453686 444678 440676 436676 432678
      430683 427690 425702 426709 423715 422720 422724 425726
      428726 433722 436720 439721 445720 449718 451710 457699
 0.50 426264 426262 424261 422262 421262 420263 420264 420265
      422265 423265 424265 426264 426264
 0.50 424241 423238 419236 415235 413232 415222 414218 410218
      406216 402210 396205 387201 364184 358183 355186 359189
      365193 371199 377202 381208 393219 391221 387221 385224
      383223 379224 375216 362209 349200 346198 345203 347210
      351217 357221 364224 373226 377227 380230 385237 390241
      397245 401246 405245 408240 410239 416241 420242 424241
 0.50 391706 388703 385694 382689 380687 376687 367695 362698
      357703 354706 351713 352719 351727 351735 351741 357739
      361735 369727 379720 384716 387712 391706
 0.50 353151 353148 353147 352148 352150 352152 353151
 0.50 346187 345182 344178 343173 343170 341169 338170 338167
      336167 330165 328165 327168 329171 333173 336176 340179
      341184 344188 346187
 1.00 445693 443692 443691 441689 440691 439692 440694 441694
      442694 443694 445693
 1.00 441699 440697 440696 440697 440699 441699 441699
 1.00 400239 401237 400235 400234 399233 397232 395232 393231
      391232 390234 391235 392237 394237 394238 396239 397239
      399240 400239
 1.00 401216 401213 400212 398211 398210 397209 395208 394207
      393207 392206 391209 392211 393212 394213 396214 396215
      398216 399216 401216
 1.00 374713 373712 371712 369713 368714 370715 371715 373714
      374713
 1.00 366218 365217 363216 362215 361215 360217 361218 363219
      364220 366218
 1.00 370716 368714 366715 364716 364717 365718 366718 368718
      370716
 1.00 364719 363718 361720 363720 364719
 1.00 357212 357211 355211 356212 357212

$$




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