Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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139
FXUS04 KWBC 180900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 18/1200 UTC THRU NOV 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

FOR THE 12Z QPF ISSUANCE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. THE
MOST RECENT NBM/06Z REGIONAL GEM WERE UTILIZED TO REFINE THE QPF
OVER THE OH VALLEY...MAINLY BETWEEN 18/18Z AND 19/00Z.


...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST...

A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES EARLY ON DAY 1 CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...WHILE
TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD FEED MAINLY ELEVATED
CONVECTION TO PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHILE
THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM...THERE WERE SOME PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE MAXIMUM QPF AXIS. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/NBM/12Z ECMWF...AS THESE SOLUTIONS WERE
SIMILAR WITH THE MAXIMUM QPF PLACEMENT.

EARLY IN IN THE PERIOD...ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A BROAD AIR OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE AS THE INSTABILITY ERODES IN A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NY/WESTERN PA IN WV.
STILL...LOCAL 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS BEFORE 15Z.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR QPF WILL BE AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING
LONG WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT)...A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW PUMPS 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND
THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) INTO TN/KY/IN/OH BETWEEN
18/18Z AND 19/00Z. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
AUGMENTED BY DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 130 KNOT
JET MOVING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY DURING THE
SAME TIME PERIOD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THESE AREAS GENERALLY SHOWED 250-500 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT (WITH THE 00Z NAM INDICATING THE
HIGHER END OF THE RANGE). THIS MUCH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FEED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL
IL ACROSS NORTHERN IN INTO NORTHERN OH/WESTERN PA. THERE IS SOME
MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMUM QPF WITH THE
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...AND THIS IS TIED AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE
TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY. THE 00Z HREF
MEAN SHOWED THE BEST INSTABILITY GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
GLOBAL/REGIONAL MODELS...AND THE WPC QPF AXIS OF 1.75 TO 2.25
INCHES WAS STRETCHED OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS...WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIE.

THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF OH/WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN WV. SOME
HIGH RESOLUTIONS (MOST NOTABLY THE 00Z NAM CONEST) HAD 3.00+
INCHES OF QPF IN THESE AREAS...SO THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THE THREAT...HOWEVER...IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AVAILABILITY OF
INSTABILITY... WHICH LOOKS AS THOUGH IT COULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR.

FURTHER EAST...MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY STATE INTO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES BETWEEN 19/06Z AND 19/12Z...WITH 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF QPF EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PA INTO NORTHERN NY AND THE
NYC METRO AREA.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A FAST MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF A TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA
FUNNELS DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING DAY 1. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
TRANSPORTS THE EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WA AND FAR NORTHERN ID...RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MID LEVEL SYSTEM...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A MULTI MODEL
BLEND...LED BY THE 00Z NAM/00Z NBM.

WHILE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING VANCOUVER ISLAND AND BRITISH COLUMBIA STAYS NORTH
OF THE BORDER...A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 0.75
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WA OLYMPIC
RANGE...MAINLY AFTER 19/00Z. THE UPSLOPE FLOW...COMBINED WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FAST MID LEVEL FLOW...WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OLYMPICS.




DAY 2/3...

WPC QPF WAS BASED ON AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF.


...WEST COAST...

AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTH BRITISH
COLUMBIA DIRECTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER INTO WESTERN WA THROUGH
SUNDAY. PW NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ONE INCH (1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL) WILL COME ASHORE AT THE HEAD OF THIS ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON DAY 2 (12Z SUN-12Z MON) MAINTAINED WITH
CONSIDERATION FOR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE OLYMPICS.

A STRONGER LOBE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ENTERS NORTHERN CA MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
ZONAL FLOW IS ENHANCED TO THE SOUTH. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
ENTERS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST WITH A SWATH OF 1.5 INCH PW (3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) IN CA NORTH FROM THE SF BAY.
MODERATE PRECIP EXTENDS EAST ACROSS OR/ID MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE MOST ENHANCED RAIN ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER. ONE
KEY LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE NOTABLE RAINFALL EVENT IS THE LOW
LEVEL LOW BACKS SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY. A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS ADDED FOR THIS AREA FOR DAY 3 (12Z MON-12Z
TUE).


...NORTHEAST...

LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY
MORNING...LIFTING NORTH OF MAINE BY SUNDAY EVENING. 1 TO 1.25 INCH
PW (2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AHEAD OF THIS LOW/UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-70KT. INSTABILITY WILL
HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED OFF THE COAST AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL KEEP RAINFALL AREAL AVERAGES
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF MAINE THAT
MAY REACH ONE INCH ON AVERAGE.


JACKSON/HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML



24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 468332 470327 473322 476318 478315 481311 484307 487305
      491305 495305 499304 503302 505300 508298 512295 525257
      527248 529241 531234 533224 535217 537209 539204 540194
      540186 537180 530170 525162 517156 511154 505151 502150
      498147 493137 490133 484132 481132 478130 474127 471126
      470131 471134 475137 480138 486148 494155 493157 489157
      483155 480154 479157 481163 486172 491175 491183 494187
      500187 504186 507190 509194 512199 510206 505209 501210
      496207 488203 483204 479205 476209 473214 477219 482222
      486226 486230 484231 477224 473226 469230 464242 458249
      452260 446270 440283 438288 435293 429301 416311
 0.01 554053 555046 554041 553037 551034 548025 546021 546014
      541015 537008 535999 533991 528984 523983 521988 521995
      521001 522004 524013 528021 534037 538044 540051 544060
      546063 548062 554053
 0.01 529745 528738 527732 526728 524720 521711 520707 516704
      498675 495668 490663 487658 482653 471643 466640 461635
      453633 446635 442636 438636 435637 430641 427642 424645
      419652 413658 409666 405672 404674 400676 389684 370708
      359718 348729 337741 327753 324761 320767 317772 315777
      316779 308782 304786 300791 300795 301799 308803 316803
      320802 323799 330794 332792 336793 336798 334802 328809
      323814 320816 316817 312816 313811 309811 306818 287839
      278851 274857 271865 265878 258895 247923 243936 235949
      233957 232963 232973 235983 238990 242992 246992 249990
      252988 254980 258976 263972 267967 271962 278948 280941
      285935 295922 301918 303916 305915 306918 311922 314924
      317922 332916 345909 351906 353904 356905 356907 357910
      359913 367916 371919 375925 376931 376937 378945 382955
      386961 391966 396966 399964 409952 414945 418938 421933
      424926 429911 432902 435895 442878 443874 445870 449868
      453867 457867 460871 462875 461881 459886 459892 462901
      464905 466905 468903 472898 479886 482881 485874 486869
      485867 481859 471848 466843 464841 466836 469827 470823
      471820 473818 478817 481815 485814 488811 492810 494808
      497807 501803 504801 508800 510797 514796 518779 521773
      524765 527754 529745
 0.01 496949 495944 494937 491929 486921 482909 480906 477904
      475908 474915 477922 480932 484942 487950 491953 494952
      496949
 0.01 459835 458832 457830 456832 455833 454835 454838 456839
      457837 459835
 0.01 284802 279798 274798 269796 262795 258795 253798 255802
      261801 268798 272802 278805 282804 284802
 0.25 458327 462321 466315 473306 480296 484292 488290 500291
      505291 509288 513284 517277 519271 521264 521255 519248
      513237 507226 500216 493214 489216 488221 489229 488234
      486235 484236 481234 479232 476232 473236 472246 473253
      472262 470268 464283 459295 453309 447320 446322
 0.25 532205 533199 533193 529186 526179 524175 521173 518172
      515172 509169 506169 504171 504176 505179 509186 515192
      519197 523203 527206 531206 532205
 0.25 502754 501750 499745 494738 489734 480731 469726 463725
      460723 459716 459710 460706 464698 464687 464680 461674
      455660 452656 449655 446655 443657 438664 433670 428677
      425687 419701 413715 409721 404729 400736 397744 392761
      392780 389788 384793 381796 376796 370803 365808 360813
      355817 351823 347831 344840 343848 343854 344858 348864
      349871 349881 351884 356884 370882 379882 384883 386886
      391903 392924 394929 397929 405927 410922 415914 418907
      420897 424881 427873 431865 437847 439841 441837 444834
      448829 452821 475798 484788 489781 492774 499763 502754
 0.25 375721 372721 369723 367724 364726 363729 362731 360734
      361736 363734 365732 367730 370728 371727 374724 375721
 0.25 334776 333774 332776 330778 328779 326781 323784 321784
      320787 320789 324788 326787 329786 331784 332781 333778
      334776
 0.50 519268 519260 517252 513242 507231 500222 498220 495219
      493220 491224 491237 485238 483240 480240 477238 477243
      477252 475260 472272 461298 459305 457309 457314 459315
      464312 471302 477291 480286 484282 488281 492282 497284
      502285 507285 511283 515275 519268
 0.50 520186 519185 517183 517182 516181 514180 513180 511180
      511181 510183 511184 512186 512187 514188 515188 517188
      519186 520186
 0.50 482771 481766 480763 476757 473751 468749 461748 456749
      450749 448749 447744 446739 445736 440733 439727 441718
      446715 449709 448692 446688 444686 440689 437694 435702
      434709 431715 427717 422718 417722 415724 411725 408730
      407738 403742 401748 396759 396764 396768 397779 396785
      392790 384799 378807 378812 380814 385816 392817 397820
      397827 396835 395840 392847 390862 391873 392880 395894
      396910 398914 402915 406910 413897 417885 421872 423866
      423856 423848 426840 429834 432830 436826 441823 472786
      479779 482771
 0.50 370826 369822 368820 364819 361821 358824 354828 351833
      349840 350844 352846 354848 358847 363844 366839 367832
      370826
 1.00 514272 516266 515262 514253 512245 509240 504234 500229
      495225 493231 494240 498247 499250 495244 489241 485243
      482248 483254 483263 483267 485270 491273 504281 510277
      514272 514272
 1.00 430788 426784 421781 414772 409770 407774 405781 402785
      386802 387804 391805 398802 401802 403804 403808 403826
      403832 401839 400846 400856 398869 399886 400890 403891
      408888 411874 412866 413860 417828 418821 421815 425803
      430788
 1.00 409758 409755 407752 406750 403750 402753 402757 401760
      401764 401766 403769 405769 406768 409766 409761 409758
 1.00 356837 356835 355834 354835 354837 355838 356837
 1.50 513269 513260 512252 510246 507241 503236 499232 497231
      495234 497241 500246 502254 497251 493246 488243 485248
      487262 488265 492268 496272 501276 503277 505275 509269
      513269
 1.50 420799 420794 417791 414784 411784 408787 405792 408799
      408808 406818 406827 403846 402856 402861 402866 403872
      405873 407864 409856 411847 414830 416820 417811 419804
      420799
 2.00 512263 512255 511251 508246 506242 503239 499235 497238
      500243 502246 504251 505255 507261 510263 512263
 2.00 504273 506266 504260 501257 498254 496251 492248 488246
      487250 488256 489261 492265 495269 497271 502275 504273
 2.00 413823 413821 413819 413816 412816 411815 410817 410819
      409821 409822 409824 409826 410829 410828 412828 412826
      413824 413823
 2.00 409843 409840 409838 409836 408838 407839 406841 407843
      409843 409843
 3.00 503270 503268 502263 501260 500258 497255 495252 494251
      491250 489252 490256 491259 492262 494264 496267 498269
      501271 503270
 4.00 500261 499260 498258 498257 496256 495254 494253 492251
      491253 491255 491257 492258 493259 493261 494262 495264
      497264 498263 499262 500261
 5.00 495259 494259 494256 493255 493256 493257 494259 495259

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 499324 494322 490323 486321 482319 479316 478313 475314
      471314 468315 464317 460317 455314 452315 448317 444318
      441320
 0.01 565057 561048 553039 549034 545032 539032 539043 538053
      539059 539067 540077 540084 538088 536096 534104 535109
      530111 529118 530134 527138 524134 522131 519130 517132
      514131 507135 502139 497136 489127 485122 480122 475123
      471125 467129 463133 460133 457136 454141 451147 448150
      445152 442151 438152 435156 434166 433200 430205 426203
      420201 415203 409205 402204 389201 372186 365184 362184
      360185 361190 364195 369203 372209 372216 374246 373253
      376256 381260 383262 382264 377268 376270 375274 376279
      378284 380286 380289 383293 389302
 0.01 477618 479618 480618 482617 484617 485617 486617 487617
      489617 490616 492616 494616 495615 496616 497616 498617
      499618 546762 537773 532778 530780 527781 507785 491788
      481789 474786 470781 464773 460768 452766 448765 445767
      442770 442774 456803 459807 460811 462817 465821 469827
      469833 471836 475845 477855 478868 478876 476880 472890
      470890 468883 462866 460860 459856 455855 451856 447861
      441863 426865 422865 419863 419860 424860 434859 438852
      440847 442845 449840 451837 448833 443828 436822 432820
      427820 422820 419823 413822 408822 406824 404825 402820
      401817 398814 396812 394810 392811 384816 379821 376826
      375830 373831 370828 366826 363827 361832 359834 358830
      360826 360823 362819 364816 369815 376810 378805 380802
      385796 389792 395789 403785 411781 415775 417771 417767
      415765 413763 408761 405760 401760 384761 378762 374765
      368771 359775 352780 342783 337786 333791 328796 322802
      317808 309820 299834 287846 284852 280858 275863 271865
      269863 267859 269856 269852 267850 266852 263857 260859
      257858 257854 255852 253861 251870 247877 246882 245884
      242884 234881 231879 229874 232866 242838 237838 234838
      231836 232834 237824 244818 248816 250818 258823 260830
      259838 269827 275820 275809 274804 270804 266800 261802
      251803 248802 248799 255789 259782 264775 274765 287755
      292748 299742 302740 304740 310744 312748 314751 317749
      320743 325736 328729 334719 351691 356683 361675 365667
      372663 404648 409644 417641 422638 430634
 0.01 506957 506951 504947 501941 497934 492929 487924 481919
      481925 484934 487942 489949 494955 498957 501957 504959
      506957
 0.01 494076 494074 492071 491071 490071 490073 490074 492076
      493076 494076
 0.01 288820 286818 285819 283821 281823 280824 279825 278826
      277828 278829 280829 282827 283827 285825 286823 287822
      288820
 0.01 279978 279974 277972 274973 269976 266982 262986 262992
      262998 264001 266999 266992 266989 268985 272982 277979
      279978
 0.01 274843 273840 273838 271837 270839 270840 269841 268843
      267845 267847 267849 269851 270849 270847 272845 274843
 0.01 231973 235979 238980 242980 248976 252972 254964 254956
      254947 252943 250940 242941 237946 233951 231959 231965
 0.25 544192 538176 536172 534166 527163 512156 507154 505152
      499146 488137 481131 479130 477132 478138 484140 486143
      483148 480149 475148 468143 464145 463149 463161 461167
      460172 457175 455180 455184 459183 463181 467180 472178
      474183 477186 491183 494183 499185 502186 504190 508201
      514207 516210 516218 514221 510222 505214 503207 501202
      501197 500190 498191 469203 466204 462204 455202 451202
      448206 442211 436216 429220 427223 426228 424230 419228
      414224 408223 400227 397229 395234 394241 396246 398250
      398256 398266 403273 414283 412290 411297 413301 417303
      421303 426300 428301 430305 436311 441311 445309 450306
      453305 456306 459309 463309 470305 491276 497274 503275
      511276 516276 519274 521268 521259 521247 519240 523231
      534226
 0.25 558117 557114 555115 555116 554119 553120 553121 552124
      552127 552130 553132 553135 553138 554139 554141
 0.25 530696 525682 521675 517671 514663 511651 505635 501630
      497628 484630 471635 464637 457637 446638 438637 431640
      418647 407655 384670 373679 368684 364690 360700 356707
      351711 347715 345719 345721 346725 345728 341735 337745
      334752 338751 359734 365730 371728 378725 384725 389724
      393723 397722 399719 405708 410703 414704 418704 420708
      418715 418721 419725 423731 426733 428734 434731 474751
      484754 491754 496751 502748 510746 518744 525742 528740
      533736 536730 538724
 0.25 442750 438750 434751 430752 426756 427762 428767 430771
      433769 436766 438763 441758 442752 442750
 0.25 428788 428783 426783 422784 421786 419788 417791 417795
      417800 418804 419804 421801 422799 424796 426793 427791
      428788
 0.50 541203 536199 533196 531192 531182 530176 528173 518162
      510162 502160 498159 492161 485163 482165 482170 483173
      486175 492176 495177 498177 503181 507187 513194 517198
      522205 525213 528216 531218 537218
 0.50 516264 517257 517252 515239 513234 510229 505220 501211
      495203 489201 484200 479201 475204 469208 464209 460208
      455208 451210 442215 436219 434226 433233 429235 423233
      414226 410225 407226 400232 399234 398238 400244 410249
      416255 420258 422263 420274 422279 420285 418290 418296
      422296 425292 432285 439278 443277 442282 437293 435298
      435304 438308 443307 449304 453302 458302 462301 466300
      473292 483276 487273 491271 499269 509270 514268 516264
 0.50 515704 515699 514696 511690 508683 507677 507672 508657
      505649 503639 502637 500637 496642 492638 490637 487637
      483638 476640 471644 464646 455645 449657 449672 446688
      449694 454695 459697 460701 459704 457708 456716 459721
      462728 465733 469737 474738 481737 487737 494734 498731
      503726 510717 513710 515704
 0.50 474161 474159 473157 473156 472154 472153 471150 469149
      468150 467152 468155 470158 471160 471161 473161 474161
 0.50 434652 435648 433647 427649 420654 413661 404668 401671
      397673 388679 381684 377688 374692 371702 367710 365714
      365718 367720 371722 377719 384714 392707 400702 406695
      413688 416684 417679 416673 417670 423669 427664 434652
 1.00 512250 512243 510239 506228 500217 498213 494210 489206
      485205 480205 476208 472212 467212 462212 458213 443221
      441233 436244 431250 430254 432257 432263 429269 430271
      436263 449250 453247 458249 459252 462253 466250 469252
      469256 467261 462273 455281 452285 450288 450292 457297
      461296 464292 467288 468285 475275 479269 486261 490259
      495261 497258 497255 495249 491240 488235 483233 473228
      471226 472223 476222 484222 487225 488231 501248 506250
      510251 512250
 1.00 502668 501664 500663 495668 491669 486666 483664 478667
      471669 468670 465672 465677 470683 474685 478689 481693
      483698 483702 485712 487717 489719 492719 497716 499714
      500710 500700 499691 497685 497680 502668
 1.00 486648 485645 483646 482649 482652 484652 485651 485650
      486648
 1.00 425242 424240 424239 423238 421238 421240 422243 424243
      425242
 1.00 419237 418236 416236 414235 413236 413238 414239 414238
      416238 417238 419237
 1.00 413233 411231 410230 408231 407232 407234 407235 409234
      411234 413233
 1.50 504242 505236 504231 501224 497216 493211 485207 481208
      478210 476212 475215 477218 481219 488220 489222 490229
      494236 499240 504242
 1.50 492253 493248 491242 489238 484235 479233 477233 473232
      471234 470238 471244 474248 477252 480255 483255 488255
      492254 492253
 1.50 470218 468216 465217 463216 461215 460217 457218 455220
      455222 458222 459222 462224 464224 466221 469220 470218
 1.50 460240 459239 459237 458236 457235 455235 453235 452233
      450233 448233 447234 446235 446236 446238 447241 447243
      449242 451240 452240 453239 454239 456240 458240 459240
      460240
 2.00 500235 500231 499227 498221 494216 489212 483210 478213
      477215 478217 484217 486217 490219 491220 491224 492229
      493233 498235 500235
 2.00 490250 490245 488242 487240 484238 481237 479235 476234
      474235 473239 473242 474245 476248 479249 482250 485251
      487251 490250

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 496331 491332 486330 474325 465319 455314 450309 447305
      444302 442299 439298 433296 430297 424293 419293 411295
      406297 401297 392300 386301
 0.01 525257 518252 514249 512244 508234 505229 503221 504218
      503215 501212 496209 493206 487202 478203 475201 472202
      468202 466202 466198 468190 470188 474184 479183 482179
      485177 488177 491179 505192 510194 512192 517181 519176
      523173 526170 524164 520155 513148 511145 510139 508125
      504117 501106 499101 498095 497094 496104 497110 497113
      494114 491111 488106 485098 483095 477092 475083 470080
      469075 459055 455047 450039 448035 447036 446041 450046
      454054 457064 464088 464092 465096 465099 465111 465125
      463126 460124 457120 457116 459111 459108 457102 455098
      452094 445093 441094 437092 433092 428093 423093 419094
      415097 414105 407107 400114 406134 407138 407144 404155
      407159 407165 409176 408189 407196 403199 391196 381190
      373186 370183 369187 373207 369216 365217 362221 363232
      364238 363246 364269 370275 375283 386301
 0.01 423636 424643 429644 440645 441651 440658 440664 438669
      433679 430683 429685 429690 428695 425698 422693 421687
      419681 414677 412673 407674 404678 404685 404693 405701
      408704 407707 401709 398709 393704 391698 388694 384694
      379691 377686 377682 384676 387671 392668 397659 404651
      407647 412644 414639
 0.01 567977 567967 564962 560957 556951 547924 547906 546895
      545890 545884 544877 543867 541858 540850 536832 532814
      528801 521789 514783 507781 504782 502785 498788 495793
      489805 485818 482826 479832 476836 473840 471843 471847
      472858 473860 474864 477870 482873 484875 486879 487882
      488887 488892 487896 484903 482907 480910 480914 480919
      482922 484929 485933 486940 486947 489955 491960 494965
      500967 504972 508988 509995 507002 506010 509016 512021
      514028 515033 515039 515045 517046 522046 527043 531040
      534035 536030 540024 550015 556007 559003 562996 565985
      566979 567977
 0.01 533728 532717 530706 525690 522682 519675 515668 511663
      505664 503667 499668 494667 489665 483667 480674 480679
      483687 487693 488695 487698 485701 481705 478708 475710
      473712 471711 465707 451711 452716 460714 466716 468717
      471721 475725 479732 482737 487742 491747 494747 496749
      505756 510760 516762 520758 524753 528748 531740 533734
      533728
 0.01 487116 487111 486106 485103 483101 482100 479097 478102
      478106 479109 479114 481117 482120 484120 485118 487116
 0.01 460829 458795 456791 452786 448775 445747 442742 438738
      436735 434732 435727 430728 431733 431739 430745 428750
      428757 429763 430771 427775 423778 419781 418788 417793
      419799 424799 427794 429790 433786 436785 438788 440794
      443808 449815 452819 455826 456831 459832 460829
 0.01 428061 426058 423058 414056 407058 403057 398057 394064
      394068 396071 399076 402079 406080 414081 418081 418078
      418072 421070 424065 428061
 0.01 400157 399154 393153 392153 388153 390156 391161 393165
      391169 391175 393177 396173 398168 397163 399159 400157
 0.01 297796 296791 292788 289784 283781 276776 271774 269771
      266767 262763 262758 262754 260752 255752 253757 249766
      246776 245790 237791 231790 229790 228793 233802 240802
      239808 235816 233828 228851 227856 228860 227864 228872
      228878 234878 247877 254872 259870 264867 275869 282869
      287871 290873 294870 293863 295857 296854 292851 287849
      283846 274842 265837 258831 254827 253824 254820 250813
      250810 252808 258806 264806 267809 270814 275816 279815
      282811 293806 294804 296801 297796
 0.01 292947 292940 290932 288924 284918 280915 275910 271907
      267902 263898 256895 250894 245889 242885 241888 243894
      244903 244922 244930 242933 242937 239952 246948 250948
      253950 255958 258962 257966 255968 253970 253975 255983
      256984 259985 262987 264984 265977 263970 264965 270966
      277968 281968 283966 287958 290952 292947
 0.01 288902 288900 286900 284902 286903 288902 288902
 0.25 535941 535917 534907 532899 529889 529878 528868 523863
      514863 510869 508877 508885 510893 513911 515920 518928
      523943 527949 531948 535941
 0.25 491142 490139 489137 486133 484132 482130 480128 477129
      474130 473133 474138 475140 478141 482142 485141 488143
      491142
 0.25 480218 482214 481210 479208 475209 471211 469213 465212
      461210 456205 455199 458192 464180 468174 471170 478165
      481158 478152 475147 471145 461139 440143 436143 431146
      428152 425160 423165 424172 424177 426177 429173 438169
      439186 438190 437199 435207 433210 431210 426211 422217
      418220 413217 394205 385199 381199 382203 384209 386214
      384218 378220 375225 376240 377247 381252 386260 398266
      409272 415276 418278 422277 425276 429272 437265 443255
      448251 452247 468235 471229 474224 480218
 0.25 452105 450100 446099 443099 438100 435102 432105 428108
      428113 431116 433116 438115 441114 445113 448109 451106
      452105
 0.25 421204 421202 421200 422198 422197 422195 422193 421191
      419191 418192 417193 417194 416196 415198 414200 414201
      413203 414204 414205 415207 417207 419207 420206 421205
      421204
 0.25 262786 262783 261781 257780 254783 252788 251792 249795
      248799 248803 254803 259801 262799 261793 261788 262786
 0.25 252846 252842 251840 248839 244839 241841 239838 237840
      235843 235846 236848 238848 241846 245846 248846 250847
      252846
 0.50 477215 478213 477212 475212 474213 473214 472216 471216
      473217 475217 477216 477215
 0.50 479135 480132 479132 478132 479134 479135 479135
 0.50 467225 468219 465216 455211 448213 449200 450192 454189
      457184 458182 459178 456174 455169 456160 456154 454151
      440150 437152 437158 439162 443166 445174 444182 443188
      445198 442202 441207 442211 439213 432217 427221 426228
      424230 417227 410223 406224 403226 398226 394228 392230
      390234 386245 385247 390249 399253 405257 409257 413259
      419265 424265 428262 433259 439253 445248 451242 456236
      458232 462231 465230 467225
 0.50 473158 472156 472154 471153 470153 469154 467155 466157
      467157 468159 470160 471159 473158
 0.50 464154 463151 462150 461149 459148 458148 457147 457150
      457151 457152 458154 460154 462154 464154 464154
 0.50 404217 403216 402214 402213 400212 398212 396212 396213
      397215 398215 399217 401217 403217 404217
 1.00 454221 450218 445217 440216 437218 434222 433227 435230
      439231 443230 446228 449226 453223 454221
 1.00 453174 453173 451173 453175 453174
 1.00 429255 431248 432241 430236 427234 423235 418233 412228
      404231 402233 397234 396237 399240 403238 408241 411243
      415243 418242 420246 422255 427257 429255
 1.50 446223 446222 446221 445220 443219 442218 440219 439219
      438221 439224 440226 442227 444226 445226 446224 446223
 1.50 427252 427250 427247 427244 427242 427240 426239 425237
      423238 422238 421240 421243 422245 422246 423248 423251
      424252 426253 427252
 1.50 420238 419237 418235 416235 415234 415233 414234 413234
      411234 410235 409236 408237 409237 410238 412240 413240
      415240 417239 419238 420238
 2.00 425241 425239 425238 424239 423241 424243 425241
 2.00 416237 416236 414236 416237 416237

$$





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