Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 311850
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 01/0000 UTC THRU NOV 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF INITIALLY
STRETCHING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BE AMPLIFYING INTO A DISTINCT
CLOSED LOW---INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA.  THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING
THIS DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SPREADING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN IN PAST EVENTS---SUPPORTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
THROUGH THE SIERRA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE/TRANSVERSE RANGE.  INLAND---THE WELL
DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE INLAND MOVING HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT STRONG UVVS IN THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PWS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN--WITH AN AXIS OF HEAVY TOTALS IN
THE EXPECTED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND FROM
NORTHWESTERN NV/FAR NORTHEAST CA INTO EAST CENTRAL OREGON.  FOR
QPF DETAILS---THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND PARALLEL GFS WERE USED.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
DURING SATURDAY.  H5 ANOMALIES OF UP TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE MEAN EXPECTED WITH THIS CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.  STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS AMPLIFYING CLOSED LOW AND STRENGTHENING NORTH NORTHWESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS---WITH EARLY SEASON HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST WV---SOUTHWEST VA---FAR EASTERN KY--FAR EASTERN TN AND
FAR WESTERN NC.  SEE THE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC

THE ASSOCIATED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND WITH THE
AMPLIFYING CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE PUSHING EASTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC---WITH MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN SC INTO
WESTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN NC.

NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND

FARTHER TO THE NORTH---LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRONG UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC--NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES EVIDENT WITH THE
QPF DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE LATEST MODELS ACROSS THIS
AREA---LEADING TO GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE.  THE HI RES ARW AND
THE IN HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE USED FOR THE
QPF DETAILS---WITH .25-.50"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS DEPICTED FROM
THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 531224 534204 536182 536177 535173 532165 526154 524148
      523139 518125 511118 504110 500107 495105 491106 487111
      483116 480124 474137 470141 466143 455143 450139 450131
      450123 452117 453109 451105 449103 444101 437099 432094
      427090 421092 418096 415102 413100 407089 402087 399092
      399096 397097 394091 393087 394083 396081 393080 390077
      390075 387068 380066 375063 371062 367063 363063 357062
      358067 358075 359080 362086 362094 365098 368101 371104
      376105 380105 383103 387104 391109 389113 386117 382116
      371119 368120 360120 357122 355119 354115 352114 349118
      347121 343122 340126 338128 339131 344134 347136 350135
      353135 358134 360135 359138 357143 353148 346157 351166
      347166 343165 336163 330160 321159 315158 307165 308180
      318198 326213 341230 353235 363234 371232 376226 380224
      387227 404240 409237 419232 424228 428226 438218 445211
      455202 462195 469190 477185 482180 487177 491175 490178
      488181 485186 487190 489192 493196 496198 503207 507212
      511217 519228 523232 526231 531224
 0.01 503281 503274 502267 499255 495245 491240 487238 484241
      481241 479238 476234 472234 472238 473240 476245 480248
      486249 492258 496268 501279 503281
 0.01 466657 465650 462649 455645 448640 444639 439640 421649
      416653 410659 398672 385685 372697 367702 361706 332729
      327734 321740 310752 307754 304758 301766 302772 303776
      309785 319798 325803 328810 332818 338826 348826 345835
      344839 344846 349851 351854 351858 357861 360860 365860
      373862 377864 382864 386868 389870 393874 395875 402878
      412877 418872 416871 412870 409866 409859 410854 414849
      421844 433834 444822 453806 456798 456791 454786 447782
      442783 438782 434775 431773 426773 411783 408782 406781
      405779 410769 413760 414753 418745 422740 424738 432733
      437725 448710 456695 465680 465666 466657
 0.01 230999 234003 240006 247009 252012 257016 261021 266025
      270025 271018 269011 266005 263000 259995 255990 252985
      251982 253981 262981 265980 264977 259974 254972 239969
      237965 232965
 0.25 531184 532178 532173 529168 525163 523161 520161 514160
      517167 520173 517174 517180 520185 525188 529186 531184
 0.25 509149 506146 503145 502144 498141 497141 495142 494145
      494150 495153 497155 499154 501152 504152 507151 509149
 0.25 477159 478155 475151 469152 463154 459154 455154 448152
      445150 444147 442141 443132 442128 440127 436131 432135
      429144 427150 429154 434159 428161 416161 413157 407156
      403152 398149 388141 376135 373136 372142 370144 372151
      377154 380156 379160 376165 373171 372175 374178 380181
      382185 380188 369182 362180 356180 351182 348181 347178
      344172 339168 333165 327165 329177 335188 334197 333208
      333214 335217 338218 352219 357222 364220 368216 374214
      386213 391216 395219 398225 400228 403228 407222 412219
      416215 421214 426213 432210 436206 441203 447201 451197
      460189 463185 466179 468172 472166 477159
 0.25 453671 450666 444666 433671 423678 414684 396701 386708
      381711 378716 376724 376731 376739 376746 376751 378755
      381761 384765 388769 391770 394769 399765 402761 405756
      409743 412737 415732 423724 428720 430716 437704 443694
      449682 451677 453671
 0.25 447180 447175 446170 443165 440168 438172 435175 432174
      430175 428180 432183 436186 439185 443183 447180 447180
 0.25 427793 423794 420797 418799 415804 414807 411812 409817
      411820 413821 416817 418813 421809 422806 425801 427796
      427793
 0.25 413172 413171 412169 411168 410167 408167 407168 406169
      405170 405172 407174 409175 410176 411176 412174 412173
      413172
 0.25 407114 406114 406112 407111 408110 408107 408105 407104
      406104 405105 404107 403108 403109 402111 403113 404114
      405114 406114 407114
 0.25 395798 395795 392792 388791 386793 381796 375793 360791
      355788 352782 352773 352768 353764 358760 362755 364752
      363747 360740 356736 351736 347738 342742 337747 333753
      330759 329768 332776 336793 337811 341817 347819 351818
      354819 355825 354828 349842 348844 350846 357843 363842
      372841 378838 384833 385830 385827 383823 383818 389806
      395798
 0.50 466162 466159 465157 463158 461159 458158 454159 453159
      451162 450163 452166 455169 457167 460166 463166 465164
      466162
 0.50 459185 459180 455180 451181 447183 435191 431190 426188
      422189 417188 413188 410186 407183 404184 401188 397191
      393193 392195 389193 382193 375188 366183 361182 356183
      353186 352190 354193 357197 360201 359204 355202 352198
      347191 345189 345182 342173 339171 335170 334172 340188
      339197 338203 339209 340212 345215 350216 355216 360215
      362210 362207 364206 368208 371211 374211 382211 388211
      393213 402218 405217 409214 415210 445197 454191 459185
 0.50 436688 436684 435681 430680 423685 414691 409698 398710
      389715 386718 384722 381732 382741 383753 383759 386763
      388765 394764 400758 404750 406740 407728 409724 412720
      417714 424709 433694 436688
 0.50 439151 440149 440146 439144 439143 437141 435141 434143
      432145 432147 433150 434151 436152 438152 439151
 0.50 435169 435167 434166 433165 431164 429164 428164 426165
      425167 424169 425172 427173 427172 428172 430171 432171
      433171 434171 435169
 0.50 396177 395173 391170 388168 383167 379168 376171 375174
      380176 382179 386182 390184 392181 396178 396177
 0.50 375810 375805 374801 368797 363795 359796 355795 347798
      343801 340807 343812 345814 349813 355811 358812 360816
      358823 353835 352843 357840 367831 372831 375826 372824
      371820 373813 375810
 0.50 353753 353747 350745 345746 340752 336758 335767 336778
      338782 341784 343783 345779 346771 347763 351756 353753
 1.00 425201 425198 422196 418195 415194 412193 408194 406195
      406197 407199 410202 412202 414202 418202 420202 423201
      425201
 1.00 400739 400737 400735 399733 398733 397732 395731 394731
      393731 392732 391734 390736 390737 390739 391741 391742
      392743 393745 394745 395746 397746 399744 400742 400741
      400739
 1.00 391206 387202 382197 378194 374191 369187 362184 357187
      357192 358194 362198 369200 374203 379206 384207 391206
 1.00 354209 353208 353206 352205 351204 350203 349201 349200
      348198 346200 345201 345202 345204 345205 345207 346208
      347209 348210 349211 351211 352211 353210 354209
 1.00 360830 361827 360826 359828 358828 357830 357831 356832
      355834 355835 355837 356837 357836 358834 358833 359832
      360830 360830
 1.50 380201 378200 377196 375194 374193 371191 369190 365188
      364189 362188 361190 362193 363195 366197 370198 373199
      376200 378201 380201

$$





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