Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 280700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 28/1200 UTC THRU JUL 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...

BROAD SCALE AND DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BE ABLE TO WORK WITH A MOIST AIRMASS FROM NY INTO NEW ENGLAND.  AN
ATTENDING BROAD SHIELD OF MDT TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WAS WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SOME MODELS LIKE THE NAM PERHAPS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION FEEDBACK PROBLEMS.  EVEN SO...AMOUNTS FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE IDEA OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN
IN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUE.  WPC
MANUAL GRAPHICS FOLLOWED THIS IDEA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW YOUR TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL FLOW FAVOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH CONTINUES
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  WHILE THE
MODELS STILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLNS...THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO BE BEST SITUATED
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SINCE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IS DIRECTED RIGHT INTO THE AREA WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  ELEVATED CONVECTION
EXTENDING OUT OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF...WITH THE MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY.  TENDED TO USE THE 28/12Z 27 KM ECMWF...00Z GFS AND THE
ARW FOR PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN AMOUNTS AND MAXES. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

...SOUTHEAST...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT AND SEA BREEZES ON MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN BASIN-AVERAGE
TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. GIVEN MODEST SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY USED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD VALUE OF THE NCEP
MODELS AND THE 27 KM ECMWF.

BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 524706 524701 522697 518688 512668 508661 504652 500645
      497642 494642 489638 482636 474634 467634 460635 453636
      445635 438635 421642 415648 411654 409657 405661 398665
      385673 376685 373692 371702 372706 374710 376712 378710
      388707 395706 401709 405712 406718 408743 402758 402762
      402769 401773 398777 390788 379800 374806 369811 364816
      364821 363825 365827 369829 371831 374830 376827 380828
      383829 384834 384838 385842 390845 402848 408852 412852
      416850 419848 420843 419839 417836 414833 414827 415822
      418818 428810 438798 444791 444785 443778 444772 448766
      458756 468744 472742 475739 482735 488731 495731 504729
      512726 517723 520721 521718 524712 524706
 0.01 514900 513894 512891 508885 499878 488873 482871 476875
      473880 468883 466886 466892 465900 465905 467908 470908
      472905 474905 475908 476911 482912 490912 495915 497917
      501917 508916 510913 510909 510903 513901 514900
 0.01 464132 464129 462131 461130 459128 458125 457125 456127
      455130 456130 457133 458135 458138 460138 462136 463134
      464132 464132
 0.01 454147 453142 452136 450134 445133 441134 438134 436138
      437141 438148 440152 443150 448151 452151 454147
 0.01 454112 455106 454101 454095 449094 445095 442091 437090
      434092 430089 427088 425089 425094 427096 423100 420102
      418105 417108 414107 412103 412097 413091 413085 411082
      403085 403079 405074 411067 414064 412061 410060 410057
      413054 410045 407037 401031 399025 396022 389017 385006
      377002 362994 357987 352977 346963 340943 336933 334930
      330930 327932 326930 325924 323914 322909 322902 322890
      321879 321866 321851 323840 328821 331812 335806 340797
      343793 347790 352785 356777 363760 366751 367739 368730
      364725 365719 366714 365708 364703 361704 358709 355712
      350719 338735 320761 315768 310774 300789 295796 290805
      288807 285806 282804 274801 266799 257798 252799 250802
      250808 252810 261815 270817 276822 274825 274832 278840
      277849 277874 278887 281898 284908 287916 290924 297931
      306950 310958 312967 315975 317984 323000 320005 321007
      325017 320047 316049 310049 303047 296054 289057 278056
      272055 268053 261050 253047 244046 237048 232050 231055
      231061 233064 238072 240076 245078 252082 260087 273096
      284099 289104 296110 304116 308119 313119 316119 319121
      324126 327130 330132 332134 332137 331144 334154 337153
      340151 348156 355155 364161 366162 367164 371165 377167
      379167 380163 383160 386163 387167 389169 396166 400157
      403154 407153 410162 412165 416165 419162 420158 419146
      416144 414145 412144 410142 409138 407138 398142 394139
      391136 387134 385135 381134 381129 387125 389123 394122
      402119 411116 415116 418113 424113 428111 432110 438111
      444112 448115 452115 454112
 0.01 450078 445070 443067 442062 438045 440043 444041 447039
      447036 444032 442031 440032 438031 437028 434017 432014
      429011 425015 428023 427036 425039 422041 420045 419052
      420056 419060 422069 427075 429078 432076 435074 439074
      443075 445077 450078
 0.01 387198 386191 385189 382186 379182 377180 374179 369178
      365177 359179 359183 360185 363190 368193 373196 380199
      384200 387198
 0.01 364152 366146 360143 355142 351141 346139 343136 340135
      343140 344142 347147 351150 354153 358151 361153 364152
 0.25 508695 508686 506680 503673 499669 492665 487663 484659
      481655 477651 473649 468648 449647 444646 438648 429655
      422663 420668 417672 412682 411688 412694 416698 420700
      425700 427703 424708 422714 418726 419741 417755 417760
      417769 415774 412779 408789 396792 389799 392803 399804
      404800 407796 409794 412794 416796 421799 424798 427796
      433788 440765 447756 455748 461741 469733 473730 477727
      488725 494723 499721 502716 504712 508695
 0.25 409105 409103 408100 408099 406100 406102 406105 405107
      407109 408107 409105 409105
 0.25 402058 394044 388041 386038 389034 391031 389027 383021
      372012 365007 358005 354005 352007 351011 350015 349020
      344020 338019 335022 334027 332034 332037 335040 337049
      332056 329062 325068 323072 325076 326080 328083 332088
      335090 334093 336097 339098 342098 341094 340090 339085
      344083 348083 349086 354088 356091 362094 366096 369092
      375088 380092 384094 387093 383087 381086 382084 386083
      392080 394077 395071 396065 398062 402058
 0.25 395103 396101 395099 394097 393098 392100 392103 393104
      395103 395103
 0.25 380194 377193 375191 375188 373186 370183 366183 364184
      366186 367188 370190 372192 375193 377194 380194
 0.25 388118 388116 387114 385114 383113 382113 380114 379114
      378116 377119 376121 377122 379123 380121 381121 383121
      384121 386120 388118
 0.25 382110 382108 380107 380108 380109 381110 382111 382110
 0.25 369099 369098 367099 366101 366102 368101 369099
 0.25 364135 364127 363124 360123 354120 349114 344108 342106
      339108 337109 341111 342113 345122 348129 354132 361136
      364135
 0.25 365106 366103 365102 363101 361101 359103 358105 359105
      361107 362106 364106 365106
 0.25 356761 356754 355747 352742 349738 345739 342741 335747
      329755 324763 317781 308797 303804 300809 300815 299820
      297825 295830 296837 298847 304855 306861 306866 308874
      308880 306891 302900 301905 302912 306922 313941 316944
      318943 319940 319928 318917 315905 314879 313867 315856
      316843 319833 321822 322817 324812 328804 334796 338788
      340784 343781 348777 352771 356761
 0.25 346068 344067 342066 341066 340067 340068 342069 342070
      344070 346069 346068
 0.25 318071 317068 312067 305066 296066 288068 279068 271065
      263062 260061 255061 245059 240062 243066 246068 252072
      258077 264082 277090 285093 292092 300090 303089 306085
      306078 313074 318073 318071
 0.50 502687 500676 493673 487671 481667 475661 469657 463655
      455655 448653 444652 439655 435662 432670 431679 432689
      432699 429707 427711 428718 423725 422730 422734 425744
      426756 428761 428767 425776 421782 419785 419790 422793
      427792 432787 434782 434778 435767 436761 439758 450748
      463736 473725 491718 494716 495712 499705 502700 503695
      502687
 0.50 393071 393065 391062 389061 386062 385070 383070 382067
      379064 375062 370059 369062 369067 373068 374072 372080
      376081 379079 382076 385075 389075 392073 393071
 0.50 394050 392047 388045 385042 383038 382032 378030 376026
      375021 370014 366012 361012 358014 356018 353027 349026
      345024 341023 340028 350042 352046 352053 348056 345058
      344062 346064 348063 350065 353064 367054 376056 379058
      384059 390055 394050
 0.50 361132 360129 359126 355126 352125 350122 349119 346121
      347123 348125 350128 353129 356130 358131 361132
 0.50 358085 357084 355083 354083 352083 351084 352084 354085
      355085 357085 358085
 0.50 350749 350746 348744 343747 340751 336756 333761 331768
      336771 342771 347768 350763 352760 351755 350749
 0.50 334079 332078 331078 329079 328079 329079 330081 332081
      334079
 0.50 314809 314807 314805 313804 312805 311806 310807 309809
      309812 310812 311813 312814 312813 313811 313810 314809
 0.50 301082 299078 294078 289077 285076 278071 269068 264066
      259067 257071 259075 266080 275083 279085 284085 292083
      299084 301082
 1.00 485704 483693 480690 476692 468690 462687 455688 452694
      447694 445697 443701 439703 436705 434709 433714 433719
      431723 428726 427729 429732 429735 428740 432747 434750
      439749 446744 459735 464729 469721 476717 482712 485704
 1.00 456672 456668 454666 452664 450662 447661 444662 443665
      442669 441672 442677 443680 445682 449682 452680 454678
      456675 456672
 1.00 430778 431776 430774 430773 430774 428776 428779 427781
      427783 429782 429781 430779 430778
 1.00 376046 375039 371032 370023 367020 363020 359027 355032
      353038 354043 356045 359053 362050 365048 372048 376046
 1.50 478704 469699 461693 457697 454703 450708 446711 442716
      440723 438729 436736 439738 442739 443735 453733 458730
      462725 464719 469716 474713 477707 478704
 1.50 373044 372041 370039 368037 366035 362034 359035 357038
      358041 360043 363045 365046 367045 371046 373044
 2.00 473708 471706 469705 466704 464703 463700 460700 458702
      458707 459709 461711 465712 467712 470711 472711 473708
 2.00 453725 454723 452722 451723 449724 450726 451726 453726
      453725
 2.00 371044 371043 370041 369040 367040 366040 364041 363043
      364043 365044 367044 368043 369042 370043 371044 371044

$$




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