Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 160608
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 16/1200 UTC THRU SEP 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...N-CENTRAL US...

EJECTING WRN US TROUGH ENERGY/AMPLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUNCH ACROSS
THE N-CENTRAL US DAY1. LINGERING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP
FROM THE COOLED/SNOWY NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD ONLY
SUPPORT MODEST ADDITIONAL PCPN SATURDAY AS MAX SUPPORT LIFTS
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER
DOWNSTREAM...A MOISTURE AXIS POOLED IN EXCESS OF 1.5" WILL
MEANWHILE FEED NEWD AND INTERACT WITH A SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEM. FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD ACROSS
THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY STATES.

...SW AND WEST TX AND SE NM...

BROAD SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO PERSIST FROM NW
MEXICO NEWD INTO SW/WEST TX AND SERN NM.  ENHANCED LIFT/UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN THIS STREAM
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP. CONFIDENCE LOW WITH DETAILS GIVEN QPF SPREAD DETAILS.

...E-CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

A SEPARATE STREAM OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE NEWD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE E-CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH A PLUME OF HIGH PW AIR FUELING MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH QPF DETAILS...BUT EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

...COASTAL NC...

THE NHC 03 UTC ADVISORY TRACKS HURRICANE JOSE TO A POSITION NEAR
30.6N 72.2W BY THE END OF THIS DAY 1 PD VALID 12 UTC SEPT 17TH.
WHILE WELL OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS...ENHANCED/MOISTENED ONSHORE
FETCH WRAPPING FAR TO THE NW OF JOSE MAY SPREAD MODEST PCPN INTO
COASTAL NC THIS PERIOD.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 519273 508268 497264 487264 478265 470269 466272 463276
      461282 461288 463300 465306 467311 469317 473321 481327
      486330 490333 493335
 0.01 545971 545958 545943 545935 543928 540915 536901 533890
      529878 527865 524856 523849 522841 522808 521792 520784
      519780 516767 500699 499697 495687 490679 489678 484681
      481686 480692 481706 482720 487752 488767 489780 487808
      485819 483831 481845 480848 478849 475852 469859 463864
      455869 446874 438878 432883 418898 406909 391920 384924
      377931 364945 360954 359957 358963 355976 355978 349999
      347004 343008 333012 328017 320022 309033 300048 294051
      276058 268062 265064 260065 252060 246058 243055 234049
      229046 227046 225050 224059 227067 231072 237078 245084
      251088 254090 259091 266091 270094 281096 285095 289093
      290090 289086 287081 292080 297080 301078 317073 322064
      324060 327057 333053 338047 339042 339035 344025 346021
      349017 354011 360005 363001 367999 378990 382989 384994
      387000 387005 389010 389018 389031 387038 385040 381042
      378046 381051 389053 394053 397051 400046 401041 401037
      402033 402026 401021 394002 391996 394982 402972 403969
      409968 413966 417966 421964 426964 430961 433957 437957
      439959 440962 440972 439978 438983 436987 435995 434000
      437004 445005 450005 453002 456000 460996 462995 466991
      468990 473990 478992 481995 478005 462043 461045 459047
      456049 452055 450061 447065 443067 438067 434067 431063
      427056 423053 418052 414052 411056 409057 407061 405065
      405070 406075 410074 415074 419072 425072 430073 434076
      438076 443075 446079 447084 447088 443088 441091 438092
      435092 433090
 0.01 433090 429088 424089 427095 428098 427101 426105 424107
      419111 420114 427116 431120 435120 440118 442116 445118
      449118 451124 452127 454127 460126 466125 470123 476111
      482100 488088 493074 498059 502045 504027 524018 527015
      532011 535006 538000 541995 542988 545971
 0.01 420730 420722 418716 415719 412725 411737 408749 404759
      402763 397767 396768 395771 395775 397777 399777 402776
      404774 407771 410766 414756 417745 419733 420730
 0.01 392803 391794 391792 387790 384791 379796 371804 362811
      354819 352824 349829 348831 348835 348839 350840 355837
      358832 365822 368818 373815 384809 387809 389807 392803
 0.01 375710 374703 372696 367696 364697 362699 347714 344718
      339722 329728 318731 313734 309738 304747 303753 305759
      308763 312766 319775 322778 321785 322789 324789 329786
      338781 343777 346774 353765 360757 364753 366748 369736
      373724 374711 375710
 0.01 329883 329875 325869 324855 318845 315839 310835 307831
      301828 296826 291824 287827 290831 294847 294851 292853
      292858 291865 288872 283874 280874 277872 268865 263867
      261873 263878 267884 273893 280904 284908 288911 293914
      299916 302913 307909 314907 320905 327896 328888 329883
 0.25 513288 510286 507285 504284 500280 497276 492277 489278
      486280 484283 485287 486290 489294 493298 495301 499305
      502307 505308
 0.25 536960 537952 536943 533930 522906 521898 521890 519874
      517864 516853 515832 514815 513797 511778 508759 505743
      502729 498712 495702 492695 489691 486688 484692 484701
      486711 487721 489741 493817 494833 494840 492847 490853
      486859 479867 474877 472883 470890 468895 463900 453906
      443910 434914 430916 430913 438904 442900 446894 447891
      446889 441891 434897 425905 411918 408922 406928 405933
      403935 398938 382952 379957 376964 374970 375977 377978
      380978 384975 391968 410955 420949 429944 448933 457929
      466925 478923 490926 494928 497932 503941 504944 505950
      504962 501977 497990 493000 490005 488011 483024 480031
      478040 476046 476056 476063 477067 479068 484065 486060
      488052 488043 491030 496017 498008 500004 507997 512995
      518994 528989 531985 534976 536960
 0.25 379943 380940 377940 375943 370950 366959 364969 359978
      358982 359989 361989 364986 368978 369972 367967 369963
      371958 375951 379943
 0.25 356752 355748 350748 343751 337756 332759 325764 323766
      324770 329773 333774 337774 342770 347765 352759 356752
 0.25 315050 316048 315046 313047 312047 311048 310049 310051
      311052 312052 313052 314050 315050
 0.25 312867 312860 311855 309850 307847 303845 300847 298851
      297857 300861 303863 306867 310868 312867
 0.25 293060 290059 288060 285062 282063 281064 278065 275067
      273069 274073 276074 280074 282074 284072 286070 288066
      289064 291062 293060
 0.25 281889 281887 281885 281883 280882 279881 278880 277879
      276879 274878 272877 270877 269878 270880 270882 270883
      271884 272886 274888 274889 276890 278890 280891 281889
 0.50 515897 516887 515875 513866 513853 512833 512821 511812
      510802 508790 507782 504772 501766 497760 494766 494776
      497798 498819 497837 496847 495855 492863 487866 482869
      480873 481879 480891 478899 475906 472911 472915 475916
      482915 489913 494911 496911 499914 504918 505919 508916
      512907 515897
 0.50 503751 502744 501736 500731 498725 496722 495719 493720
      492726 492731 492738 493746 495751 497755 500758 502754
      503751
 0.50 465915 463912 457911 447914 437918 433921 429925 421930
      418933 412934 404939 396945 389952 382958 380963 378969
      380972 385970 391963 400957 416946 424940 431934 450925
      455925 459923 463920 465915
 0.50 364974 364973 362974 362976 361978 360978 360980 360982
      361980 362979 363978 364976 364975 364974
 0.50 351753 349753 346754 344756 342758 340760 338762 336765
      337769 339769 342767 343764 345763 347761 349758 350756
      351753
 0.50 308856 307856 307854 306852 305851 304850 303850 302849
      300851 300853 300855 301857 302859 304860 306860 308858
      308856
 0.50 277884 276881 274880 272879 272880 272882 272883 273884
      274886 274887 276886 276885 277884
 1.00 509882 508872 508859 508849 506846 505848 500853 497863
      496871 495877 497881 500888 502892 505895 508892 509887
      509882
 1.00 415940 412940 410940 407942 405943 403945 400947 398949
      398951 402951 403949 407947 409946 410945 413942 415940
 1.50 503878 503875 502874 502875 502878 503879 503878

$$





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