Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 130655
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 13/1200 UTC THRU APR 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...UPPER NRN TIER OF NY STATE INTO PORTION OF NEW ENG...

ISENTROPIC LIFTING PROCESSES INVOF OF A SLOWLY RETREATING WRM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA THRU THIS EVNG WHEN SHRTWV
ENERGY OVRRUNS THE AREA IN FAST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT.  MODEL QPF
PLACEMENT SIMILAR BUT SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING TOTALS ARE
EVIDENT.  STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD.

...CNTRL PORTION OF THE NATION...

MODEL QPFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING THE ROBUST QPF EXPECTED FM
VICINITY OF THE LWR MO RIV VLY NEWD INTO THE CNTRL LAKES REGION AS
STG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATED IN THE STG BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT
LYING ACROSS THE AREA.   STG DYNAMIC FORCING ASOCTD WITH THE
EJECTION OF SRN STREAM SHRTWV..IN RESPONSE TO THE NRN STEAM SYSTEM
DIGGING INTO THE WRN U.S...IS EXPECTED AS COMBO OF HGT FALLS AND
FVBL JET DYNAMICS ASOCTD WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OCCURS.
MSTR AVBLTY SHOULD BE NO ISSUE HERE.. WITH MSTR FLUX INTO THE
FRONTAL BAND BEING AIDED BY WEAK SFC LO DVLPMNT ALONG THE FEATURE.


MEANWHILE...EXPECT THAT CNVCTV RAINS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INVOF
THE MID MS VLY BY THIS EVNG AS HGT FALLS/CDFNT BEGIN TO WORK EWD
ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE BROADLY DIV FLOW ALOFT COMES INTO PLAY.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST..CNVCTN SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND SHOULD WORK EWD OVRNGT INTO THE LWR MS
VLY.  MSTR AVBLTY ALONG THIS FEATURE OVR THE SRN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE LWR MS VLY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHWRS WITH THE CDFNT BUT THERE IS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT
THAT COULD INHIBIT TOTALS..THE DISCUSSION OF WHICH FOLLOWS.

THE UKMET/GEM REGIONAL AND THE 12/12Z ECMWF ALL AGREE WITH
GENERATING CNVCTV RAINS INVOF THE LWR MS VLY/ARKLATEX AREA LATER
THIS AFTN AND EVNG AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF CNVCTN ASOCTD WITH THE
EJECTION OF THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV TAKES PLACE.  THE DIV FLOW ALOFT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VRY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THIS AREA AND THE
CONCERN BECOMES HOW FAR EWD TO BRING THIS CNVCTV BAND INTO THE STG
SLY MSTR FETCH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AT THAT
TIME..AS WELL AS HOW AGGRESSIVE TO BE WITH PCPN TOTALS AS THE
SHRTWV LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING NRN STREAM
SYSTEM.  INITIAL IMPRESSION IS TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL AREA OF CNVCTN THAN THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GIVEN
THE STG DIV FLOW ALOFT AND LLVL MSTR FLUX OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
INVOLVED.  IF THIS AREA OF CNVCTN GROWS STRONG ENUF..IT COULD
INHIBIT THE MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT.  MODEL QPFS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE IN THIS REGARD AND HENCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI WITH
SPECIFICS ACROSS THIS AREA OF THE NATION.

...INVOF THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HI PLAINS...

UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS REGION COUPLED WITH STG DYNAMIC COOLING
ASOCTD WITH THE DIGGING NRN STREAM TROF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD LGT TO LCLY MDT PCPN TOTALS ACROSS THIS AREA.
MODEL QPFS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR HERE..

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 479617 483625 488639 494659 495665 497670 499680 501690
      502697 502702 503715 503723 503728 503741 503750 502778
      501790 499801 498814 495825 489842 476872 471880 466887
      462895 457903 449916 445924 442935 439961 437971 434979
      434986 433997 431007 429011 429017 433023 438030 444035
      447043 448048 448056 451066 453075 454081 453085 454091
      457096 458099 458103 456105 451107 448110 443109 438113
      434120 431123 427124 420125 412125 405127 400130 397128
      398124 396123 392122 387124 382129 378132 380138 391140
      398146 410149 412150 410154 403157 399155 396153 390148
      384145 380143 377144 373142 372137 372132 372126 376107
      372100 369098 366098 365100 367104 365107 361108 357111
      354115 351116 347116 344112 343108 339109 336107 335104
      336098 340091 346087 350082 350077 353073 356071 352068
      343066 336061 334058 334054 335051 338049 341045 344041
      346032 350024 354011 356005 361997 364991 365988 364986
      359986 352984 347983 343984 335987 333988 328988 324986
      320989 317990 311991 295973 298964 297960 297952 299943
      296941 293943 288943 285941 284937 286928 289921 297907
      307892 315881 320880 322876 328870 333865 337862 344861
      351863 355865 360864 386850 392847 400843 407840 414836
      417833 419829 423820 430802 434794 439784 441777 440770
      438768 433763 430760 429755 428744 427738 425734 424728
      424722 429715 429709 431705 435697 436686 435674 435652
      436641 441630
 0.01 354100 352097 351097 349097 347099 347101 348103 350103
      352102 352101 354100
 0.01 353830 353826 349828 346831 342834 340836 337839 334841
      332844 336846 341845 345842 346840 350835 351833 353830
 0.01 294805 291801 285800 282796 278792 276790 273791 265792
      260793 254795 249798 244802 241806 241813 246816 251813
      255810 258809 260811 262815 268817 275816 280813 284809
      286807 289806 294805
 0.25 480681 479668 477655 475646 472638 469633 465630 461632
      458637 455643 454650 452667 450686 444700 442708 442712
      443716 444721 443725 444729 443746 447751 448755 449760
      447778 444793 439808 437813 433821 418844 411853 401860
      378870 372875 367878 361881 357883 352883 345881 341881
      335881 330884 325887 317896 310903 301913 295923 294927
      295932 296934 300934 307932 310935 310937 308945 307956
      305962 305968 317971 330970 333975 337975 341974 349972
      354969 357969 358972 359976 362978 377980 383982 390979
      395976 397974 401974 402976 402981 401989 399995 394998
      387001 383004 377017 376024 372029 366033 362041 358045
      355047 353051 355059 358063 364065 369069 373073 375079
      379083 383085 385088 393094 396094 398092 401085 403082
      406080 414078 420074 424067 426067 427062 426054 420043
      416031 414024 414013 419001 421993 422982 426966 429957
      430946 432939 434931 439919 444906 456882 462868 468853
      474837 478823 481810 483794 484783 483773 481765 480753
      480735 481726 480713 479695 480681
 0.25 427106 423104 420105 416109 412109 409107 405109 402111
      401114 406115 412117 417116 419114 423111 426108 427106
 0.50 474677 474668 472657 468644 465644 462647 459657 457669
      456683 456689 454696 451700 450706 452721 453727 455731
      456743 455757 454771 452782 445807 440818 435827 424841
      420850 413858 407864 402868 395869 390870 383872 376878
      370884 363890 359892 353893 347893 344890 340888 335889
      331891 326896 319903 311909 306915 303919 301924 302927
      305927 311926 315926 317929 317938 313949 311955 311959
      312963 318964 324963 332959 334960 335962 336967 340969
      344968 351963 358956 362952 368951 371951 372953 370961
      368965 367971 369974 375975 384973 392970 400965 403964
      407965 409969 409977 408984 410989 414987 416982 417974
      417969 417964 421954 428934 432923 438911 447890 456872
      459863 463850 467838 470827 473813 474799 475787 476781
      475772 474764 475756 475743 475729 474710 475694 474677
 0.50 411073 411068 410066 407060 404055 402049 401045 398046
      392047 387048 381045 377042 374040 371041 369046 365051
      375054 379058 382064 385068 388075 389082 395085 397085
      398083 402079 411073
 0.50 404023 404022 403021 402019 402018 400016 399016 397016
      395017 394018 393020 393023 394025 395027 396029 397030
      398031 400031 402030 403028 403026 404025 404023
 0.50 365054 363052 361053 361054 363054 365054
 1.00 465817 465806 463798 462793 458793 455798 453804 449815
      444826 439835 432844 425852 419862 414870 407878 404882
      399885 389888 385891 382896 382911 376920 373926 370930
      364936 369937 373935 384931 390929 393929 393930 393936
      391942 388947 385950 379959 375965 373967 375970 380970
      384968 393964 402958 407955 410952 415942 426922 432912
      436903 445880 454859 459846 462835 464826 465817
 1.00 352921 348918 342917 342912 341908 339908 333910 331915
      337923 330931 326935 324941 322947 321954 323955 326955
      331952 335947 339944 346935 349930 351923 352921
 1.00 341919 339918 338919 339921 341919 341919
 1.50 458820 457814 455817 451823 443836 435850 429857 425862
      417875 409890 404896 399902 397910 397915 398922 400926
      400929 398936 395945 390952 380963 381965 384965 391962
      402953 408947 412940 419926 427912 431905 434897 440880
      447865 451857 453850 456842 457835 458820
 1.50 342934 341932 338932 336934 334936 332938 330940 330943
      330946 332944 334943 336941 338939 340936 342934
 2.00 450845 449841 448840 444843 439851 426869 421878 419884
      418890 413900 408908 404912 403919 403929 400941 399949
      402949 406945 409941 414931 417921 423912 426907 429902
      432890 440870 444858 449848 450845

$$





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