Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 201104
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
602 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 20/1200 UTC THRU FEB 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...LARGE SCALE HEAVY RAIN / FLOOD EVENT...

...EASTERN PLAINS / MID-UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES / UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...

A SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT SHOULD SPARK GREAT CONCERN OVER HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO COME INTO PLACE, WITH LARGE SCALE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH, BLOCKED BY A 594 DM
RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC, ALLOWING FOR PROLONGED, ELONGATED MOISTURE
TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM THE CARIBBEAN BEFORE ENCOUNTERING A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION. MOISTURE
QUALITY LOOKS MORE LIKE MARCH OR APRIL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
TAPERING ONLY TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WOULD REPRESENT MAX VALUES FOR LATE FEBRUARY PER GEFS M-CLIMATE
DATA. EXPECT REPEATED WAVES OF MODERATE RAINFALL, AND EMBEDDED
INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WED/THU IN SOME AREAS,
RESULTING IN A WIDE SWATH THAT WILL INDUCE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
AND MAY OVERWHELM SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS. ESPECIALLY CONCERNED IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS / LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE GREATEST
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHERE DEEP
FROST DEPTH/FROZEN GROUND AND SOME SNOW MELT WATER WILL EXACERBATE
THE RUNOFF/SHORT-TERM FLOODING POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE QPF WAS NOT OVERLY COMPLICATED ON THE LARGE SCALE
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DRIVING THE SITUATION, OF GROWING
CONCERN PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS THE INCREASED W-E SPREAD WITH THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WHERE THE CAMS (INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES MEANS) ARE
TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN LIGHT OF
(MOST LIKELY) SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. FOR DAY 1, WPC UTILIZED A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF, IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE QPF, AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, WHICH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAX QPF AXIS A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST THAN THE ENSEMBLE OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. THIS IDEA
REPRESENTS A RELATIVELY SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM CONTINUITY
(PREVIOUS FORECAST), AS GIVEN THE HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED PATTERN
(DEEP-LAYER S-SW FLOW) ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, FEEL MORE
CONFIDENT IN A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE RESULT IS A
CONTINUAL BROAD SWATH OF 1.0 TO 2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TEXAS TO MICHIGAN, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
(AREAL-AVERAGE 3+ INCHES) FOCUSED FROM NORTHEAST TX-EASTERN OK
INTO NORTHWEST AR AND SOUTHERN MO, WHERE MODEST DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES. OVER
THESE AREAS, PER THE MAJORITY OF HIGH-RES CAMS, LOCALIZED 24 HOUR
TOTALS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY -- AND AS SUCH WPC MAINTAINED
A BROAD MODERATE RISK AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE DAY 1
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK, LARGELY SIMILAR TO THE AREA ADVERTISED
IN YESTERDAY`S DAY 2 ERO.

THE OTHER MODERATE RISK AREA WAS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST (EASTERN IL, NORTHWEST IN, AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI) BASED
ON THE ANTECEDENT HEAVIER RAINFALL/LOWERING FFG VALUES THROUGH
EARLY TUE AND THUS HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF 3-6 HOURLY QPF>FFG
EXCEEDANCE.


...ELSEWHERE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OUT WEST BENEATH THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH. THE SAME BLEND USED FOR THE EASTERN U.S. WAS APPLIED HERE
AS WELL. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO... SEE QPFHSD FOR
DETAILS.



DAYS 2/3...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO A REFORMING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR QPF ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING DAY 2. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF THE REFORMING TROUGH PROVIDES LIFT OVER
AN ARCTIC FRONT FOR QPF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. DURING DAY 3...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES INTO
THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...PROVIDING LIFT FOR QPF OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA RANGE IN CA...AS WELL AS THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST. THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO
THE TROUGH (ESPECIALLY DURING DAY 2)...BUT THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD CONCERNING HOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REFORMS DURING DAY 3.
IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES...THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 2...
THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA...OFF THE COAST OF WA/OR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA
DURING DAY 2. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS FAIRLY
MODEST...AND THE BULK OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
REMAINS OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
LIFT (AUGMENTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW) TO PRODUCE AREAS OF 0.10 TO 0.25
INCHES OF QPF OVER SOUTHWEST OR/NORTHWEST CA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTHWEST NV INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA RANGE IN CA.

FURTHER SOUTH...SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE REFORMING LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES DURING DAY 2. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...UPSLOPE FLOW IS
AUGMENTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDING
TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CO ROCKIES. MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS
NOT ROBUST (AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 0.25
INCHES)...BUT THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOCUS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CO INTO NORTHERN NM. THERE
WAS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF IN THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SAN JUANS IN CO.

DAY 3...
THE SECOND PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDES MORE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER OR/CA DURING DAY 3. A 15 TO 20
KNOT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS 0.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR INTO CENTRAL CA...AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES FOCUSED
ON THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. THERE WAS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR
0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
RANGE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
RANGE. THERE WAS ALSO ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.5O INCHES OF QPF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SAN GABRIEL AND SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN CA.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST STATES...MAINLY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DAY 3. WHILE MOISTURE IS NOT IN GREAT SUPPLY (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINS NEAR 0.25 INCHES)...UPSLOPE FLOW
FOCUSES THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR AXES OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AZ...THE SOUTHERN WASATCH IN UT...AS
WELL AS THE SAN JUAN RANGE IN CO.


...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 2. SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES CROSSES THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING
DAY 3. EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD INTERACT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR QPF EACH DAY. WHILE THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ON DAY 2...THERE IS INCREASING MODEL SPREAD WITH
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT AFFECTS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 3. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS
BASED MORE CLOSELY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET.

DAY 2...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY ON DAY 2
REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW TRANSPORTS
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO EASTERN KS/EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHWEST IA
BEFORE 22/12Z. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT INTERACTING WITH
THE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF IN
THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS. LOCAL 0.40 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN KS...PER THE MOST RECENT 00Z ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 3...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CROSSES THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES ON DAY 3. A 25 KNOT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TRANSPORTS 0.50 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHICH BECOMES LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY ACROSS MN/WI/UP OF MI. THE BEST LIFT OCCURS BETWEEN
23/00Z AND 23/06Z OVER EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...WHERE AN AREA OF
0.25/0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED, THIS WAS SURROUNDED BY A MUCH
LARGER AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
SD ACROSS IA INTO MUCH OF THE UP OF MI.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN A FAST MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SEND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY OVER A SLOW MOVING FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING DAY 2. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL FEED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENING...HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE AREA RISING SLOWLY...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTH DURING DAY 3. AGAIN...DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD
FEED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT PRODUCES HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING
DAYS 1 AND 3. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING DAY 2...SO FOR THE MOST
PART...THE WPC QPF FOLLOWED THAT MODEL BLEND,

DAY 2...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE FAST MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW RIDES OVER
A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO EAST
TX DURING DAY 2. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 35/45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT 1.50/1.75 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS NEAR FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN) ACROSS NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR KTYR OF SOUTH OF KM89 IN AR...AND THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO FUEL CONVECTION THAT PRODUCES AN AXIS
OF 3.50 TO 4.25 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN THESE LOCATIONS. THE AXIS IS
JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE FRONT SLOWS AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO IT. DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF A 170 KNOT JET STREAK EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND 850-300 MB MEAN
WINDS ALIGNING WITH THE PROPAGATION VECTORS COULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO DROP THIS FAR
SOUTH...RESULTING IN NEARLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN THE
BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. BECAUSE OF THIS...A
MODERATE RISK WAS EXTENDED NORTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL AR FOR DAY 2.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFO MEG...THEY INDICATED THAT THERE ARE
STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS NEAR FLOOD...AND WHILE THE QPF AMOUNTS
HERE ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS NORTHEAST TX OR SOUTH CENTRAL
AR...THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A
MODERATE RISK HERE.

THE MODERATE RISK IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA ON
DAY 2...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO FAR SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN
INTO SOUTHWEST OH. THERE WAS A GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR 1.00 TO 2.00
INCHES OF QPF HERE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN KY INTO
FAR SOUTHERN IL. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW
AS 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KY AND WESTERN
OH...HENCE THE PLACEMENT OF A SLIGHT RISK HERE FOR DAY 2.

DAY 3...
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CA
DEEPENS THE REFORMING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
STALL EARLY ON DAY 3...AND POSSIBLY RETURN AS THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THERE WAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD...BUT THERE WAS STILL SOME SPREAD
CONCERNING JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT WOULD GET. THE 00Z NAM
APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE FRONT...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
MODEST HEIGHT RISES. THERE WAS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET...AND THAT
PLACEMENT WAS USED AS AN AXIS FOR THE HIGHEST QPF ON DAY 3.

THE PERSISTENT 35/45 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUMP 1.25/1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST TX/FAR
SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR AND SOUTH CENTRAL MO. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST TX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AR...AND MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER
NORTHEAST ALONG THE PROJECTED LOCATION OF THE FRONT. AN AXIS OF
1.75 TO 2.25 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED ON THIS AXIS...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...AS WELL
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST TX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AR.
A SLIGHT RISK WAS PLACED HERE FOR DAY 3...TO COVER THE FLOOD
THREAT. A MODERATE RISK WAS CONSIDERED FOR THE AXIS OF THE MAXIMUM
QPF...AND PART OF THE THOUGHT PROCESS INCLUDED THE HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY 2 COULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SATURATED SOILS.

HOWEVER...AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFOS FWD/SHV/LZK/SGF...WE
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO ENSURE THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WOULD
INDEED SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR DAY 3. IF THE FRONTAL POSITION
IS BETTER ALIGNED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
IS OBSERVED OVER THE REGION DURING DAY 1...A MODERATE RISK COULD
BE ISSUED FOR DAY 3 ACROSS NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST AR/SOUTH CENTRAL
MO IN LATER FORECASTS.


HURLEY/HAYES


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML




THIS DISCUSSION WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED-CASE FEB 26, 2018.  THE
LISTING OF ISOHYET POINTS CONTAINED BELOW WILL ALSO BE ELIMINATED
FROM THE PRODUCT FEB 26, 2018.  ISOHYET GRID INFORMATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED IN A VARIETY OF BINARY FORMATS AND MADE
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE WPC GIS PAGE.

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 397304 402304 407306 414304 418303 421299 423292 424285
      424273 423268 425266 428267 445265 454265 462264 471269
      474267 477263 479249 481244 482239 479228 477223 477215
      475206 472201 469199 464197 461194 455186 449180 445181
      443185 433203 427208 424219 424224 423232 414235 402245
      396245 391243 379239 373236 368237 365240 360248 358254
      359260 379289 383295 385298 389302
 0.01 530175 530169 528164 526160 523157 517150 511144 504137
      501136 497136 495138 497144 501152 505155 507159 510162
      514164 520170 523174 528176 530175
 0.01 528721 527716 525709 522699 519689 515678 511668 505659
      497646 491638 485635 477632 472633 469633 458637 455638
      452636 448639 445642 441645 441652 440658 437666 435676
      434685 433691 433696 434710 434723 433726 430729 430734
      429738 425743 423748 422762 422769 421775 418785 412805
      408814 402820 391831 386838 381845 376851 371858 362870
      350886 339900 326890 340878 348873 353868 363854 365852
      367848 364847 360847 343853 340854 338852 336851 334848
      329842 326842 323844 321848 318851 311857 309859 306859
      302857 296857 293858 289862 287866 288879 289888 289891
      284893 282896 283899 285902 289904 297908 301913 305914
      310914 322916 326917 328918 328920 326923 322925 311926
      305931 299932 295931 292935 290939 288945 287949 286954
      281955 275958 277976 271981 265985 261987 256988 252988
      249987 243985 240989 235987 231988 231993 234997 236000
      241001 245004 247008 250016 251020 254022 259029 264031
      268032 278033 283033 287032 292027 298021 300018 302022
      309024 318022 325015 328010 326005 325000 326995 330992
      333991 354989 361984 368980 381970 393961 403950 414937
      427923 430918 434916 441921 448925 454930 457935 459938
      459942 458957 455961 454966 451974 448984 446988 443992
      441002 442005 447005 455005 462001 471997 481992 484991
      487987 491978 499960 503949 506944 507940 514923 514916
      515910 515895 516889 516883 514872 514869 515866 518863
      523857 526854 526852 526842 525833 527830 526825 526810
      525805 526802 526795 525778 526772 525766 524750 524742
      524736 526727 528721
 0.01 489836 487834 487833 487831 485829 485826 484824 482825
      481827 480827 479830 478832 478835 479837 480839 481841
      483841 484841 486841 488838 489836
 0.01 477157 478152 476149 475146 473145 470143 468142 466142
      466145 467150 469152 470155 472156 473159 475159 477157
 0.01 450112 448107 444103 439095 436095 434097 429093 427091
      424091 426096 427101 421102 418104 415106 413102 413097
      412094 409089 405088 404083 403079 404075 408073 412071
      409067 409063 414066 414061 411061 409059 406053 403052
      405049 408047 410045 410041 410038 407036 402035 391038
      387040 383044 381049 381055 385060 382062 379062 368060
      366061 364064 364068 369072 371076 372082 373085 376089
      382091 385095 392087 396090 400090 403093 404098 403102
      399108 398110 394111 389113 386116 383119 382126 387126
      391122 402127 408128 411125 415123 420127 427137 433148
      438147 441142 437132 432123 434115 435112 438110 445116
      450112
 0.01 392059 391058 390058 388059 389060 391060 392059
 0.01 376751 374749 370747 364752 360755 355757 352759 346760
      341764 345766 350767 352775 355775 359772 365767 370761
      375753 376751
 0.01 372053 372050 369050 367052 363052 361054 359054 356055
      357058 359058 363056 365054 368055 370055 372053
 0.01 363818 363812 360809 356810 353813 348820 342827 337833
      334836 333841 335845 339846 345846 348843 355838 358835
      361832 362827 362821 363818
 0.01 344089 344082 342080 339080 336081 332080 329078 325078
      317077 310078 297082 293085 289089 289093 290096 292098
      296099 309096 313094 320095 326094 329093 332094 332099
      334100 337102 341102 340097 340094 341091 344089
 0.01 338060 337057 336055 332054 329054 327053 325053 323055
      321057 319061 319063 319065 321065 323063 325061 328060
      332061 335061 338060
 0.01 330874 328872 327870 326869 326868 324867 323868 321868
      319869 318870 318873 319874 320875 320877 321879 322881
      323883 325881 325880 327878 328876 330874
 0.01 308841 308831 302825 295820 289814 286810 288807 285804
      281802 278800 275797 270789 265783 262778 260778 258782
      259788 261792 262795 261798 256799 252801 252805 258804
      263804 266805 269808 273810 281825 293837 300841 307844
      308841
 0.01 262852 261846 260840 255830 249822 244814 240803 237799
      236804 236808 237814 240818 241823 244835 248847 252857
      257857 260857 261854 262852
 0.25 513707 513697 511689 509684 506680 499675 493666 455658
      453663 453671 454686 453693 451697 445707 443713 443721
      438731 442733 442738 441741 434749 433756 433764 432777
      430789 425800 419813 414823 408833 402841 388856 375871
      360889 346906 334923 320937 312942 303949 300956 295959
      286964 284969 284976 279987 282992 286995 293994 297997
      308001 313999 317995 326988 334982 344978 355977 365974
      373969 382961 390952 403934 416919 422910 427902 439881
      444868 450856 457833 463809 467797 469781 474753 478726
      481721 483719 486720 488725 490731 489740 489745 490750
      493754 498752 504747 506742 511729 513719 513707
 0.25 469240 467234 466224 466216 464213 460211 448213 440224
      433238 429243 425249 421252 418254 418259 422258 427256
      434257 440256 451252 456249 462246 469240
 0.25 255002 253001 251000 249999 247999 246998 244997 243998
      244998 245000 246000 247001 248002 249002 251003 253003
      255003 255002
 0.50 478706 477699 475697 471696 468696 464698 461700 455705
      452708 450711 450714 451718 451722 449726 452728 453732
      452735 450738 446741 441748 439756 438767 437777 434788
      430798 423815 415830 406843 380870 370880 364887 360892
      339921 328933 318944 306957 294969 292973 291978 292982
      294985 299990 303993 308993 317990 324985 332980 339976
      347974 357974 362971 370967 376960 382952 393938 412914
      418907 423899 427890 431881 438865 444846 449826 458808
      461799 463790 462780 462769 465758 466752 466745 466737
      466732 468727 471723 476716 478706
 0.50 453243 454240 453240 451240 449240 448241 447242 445243
      444245 445246 446246 447246 448246 450244 452244 453243
 0.50 440246 441244 441242 440240 439239 437240 435242 434244
      434245 435247 435248 437248 438248 439246 440246
 1.00 447807 445801 440800 435801 432805 426817 421830 416840
      410848 402857 394865 386872 378879 374882 369886 362896
      335931 322946 314955 311960 309966 308978 312983 316984
      321983 326980 337973 347969 355965 367962 376954 382946
      388936 394926 402917 408908 414900 421889 426877 431866
      435855 441826 445817 447807
 1.50 440810 438806 435807 432811 432820 431826 427831 424835
      421840 416849 410857 395872 386878 379884 370891 364901
      359908 352915 346924 339932 325946 319954 316959 314964
      313972 315977 319979 325978 343966 359956 379946 384936
      389928 395919 401909 408901 412892 414886 416881 423872
      429862 431857 432851 433836 433828 436823 439816 440810
 2.00 428857 428854 427851 426845 424843 421846 416854 411861
      406868 402878 401882 402885 406885 408882 414875 419867
      424862 428857
 2.00 394885 394882 392883 388888 384891 378894 373897 370901
      367907 362912 357914 354917 346927 331943 324950 320955
      317961 316968 316972 318974 322975 325973 331971 350959
      358952 362948 366943 377922 382911 387899 391892 394885
 3.00 370925 368922 364924 357930 352935 345940 339946 334954
      334957 336957 339956 345952 352946 359941 364934 368927
      370925

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 529215 530207 529201 529197 528194 524192 523188 519188
      514189 510189 505190 490197 484201 477207 477210 479211
      484213 490215 492220 492226 490231 489233 487234 483231
      478230 473231 470233 467233 462231 453233 448233 444235
      439236 436235 435233 436230 440227 456216 455213 452213
      447211 444210 444206 446201 453179 457169 458161 461155
      463149 462143 452136 446142 441144 437141 435142 435148
      439158 444165 445171 442176 433178 429182 426182 426177
      432171 431166 428162 425152 423148 419147 415148 413152
      410156 411162 413165 411168 410166 407167 404170 402178
      398191 392195 388194 384191 377186 368182 365181 363183
      364186 381202 389208 395213 402220 405223 408224 408227
      406234 404239 404242 405245 408249 404254 402258 406261
      412261 413262 412268 414277 416281 420284 428291 433294
      436297 447301 465290 471287 475285 480285 487280 488278
      486272 485260 489259 493261 498265 500269 504272 507272
      509265 509259 509251 509244 512241 524227 529215
 0.01 503694 503688 502681 500672 496662 494657 492650 490646
      487643 480639 476638 473640 468643 465646 458649 454649
      454645 456635 453631 451629 447630 445632 442639 436654
      430668 425686 422696 421701 419707 414726 413732 412735
      410739 410745 410753 406758 395767 393766 388766 389758
      395743 396740 396735 397731 395726 394724 391724 387726
      384729 381734 379744 379750 378754 376772 375782 375786
      373787 368788 366793 362799 356805 351809 339817 332822
      325825 317830 314832 313836 314841 319843 326850 327855
      325857 321863 310871 308873 303873 295877 291883 289891
      289902 289907 287910 273918 266923 263927 261931 255937
      252945 252950 254950 259955 268962 272968 271972 269977
      265983 262990 262000 266005 271011 277016 281018 286019
      294020 317021 319019 324019 325023 328025 336024 343022
      345021 349021 348028 352029 354027 358020 376995 383989
      390983 406976 412973 417967 425956 429949 432940 432935
      431932 426926 419921 417919 414918 409919 407921 405926
      401927 394923 393922 389925 378942 375948 372951 369952
      364952 361953 357954 354955 352955 352953 357948 363943
      367936 371929 374922 381906 390893 397884 400881 402876
      410864 415858 420852 440830 444824 448819 451816 453811
      457804 475769 480762 483754 487746 489738 500708 503700
      503694
 0.01 457685 456677 454671 453665 452663 450664 446673 444683
      440692 436700 433708 432716 434719 436718 441711 446704
      451696 454692 456687 457685
 0.01 444111 444108 444106 444104 444103 442103 441103 440103
      439105 437105 435107 435109 435110 437110 438110 440111
      442111 443111 444111
 0.01 414071 414066 412063 411061 407060 400059 395056 385048
      380046 374046 360049 356053 352055 338053 333051 327053
      328058 329061 332063 333064 337065 342070 336073 336076
      340076 341080 339082 339087 337091 337096 339098 342098
      342094 344091 350088 357089 360092 364093 373087 383092
      385095 389091 397083 403072 406070 410073 414071
 0.01 343180 345169 342167 339168 332164 329161 324160 320157
      315156 309155 307157 311159 314163 316166 321167 328172
      333175 336178 338181 341181 343180
 0.01 350081 351079 352077 351076 349075 347075 345076 345079
      347081 348083 350081 350081
 0.01 278803 278799 275798 270796 258794 256791 254790 250794
      249797 247799 244795 241797 241801 241807 242814 242819
      242823 243826 244829 247830 249824 250818 252811 254808
      260805 267803 273803 278803
 0.25 435789 434786 432783 428782 426784 421792 418802 417806
      416806 410804 404803 398800 385796 378801 372807 363818
      352825 348830 346833 347839 347849 344860 338871 330883
      326888 321894 311906 307911 303916 295926 289941 281955
      278962 277968 275976 274981 277983 281984 284986 286989
      287993 291994 292999 293005 292011 294013 298014 305016
      311013 312010 312005 310997 313989 318982 323976 332968
      341957 358931 366921 374909 381897 390881 396870 403857
      410843 420829 427819 430811 432802 435789
 0.25 395963 392956 390957 387960 383965 378970 373976 369981
      368987 371988 377985 382979 386974 389968 391968 394965
      395963
 0.25 381081 382074 382068 378065 375063 370061 367061 368066
      371069 373073 374078 377082 380083 381081
 0.25 383056 383054 382054 381052 379052 377052 376051 374050
      372052 371052 372053 374053 375054 377055 379056 381057
      382057 383056
 0.25 362069 363067 363065 362065 361063 359063 357064 357065
      356067 357068 358069 360070 362070 362069
 0.25 358972 355970 353969 352970 349971 347974 345976 343978
      342980 342984 344986 348985 350985 353982 354980 355978
      356974 358972
 0.50 406827 403823 396823 391821 387816 383816 380820 374829
      367837 364844 363847 363851 361857 358861 351868 342875
      334885 322901 316910 308920 301927 296937 290946 284957
      282962 281967 282972 286975 290980 292985 296999 299010
      301012 304011 305008 304005 303002 303999 304992 308987
      313983 320976 326969 342950 354934 368914 379895 391873
      396864 400853 405838 406832 406827
 0.50 387804 388801 387799 386799 385801 383802 381804 381805
      380806 379807 378809 378810 378811 379812 380812 381811
      382811 383809 384809 385807 385806 387804 387804
 0.50 379078 380076 380074 380073 379071 378070 378069 376068
      375067 374066 373066 372066 373067 374068 374070 375071
      376073 377076 377078 378078 379078 379078
 0.50 355835 356832 355830 354830 353832 352833 351834 351835
      351837 352838 353837 354837 355835 355835
 1.00 395846 395840 393837 389840 384841 374854 363868 350879
      345885 339893 335900 330906 317917 307930 301935 299940
      298947 294954 290960 292970 295973 297975 297978 300985
      306982 313978 321971 330960 335952 341945 351932 362917
      370902 379886 387870 392857 395846
 1.50 384866 384860 381859 373862 370867 365872 359876 354882
      347893 331917 326922 321923 319926 315931 308934 304939
      303945 302949 295960 294962 295966 301966 305978 310974
      317971 323967 327962 343938 347932 353926 360914 367900
      370893 373887 379875 382870 384866
 2.00 374875 375871 373867 368872 361879 355890 348899 335918
      321936 317939 311942 307945 303949 303955 307959 306964
      308966 312966 319965 323965 330956 336946 342936 350928
      356919 361906 365894 374875
 3.00 354916 354908 351908 344915 337922 332931 329936 328941
      322949 323953 324954 329954 332949 333943 339936 346928
      352920 354916

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 501201 500196 498196 494198 491199 487201 483204 481206
      483210 487211 490209 494207 497205 500202 501201
 0.01 493248 493243 493239 493235 492232 488228 480226 469232
      464231 460225 458219 455215 451212 444210 440206 432204
      426203 423202 422200 423198 426193 424188 424183 426180
      431175 423146 429118 419116 419112 421112 426111 434112
      439111 451107 455103 455093 447091 440092 437090 431089
      426086 424087 424091 427096 426098 421100 417101 415099
      411098 409095 409086 411078 415070 416066 416059 416055
      415052 410047 404046 363050 357052 354053 353056 357060
      359062 358065 356067 361072 367075 370077 370082 368087
      366090 359098 352109 348110 345114 345121 347127 346133
      347139 350145 353146 356145 361141 367137 374137 378138
      382139 379141 377141 373142 372146 364152 357156 360161
      365163 372165 376164 379158 383153 384161 385169 386179
      389185 391191 386188 379186 376183 363180 356179 351181
      349184 349188 352192 365199 377206 384210 392213 396216
      401218 406220 408223 407226 402226 398224 392225 385223
      383226 384228 388232 394236 398241 389242 383238 376237
      375240 376242 381247 384249 386252 389264 391268 394271
      400271 403268 408265 413267 426268 434269 441271 449274
      455272 458269 461268 462265 457256 459253 462253 467253
      472252 480254 484255 489252 493248
 0.01 505895 505890 503886 501880 497870 494865 489855 484851
      481851 478849 475842 471835 467829 465826 462826 457825
      450831 446846 445855 443861 441864 439867 436869 431870
      428868 428864 426858 427854 429831 430818 429798 427791
      427781 427773 425770 426765 427748 427729 428709 426699
      424694 422690 418686 412685 400692 393699 388709 376737
      372744 368745 367748 363766 356775 351784 338808 345811
      344818 345829 343838 338854 333869 325879 320883 318890
      316895 313900 307901 302905 299910 296910 295907 292899
      288893 287892 285896 281903 279910 280916 293917 285925
      266936 261940 259945 268956 274958 277960 275964 269969
      261972 258976 257978 259982 263983 268986 273989 267993
      262995 259000 260009 265011 274012 279012 283014 301017
      309019 313019 315022 319026 323027 329026 336025 349022
      354020 359016 362015 365012 367010 370010 377024 381026
      386027 395029 406035 412036 416031 418026 421024 425023
      429020 432015 443007 448004 453001 457996 461989 469974
      474969 479962 483952 487947 490945 493944 496940 497931
      501914 503903 505895
 0.01 448158 447153 445149 442144 441141 439136 436133 435138
      435145 434150 436155 441157 446158 448158
 0.01 421131 421126 420121 418119 415118 413120 409120 406122
      407124 405128 401128 398129 396131 397136 399138 402139
      407140 413139 417136 421131
 0.01 392105 392103 393101 392098 392096 390095 389095 389096
      387097 386097 385099 385100 384101 383104 384106 386107
      387108 389108 391107 392105
 0.01 345182 347172 343165 334163 327160 319157 313156 313161
      317166 322171 329175 336178 341180 343183 345182
 0.01 287808 285802 284796 275795 270796 266795 257799 247804
      244809 243813 244816 247813 249808 250806 252805 265803
      274806 280807 285807 287808
 0.25 467917 467900 464899 463903 463913 460914 457912 453906
      450899 448891 447889 446891 443894 442897 439904 436911
      435918 437923 445933 451937 454944 456945 459943 462937
      465930 467922 467917
 0.25 432239 432236 430236 429235 427235 425235 423236 422236
      421236 419237 419238 421240 422241 424242 426242 428242
      429240 430240 432239 432239
 0.25 419771 419759 416749 414744 412741 404740 401739 397739
      393743 390751 390760 382772 378781 373787 371792 373800
      375808 373815 370817 367825 364834 358841 352852 347866
      345873 340881 334897 333900 334902 331908 323919 319926
      316933 308948 303959 300967 296971 292977 290982 291987
      293991 292997 293003 296006 306011 315013 322011 327006
      334003 340999 346993 350988 355984 359978 360974 362973
      369971 375966 381961 386952 388946 389942 391940 396936
      400929 401925 400920 401912 403904 405892 409877 411869
      412859 413852 410844 409838 409831 410819 415806 418790
      419771
 0.25 424938 424935 424933 423931 423930 421929 419929 418931
      418933 419935 419937 419938 421940 423941 424940 424938
      424938
 0.25 401206 399203 396200 388196 384193 380191 371188 365185
      361184 358183 355184 356187 363191 372196 378202 385207
      395211 400210 401206
 0.25 394082 394077 390076 383076 381069 378067 375066 374069
      376073 377082 381083 381089 378090 374096 373098 375099
      378098 381095 383092 387086 393083 394082
 0.25 381124 381122 379122 377123 377124 375125 375126 374127
      373129 374131 376130 377130 378129 379128 380126 381124
 0.25 369124 368122 366121 365120 363119 361120 361121 362123
      363123 364124 366125 368125 369124
 0.25 356120 355118 354117 352116 352117 352119 352120 354120
      356120 356120
 0.25 342173 344171 343169 343168 341167 339168 338168 337168
      335168 334169 335170 337171 338172 339172 340173 342173
      342173
 0.50 413779 413772 412767 403767 401767 398770 393779 388785
      385786 381785 376789 375792 375796 378803 380810 384810
      386813 386820 386826 384830 381832 377831 373832 371835
      368842 366845 363848 357853 355857 356859 360853 365852
      367856 364864 360870 353881 357882 358885 352892 349894
      346897 340904 336910 333917 341921 321948 317953 312957
      308969 303975 301978 301983 310980 312984 312986 309987
      304990 300996 298002 306005 313007 319008 322006 329002
      336996 340990 340985 348974 352966 357959 363952 369946
      377934 385922 389916 393908 400889 405874 407866 406863
      403861 398861 396862 393860 393853 395844 399833 405817
      410804 413779
 0.50 393205 392204 391202 390201 389201 387200 386199 384198
      382197 380199 381202 382202 383203 385204 386205 387205
      388206 390206 391206 392206 393205
 1.00 406799 406796 406794 407792 406789 405788 403788 401789
      401790 400792 400793 399795 398796 398798 398800 398802
      398805 398807 400809 401808 403807 403806 404804 405804
      405801 406799 406799
 1.00 397883 397878 393878 388885 383891 378893 375893 372892
      371890 373886 373879 375871 378864 379860 376859 373868
      370875 368884 365892 363896 365899 359913 348925 343930
      339934 321960 318962 319966 321970 325972 337966 350956
      358945 362938 368931 376920 381914 385907 387898 392892
      395888 397883
 1.00 324999 325997 325995 325992 324991 322991 321992 321993
      319994 319996 318999 318000 319001 319003 320003 322003
      323001 324999 324999
 1.50 373907 374905 374902 374900 373899 371899 370900 370902
      370905 370907 371909 371910 372909 373908 373907
 1.50 369918 365916 361920 354925 346932 339941 333952 330957
      329960 331962 336962 341958 348951 354939 361931 368920
      369918
 2.00 352934 352933 350934 348936 348939 348938 350937 351936
      352935 352934
 2.00 346945 346943 345942 343943 341945 341946 340947 339948
      338949 337951 337952 337953 339952 340952 341951 342949
      343949 344947 345947 346945

$$





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