Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 262015
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
414 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 27/0000 UTC THRU AUG 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...EASTERN CO THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...A QUASI-STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT..SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS ORGANIZED AND ENHANCED
CONVECTION..ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST.  ONGOING CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF LOWER MI AND
NORTHERN IND SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EAST INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION UNDER A LESS FAVORABLE AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL
JET..BUT EXPECT CONVECTION TO RE-FIRE TUESDAY NIGHT FROM NEB INTO
IA AGAIN AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS TO 20-30 KTS..BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND LEADING TO POOLING OF PWS TO 1.75-2 INCHES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.  THE MODEL QPFS WERE IN REASONABLY
DECENT AGREEMENT ON AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS FROM PARTS OF NEB
INTO WESTERN IA..THOUGH AS IS QUITE OFTEN THE CASE..THERE REMAIN
SOME LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AXIS WILL SET UP.   EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS..BUT AS IS THE CASE WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN
NEB..ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.   BACK IN
EASTERN CO..THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS INTO THE
TUESDAY MORNING HOURS AND BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING..WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME BETTER
MOISTURE AND STILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING TIME
OF BETTER HEATING..LEADING TO SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS.

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING AS THE TROUGH IN THE WEST MOVES OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
RESTRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO FEED MOISTURE INTO AN
AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER...WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD LATE IN THE
PERIOD.


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...

SOUTHERLY INFLOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIRLY ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE VALUES EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS AZ/NM THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  THIS MOISTURE...INTERACTING WITH STRONG UPPER
FORCING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
FURTHER EAST AS WELL.  MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO HAMPER THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW EVENING.  HOWEVER PRIOR TO THAT...RATHER
WIDESPREAD AREAL AVERAGE RAINS OF 0.50-1.00+ INCHES LIKELY..BUT
WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN..WHICH IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.

...WESTERN GULF COAST...

THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THRU THE WESTERN GULF
COAST STATES THIS PERIOD..BRINGING THE SLUG OF HIGHER PWS ABOVE 2
INCHES WITH IT AS WELL AS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
INTO ESPECIALLY THE MID AND UPPER TX COAST.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED RAINS MOVING INTO THE TX COASTAL REGION..WITH SOME
0.50+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINS LIKELY..BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED
HEAVIER TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEYS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAYS 2 AND 3/THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL SEPARATE
RELATIVELY DRY/COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA INTO WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS AREA CORRESPONDS TO THE SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS A WARM FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO A
REGION WITH AREAL AVERAGED PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.75 TO 2.25
INCHES.

ON DAY 2...THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL MORNING MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
THE AXIS AND QPF AMOUNTS FROM NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN.  THE 12Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
REFLECTS OF A RANGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.  THE
9Z SREFMEAN APPEARS MOST CLEARLY UNDER PREDICTED...WITH
SURPRISINGLY SMALL QPF AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY .25 INCH OR LESS WHILE
THE UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS WITH MAXIMUM QPF VALUES OF AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES.  WITH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR OVER THE REGION...HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

ON DAY 3...THE 12Z MODEL DATA APPEARS TO INDICATE THAT AS THE MAIN
AREA OF HEAVY QPF MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST...TOTAL
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FROM DAY 2 AND HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS...WHILE A SEPARATE AREA
OF HEAVY QPF DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT
LAGGING BACK OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TWO SMALL AREAS
ARE INDICATED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

HURLEY/KOCIN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 492708 490702 487698 479700 481684 479665 475659 473662
      470662 466666 464671 461680 458688 454695 450704 448707
      444710 442717 438721 435722 434721 432714 437707 442700
      446691 447688 446684 446681 446678 444679 440685 434691
      423705 417712 414715 413719 409734 406743 403750 404775
      396791 393798 390806 388816 386823 384834 382844 380849
      379854 378863 379887 376904 375918 377925 386940 393956
      397963 395970 390977 383983 368988 364989 360991 355997
      350001 345005 336021 332029 325033 320036 314036 309036
      306036 305042 303049 308055 311058 308059 304063 299062
      290063 277070 268070 264070 263072 259080 264086 266089
      269091 277095 280097 285098 293100 295109 300112 303112
      305115 310121 323131 334133 340137 353145 359146 362144
      367142 371143 376144 380146 389148 396146 400146 403149
      407154 414160 416159 419156 421152 422146 422140 421135
      419127 418124 420122 422119 426113 428109 431106 433107
      442109 443107 442102 444098 447095 447094 444091 442086
      441081 444078 448078 450076 451070 452066 454061 455056
      452046 448039 445015 448006 448996 450990 447983 443974
      440966 437961 436957 434946 430926 424909 423898 424889
      425879 426872 431871 436871 439869 443863 446858 450856
      455852 460843 460841 457839 452834 445828 443823 444819
      445809 445796 445791 447788 459776 461773 462768 467759
      471752 476746 481741 485735 488728 490722 492708
 0.01 460729 463722 461721 458723 454730 452733 452734 450736
      450738 451740 452739 454737 458732 460729
 0.01 431835 431833 433827 429830 429831 428833 428834 427836
      426837 425838 425840 424841 423842 422844 421845 420846
      422848 423848 425846 425845 426843 427843 428841 428840
      430838 431835
 0.01 372880 372869 368862 366859 365854 365843 359845 356850
      353854 353857 351861 351866 352888 350897 348903 344912
      342919 343928 346928 348925 353919 357912 363898 366891
      370885 372880
 0.01 341124 340115 339107 337100 335096 333093 328089 325086
      323089 323094 326096 329101 326103 328106 327116 326119
      326123 335125 338127 341125 341124
 0.01 311996 312990 310988 306985 303983 297983 295985 295991
      296996 297002 300002 304001 308000 311996 311996
 0.01 306812 300808 293806 279800 272796 269795 264796 254797
      247800 243807 241815 240819 241823 243828 247828 253823
      254814 260816 266821 268824 271824 276820 279811 286815
      295816 300816 304815 306812
 0.01 310939 309921 307903 307892 308885 308874 306867 300863
      298856 294849 289847 283850 281853 280857 279875 278882
      274888 267900 259910 256911 254914 253921 253931 254939
      255958 256966 255973 255978 257980 261984 268987 272986
      274985 285979 296971 305960 307956 309950 310939
 0.25 443005 444997 443990 441987 438984 436980 435973 434963
      432953 429943 425934 422926 417916 413909 411905 411899
      411888 413877 413871 412865 405860 404852 402848 399846
      396847 394851 393863 392872 392879 394884 397894 400913
      395917 393917 387914 382915 383920 387932 400953 403963
      402968 398976 393984 389989 378001 366012 363016 363021
      358030 355040 351044 347048 344049 335050 327053 324056
      325061 330068 325073 326076 329079 333081 337079 338075
      341071 347065 350063 354062 361063 367057 371057 374058
      377061 377067 373073 372078 374082 377085 381086 391087
      398086 402089 403093 400103 394109 394114 399115 402118
      404118 408116 414111 419104 421080 420069 422066 425065
      429063 432059 434051 438042 440037 440032 438015 443005
 0.25 427812 426811 424810 423810 421810 419811 417812 416814
      415816 414819 415821 416823 417823 418823 420822 421820
      422820 423818 424817 425816 426815 426814 427812
 0.25 419754 420749 418745 418740 419735 415735 412739 408745
      406750 407758 409766 412771 415769 416767 418760 419754
 0.25 365123 364119 363114 363108 360107 357109 353112 350115
      348119 350123 351127 353131 358132 361130 363125 365123
 0.25 310083 310079 309076 306074 302072 295069 287072 282074
      274077 270081 273086 280089 289091 297090 304088 308087
      310084 310083
 0.25 302884 302880 301876 299874 297873 296874 292876 291879
      289881 289885 288887 289889 293890 296889 298889 301886
      302884
 0.25 300952 301947 299943 299935 298925 297917 294912 290911
      286912 282916 279918 275918 269920 265925 264941 265958
      265963 266966 271970 278971 282972 286970 291967 295962
      298956 300952
 0.25 247821 247819 247817 247815 246813 245812 245813 244814
      244815 244817 244819 244821 244822 246822 247821
 0.50 438004 438998 436995 433990 431985 431980 432971 431960
      429952 423937 415923 410918 406919 404922 403932 405940
      407949 408959 407965 405968 401975 394987 386000 384003
      384009 383014 381017 376021 370025 364030 363033 365036
      378035 386033 391036 395044 399049 402052 406052 415053
      418052 422052 425051 428049 432043 435035 436030 436026
      436017 437009 438004
 0.50 416753 416750 416748 416745 414744 413745 412746 412749
      411749 411751 410754 411756 411758 411760 413762 414760
      414759 415757 415755 416753 416753
 0.50 413106 413104 412103 411102 410101 409100 409098 408097
      407098 407100 406102 406105 405106 405107 404109 404111
      405112 407112 408111 410110 412108 412107 413106
 0.50 409882 410875 409868 405871 404876 402880 401887 402894
      403899 404902 406901 407896 408891 409884 409882
 0.50 357122 357120 356118 355120 355122 357122 357122
 0.50 345061 346059 345057 344057 343056 341054 340054 339054
      338056 339058 340058 340061 341063 340065 341065 342064
      344063 345061
 0.50 301080 296078 293077 289078 284078 280080 279084 282086
      284086 288083 290081 294081 298082 301080
 0.50 296947 297933 295920 292915 289915 287916 281923 271927
      269932 269939 270954 269961 271963 274964 283967 287965
      290962 294957 295952 296947
 1.00 431030 432023 432016 430011 427014 425018 422022 421027
      419031 419036 420039 422040 427039 429036 431031 431030
 1.00 427008 427998 427985 428972 427965 427959 424949 421940
      418933 412928 409929 406932 407937 409942 411951 411963
      408972 404979 401988 400991 402993 406991 410990 411995
      410003 412013 415016 419015 424011 425012 427010 427008
 1.00 407005 406001 404000 401998 399000 397003 395006 394009
      393011 392015 392017 395016 397015 400014 402012 404009
      406007 407005
 1.00 292943 293937 292931 292927 290921 288922 287925 285928
      281931 279934 276937 276941 277944 281946 287947 289947
      292944 292943
 1.50 422999 422989 424980 424961 423953 421945 419940 416935
      410933 409935 409938 412952 413959 413968 411975 408981
      407984 410985 412983 415984 416992 415998 415002 417004
      420004 422001 422999
 2.00 421964 421956 419947 417942 414937 410937 410940 412946
      414949 414954 415961 416970 417976 419975 420971 421964

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 496279 519205 541078 545962 544939 535940 512987 502019
      494059 496105 492118 490148 498167 497195 488202 480211
      472217 473219 476220 484223 488229 489233 489238 487247
      486254 484260 481267 479272 478276 481281 487285 492284
      496279
 0.01 509070 522068 527058 524040 517036 509037 503043 501050
      503062 509070
 0.01 514761 494683 477641 473631 459638 457649 458673 453688
      449699 445715 454723 464714 466724 465739 470752 489757
      497758 500762 504769 506774 510776 514768 514761
 0.01 357969 348974 337974 330966 334952 335932 326923 315902
      305890 293878 286880 280891 266931 258965 259982 268998
      277014 280046 270063 265081 271087 284091 298093 320092
      343089 356088 369090 375095 371109 382115 402110 429103
      443106 452103 441087 440076 454079 448061 449036 459986
      469933 465901 464895 461888 454877 451872 446868 433861
      425859 417856 411854 406850 402848 393836 394821 403799
      402788 394784 389792 388808 385813 381811 380800 373793
      366799 365816 371852 387887 395908 396931 390945 387949
      383953 368962 357969
 0.01 300824 298811 304804 302797 288792 263788 247796 240806
      240821 246829 259829 270831 273831 279832 287831 295828
      300824
 0.25 522170 525157 525149 524144 523133 521123 519121 517121
      515123 508125 505128 503132 500142 500152 504161 507170
      506182 505192 504205 502218 502226 504229 507229 509226
      511222 513216 518193 522170
 0.25 493699 485674 484672 480673 478678 477684 476689 478696
      480701 482703 487702 491700 493699
 0.25 461935 460923 459916 456903 453896 450890 445890 441890
      436889 422886 413882 407878 404880 403884 404894 406901
      410914 411922 412931 410940 409947 405954 402960 393969
      389972 384974 374979 360984 350989 342995 332005 329011
      330016 332018 339020 345019 354015 365010 369008 373009
      381010 386013 388015 389020 385031 383040 379046 379050
      381053 384057 387065 386070 387073 391075 396076 400074
      402072 406067 409061 411054 418041 424032 432021 435015
      437008 456952 461935
 0.25 312945 311936 309932 306929 303927 302924 298916 294910
      291910 288914 285921 283931 277947 270961 268969 268975
      269978 271981 276982 283982 290983 297979 301973 304964
      307956 311949 312945
 0.25 250804 247809 248817 256821 265820 275815 279812 278805
      274803 266800 259800 251802 250804
 0.50 512185 510196 510200 513203 516190 516187 516185 514184
      512185 512185
 0.50 520154 519149 518147 515145 513144 511141 510141 508146
      508151 509156 510159 512160 513160 516158 518156 520154
 0.50 458937 458931 458925 457916 455908 453903 451901 445898
      438899 433899 428898 422897 417897 414898 415905 417914
      417924 415942 412951 409958 402970 398977 394982 387986
      373987 363989 349997 345003 353006 372998 386000 391002
      400014 407025 420022 435000 448969 450964 454952 458937
 0.50 282952 279965 281972 285974 292970 298962 304951 302937
      294933 290937 285945 282952
 1.00 452947 453939 453932 452918 449911 446909 442909 438910
      429912 424921 422933 420947 419953 417957 411966 407974
      404979 402984 405994 412001 416003 420004 425002 429999
      434992 439983 447961 452947
 1.50 450937 450928 449922 447920 440917 432919 428925 426935
      424944 422952 417969 414977 413981 412987 417992 420995
      424995 429992 434985 440970 447955 449948 450937
 2.00 427943 424972 428982 435976 443961 447940 446929 439923
      435923 432928 430933 427943

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 531025 533991 544964 547932 543892 538847 534840 527849
      519873 503907 488936 467968 452989 448008 466029 481043
      483063 485095 488128 498153 501164 504171 508192 511197
      515192 518180 522170 523164 522161 519153 517142 516134
      515124 516109 518104 520096 521084 522062 523051 527043
      530034 531025
 0.01 488890 490861 486828 481806 471789 457784 442792 421814
      405813 394801 385778 375751 366736 353732 347741 345760
      351790 358812 369819 377838 389849 396843 409853 419870
      417897 411910 402925 383927 353914 326896 318875 308834
      298813 296799 303789 290782 271777 254782 245795 245817
      249836 260850 270848 277854 279865 269896 259941 259974
      268005 285024 282036 279045 286058 296052 304036 311030
      325030 354025 374016 387015 389032 382045 376052 380058
      379077 386077 394070 404061 409053 408045 417030 419012
      414992 421976 442959 456945 477924 486903 488890
 0.01 450143 454142 457128 458106 456082 450067 444059 444044
      442035 437035 432050 429058 425061 424068 432075 436082
      431085 427092 436107 444116 441125 443135 450143
 0.25 541923 541916 540913 535911 531913 531907 532901 531897
      527892 522897 520902 514914 508924 501935 496947 490959
      488965 487972 492985 497998 499014 502020 507014 512998
      524977 537956 538944 539928 541923
 0.25 502111 503106 503101 503096 502091 502088 499087 498090
      497092 497095 497100 497105 498109 499113 500113 502111
 0.25 472863 471831 471824 470817 470810 469801 463795 458793
      454795 451799 443805 436813 432822 429831 427844 424853
      424859 424863 425876 424891 422903 418915 415924 412928
      409932 395940 386944 377945 355945 334949 324947 320946
      317942 311937 308934 306930 303926 302919 301911 302906
      304896 306884 306878 305872 303867 299865 296866 293868
      288875 283885 280896 276916 270960 269965 268970 271974
      276975 285974 294970 301966 307965 313966 316969 317973
      318984 318991 318999 319005 320011 323014 327015 333015
      338014 347013 355010 363007 371003 379996 388991 391990
      396990 401989 405985 426958 432948 438940 443935 450926
      459912 463903 466892 471875 472863
 0.25 295820 288814 280811 273809 269808 263808 256812 254816
      255821 260828 267833 271833 275831 274823 285822 291822
      295820
 0.25 273789 272787 271788 269788 267789 266790 265791 264792
      266794 268793 269792 271791 273789 273789
 0.50 511936 510934 509936 507938 505940 504943 502947 501949
      500952 499957 502957 503954 505952 506949 507946 509942
      510939 511936
 0.50 466846 467835 466824 464817 461810 458807 453805 449809
      445814 437824 435830 434837 429850 428855 428864 428883
      425899 422913 419924 415930 412935 408940 403943 395948
      384953 378954 371954 357952 351953 346956 342958 338963
      335968 332975 328988 328993 332997 340003 346006 354006
      359004 365001 382989 403978 411971 417962 432942 444923
      452912 454906 456899 458893 461886 464873 465859 466846
 0.50 302891 303885 302879 300876 297878 292885 290891 288900
      287908 287919 285925 282933 282943 282954 283958 285960
      294952 299945 300937 298928 295921 293913 294906 297899
      301893 302891
 1.00 457835 457826 455823 451823 448826 442832 440837 439842
      435850 434855 434861 433874 432885 431899 429909 426920
      424931 424934 427934 430931 435924 439915 444909 448899
      451889 456869 457856 457842 457835
 1.00 423942 423938 422937 418940 411945 405952 397956 389961
      380964 377967 374972 371976 368978 359982 353989 351993
      350996 351998 357998 360997 369993 376988 391977 398972
      405966 410958 416951 423942
 1.50 444887 444880 445872 445865 443859 441860 440863 440866
      439870 438875 437882 436887 437895 437898 439898 442894
      444889 444887
 1.50 399966 398964 396964 395965 393965 391966 389967 387967
      387968 386968 384970 383972 384973 386973 387972 388972
      389971 391971 392970 393970 395968 396968 396967 398966
      399966

$$





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