Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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752
FXUS04 KWBC 120857
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EST TUE DEC 12 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 12/1200 UTC THRU DEC 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AS WELL AS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW FCST TO MOVE NEWD ACRS WRN NY
STATE TUES MORNING..WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DVLPS ALONG THE TRIPLE
POINT ALONG INTERSECTION WITH COASTAL WARM FRONT.  JUST MINOR
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE INTENSITY OF PLACEMENT OF BOTH THE
PARENT CIRCULATION AND SUBSEQUENT TRIPLE POINT LOW...THE LATTER
WHICH WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN AND/OR RAIN ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE NE.
OTHERWISE WITH THE RAPID DEEPENING/PHASING OF THE ASSOCD UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN GT LAKES LATE TUES/TUES NIGHT ALONG WITH A GENL
INCREASE IN THE NEG TILT ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER TROF..WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF STG ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AS 85H WINDS ARE
FCST TO INCREASE TO OVER 50KTS OUT OF THE SE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
SPREAD IN MODEL QPFS ARE RATHER SMALL AS WELL OWING TO ONLY MINOR
MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES.  THE 00Z GFS DID TREND A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST ACRS ERN MAINE WITH ITS HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS OF .50 TO 1"+ AND
THIS TREND WAS GIVEN A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT GIVEN SUPPORT BY THE 00Z
UKMET AND 00Z NAM. SOME OF THE HIER RES GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED TO CAPTURE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE TERRAIN OVER
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.   OTHERWISE...VERY STG COLD ADVECTION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT STG LAKE EFFECT BANDS
THAT WILL EXTEND SEWD INTO PARTS OF THE CNTL/SRN APLCNS. THE
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WILL TEND TO TAPER OFF OVER THE WRN LAKES TUES
NIGHT AS WEAK COL REGION MOVES OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
00Z HI RES GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED WITH CONTINUITY FOR THE HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS.  PLEASE SEE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON WINTER
WEATHER WITH INITIAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NE AS WELL AS CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION

DAYS 2/3...

WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A CONSENSUS VALUE FROM THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS...WITH SOME CONSIDERATION OF THE 00Z UKMET AND THE 00Z
NAM.

...EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...

ONE AREA OF ON-GOING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
MENTIONED IN THE DAY 1 SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL GRADUALLY BE
TAPERING OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.  MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE THE RESULT OF MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE MATURE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW COLD AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN LARGE DELTA T VALUES WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PRETTY GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

A SECOND CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKES AND APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE DAY 2
PERIOD BEFORE SCOOTING OFF SHORE ON DAY 3.  GIVEN ITS
TRACK...THERE SHOULD BE SOME BANDING OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ENHANCE
PCPN AMOUNTS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES ...REFER TO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK. ONCE THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED.  A QUICKER SOLN WAS NOTED HERE THAN IN THE DAYTIME
MODEL RUNS...AND THE QUICKER SOLN WAS FOLLOWED CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SIGNAL IN THE MODELS.

SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 492612 509642 513654 515664 517670 518677 520682 520687
      521698 522708 522715 522724 521731 519735 517740 514744
      510752 505756 497763 493764 489767 483774 476779 473786
      470793 472799 472806 473818 462832 459835 457837 455838
      452838 449836 446833 440829 430826 427824 425820 423815
      421816 419822 415826 411826 409824 408817 405816 397821
      399829 403832 416842 422848 426849 431849 442848 450848
      452849 456849 461848 469853 475860 479866 481872 480878
      479885 476890 473894 473897 478899 482899 488903 492906
      495909 498913 504916 510921 518926 534933 541934 544936
      547941 550952 552966 552974 548977 544982 542987 536992
      527992 524991 521989 517984 510978 505972 499965 495959
      492955 488953 484952 481949 477950 479957 482968 490988
      492993 495998 501008 505015 508019 509024 509029 511034
      511039 512043 512051 508050 502043 494029 490018 485010
      481009 478007 471002 465996 458989 451981 448976 447971
      445966 445960 449953 452952 454948 457945 455940 445925
      443921 442915 441912 441906 441899 444894 451891 457890
      459887 459881 456877 451875 441873 437872 432872 422873
      415870 409865 404858 395849 391845 388843 384841 379841
      374842 371840 369837 364836 356841 353842 353839 353834
      356825 361818 366812 373805 389790 392788 397787 404783
      408781 410778 412775 412770 411766 409764 405762 398759
      393761 393759 394755 396753 401745 403740 404734 403721
      401715 399711 394708 391712 385719 378727 374731 370730
      363735 356741 352745 347746 344746 332735 337718 361686
      371670 381657 388650 396647 400643
 0.01 461255 460252 458250 455251 452251 450252 447253 445255
      443257 442259 442263 445262 447262 449261 452260 455259
      457258 459257 461255
 0.01 258817 255812 251808 247805 247800 244796 240799 238805
      239809 242810 243808 246809 249813 253816 258817
 0.25 474619 482626 490636 498651 500657 503665 504682 504691
      503700 499716 497725 494731 489736 485739 480742 473744
      467749 462753 457758 451762 446766 444770 441776 439782
      436790 432792 428797 424803 417811 415811 414808 413797
      415788 417784 419782 425778 427776 427772 426754 427748
      427745 423745 421749 418747 416742 417736 418728 421721
      424716 425711 422694 418687 413684 408684 404686 396689
      391691 389693 389696 383708 378714 373718 364727 359730
      357730 355726 355717 356710 359703 363697 370686 384667
      394655 400652 406651 411650 417648 421637
 0.25 467873 467871 466868 466867 464866 463868 462871 464873
      466874 467873
 0.25 449862 448862 447860 446859 445858 444858 443858 441858
      439857 438858 436859 435861 436863 437863 438864 440865
      442865 443865 445865 447864 448864 449862
 0.25 441822 441820 439818 439817 437816 437813 437812 436811
      435809 435808 433808 432809 433811 433813 434814 433815
      433816 434817 435817 436818 437820 438820 439823 441822
      441822
 0.25 429862 427860 426858 425857 424857 422856 420856 419856
      418855 417855 416856 416858 417860 419862 419863 421863
      422864 424864 426864 428863 429862
 0.25 393796 391795 390796 388797 386798 385799 384800 383801
      382802 381803 380805 380806 379807 380808 382809 383808
      385807 385806 387804 388802 389801 390800 391799 392798
      393796
 0.50 462623 463625 466626 472627 477629 482634 483639 484643
      482651 481655 482660 484669 483677 485680 488678 490677
      493678 494683 494689 492695 490701 487719 483725 479729
      471733 466737 457744 451743 449738 449734 448730 445731
      437733 433734 429734 426733 424729 427724 426719 431712
      432704 428700 428696 429692 431685 434678 435673 434669
      430664 426657 428649 431634
 0.50 442752 441749 439747 438744 439741 441738 439736 433735
      431742 432752 432761 431769 432776 433776 434773 436768
      439762 441755 442752
 0.50 425791 425789 424788 422788 421789 420789 419792 418795
      418796 418797 417799 417802 417804 419805 420804 420803
      421801 422801 423799 423797 424796 425794 425793 425791
 0.50 425860 424859 422860 421858 420858 422860 424860 425860
 0.50 399667 397663 394663 391664 385672 379679 372688 367698
      365709 366714 370714 374710 375704 380695 387687 393680
      399670 399667
 1.00 482700 480700 477699 475699 472700 470701 469704 468709
      468712 469716 471717 474716 475714 478711 480709 481706
      482703 482700
 1.00 475657 474655 474654 472654 472655 472658 473660 475657
      475657
 1.00 459689 458686 454685 452683 453679 453674 451669 450669
      447675 445681 444688 443696 445700 445697 447697 453696
      457691 459689
 1.00 444710 444709 442709 441711 440711 439714 441715 442713
      443713 444712 444710
 1.00 438717 438716 436717 434717 436718 438717 438717

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 474619 485625 494633 497636 501642 507653 509660 511670
      512681 514691 514699 515708 515716 515722 514725 512733
      509742 508750 504755 497763 494767 492769 488770 483771
      478770 472766 467764 465763 461763 455764 450761 445765
      441771 439782 433791 430796 429804 431811 436815 441817
      444819 444822 438832 443843 450855 453860 459864 462870
      467873 483888 500906 504911 508914 512918 513920 517921
      519923 522923 526931 530936 532942 534948 535956 534963
      531970 527975 522978 510978 507978 505975 500978 494977
      491971 479962 475959 472954 465945 460942 454945 449949
      443947 435940 431935 429931 427924 424916 427914 432907
      428903 421902 417900 413897 409892 408889 407885 406882
      405878 401871 393868 392863 391858 388852 386846 385836
      380832 373829 366829 363827 363824 364818 367815 370814
      372812 375806 386784 387781 387777 385771 377760 373754
      371743 371739 368737 363734 357732 354730 349728 345733
      342738 337736 328730 326728 325725 327719 331706 332704
      336701 341697 345697 348694 354692 365685 377682 382679
      387673 393664 398660 400655 406649 411647 423636
 0.01 508045 507034 506026 503019 500014 496010 493009 492006
      493004 498006 501007 504006 504999 502995 498991 493988
      489984 484981 479976 471967 466962 461959 447958 443961
      441967 437961 432957 421949 414940 412937 410938 410948
      412964 426987 430993 434998 437999 437004 434011 432019
      432021 436021 441021 444019 447022 451023 453026 455032
      458039 455041 452041 446036 441033 441041 443048 447051
      452056 453062 453066 452071 456072 459070 463066 464062
      464051 465048 468046 470044 472047 471050 470055 471058
      474065 478072 480075 483076 487072 488070 489065 491067
      495067 499063 502058 504055 502052 492057 488061 485057
      481053 480051 480047 481042 483039 490038 494038 497037
      501040 505045 508045
 0.01 455100 455098 453096 452095 452094 450093 448094 448095
      449097 450098 450100 451101 453101 455101 455100
 0.01 439704 435696 430697 428695 422692 419695 415696 412704
      410711 408719 404727 401735 405743 410749 413750 417750
      422748 423745 425743 429744 433742 435740 435736 433734
      428734 425733 423731 425729 430728 434726 433720 436717
      437712 439704
 0.01 424063 421055 418052 413051 409049 404049 401049 397048
      394043 394046 390050 389054 386061 389064 392068 400067
      405068 408071 412073 417074 419071 422068 424063
 0.01 369797 369793 369788 367785 365784 362784 359785 357788
      358792 358796 360799 361801 363804 365805 368804 368800
      369797
 0.25 501705 500692 497681 493673 488668 481663 475661 461658
      461664 462667 465675 465682 465687 462696 458704 457708
      457714 459720 461723 467728 474730 482730 489729 495723
      499716 501707 501705
 0.25 444749 444744 442742 437745 434750 431754 429762 429769
      429774 431776 434776 435773 438768 441763 443757 444749
 0.25 445875 443868 440865 432855 427844 424838 422832 420823
      418816 418811 420805 423799 423793 411798 412805 409801
      407794 408792 407789 404786 401787 396791 393794 388799
      396800 399805 403818 404828 406834 408840 411847 415859
      417868 421872 436887 439889 442889 444885 445875
 0.25 403692 399691 395692 385697 373700 365706 362707 361713
      361719 363724 371727 376729 380726 388720 392716 394713
      400704 401697 403692
 0.50 491690 490684 488680 485679 481682 477689 473695 468700
      464707 464711 466715 471719 475720 479718 485712 488706
      491698 491690
 0.50 440760 440757 439755 438754 437753 436753 435755 434756
      433757 433759 432761 432763 432764 432766 433768 435768
      436766 437765 438764 439762 440760
 0.50 433873 433871 431869 429867 428864 426862 426861 425860
      424858 424856 423858 423860 424862 424864 425865 426867
      427869 428871 430873 430874 432875 433873

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 516270 518264 518259 515252 514242 511235 508227 504221
      501219 498218 492219 482227 473237 471240 468241 462243
      450244 444247 439251 434257 432260 432266 434268 439269
      445268 450264 456262 462263 457268 449279 446287 444297
      450303 456302 467297 472294 477289 482286 488284 491283
      494284 500280 510278 514274 516270
 0.01 533050 533044 532040 529032 521020 517013 512007 509001
      505993 496984 486974 481969 475966 466956 462956 459954
      456956 452956 446957 443961 440961 433960 427958 421944
      419936 422933 424935 430938 437942 444942 445939 445933
      441929 436923 425917 426913 425910 420906 415902 410896
      408892 406891 403888 401887 390897 381905 380909 380914
      383921 383928 383933 382940 407989 410989 415996 423007
      425011 427011 430016 430021 433021 435019 439014 444010
      449007 454008 456010 461015 469029 474032 478032 479029
      481022 484025 487026 493028 501031 506037 511042 521050
      528056 530056 531054 533050
 0.01 502708 501694 499680 497666 495663 491662 488666 486670
      484679 478697 471702 465707 460714 458717 457722 462726
      465728 468732 470736 471742 472748 474751 478752 481751
      487745 492739 496730 501713 502708
 0.01 504965 503957 499953 497952 494951 487952 481951 475952
      474954 474959 477963 482967 486970 492971 496971 501968
      504965
 0.01 465262 463260 462261 463263 465262 465262
 0.01 489932 489929 487927 487929 487932 489932 489932
 0.01 485879 484871 481862 478856 475849 477831 477827 475825
      471820 467815 465804 462798 459795 456793 453794 448797
      444802 445810 448817 451824 453829 452833 450839 446841
      442839 437835 427829 422829 422825 425822 439820 437815
      429816 426815 424811 425806 427804 437795 441791 443784
      445776 446767 444756 442752 436750 430754 428761 427768
      427778 425785 423787 421787 417790 414797 407799 404801
      404805 407809 413825 421832 417837 415844 407853 404859
      405864 407864 411864 414866 413872 414875 418882 422886
      426890 431889 435885 436879 440878 446880 451884 454889
      458895 461902 464907 466909 470908 474903 480890 483884
      485879
 0.01 458637 456634 453636 448642 442646 435652 431657 428661
      433670 437671 443664 445662 447658 451652 454646 458637
      458637
 0.01 473051 468045 462040 453036 448036 446036 443034 442031
      438031 436035 436042 438052 439057 442057 447056 452057
      454059 458057 461055 466054 470053 473051
 0.01 416691 415677 414670 411666 405661 401660 397660 392662
      389664 383670 370683 367691 365701 367714 368719 372720
      381716 384714 388715 391718 392725 394736 398740 402740
      407738 409735 413727 415717 413703 416693 416691
 0.01 402792 400789 396789 389793 382798 378806 371812 370822
      376819 379814 382811 387806 394801 400795 402792
 0.01 377938 377934 377929 377927 373927 371929 370932 369934
      369938 368941 368945 368948 372947 373945 375943 376940
      377938
 0.01 366816 364815 362816 360819 358821 357823 357828 356830
      357833 358831 360828 361825 363823 365821 366818 366816
 0.01 309769 309761 307757 304755 298757 294765 290776 286785
      282794 278798 274801 269808 264817 260827 256836 257843
      259848 262850 267849 272839 275830 280821 282816 286813
      290810 293806 304790 308781 309769
 0.01 268962 269957 268953 266950 263949 260956 258964 255971
      253978 252983 253988 255988 257985 261979 264972 267966
      268962
 0.01 247964 247960 247956 247952 245951 243952 241955 240958
      239959 238963 238967 239970 240974 243974 244972 245970
      246966 247964
 0.25 507261 507256 505253 502249 498247 493242 485241 482243
      480247 485249 487248 489251 487254 482260 470269 464273
      459280 457284 456290 457291 461291 468289 473285 477282
      480281 486278 493275 498271 504266 507261
 0.25 493248 491247 491248 493248 493248
 0.25 299779 299776 297777 295780 294782 292785 291789 291791
      290795 293795 295792 296790 297788 298785 299781 299779
 0.50 491268 490264 487262 484263 481265 480267 478269 477273
      476276 478277 480276 482275 484274 487272 489270 491268

$$





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