Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181905
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EST WED JAN 18 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 19/0000 UTC THRU JAN 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SE TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN
VALLEY...

AN AMPLIFIED AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVLY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HEIGHT FALLS AND FAVORABLE UPPER JET FLOW/DIFFLUENCE
WILL ENHANCE LIFT IN A MOISTURE FUELED REGION AS PER 30-40 KT LLJ
INFLOW INTO/OVER A LOWER ATMOSPHERIC AND WAVY FRONTAL ZONE. THE
REGION HAS A MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE TROPICAL
ERN PACIFIC AND THROUGH LOWER LEVELS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SUPPORTS MODEL PRECIPITATBLE WATER VALUES THAT PLUME/POOL TO AOA
1.75". WHILE ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH WITH
SYSTEM NEG TILT LATER PERIOD...HEIGHT FALLS AND CONVECTION RELATED
GRADIENTS SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS HEAVIEST CONVECTION (UPWARDS OF
2-4"+ LOCALLY WITH TRAINING) MORE TO THE SOUTH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE 12 UTC ARW/GEM REGIONAL AND RECENT UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. A COMPOSITE OF THESE CLUSTERED SOLUTIONS
MAINTAINS CLOSE WPC CONTINUITY. THE GFS/GEFS/NAM CONTINUE TO OFFER
A MORE NORTHWARD SHIFTED CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

SATELLITE/BLENDED TPW LOOPS SHOW A LONG FETCH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
SLAMMING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS BACK
THROUGH THE WRN TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS IS FUELING HEAVY RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION AND INLAND ICE AND SNOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PWS IN THE 700/500
MB LAYER ARE QUITE HIGH AND WILL BE AIMED NEARLY ORTHOGONAL INTO
ESPECIALLY THE SW OR/NRN CA COASTAL RANGES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN
DOWN INTO CENTRAL THEN SRN CA AND THE SIERRA-NEVADA INTO THURSDAY.
ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX AND PW ANOMALIES WILL BE IN PLACE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELD AND UPSTREAM MOISTURE FEED WITH
PW VALUES OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE SOME
LOCALLY TERRAIN ENHANCED RAINS UPWARDS TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
WEAKENING. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS
INCLUDING DEBRIS FLOWS AND MUDSLIDES NEAR ANY BURN SCAR AREAS.
THESE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING IN PARTICULAR.
RUNOFF PROBLEMS HERE WILL ALSO AGAIN BE A CONCERN AND ESPECIALLY
WITH SUCH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. FARTHER INLAND...THE DEEP
FETCH OF MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN
COLDER AIR OVER THE N-CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHICH WILL
PROMOTE A LARGE AREA OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW BUT
ALSO LINGERING FREEZING RAIN/ICING OVER THE DEEPER INTERIOR
VALLEYS. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
EXPECTED WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 469621 476627 482636 484642 488647 494650 500657 503663
      505670 505694 507710 505725 504730 501736 497743 487763
      479784 475793 472798 467800 463797 461793 461789 464784
      469775 471769 472761 469755 467751 463749 457749 446752
      442755 439762 436763 434760 431754 433749 434744 434738
      434734 431733 430731 429729 427731 423733 422730 426722
      425717 422712 422708 425703 428700 429694 430689 431685
      429683 429672 429666 431658 433649 436644 439641 441637
      443634 449628
 0.01 535201 536194 536189 530181 524171 520168 517164 513162
      510159 503152 492139 489136 485134 480133 478132 472138
      481144 482147 481149 477150 472148 470145 467140 464138
      464129 463125 464118 464117 461112 452110 450111 447111
      440110 432106 421105 413107 411107 409105 408100 406092
      404086 402083 399087 394083 388085 381080 375079 370081
      365086 360086 356084 343101 340095 335095 333098 331103
      331111 330118 328124 324131 322136 322142 321146 319149
      315151 303150 301154 299160 297166 299167 305173 307175
      309179 314185 320192 326200 328211 339225 345231 350237
      371244 389255 399260 409264 419266 423268 427267 447273
      458277 464279 466278 469279 488286 498290 508293 511284
      516275 519270 519264 520255 519247 517235 516228 514224
      513218 513215 515214 519215 522214 528215 531211 535201
 0.01 434909 434898 432890 423874 419867 415863 411857 405852
      393846 386844 378840 365838 362839 357840 351842 350837
      348835 345841 341844 336845 326846 307847 300849 294853
      284862 275875 267886 264893 261899 255911 246925 244932
      244943 244953 243960 241968 242979 246984 249986 248988
      246991 242997 240007 239014 239018 241020 243022 247023
      254020 257017 260015 264013 266010 271005 277001 286991
      290987 294981 298974 304968 315960 321957 328959 336958
      340957 344956 356947 367938 369936 373934 379940 384943
      388943 391941 400939 407941 415941 422938 428933 431926
      434909
 0.01 409789 407787 405787 403789 400790 398791 395793 393794
      391796 392799 395798 397796 400795 404795 405794 407792
      409789
 0.25 516259 516252 515244 510230 503215 499210 491207 486202
      482203 472210 466211 461211 452215 442217 436221 431222
      427223 423223 421219 421215 420211 418208 413204 412201
      408199 402201 396198 388194 380187 375183 370180 366177
      364171 362164 366163 370163 371160 373162 380165 387167
      392168 396170 402174 408176 413181 415183 418181 422178
      424176 428176 433180 437184 442186 447185 458182 470173
      474175 476178 477182 479190 481193 484196 487196 489194
      494190 503184 508183 514185 518189 522192 522188 518182
      513177 508173 501169 496163 491159 485157 480158 475158
      472156 467153 463153 462158 461163 460166 459165 455161
      452155 443145 437128 433124 426127 417133 407126 401123
      397124 396127 396132 395136 393140 389140 382138 379137
      378133 375127 372120 366118 355127 349117 344113 340113
      339116 340121 338131 339136 340139 343144 347155 350157
      349161 345160 330158 313158 310160 310164 313169 322178
      326182 329188 331193 331199 332205 334212 337217 343222
      369237 380242 394247 402250 410252 422253 432253 445251
      458251 467253 475256 483265 491276 496281 502284 507282
      510278 512274 514267 516259
 0.25 486236 487233 487231 485233 486235 486236 486236
 0.25 480680 480675 477675 475674 472673 470673 468674 466677
      466681 465684 465687 467689 470687 472688 474687 477684
      478683 480680
 0.25 400901 401894 399887 394876 389869 382862 375857 370856
      364855 352855 342858 332862 321866 310869 303872 295877
      287885 277900 273907 268917 264927 262937 259947 254958
      252962 254968 259970 261972 267980 271981 277979 283974
      290966 296960 304954 312949 319945 337935 344931 350930
      354927 363923 366921 369915 379916 384916 387913 391908
      395906 400901
 0.25 359163 358162 356161 355162 356164 358164 359163
 0.50 513263 514259 515253 513245 510235 507228 500216 497213
      493213 486211 481211 474214 472216 468216 464214 460215
      449221 444223 444226 447227 453227 457228 458231 443231
      439234 435234 430233 424233 419228 417223 417218 416214
      413211 410211 405207 400203 393199 383192 372184 358177
      352180 349178 347175 345169 341164 336162 331162 327160
      322160 320160 316163 315166 317168 323173 327177 330181
      333186 335195 335204 338211 342216 347221 359228 371234
      386242 401247 414249 428250 441248 455246 465246 472247
      480249 488265 495276 498278 502279 505277 507274 513263
 0.50 503254 502248 500244 494237 490228 488223 485220 479219
      474219 472221 469225 475227 478231 481235 483245 490244
      496251 498255 501256 503254
 0.50 452173 452166 451161 446154 440147 437138 434135 429133
      425136 423140 422145 424150 426159 429163 433166 439172
      442174 446174 452173
 0.50 407159 407156 407154 406152 404151 403151 401153 400155
      401157 402158 403160 405160 407159
 0.50 375143 374139 370136 365137 363141 360141 356138 351139
      352144 357145 361145 363144 366145 369147 373147 375143
 0.50 380895 380890 380884 379878 377874 371869 365867 351861
      345862 338867 332870 323873 309878 301880 294885 288890
      284895 275908 272914 270921 269931 267941 266950 267958
      272963 275965 281965 286962 292957 305949 317941 341924
      353915 364907 374902 378898 380895
 1.00 502236 502233 502232 501230 500228 500227 500224 499224
      498221 496221 495221 493222 493225 493228 494229 494230
      495233 496235 498236 499236 501237 502236
 1.00 445240 444239 443240 444240 445240 445240
 1.00 446162 445160 443157 441154 440152 438151 436148 434145
      432144 430147 430152 431154 432157 435160 437161 439163
      442165 445164 446162
 1.00 430243 428240 424237 415233 413229 414224 413218 412216
      408215 405212 399206 385196 372185 363182 357182 356187
      362192 365195 367200 370208 368210 363208 355204 352201
      349197 345179 343170 340167 337168 340172 340174 338174
      335169 335167 330164 325165 326168 332174 337181 339189
      340200 341204 344208 351213 356218 358221 362224 379232
      395241 404244 413244 424246 428245 430243
 1.00 366889 364883 360877 352870 344870 338873 329879 305889
      293894 288897 284902 277912 275916 274925 275933 274943
      277950 283951 288952 294949 303943 323930 333922 342915
      351906 359899 363894 366889
 1.50 442159 441156 439155 438154 436153 435155 436156 437158
      439159 440161 442159
 1.50 411223 411221 410220 408220 407222 407224 407225 408227
      410225 411225 411223
 1.50 404217 402211 399208 390202 382195 375188 370185 364184
      360185 362189 369196 376205 379208 384211 394216 398219
      403218 404217
 1.50 372222 373220 372218 370218 369219 369222 371223 372222
 1.50 365220 366219 365216 363214 362213 360212 358211 357212
      357214 358215 358217 359218 360219 361220 362221 364221
      365220
 1.50 346198 346196 346195 346196 346198 346198
 1.50 355894 356887 354879 350875 346874 337879 329884 320889
      311893 300897 291901 288903 284908 280916 279923 279929
      280935 280941 283944 289946 297942 314931 330919 337913
      343906 355894
 2.00 400216 400211 397208 392204 385200 379194 374189 368186
      364186 364189 370194 375200 381204 386208 393212 399216
      400216
 2.00 350892 350886 349882 347879 344880 329888 322893 314896
      297903 289906 286910 284914 284918 284925 285935 286940
      292940 299937 307932 314926 326916 339905 345899 350892

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