Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 262257
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
656 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 27/0000 UTC THRU MAR 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

EASTERN SEABOARD INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE EASTWARD PUSH OF THE
ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF---INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MS VALLEY---TO A POSITION FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/EASTERN GULF
COASTAL REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  ABOVE AVERAGE
PW VALUES WILL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BE PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON---SAVE FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE IT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL HELP FOCUS THE HEAVIER QPF
TOTALS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 1.  THE LEAD WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT ONE
PRECIP MAX ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED TROF OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A SECOND SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC--WITH A SECOND PRECIP MAX FROM
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
DELMARVA.  THE LAST PRECIP MAX EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH
FLORIDA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.  MOIST
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RAISE
PW VALUES TO 1.5-0-1.75" ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT---SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.


MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY

NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION
DAY 1.  LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY---ALONG AND ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS---SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF LIGHT
PRECIP TOTALS HERE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

NO CHANGES FOR MOST OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD FROM THE RECENT PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST CANADA THAT HAS SUPPORTED THE
BEST ONSHORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TARGETED INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
WESTERN B.C.  TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD--NORTHEAST
PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE APPROACHING THE PAC NW
COAST---FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE INLAND
MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS
WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON LATE DAY
1---CONTINUING INTO DAY 2 WHERE IT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S.


DAYS 2/3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY TEMPER THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE WEST AS IT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS-UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND.  THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO HAMPER ITS ASSOCIATED
AMOUNTS...THUS FAVORING THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM REGARDING QPF.
 HOWEVER...THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH ARE
UNCLEAR...WITH NEARLY EQUAL PROBABILITIES FOR A FASTER/WEAKER
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z GFS...AND FOR A SLOWER/STRONGER
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH ITS STRUCTURE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW UNIFIED THE PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS AS IT NEARS
THE WEST COAST.  HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM WITH ITS SOLUTION NEAR THE
FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERED LEAST PROBABLE AT THIS
TIME...AND SO WAS NOT USED.

...EASTERN U.S....

HAVE REMAINED QUITE CLOSE TO CONTINUITY AND AN INTERMEDIATE
POSITION INVOLVING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR POSSIBLE INFLUENCES FROM
THE SPLITTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND.  WHILE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED...SOME SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 12Z GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN
THE CONSENSUS DUE TO FASTER ARRIVAL OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 00Z
ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN ARE STRONGER DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND POSSIBLE
GREATER INFLUENCES.  THUS...CURRENT QPF VALUES ARE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.1 INCHES BUT COULD BE HIGHER OR LOWER ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST DEPENDING IN WHICH OUTCOME PREVAILS.  CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH SPREAD AND SHORT WAVELENGTH OF
THE TROUGH.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

JAMES

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 467620 474632 472642 471655 470667 468681 466692 460712
      456722 453729 451735 452744 451748 450754 445764 441773
      438786 437792 435795 431802 428807 425808 419816 414817
      412814 415802 416797 413797 413800 410804 407808 402816
      382847 371864 359878 354884 348889 341895 334900 326905
      313905 306901 301899 297899 287898 279895 274894 270892
      265885 261880 259875 255873 248873 244871 241869 240865
      239860 240855 241851 241847 239844 236841 235835 234830
      234824 236813 240804 243794 249789 255784 262780 279770
      297760 305756 312751 321747 327742 342730 357716 370704
      425652 436632 467620
 0.01 521272 533225 539205 539197 537193 534190 532184 531179
      529177 527172 524168 520161 514167 511169 510173 511178
      515179 519182 521187 521192 524194 524198 524202 523206
      522214 520218 519225 516230 512231 509227 503221 500219
      496218 492220 491224 491235 490237 487236 484236 480234
      477231 472232 469234 464233 462235 458236 451237 448242
      447249 446256 447261 454264 457267 462269 479279 483286
      489293 497297 504296 511293 516284 521272
 0.01 522039 523028 521021 516016 511012 508004 510001 513999
      516997 516994 513988 509983 504980 497980 494979 492977
      483976 477973 471970 466968 462967 455968 447969 439968
      432968 427968 425970 424973 425975 428978 431978 436981
      440985 442986 442989 440990 438988 432987 428987 424985
      417984 414982 411982 406984 403989 403996 408011 413015
      416017 419018 422017 424015 427008 432004 436004 440005
      443007 446007 448010 454015 448019 442021 438028 435032
      433030 430030 429033 431037 425040 424043 425046 429050
      439060 444064 447068 450071 453071 457072 459069 460068
      461062 459059 459054 456047 453042 452039 453037 455035
      459035 461033 467031 475031 479032 481034 482041 490051
      507070 512074 515073 516070 516064 515060 513053 512049
      513047 517044 522039
 0.01 500248 500245 499242 498242 497241 496242 497243 497245
      498245 499248 500248
 0.01 472897 470895 468895 467895 466895 465898 465900 465903
      465905 467906 468905 469905 470903 470902 470900 472898
      472897
 0.01 470880 470878 469877 468877 466876 466875 464876 463878
      461878 461879 462881 463881 464881 466881 468881 469881
      470880
 0.01 464829 463818 463814 461810 458802 456796 450794 447795
      444797 439801 436806 433812 430821 419827 421830 428831
      433834 440835 445839 448840 449845 449848 453848 455850
      456847 462834 464829
 0.01 449080 449077 448075 445072 443072 440071 436071 434073
      438074 439072 443072 444075 446077 449080 449080
 0.01 428876 428871 427869 424868 421867 419867 416867 412868
      410868 410870 412875 414877 416877 419877 423877 426876
      428876
 0.01 412970 413963 412956 408945 403935 395929 393924 389922
      385919 382916 375909 370907 364907 358907 357908 356911
      356915 354918 350916 346919 346925 348931 350934 357942
      361943 363938 366935 370939 375948 377952 378960 380965
      383970 386973 390975 403976 407975 409973 412970
 0.25 518271 520265 520258 520254 518249 515242 511236 503233
      497229 495229 495234 499240 502248 504257 501257 499254
      494248 489242 485242 483247 483253 484257 486267 490273
      495280 499284 502288 506289 509288 511284 513279 515277
      518271
 0.25 458662 457653 456650 454649 448648 443652 433660 425670
      419682 414695 409700 405706 408712 409714 410718 410733
      407738 404741 395751 390753 384751 383749 384746 386740
      391729 393720 394716 393713 387714 379716 369721 359727
      348735 339742 320759 301775 293780 281785 268786 263790
      260794 253805 249810 246817 243830 244835 247839 255845
      263847 273854 280863 285866 290867 294861 295853 297846
      300840 300835 295833 286839 282843 279844 277842 282833
      291824 304819 310821 318820 341812 342818 341824 342832
      343838 343844 346848 343851 341852 332853 325857 321857
      317857 314858 311865 310873 312882 314887 316889 320889
      329882 336876 345866 353857 357858 358866 359868 362865
      365858 370846 376835 387815 390809 391802 390799 387799
      383802 377806 377801 384791 391779 398769 404760 411751
      427732 435722 438716 440709 445704 448699 453685 456673
      458662
 0.25 308803 308801 308799 307798 305799 305800 305802 304804
      305804 307804 308803
 0.50 517270 519260 518252 515245 512241 506237 503238 501241
      503246 505255 507261 509267 512273 517270
 0.50 508283 508278 507274 506269 504263 500258 495252 491249
      489250 488254 488262 491268 494273 498278 502283 507285
      508283
 0.50 390767 389764 387765 382768 368773 372759 372751 371743
      367739 360738 354740 348743 343746 337751 328760 325765
      323768 323772 330774 329781 328788 328795 333799 339797
      346795 353793 357787 362783 366780 364788 363792 364797
      360803 360808 362812 364811 372801 380791 384785 386779
      389772 390767
 0.50 287823 285819 283819 279813 275811 271814 268816 266815
      268810 268806 265804 261803 256805 253810 250821 249828
      253832 257836 259842 264841 270839 275836 279832 287823
 0.50 278807 276806 274807 275809 276809 278807
 1.00 514266 515262 515256 514253 512250 511248 510245 508243
      506242 505244 505247 506251 507256 508259 509262 510264
      512267 514266
 1.00 505279 505273 504268 502264 499261 496256 494252 492252
      491255 491261 493266 495270 497273 500277 502279 505279
      505279
 1.50 512260 511258 511257 510255 509254 509253 508251 507250
      507251 508253 508256 509259 510259 511261 512260
 1.50 502275 503271 502267 500265 499263 497260 495257 493256
      492258 493261 495264 496268 498270 499272 501275 502275

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 522264 521255 521245 523235 527229 531223 535215 537209
      536200 538193 539187 538184 533173 531166 527160 523155
      519149 516142 515132 515126 517120 519114 527104 529101
      531096 534088 536080 536070 537060 536053 536045 528044
      522044 519043 515040 513019 516001 518991 519981 520976
      520972 517965 514960 510965 508972 505976 493998 488003
      482007 476019 476024 477029 477037 480041 482043 487048
      489055 486062 484067 483070 480072 481089 480094 479097
      475101 472111 477115 488124 495135 492135 489132 485128
      479126 471125 467120 466116 468114 469112 470108 466105
      464102 464097 465087 468080 469068 470045 469036 466031
      463029 460036 460041 458045 457050 455053 452067 450069
      446069 439069 436071 437077 442078 444081 448087 447092
      443093 438090 436092 433092 426091 428095 429098 429101
      428104 424105 423105 422110 422115 426115 429117 427122
      431123 435121 441121 443128 445136 445141 442144 438148
      437153 437157 438161 440164 443171 442175 440178 436181
      431184 426185 418196 415199 412204 415208 417210 418213
      416216 414215 412219 413229 412234 410237 408239 406244
      406249 408251 410254 413255 420258 426259 432259 438259
      445260 455259 461258 463258 466260 466266 466270 463279
      459287 458292 459297 461299 466299 469297 470300 470303
      467315 469320 471325 478328 483325 489314 492309 496303
      499300 503298 510296
 0.01 486194 483192 480191 476190 473191 468191 463192 459197
      456204 457209 459207 462208 465207 469203 475203 479199
      484196 486194
 0.01 487975 487967 486964 483960 480959 472954 466951 454945
      442940 425934 409930 389912 385909 382906 376903 371898
      368894 366890 362884 359878 355872 350866 338857 332852
      329850 324850 323851 324854 325857 328865 329868 330872
      330883 332893 336900 342905 346912 353926 357934 354936
      350938 348941 348947 350951 359963 366977 369983 375988
      378988 383990 389995 390984 403989 407989 407986 403979
      401977 398974 391970 386965 378963 365958 363950 363945
      364941 368943 371943 376947 394951 399951 402954 407959
      412962 417964 426966 431967 434969 441972 449975 464980
      466981 470982 477982 481980 484980 487975
 0.01 454735 452732 448731 440733 433730 428728 428724 430721
      433716 434711 433704 430697 426696 424693 426685 433673
      439663 436660 439653 440644 440638 439638 423643 415647
      410652 399660 388669 377676 367683 357689 349695 342699
      330707 319714 307724 299731 292736 287740 268754 247772
      241785 237789 235796 230809 230825 233829 238830 243829
      250827 255826 259824 261818 260807 261803 263801 269796
      278795 294793 300790 304786 309783 316781 319783 320785
      326788 332790 334792 335798 336810 339818 343824 345825
      347823 352820 356815 360808 362804 361799 361794 364791
      369787 381784 373776 370771 369766 367764 371756 376751
      381745 383743 386742 385754 387757 386760 383762 379764
      380765 388776 390781 390786 390791 388793 380801 371808
      368812 365815 361820 353833 352836 353839 358838 363833
      365830 368829 374830 377823 377816 382816 386810 391806
      395805 396814 397818 399824 402831 407836 412840 418839
      414835 413832 410828 407820 406801 411797 411805 412807
      415807 421806 429798 431793 434791 436787 437783 437775
      431771 424770 420765 418762 415760 410754 413746 416741
      421735 424730 437743 449741 454735
 0.01 418078 419067 417064 415064 412067 411071 411077 409080
      408091 406095 406100 405112 408112 410110 410103 412094
      414085 417081 418078
 0.01 386196 384195 383193 381192 379192 378191 378192 377194
      379195 381195 383196 384196 386196 386196
 0.25 531205 531201 529198 529188 529180 527172 526168 523166
      518164 514166 510163 499156 493155 489158 468145 464142
      460142 456145 452152 452157 453159 458165 459168 458172
      454176 451181 450192 452194 454191 458187 462183 464177
      464174 466171 471169 476169 481173 486177 496182 502182
      507186 515195 520200 525203 528207 531205
 0.25 515277 517265 516254 512239 509230 505223 496211 489208
      482207 470212 458218 453221 456222 460225 482223 487225
      489228 494235 501248 501253 498253 493247 489241 482238
      479234 477233 474232 471233 468237 469240 473245 479250
      482258 481275 481280 483284 487291 493292 499291 505289
      510286 513282 515277
 0.25 492147 492144 490141 489137 487135 485133 483132 479131
      478132 476137 479138 481140 483142 486143 488146 490148
      492147
 0.25 456105 456103 455101 453101 452102 453104 454105 454106
      456105
 0.25 423672 420662 417660 414662 409664 397674 387682 382687
      379693 376707 354723 349727 343732 336741 330746 334752
      340751 344746 349742 351745 353744 362736 373726 383719
      391707 399698 403692 406685 408683 411682 416686 420680
      423672
 0.25 245805 244803 241802 239804 238806 236810 235812 235814
      235818 235822 237824 238824 240821 241819 242816 243813
      244811 245807 245805
 0.50 524184 524183 524182 523179 522181 521183 520183 519185
      519186 520187 522187 523187 524185 524184
 0.50 524171 522170 521173 522174 523173 524171
 0.50 512255 512249 510244 509238 508235 502228 498219 495214
      491212 485211 482211 479216 481219 489224 495231 499240
      504249 508257 512255
 0.50 504284 505274 506270 505266 501261 497258 496254 491248
      486246 486256 487264 489273 494280 499285 503286 504284
 0.50 479238 477237 475237 475238 477240 478241 479238
 0.50 475159 475156 473153 471151 469150 466147 464146 463149
      462151 462156 463158 465160 468161 471161 473160 475159
 1.00 494223 493220 493219 492217 490215 489215 487215 486218
      487218 488219 490220 491221 492222 493223 494223


24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 559894 558871 558861 555857 546848 543843 538839 536837
      534837 530840 521847 520849 517848 516838 516828 516819
      515797 511796 507798 492802 479804 474807 467808 451811
      442815 434821 428826 423829 415835 412837 409838 403843
      393849 374862 372891 369907 368910 369913 373916 378920
      383922 387927 393929 398927 402927 402931 402938 403946
      409956 412961 416964 421966 424966 427964 433964 437962
      442961 444968 447986 447996 446003 442021 440028 436030
      428037 426039 425042 425048 426049 433058 433067 433071
      434073 446081 449085 450088 450092 441096 437098 432095
      429092 427093 429096 431097 432102 433110 441112 444118
      448121 452117 454115 458114 470116 475119 480118 484118
      484115 481112 478107 473101 472095 469090 464092 461091
      459088 458081 456075 448062 455053 462042 468033 471019
      476014 479012 482013 487015 492016 494015 496017 494024
      491033 488041 493051 495054 498054 504055 510056 514053
      523047 528042 531037 534033 536027 540019 542013 545994
      547982 547973 548952 551938 553933 555925 557918 558915
      558909 559894
 0.01 534223 536213 536206 536197 535190 534184 531180 524171
      520169 517172 514173 511172 507169 504171 504176 506182
      509186 512191 514197 517201 520207 525217 527221 532223
      534223
 0.01 521269 524255 523247 521242 519236 516230 512226 510221
      507216 503211 493206 489206 482205 476205 473206 470212
      469217 470219 474224 475227 470229 465231 462235 461240
      467244 470248 473253 474260 476266 478272 483283 485297
      489302 493303 497301 501297 508289 519276
 0.01 430699 429694 426692 418690 412689 402691 398693 395696
      389701 383707 381716 380726 379734 381738 384740 388741
      390744 396749 400749 404748 407746 409742 406736 404730
      406726 413720 414710 416705 418703 426704 430699
 0.01 417071 416064 414061 408065 406070 406077 407082 407086
      406093 408100 408093 409084 409079 411075 415073 417071
 0.01 399204 396200 391197 386193 380190 375186 373186 372188
      372193 374193 377194 382198 387203 391204 394203 398204
      399204
 0.01 398113 396112 394112 391113 388114 385114 383115 381117
      379119 380121 382122 384121 387120 390119 392117 394115
      396115 398113
 0.01 401076 400071 396071 394064 391067 387067 380069 374072
      372079 375085 378087 380086 383083 386082 389084 391082
      397078 401076
 0.01 337865 337860 335854 334850 332843 328835 324829 318828
      316825 314825 313828 313832 313845 316856 318860 322862
      326870 328874 332875 335871 336867 337865
 0.25 530202 530200 530197 529194 528192 526192 525193 525195
      526198 526201 527202 528204 530202
 0.25 518271 519264 520258 517249 511231 506223 500218 493213
      488211 484212 482214 482219 487226 488230 487232 484234
      480232 475232 472235 472239 473243 481258 486266 490273
      494280 498283 502285 514276 518271
 0.25 535944 536936 536930 535914 534904 530894 525888 519884
      512879 506877 499873 494866 490865 486865 481869 469882
      464888 463896 463906 463909 466909 471909 475908 476911
      475914 473922 472927 472931 471940 469946 466950 465954
      464959 464962 468966 473965 481964 483960 483954 483947
      484943 486938 488934 491932 496930 498932 499937 497947
      494956 492960 491963 492967 494969 497971 506970 514968
      521966 527963 532953 535944
 0.25 475847 473844 469842 464843 461844 456847 453849 450853
      449858 453859 458858 462856 467855 470853 474850 475847
 0.25 463920 463918 462916 460918 461920 462922 463920
 0.50 516270 517264 517259 515251 512242 510233 509230 506226
      501222 493217 487215 487218 488221 490229 490238 482237
      478235 476236 475241 476245 480251 484258 489264 492271
      497278 501280 505279 509275 515272 516270
 1.00 513263 511260 512257 512252 511249 505234 498229 495228
      493233 495237 497242 501248 503255 504260 503261 498254
      494248 488242 481242 481246 483250 487256 491263 494270
      499274 504270 507267 510265 513263
 1.50 500269 499263 498259 495254 494251 491247 487246 486248
      488254 490257 492262 495266 498270 500269
 1.50 502243 501241 500240 499238 499237 498236 497237 497238
      498240 499240 500241 502243 502243
 2.00 496262 496260 496259 496257 495256 494254 493253 492252
      490251 489252 490254 490255 491257 492258 493260 494261
      494262 495263 496262

$$




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