Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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740
FXUS04 KWBC 090650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 10/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...COASTAL LOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
CYCLONE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.  COMPOSITE RADAR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SOME PRECIPITATION WAS LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH PCPN WAS GRADUALLY COMING TO
AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BY LATER TODAY...ONLY SOME
LIGT PCPN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST FACING AND NORTH FACING
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
ME.

...COLD TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HI RH
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  A MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST FLOW HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH WHAT IS STILL A
DISORGANIZED AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER COAST.  AS THIS LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED LATER
TODAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FORM AND EXTEND WEST OF THE
LOW.  THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD HELP THE
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES.  THE 09/00Z GFS...NAM AND UKMET WERE MOST
HEAVILY USED WHILE PREPARING THE MANUAL WPC QPF...ALTHOUGH WE WERE
ABLE TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 00Z ARW/NMMB TO FOCUS SOME OF THE
HEAVIER QPF.

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING FROM -12C TO -21C.
NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND OVER WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN LOWER MI TO THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT KEYED IN ON THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS
BEING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WE SAW LITTLE REASON TO MAKE
CHANGES THERE.

...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA...

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH LEADS TO SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHICH FORM AND FAIRLY MODEST RAFL RATES/AMOUNTS.  WPC QPF
RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS FOR THIS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 563046 560043 557036 555023 554018 551014 547011 542010
      524003 508993 498989 491984 487982 482981 474976 465971
      456969 445968 436973 435978 434985 436990 438994 437996
      434996 432999 431003 429004 426008 429021 432023 435022
      434017 436014 439014 447022 456025 462033 467041 470046
      475049 482056 490059 497064 505070 508071 510074 515074
      522072 528079 535088 541095 545098 549099 551095 554089
      555082 555077 556073 558055 563046
 0.01 509288 509281 507276 505272 504265 504258 502254 495246
      478244 472243 468244 465245 459244 442249 438248 434250
      430251 426254 427257 429258 433258 443258 452258 462258
      466258 471259 480265 485268 488271 495279 502286 506289
      509288
 0.01 335683 336688 333695 325704 320713 316724 306746 313775
      315792 317798 319796 324795 326795 328792 331787 336778
      342768 345763 350758 356750 360748 362749 367753 371756
      372759 372763 372771 373776 375779 383786 385789 384792
      382796 372804 370809 366813 361817 357821 350831 347836
      342839 338834 333837 332843 333849 329858 337867 340868
      341871 345876 351884 355888 358888 361890 366892 369887
      368878 374874 391864 391867 393870 393878 397894 400898
      404901 409899 417898 420898 422896 430895 435892 442895
      448894 451897 453901 455904 459907 463912 465913 468913
      472910 474904 477899 481891 483885 486879 488873 492868
      496863 499855 505844 507839 509833 513817 515802 516786
      517769 515747 514737 512724 510719 509710 506703 505695
      493665 490659 486654 480645 472636 469631 467629 465632
      456653 451654 448657 439668 432678 428683 425688 424694
      423698 421700 420693 422684 423678 423672 420666 418664
      415665 408667 404668 401667 392664 380661 379659 377660
      372663 366668 361671 345676
 0.01 447717 446705 445693 443689 439687 433693 430699 426708
      419709 416713 416717 419725 426726 435725 444722 447717
 0.25 552061 552060 551058 551057 550058 551060 552061 552061
 0.25 550050 550047 547045 544044 542043 539043 536043 534045
      536048 538051 540054 541056 543057 545057 548055 549052
      550050
 0.25 518028 517024 516022 513020 509020 506021 504022 503026
      505029 506032 509034 512034 514033 517030 518028
 0.25 475882 475877 474875 471868 469861 468858 465858 463864
      463868 463873 466881 467888 465895 465903 468900 471895
      473888 475882
 0.25 456842 456835 454830 451828 450823 447819 444817 435814
      432813 426814 424817 425824 429832 431837 434837 438835
      443834 448836 450840 452845 454845 456842
 0.25 451857 450856 448857 447858 446858 445860 443861 445861
      446861 448861 450860 451857
 0.25 426864 426862 424860 422859 420859 419859 417860 417861
      416863 416865 416868 417868 419869 421868 423867 424866
      426865 426864
 0.25 418811 418809 417808 417809 417811 418813 418811
 0.25 408759 407749 405743 403725 401715 398710 395705 391699
      387695 386691 387687 385683 384681 381680 375680 368681
      362683 356687 353691 350696 347700 346708 347717 350722
      356722 360718 367709 371713 373720 373729 376737 381748
      384757 385763 385767 390771 399778 405777 408775 407771
      408759
 0.25 403795 401790 397791 394794 390796 386799 384802 382807
      385809 387808 393810 396807 399803 401800 403795
 0.50 398728 398724 394721 388714 384713 381716 378725 378732
      380738 383741 385745 387750 389753 392754 393752 393745
      389735 390732 392738 396740 398735 398728
 0.50 399765 399763 399762 398763 398765 399766 399765

$$





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