Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 281839
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 29/0000 UTC THRU MAY 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

T.D. #2 WILL CONTINUE A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST---MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE LOWER SC COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES WILL BE PUSHING INLAND EARLY THIS PERIOD INTO
SC/NC--SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.  HEAVY PRECIP LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SLOW
MOVING LAND-FALLING SYSTEM---AND WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASINGLY LARGE AREA OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC---WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS DAY 1
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL ACROSS EASTERN SC AND SOUTHEAST
NC WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 5 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED.  LIGHTER TOTALS EXPECTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.   SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

UPPER MS VALLEY---GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST

THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
ITS PROGRESSIVE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QB.  HOWEVER---WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES STRETCHING AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW---WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
CONVECTION LIKELY TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE UPPER  MS VALLEY---THRU
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TOTALS ARE DEPICTED.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS PERIOD---ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN CA
CLOSED LOW---MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS AS SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS---PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME
DURING THE UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE---HOWEVER---IS NOT
GREAT WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL.  THE IN
HOUSE QPF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES---WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TX INTO WESTERN TO CENTRAL OK.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL CA...GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES

MODELS ARE SIMILAR MASS FIELD WISE WITH THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DAY 1.  DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION---ESPECIALLY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL SIERRA---GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST DAY 1 FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC---INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA.  HEIGHT FALLS ROTATING
THROUGH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT INLAND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
DURING SUNDAY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE WA CASCADES AND WA COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE AND LIGHT TOTALS
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES OF NORTHERN ID AND NW MT.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 552107 552096 552089 553085 553079 552075 549069 544061
      540053 533039 528031 523023 530018 535014 538011 540006
      543001 545996 547992 550985 553974 557954 557929 556914
      555901 554873 550843 549826 547822 547815 544784 536764
      520739 516731 513723 509712 507708 506701 502690 497680
      492672 487666 482659 475655 472652 468651 460651 457653
      456657 456668 456686 454696 452701 448704 435712 429716
      425720 423726 420735 419740 417744 413744 408745 397746
      393745 387745 379745 372744 363746 361742 358741 351740
      347741 344743 339743 335745 330751 327757 318774 305784
      302787 302792 306800 310809 312814 312820 314826 316829
      319830 327830 333833 337835 341835 345843 349843 350846
      353848 358848 366845 370842 373838 379834 381830 384828
      387827 387830 387834 384838 382843 379852 380859 380864
      382864 388861 392855 397851 401845 407838 411838 415835
      418833 419835 414841 410848 404854 396860 391865 380880
      377884 375888 373900 374906 378913 380916 383916 390915
      398911 401909 406908 409906 413906 418906 422907 428912
      430918 431922 430925 429936 428940 425944 423947 422956
      423962 426966 434966 443971 456976 471977 479982 482982
      485985 494985 500983 509983 511982 513983 513991 509002
      507998 503998 498998 495000 490000 486001 483003 483006
      481008 477006 473006 468013 467024 468027 470030 476033
      489043 492045 494049 498056 516086 525104 532112 541114
      545115 548113 552107
 0.01 537213 538202 538195 538185 536177 522152 518148 513144
      508145 502144 497143 491139 486133 481130 475129 471130
      466132 460135 457135 455137 456140 455145 454148 452151
      451156 451161 452166 451170 452173 454176 455167 454162
      453155 455152 457152 461153 467157 470165 470170 472171
      475174 478173 481174 485175 486177 487183 487189 488193
      487198 486201 484201 482201 476205 468211 462213 458215
      452219 450221 449224 455225 460227 470224 475222 481222
      488226 492231 493235 492238 485238 482238 481235 479230
      476228 473229 468231 464231 462233 455233 453235 452240
      458242 469242 479249 485254 490260 494266 499271 503275
      507277 510276 511273 513271 514266 518260 522255 526247
      529240 531234 533226 535217 537213
 0.01 452042 452039 450036 447036 445034 442033 438031 436033
      436038 436040 439043 441043 443046 446046 448044 450042
      452042
 0.01 443101 443094 440091 433095 428089 426091 429098 423102
      417109 414110 413107 412100 412095 410092 406092 404095
      402103 401105 397105 392105 388108 380116 378116 376120
      373125 375131 378130 387126 395119 401117 409118 412120
      414122 416123 417128 417132 415139 411142 406140 398138
      393138 389143 387146 387150 386154 384159 381175 380180
      379183 372182 366179 359179 350181 346186 344192 346199
      347201 349199 348194 349190 351188 356188 361190 371195
      394207 396205 395203 393198 390194 389190 390186 393178
      399176 406178 410178 412177 415173 418169 421164 422156
      424135 425130 426127 430121 434119 438115 443101
 0.01 230011 239018 246020 253024 259027 263030 267031 284036
      297040 303043 306045 310045 314047 319048 329049 332048
      337048 344046 349042 353038 359032 364030 369028 374029
      377031 378037 379041 376044 372046 369046 365047 362047
      356050 358055 362056 364055 373053 380058 382061 382066
      378067 375064 369065 371070 374078 376082 378083 383077
      385075 387075 390078 393080 397080 401074 405073 407075
      413074 418062 415054 409049 407045 408040 412031 418020
      424004 427994 428991 426987 424982 424978 421975 417975
      394961 387957 380954 375953 372951 364949 352952 345955
      340959 336961 334964 329970 323975 319976 314977 299979
      294981 287984 272990 268991 264991 253991 248991 242990
      236989 231990
 0.01 345180 344176 344171 343166 340163 336163 331163 328166
      330168 335170 339172 341174 341177 341182 345180 345180
 0.01 305078 305072 303065 300063 297060 294060 287060 281061
      268060 263059 259063 256067 256074 259078 264082 273088
      284093 290094 295092 300089 303085 305078
 0.01 291826 287818 286814 284808 278804 270800 267799 261799
      256801 252803 249806 250812 252816 255819 263821 270825
      278828 289827 291826
 0.25 546920 544899 542875 539848 536838 533827 528812 525805
      522802 519802 514802 512797 509789 506778 504764 500747
      498738 495728 488709 480691 476685 473680 469679 468681
      466689 465700 466712 468722 470736 469745 468753 467762
      467768 468771 472780 477787 484806 486812 489820 490833
      489843 485863 484869 484874 479873 471873 466876 461872
      455876 449882 443886 437891 436895 436899 441913 445921
      451925 454926 457925 463919 472904 481894 486890 488887
      488882 490878 492883 495891 498901 502911 503914 502920
      501928 500939 501944 503947 510946 517944 520941 524940
      531939 537937 541933 544926 546920
 0.25 531202 529191 526182 520173 514166 508165 503164 500165
      497168 496173 496177 500185 505194 507197 512199 520204
      526205 529204 531202
 0.25 536083 536076 534071 530063 524055 518050 510046 508045
      509050 513059 516069 521077 526084 530087 533087 535085
      536083
 0.25 503236 504230 503225 501217 496210 490208 483209 477212
      475214 476217 482219 488221 491223 493228 496234 500236
      503236
 0.25 441745 440743 439742 437742 435742 433740 432741 432742
      431745 431746 431747 431750 431752 433754 433755 435755
      437753 438751 438750 440748 441745 441745
 0.25 392764 392761 390760 384761 372762 362761 356760 352759
      344765 335771 328777 325781 320783 316785 313789 313797
      314805 318813 327819 335822 342822 347820 353813 359803
      361799 364796 369793 375790 378788 381784 387774 392764
 0.25 375191 374190 374188 373187 371186 370185 368184 366184
      365184 364186 366187 367188 368190 369190 371191 372192
      374192 375191
 0.25 375988 376983 376979 373974 364964 360962 356962 354964
      347976 345981 341986 336990 330988 316987 303992 290993
      283993 277995 272998 269003 267005 269007 274011 279012
      287013 300013 314015 321016 327016 338012 343011 349013
      355014 360012 365007 369001 371994 375988
 0.25 267013 267011 265010 265011 263011 262012 261013 261014
      262015 263015 265015 267013 267013
 0.50 539917 540910 540903 539887 538872 535856 532846 528837
      525837 524840 522835 517824 511820 507810 505796 503788
      502780 501769 498757 496750 495742 491729 483711 478700
      476702 475707 476720 476732 475746 474760 475767 477771
      482780 490801 494810 497820 499830 499838 497852 496857
      497862 502870 507880 513888 516914 518920 521924 524927
      529926 536923 539917
 0.50 521191 520188 519185 517182 515179 514176 512174 510172
      507171 505171 504176 505179 507182 509185 510187 513189
      515191 518192 521191
 0.50 462898 463895 463893 461892 460893 458895 458896 457898
      456899 456901 455903 455906 456908 457908 458908 459908
      459905 460904 460903 461900 462900 462898
 0.50 367780 367775 365773 360769 355772 350777 338782 332785
      324787 317789 315792 315796 316804 320810 324814 330817
      336819 340818 343816 348813 353807 359796 365784 367780
 0.50 299002 297998 293997 288995 284994 280995 277997 275003
      278006 284007 287008 291006 295004 298003 299002
 1.00 497776 497771 496766 495758 493751 490744 488737 486735
      483735 481741 481751 482761 485768 488774 492777 495778
      497776
 1.00 352793 351791 346790 337791 328792 321793 319795 318800
      319805 321808 326813 333815 340814 345809 349804 351795
      352793
 1.50 346803 345796 341795 337795 332795 326796 323798 322804
      322806 324810 328812 332813 336813 341811 344807 345805
      346803
 2.00 344803 343800 341798 337797 334798 330799 328801 327803
      326806 326808 328809 331811 333811 337811 339810 342808
      343805 344803
 3.00 337806 337804 336803 335804 334804 334806 335807 336807
      337806

$$




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