Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 26/0000 UTC THRU MAY 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE REGIME OF CAPPING OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TX
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN INFLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO ADVECTS QUITE WARM/MOISTURE LADEN AIR...AS THE GFS
FORECASTS 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS
BY 12Z THU AND BEYOND. AS HEIGHT/TEMPERATURES ALOFT FALL AND LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN...
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO,.  THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE TONIGHT AND DOWNSTREAM INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TX ON THU.
THE GFS SHOWS WELL DEFINED 850-700 MB CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST
TX WHERE THE MOISTURE PLUME IS INDICATED...SO ASCENT IS EXPECTED
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS.  THE HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF
LOCAL BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE LIFT STARTS A TREND OF INCREASING
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.
MANUAL QPF BLENDED THE GFS/12Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM AND WRF ARW
FOR QPF.

...CO ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS...

THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW AMPLITUDE 700 MB RIDGE ACRS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. ON THU...A 700 MB CIRCULATION CROSSES FROM CO ON TO THE
HIGH PLAINS.  LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...DRIVING A WARM FRONT NORTH.
AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DEVELOPS...THE MOISTURE
GETS LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT AND MODELS INCREASE SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE QUICKLY IN THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THU AFTERNOON...WITH
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO ADJACENT IA BY 00Z FRI.
MANUAL QPF USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/NSSL WRF AND WRF
NMMB FROM NCEP FOR TIMING/AMOUNTS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP IN THE TRAILING LOW LEVEL INFLOW AS THE 700 MB CONVERGENCE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES
PROVIDE FAVORABLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

...NORTHERN PLAINS / MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES/ OH VALLEY/TN
VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/ APPALACHIANS ....

THE MODELS SHOW AN ELONGATED 700 MB CIRCULATION DRIFTING NORTH
OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO MT...WITH AN INITIAL BURST OF LOW-MID LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN MN AND WI. WHILE THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTH...THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS OVER ND MOVES IN TANDEM...SO THE STEADIER
SHOWERS MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE BORDER INTO CANADA...AS DOES THE 700
MB THETA-E ADVECTION MAXIMA AND CONVERGENCE.

THE FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS 850-700 MB
VORTICES ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING LIFT.
MANUAL QPF BLENDED THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET QPF WITH LESS WEIGHTING ON
THE WRF ARW AND NSSL WRF.

THERE ARE A PAIR OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS CAUSING SHOWERS/STORMS
AS THEY INTERCEPT THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN AND DOWN IN
AR.  THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST
OVERNIGHT...UNTIL IT HITS AREAS OF LESSER INSTABILITY AND LESS
AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER/SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  SPORADIC UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST.

FURTHER NORTH...MID LEVEL WAR,M/MOIST ADVECTION AND A 700 MB WAVE
PRODUCE ASCENT AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO PA/NY ON THU.  MANUAL PROGS USED A CONSENSUS MULTI-MODEL
BLEND IN TIMING/AMOUNTS OF QPF WITHOUT A STRONG PREFERENCE GIVEN
TYPICAL SPREADS.

NORTHEAST WA/NORTHERN ID/NORTHWEST MT...

THE POOL OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS UTILIZED IN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS A LOW AMPLITUDE 700 MB WAVE CROSSES WA STATE
ON THU.  WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND GFS FCST ASCENT IN THE 700
MB LAYER WHERE LAPSE RATES REMAIN NEAR 7 DEG C/KM SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST WA AND CONTINUING INTO
NORTHERN ID AND NORTHWEST MT.

A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO BE ACROSS NEVADA
AND ADJACENT CENTRAL CA SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN LIMITED
ASCENT FORECAST BY THE MODELS. FOR QPF...WPC USED A COMBINATION OF
CONTINUITY...AND A MULTI-MODEL BLEND.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 544163 543157 540151 535136 531127 525126 521127 512125
      505124 499117 491110 484104 481102 480096 484091 488089
      492090 495092 498090 501088 504085 514071 515069 516065
      518056 520046 521038 524023 524016 526009 528002 528996
      528982 530965 530949 530935 530928 531921 531908 531891
      530877 528862 524839 523832 520826 516823 511817 507814
      504810 498804 485790 474778 463766 455761 453757 451754
      450750 446743 446739 442740 434738 429740 427743 419749
      407756 392769 386774 380782 373789 368797 364803 358810
      348820 337832 335844 334848 334854 341861 343863 344868
      340873 336878 334882 331885 327887 318891 312895 309896
      309899 307905 304915 301923 297931 294938 290945 283951
      277957 272962 266967 262970 260974 249980 245989 242001
      241007 241014 245014 248015 246024 245026 248029 260037
      264039 267038 275034 290028 298030 301032 306032 311034
      314032 321020 327013 330009 335006 342002 345001 351001
      362001 375002 377004 383005 385014 384021 382026 378035
      369047 363053 361056 360060 360069 362072 367077 370084
      372084 375087 376089 375093 372096 370096 369093 368090
      364087 361085 357085 353087 353093 358100 366106 368106
      373103 379099 382095 387093 390096 391099 390105 388108
      374114 364118 363116 360117 356113 351109 347106 344096
      342091 342089 340087 335086 335092 336099 341107 345116
      348123 350126 353125 363126 367124 372126 373136 373142
      375146 374151 371154 368155 365155 363154 361156 363161
      365164 361164 360166 365167 367166 368170 364174 360174
      356177 354180 355182 370195 376201 382206 388213 390215
      395217 404219 409220 413219 416215 417209 416204 414202
      411197 410191 412179
 0.01 412179 421163 422158 423151 422143 422135 423131 424129
      430125 433124 435128 434140 433147 435151 440157 443162
      450163 463159 469156 473157 480163 483166 484171 487177
      486190 487203 485208 480208 477212 478216 477223 481224
      485228 487231 487237 486243 487246 490253 496260 503265
      505268 507266 510259 518240 524222 528212 532203 537185
      544163
 0.01 483667 482657 480652 474644 460639 452633 444631 441632
      440635 440641 444652 450658 455666 456674 455679 451688
      443706 442713 443720 449721 460704 465695 470687 477685
      480681 480675 482670 483667
 0.01 466239 466232 467224 464221 461220 457221 454223 455228
      453233 452240 456242 459241 463241 466239
 0.01 454010 453006 449005 444003 439001 434002 429004 425004
      422006 422015 423022 427024 430024 435022 437020 440021
      446018 449015 454010
 0.01 444918 442916 440914 438914 434912 435916 435918 435923
      435928 436932 438930 440925 441923 443921 444918
 0.01 277793 277792 275791 275790 273791 272791 273793 271795
      271797 272799 274799 275797 275795 277793 277793
 0.01 274776 273772 271770 267768 264767 257768 252769 252767
      249767 244768 241771 235781 232788 227798 224807 226815
      229818 234822 235820 237822 239824 242822 244819 247821
      252832 255836 258838 262836 266833 266827 265823 258814
      260805 263800 264795 263784 270780 274776
 0.25 532173 529163 525155 518148 511147 506146 502147 499152
      499157 499163 501166 511170 514173 515177 516183 519187
      523186 525184 531176 532173
 0.25 517897 517889 517881 514866 510856 506846 502837 497830
      492825 485824 479827 472827 468828 464826 456823 452824
      448830 446833 442833 436832 429827 422820 416814 412813
      406813 398811 392807 387807 387811 389813 393813 395811
      395816 394819 390820 385826 381832 373843 365855 360861
      358868 359872 357878 356884 356887 355895 355904 352910
      346916 342916 338915 333918 322925 317929 312934 303943
      290958 285965 279971 267977 260982 255988 253993 252998
      252004 256009 263014 266016 269016 275012 283014 288016
      296020 301023 307022 313016 317007 319997 321987 322982
      324978 326973 331966 333965 335967 342978 346979 350979
      357977 361978 363980 369985 373987 378985 385979 389976
      391977 395988 398995 398000 397007 395014 391023 390027
      391034 394040 394043 391045 388048 386052 388059 391066
      395066 400061 401059 401055 398052 397049 396045 398039
      403033 405030 407022 410003 411997 413992 417985 420979
      422971 424961 425951 425940 423931 420924 415919 412907
      410903 409894 413887 417884 421883 428881 430881 433885
      436893 441900 451910 455915 460923 468934 473938 479941
      483943 485944 485948 483955 482964 483994 482006 480017
      482040 486059 488070 490079 496078 501074 504068 507060
      509047 512033 514019 515005 516949 514944 510942 504939
      499935 496926 494919 497916 499913 501910 502904 503903
      509903 513901 516900 517897
 0.25 472670 472668 471666 470666 469664 467664 465665 464668
      463670 463673 464675 464678 466679 467680 468679 469678
      470676 470674 471673 472672 472670
 0.25 475139 476137 476134 476133 475131 475129 475128 474126
      473125 472123 470123 468124 468125 467127 468128 469130
      470130 471131 472133 472136 474138 475139 475139
 0.25 483892 484884 484877 483871 479868 476866 472864 468866
      467871 468875 471880 473882 476887 478890 482894 483892
 0.25 473984 473979 472974 471972 469969 465970 464972 461974
      459976 458979 459982 460985 463986 465987 469988 471987
      473984
 0.25 460962 457956 452952 447949 443950 440954 438961 435968
      434976 438979 442975 445971 450967 455964 460962
 0.25 431094 431093 431092 429091 428091 428092 428094 429096
      431095 431094
 0.25 409108 410105 409103 407103 406105 405105 406105 407107
      409108 409108
 0.25 399148 399145 398145 396145 394145 393146 392146 391148
      391151 392153 393155 395155 397155 397154 398152 399150
      399149 399148
 0.25 396910 394910 394911 393913 394915 395913 396911 396910
 0.25 387799 386797 385799 384800 384802 385803 386802 386801
      387799
 0.25 382076 382074 381072 380072 378073 376076 377078 379079
      380078 381077 382076
 0.25 357830 357828 356826 354827 353828 352831 353832 354833
      355833 356832 357832 357830
 0.25 246805 246803 245801 244799 244797 242795 240794 238794
      237796 236798 237800 237802 237803 237804 238805 239807
      240807 241809 242810 242809 243808 244807 245806 246805
 0.50 510970 510965 506962 501957 494958 491960 490965 490990
      489002 488008 487012 485018 486024 488033 490043 491053
      493059 496062 499061 500057 504034 508011 508986 510970
 0.50 477917 475910 472902 467897 461891 456888 453894 454903
      458910 462916 469919 472920 475920 477917
 0.50 464859 464854 463849 462846 461844 459840 458837 455836
      455840 456843 457847 458852 458857 458859 460861 462861
      464859
 0.50 419954 418944 417935 412928 408922 401922 398928 391924
      388923 386920 382919 380921 378929 378936 379939 384943
      389949 393951 396951 398954 398960 399970 403987 407986
      409983 414978 417969 419961 419954
 0.50 390959 390954 388953 384953 382954 379956 377958 376961
      374963 373967 372970 375971 377969 379967 382965 384965
      387963 388961 390959
 0.50 381882 382877 382873 380869 377870 373875 371880 368885
      365890 363896 367900 371900 378898 379891 378886 379883
      381882
 0.50 364923 362916 357916 355917 350922 345928 341934 338941
      339947 341947 348945 355943 359938 361934 362930 364923
 0.50 321954 322949 322945 320940 316937 312939 298954 286968
      282973 278976 270980 261986 259990 258994 258002 261005
      265008 270007 277006 281008 291011 297013 301015 306015
      308011 309006 309999 310986 313974 317965 321954
 1.00 502990 502985 501983 500977 499975 497972 495975 495980
      496982 497987 498990 498995 500997 501993 502990
 1.00 412966 413961 413956 412952 411949 409948 407949 405953
      405956 404961 404966 404970 405973 408973 410970 412968
      412966
 1.00 310958 310953 308951 305951 303952 298958 296963 292968
      287972 283977 279981 273985 268988 264992 264995 268996
      280000 284001 287003 291002 289998 287996 288993 292989
      296983 299977 306966 310958

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