Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221814
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 23/0000 UTC THRU JUL 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES/CNTL HI PLAINS...

SLOW RETROGRESSION OF STG UPR RIDGE FROM THE CNTL PLAINS/ROCKIES
INTO THE SW U.S. IS GENL AGREED TO BY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
EMBDD WITHIN THE RIDGE...CHANNEL OF MOISTURE PREDOMINANTLY ALONG
AND EAST OF NE/SW ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING.  SHWRS/TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BUILD WWD ACRS SRN AZ TOWARD SE CA WITH THE SLOW
RETROGRESSION OF THE UPR RIDGE.  LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK
HERE..WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE
DRIVEN..AIDED BY TOPO INFLUENCES.  MANUAL QPF THEREFORE WAS BASED
ON AN ENSEMBLE BLEND ALONG WITH CONTINUITY.  AREAL AVG AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENLY BETWEEN .10 TO .25 INCH THOUGH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS.


...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST...

EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS ACRS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO APCHG PAC NW UPR TROF AND ATTENDING COLD
FRONT FRI NIGHT/SAT.  MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN CONFLUENT SELY
85H FLOW FRI NIGHT ACRS THE CNTL/NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APCHG UPR TROF/LEE LOW...WHICH WILL HELP DRAW INCREASING HIGH
MLCAPES BETWEEN 3-5 THSD J/KG AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCD WARM
FRONTAL BNDRY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DVLPMENT OF SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES INVOF WARM FRONTAL BNDRY STRETCHING FROM THE
DAKOTAS SEWD TOWARD THE MN/IA BORDER REGION WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY
INTENSIFYING E/SEWD INTO PLUME OF 1.75 TO 2 INCH PWS POOLING ALONG
THE WARM FRONTAL BNDRY.  CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD EXISTS IN
QPFS..ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HIER RES CAM
GUIDANCE AND AS A RESULT...WHICH RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS.  MANUAL QPF GENLY STAYED SOUTH OF MOST
OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF..TAKING MORE OF A
MEAN APCH BETWEEN THE WRF NMM..ARW..HI RES NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
POTNL WILL EXIST FOR AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM SCNTL
ND/NCNTL SD SEWD INTO SRN MN/WRN WI/NRN IA...WITH ISOLD HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WHERE CELL MERGERS/TRAINING OCCUR.


...NORTHEAST...

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH S/WV DROPPING SEWD FROM ERN CANADA
WILL TRIGGER SCTD CNVTN ALONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT/SFC TROF AS
IT PUSHES ACRS NEWD ENGLAND ON SAT.  WLY 85H FLOW AHEAD OF TROF
WILL GENLY SUPPORT SCTD STORMS..BUT SOME ISOLD STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OR SO
GIVEN TIMING OF DVLPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING...THOUGH AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS FROM NRN NY INTO MAINE ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENLY .50 INCH
OR LESS IN LINE WITH GENL MODEL CONSENSUS.

...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST/FL...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SE/FL THIS PD WITH AREA OF
HIGH PWS..AT OR ABOVE 2"..UNDER UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL
U.S.  EASTERLY FLOW ACRS FLOW FL WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE SW COAST
OF FL FOR THE MORE ORGANIZED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY..
OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN
ACRS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST REGION.  KEPT GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THE 12Z WPC QPF WHICH STRONGLY RESEMBLED THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 558034 558027 557021 557015 556010 553987 546965 541957
      534952 527947 521950 515951 509951 500945 487935 482924
      477914 469898 464893 457889 450884 442884 436884 430883
      425876 419869 416864 415857 411845 409840 408836 409833
      410827 410820 411806 410799 409793 406792 407789 408785
      411777 415770 425758 431750 433750 434752 436756 450769
      455779 462783 467784 469789 475800 478804 481809 483802
      486791 488784 487780 480732 480726 479720 478713 476705
      475697 476692 481684 486674 487669 486662 481650 475639
      469633 465632 461633 455634 451639 450641 448639 445634
      438632 431636 419648 408660 395676 392687 389696 385705
      380712 376717 374720 375728 377732 385738 382752 381756
      380761 380771 380776 378781 374787 370795 367799 364799
      363796 358787 356783 354782 345786 346793 345798 340804
      338809 339815 341822 341826 340829 332830 327829 323826
      322823 323821 325816 321814 318816 313816 308812 291809
      285806 281804 279801 281796 277794 269791 258793 254794
      252793 251789 248785 244783 242779 240772 237769 231770
      226772 224777 224785 227797 230806 229810 229814 233820
      238824 255831 267843 274851 276855 280858 282863 283864
      282866 275867 273870 273877 276882 283887 284910 284915
      286919 288921 290926 290932 288935 285944 283954 285964
      288966 293966 299962 305958 311956 317956 334960 341958
      346958 350956 354951 358947 359941 362927 371925 370918
      370905 371903 373903 377902 385898 390898 394900 405915
      409925 408931 406936 400945 394954 389963 386975 385981
      386985 385990 382994 379996 376999 371007
 0.01 371007 366012 362019 357027 351033 338047 331051 329053
      333056 333058 331059 328059 330062 334062 339061 342063
      348064 352066 359073 365073 368077 374083 376087 377094
      375097 375103 374109 374114 378115 381112 384110 388113
      388119 392121 395119 395114 395107 398106 410105 412102
      412096 409088 405084 403085 401083 403077 406072 409068
      411064 411057 409053 408046 410041 411033 411021 408013
      408008 410005 416000 420997 425999 429001 430005 435016
      437021 438024 438028 440049 441053 445056 448055 452051
      456050 461050 469054 472055 473059 474066 475071 478077
      483082 485084 485092 485098 487101 490113 490122 490128
      490132 489136 485137 480136 476134 475136 478142 484171
      499179 504180 508178 516185 522189 527187 529183 527178
      523169 519159 517154 514151 512146 514139 515130 517124
      520115 523106 527095 529090 531086 543074 550065 552061
      554056 558034
 0.01 500230 499225 498222 495217 491212 484210 477209 474214
      473216 474219 474222 476222 483222 487220 489220 491222
      494228 496230 500230
 0.01 396742 395741 394740 393739 391739 389741 390744 392746
      394747 395745 395744 396742
 0.01 371093 364087 356086 352081 353073 344071 338071 333074
      328076 326081 325085 325089 322091 316091 314085 310080
      304076 296071 285066 275060 261055 248053 245053 242054
      242062 244068 247074 255081 264088 273095 292111 310122
      315127 316130 317134 314150 315155 319158 328153 334150
      336147 335142 329132 323124 319112 321109 325109 328105
      330103 329101 332098 334101 336105 338111 340117 343122
      347127 352131 356131 358129 359125 355113 349103 344092
      343088 347086 351090 355093 362095 367095 371093
 0.01 346778 345778 343779 343781 345781 346778
 0.01 343785 342783 340783 337786 335789 331791 328796 327801
      327805 329805 331802 334802 336800 339797 339795 341790
      343785
 0.01 332861 332854 331848 328844 326842 324840 321840 320843
      320847 320853 321860 321866 323870 324873 326872 330870
      331865 332861
 0.01 230975 237980 242980 246979 253975 264974 274974 277971
      278968 276966 272964 269965 265964 254962 244960 240961
      237963 231969
 0.25 538043 539034 539024 539013 539002 537995 533987 525979
      517975 510973 505975 498977 494977 489975 482964 477956
      473951 471944 471939 469935 466928 460918 455908 452900
      447898 442899 434902 424898 415893 412896 411903 413911
      415919 421933 426942 428949 429952 428957 427965 426969
      425975 427982 431987 432993 435997 444005 449008 454013
      463022 469029 472030 474028 477021 480026 484033 487040
      490043 493048 492053 493062 495069 497076 500085 503100
      508102 512100 515096 518090 525075 530061 534053 538043
 0.25 469679 469672 467667 465662 461658 459659 456662 455667
      454673 451682 450689 451696 452702 449706 447709 444715
      442723 440728 439733 437737 436743 442751 445753 448750
      450749 452750 456752 459754 461755 463754 464747 463742
      460732 460719 462709 463704 465697 469679
 0.25 397775 397772 396770 396769 396768 394766 392767 392769
      391771 390774 390776 391778 392779 393780 394781 394780
      395779 396777 397775 397775
 0.25 395011 397009 396007 395006 394006 394007 392009 391011
      391013 392014 392013 393013 395011 395011
 0.25 361067 360065 359064 358065 359067 360068 361067
 0.25 359865 360862 358859 355858 349859 346860 342864 341868
      341872 343877 345879 347881 350880 354877 357874 358870
      359865
 0.25 336088 336086 335085 334084 333084 332084 331086 332087
      333088 333089 335089 336088
 0.25 312913 312912 311911 310910 308910 306909 304910 302911
      301912 301914 302916 303917 304918 306918 308917 310916
      312914 312913
 0.25 303102 303099 301097 300097 298096 296096 294098 295100
      296101 297103 297104 299105 301105 302103 303102 303102
 0.25 294839 294836 294834 293834 292832 291832 289831 287831
      286832 284832 283833 284834 286835 288836 289837 290838
      292839 294839 294839
 0.25 276817 277814 275809 271806 268801 263800 255800 248802
      246807 246810 247813 252816 257819 262821 268822 272822
      275820 276817
 0.50 533037 533024 532012 529003 524996 522994 518992 515990
      515994 517004 517012 516020 514030 512040 504058 503062
      502067 504078 506086 509092 511091 514084 518073 526057
      529049 531045 533038 533037
 0.50 495026 496020 495015 491008 484992 476978 470959 467951
      466940 464932 460923 453909 450905 447903 443904 441906
      437913 436913 433910 431907 426905 419904 417910 419918
      422927 427935 430942 435947 436953 435956 433962 431968
      438982 438989 440994 446000 450003 456010 468020 478010
      481012 483015 488025 491028 495026
 0.50 462686 461683 459683 458684 460686 462687 462686
 0.50 455715 455714 453715 451716 453717 455716 455715
 0.50 273816 271812 268808 265804 262803 257802 254804 252808
      255811 258813 261815 264817 270818 273816
 1.00 475999 476995 476990 474983 471978 467974 463969 462967
      461962 460955 457953 454952 449950 443952 441958 440966
      441973 445977 447983 446990 453998 456003 460008 466011
      468008 468005 475999
 1.00 453923 453920 452918 451916 450914 449913 448912 447913
      447914 446916 446918 447920 448923 449923 450924 452925
      453923
 1.00 433933 433928 433926 432921 431918 430914 428912 426910
      423912 422914 423916 424921 425923 427926 428928 430930
      433933 433933
 1.50 472994 472993 471991 470990 469989 467989 467991 468994
      470995 472995 472994
 1.50 464003 464999 463994 462991 460989 459986 458984 457981
      453979 451981 452984 455986 455988 457993 457996 458001
      459003 461004 464003
 1.50 456964 455962 455961 454959 452958 450957 449959 448959
      447960 446961 446964 446966 446969 447970 447971 448972
      450973 452972 453971 454969 455966 456964

$$





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