Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FXUS04 KWBC 161851
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 17/0000 UTC THRU OCT 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NEW ENGLAND...

THE BAND OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD THRU NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC CLOSED H5
LOW..WITH A PROGRESSIVE BAND OF PWS ABOVE 1.75 INCHES LIFTING
THRU.  THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME..LEADING TO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
DIFFLUENT PATTERN AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS THRU NEW ENGLAND.
THE COMBINATION OF THE ENHANCED LARGE SCALE LIFT AND THE HIGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO EVEN
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINS..MAINLY INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS AND
MOSTLY OVER THE STATE OF MAINE.  THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF RAINFALL BANDS IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO
NORTH DIRECTION..SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES WHERE THIS TRAINING OCCURS.  RATHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THRU
MUCH OF ME..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.  AGAIN..THE
IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED TO MITIGATE
SOME OF THE QPF DETAILS AMONGST THE MODELS.


...GREAT LAKES...

THE STRONG AND COMPACT H5 TROF/CLOSED H5 LOW NOW VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THIS PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING/LIFTING OUT SYSTEM NOW OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM AND ONLY VERY MODEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SYSTEM WILL BE AVAILABLE THRU THE GREAT LAKES..SINCE THERE
WILL BE BE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL INFLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEMS.
THUS..EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MAINLY THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE UPSTREAM H5 TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO VERY NEAR THE
WEST COAST BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD..BUT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
STILL OFFSHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL MAINLY SOUTHERLY FOR
THE MOST PART.  THIS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINS
OFFSHORE AND DIRECTED INTO B.C..BUT A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUTH-TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO WESTERN WA AND ESPECIALLY THE
OLYMPICS WILL LEAD TO SOME MODERATE RAINS THESE AREAS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 482616 489622 492625 495630 500643 502650 504658 505666
      507672 512682 518695 523707 526718 531730 533748 535769
      536781 538800 539809 538816 536824 535832 531858 527871
      522884 521889 518895 515905 509915 507919 502924 490938
      488944 489953 490961 494964 498966 503967 508966 513968
      516973 515978 514981 509991 506993 501995 497995 493993
      485988 482984 479977 476967 474960 471955 460935 456926
      454921 453914 452906 453901 451899 447886 443876 440873
      435869 431866 427862 425858 422853 422850 424844 426838
      428835 434825 434819 429821 420820 414810 412805 409803
      406804 394805 391806 389808 384810 382810 381807 380804
      382799 387796 397790 420782 427776 429774 430771 431766
      433756 434749 434742 435739 434735 431728 424721 408713
      398711 392711 387710 369705 360702 356699 356693 361673
      368665 371661 376657 393645
 0.01 533222 535213 534206 531194 526183 523178 520175 511170
      507171 504176 505183 507189 512199 517209 523219 529224
      533222
 0.01 517276 519269 520261 519247 517238 512229 503212 497205
      494203 489202 473205 458210 452213 443215 435217 427220
      417218 414219 411223 405228 397231 387228 384230 382234
      381239 383244 385248 388251 403262 423268 430266 435267
      440266 444268 447269 447273 448283 452290 456294 461297
      464299 468302 478306 486306 493303 506295 513286 517276
 0.01 442781 441779 439780 438782 438783 437784 437787 438789
      440786 441784 442781
 0.01 354117 350112 345107 342100 341091 339083 337081 333082
      331085 332088 334097 336104 338113 343118 350120 354117
 0.25 514272 517262 516252 512239 510232 506226 499216 492212
      485212 479211 476212 474214 472216 478218 484219 489224
      488231 483232 479229 473229 468231 461232 456231 450234
      446238 442243 445248 452252 461261 465267 466274 467280
      470288 474292 482294 487295 493294 503289 507286 510281
      514272
 0.25 528777 528765 527753 522732 516715 508700 501687 492673
      489667 485662 480657 474653 468650 464646 464638 459634
      456633 452636 450638 446640 438639 426640 417642 408645
      396652 390657 385663 381669 380672 381677 385686 389692
      400700 405703 411705 418706 423709 429712 434717 438722
      444725 449729 454735 459740 463746 466753 469766 469776
      466783 464791 461800 461811 463823 465831 469840 471846
      472850 471854 467862 465871 465882 465888 467892 469894
      474893 479889 489879 499868 507857 515843 520829 523821
      525810 527792 528777
 0.50 512268 514262 514254 512244 509236 504228 500222 496219
      493222 491236 484236 477231 470233 464237 461239 460245
      464252 469258 473266 474277 476281 479284 484290 488291
      492290 498288 504284 507281 509276 512268
 0.50 523770 522759 520750 513735 507720 501705 494692 485681
      476673 466665 457657 451654 445653 437655 431655 419651
      412651 407653 401657 395663 397673 395680 395685 397690
      401694 406697 419702 429707 439715 445716 450718 461727
      466730 470734 480742 485745 490749 494755 498762 495777
      492784 488793 479802 475807 472815 477855 473870 474873
      478872 484868 488866 494862 498857 503851 510838 513831
      516823 520807 522800 522789 522779 523770
 1.00 510259 510250 508243 505236 500230 499228 497227 495230
      497239 495243 491241 488240 485240 482242 481241 478234
      474234 473238 473242 474247 481257 484265 487270 492276
      495283 503278 509261 510259
 1.00 502826 503824 503821 502819 501818 500818 499819 498819
      497821 496822 496825 495827 495828 496830 497831 499830
      500829 501829 502827 502826
 1.00 487704 486697 484692 478686 465676 458672 454671 449673
      440674 430676 422675 417674 415678 412681 409686 415691
      430698 437702 445705 461709 468709 477711 482709 487704
 1.50 503273 503265 502257 503252 503247 498248 493245 490243
      487243 484248 485254 487260 492266 496270 501273 503273
 1.50 462696 461691 460688 456685 451683 445682 440684 437686
      436690 438693 443696 447697 453700 458700 462696
 2.00 502270 501264 499259 498255 495251 493248 490244 487246
      487252 488257 491261 493264 496268 501270 502270

$$




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