Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FXUS04 KWBC 251815
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
115 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 26/0000 UTC THRU DEC 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

THE INITIAL GREAT BASIN H5 TROF MAKES ONLY SLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION THIS PERIOD..REACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WITHIN THIS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE TROF..S/WVS CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF
THE TROF INTO MAINLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TROF..DIGGING
THE BASE OF IT INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS/FORCING THRU MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE CENRTAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS..WITH ENHANCED TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN CO WHERE POST FRONTAL
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN LIFT.  FOR THE MOST PART..THE
LATEST MODEL QPFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
DISTRIBUTIONS THRUOUT THE ENTIRE REGION.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD
FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.


SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPARSE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NATION THIS PERIOD..WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS LIKELY IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE ROCKIES H5 TROF..SOME LIGHT RAINS FROM EASTERN TX/WESTERN
LA UP INTO OK TRIGGERED BY AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THESE AREAS..AND OVER SOUTHEASTERN
FL..WHERE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY
WITHIN THE HIGHER PW AXIS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 518077 519072 517067 513061 508057 501058 494059 491060
      489065 491071 493081 494084 496083 502079 505079 510080
      512083 515082 518077
 0.01 505148 505144 503140 498137 492134 487132 485129 479125
      476120 476109 475106 470105 467105 465108 465113 467121
      465122 463119 464126 468129 470138 478142 479147 473147
      467144 463143 459144 453145 452152 452156 452162 448170
      450177 448180 446181 443181 441184 441188 445191 449197
      452196 459180 457173 457168 459165 462164 466166 470170
      475165 480164 484164 487162 488156 488151 487146 489143
      493146 499148 505148
 0.01 479239 479236 479233 478231 476231 475230 473232 473234
      473237 474237 475239 477239 478239 479239
 0.01 469245 468242 463237 460233 457232 454233 450233 445234
      441236 435236 432238 430241 431243 429248 425251 423256
      427257 436253 445250 455249 463247 469245
 0.01 484806 483794 482786 479779 477775 473775 469784 468791
      468796 465809 463821 460832 457842 456848 457857 461863
      463869 464878 464886 463893 463898 467901 469897 471893
      473880 476870 479857 480849 480845 481839 482829 482824
      483819 483811 484806
 0.01 462223 457221 452217 447218 442218 436220 433219 431221
      430223 432225 435226 437228 441227 447227 451224 457222
      462223
 0.01 464703 463700 460699 458699 456701 454703 452704 450706
      450711 451716 453717 457716 458713 459711 462708 463705
      464703
 0.01 447204 448202 448201 446199 446198 445196 443195 441195
      440194 438194 439197 439198 440200 440202 442205 443206
      445206 447204 447204
 0.01 448012 455956 458933 459922 456908 450913 447929 443943
      434951 420958 406966 380985 373992 366000 363003 361010
      359017 359027 358034 356039 350048 347051 343051 331050
      316049 311051 307054 301062 296073 272075 266077 263080
      262084 265090 268095 282098 288099 289105 292109 296113
      300114 304118 308121 312121 319118 325112 329108 333103
      337101 340097 339085 343081 344074 345071 348070 350072
      350076 348082 349088 352097 357102 361105 366106 368102
      372100 375102 381103 385101 388099 391099 393102 391106
      383112 377120 376127 377134 381138 388145 392152 392159
      389168 390175 395175 400168 406157 405149 401147 404139
      407136 410136 412136 414139 416144 417149 420150 421148
      426134 429125 431121 434117 436117 436114 436106 435100
      438095 440089 441081 442075 443072 447065 445039 445025
      446018 448012
 0.01 443742 441740 439740 435740 433742 432745 432749 433752
      434756 434761 436764 438763 439760 440755 440752 441748
      442745 443742
 0.01 398936 398923 394922 391924 388928 380933 378935 373936
      364935 354936 350938 345938 342940 337939 335938 332936
      328932 326928 321922 315919 313918 308918 304918 298917
      290916 286918 286923 288929 290933 293936 294939 292942
      290947 288954 287959 285961 278966 274968 275970 280974
      286977 303981 319979 335973 338970 342969 348969 356968
      362967 366966 370965 373963 379959 384954 390947 395943
      398936
 0.01 295807 292802 286797 280795 271795 267794 257796 249798
      245803 241808 239812 239817 240822 243823 247819 249812
      251809 254812 258816 261817 264815 274806 286812 290812
      291810 295809 295807
 0.25 415055 416045 415040 412038 408037 401039 393043 386043
      380039 375040 370046 365055 364064 367072 371079 378087
      383086 384077 382072 376064 372060 369057 374053 379059
      384062 387066 387073 387077 390080 396082 397088 398090
      400089 400081 403069 403062 405060 408061 411062 412060
      415055
 0.25 393117 392116 390115 389115 388116 387117 386118 385120
      384120 383122 382124 384125 385125 386124 388123 390121
      392119 393117
 0.25 323098 322093 321089 321084 314081 310079 305080 297081
      294081 291083 289086 290089 296094 301097 308101 313106
      316109 319108 321099 323098
 0.50 402053 401051 399051 397053 399054 400054 402053 402053
 0.50 314090 314088 313087 312086 310085 308085 307085 306086
      304086 303087 302087 301087 299087 298088 299089 300090
      301091 302091 304092 306093 307093 309094 311093 313092
      314090

$$




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