Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 301743
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
142 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 31/0000 UTC THRU JUN 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...

MODELS SHOW STRONG LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT WITH THE MERGER OF THE
REMNANT MCV OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH THE LOW OVER
ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN A NARROW BUT HEAVY AXIS OF RAINFALL ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF THE MERGING LOWS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE DEEP AND
PROLONGED ASCENT GENERATED BY THE MERGER WITH ITS SUBSEQUENT
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED TO ITS EAST FAVOR PROLONGED MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/00Z
ECMWF AND SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE USED TO GENERATE THE QPF...ALTHOUGH
THE NAM MAY BE SUFFERING FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK EARLY IN THE
PERIOD IN VICINITY OF THE LOW IN ILLINOIS...SO THE QPF WAS SHADED
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE NAM APPEARS QUITE USEFUL ESPECIALLY WHEN BLENDED
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY.

TEXAS/LOWER-MIDDLE MS AND TN VALLEYS...

THE NAM/GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE HI-RES GUIDANCE CAPTURE
REASONABLY WELL THE ONGOING EVOLUTION OF THE MCV OVER TEXAS AND
DEPICT A SIMILAR EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST PATH INTO THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY BEFORE DECELERATING DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE PLAINS.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME DRAPED
AHEAD OF THE MCV...WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TN VALLEY SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MS...LA...AND THE TEXAS COAST AS A COLD FRONT
DRAPED NORTH OF THE MCV SURGES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD AND CATCHES UP
WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME.

NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE N. PLAINS...

MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE OCCASIONALLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
MOST ORGANIZED AREA POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW
LEVEL JET.  USED A COMBINATION OF THE NAM BLENDED WITH SOME GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF TO DERIVE THE AMOUNTS.

FLORIDA...

DEEPER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE WIDESPREAD
AND HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH THIS
EVENING COMPARED TO EASTERN FLORIDA BEFORE RESUMING ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  RELIED MOSTLY UPON THE HIGHER RESOLVING NAM FOR
GUIDANCE.

JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 461623 463628 463629 463635 464640 464650 466652 468650
      473644 480642 482644 483649 483654 486654 490653 493650
      498648 501650 510667 509675 506684 503694 499700 485725
      478739 477746 473752 468769 463779 460787 454803 448821
      439852 436860 433866 427877 415888 408892 399894 391894
      385897 380903 376910 373916 369920 364925 359932 354934
      349938 341948 336954 331955 326955 321950 316956 309974
      304980 302982 301987 302004 302008 300012 296019 293023
      287026 281026 274024 256019 245018 240012 236007 234005
      234001 233993 232987 235985 244977 251975 259974 266971
      270967 273961 275954 279947 281944 283939 286923 289906
      291901 294897 299891 302885 304878 306870 305858 296852
      288840 282836 279835 274835 264833 257829 251826 247821
      245817 244812 243809 243805 246798 249793 256790 265790
      270792 275796 287800 302804 305806 308810 315810 320809
      323810 328816 336814 346809 352807 357804 363800 368794
      376784 378782 378778 374772 371768 367766 360765 350762
      348756 355752 362753 367756 372756 374753 382743 392731
      396726 398719 404707 419675 425657 432643 439631
 0.01 530205 532184 526169 521157 517152 512148 505144 497142
      491135 489132 485131 480127 475125 474123 474121 477112
      480111 484113 489114 493109 493105 496104 505104 509099
      510091 504080 499072 495066 492062 491057 487047 481031
      479025 475019 472004 467988 463986 458991 457983 454975
      451968 448966 444964 440963 435963 427961 421961 418962
      416966 416968 417975 419978 422979 429980 431982 431985
      428987 424987 419989 413001 413004 416006 423006 429004
      435006 438008 449018 451020 451024 450029 451033 454041
      459047 461050 461052 459054 455057 453060 449058 444054
      437056 432053 429049 425046 417041 411039 409036 410033
      414028 416024 415021 413017 409016 393020 388024 385029
      382035 383039 383042 381044 378043 376042 372038 369031
      364029 361027 357029 354034 351040 345043 343045 339046
      334046 330047 325048 321050 317056 317063 319069 326070
      333067 344064 350062 356065 369074 372080 375087 382090
      385090 390089 393088 398088 400091 399094 397097 397102
      397109 398113 402114 410116 416116 419116 420113 421110
      421106 420099 416087 415083 415076 415067 417064 420065
      425069 426072 428075 431073 435074 441078 445083 441086
      436090 434092 432091 430089 428087 425086 426089 433100
      434104 434110 438118 438124 439128 443130 444134 446141
      448145 446145 444146 443150 448156 449159 450164 448170
      448180 451186 457185 461182 468171 474169 479169 482171
      493184 498191 500193 504196 514203 516206 521205 530205
 0.01 498159 496154 493152 488149 485146 482143 479142 475142
      473143 472146 474151 477153 481155 485158 488161 493162
      497161 498159
 0.01 445285 446280 445275 443271 437270 434270 431268 426259
      408250 406248 402248 397247 392247 383246 376249 371256
      368259 369265 371273 373276 377279 387283 398287 418294
      426295 431295 435294 440291 445285
 0.01 456221 457217 454214 451215 449215 446216 444216 440216
      438217 436218 436221 437224 441226 444227 447226 449226
      451225 454223 456221
 0.01 445036 446034 445033 443032 443031 442030 440029 438029
      437029 435029 434030 433032 432033 432035 433036 434037
      434039 436039 438040 438041 438040 440040 441040 443039
      443038 445037 445036
 0.01 398825 398822 395821 392820 388823 386827 383830 380834
      378837 378844 378846 381847 384843 386840 389837 392833
      394830 397827 398825
 0.01 342096 342089 341085 342078 343076 340071 337071 334073
      331076 328079 328085 329090 331092 334097 338098 342096
      342096
 0.01 308085 307076 299069 295067 292066 279065 271060 263054
      258049 249044 240041 236041 231045 229054 235062 242067
      249073 255078 264083 273086 277088 284089 288091 293092
      297094 300095 302093 306091 308085
 0.25 490139 489139 488136 487136 486136 484135 482134 481133
      479133 477133 477134 476136 477137 479137 480137 482136
      484136 486137 487139 489139 490140 490139
 0.25 474664 473661 470662 467667 460679 457685 455686 454684
      454676 454669 455658 454653 452649 449647 446648 442653
      436666 429681 419706 411730 408736 405743 398754 395773
      386786 380796 379798 379803 381805 385804 390801 393798
      398793 402792 405795 406801 405813 404830 401838 400842
      397846 388854 377859 371860 365856 361853 359848 364838
      369823 370818 368815 364815 361817 354826 350834 348840
      349849 348853 346855 337864 329871 320877 314881 309886
      304892 300898 297904 295912 295922 294931 285956 279965
      272973 268978 264983 256982 247983 242987 240991 242996
      245002 252006 258008 261008 268006 272001 271994 272989
      282984 288978 292973 299964 308952 312947 317942 322941
      326945 328946 332946 338943 345934 354927 359923 364916
      367911 369904 370895 368887 369883 372880 381878 390883
      396885 400887 404886 409884 414881 421872 426865 429859
      435846 438838 440829 443810 445796 448780 451766 455753
      459737 465720 471704 473697 474690 473684 473678 474664
 0.25 471153 470150 468147 466146 463144 460145 457146 456150
      458152 460153 462153 463154 467155 469155 471153
 0.25 473039 473031 471028 468024 464021 463018 459015 459019
      461023 463028 464033 467037 470040 473039
 0.25 454113 455110 455108 455105 454103 453100 452097 451097
      451100 450102 449103 448104 447104 447106 447107 449109
      450112 452113 454113 454113
 0.25 458008 457005 456004 456003 455002 453000 451999 450998
      448998 446999 446000 446001 446002 448004 448005 449007
      450007 451008 453010 454010 455010 456010 458008
 0.25 334056 334055 332054 330054 329054 328055 328056 330056
      332056 334056 334056
 0.25 305838 303834 299832 293827 287823 283820 279817 271814
      268812 265813 263815 262817 266821 272824 280829 287831
      292832 296834 299836 301837 302834 305838
 0.25 264805 263804 261804 259805 258805 260806 261806 263805
      264805
 0.50 464695 464690 461693 456699 443715 426749 420768 417776
      413780 411786 409808 407836 404843 399851 394859 392864
      389870 389874 390879 396883 401884 407882 414877 421870
      425864 429855 433842 438823 442798 446777 447766 450753
      461711 464695
 0.50 449670 449664 446661 441668 435683 430697 426704 421710
      418717 416726 416735 418740 420743 424743 426740 428731
      432715 434708 441703 443695 445686 449670
 0.50 397784 396782 395781 394781 393782 392783 391785 390785
      389787 389788 387790 386792 388794 389794 391792 393790
      393789 394788 395787 396786 397784
 0.50 365876 365872 365866 362863 358862 353863 348866 329883
      324887 320890 311890 306895 300906 298913 298924 299928
      298933 296939 290954 286964 286968 288968 294964 302956
      310945 314940 320938 324937 327939 330941 332941 341933
      352924 356921 360916 363910 365907 365900 362894 362890
      365876
 0.50 341908 340904 337905 333907 330910 327913 324915 321920
      321922 326922 330921 334919 338917 339912 341908
 0.50 268997 266993 263990 259988 255986 250987 246990 245994
      247998 250000 254002 258002 262001 266999 268997
 1.00 451726 451722 449721 445725 442730 440737 438743 436750
      436758 438758 440755 442750 445744 447738 450731 451726
 1.00 441781 441773 439769 436768 432772 428776 426780 420790
      416799 416806 416814 415829 412841 401858 401865 402870
      401876 401880 406880 409878 413875 417870 423863 428852
      431842 433828 437801 441781
 1.00 359907 359903 358901 355899 355894 353893 352897 351901
      351903 350908 350912 351914 353914 357912 358910 359907
 1.00 308941 309939 310937 308936 307935 306934 306935 305935
      304937 303938 302939 301941 300943 300945 300947 300949
      301952 303950 303949 305947 306945 307944 307943 308941
      308941
 1.50 435794 436782 434780 430783 426790 423799 421808 421820
      420830 417839 414847 408854 405860 405865 407868 411870
      410873 413873 416868 420863 424855 427848 430838 432815
      433807 435795 435794
 2.00 428836 428832 426829 422834 419840 416846 414851 412857
      408861 408865 410866 415864 419860 422855 425849 427843
      428836
 3.00 422848 422846 421846 420847 419849 420851 422849 422848

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.