Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 110858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EST MON DEC 11 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 11/1200 UTC THRU DEC 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

NORTHERN PLAINS..UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GT LAKES..NEW ENGLAND

THE ONLY HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL FALL ACROSS THIS
REGION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES..AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACCOMPANIES A PAIR OF CLIPPER S/WV FEATURES DROPPING SEWD FROM
CANADA.  INITIAL S/WV WILL SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK ACRS SRN WI AND THROUGH SRN LOWER MI MON NIGHT.  A SECONDARY
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP NORTH OF THIS WAVE ACRS THE NRN GT LAKES
IN RESPONSE TO A STGR S/WV THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WRN AND
CNTL LAKES REGION WITH THE LOWS EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATING TOWARD
LAKE ERIE BY TUES MORNING AS SYSTEMS BEGIN TO PHASE.  THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
WITH STG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
LOCAL .25"+ LIQUID EQUIVS JUST NORTH OF THE SRN LOW TRACK AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE CNTL U.P. OF MI AND THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE MI
WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE NWLY FETCH BEHIND THE DEEPENING SFC
SYSTEM. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS RATHER SMALL AND SO A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND HIER RES GUIDANCE WAS GENLY PREFERRED.   FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON SNOW...PLEASE SEE QPFHSD.

DAYS 2/3...

WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A CONSENSUS VALUE FROM THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/UKMET...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE
ECMWF AND GFS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.
BETWEEN A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE THAT SETS UP STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE FROM VT TO ME AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW...THERE SHOULD BE A BROAD
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON
DAY 2.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DAY 2/3 QPF
DISCUSSION...THERE IS CONCERN OVER MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES...SO REFER TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE WPC WINTER
WEATHER DESK.  H85 FLOW OF 45 KTS TO 55 KTS WILL BE DRAWING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE OVER ME WHERE THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS DIRECTED UPSLOPE
BY THOSE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE QPF ENHANCEMENT
FROM THE LOW/MID LEVEL FROTOGENESIS.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL ADVECTION WILL
SET UP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
ONE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ON THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE THERE WILL BE A LONG FETCH ACROSS THE OPEN...AND RELATIVELY
WARM...WATERS.  A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL SET UP-LATE DAY 2 INTO DAY
3 OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND UPSTATE NY AS THE FLOW ENCOUNTERS THE
TERRAIN.

...UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE DRY...LEADING
TO GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  HAVING SAID THAT...LOCALIZED
BANDING MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 501282 503277 503271 500264 493248 491245 488243 481243
      468243 462245 456249 455254 452256 445258 442258 440261
      441264 445267 446269 451271 458271 473272 480273 483272
      485272 486274 490281 493284 497285 501282
 0.01 517046 515040 512035 506027 492008 485997 480987 477981
      474974 471962 469956 468948 467940 468937 470935 476922
      479909 482904 484899 490889 495886 499880 501874 501865
      499859 502854 506850 508846 511838 512831 511821 510814
      509811 506811 504810 504806 503798 502794 501790 499787
      499783 496777 495774 492774 489780 486783 484786 481784
      479779 475776 473772 474768 474759 475742 474735 470732
      459729 456724 455722 453718 453713 454708 446710 442707
      438705 434703 430702 427708 423713 409728 405739 405750
      403755 399767 398772 398778 396786 392790 383797 376807
      372812 367815 359822 357824 357828 359830 365821 369819
      373821 376823 381818 383816 386819 388824 389832 391835
      396837 403838 407841 408844 407849 404845 398843 394842
      395844 397848 400852 408861 411867 412875 412883 413886
      415889 417893 418901 419905 420907 424912 428917 431923
      433938 434944 435951 441981 439984 437983 430982 426978
      424980 426985 429990 436997 440000 447000 454006 462016
      469025 474029 479034 483036 487040 497046 505050 514051
      517046
 0.01 468656 464644 461638 458639 453640 449644 440650 426663
      413677 398688 392697 391702 391709 394711 399713 404711
      407707 418691 421688 425686 431684 435684 440683 444681
      452674 456670 458666 461662 466660 468656
 0.01 467684 466684 465685 463685 461686 461688 462689 464690
      465688 465687 466685 467684
 0.01 264792 260792 255792 251794 246795 240797 235798 232800
      235803 241802 245801 248798 253797 259796 262794 264792
 0.25 449660 449655 446654 443656 442658 439660 437663 436666
      435669 437672 440672 443670 445668 447665 448662 449660
 0.25 466873 466865 464860 460856 459854 457854 452857 448858
      442858 438858 433856 431855 429852 428850 425852 424858
      422860 422862 426866 430867 435865 445866 451866 457864
      459865 464868 466873
 0.25 460822 461819 460816 457813 449810 442807 438804 437799
      437794 438788 440784 441777 441772 440765 437753 433752
      430756 427765 425775 420783 416792 416804 417809 420813
      423818 423825 424831 426834 433828 435827 441826 445827
      448826 460822

24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 513288 501270 493262 483258 477256 471256 463259 454262
      446265 429274 429272 432265 439258 454248 457246 463245
      474247 481249 491250 512255 519257 522259 524261
 0.01 487614 491620 496628 501637 504646 513665 515672 517679
      519686 520694 522707 522715 521720 522726 521731 518737
      513745 509752 502759 494764 491767 488768 483769 481772
      484798 484806 483811 476816 467821 460827 454833 450834
      447832 441828 434826 431824 427824 425820 422820 413822
      404818 398814 395817 395820 403825 407833 411840 414845
      419846 439848 455852 459850 461847 463846 465847 472852
      475861 478864 480870 481874 479880 475886 475890 478892
      484897 487899 489901 492899 498902 502903 507908 514911
      520916 532924 543935 547941 550949 553964 552973 550977
      547979 544979 541982 539987 535993 532995 528993 521986
      513978 507973 500970 493967 487962 484957 482952 484949
      487949 489951 489947 484940 479935 474927 467913 463901
      461888 462884 462880 459875 456871 450872 449872 448870
      446869 440870 436871 429874 420873 414870 412868 410864
      405856 399850 395844 392841 387838 382834 379832 377835
      374839 370842 368846 365849 359855 355857 356852 359850
      362846 363842 364836 353841 352839 353834 355827 356822
      360819 366813 377800 382794 387790 391787 396785 402781
      405776 405771 406768 406765 404759 405754 405746 403741
      402734 398727 395729 393732 384744 381748 378751 375754
      371753 363750 360748 355750 349755 343758 335763 331765
      327766 320772 313778 306786 301794 299796 295796 295792
      293788 294782 296775 300767 304761 307757 308752 311743
      321732 325724 331717 343701 348695 356689 408647 415643
      420637
 0.01 520078 519071 519065 518062 514058 513055 515051 517047
      518044 517041 511032 503024 501020 500013 482002 480999
      478999 472000 466999 461001 457004 454010 458012 465011
      480017 482023 486027 490030 493036 490040 487044 487051
      490056 507070 509075 513079 520078
 0.01 479942 479939 477937 476934 472932 471932 469929 467930
      465932 466935 467937 469940 471942 472945 474947 477947
      479944 479942
 0.01 263782 262778 260778 255784 251789 247795 245803 243809
      246813 252808 256803 259796 261788 263782
 0.01 241797 240797 238796 237796 236795 235795 233796 231797
      229798 229799 230800 232801 233802 235801 237800 239798
      240798 241797
 0.25 507683 506677 504668 498653 492643 485635 479630 473627
      468626 458626 452628 449628 446631 438638 431648 428652
      428657 426659 419666 412673 420680 418690 416697 416703
      420714 421722 418728 417735 416743 419752 425756 424763
      425773 424780 420783 417787 414793 413798 413805 413810
      414813 418812 420811 430806 436804 442805 458776 463767
      467762 471758 479750 486742 494735 498731 501725 505713
      507699 507689 507683
 0.25 473878 473874 471872 470868 469865 467862 464863 461864
      462869 463871 465873 466876 468878 470880 471880 473878
 0.25 446860 445860 443859 441859 440859 439859 438858 436858
      434858 433859 431859 433861 434862 436862 438863 440863
      441863 443863 444863 445861 446860
 0.25 429862 427860 426858 423858 420857 418856 415855 413856
      413861 415863 417865 419866 423866 426865 428864 429862
 0.25 389705 383707 374709 366712 362713 359716 355721 352728
      351732 352734 354734 361730 369728 376724 381718 386713
      388706 389705
 0.25 395793 393793 390794 388796 386798 384800 383802 381805
      379807 382807 383806 385804 388801 390800 392798 394796
      395793
 0.50 500693 499684 496677 495679 494683 492682 491676 491667
      493669 493666 489665 484653 479648 474644 466642 460642
      455643 448650 446653 443655 441657 440661 433685 428695
      426702 426707 428712 431715 432719 431723 428728 431731
      435734 437735 440734 442732 444727 444725 445718 448714
      450707 451705 455705 457707 456713 453720 451728 448740
      446744 439746 429769 428783 426789 423790 419792 417795
      417803 417806 420806 424802 430794 433790 436782 437777
      437774 441773 450764 456762 458756 459751 463745 467742
      472740 482731 491724 497714 499703 500693
 1.00 453686 453685 451686 453686 453686
 1.00 444693 443691 440691 438693 435695 434698 434701 434704
      436707 438707 440706 441703 442699 443696 444693

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 472619 478625 484628 494637 499642 504649 507657 509661
      510666 513677 515692 516700 515706 516714 515721 510741
      509747 506753 502760 490772 485772 481771 479770 467764
      462763 458764 455764 453762 450759 446759 441761 440765
      439772 440781 442792 443800 442805 444810 447814 450818
      453823 458830 464834 469840 474844 477850 485866 487870
      490873 495878 506888 512894 519901 524908 528917 533926
      536936 543954 544964 545971 544976 541980 538981 536979
      523973 519973 516971 509970 505980 498985 494984 491979
      489979 489983 492987 497995 503001 508005 511008 515009
      520014 522015 524020 524025 525029 527032 531033 539035
      546040 551046 555053 554056 552057 549054 544049 539047
      536048 531050 529054 526058 521062 517063 512062 504061
      501059 499055 495048 492041 489033 486029 482028 476026
      469022 463017 461013 461008 468003 470001 469998 467995
      458989 453983 449979 448976 450971 454966 459962 462961
      465959 467954 466949 464942 463929 461920 455916 450909
      448905 445902 441904 439903 437891 433883 427875 423872
      418873 414875 408875 404874 401871 400867 399862 400851
      403844 403836 401834 400827 397819 396815 393812 391810
      387809 379807 379803 381800 384797 388795 394789 397786
      402783 404780 407780 409777 413776 418773 423763 424759
      423753 425748 427745 432745 437744 437738 437735 436732
      434732 431731 430728 433725 436724 439722 439719 440716
      447709 454702 457697 459692 459688 458682 451680 442682
      440680 437681 434679 430678 424680 419686 411691 409693
      405695 399693 395685 392675 391670 392666 394659 400653
      407646 416643 419644 422644 426642 430642 434644 441648
      444652 447653 450651 458644 451641 447635 445629
 0.01 471645 472642 470641 469643 469644 467644 466645 465645
      464644 462644 461645 459647 461648 463648 464647 466649
      468649 470650 471648 471645 471645
 0.01 466073 466070 466068 466066 465065 464064 463062 462062
      461061 459060 457060 456061 456063 455064 454066 454069
      455070 456071 457073 458074 458075 460076 462076 463076
      464075 465074 466073
 0.01 454110 455108 454106 453105 453104 452102 451102 450101
      448100 446100 445101 444103 444104 446105 447106 448107
      449108 451109 451110 452111 454111 454110
 0.01 442045 442038 441033 438030 436029 435026 433022 428023
      426025 424029 424037 428038 431040 434043 438046 442045
 0.25 502708 501699 499693 495678 493674 490673 487675 484678
      482683 480689 479691 476693 472696 468700 467705 468709
      470711 474710 480711 485709 484715 484720 487724 492725
      496721 499717 501710 502708

$$





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