Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 161855
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 17/0000 UTC THRU JUL 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...SOUTHERN / SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY COULD ALLOW SOME BACKING OF THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING
FROM COASTAL AREAS OF NC/SC INTO SOUTHERN GA/AL AND PERHAPS EXTEND
SOUTH INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN MS/LA.
MEANWHILE UPSTREAM, UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND DECAYING
EASTERLY WAVE COULD FUEL SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALONG COASTAL TX
INTO SOUTH TX BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. OVERALL
WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF/GFS AND
INTERNAL PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, BASICALLY
AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES
WITHIN WELL ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. THIS POTENTIALLY INCLUDES ILM TO
CHS TO SAV TO ABY.

...SOUTHWEST U.S....

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS AZ AND PARTS OF THE DESERT
SW WILL LIKELY FUEL ANOTHER BATCH OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AS A RESULT, WPC HAS
A SLIGHT THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF AZ
AND MESHES WELL WITH LOCAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. GFS AND ECMWF
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR PWS RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 3 TIMES ABOVE AVG
AND THIS IS THROUGH TUES EVENING. THERE IS NO REAL UPPER
DISTURBANCE OR VORT THAT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER THESE RAINS, THUS A
SIMILAR APPROACH FROM YESTERDAY OF CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND SERN TERRAIN WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND PROPAGATE
SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD PHX AND TUS. THIS SCENARIO PROVIDED A RECORD
RAIN FOR TUS YESTERDAY. WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE EARLY ON WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS BUT CURTAILED THE
HI-RES INVOLVEMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS...

A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN/SERN ID THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST SWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND
STREAK ACROSS SERN MT/NORTHERN WY TO ND AND NORTH OF THE BORDER.
MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
OCCURRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS ND INTO NORTHERN MN.
MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH... A VERY PESKY AND SLOW MOVING VORT NEAR
EASTERN/NERN CO WILL FINALLY FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLIES
AND SLIDE NORTH AND EAST INTO NE, WHILE SHEAR LINE EXTENDS SOUTH
AND WEST INTO WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. WPC ATTEMPTED
TO DEPICT AN INITIAL FLARE UP OF CONVECTIVE RAINS, THEN A DECAYING
PERIOD AND FINALLY ANOTHER BUILD UP TOMORROW AFTN. THE HI-RES
SUITE INCLUDING THE NAM CONEST, ARW AND NMMB REALLY DEPICTS SUCH A
SCENARIO BUT WITH LARGER QPF AMOUNTS.

...NORTHEAST INTO OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MON. THE MAIN CORRIDOR WILL
BE OVER UPSTATE/CENTRAL NY STATE INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA WITH LESS
FOCUS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE OH VALLEY AND DOWN THE APPALACHIAN
SPINE. SPEAKING OF THE LATTER, SOME OF THESE STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL PA INTO EASTERN WV/NWRN VA COULD SPREAD DOWN THE
TERRAIN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE NRN MID-ATL REGION.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

MUSHER

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 537210 538204 537199 535190 532181 530175 525173 523173
      517177 515179 513184 515188 518189 521192 523195 524206
      525211 527213 529216 533218 535215 537210 537210
 0.01 517936 515923 514914 511908 506908 503906 503903 502898
      498892 496885 494884 487891 482897 478900 475904 471911
      467919 460935 459940 458946 459953 459958 460964 457968
      452976 448981 443983 434987 429989 424986 421982 416980
      414979 411979 406981 400986 393991 385997 379997 375994
      371994 369996 366996 363994 358994 356994 353991 345988
      334987 328990 325993 320994 317996 315001 314004 313007
      310009 312999 312992 311986 312982 313980 317978 319973
      324971 332958 325954 323951 324948 329947 332941 334932
      334927 336923 337918 336913 337907 338903 343895 352877
      351870 352863 356855 356850 354846 355842 357837 361827
      366819 382811 386812 389815 392820 391824 386829 383832
      382836 380846 377853 370877 368881 367887 367888 368895
      369911 383918 386930 387931 391932 394934 398943 407947
      410952 414949 412947 411946 413943 417942 417938 414936
      410931 400913 401908 402898 405888 405881 406876 410866
      411858 414855 418858 420862 424862 428860 434854 436852
      432848 430848 427850 425852 424850 421847 418846 417843
      418840 419837 422835 424833 426829 427822 430817 437809
      449792 451788 455785 459783 462779 470771 473761 476750
      477739 482716 483705 485697 480678 477672 474667 472662
      468666 464669 458670 456670 454677 452683 449688 446692
      442695 437702 434706 433710 422722 414727 412736 404740
      395742 390752 382750 378741 378739 376733 372727 367718
      363717 356718 352721 351724 345734 335749 325764 316780
      311787 308794 305800 303804 303808 300811 297809 286804
      286801 282798 279795 274793 263791 258790 253790 244794
      241801 239806 240812 243820 245826 247828 255830 263833
      270837 277840 282844 281849 281855 281863
 0.01 281863 282881 283890 283898 282905 281911 278924 276936
      271944 259958 255962 252969 254976 253982 252989 249993
      247999 247003 248005 265017 270018 274020 280020 283018
      289030 291033 289035 288039 288047 286053 275055 268056
      264057 258057 255059 252063 250069 250073 252075 285107
      291114 298122 304129 312135 322142 326143 331145 336148
      341146 344147 347150 352155 360150 360156 363159 367157
      371157 376154 380154 382152 386152 388151 395153 399155
      401153 402148 404146 404142 401138 397136 395137 394135
      392132 390131 388129 389125 394124 398127 406126 410120
      413120 416119 420119 421123 420128 419130 418140 419143
      421143 430140 427130 427121 426114 428109 430107 432109
      435109 439105 441103 443106 443117 442122 444125 443130
      441132 437138 435144 436150 440152 450158 454159 457157
      457154 459150 460142 462138 461131 459124 459120 463119
      466115 468108 473094 474085 479087 481087 482082 483073
      483065 481062 479063 479059 480054 482048 485045 493036
      500026 506017 512004 515992 514986 513979 510974 509971
      510968 513955 517936
 0.01 453042 452040 450040 448039 447041 448043 450043 451043
      453042
 0.01 447082 444078 441077 439079 436079 430078 427080 424077
      423081 426086 432086 435085 440085 444084 447082
 0.01 444065 444060 445058 441053 435059 432056 429054 427058
      421058 418060 418062 415069 412073 406075 399083 398094
      399098 402099 405090 409090 411087 417075 421069 424072
      429068 435068 444065
 0.01 428871 428869 424869 423872 421872 418874 416872 414872
      412875 414877 416879 418879 421881 425879 426876 427874
      428871
 0.01 420097 420095 419095 418097 420098 420097
 0.01 421027 419025 418026 416027 417029 419029 421027
 0.01 400046 400044 401042 401039 401037 400036 398036 397037
      396038 395039 394041 393043 394045 394046 394048 395050
      395051 396050 397050 399048 400046
 0.01 391102 390098 390096 392093 391089 389092 387094 385096
      383099 384102 383104 381106 382108 385111 387107 389104
      391102
 0.01 387038 387036 386033 384032 382033 381033 382035 384036
      385038 387038
 0.01 378110 379105 375103 374102 370100 371097 369097 368101
      370104 370106 370111 368113 371115 373111 373109 375109
      377111 378110
 0.01 371142 371140 370139 369140 368141 366141 364139 363138
      362139 361141 362142 364143 366143 368144 369143 371142
 0.01 343171 344167 345162 344159 343155 342153 339152 337152
      335154 333156 331158 329159 329162 330166 332167 335169
      338170 340171 343171
 0.01 345142 344141 343141 341141 340142 340144 340146 342144
      344144 345142
 0.01 350068 348067 344066 342065 339064 337065 335069 333071
      333073 334074 336072 338071 342069 344070 346071 349070
      350068
 0.01 350046 347044 347041 346039 346035 344033 343035 342037
      340039 338041 337043 335045 336047 338048 340047 342049
      343050 346050 348048 350046
 0.01 351029 351026 351024 350022 348021 347020 345020 345019
      343019 342019 341020 340021 340023 340026 341027 343028
      344030 345030 344033 346035 347033 348032 350031 350030
      351029
 0.01 299031 300029 299027 297029 296031 297033 299033 299031
 0.25 498018 495017 491019 486019 483015 481012 477012 475016
      473021 474027 478026 483026 488027 492025 495023 498019
      498018
 0.25 491954 492944 489937 487932 484925 480924 476929 475937
      474942 475947 477954 481957 486962 489960 490957 491954
 0.25 471698 471695 469691 466691 462682 458689 454694 448702
      450705 450710 446712 442713 442717 440720 435722 433725
      427731 424738 420743 415752 411758 404762 401765 400767
      395774 389780 385781 381786 379791 382795 385795 388793
      393789 397784 401781 406779 414779 419779 424784 428786
      431783 434780 436781 439784 442784 448781 454775 457768
      460758 462751 462745 464740 466731 469714 469704 471698
 0.25 476979 477977 476974 474973 472974 471977 470978 470979
      469981 469984 470986 472986 473984 474984 475982 475980
      476979
 0.25 429791 428787 426787 424790 422794 418795 412798 411802
      412807 412814 410819 409822 407826 408829 412828 413826
      417818 419811 421806 424805 427801 427798 429791
 0.25 419001 419996 418993 416990 414990 407991 401992 396995
      396000 395004 393006 389009 387011 384011 381011 378012
      374018 375025 379030 384027 390030 393031 395030 401027
      404023 406019 408017 407016 406014 406010 411008 416005
      419001
 0.25 404829 403827 401826 399827 399828 398830 399832 400832
      401832 403832 404829
 0.25 401857 402850 401843 398840 395842 393847 392853 394859
      396865 397869 400873 401870 401867 401860 401857
 0.25 391908 392906 391904 390902 389902 388904 387906 387909
      387911 389912 390911 391910 391908
 0.25 389893 388891 388890 386890 386893 386895 387896 388895
      388894 389893
 0.25 380080 380071 381067 378066 372064 368060 362061 362058
      368057 372053 368050 362052 355052 350053 349057 351060
      355064 354069 352075 353078 355077 356073 358073 362072
      363069 369068 373070 373074 375080 378082 380080
 0.25 373756 372744 369738 366735 358733 353735 349738 339752
      334758 329765 323774 319783 315792 312802 307809 304812
      300814 294814 292813 284810 279807 276803 269796 265796
      261798 256799 254804 254808 256812 257820 257824 261827
      267831 270826 280825 286830 293830 295830 295833 294837
      292842 289849 287855 287859 289868 291882 292889 290894
      288899 287903 287918 286928 286940 285946 282949 278956
      275958 269961 264962 260964 258969 260974 262981 266984
      271984 274982 277982 280974 285970 285974 287975 291972
      293973 292977 289980 287991 290993 293993 296991 296000
      298004 301003 303999 304995 304992 302989 301986 303980
      307970 310959 314949 316928 319917 321908 322902 325902
      328898 329891 330886 331881 334870 335865 338862 342856
      344844 345839 348835 351833 353827 349824 350821 350816
      350809 351803 354799 364784 360782 362778 365771 370763
      373756
 0.25 358120 354115 349111 346105 345101 342092 339087 335082
      330080 329083 327082 323078 315071 302069 290065 281065
      275067 266072 266077 268080 272084 280091 291099 294103
      296109 303119 308123 313126 326131 331131 335126 340122
      343126 348129 352130 355129 356124 358120
 0.25 293956 293954 292953 291954 291956 292958 293956
 0.50 455742 453739 450738 445735 442734 438736 433738 427742
      424744 424748 421754 416758 406766 408768 407769 407771
      410770 416767 420768 426770 429767 434765 438760 441758
      443755 445752 449753 452750 454747 455742
 0.50 451772 451770 450768 449769 447770 447771 445773 445776
      446777 448776 449775 451773 451772
 0.50 446727 445725 444724 442724 440725 439726 439727 439729
      441731 443731 444730 444729 446727
 0.50 419799 418799 416799 416800 418800 419799
 0.50 415001 416996 413994 412993 408993 406993 403994 400995
      401999 403000 405003 408005 411003 413002 415001
 0.50 401018 399014 396014 392014 386014 381015 379017 377021
      379024 378028 380029 384025 389026 395027 398023 400019
      401018
 0.50 368746 367742 364740 360739 355740 351742 349744 345750
      330770 323784 317797 312811 308815 303818 286816 282817
      280818 281821 286822 293822 298826 301830 300834 298836
      294843 292846 293849 291852 291856 291863 297891 297902
      297911 292912 293924 291931 292936 292940 294941 298939
      297935 295932 296923 297915 298926 301932 304937 305936
      305932 303926 303923 305919 307915 311915 313914 310911
      307911 304908 304906 308903 311901 313897 306895 305892
      307888 316887 318888 320886 319878 321870 323869 327869
      331863 333857 336858 337855 334852 334848 336841 336837
      333834 332826 333820 337813 338806 345792 350788 352785
      354780 358768 366759 369756 368750 368746
 0.50 367063 366063 364062 362062 361063 360063 359063 357065
      357067 358069 359069 360069 362067 364065 366064 367063
 0.50 362056 361055 359055 357055 356056 356058 357058 358058
      359057 361056 362056
 0.50 354120 355117 354117 353116 351117 351119 352121 354120
      354120
 0.50 348112 342102 342095 339094 337095 325096 319089 317084
      313079 309076 303075 291071 284070 280072 274075 272078
      275082 279085 296098 300109 303113 307117 315124 322126
      325126 328124 327118 330114 334112 338107 339109 338111
      336115 337117 340118 345115 348112
 0.50 346811 347809 346807 346805 345804 344803 343802 343803
      342805 343807 344809 346811 346812 346811
 0.50 304850 304848 304846 303844 302842 302840 301838 300840
      299842 298844 298847 300848 300849 302850 303851 304850
 0.50 301975 301973 301972 299972 299973 298975 297977 299979
      300977 301975 301975
 0.50 294901 294899 293898 291898 291899 291902 291904 291906
      291908 292906 292904 293902 294901
 0.50 292989 292988 290989 292989 292989
 0.50 291962 290960 288958 288957 288956 288954 287952 285952
      283954 282956 281958 283959 285959 286958 287958 288958
      288960 288962 290963 291962
 0.50 278817 277811 275809 271807 268804 265800 262801 257802
      256805 257807 260811 262814 265817 268818 272820 275819
      278817
 1.00 395023 395020 393020 392020 391020 390022 391024 392025
      393025 395023 395023
 1.00 387022 386020 384019 383019 382020 382022 382023 384023
      386023 387022
 1.00 364753 361746 357746 355748 351754 350759 343762 339767
      333776 325787 321798 317811 318817 317824 313825 311823
      310826 310831 312837 310841 310846 312848 317852 319851
      319846 323844 330840 329835 324831 320832 318831 318827
      319824 321821 325818 328813 331811 332807 331805 332802
      335797 337792 341786 345781 349777 351771 354766 358760
      363757 364753
 1.00 329112 328106 327100 323104 321107 321110 320113 319109
      320105 319104 317101 318097 320094 315090 314085 310085
      308088 310091 313092 312094 309096 304101 303105 306110
      309113 313114 315117 319119 323120 325117 327112 329112
 1.00 316871 316868 315866 315864 315862 314860 313858 312860
      312862 312864 312867 311869 311871 312872 312873 313875
      313877 314879 315877 315875 316873 316872 316871
 1.00 305083 303082 302082 303083 305083 305083
 1.00 271812 269812 269813 271812 271812
 1.50 360756 361754 360753 359754 358754 357756 356757 357757
      359757 360756 360756
 1.50 351767 350764 347766 343768 342770 337778 333783 327787
      325795 324798 327800 332796 335789 340782 344776 348776
      351767 351767
 1.50 326111 327109 326107 325107 324106 323108 323111 323113
      324114 324113 326111 326111
 1.50 327809 326807 324807 323808 322809 321810 321811 320812
      319815 319817 319819 319820 321819 321818 323816 324814
      326812 326811 327809
 1.50 326840 327837 326837 324836 322836 321836 323837 323838
      325839 326840 326840
 1.50 318106 317104 316103 314102 312101 310101 309102 308103
      306104 307106 308107 309109 310109 311109 312109 313109
      315109 317108 317107 318106
 1.50 315830 315828 315827 313828 312828 312830 313832 313833
      315832 315830
 2.00 332791 332789 332787 331787 330787 329788 328790 327790
      327792 326794 326797 328797 330796 331794 332793 332791

$$





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