Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 052041
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
440 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 06/0000 UTC THRU JUL 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT REMAINS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING OUT OF THE TN VALLEY...ALONG WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS FROM FAR EASTERN KY NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN AND CENTRAL WV.  MEANWHILE AMPLIFYING EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIRECT DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL MID ATL BACK
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
FAVORED TERRAIN IN WESTERN VA BACK INTO EASTERN WV.  DID NOT
DEPART FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z HRW-ARW/NMM AND NAM
CONEST...WHICH WERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THRU THE GULF COAST STATES...

A LINGERING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY VORT
BACK THRU THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOCUS SOME ENHANCED/MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN WHAT SHOULD
REMAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  STUCK CLOSER TO THE HIRES MODEL QPFS HERE FOR THE FINER
DETAILS..INCLUDING THE 12Z ARW..NMMB AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR.

...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ALSO
DROP SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.  THE MODELS SHOW A
COMBINATION OF DECENT HEIGHT FALLS..FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOLSTERED
BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT..AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET--WHICH BRING IN HIGHER
MOISTURE WITH PWS LIKELY POOLING TO NEAR OR OVER 2 INCHES VICINITY
OF THE FRONT.  BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAINS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN MN.  FURTHER TO THE WEST...STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT...INTERACTING WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE AND
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD AND EASTERN
WY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED TERRAIN.  FOR THE MOST PART THE
MODEL MASS FIELDS REMAINED IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM..LEADING TO RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
RESULTING CONVECTIVE EVENT.  BY MON AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...EXPECT CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY.  BY MON EVENING...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1-2+
INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY FROM EASTERN SD THROUGH SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN WI..WITH SOME
ISOLATED GREATER THAN 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

...WESTERN STATES...

SHORTWAVES RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES RIDGE AND ALSO TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE THRU THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...WILL
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEATING AND SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE PARTS OF THE REGION TO
SUPPORT INCREASED CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES.  WPC
QPF GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND OF REASONABLY AGREEABLE MODEL QPFS AND
CONTINUITY...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

DAYS 2/3...


...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

DEEP MOISTURE RIDING ALONG A SLOWING FRONT DURING DAY 2 WILL FUEL
CONVECTION WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AS
THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING DAY 3. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO
WEAK WITH THE SURFACE WAVE ON DAY 3...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
MAINLY ON THE 12Z ECMWF.

DAY 2...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS SLOWING FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
PARALLELING THE FRONT THERE. AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVELS
TRACKS FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS MO/KS AND WESTERN OK BEFORE
7/12Z...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE IT TAPS 2.00+
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR AND PLACES IT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOWED MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SOUNDINGS CLOSER TO THE FRONT
SHOWED WARM RAIN PROCESSES BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT...RAISING THE
SPECTER FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION COULD OCCUR AS THE FIRST SHORT WAVE
PASSES...BUT THE ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SECOND SHORT WAVE
THAT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS
SHORT WAVE...MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF 2.00 TO 3.50 INCHES OF QPF STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN TX ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL OK/SOUTHEAST KS/WESTERN AND CENTRAL MO. IN THIS
AREA...A MODERATE RISK AREA WAS PLACED... WHICH WAS SURROUNDED BY
A SLIGHT RISK AREA ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH TX/OK/EASTERN KS AND
MUCH OF MO.

DAY 3...
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF DAY 3...AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
SHORT WAVE ALLOWS CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ALONG THE QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTH TX ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND CENTRAL MO. A 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE INCREASES LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THIS AXIS...MAINTAINING A FLOW OF
2.00+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) ACROSS THE FRONT. AS THE SHORT WAVE
EXITS...IT ALLOWS THE FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF CELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL OK. DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING...AN AXIS OF 1.75 TO 3.25 INCHES OF QPF
WAS STRETCHED FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OK
INTO SOUTHEAST OK.

THE COMBINATION OF QPF DURING DAYS 2 AND 3 COULD RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3.50 AND 4.50 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH TX AND CENTRAL OK. THESE VALUES END UP BEING MUCH HIGHER
THAN THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA (WHICH
SHOULD LOWER WITH TIME)...AND BECAUSE OF THIS...A MODERATE RISK
WAS PLACED OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS. A MUCH LARGER SLIGHT
RISK AREA COVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX... CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AND
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO.


...OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST....

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHEAST LATE ON DAY 2 AND EARLY ON DAY
3...WHICH SLOWS AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND OH
VALLEY DURING DAY 3.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OH VALLEY. FOR THE MOST
PART...THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS.

DAY 2...
A COLD FRONT BEGINS A SLOWING PROCESS DURING DAY 2 AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS ONTARIO INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...EXTENDING INTO
THE OH VALLEY. A BROAD 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TRANSPORTS PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.75 AND
2.00 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN) INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE
PRESENCE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...WITH LOCAL 0.50
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

DAY 3...
THE FRONT CLEARS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSES QUEBEC AND NORTHERN ENGLAND. DEEP
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT
IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...SO A LARGE AREA
OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.

THE FRONT SLOWS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AS THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO IT. DEEP MOISTURE (IN THE
FORM OF 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR) AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT RUN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN AXIS OF 0.75 T0 1.25 INCHES
OF QPF WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/SOUTHERN OH INTO SOUTHWEST PA
AND NORTHERN WV...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER
PORTIONS OF IN/OH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONVECTION...AND COULD
BE EXTENDED FURTHER EAST ACROSS WV/SOUTHWEST PA IF THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING INCREASES.


...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES....

DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDES NORTH ALONG A FRONT
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...MAINLY
DURING DAY 2. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
ACTING ON IT...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS.

A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES DURING DAY 2 PUSH A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A LOW LEVEL 25
TO 35 KNOT FLOW TRANSPORTS 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH
IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INTO NORTHERN MO/IA/IL INTO WI AND WESTERN MI. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AS WARM RAIN PROCESSES BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE
IMPORTANT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A STRIPE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST IA THROUGH NORTHERN
IL INTO MUCH OF WI AND WESTERN MI. THE WPC QPF SHOWED A STRIPE OF
0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ALONG THIS AXIS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS AREA GENERALLY ABOVE 2.00 INCHES...SO
WHILE LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RIDE A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS DURING DAY 3...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND THE PLACEMENT OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED
PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
WY CROSSES THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. AN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS INJECTS 1.25 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
ACROSS WESTERN ND/SD. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER
WESTERN SD...CLOSE TO AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM NORTHERN MT...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD RESULT IN A CLUSTER OF STRONG EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ND
INTO WESTERN SD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE STORMS SHOULD
BE MOSTLY OUTFLOW DOMINATED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN SD...WHERE LOCAL 0.75 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE
PLACED. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.50
INCHES... BUT AT THIS POINT...ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT
EXPECTED.


...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST STATES DURING THE DAY 2/3
PERIOD...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. IN AN
ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE SOME OF THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE WPC QPF
WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECWMF/GFS. THE 12Z NAM/09Z SREF
MEAN WERE ALSO ADDED TO THE BLEND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHERN NV DUE TO
THEIR BETTER DEPICTION OF HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

DAY 2...
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES SHOW A STRONG MOISTURE TIE TO
PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF BAJA CA...AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS INJECTED
INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND ROCKIES. THE MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE A LARGER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW
BECOMES UPSLOPE ACROSS NM AND EASTERN CO...WHICH SHOULD FOCUS 1.00
TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) ON THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN THESE TWO
STATES. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WHICH
THEN TRACKS FOR THE VALLEY FLOORS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF
QPF ACROSS MUCH OF NM AND THE ROCKIES OF CO...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
NEAR AN INCH FROM THE ROCKIES OF SOUTHERN CO INTO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN NM. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES HERE ARE AS LOW AS AN INCH...AND THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
RAINFALL RATE CONVECTION AND LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. BECAUSE OF THIS...A SLIGHT
RISK AREA WAS PLACED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM AND
SOUTHERN CO.

FURTHER WEST...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND
NORTHERN NV (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25
INCHES...WHICH IS BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN) SETS THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCAL UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FAVORS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS...AND LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS COULD
RESULT IN TRAINING WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...BUT BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...FLOODING ISSUES
SHOULD BE LOCALIZED HERE.

DAY 3...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS MORE OR LESS THE SAME ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING DAY 3. THE UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES MORE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE ROCKIES OF CO...AND BECOMES A BIT WEAKER ACROSS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM. CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE AREA
OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES QPF AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA...WITH LOCAL 0.50
INCH AMOUNTS IN NORTH CENTRAL CO...WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSER TO ONE
OF THE WEAKER SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW. SINCE THE THREAT IS NOT AS
HIGH FOR FLASH FLOODING AS DAY 2...NO SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
ASSIGNED.

FURTHER WEST...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHERN NV.  LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FAVORS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS...AND
LOCAL 1.00 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA
RANGE. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS COULD RESULT IN TRAINING
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...F FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOCALIZED.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

PEREIRA/HAYES

24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 521795 520781 517778 514777 507773 504773 502777 499782
      496786 491795 486801 482810 470826 464835 459842 448855
      435870 430876 425883 414899 408905 404909 400912 392917
      389914 388910 386905 385900 380893 374886 370882 368876
      368869 369867 369863 373850 384838 391834 401832 411827
      415819 419811 424802 428792 432784 433779 430774 428769
      425766 416762 413760 407760 400755 391751 387749 383750
      374751 369745 366740 362738 360739 356737 352735 347736
      340741 335747 329752 321759 315767 308773 301780 294786
      287791 277795 272797 271800 266801 261801 257800 253802
      249804 247807 243825 251829 260831 267834 271835 277835
      288836 291841 292847 296858 300868 302872 301878 300884
      301887 305887 308884 311883 314886 329893 339909 341914
      342921 343923 341928 339932 339939 339943 342945 351950
      354950 357952 359950 361949 361945 365946 368950 370953
      369957 352989 340999 325010 321013 316013 311015 306015
      302016 296016 288017 281022 275028 280034 287041 258051
      255060 259067 261072 266074 273079 278081 280084 283092
      286100 294106 301113 310117 316120 320118 329114 332114
      335118 338122 338129 338133 343134 352136 361138 362149
      360155 363159 370160 375179 370181 366181 363182 363185
      365189 381202 386204 391206 396204 399201 400190 398179
      404174 400162 397141 395130 397127 400128 404130 407140
      409149 410161 413172 415182 415188 413191 412199 410207
      410209 413207 416203 419201 422198 425194 428190 425186
      423183 423174 427172 428166 428158 427153
 0.01 427153 425143 426140 428140 431141 433143 441147 444149
      447146 449143 448138 448133 450132 451134 458140 463139
      463111 468102 470098 471091 476064 477051 473054 470053
      471038 471023 466016 459019 456021 455018 456015 457009
      458005 461992 466984 470974 474965 484949 489940 494932
      499924 504914 511895 515886 518882 518874 517866 516861
      515852 516846 518842 519836 519827 520821 521795
 0.01 488022 488017 488015 486012 485009 483006 482004 480006
      478009 478012 478017 479019 479022 481025 484026 487025
      488022
 0.01 400023 398021 395019 393018 390016 387018 387022 387027
      387031 387035 391035 394035 395032 396027 398025 400023
 0.01 378107 376102 374098 370087 365079 361074 358071 354071
      352073 352077 354089 347096 347101 350104 354107 359109
      369114 377109 378107
 0.01 325087 325083 325080 324076 323074 322072 318070 316071
      314073 312076 310079 312081 315084 317085 319086 322088
      325087
 0.25 511812 510804 508803 505805 497814 484833 476842 468851
      452869 445877 438887 431897 425905 395941 381960 369979
      355001 349013 347026 348032 351034 352032 359021 364010
      367005 371001 374997 380995 389988 399981 407974 414981
      416984 416989 416993 417998 417004 415011 414017 411025
      406035 403042 402044 398046 392046 386043 376039 371030
      370038 369041 366043 354043 353047 353051 355058 361058
      367057 371058 374059 375062 373063 372067 373069 375074
      377077 379075 380072 380067 381065 386066 394067 399070
      412072 418074 422078 423085 422091 422098 424107 434109
      437111 440110 444108 447104 449096 445092 439088 436084
      438078 440076 444077 448078 449074 448071 445067 436058
      433052 436046 440042 445041 446038 443032 439026 440017
      451995 457982 462969 467957 471952 474949 481941 484935
      487928 496903 500889 503875 507859 509843 511835 510827
      511812
 0.25 416790 416782 414777 410772 407769 399764 391758 387756
      382755 377758 373757 364755 358755 353758 350769 351776
      354779 356781 357784 355789 348798 346801 346805 349806
      360806 363810 362816 364821 367824 373825 379823 384822
      388820 392816 395812 398807 402804 410798 414795 416790
 0.25 388201 388199 388198 387196 386195 385193 384193 383192
      381192 381195 382197 382198 384199 385200 387201 388201
 0.25 355120 353115 349111 344103 341099 341091 342084 347081
      346078 342076 337077 332077 329079 329082 332087 336097
      339106 341112 345116 350119 354121 355120
 0.25 353899 353893 350889 345880 333867 332861 329857 322851
      315847 312843 310837 312832 314827 316822 314820 310819
      306822 304827 303831 299841 300848 302853 306862 312870
      320873 325882 337896 339900 343902 345899 349900 353899
 0.25 336797 334795 329796 326799 324801 323799 323806 321810
      322813 324813 328811 331807 333804 336800 336797
 0.25 318114 319109 317105 314102 311099 307096 304095 300097
      301102 304105 308107 311111 315113 318114 318114
 0.25 292822 289820 285819 277817 272814 267810 260807 253808
      252811 254814 259817 265821 272823 280824 289824 292822
 0.50 506839 506827 506821 505816 500819 496823 487835 478847
      470857 461866 449876 444881 441886 434899 431904 426911
      417922 413927 414931 416934 420939 422948 421970 423980
      422990 420008 418018 417027 417034 416038 411042 413051
      411054 407054 404052 400052 398055 398058 400060 404062
      407068 421069 426072 429073 432071 435069 439070 446075
      446071 440067 436066 434064 429059 428055 428050 430041
      433039 437038 440036 440034 436028 435026 435020 437012
      441006 445002 450995 456981 461965 463958 467952 477940
      481935 484928 494897 499881 501872 504862 506839
 0.50 443099 444096 443096 441093 440092 438093 437095 436097
      437100 437101 439103 439104 440103 441102 442101 443100
      443099
 0.50 434097 434095 433093 432092 431091 430090 429089 428088
      427089 426091 428094 429096 430097 431098 432098 434097
 0.50 409942 410937 407934 401938 391949 383961 375974 368987
      362000 362003 365001 371997 382988 391979 395972 399966
      405950 409942
 0.50 400774 400769 398767 392762 386759 382760 381766 378772
      377768 374765 368762 366762 364764 365769 367771 370779
      370788 366794 365799 368801 369809 370812 373813 379818
      383816 386814 390808 393801 398796 400793 401788 400777
      400774
 0.50 383056 384053 383049 381046 376046 372046 367047 362047
      358049 358051 363053 368053 374054 377056 382056 383056
 0.50 358014 359011 360009 358008 356009 354010 353011 352013
      351015 351018 350019 350020 350022 350024 350026 352024
      353022 354021 355020 356018 357016 358014 358014
 0.50 344893 342889 340887 338885 336883 334882 331880 330880
      331883 332887 334889 336891 338893 340894 344893
 1.00 500852 501845 499838 495840 492843 480858 469873 465881
      464888 461892 456900 451907 445909 440916 433923 430933
      430942 431948 433952 437955 437961 435965 431975 429989
      427999 422023 420027 422032 425034 427032 430029 436006
      448994 452985 456976 458962 462952 473939 477929 481919
      488899 492890 496878 499865 500852
 1.00 395959 397952 393957 389962 386968 382972 379976 376981
      375985 378986 382982 386977 389972 391968 394961 395959
 1.00 388804 388800 386797 383795 383788 380786 376787 373791
      371795 374798 379798 381798 379803 382807 384810 386806
      388804
 1.50 494868 495856 494851 492851 483862 476874 468888 462901
      460908 455914 451919 445923 439927 435933 434941 435945
      438947 440950 441956 438964 434979 433990 434996 438996
      441996 444993 448988 452980 454971 457955 460949 466943
      470938 473931 479916 482908 484901 491886 494868
 1.50 432009 432005 430008 429010 427012 425015 424018 423022
      422025 421029 423029 425027 427025 428023 430019 431016
      431011 432009
 1.50 379791 381788 377791 376792 375792 373794 373795 375796
      375797 376796 377796 378794 379793 379791
 2.00 491868 489868 486869 483872 476882 469892 465906 463912
      460918 451925 443933 441935 441938 443947 444954 442960
      439966 437973 436980 439984 443988 447986 451972 454957
      456950 460945 464942 467937 473925 475919 477910 482899
      484892 485884 491868
 3.00 446969 449963 446963 442969 443971 445971 446969

24HR QP VT 08/00Z
 0.01 537754 536740 532731 526724 524722 519723 514725 511727
      508728 505728 503721 491707 480696 473693 470691 465692
      445702 438707 430708 427707 424708 419711 417716 415719
      411718 401720 381720 369723 367725 364726 359727 330745
      325751 320760 315770 310779 299790 296793 291794 280796
      270795 263796 257797 256802 251803 250808 251814 252821
      254831 256836 258838 265842 270844 275843 281842 284838
      289835 295836 303838 310840 315841 320841 324842 328842
      335848 330850 327850 325853 326859 330861 344869 347872
      349875 353885 357892 357898 357905 355910 353915 348926
      341944 334961 326975 319984 312990 304996 298001 293005
      284008 275010 265010 261012 260017 258024 259028 257033
      256035 253035 244033 239033 236034 227037 226044 228053
      230057 233059 240063 247067 261079 278088 284091 291097
      304106 311111 322115 328108 334109 337112 346125 351132
      354133 357136 363137 368140 370140 371144 367149 363152
      364155 369162 372168 374173 371177 364179 360179 356182
      357185 361187 366189 370193 375196 379199 385204 389206
      392208 398214 404219 406223 403227 399229 400233 406243
      410246 415246 418246 422243 425243 426240 423235 425229
      427225 430224 438221 435212 430204 426200 424195 421192
      416190 412188 411183 409172 415168 418165 420160 421145
      419139 415136 410138 408137 406135 408121 410118 414116
      418114 423115 439122 441123 442128 441135 435145 434150
      438153 444159 461163 469165 474166 478169 485174 498178
      503179 507178 512179 514182 517180 521181 525180 526173
      528169 527165 524155 493132 483126 478124 474123 472118
 0.01 472118 470105 470100 469100 464097 458095 455087 451075
      449070 449065 451061 452056 453048 454043 455039 455035
      454034 450034 447031 442030 437031 431032 422035 410039
      398040 392039 387037 378031 373028 371026 371021 371011
      374006 376001 378995 384986 397965 404958 408956 412952
      421943 428934 434925 441918 450909 458902 473888 478885
      483883 491882 496879 504872 511865 515859 517853 522841
      527830 531818 532779 535775 537773 537770 537759 537754
 0.01 388783 387776 382775 376775 370775 360781 353788 351791
      347796 345800 343805 343812 350813 354814 359812 364810
      369806 372803 376804 382804 384802 384797 384790 385785
      388783
 0.25 526780 518758 515754 510753 505752 498754 492757 488755
      481751 479748 476749 470752 466754 465757 457766 441784
      425802 417814 414820 409826 391842 378864 374875 371889
      362920 357934 352945 340967 328987 324993 319999 309007
      299014 293016 289020 286023 285031 287038 290043 298049
      302050 306050 314050 321053 328053 331051 331049 332047
      336046 343048 345050 343052 341055 342060 339066 332073
      330076 330081 331088 336097 339099 342099 344096 345092
      352077 357073 362071 366071 368072 372077 376083 378085
      382086 387085 391082 396078 399074 401071 404071 410071
      413069 415066 416061 414057 412055 407051 399049 392047
      378042 372040 364041 359041 356040 355038 354029 356020
      360010 367001 382978 390967 398956 426917 433909 442900
      453890 464882 472875 482868 495864 499862 503857 511848
      517830 519822 518812 516802 512796 526780
 0.25 468791 467783 464784 462786 459792 456796 453801 450807
      449813 454814 459812 462807 465799 466794 468791
 0.25 452831 450828 446829 440835 433841 429848 424856 421860
      420865 426861 432854 437848 443841 449835 452831
 0.25 445099 444094 442091 439089 437090 435093 431090 428088
      424089 424093 427098 429101 434104 439103 443102 445099
 0.25 418750 417747 415745 411745 409747 407749 406752 404755
      402757 403762 405764 408765 411764 413762 414759 416756
      417752 418750
 0.25 400206 399205 397204 396205 397207 399208 400206
 0.25 411108 411106 412103 411102 411101 411098 410096 409096
      408094 406096 406098 405100 405102 405105 404107 404109
      405111 407112 409111 409110 411108 411108
 0.25 389201 390197 388195 387193 384191 382190 378189 375188
      372188 373191 376193 377195 379197 382199 384200 387201
      389201
 0.25 362767 358761 355759 352759 347765 344772 342779 338786
      335792 335796 338795 344790 348785 352779 357774 362767
      362767
 0.25 305816 303814 297814 288813 283813 277814 273813 269810
      266809 263809 260811 263815 268816 275818 283822 291825
      294826 297827 300826 304819 305816
 0.25 292067 293063 293059 290054 286051 280048 267044 254042
      249043 247045 246048 241057 245060 251062 261068 273072
      277074 281075 285075 289071 292067
 0.50 508823 506817 503816 500816 494820 491820 491815 488808
      485807 481809 471820 462829 454840 446850 441856 435861
      427871 423876 420884 417892 418897 418904 420907 426905
      446888 466870 470865 472858 475849 478846 480847 483849
      484852 486855 490855 496850 501845 504841 507836 508828
      508823
 0.50 442808 442805 440804 436808 430814 425822 421830 420834
      424831 427828 427831 426836 426839 428840 431838 435833
      435828 431826 429826 432821 437815 442808
 0.50 412921 413915 409911 404912 401912 396910 395907 395901
      397890 398883 396878 391875 386876 383881 381886 376898
      372906 368916 365929 361941 357949 352958 345967 340976
      335984 330993 324001 316009 310014 303021 299023 297028
      299035 302037 307036 311033 317028 321028 324029 330031
      339034 344036 349034 352023 357012 363003 374988 386969
      391961 397954 401949 403944 408933 412921
 0.50 386198 384197 384198 386198 386198
 0.50 395055 393053 392052 390052 390054 391056 393056 395055
 0.50 384056 383050 378047 372046 367046 362048 357051 355053
      354058 357059 361060 366061 371065 376069 380069 383063
      384056
 0.50 340096 340093 340092 339091 339089 337088 337089 338091
      338093 338095 338096 340096 340096
 0.50 283066 283057 279054 274052 268050 263047 256047 255048
      256052 261055 266058 270060 275063 280066 283066
 1.00 499832 497830 495830 494830 491832 489834 488838 487841
      486844 487846 490848 492846 494843 496840 497837 499834
      499832
 1.00 458866 455864 452865 449868 445870 442873 438875 435880
      435884 439885 442883 446880 449877 452875 456872 457868
      458866
 1.00 395945 396941 395936 392936 389933 385928 386920 383904
      381903 378905 375913 373918 371926 370937 368943 366950
      360953 355958 352963 345974 338986 331996 325010 324014
      327016 331020 336024 344024 349021 352016 360004 367994
      375981 389959 395945
 1.50 388954 384952 384947 386942 387939 386936 379938 377941
      374947 372951 368954 361958 357961 354964 348973 344980
      339991 335997 332002 330008 331012 333017 337021 343020
      351016 356007 360000 366991 371984 377976 379972 380966
      386956 388954
 1.50 377925 377922 377921 376922 376925 377925 377925
 2.00 378972 377970 377969 375969 374970 373971 372972 371974
      370976 369978 368981 368983 369983 370983 371983 373981
      375979 375978 376976 377974 378972
 2.00 374961 371959 369961 366965 364965 362962 359963 354967
      346981 342994 338999 334006 335014 337017 341018 347015
      353010 356005 360996 366983 361983 358983 359978 361974
      364972 370970 372965 374961
 3.00 347009 349006 347005 347004 346003 344003 342004 340006
      340008 341010 342011 343011 345011 345010 347009 347009

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 552879 553869 552859 548845 543839 540839 535842 530850
      525859 515877 511887 510892 509898 507906 505912 502916
      482947 475955 467962 460969 459972 458979 457982 455983
      451986 441987 436985 434985 434988 431991 427993 416006
      410010 405017 402027 400030 397029 393027 388026 385024
      374023 361023 351026 342030 333031 330031 330028 332025
      339019 342016 345012 351004 356999 361994 367987 374983
      382979 390975 396969 402961 404958 406951 406943 406934
      406919 405907 403900 402895 400891 401886 409864 411855
      415847 424832 434817 439810 444801 460786 466780 472773
      498744 504738 508731 517716 523707 525703 525698 523692
      522685 515683 504686 503688 501686 499677 497670 495668
      493655 491649 490646 487645 483645 477648 475651 470653
      467655 465649 464643 461642 453643 447648 439655 428668
      422677 417685 413694 407703 401712 396719 385735 378741
      370747 362753 354759 345770 335784 330790 323797 307809
      304811 299810 289809 279807 271804 261803 256803 252806
      253816 253822 256824 263827 269833 286835 291837 294840
      295843 294845 295849 299852 304854 307854 309851 311847
      312842 315837 320830 328813 335805 342800 349796 352794
      357793 360797 360803 358807 355810 349816 347820 345824
      342834 343847 346858 349863 352867 356875 355888 349909
      342929 335949 327963 318976 314984 308992 303998 297003
 0.01 297003 293006 287009 283012 278015 274017 268020 264023
      259026 255028 251030 248029 243027 235027 230028 228028
      228031 229039 229041 228045 230051 231059 237070 247078
      266091 277097 282099 289098 304095 313090 319086 325087
      330091 334097 337102 340109 347120 355127 357129 358128
      362128 364126 370124 370120 366119 354113 351106 348100
      348095 350092 354091 360094 363099 367102 374102 380099
      383099 390101 391106 387108 382110 376115 374118 373123
      372132 376137 380142 382150 380157 378163 376164 377167
      373173 369179 363179 359182 359185 362186 374196 379200
      384205 394213 407220 407223 405224 399226 394229 393231
      394234 398237 406239 412239 417238 422234 427228 434225
      436220 437216 434214 428210 426207 425202 427195 428187
      427181 427172 425170 422168 420162 420157 421152 426134
      432118 437115 439117 440123 435139 433147 433156 435165
      440166 444163 448160 455149 459145 463141 465140 467141
      470143 476147 489154 494156 501155 506152 507143 504137
      500133 491126 486123 483120 481117 474106 472096 469090
      457083 457073 457067 459062 461055 466049 474039 481029
      492005 495998 499995 501992 504987 508980 515968 519963
      523957 530947 534940 536934 547909 549900 551891 552879
 0.25 534904 534896 532892 524896 518902 513910 510919 507930
      506937 507944 511945 514944 520939 526931 530921 533912
      534904
 0.25 499721 496715 491712 487708 488702 487698 486696 481696
      474697 471699 463706 456712 449720 448722 449726 448731
      445735 442735 440733 438732 435733 431737 424746 420749
      418745 418740 418733 423724 428714 430710 432704 429704
      424707 419711 415714 408722 401732 396741 395744 396749
      398753 395764 393768 389771 377790 372799 369805 368812
      366822 366837 367854 367867 367876 366883 363896 360907
      358914 356920 346940 342949 337957 325975 312993 308002
      306007 307013 309018 312022 322020 332014 339007 346000
      354992 382966 390958 396949 398942 399937 399927 398920
      393909 390904 390896 395876 399862 404851 408841 412828
      415818 420810 432792 440782 446773 452765 456761 462758
      468757 472753 479747 486740 493733 497727 499721
 0.25 473009 474006 474004 473002 473001 472000 470999 468999
      467000 465001 463003 463004 462006 462008 463010 463011
      465012 466012 468012 470012 471011 473009 473009
 0.25 451102 452097 450095 447092 442086 437083 432082 426084
      425085 424089 426095 429099 432104 437105 444105 449103
      451102
 0.25 450037 451029 451022 448014 444009 441008 432006 428007
      425009 420017 418022 419029 422038 429044 436050 443049
      446048 448044 450037
 0.25 406212 403207 400203 395199 390195 385192 381190 379192
      380194 383200 388203 394207 397210 403214 406212
 0.25 417073 417057 415053 413050 408049 403051 398050 390048
      374050 359052 359056 362059 363062 362066 373073 375076
      379076 382075 386077 398085 404085 408084 411082 417073
 0.25 343085 344083 344081 344078 343077 343076 342075 340074
      338074 336074 334075 333077 332079 333082 334084 334086
      335088 336088 337089 338089 339089 341088 342087 343086
      343085
 0.25 337058 336056 334055 332054 330054 329054 327055 326055
      326057 327058 328059 330060 332060 334060 336060 337058
 0.25 311047 312043 311039 311036 310034 306032 303033 301034
      299036 298040 298043 300045 304046 305047 309048 311047
 0.25 310820 307818 305818 301817 297818 294819 290819 288820
      289822 292824 294825 297826 300826 304826 306825 308822
      310820
 0.25 287076 287069 285062 283055 278051 272050 269051 265051
      251046 244044 240044 238045 235053 237059 240065 243069
      248073 253077 259080 265082 273085 281085 287076
 0.25 278042 280040 279038 277038 275037 273037 272038 271039
      271040 270042 270044 271045 273046 274046 276046 278044
      278043 278042
 0.50 443099 443098 441096 440093 439093 438094 437095 438098
      439100 441101 443100 443099
 0.50 446041 446036 445031 445027 444025 442024 439022 436023
      433025 432028 431031 431035 431038 433040 435042 438044
      441044 444043 446041
 0.50 410735 410734 408735 408736 410735 410735
 0.50 415797 415792 414786 410782 404781 397784 391786 387790
      384794 381799 378805 376812 376829 379843 377855 376863
      377870 378875 377879 374885 370897 368904 367909 367916
      364922 359934 353945 346952 331972 325983 319992 315998
      313004 316011 321014 326014 330011 338004 347994 355985
      371971 381963 385958 389954 391948 393940 393932 392927
      388911 387907 385904 386899 386890 385882 387874 390870
      397858 402846 405834 408819 415797
 0.50 401211 401208 399205 397203 394202 393200 389198 386197
      384198 386199 389201 391202 394204 396205 398208 400211
      401211
 0.50 406072 408070 408068 408065 407064 405063 403063 402063
      400063 398064 397064 396066 395069 395071 396072 397073
      397074 399075 401074 402074 403074 404073 406072 406072
 0.50 392052 390052 388052 390053 392053 392052
 0.50 279078 279073 276070 273063 265058 257053 248050 243052
      241054 241059 242062 248068 254073 263077 272079 279078
 1.00 399800 399797 395796 392798 390799 388803 388806 388810
      389813 393813 395812 396807 397805 398802 399800
 1.00 400837 399832 394833 392835 389839 388843 387849 389856
      391856 394852 395849 397844 400839 400837
 1.00 388943 387937 385932 382929 378929 374932 371936 367945
      364949 361952 350953 345961 339967 332974 328982 325994
      324999 326002 330004 334002 340996 347989 351982 359975
      366970 375965 380960 384956 386952 388943
 1.00 259067 258066 257065 257064 255063 253062 251061 250061
      250060 248060 247060 247062 248063 249064 249065 251065
      253067 255068 256068 258068 259067
 1.50 383952 384946 382942 378942 375945 367956 365959 360960
      354961 346963 341968 336974 332980 331983 331989 331994
      333996 337995 339992 344987 353976 358971 364968 370964
      375960 380956 383952
 2.00 350974 351970 350967 346967 343969 340971 337976 335979
      333984 334986 337989 341987 343984 346980 348977 350974
 3.00 345973 344972 343973 342973 341976 340978 339979 339980
      339981 341980 343978 344976 344975 345973

$$





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