Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 300700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 30/1200 UTC THRU JUL 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...

MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL RETURN AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON MOSTLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  GIVEN WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...THE
FORCING WILL BE LARGELY A RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...WITH
THE SCALE OF THE CONVECTION LIKELY TOO SMALL TO RESOLVE BY THE
COURSER GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.  IN TERMS OF AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS
OVER A 20 KM GRID... MOST AREAS RECEIVING RAIN WILL RANGE BETWEEN
.01 AND .10 INCH. RELIED INSTEAD ON SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED AREAS GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS.

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST/OH-TN VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVELY-ADIED PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND AND FORM WITHIN THE BROAD AND MOIST UPPER TROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN N-S ORIENTED VORT LOBE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN LAKES-MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z WED.
THE CONVECTION TO BECOME LOCALLY WIDESPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THESE
SHORTWAVES... PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WITH THE
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUES TO
SHOW LARGER THAN NORMAL SPREAD FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS THESE
AREAS. AS WAS NOTED IN THE LAST DISCUSSION...THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE CHARACTERISTICALLY MOIST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...PERIODICALLY
CONVECTIVELY-UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE
BREEZES AND OTHER ZONES OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THE QPF (EXACT AMOUNTS/LOCATION/TIMING)
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST (PA/NY)...WHICH WILL BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING.

...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S.-BC/ALBERTA BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH OVER THE LATTER
HALF OF HTE FORECAST PERIOD (00-12Z WED) WILL ALLOW A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TURN OF THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL (300/250
MB) DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION OF A NOCTURNAL MCS...WITH
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL INFLOW.


...GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PERIODICALLY IN
VICINITY OF THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AS WELL AS SEA BREEZES ACROSS
FLORIDA AND TEXAS.  THE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH PW VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS
12Z/00Z ECMWF/12Z NAM CONUS NEST TO DERIVE THE AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE WETTER 00Z ECMWF PREFERRED ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS
VERSUS THE DRIER NAM/GFS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM CONUS NEST
AND GEM REGIONAL.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HURLEY

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 542200 543186 543177 543170 541159 540151 540144 541140
      544130 544124 543120 541111 539102 536093 529071 525062
      523054 524052 522049 519046 517043 514032 512028 511024
      513023 517022 519020 521017 520012 519008 517006 510001
      506997 502990 497982 494974 490967 483962 450964 447964
      443962 438955 431940 423928 414916 409911 402906 399904
      397904 397901 399898 403899 408898 411897 418894 421892
      423888 423884 422881 419878 421874 425872 429871 433876
      439881 465879 470874 474869 481863 484862 485857 490850
      493841 498820 501809 502803 503797 509779 511773 511768
      513765 515754 514744 512738 511731 512726 511718 512707
      510695 509691 506690 502687 498687 490686 485683 477680
      468680 466680 463682 460684 458688 455694 453701 450710
      441713 428712 428710 424710 420709 415710 396712 388716
      384715 382711 379708 376708 372710 367712 361717 357719
      354721 351722 348725 340726 325734 320738 315744 310752
      304759 299763 294765 289765 286764 282764 275766 268772
      262778 263782 266783 270781 272779 273781 276784 279791
      282799 283801 282804 274802 270802 266802 258803 256805
      255809 258813 260815 271814 280814 282815 282819 283823
      285830 287834 289844 290856 291864 295873 297881 297890
      296898 296910 296916 295920 295931 293938 291943 289946
      285945 283941 285932 287931 286908 280904 277904 277906
      275910 275917 273919 272921 273924 274927 272929 272932
      275943 272947 269949 264952 260954 256954 252953 250949
      250941 248937 246936 241935 230939 227039 232047 239052
      244050 247048 248034 254033 259031 260026 260022 263021
      269023 274026 278026 283025 288024 292021 298013 300009
      300004 302002 301998
 0.01 301998 301986 301976 305960 316958 328954 335950 341948
      344949 344953 343956 344959 344963 346965 351965 354963
      356961 356956 354951 350949 346948 348943 347925 344910
      349905 349898 349893 352891 359890 365892 369893 370897
      372900 373904 368908 363913 361916 361921 362927 364930
      369936 374939 371940 367940 363936 361932 356927 352925
      350928 350930 352938 355945 359949 363952 368954 372954
      380955 384956 386959 398965 403970 407975 414984 420993
      422999 422005 421015 425018 430021 436025 435030 433033
      428032 426030 421029 421032 419036 418042 410044 406047
      402051 399053 397057 393052 390047 385048 379049 378053
      381060 384063 387063 393059 395057 397058 400062 395078
      395082 397086 400088 403087 406082 406077 404074 403071
      408073 417081 420089 420095 419104 421110 427115 434118
      446121 451120 453117 455115 456109 455101 453094 449083
      452078 452073 450070 447064 444057 445052 448051 451049
      454049 463051 469056 479063 485068 490075 491076 493081
      495087 498094 502099 505104 509109 514113 519113 526124
      527127 530130 531133 528134 521135 517135 513132 510130
      506124 504122 500121 496123 494130 497136 493137 490135
      488132 479128 475130 472133 472136 474139 480143 483149
      485156 485161 486164 495176 504187 506188 506194 504202
      504217 503228 502234 500232 497223 494222 494226 496234
      498239 502245 503254 505261 508265 515268 521269
 0.01 436659 435649 426651 409656 398665 392670 388672 386675
      383682 380690 379698 381704 392695 405685 414673 420669
      427669 431668 434665 436659
 0.01 453828 453823 452818 451814 447815 446817 443820 441821
      440825 440830 442832 445833 448832 452831 453828
 0.01 439137 440134 440132 440129 439127 437126 435126 435128
      435131 434133 434136 436138 437139 438139 439137 439137
 0.01 431168 430162 428158 425155 424150 420139 418135 415134
      413130 410127 405126 405130 403137 400138 398137 392136
      388138 383138 383141 385147 385152 384154 382156 377155
      373158 373161 378162 381160 384170 385175 389178 396175
      399171 400166 402160 407159 415165 418170 417175 419180
      422178 427170 431168
 0.01 414106 413103 413099 411094 405092 401095 396094 392094
      390096 392101 391104 389109 378112 373123 373127 374129
      380131 388123 392119 394114 400111 405111 412108 414106
 0.01 388199 389192 386186 381183 376179 369177 365177 363179
      360183 362189 365193 372196 377199 384201 388199
 0.01 376751 373747 370743 365746 365748 362751 360754 359759
      358762 359764 363762 368759 371756 373754 376751
 0.01 368158 368156 368153 369151 367151 365150 363150 361152
      359152 357153 356153 357156 359156 360159 362159 364159
      366160 368158 368158
 0.01 375069 375066 375064 375062 373059 372059 370057 368057
      367059 366061 364063 364065 366068 367068 369069 371070
      373071 375069
 0.01 362132 363128 361125 360120 355112 348103 346092 344087
      340083 336082 332079 330082 330088 328093 324095 312090
      306084 300076 300072 304068 308064 313063 317061 322061
      327060 334060 336058 332055 328054 327053 325047 326036
      325031 321029 319032 318039 318048 315053 311055 307055
      301056 297056 295058 290066 284064 278062 270058 265058
      262062 257071 257080 258085 260089 263092 273097 277099
      280103 282109 284113 290119 294122 299125 306132 312140
      318141 322139 331134 340131 344132 347134 353135 362132
 0.01 339117 338116 337115 336113 336112 335111 333111 331110
      330112 329114 329116 329118 330120 331120 332122 334123
      335123 337121 338119 339117
 0.01 325163 326159 324156 322155 319153 317153 314152 310151
      308153 307155 309158 311159 313161 316163 318164 321165
      323165 325163
 0.25 538191 539183 539179 538167 535157 533152 530150 515144
      511146 510150 511156 512160 516168 518178 519202 516212
      515221 516233 520240 525241 527239 529234 530229 531220
      534207 538191
 0.25 498788 493784 491782 491779 492775 492771 490768 485764
      484761 481759 476761 474764 471772 470776 467778 462779
      458777 454772 454769 455766 458759 461752 467747 477737
      482731 486728 487725 490719 487712 483710 480711 476713
      473713 468708 464709 461712 455718 452724 449731 445737
      438739 430739 422740 418741 410746 402748 392756 390762
      390768 392772 398775 402779 408784 410790 410795 413799
      418802 439783 444781 449781 451785 452790 453798 457804
      461810 464821 465825 468826 475827 476831 474835 470841
      465845 457847 449846 442846 439846 436847 429852 425854
      423857 427862 440864 448865 456864 461861 463863 467863
      475859 480855 486841 496807 496796 498788
 0.25 500057 501049 499045 495038 492035 491029 491022 490018
      486010 485006 484000 478996 473995 471991 460979 457976
      456979 457982 460989 464997 465006 468013 469016 469020
      466023 465028 466032 472039 488043 498056 500057
 0.25 487997 487995 487994 485993 484995 484997 485998 487997
      487997
 0.25 485987 486985 485984 485982 484980 484979 482978 481979
      480982 481984 482986 482987 484989 485988 485987
 0.25 437980 437976 437973 435967 431957 427948 423940 417932
      410924 404919 400915 396914 386911 375911 370914 368918
      368923 370927 378932 385938 392943 400948 407954 413961
      418969 424975 431980 437980
 0.25 412859 410851 407846 404833 403829 403824 401817 400812
      402806 403798 399795 389797 384800 381806 379812 376817
      372822 369823 368821 365817 360816 355818 352822 349826
      344831 338834 335837 329846 325848 321845 320838 318832
      317827 314828 311832 307835 302836 298837 298840 298853
      300862 302868 305880 306891 308897 311903 312906 312910
      315916 318919 322917 328927 332932 337934 342933 343928
      339916 336903 335894 336887 343877 348869 359863 362859
      367857 374859 378862 382873 384878 386880 390880 397878
      400874 405871 408868 412859
 0.25 364785 364781 363778 359778 356781 354784 351788 350792
      350796 353799 358801 361796 362792 363787 364785
 0.25 326773 323764 320764 318766 314772 310778 305784 306791
      308795 310797 318798 320797 323793 324786 326777 326773
 0.25 319125 319123 319122 319121 318119 316118 314119 313120
      312122 313124 313125 314127 315127 317128 318127 319127
      319125
 0.25 308111 308105 305100 298093 291086 283081 272077 268076
      264078 266082 270085 278091 285098 292105 299112 304112
      308111
 0.25 229023 238022 248025 252023 253017 253008 258001 258996
      257992 254987 255984 258984 267986 270993 272999 272005
      273010 275014 282014 284012 286007 287001 287993 285988
      282985 275980 271977 266978 261972 256965 244965 232958
 0.50 531178 532173 532170 531165 529162 526162 523162 523164
      523168 524171 525175 526177 529180 531178
 0.50 485720 485717 484716 483715 482715 481716 480716 479717
      478719 478720 477722 477724 478725 480725 482725 483724
      484723 485722 485720
 0.50 483784 480777 476777 472783 469787 466792 465799 465807
      469813 471814 474813 477808 479802 481794 482786 483784
 0.50 471723 467719 465720 458727 453730 451734 449738 446742
      442745 438745 434743 430745 425747 419748 410752 401756
      396759 395764 394769 398769 407772 415774 423770 428777
      432778 435777 440774 443771 448762 453754 455749 458744
      465738 468734 470729 471723
 0.50 429968 427959 424951 419946 416939 412933 407927 402922
      396918 389916 382915 373916 371919 371923 376927 382929
      395938 405947 410950 414956 418963 423968 427970 429968
 0.50 401862 401860 401857 400857 399858 399860 399862 401862
      401862
 0.50 354844 355839 352838 349840 346841 343842 341843 339845
      338849 338852 339854 342855 345854 349855 351853 352849
      353846 354844
 0.50 352857 351855 349856 349857 349858 351858 352857
 0.50 336871 335867 332863 328862 324864 321867 318870 317875
      316878 318881 323880 327881 330880 334877 336872 336871
 0.50 336926 337923 337921 336919 335917 334915 333913 332913
      330915 330917 331919 331921 332922 332924 334925 335926
      336926
 0.50 313850 313847 312846 312847 312850 313851 313850
 0.50 230997 232003 236007 238009 241008 244004 249000 249996
      247992 245986 244980 244975 240973 235976 232981 230985
 0.50 248020 247018 247016 247015 246014 245012 244014 244016
      244018 245019 245020 247021 248020
 1.00 475800 476797 475795 475794 473794 472796 472798 473800
      475800 475800
 1.00 439760 439758 437757 435756 434757 433759 433761 432762
      432764 432766 433767 435768 436767 438765 439762 439761
      439760
 1.00 413760 411759 409759 407759 406760 404761 403762 403764
      404765 406765 408765 410765 411764 413763 413762 413760
 1.00 243998 243996 243994 242993 241992 240990 240989 239989
      237988 235989 234989 233991 234993 234995 235997 236999
      238999 238000 240000 241000 242999 243998
 1.50 239995 239993 238993 237993 238995 238996 239995

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.