Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 23/0000 UTC THRU JUN 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATES THROUGH THE
TN AND OH VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH/AHEAD OF TD
CINDY...

EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
TODAY AND FRIDAY AS CINDY CONTINUES TO LIFT INLAND PER THE LAST
FORECAST TRACK OFFERED BY NHC. THE OVERALL ASYMMETRIC PATTERN WILL
PERSIST WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL RAINS OCCURRING INVOF THE
MODERATE SIZE CIRCULATION AND EAST OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE
ANOMALOUS AND LINGERING LEAD DEEP MOISTURE PLUME...SURGING NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
NORTHWARD. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL BEGIN TO GET INTO THE ACTION IS
UP TRHOUGH TN/KY TO THE OH VALLEY STATES AND
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD
OF AN EMERGING FRONTAL ZONE AND INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT. THE GUIDANCE HAS THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN AND SCENARIO
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALONG WITH THE HEAVIER LOCATIONS FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. WPC GENERALLY USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND FOR
QPF...A MIXTURE HIGH ON WPC CONTINUITY ALONG WITH SOME UPDATED
INPUT FROM THE ECMWF AND 12 UTC HRW-ARW AND HRW-NNMB. THE BIG AREA
OF CONCERN IS OF COURSE ALSO NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK OF CINDY AND
GENERAL 2-4" AMOUNTS WITH MAX TOTALS OF 6" WITH TRAINING NEAR THE
LOW NEWD UP ACROSS TN/KY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL
APPALACHAINS WITH ADDED TERRAIN LIFT. ADDITIONAL MULTIPLE
LINGERING FEEDER BANDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CONSENSUS FOCUSED
ON THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF LA AND COASTAL AREAS/SOUTHERN MS/AL
AND EXTREME WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. I

FOR MORE ON CINDY...PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES NOW BEING ISSUED BY
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.


...UPPER TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM
PARTS OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES THEN OUT
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE NERN US FRI. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND VERY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING AND
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WITH PWS POOLING AOA 2 INCHES AS SRN LATITUDE
CONNECTION INCREASES OVER TIME. FAVORABLE RIGHT HAND ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS SHOULD FUEL THE ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT ALONG
THE WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MN/IA TO MI.
A COMBINATION HIGHLIGHTING WPC CONTINUITY AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM
THE ECMWF/ARW/NNMB FOR QPF SEEMS REASONABLE WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS
OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ERN IA/FAR NRN IL NEWD ACROSS SRN WI
AND LOWER MI WITH CELL TRAINING.

SCHICHTEL/MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 565051 559054 552056 546058 541057 538054 529053 520052
      509050 504050 500047 497046 494043 490039 489035 489029
      490018 493013 497010 498007 498003 498999 497995 497991
      499988 500985 500982 499977 491960 486954 482947 479943
      473942 470944 467942 462941 457938 455934 455930 454926
      446940 439956 433963 428968 419985 416992 416999 417003
      420013 422022 425035 426040 426047 425053 422056 414062
      407066 403067 398067 389064 379063 368062 364061 361059
      359056 356055 354051 358045 362040 365039 368037 367035
      364035 360035 357036 349040 341043 335043 333040 331038
      331034 332027 333025 331023 328021 321020 319016 320011
      326005 331000 335996 335991 336986 337980 337975 335969
      333962 330959 326961 320965 312967 299967 295966 292962
      290958 287955 281947 275929 274924 268923 266917 268909
      270901 273895 275891 278889 283883 287877 291870 292860
      290848 287844 283846 278846 273844 270841 270837 273834
      275832 274829 272826 270826 265825 247827 241816 251801
      264798 268799 276803 279804 280807 282810 281815 291815
      298817 304819 310818 322814 326812 329813 333804 336797
      341792 339782 337780 336774 329757 328746 331742 334739
      339734 343732 347734 350735 355733 358730 359727 364717
      367714 369714 370716 372718 372726 375730 378730 380728
      382724 385721 389718 394717 396722 397728 401734 403737
      407736 411732 419731 422723 432687 436678 440672 444675
      448676 450670 451662 453653 457645 461640 463637 468635
      476633 483636 488642 491645 495647 498650 503652 507654
      513653
 0.01 543749 542756 542764 543770 543777 536802 535807 534816
      534827 540856 542861 543870 543877 541880 541885 540887
      542890 545895 550895 551900 551907 548912 546918 547925
      547934 549938 552938 555940 558940 559936 561931 565927
      567930 567938 564971 565977 567980 568988
 0.01 550162 544146 537131 533126 531122 528121 529140 527145
      523143 517137 508128 503122 498114 492101 487095 481089
      478094 478100 479104 478107 475106 469100 462099 459100
      458103 456106 457110 457115 459120 468130 472136 476137
      479140 484145 487152 497165 503170 507176 512181 518187
      523192 529194 533195 537191 539189 541191 542195
 0.01 552876 552873 552870 552868 550867 549868 549871 549873
      551876 552876 552876
 0.01 552968 553966 552963 550960 549963 547966 545966 544963
      542965 543971 544976 545979 547980 548979 550975 552971
      552968
 0.01 544957 542955 542952 541950 539950 538952 536953 535955
      535957 535960 536962 538963 539965 541963 542960 544957
 0.01 483055 483052 483050 483047 482045 482044 480044 479044
      478044 477046 476049 475051 476054 476056 478057 480057
      481057 483055 483055
 0.01 383197 382195 380192 379190 376188 375186 372183 370182
      366181 365184 366187 367190 369192 371195 373196 376198
      378200 381199 383197
 0.01 307098 307091 307087 305085 299083 296077 296075 295071
      291069 286065 281063 270058 264058 262062 267072 276080
      284089 292096 294101 299104 305102 307098
 0.25 565030 565021 564016 563008 562002 558995 550993 540992
      536991 535997 540006 543014 546025 549031 552034 558034
      562032 565030
 0.25 529750 528742 526734 525727 523720 503709 497699 491690
      485682 480669 476666 473665 471668 465677 462683 458687
      451699 446704 444708 439717 435727 433734 430740 425749
      421752 415755 411758 405761 398759 393757 387756 383752
      380753 380760 380769 378774 374784 360800 352808 348814
      338831 330848 318856 311857 304858 301861 291887 286896
      284900 282906 283912 285916 290924 293929 295935 297939
      301943 312949 318951 327951 338947 346943 355938 359936
      362932 370923 377916 381911 386907 396901 399905 401911
      403917 408918 409924 408930 406937 405941 406945 409949
      413952 417952 422948 428938 437928 447905 451896 456884
      460873 464861 469847 473833 475819 478813 481809 487801
      493790 499782 504782 508785 512786 512780 516785 516792
      518798 522800 526791 527785 526778 529773 529764 529750
 0.25 524168 523160 519151 515145 510141 504136 496134 493137
      493142 496150 500156 507161 513165 519169 523170 524168
 0.25 519944 520936 518928 515921 511911 506903 504898 500898
      497900 495904 494916 494922 496926 501934 507941 514945
      518946 519944
 0.50 516158 516156 515155 514153 514152 512151 512149 511149
      509148 508147 507146 506145 505145 504145 504148 504149
      505151 506151 507153 508154 509155 510156 512157 513158
      515158 516158
 0.50 480756 480749 479740 476727 477720 476711 474702 472698
      470697 461702 454711 449717 444727 437746 432757 432766
      433775 433783 431788 427788 423787 415781 412779 407778
      399775 395774 390776 384784 376794 366811 363814 357815
      353815 351817 349821 347826 344837 343843 340847 337852
      332856 328859 324861 314863 304865 301870 300876 299880
      296885 292893 288904 292909 297912 300917 300925 301929
      304934 309940 316945 321947 327946 336941 344936 348932
      353928 367916 380904 387897 394890 400880 405869 419829
      420824 424820 426817 428816 429819 433833 434838 433842
      432847 429850 427855 426863 426870 425882 424890 422895
      419906 418911 419917 420921 422923 428922 433919 438914
      443906 448895 454877 457864 460853 462847 464839 465824
      466810 467803 468799 472786 476777 478772 479765 480756
 1.00 460802 459790 457776 455772 453771 451772 449782 448787
      448795 448807 444817 442827 440838 440844 439851 438861
      438871 438877 440883 442886 447884 451862 454851 456842
      457837 458829 456818 458815 459809 460802
 1.00 436904 437899 436895 434893 431895 429896 427898 426901
      424905 425909 427911 431911 434909 435907 436904
 1.00 409817 409810 409804 407798 404793 402790 398788 391790
      378804 377808 376813 376819 375823 368842 363849 358856
      355858 351857 348858 339859 342866 344869 346869 345876
      341882 338891 330897 325902 321909 315915 310925 310928
      311933 317938 326941 332939 335936 348926 361914 373903
      385891 390884 394876 398867 401856 405836 409817
 1.50 450853 450848 451843 449840 447842 446845 445848 444851
      443856 444860 444865 445865 447863 448860 449855 450853
 1.50 402813 401804 399799 396796 393795 390798 385803 383806
      383811 383818 382823 377838 374846 371854 367860 362866
      352877 345891 341897 335902 330907 324913 321917 318921
      317926 316931 318934 325938 332936 339930 350921 369900
      388876 391869 394860 398843 400837 401827 402813
 2.00 395821 394813 391812 389815 387822 387829 386836 382843
      376856 368867 362871 357876 354882 352890 348895 344900
      333909 328913 324919 322925 322930 324934 329934 335930
      346921 355912 364902 371891 374884 375881 379879 383875
      387868 392853 395837 395821
 3.00 364892 364889 364887 363885 362883 361882 361883 360885
      360887 360888 358890 358891 358892 357894 358896 360895
      362894 363892 364892
 3.00 348910 348908 344906 340908 339909 337910 335914 334917
      332919 334923 337922 339920 341917 342916 344914 346912
      348910

$$





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