Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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387
FXUS04 KWBC 131859
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 14/0000 UTC THRU FEB 15/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING BACK INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INLAND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NORTHEAST OREGON
INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IDAHO DAY 1 IN CONJUNCTION WITH TWO WELL
DEFINED AREAS OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE LATEST BLENDED
TPW LOOPS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SUB-TROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THESE AREAS OF HEIGHT FALLS
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST OF THE DATELINE IN THE
TROPICAL WEST PACIFIC.  THE ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
EARLY DAY 1 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE LEAD
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WILL REMAIN WELL
DEFINED...STRENGTHENING AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT AREA OF
HEIGHT FALLS PUSHES INLAND INTO CENTRAL B.C.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH
THE WA CASCADES...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND ALONG
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE...NORTHWARD TO THE
OLYMPIC RANGE.  OVERALL...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT---LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
INLAND...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ALSO LIKELY FROM THE
BLUES OF NORTHEAST OREGON INTO BITTERROOTS...SALMON RIVER AND
PORTIONS OF THE SAWTOOTH.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
AND MID MS VALLEY

A LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
ACCENTUATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
ANTI-CYCLONE PRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE GREAT LAKES--OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY.  OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER TO MID MS VALLEY REGION DAY 1...WITH
A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE.  THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCE DETAILS AMONG THE MODELS...LEADING TO SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
DOWNSTREAM PUSH OF THE PRECIP AS PER THE HI RES ARW GIVEN THE
OVERALL QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS.  SEE
THE QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY AND LOWER TN VALLEY REGION

THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF DETAILS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER TN VALLEY.  THE
LOW LEVEL WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST IN STRENGTHEN LATE
DAY 1 INTO A DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE TX/OK BORDER INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING PRECIP ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT.  DAY 1 QPF FOLLOWED THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE ECMWF...GFS...NAM AND CMC WHICH WERE HEAVIER THAN THE HI
RES ARW...NMMB.  MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .25-.50" RANGE
DEPICTED OVER NORTHEAST AR---NW TN---SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN KY
AND FAR SOUTHERN IL.

GREAT LAKES

THE ARCTIC SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.  THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASINGLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND RESULT IN WEAKENING
OF THE FAVORABLE MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/00Z
 0.01 535217 537200 537190 534185 528175 522167 517158 509151
      506151 503147 497141 490132 480125 473124 468122 465127
      456129 452133 450139 447143 443142 441139 437139 432148
      425149 423145 422138 423133 424131 431123 435119 439118
      442121 447123 465116 470115 473111 475106 473103 470102
      459099 455096 450092 447093 444093 441091 434093 431090
      428087 425086 424091 428096 428099 427101 422102 420104
      420107 419110 417111 412112 410106 407103 403109 401113
      403116 406119 413122 417126 416135 417141 417148 410159
      412162 415163 418164 420166 423172 426175 425180 423186
      426189 429192 433194 438196 441201 445205 448208 451210
      449212 446212 444213 439212 434209 428207 423208 424213
      422222 426231 423234 421234 418232 411234 407236 404240
      405248 410249 416252 420255 426257 431256 452259 458260
      461260 471263 480269 489278 496285 504293 506293 507290
      510286 515277 518272 521265 523260 524254 524244 521240
      515229 509220 507215 505208 529226 533222 535217
 0.01 525020 522008 524999 525991 521986 520981 512972 509967
      504962 496955 490929 487915 485911 483908 481906 478906
      472905 468903 461892 456889 453884 450883 448880 445875
      442871 443868 446866 455863 460864 464868 467876 468887
      468890 470893 473890 477877 478869 479866 479861 477856
      473852 470848 465846 460847 456848 447845 440844 442850
      445855 444858 441858 438858 434857 430854 425850 422846
      416839 404818 391803 395798 399797 400795 400791 399790
      392791 387793 384797 381802 379807 373808 369811 366811
      363814 359818 352875 349888 349900 348907 347917 344930
      339941 339945 337948 337956 344957 350957 361952 363950
      365952 367957 371958 375956 385952 389949 393945 397943
      400943 404945 408951 409956 410960 414973 415976 415981
      419985 422987 428990 430004 425015 428027 431041 428050
      426057 426063 431068 433069 434073 440074 445078 446080
      450080 453081 455079 457073 457066 456061 453047 452044
      453042 458037 462034 468032 478036 487043 496050 500054
      503055 507051 510048 517036 522028 525020
 0.01 472698 452681 448675 447672 448668 449661 449656 450652
      449647 447643 444641 441642 436646 432646 429644 424647
      420646 418644 414645 411647 407653 404660 403663 400666
      399673 402680 404689 406695 408697 418704 421705 426705
      432704 437700 442699 444696 447697 451699 450704 445709
      441711 439714 444713 449718 450724 446727 441728 443730
      446730 450729 454728 456725 459724 464718 469707 472698
 0.01 454835 453825 450821 446817 443815 427802 426799 427796
      428792 431791 435787 436782 436778 437775 436766 434760
      432756 430754 426754 424756 423759 423773 423782 420784
      417784 413783 412789 414809 411810 407813 409817 411822
      412824 415824 417823 417818 418812 420809 423810 426815
      428819 434822 443827 446829 449833 452836 454835
 0.01 445063 444060 444058 442055 442053 441050 439052 439055
      439057 440059 442060 444060 445063 445063
 0.01 419074 419068 418064 416061 412060 407056 403054 399055
      398059 395061 391061 388063 388075 393080 396080 399078
      404076 411078 416078 417076 419074
 0.25 515269 516251 515243 513237 509229 506223 500212 498204
      494199 484201 473204 468207 466208 462207 459207 457210
      453213 447214 441214 435215 430218 428219 426223 429228
      431231 432235 430240 430245 433249 440251 452252 464253
      472256 477258 484263 488267 496276 500280 504283 508282
      515269
 0.25 524200 525195 525190 521181 518175 514171 506167 498166
      494166 491163 487158 480154 474149 467139 460139 454143
      450148 445150 441150 438153 437156 438160 442165 445172
      446175 445180 440185 440189 442193 447197 450198 453198
      457191 462185 465179 465174 461172 457171 457169 460168
      465170 480171 487173 491175 493178 498184 504187 510191
      514196 520201 524200
 0.25 498250 495242 492235 489227 486225 482224 476224 473225
      471228 477228 480231 482234 485236 488236 492240 496248
      498250
 0.25 489139 488136 486133 484132 481131 478131 474131 472133
      472136 472138 475140 479140 480140 484140 487140 489139
 0.25 467996 468991 468985 466977 462964 447943 440932 437927
      433922 426911 417903 408896 403894 399897 396904 396910
      400916 403920 413928 421937 424943 426949 428957 431963
      433964 437964 441965 443968 447981 448991 449000 451002
      453003 458003 467996
 0.25 435674 434669 432665 428662 424660 421661 418664 417669
      419676 422679 425681 429683 432682 434678 435674
 0.25 447111 447109 446106 443103 441103 439103 435104 434104
      431106 429108 431111 433112 436113 440113 443114 446114
      447111
 0.25 376889 375876 374871 371868 369864 368858 363854 362859
      361865 361872 360876 359887 360898 364909 370907 370900
      372897 376889
 0.50 508274 507273 507272 506270 505268 503267 502266 500266
      499268 499271 501273 501275 502276 503277 505278 506277
      507276 508274
 0.50 511252 511246 510241 508234 504228 501222 498213 494207
      491205 487203 482204 475205 469208 467210 462209 459210
      458212 452215 446216 438216 433220 431222 432228 433230
      437231 440231 440234 435239 438245 443247 457247 463248
      471250 480253 487254 489252 489249 488245 485242 476230
      472230 470230 468228 472224 476222 484223 488224 490228
      494234 501247 503250 506253 511252
 0.50 477162 476157 474153 471150 468147 463144 459146 457151
      455157 460159 463161 468164 473164 476162 477162
 0.50 463181 463176 460174 457175 455172 454167 454162 453159
      451159 448162 447165 448173 450177 448180 442183 443188
      446190 449192 451195 453195 455191 459185 463181
 0.50 454231 452228 451229 449229 450230 452231 454231
 0.50 448231 447230 445230 444230 445231 447231 448231
 1.00 491216 491211 489209 485207 479206 474208 470210 465212
      460213 454215 450217 444218 438219 437220 437224 442227
      447228 453225 456226 460229 463228 467224 471222 476220
      486220 491216
 1.00 479246 480241 479236 476232 469234 465232 461231 454233
      448234 442237 442242 445243 452243 459244 466244 474245
      479246
 1.00 461180 461178 459177 456178 454179 452181 450183 447184
      449187 451189 453188 455186 457184 459182 461180
 1.50 484217 485213 484211 481208 474210 467213 460215 452218
      445221 444225 448226 455223 458226 463226 469221 476218
      480218 484217
 1.50 479241 479238 478236 478234 476233 474234 473234 472236
      470238 472239 473241 473242 475242 476243 478243 479241
 1.50 468237 465236 462234 459233 456234 453234 451235 448236
      446237 445240 449241 452242 456242 458242 461242 464241
      466239 468237
 2.00 478238 477235 476235 475235 474237 475239 477240 478238
 2.00 480216 480212 477211 472213 468215 463216 458217 452220
      455222 462225 466221 471218 475216 480216
 2.00 461238 460236 458235 457235 455235 454236 453236 451236
      450237 449237 447238 447239 449240 451240 452240 454240
      456240 458239 460239 461238

$$





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