Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 230650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
150 AM EST THU FEB 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 23/1200 UTC THRU FEB 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...FLORIDA...

A ROBUST UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
AND GO OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. SOME LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF THE
STATE WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY ADDITIONAL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
AND RESULTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH AND UNDER A 0.25 INCH.


...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/GREAT PLAINS...

AN ALREADY STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY ON THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY EJECT
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AMPLIFY
FURTHER. THIS WILL DRIVE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL
ZONE INVOLVING SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS...WITH LOW PRESSURE
THEN LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD FAR NORTHERN MO BY EARLY FRI AS
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTER EJECTS TOWARD THE MIDWEST. AS THE
ENERGY CROSSES THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...EXPECT HEAVY
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL...WITH MORE ORGANIZED
FRONTOGENETICALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL WITH THE AID OF LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEB. AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN STREAKING WELL
DOWNWIND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
AS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVERRUNNING A WELL-DEFINED
WEST/EAST ORIENTED POLAR FRONT GENERATES STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT.
GIVEN THE DEEPENING LAYER OF COLD AIR ...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPING AND OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST FROM ACROSS NEB/SOUTHERN SD EAST INTO SOUTHERN
MN/NORTHWEST IA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN WI BY THURS NIGHT.
DEEPER LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO TEND TO FAVOR SOME
MORE ROBUST WEST/EAST ORIENTED BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES
WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CLOSER TO
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE MUCH MORE
MARGINAL/SHALLOW...EXPECT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN...ALONG
WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AS INCREASING INSTABILITY POOLS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW
CENTER. SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. BY EARLY FRI...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WELL DOWNWIND INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. WPC FAVORED A CONSENSUS OF THE MORE CONSISTENT
GFS AND ECMWF...AND STRONGLY AWAY FROM THE NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS
WHICH ARE NOTABLY FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
QPFS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF LOWER MI WILL CROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY LATER THURS. THIS
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE AND ALSO DOWN ACROSS PARTS OF VT/NH AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
NEW YORK. OVERALL...LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER A 0.25 INCH ARE
EXPECTED.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 492612 503632 507643 512654 513663 514673 514680 515690
      516707 516713 515720 514731 511737 510743 507761 501779
      500784 500791 499798 499806 500816 502822 503838 502843
      500850 498855 494856 487851 482841 478837 474837 469834
      465831 462820 457813 454810 451811 454822 456832 456845
      457854 459858 462868 470890 467903 469908 469912 467917
      464916 462912 460911 457913 450938 448949 447965 446976
      447986 450007 451011 452019 454030 453045 455055 460063
      463068 468070 476075 480079 483078 484075 488064 489060
      492060 495059 499066 499074 497079 496086 495091 493103
      493111 493114 494117 497125 501134 509140 517146 520149
      521152 520155 519161 518165 516165 508167 503167 497164
      490158 485154 484148 482143 477140 474141 473144 475149
      480153 483157 483161 478165 474162 470163 466161 464161
      463164 460166 460170 462174 464179 460183 457187 453197
      449199 446204 441204 438208 440214 447215 451214 457215
      466214 471213 474209 489213 493219 496221 498225 501234
      505243 504248 502249 496239 493235 488231 483223 479223
      479228 482239 490242 497253 500257 503262 505266 505270
      506274 506279 504285 501289 498289 494290 491289 486287
      484285 471274 464267 461264 456262 458273 457279 454281
      436270 424266 420267 415265 405268 400268 395264 391262
      389258 382251 374248 372244 368242 364239 359237 358233
      361230 368229 377232 382234 388237 396242 405240 409239
      413236 417232 420235 422233 420231 420223 410223 406220
      400219 398216 394214 388208 385201 380195 364187 362183
      367184 375189 377191 381192 385195 388198 391193 389189
      386185 384181 385175 388168 391166 393161 392156 388153
      386146 381136 374130 375125 377118 380114 383113 391110
      394109 396107 395104 389098 387096 383097 381099 378099
      377093 374089 371082
 0.01 371082 367077 361074 358072 356069 355067 356063 358056
      359054 361053 365050 372050 378052 386053 392052 394051
      394048 392045 389034 389025 389015 388994 388980 386978
      383979 379976 378972 378968 378963 377961 377950 379943
      380940 379938 381930 384923 385916 385913 387911 389908
      388904 385897 385890 387872 390859 391851 390849 388852
      387854 383852 383848 384845 387838 389831 390827 390823
      388814 383811 378812 378806 379804 381802 383798 394791
      399787 400784 399780 396775 396768 401755 403739 405733
      406731 410730 418736 420738 423739 426739 428736 438727
      444716 451708 457695 459686 460677 460670 461664 462657
      465651 466644 466634 468621
 0.01 444179 444172 440166 436162 432157 431150 429147 427151
      425158 428163 431166 431169 433176 435178 438180 444179
 0.01 424224 423222 422222 420223 421226 423226 424224
 0.01 416146 416142 416135 416131 414130 410131 406133 401134
      400141 398145 397149 401152 404151 408149 413150 416146
 0.01 384692 384687 382685 376687 369691 367697 364712 361722
      359725 356726 351724 342725 334728 329729 329723 333713
      334709 334705 332702 329702 322704 314707 305713 300713
      292713 280721 267727 247737 241741 236745 233750 232757
      233765 231771 228782 228790 230796 231800 233802 238803
      245802 251799 258791 262798 266800 268802 273802 278806
      278811 282816 285819 288824 291826 294826 297826 300824
      306822 310816 323797 328786 332779 336775 345768 352760
      357754 360749 367737 379716 382703 384692
 0.25 501666 494635 492626 487621 484620 482624 481631 480649
      480658 478663 475670 473678 471693 469699 465706 463713
      464720 466728 468732 468737 467743 466752 466770 469774
      475774 480770 483763 485755 486748 486739 487730 491717
      492709 492702 491697 495685 496679 499674 501668 501666
 0.25 460118 463103 460098 457096 454090 454084 454076 452071
      449063 445057 442047 445038 445031 444026 442015 441008
      441000 440987 439974 440962 443940 446929 447916 446902
      446895 444887 443882 443875 444864 443852 441842 437831
      434821 431810 431801 432795 432790 431786 425779 422780
      420782 419788 420794 420802 420807 419812 416813 413813
      411814 408817 406822 405829 405839 407850 409859 408871
      404895 400920 398927 397934 398940 400949 401955 400961
      398973 397985 398997 399005 401010 404019 405030 409049
      407055 403057 402061 399066 396069 392068 389068 387070
      385075 390080 394083 399083 403082 406079 413078 414081
      412088 413095 414101 415106 414109 424114 423116 419114
      416111 411111 408109 405110 401113 400118 404121 408122
      415123 423118 430124 437124 440128 442132 445134 447135
      449134 452124 458122 460118
 0.25 322765 321756 318750 315746 316740 316733 312728 309724
      305720 300718 294718 287725 262734 257737 252741 245748
      242753 242758 243761 246765 250768 255771 259776 269779
      273783 276788 279793 283798 286802 290807 295808 301806
      310798 316789 318784 320776 322765
 0.50 490644 489641 489644 490646 490644
 0.50 490652 490649 490646 488646 488647 488650 487652 487655
      487657 486658 486661 486662 485663 486665 487664 488663
      488660 489659 489657 489654 490652
 0.50 482685 482684 481683 480682 479683 478684 478686 478689
      479689 480688 480687 482685 482685
 0.50 445072 445067 444065 441060 435048 433043 435036 437031
      437026 435009 435998 435989 434976 434967 435961 440929
      441920 441913 437902 435895 433888 433879 436872 437867
      437858 435845 430831 425827 421828 420834 420841 419856
      411883 406906 405915 405924 407941 407954 405968 405983
      405991 407997 409002 409009 410024 410032 413038 413047
      413055 416059 421062 422067 422074 421081 420086 421089
      432096 433094 433091 433084 436073 439071 442072 445072
 0.50 315770 314762 312756 310747 310739 310735 302730 300724
      296721 292723 289727 268734 257740 251746 247750 246754
      248756 259756 263759 266764 267769 270773 277780 282790
      288798 291801 295803 300802 304798 308790 313780 315770
 1.00 427087 427084 427082 427081 425081 425082 424084 425085
      425086 426087 427087
 1.00 432942 432933 431928 429926 424925 422931 420938 418945
      417952 419957 421961 423961 426956 429952 431945 432942
 1.00 426867 426864 426867 426867
 1.00 420881 420879 420877 421874 419873 419874 419877 418877
      417879 417882 416883 416884 416886 416888 418886 418884
      420882 420881
 1.00 310771 309765 307761 304753 302740 299740 296737 295733
      295729 292728 289730 271735 263740 257744 256748 259750
      263751 266753 278761 284779 287787 294790 297794 300794
      304787 307780 309772 310771
 1.50 293744 292738 290734 288734 281735 273737 268739 263743
      263745 266746 270748 274751 281752 285755 291757 293754
      293750 293744
 2.00 289742 287739 284737 281738 277738 272739 269741 268743
      269745 273746 277747 279746 283746 286745 289744 289742

$$





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