Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 280641
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 28/1200 UTC THRU SEP 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

THE SEASONABLY STRONG AND RATHER SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF ORGANIZED
RAINS THRUOUT MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST..BUT WITH AMOUNTS ON
THE DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PAST DAY OR SO IN A LOWER PW/LESS
MOIST AIRMASS.  LOW/LOWERING HEIGHTS/COOL AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH
SOME CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/UPPER DIFFLUENCE
WILL LEAD TO THE RATHER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES..WITH H5 S/WV
ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE EVER SO SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE H5 LOW
BRINGING RAINS BACK THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00
INCH MOST LIKELY..GENERALLY IN LINE WITH MODEL QPF
SOLUTIONS..ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.


...GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

WHEREAS THERE WAS DECENT MODEL QPF AGREEMENT OUT WEST..SUCH IS NOT
NECESSARILY THE CASE THRU THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES..LEADING TO A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE THRU THIS REGION FOR THE PAST DAY
OR SO..WITH 00Z GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT TOO QUICK TO BRING SOME
HEAVIER RAINS INLAND..AND THIS IS THE CASE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST A FEW OF THE GLOBAL MODEL QPFS..LIKELY CAUSED IN PART BY
FEEDBACK ISSUES.  GIVEN THAT THE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUITE FLAT ALOFT THIS PERIOD THRU THIS AREA..AND WITH ONLY
A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO..HAVE
KEPT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS CONFINED TO NEAR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES..AT LEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING.  GAVE
VIRTUALLY NO CREDENCE TO THE 00Z GFS..OLD 12Z ECMWF HIRES AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z UKMET HIRES QPFS..ALL OF WHICH APPEARED TO
HAVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS..AND INSTEAD WENT CLOSER TO THE HIRES ARW
AND NMMB..CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL AND EVEN THE NAM QPFS FOR THIS
FORECAST.  DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE
RAINS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST..WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  HAVE JUST SEEN THE 00Z ECMWF
HIRES QPF..AND IT IS NOW MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED THAN ITS 12Z
RUNS..WHICH DOES ADD A BIT OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE AT LEAST
GOING IN THE CORRECT DIRECTION.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 522263 517258 510255 505252 499252 493252 486249 480249
      475255 466264 456269 452274 450279 451282 454285 456286
      462287 476289 488289 501292 513291
 0.01 519874 519858 518849 517844 515832 512822 509813 507807
      505804 504798 501788 498777 488751 480738 473734 468742
      467762 464815 459837 458844 458852 459864 462887 463901
      463913 462941 462966 465974 466973 469972 470975 472993
      472004 469012 467022 467036 465043 464046 462045 459035
      456026 455020 453017 449014 446010 447994 447982 447976
      445971 441972 438975 435977 431978 429980 428983 427988
      427011 426016 424021 421024 416024 411032 405038 403040
      401044 398048 395050 388053 383054 378054 372050 363049
      355048 347048 332049 328051 328056 331058 335057 342060
      342067 327078 323083 315088 313098 309100 306103 307111
      315114 331116 336121 343125 346125 349122 350115 350110
      349105 352104 356103 358105 361107 366108 370108 371115
      372120 371125 367131 365135 366137 372138 375135 388128
      394127 401127 409128 415132 418140 419145 418150 417156
      415160 413165 410167 405167 403163 399154 392149 388149
      383148 380150 377153 374157 374165 373170 371174 363177
      362184 366190 370195 375201 385205 393211 400213 407212
      415213 422209 432198 442179 447175 451173 454171 457165
      458157 462150 465142 480139 486137 488134 488129 486124
      484118 482107 483093 486080 489069 492057 496036 500018
      504997 508976 511949 512938 513924 514920 514912 515897
      516890 518884 518878 519874
 0.01 365820 365810 362805 357803 351804 346806 339807 335806
      333803 330796 329794 328788 328780 326773 322771 318771
      317773 314779 310791 304803 300806 295808 288809 282807
      276806 270803 263801 256802 248808 249814 253819 258823
      260825 261829 265843 266849 267857 266871 266880 265888
      262903 262909 260915 257945 257963 259966 261968 264968
      271969 277967 283964 287960 292955 295950 300941 305931
      308926 314920 317915 322911 324907 326900 326885 326876
      328868 334857 340849 348841 357832 365820
 0.01 287081 285074 282070 277065 271062 260055 255052 248050
      236045 236050 239056 247065 256073 268080 273083 279086
      284085 287081
 0.25 515277 516272 514269 512267 508266 505268 499270 493268
      488267 485267 482270 483274 487275 492275 497275 503278
      508280 513279 515277
 0.25 508877 509869 507864 505857 504844 504837 502831 500820
      497811 492805 489803 485806 481815 480822 476842 474864
      474875 477885 479889 479896 478905 477911 478917 481927
      484937 485947 484974 484988 485997 485010 485014 486020
      487022 489020 490016 493008 495997 496985 497971 497959
      499937 502925 503916 506893 506884 508877
 0.25 469093 469085 468081 464073 459067 457063 454056 453051
      451047 446041 439037 434037 431040 420040 414044 411047
      410052 408057 405060 397064 390067 386068 382067 378066
      373063 367062 364066 362074 361079 361084 364088 367091
      377095 385097 401106 405115 407118 412118 422121 425124
      428129 429140 427150 426157 425163 423168 422172 425172
      430173 434171 440168 446163 449159 450153 455144 457140
      457135 457122 456117 457111 463099 469093
 0.25 392183 394179 393175 391173 388172 385173 383175 381178
      380181 380185 382187 386187 387187 390185 392183
 0.25 336826 335821 332818 327818 320821 312818 306819 302819
      294819 279814 264810 260809 256809 254812 257816 268823
      276827 280834 282838 282843 282853 282862 281873 279893
      278914 279926 280934 284941 288942 291939 301928 306920
      309913 313907 317900 316881 322865 326857 328848 332836
      336826
 0.25 322797 322795 322793 321792 319793 318793 318796 317796
      317798 317800 317802 318804 320803 320802 321799 322797
 0.50 499863 498852 497840 496834 494832 490825 487831 485841
      484851 484858 485862 488865 489871 491881 491884 495882
      497873 499865 499863
 0.50 449143 449132 449122 447113 444103 443096 445090 448084
      450080 450075 455075 449061 448055 446050 439045 431044
      424045 420046 417047 415051 413057 414062 414066 407070
      400071 398075 394076 388076 383075 377072 371068 369070
      368077 368082 370086 374088 378089 386086 394089 401090
      409093 413099 414112 417115 422116 428119 431127 434138
      434143 433149 432157 433162 436163 440162 443159 445155
      446149 449143
 0.50 324848 326838 325833 322828 312825 297828 289830 288835
      288841 287854 286866 285881 285893 284908 284920 285926
      288930 293928 297925 303918 308908 313898 311891 309887
      311877 316869 320859 324848
 1.00 442132 443130 443127 442126 442125 441123 439123 437123
      437124 437126 437129 438131 438132 440133 441133 442132
 1.00 432102 433099 432097 432094 431093 431092 430090 428089
      426091 424093 424095 424096 425098 427101 429103 430103
      432102 432102
 1.00 305888 306878 309870 314862 317851 318840 317836 315835
      309835 301837 297840 294853 291866 290881 290889 291895
      293899 296899 302897 306892 305888
 1.00 297912 298910 297908 296908 295907 294906 293904 292906
      292908 292910 292912 292914 293915 295914 297912 297912
 1.50 301884 302878 304868 308864 313856 314847 313843 309840
      303842 301848 297859 297866 296875 296885 299886 301884

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.