Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
447 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 28/1200 UTC THRU JUL 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST PUSH OF THE
STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTO
SOUTHERN MB AND WESTERN ONTARIO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THE
AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN AND
MB---WITH AREAS OF NORTHEAST MT AND FAR NW ND ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP AREA.  FARTHER EASTWARD---THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING STEADILY EASTWARD OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES
REGION.  ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT LIKELY WILL WEAKEN AFTER 1200 UTC.  HOWEVER---ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY.  MODEL
CONSENSUS---ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED HI RES AND HI RES ENSEMBLE
MEANS---WAS FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MN/WI/IL/IA BORDER AREA---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TO EASTERN IA
AND NW MO.  WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS LOWERING FFG VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN MO---RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS.  LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE MAX
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WILL BE SLOWER MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY.  PW VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT.    CONVECTION LIKELY TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED HIGH AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
FROM IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST NM---THE TX/OK PANHANDLE---EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KS.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THIS AXIS---WITH THE USUAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO QPF DETAILS.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEAN TO MITIGATE THESE DIFFERENCES.

MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/UPPER TN
VALLEY

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.  SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY---WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  THERE HAS BEEN NUMEROUS AREAS OF SLOW MOVING
CELLS--LEADING TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.  LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD---WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE AREAL
AVERAGE TOTALS DEPICTED--WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OVER A LARGE REGION FROM THE UPPER TN
VALLEY---THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC.

FLORIDA

THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CENTER OFF THE NW FL PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DAY 1.  PW VALUES---HOWEVER---REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE IN A NARROW AXIS EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF THIS CENTER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
AGAIN LIKELY IN THIS HI PW AXIS---WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG THE
WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS---LOCALLY VERY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SW TO WEST CENTRAL FL.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED
AREAS.

NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND

A NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN QB INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PUSH A SLOW MOVING FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN MAINE DAY 1.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT---AFFECTING AREAS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 567952 567935 566931 566926 565918 565901 562881 561876
      558872 557867 554863 552859 549854 547849 542849 537850
      534848 525849 503851 497847 490843 483839 476839 472838
      468840 463841 459843 454845 449848 439854 432857 427859
      422859 416860 410859 400859 397861 396853 397848 397843
      397828 397821 397813 400806 403796 403785 402776 400768
      399761 398754 394752 383754 378755 372760 360772 356780
      350789 344794 337798 326809 323813 320816 315819 309818
      309812 307809 301804 291801 288799 282800 272797 266798
      264800 260801 258808 257814 256818 256827 254831 252835
      251840 252846 255853 259855 261855 271850 280850 287852
      289850 294849 298851 300855 304859 307861 316865 324870
      326873 325875 325880 323883 321886 319891 318896 317898
      322905 326908 331909 342908 346906 351905 356903 361904
      363909 366912 373916 380916 384914 389913 392913 393916
      392920 389931 385941 375962 356995 348009 344016 340023
      338027 336032 333036 328037 306038 297041 287043 275046
      269045 264043 257039 249034 243029 237035 233042 229049
      234057 238064 243071 252077 259081 264085 280096 284100
      286106 292114 298118 308122 315127 323133 325135 330136
      334136 338135 341132 341127 344115 346111 347103 346097
      344093 342085 341080 342076 343069 348068 353067 358067
      364066 370067 376066 380063 382058 382054 381049 382044
      383032 386019 389009 391999 392992 395989 400987 403986
      405985 412982 418979 435974 441973 445971 453967 461962
      463961 465962 470965 483976 490980 495981 495986 495993
      494001 489007 479023 474023 471026 467028 465033 463037
      463043 463055 461068 461082
 0.01 461082 462088 461096 463108 470115 473118 477117 485111
      493108 501104 508101 517097 522091 529082 534074 539066
      544057 550050 555042 558037 561035 562018 562999 564985
      565966 567952
 0.01 481675 478670 476666 473665 469665 461663 455657 450658
      445660 443669 439679 436682 431684 425691 421699 417701
      415705 413709 414715 415723 417726 426725 432724 437722
      443717 448714 450711 455704 459705 462701 465698 470696
      473693 475689 478681 481675
 0.25 559004 560993 560981 559968 558958 555944 552928 550923
      547919 540912 532904 527902 521901 511906 501916 500919
      501922 504926 496924 486922 479917 471908 465898 465894
      467892 472890 477890 480889 482888 481886 477883 473881
      460879 455879 452879 450877 449870 445870 438872 431872
      426872 419873 414877 411882 403894 402899 403907 403915
      402923 398934 394945 389956 386960 383965 378978 371992
      368997 364000 360011 354019 349028 347034 346039 348042
      353044 358044 366044 371041 376026 377020 376014 376009
      379002 384994 387990 389983 395974 402965 410956 418956
      423956 428955 432951 441944 445942 450940 456941 460943
      468950 479957 484957 490956 496957 501957 504963 506969
      510982 510987 507994 502006 500011 499019 497031 493036
      488038 482042 478047 472057 470064 470074 472086 474092
      479096 489095 499091 509086 519079 528072 534063 539054
      544044 550033 553027 555019 559004
 0.25 452681 450681 449682 449683 447684 447685 447688 448689
      450689 451686 452684 452681 452681
 0.25 391794 392787 389785 383782 378778 375776 372776 368778
      367782 365789 363797 359803 355811 352816 348823 346831
      346839 348842 352842 356836 360830 363823 368818 372812
      375810 378809 383807 386805 389799 391794
 0.25 315112 316108 315105 312100 311096 310090 309083 306079
      302076 299074 296069 291067 280064 271060 263055 252051
      243046 237047 236051 237054 242061 250068 257073 273084
      283089 293094 299101 305108 311114 314114 315112
 0.25 296817 296811 293808 289806 284807 282811 279814 275816
      270817 265819 263821 261826 262829 264833 268837 275840
      281842 288837 293830 294824 295820 296817
 0.50 556001 557993 557983 555971 553960 550952 546940 542932
      536927 530924 525924 521927 522939 518947 514955 514959
      515966 517976 518981 518988 515996 510005 508009 507014
      506027 505034 499042 492045 486050 481056 479059 477066
      477071 478077 482082 488088 491089 497088 503085 516077
      523072 528065 536051 541041 546034 550026 553017 555007
      556001
 0.50 464927 463920 460916 454908 447900 441893 426881 421879
      417881 411887 408891 406897 408910 408914 407918 405923
      402934 398946 395959 396962 398961 402958 409952 416951
      420948 428945 445934 452932 458932 462931 464927
 0.50 384793 383788 380786 376784 372785 371790 370795 368800
      369804 372804 378801 381800 384795 384793
 0.50 363816 362814 359816 356820 353824 351827 349832 350837
      354835 356830 357826 359821 361818 363816
 0.50 292085 292080 292077 285073 279069 273066 266062 259061
      256062 257065 262070 269075 274078 281081 288085 292085
 0.50 291828 290822 286818 281819 276819 268820 265824 265830
      269834 274836 280838 285837 289833 291828
 0.50 252059 252058 250056 248055 246055 244055 244056 244058
      246058 248059 250059 252059 252059
 1.00 551998 552985 551976 549968 547963 543956 538953 534953
      533957 533963 534969 533975 531983 526994 520009 518016
      519025 517033 513038 510043 506047 495054 487060 485063
      485070 487078 488081 490082 495081 507076 510074 515069
      519064 522059 526052 528045 530037 531034 534032 542025
      546019 549012 551998
 1.00 447918 445912 442909 438905 434903 429901 424901 419898
      415901 417907 415913 410922 408928 408936 407940 408943
      412941 421937 427936 431933 438926 445921 447918
 1.00 288831 288827 287824 283823 281823 278822 274822 271824
      270826 270830 272832 275833 277834 280835 284834 286833
      288831
 1.50 547995 548987 547981 544978 541981 539984 537989 535995
      534000 532008 535010 537009 540008 543005 545001 547995
 1.50 513058 512056 510054 503054 498057 494059 490063 488066
      489070 492075 499074 503073 507070 511064 513058
 1.50 435914 435909 433908 429909 427909 426912 424914 422917
      421921 421924 422926 424926 426926 429923 430921 432919
      434916 435914
 1.50 286831 286829 285828 285827 283826 281825 280825 278825
      276825 274826 274828 274829 275830 276831 277832 278832
      280833 282832 284832 286831 286831
 2.00 503065 503062 503061 501060 499061 498061 497061 497064
      498064 499065 501065 502065 503065

$$




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