Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 271859
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 28/0000 UTC THRU JUL 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...

ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR AND WITHIN VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
MONDAY...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT/CONVECTIVE
RELEASES CONTRIBUTING TO LOCAL AND/OR REGION DIFFERENCES.  RELIED
MOSTLY UPON A COMPOSITE OF THE SOMEWHAT AGREEING 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF
WITH SOME CONSIDERATION ALSO GIVEN TO THE 12Z CANADIAN/MOST RECENT
ENSEMBLE MEANS/DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS.  THIS APPROACH LEAST
CONSIDERED THE STRONGER 12Z UKMET AND 12Z GFS THAT DISPLAY SOME
SYMPTOMS OF CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK.  BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH LOWER
TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL FLOW FAVOR
PERIODIC CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY WITH PEAKS EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK INSOLATION.  MODEL FORECASTS VARY WIDELY
LIKELY DUE TO INSUFFICIENT RESOLUTION AND/OR INITIATION AND/OR
PARAMETERIZATIONS. USED A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/UKMET/00Z
ECMWF IN MOST AREAS TO PRESERVE CONTINUITY...WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE 12Z NAM AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE WHERE
THEIR SOLUTIONS WERE CONSISTENT WITH SOME ASPECTS OF THE
COARSER-GRIDDED GUIDANCE.  BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS MAY EXCEED 1.5
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE.

...SOUTHEAST...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT AND SEA BREEZES ON MONDAY RESULTING IN BASIN-AVERAGE TOTALS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES...WITH THE LOWER TOTALS REFLECTIVE
OF THE WEAKENING FRONT.  USED A COMBINATION OF
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 12Z NAM/GFS/00Z ECMWF AND SREF MEAN.

JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 511673 504657 500649 498643 493643 478637 469635 466634
      463637 454640 446642 426649 419653 410659 392671 385674
      381681 377689 374696 380700 382703 381706 379712 375720
      371729 367736 365739 365744 365749 365755 368759 371761
      374763 370767 367770 364774 361783 360787 359794 359797
      362799 366799 367802 366807 364809 357814 348822 345824
      343829 338837 333843 330851 329859 329865 331869 332874
      334878 340878 343876 345876 347877 350880 356880 359879
      361877 366869 373855 377847 382841 387838 390838 391841
      392854 399862 402860 406859 412852 419849 425855 432859
      439856 444854 446850 454830 455826 455820 453810 452804
      451800 450792 449785 448767 454760 460754 465746 469739
      473733 485720 491714 498708 506699 508694 508687 511673
 0.01 510913 510898 508894 508890 508885 506882 499878 496875
      489876 486879 483884 480897 477900 475905 476910 477912
      480912 486912 489912 492914 500917 506916 510913 510913
 0.01 464132 464129 462131 461130 459128 458125 457125 456127
      455130 456130 457133 458135 458138 460138 462136 463134
      464132 464132
 0.01 454147 453142 452136 450134 445133 441134 438134 436138
      437141 438148 440152 443150 448151 452151 454147
 0.01 450114 451102 452097 450095 447096 443094 442091 437090
      434092 430089 426089 426094 425098 423100 420102 418106
      415108 413106 412099 413092 412084 411082 409082 404085
      403082 403078 405074 409062 409058 407055 402048 400043
      403040 403037 401034 396027 392022 387016 385008 383004
      380001 377997 373995 369994 367996 364996 360992 356984
      356969 354955 353949 354944 354937 353932 352919 350914
      348914 342921 337914 335912 332912 329915 329920 330929
      326936 324938 323935 323930 319920 319906 320901 320895
      320888 321881 321867 321851 323840 328822 330814 334807
      341795 345787 349781 359766 360756 360750 357750 353752
      351755 345761 338768 331776 320793 316800 311805 306809
      303811 300810 292809 287807 284804 289797 286794 283794
      275798 271800 268799 258798 251799 249804 252810 256813
      264817 273819 275820 275823 274826 275834 280840 283842
      287842 290844 292848 295857 296868 296873 294878 290885
      287888 287894 287906 289918 291923 294927 297931 300936
      304945 312962 315979 321993 327010 331031 334041 333045
      328046 322047 317049 305048 302048 299051 291056 280057
      270055 257048 250046 242046 238047 234048 227051 230060
      236067 249078 263089 267092 270097 272100 277104 291114
      300125 302127 307128 315129 330137 331148 333152 336154
      339151 343153 348156 352157 362159 365155 369151 366148
      364146 365142 367135 371132 373134 373137 374142 375146
      373150 374154 377156 380158 383158 387160 386166 390169
      392166 394159 396154 399151 408152 411152 412148 407146
      406142 406139 404136 401134 394133 393129 394126 398123
      401125 404123 405118 410116 415116 433109 443111 448114
      450114
 0.01 386198 385192 382188 377183 372180 367177 361179 359183
      361188 365191 372195 377197 384199 386198
 0.01 352148 351146 349145 348143 346141 346140 345139 344138
      343137 342137 343140 344142 346144 346145 347147 348147
      349149 351149 352148
 0.01 348009 347002 344995 342991 339986 335981 333975 331975
      332980 333984 335991 339997 341002 344008 348009
 0.01 324160 322159 320157 318155 315154 314152 310151 307151
      306153 306156 307158 311159 313161 316162 320162 322162
      324160
 0.25 494694 493689 492685 489677 482664 477658 471653 456651
      450650 445650 437652 430657 426662 420669 411683 409689
      407697 408701 410704 413706 415711 410726 408731 405735
      403739 400740 395738 391737 388739 384743 382747 384750
      388756 391765 396773 398776 398779 395785 391789 380798
      369808 358820 342841 338848 336852 336857 338860 344858
      345855 349854 355856 361853 369842 373836 378830 385825
      391819 395815 401813 409811 411820 413824 417824 422824
      426825 430832 433835 437837 440836 443834 445827 445817
      444811 443805 441795 441783 440777 440771 444761 447756
      451751 460740 469729 479713 482708 487704 492700 494694
 0.25 396071 396061 395050 393042 386036 381031 375022 365009
      361008 357010 352018 346037 352055 356061 358066 356071
      357075 360078 368079 374083 380084 384082 396071
 0.25 370188 371186 370184 368183 367183 366182 364183 364184
      366186 368187 369187 369188 370188
 0.25 365124 363121 361121 358119 355115 353112 352109 353106
      359106 362103 368088 366085 364084 359085 352091 349093
      346092 343085 337078 334074 329071 325076 318082 313090
      309090 305087 303080 298078 294077 285074 275069 262061
      257060 251060 248063 249069 254074 261079 269084 275090
      280095 288100 304106 310110 313112 318114 322113 326109
      329106 333109 337115 340117 343122 344126 346129 350134
      356134 361130 365124
 0.25 349974 350969 349965 348961 348958 347954 346952 345947
      343945 341949 341954 342958 343962 343965 344969 345971
      346974 349974
 0.25 334791 331790 328792 326794 325797 323799 321801 320804
      320808 322810 324808 326806 327804 329801 330799 332796
      333793 334791
 0.25 318825 319823 319821 318820 316819 314822 314824 314826
      314828 314830 315832 317833 317832 318830 318828 318826
      318825
 0.25 303842 303840 303842 303843 303842
 0.25 272808 271806 270806 269806 267806 266808 267810 269810
      271809 272808
 0.50 481685 479677 478673 474667 471664 467661 461659 452656
      448655 442655 438659 435664 432669 428674 419683 417687
      416691 419695 425696 430698 429702 426705 422718 417725
      414736 411743 411751 409757 408766 407776 404782 401786
      383800 376807 368814 366819 369824 374826 379824 386818
      392809 402803 409801 413802 414808 415815 416817 419817
      424815 429814 434810 436797 438768 439762 442756 450747
      457740 463732 467727 469720 473707 481685
 0.50 391070 392066 390062 388052 390049 391044 385039 373032
      368016 366014 362013 359015 357018 356028 353038 354042
      355046 357056 362060 365062 367066 369068 372069 376069
      377064 379061 382059 386061 386065 385070 387073 391070
 0.50 361834 361830 360827 356827 355829 353832 351835 351837
      351842 352844 354846 356845 357843 359839 360836 361834
 0.50 352130 352128 351128 351130 352130
 0.50 342098 343096 342094 342093 341091 340090 339089 337088
      335088 334090 334093 334095 335095 336097 338098 340099
      341099 342098
 0.50 318101 318100 316099 315099 314099 312098 311098 309097
      307098 307100 308102 308103 310105 312105 314105 315104
      317103 318101
 0.50 286087 287083 283079 278077 273073 269070 264067 261066
      258067 257071 259073 263077 268080 274082 279085 284088
      286087
 1.00 461681 461676 459674 456669 451664 448662 443664 438670
      436676 434681 437687 441689 446687 453685 456685 459682
      461681
 1.00 463723 461720 457719 451720 447722 439727 436729 433729
      428727 425730 424732 426735 428738 428742 427745 421751
      418764 418768 418776 417781 415786 413790 414796 420806
      423806 426803 431793 434783 434768 436758 441747 456736
      460730 463725 463723
 1.00 388045 382042 375039 371038 368034 366027 364023 362023
      360025 360031 361040 366045 367050 369052 377054 384051
      388045
 1.50 450674 450672 449670 448670 447670 445670 445671 445673
      445676 446676 448676 449675 450674
 1.50 453728 453725 452725 451728 450731 452731 453730 453729
      453728
 1.50 431762 430757 428755 424755 423759 423764 424770 426779
      425783 422786 420788 418792 420799 422800 425797 428790
      431781 430772 430764 431762

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.