Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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692
FXUS04 KWBC 031022
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
521 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2016


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 03/1200 UTC THRU DEC 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN REMAINS ON TARGET DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD...THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN TX
(INCLUDING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST) INTO WEST-NORTHWEST
LA...SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHWEST MS. A LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWEST
MX...WITH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN SEA
OF CORTEZ PER THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY. HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE
TERRIBLY LOW...BUT WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING TO SUCH A LOW
LATITUDE...THE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES DIP TO A RARELY SEEN MINUS
5.0. UNUSUALLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING UP FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...COMBINED WITH A SUB-TROPICAL FEED WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL BOOST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR DECEMBER... WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATION PW VALUES...WITH THE ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDES OF 1.75-2.00"
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST RANKING NEAR THE RECORD DECEMBER VALUES. AS
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER...MULTI-DAY PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
DESPITE THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THERE IS INCREASING MODEL
CONSENSUS AS TO SOME OF THE DETAILS. WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A NEAR
EVEN BLEND OF CONTINUITY (PREVIOUS FORECAST) ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GFS / NSSL-WRF / AND OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED QPF. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX IN
THE LOWER-MID LAYERS...AS 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES CLIMB
BETWEEN +3 AND +4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION.

AS WAS NOTED YESTERDAY...SUCH A HIGHLY-FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP COUPLED WITH A DYNAMIC COOL-SEASON SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ALLOW
FOR AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH AGAIN EXPECT
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO POTENTIALLY DISRUPT WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE
OPTIMAL DEEP-LAYER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WELL NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH THE
HIGHER DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG) AVAILABLE
JUST OFFSHORE. EXCEPT FOR THE NAM (WELL NORTH WITH THE MAX
RAINFALL AXIS)...THE GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES CAM GUIDANCE ARE A BIT
BETTER CLUSTERED IN DEPICTING A MORE CONSOLIDATED AREA OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE NEW DAY 1 PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND STRENGTHENING S-N THETA-E AND MOISTURE
SURGE INDICATIVE OF LESS CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE FARTHER NORTH
WITH TIME. HOWEVER...STILL LIKE THE IDEA PER THE LATEST CAMS OF
CONFINING THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF >5 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG GULF COAST...I.E. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND WHERE THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE (NEAR THE AXIS OF
GREATER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWS). A BEVY OF HIGH-RES CAMS
INDICATE 24 HOUR TOTALS OF 5-8+ INCHES OVER THIS
REGION...INCLUDING THE NSSL-WRF...WRF-ARW...AND WRF-NNMB. CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS WPC QPF WERE MINOR WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE
OF FORECAST RAINFALL...WITH A SWATH OF 3-4+ INCH AREAL-AVERAGE
TOTALS STILL ON TARGET ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX
COAST...NORTH TO AROUND LONGVIEW IN EASTERN TX...THEN EASTWARD
INTO NORTHWEST LA. THE EXPANSE OF THE 1+ INCH QPF IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND AS FAR
EAST AS NORTHWEST AL.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

STRENGTHENING WESTERLY/ZONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BRING A MODEST
DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE
PACIFIC NW EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WITHOUT THE BENEFIT
OF A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION...MOISTURE ANOMALIES WILL BE
MINOR...AS PWS INCREASING TO ~0.75 INCH ALONG THE OR COAST WOULD
EQUATE TO +0.5-1 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
DECEMBER. NEVERTHELESS...THE EXPANSIVE W-E ORIENTED WCB ALONG WITH
A PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW (OPTIMAL UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION WITH THE
FLOW MORE OR LESS ORTHOGONAL TO THE TERRAIN) WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD 24 HOUR LIQUID-EQUIVALENT TOTALS BETWEEN 0.5-1.0+ INCH
ACROSS THE WA-NORTHERN OR COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES...ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ID AND NORTHWEST MT. HIGHER
TOTALS (UP TO 1.5-2.0+") ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES PER THE 00Z HIGH-RES QPFS WHICH WERE WELL
CLUSTERED.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

...TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION APPEARING LIKELY. SHOULD HAVE
CONVECTION ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD (12Z
SUNDAY) ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO LA AND MS/AL. THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE LOW LEVEL FRONT EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER SHIFTING EAST AS
WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
EARLY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN IN ANOTHER UPTICK OF
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND LA
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY STREAMING NORTH OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THUS SHOULD HAVE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT AXIS OF
MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTION AND THUS HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS. THIS IS
AT LEAST PARTIALLY DEPENDENT ON HOW CONVECTIVE PROPAGATION SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS EAST TX AND WEST LA INFLUENCES THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. THE HIGH RES ARW IS MORE AGGRESSIVE PROPAGATING
CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH PUSHES THE EFFECTIVE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE 3KM NAM AND NMMB FOCUS AN AXIS
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LA. OVERALL A VERY MESSY SETUP...AND
WPC FOLLOWED SOMETHING CLOSE TO A NON NAM GLOBAL AND HIGH RES
CONSENSUS FOR OUR DAY 2 QPF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS PROBABLY BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 0Z UKMET.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHERE EMBEDDED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.

AS THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO EJECT EAST TOWARDS
TEXAS WILL SEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY CONVECTION BY LATER SUNDAY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
EVOLUTION...WITH WPC AGAIN FAVORING A NON NAM CONSENSUS SOLUTION.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR DAY 2 (12Z SUN-12Z MON)
MODERATE RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST LA.
CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE AREAL AVERAGED AMOUNTS OF 2-3" IN THAT 24 HOUR
PERIOD...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE FALLING ON TOP OF WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE NEARLY SATURATED SOILS FROM SATURDAYS EXPECTED RAINFALL. THUS
THE UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS FORECAST WITH THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO EXACERBATE FLOODING ISSUES
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. OPTED TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH BOTH PWAT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VALUES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND COLOCATED WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...WOULD
EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGH RATES.

ON DAY 3 (12Z MON-12Z TUE) THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD HAVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVE FROM THE
TEXAS COAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN
THE WARM SECTOR. LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD 1"+ AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLE
FROM PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN OH/TN VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY END UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA/SC. IT
IS HERE WHERE A STALLED OUT FRONT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION EARLY MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
BY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH FROM THE
OH VALLEY LOW. THE HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THUS
OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA/SC ON DAY
3. THE OTHER AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION MAY END UP NEAR
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACK WHERE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THIS REGION SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
NORTH INTO THE WESTERN TN/OH VALLEY. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FROM NORTHERN LA INTO NORTHERN MS. EVEN THOUGH THIS CONVECTIVE
ROUND WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE RESULTING IN QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY
IN THE 1-2" RANGE...THIS WILL BE FALLING IN AN AREA THAT WILL HAVE
SEEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF ANTECEDENT RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. THUS THIS
SLIGHT RISK WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH RATES OVER SATURATING SOILS. BOTH OF THESE SLIGHT
RISK WERE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD MARGINAL RISK OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME INTERESTING MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST
WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ARE ALL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEING PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS AGREEMENT. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF
MEAN WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THIS DETERMINISTIC
CONSENSUS...AND RESEMBLES SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE NAM AND OLDER
12Z UKMET. GIVEN THE GOOD AND CONSISTENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN OUR TOP
THREE PERFORMING SHORT RANGE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/UKMET) IT WOULD
APPEAR THE NAM AND ECMWF MEAN REPRESENT LESS LIKELY SOLUTIONS.
THUS THE WPC DAY 3 QPF MOSTLY CLOSELY REPRESENTS A 0Z
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET BLEND. HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED
IF THINGS WERE TO NUDGE A BIT QUICKER...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
(UPDATE: THE NEW 0Z ECMWF MEAN DID INDEED TREND QUITE A BIT SLOWER
AND IS NOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE 0Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONSENSUS).

...NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...

TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST...ONE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND...AND A
SECOND ON MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE...WITH LESS MOISTURE
PRESENT FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM. MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE GENERALLY
MINOR WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AND THUS A MULTI MODEL BLEND WAS USED
FOR QPF ON BOTH DAYS 2 AND 3. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN OR...WITH ADDITIONAL
MAXES SPREADING INLAND INTO THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATER MONDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THUS
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW FORMS AND TRACKS. THUS CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE ON THE QPF AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE LARGE RUN TO RUN SWINGS IN THE MODEL QPF
AXIS...WPC PREFERS TO STAY WITH A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
LAST FEW GFS/ECMWF/UKMET RUNS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

HURLEY/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 483338 487336 490332 494323 498312 500307 504303 508297
      512289 520269 522255 521249 522241 524226 527222 531220
      535213 538204 541193 539183 531165 528159 525157 518151
      503145 492135 454098 449095 444095 435097 432098 430103
      423107 424111 422114 420116 424118 425122 428121 434117
      448124 456120 455114 457112 460114 462118 461124 459128
      455130 452134 450138 436148 436155 437159 441166 444175
      445180 443186 449187 455186 462181 463175 466171 484177
      487180 488186 489190 488193 485197 482198 475201 468205
      465207 460207 454211 450213 446213 432218 425220 423223
      425225 427231 425238 426243 428248 430252 432258 433268
      432278 433290 439305 441313 445322
 0.01 565024 564014 561008 559003 555998 542981 538976 534973
      524966 507957 502954 495954 489954 487957 484957 481961
      479966 479974 480977 480981 483988 478992 471000 470006
      470009 471011 483012 487013 490015 491018 488021 483024
      477024 468027 464030 465035 469039 472046 479055 482058
      486063 487070 487078 489077 492079 493082 493087 495102
      496108 501111 510108 513103 515100 515097 514080 513073
      511066 509060 506057 504053 503048 503040 502033 502027
      505027 509025 515025 527026 530026 532024 535020 537016
      540019 542020 544024 550031 554034 558034 563029 565024
 0.01 491884 492875 491868 484864 481864 479862 474862 471863
      469860 467853 462854 458842 455843 451842 449841 446843
      441848 437847 435845 434847 438859 440864 443865 448864
      452865 455864 460861 466873 468878 466883 466890 468894
      468898 470902 472902 474900 473896 475888 477894 478895
      482890 486887 491884
 0.01 483872 482870 481869 479870 478872 479874 481874 483873
      483872
 0.01 464708 462698 456700 453704 439712 437719 434724 430727
      427731 430733 435734 438738 435743 429745 423743 419745
      418747 418752 420756 418761 416766 419769 421771 419773
      417771 414772 415775 412776 407779 401786 396788 393791
      383796 381802 383805 390799 398794 405792 409797 411801
      413805 413810 412814 415817 418821 420818 423811 424809
      426810 430813 433819 435823 439825 446829 450831 453826
      453820 448816 443807 440805 435804 431801 427798 426795
      426791 427788 429786 434778 434771 435766 438760 442756
      447754 451750 458730 460723 462718 464708
 0.01 477929 472917 459917 455915 450911 446906 441903 438899
      434897 426891 422888 416888 410889 406891 391892 386895
      384896 381894 379887 378884 379880 379864 380858 380851
      378835 377829 375823 371810 369804 365798 362794 358796
      356801 352807 343813 337821 332824 330829 321847 318853
      315858 312863 310865 307867 297871 291874 287878 283881
      280884 276888 273888 271886 268882 263882 262895 264902
      266907 273915 277920 274925 271929 269937 267948 263959
      261964 257968 251974 252984 242989 238992 237996 240003
      241009 241016 243020 246023 251025 258033 263041 262051
      261057 261062 263069 266074 267076 270079 278085 283093
      285097 289101 294104 298107 301110 307111 313108 315107
      317104 321101 327100 338097 342094 345088 347082 348076
      350070 353065 358056 360052 360047 362043 366028 371017
      373012 377008 381002 383000 386001 391002 394000 401991
      405989 408984 414977 422967 427956 433955 440955 448955
      453959 461962 467962 471959 474956 475951 473945 472942
      477929
 0.01 454061 453056 449054 448048 446043 445038 441038 441041
      444046 446051 446057 447063 450066 454061 454061
 0.01 449080 450078 449077 449075 448074 447073 446071 445071
      443070 441069 441072 443074 444076 446077 448078 449080
      449080
 0.01 430185 429182 427184 426187 426189 428187 430185 430185
 0.01 429168 429166 429168 429168
 0.01 425700 425698 424696 423694 422693 421692 420691 418690
      416690 415690 413691 413692 413694 413696 414697 415698
      416699 417700 418702 418703 420703 422703 423702 425701
      425700
 0.01 431862 429859 429857 429855 429854 427854 425855 424855
      424858 424860 424862 426862 428864 429864 431862 431862
 0.01 422140 422138 420137 420138 418139 418140 418142 420140
      421140 422140
 0.01 285804 283802 279800 277799 274799 270796 268797 266800
      268804 272806 276807 280808 284806 285804
 0.01 256789 256784 253783 250788 246794 244801 242809 242812
      240817 241821 246819 247817 251810 254804 256797 255792
      256789
 0.25 530205 531200 531194 530188 526177 523171 519166 514165
      508164 503163 498161 491155 485151 479149 479146 482146
      486146 490144 488136 485133 479131 474132 471138 470140
      467141 463142 459146 458151 458154 461158 464161 471164
      478165 483167 487171 496179 502186 507192 511195 516198
      520202 522205 526207 530205
 0.25 516267 517261 516257 514250 512243 509238 506235 505231
      503223 502217 499210 496204 492201 481203 461214 450220
      450222 451225 454228 453233 451234 448237 450252 450261
      452268 454271 457269 461263 464257 469253 473249 478251
      491255 494251 495246 497245 501248 504252 504255 498266
      503270 508270 513269 516267
 0.25 409947 408941 405940 402943 398943 389947 386949 383952
      382954 378953 375952 372947 370939 366932 365920 364906
      363894 362882 360873 359862 355843 354836 352832 347831
      344835 340844 338847 334850 330855 326863 319875 310890
      304886 300887 298889 292895 291897 291902 293905 297906
      299905 299908 294916 292920 289923 283929 278935 274941
      271948 269957 268968 266979 263987 259994 253000 252004
      252008 255015 265025 273030 279036 282043 282049 280053
      280058 277059 279066 281074 287079 296083 299086 305085
      311081 315079 318076 327065 332060 334056 336051 337046
      339042 343034 347026 352017 358002 361995 362991 364992
      370984 373981 375984 375988 377990 380989 386983 394968
      403957 409947
 0.50 496226 498221 497217 494212 491209 486206 478208 469212
      461217 457219 455221 462231 461239 465239 467237 466235
      465229 472224 477222 482224 489224 494226 496226
 0.50 483242 484240 484239 483237 482236 481234 479232 478233
      477233 476234 475234 474237 474239 475241 476243 478244
      479245 481244 483242 483242
 0.50 483161 482159 480158 479160 480160 481161 483161
 0.50 485138 484136 482135 481135 479135 478137 479138 480139
      482139 484139 485138
 0.50 472158 472156 470154 469153 467153 466154 466157 467157
      468158 470159 472158 472158
 0.50 357925 358915 357906 355889 355882 354877 351870 349864
      347854 345849 343848 342851 338858 332866 329870 326874
      320886 315898 309907 303916 286932 279939 274949 271963
      271981 268993 269000 271006 283028 287039 291049 294061
      291067 292073 295075 301077 307074 311072 321065 323063
      323059 321057 317058 315057 316050 326045 332034 334032
      334027 334020 333005 333991 335975 339970 343966 349958
      353945 357925
 0.50 315018 315016 315013 314013 313013 311013 310013 309013
      307014 305015 304017 304019 305021 305023 306026 307027
      307026 308025 310024 311024 312022 312021 313020 314018
      315018
 1.00 487218 488216 487214 486213 486212 484211 482210 481210
      479210 477210 476211 475212 474214 473216 475217 476218
      478218 480219 481219 482219 483219 485218 487218 487218
 1.00 472218 473216 472216 471216 470216 468215 467217 466219
      467221 469221 470220 471219 472218
 1.00 348921 349910 348899 347890 345884 339878 336878 334879
      331884 327891 319903 312913 303924 299928 294932 288936
      283940 279945 277952 274960 274968 276974 279978 288981
      291988 291996 292999 295001 300002 304001 310998 316986
      319978 323972 332962 336957 339950 344936 347928 348921
 1.50 482216 482215 482214 481212 479212 478213 478215 478216
      480216 482216 482216
 1.50 341917 341907 339901 337895 335893 331895 317911 309922
      303930 285942 281947 278953 275964 277970 280972 284972
      290971 296970 298971 299973 299982 298987 298991 300992
      303987 307982 315975 323966 328956 334945 338934 340924
      341917
 2.00 336926 336918 335912 332910 326909 322909 319912 314920
      308927 303933 287943 280949 279954 278960 278964 280966
      285967 289966 293964 297961 301960 305960 305966 303971
      303975 307975 310973 317966 323958 328949 331941 336926
 3.00 327939 326931 323926 317925 314929 305936 301940 296942
      290945 287949 284954 285958 287958 293956 297954 303952
      310952 312956 311961 312964 314962 321953 326941 327939
 4.00 309945 308945 307943 307941 306941 305942 304943 303945
      303946 304947 305947 306947 307947 308945 309945
 4.00 300947 299947 297946 296946 295947 294949 293949 294952
      296951 297950 298949 299948 300947

24HR QP VT 05/12Z
 0.01 528191 529183 528176 526164 524150 521140 513122 511118
      510113 508102 506091 503076 505061 507050 508030 509023
      510015 509009 508000 507995 508992 510992 513994 517991
      520989 523984 536973 536967 534962 531951 528939 528926
      528912 523904 511887 508880 507874 512865 517857 520853
      519850 510831 505821 499813 489800 478787 432728 425721
      418716 409712 406709 402708 399705 395705 391708 387710
      373717 366722 356727 348732 340739 330756 324762 320769
      317774 315779 313789 310800 309810 307820 301826 290836
      285839 282842 275850 273854 272859 269868 265879 262887
      260892 260896 260907 257918 255927 251937 246945 243951
      244961 246980 247983 246987 244990 237993 247006 251014
      251026 249034 249039 249046 250050 251058 256065 263070
      271075 285083 296084 303081 312065 323049 326036 324029
      324023 325018 327012 327008 329997 331984 337976 343969
      343960 335957 334954 336952 338949 344944 351939 356940
      361943 369948 376954 380956 383957 392954 410946 419942
      424941 429942 440943 445943 448947 453954 457962 462969
      465972 469972 472974 476975 484980 489980 492983 495985
      497988 488013 483022 480026 476029 461037 455042 451046
      448051 444059 440068 439072 438079 435089 431087 427083
      424079 422073 426063 426058 425056 421058 415059 403058
      402062 403065 406070 409073 414080 414087 413094
 0.01 413094 398108 395112 397118 399123 400127 402128 407131
      410128 415129 416135 415139 414141 410146 402153 404164
      406168 409171 414177 414183 413191 411197 410201 408204
      407212 408215 411216 409225 406228 401229 396231 396238
      400242 405250 412259 415263 418264 424275 426280 429284
      432290 434294 442301 447301 451305 459313 464315 468319
      480324 485323 488321 491318 494314 501303 506293 512280
      515267 516258 516251 516248 513245 510240 508235 504231
      501227 499225 500222 508219 512218 516214 523204 526197
      528191
 0.01 487195 487190 485184 482181 478178 473178 471181 468187
      466192 465196 465199 467201 472201 475201 480202 484199
      486197 487195
 0.25 501275 502272 502269 500265 495261 488260 486258 486254
      487251 486246 483242 480238 477237 470237 464232 466226
      470223 474222 476218 477214 475212 470212 463213 458212
      454210 450210 448210 446207 444205 441206 436211 430212
      426216 421221 419230 413233 410235 410239 415245 421250
      426251 432250 446257 455258 462261 467260 475261 482262
      485268 487274 489278 493280 498278 501275
 0.25 502152 503147 502141 499136 494130 490126 484122 477120
      474116 472117 471123 466127 462131 457130 455128 453128
      450130 445134 443141 436138 432140 430145 431150 432157
      439169 444174 443181 442190 444198 446200 450200 453196
      462186 469173 473168 476166 479166 485163 485156 481151
      473148 470143 473141 478143 483148 488154 492156 498156
      502152
 0.25 490864 487858 485854 482851 478850 473849 471847 471843
      470836 469831 464819 462815 459812 446797 435785 431786
      429791 429795 427797 423799 424806 426810 429804 436812
      435818 436823 448836 452840 454843 453848 451853 447863
      440863 421872 415874 411876 409879 407886 405891 405898
      406905 403914 404917 406919 411919 418919 423917 427909
      442897 447889 449883 448875 447871 449868 450866 453866
      461862 469858 472860 476864 479867 483868 488867 490864
 0.25 459116 460103 457096 456093 454093 448092 442093 437095
      435096 433093 428091 427093 428096 429099 429102 423105
      422107 422112 417114 414115 417117 424118 427118 430120
      436118 441120 448123 456121 459116
 0.25 451080 451078 450075 448074 447075 447077 448079 449080
      449081 451080
 0.25 441803 439801 437800 437801 438802 439801 441803 441803
 0.25 381764 382760 381757 378754 371752 363749 355748 351751
      347754 343760 338767 334776 328792 323808 320816 316823
      313827 309831 302835 289845 283850 280855 278860 277866
      280876 283885 283898 282910 279918 277925 272931 267938
      262946 259954 257963 255972 254977 255983 258991 258997
      257003 258009 258018 268032 272040 275048 277055 283061
      287063 293064 301059 311049 316042 318038 319033 319024
      320018 321015 320003 321997 322992 324988 325983 320982
      315981 314979 315973 319965 325950 329941 332931 339915
      355887 359879 362870 367862 371855 367833 368824 367818
      366814 362804 360798 359791 364773 367769 373768 378766
      381764
 0.50 490139 491137 489134 486131 484130 481129 478129 476129
      473130 471133 471138 474139 477139 480140 482140 485140
      489141 490139
 0.50 469243 464238 458234 456234 456230 459222 457216 453215
      450215 437216 426220 424223 425226 429231 430234 428235
      426236 419237 417239 417241 421246 425248 428247 434245
      439242 447244 452244 456245 459243 469243
 0.50 474161 473157 472154 469147 462144 458143 453148 451149
      447148 441145 437145 435147 434153 437160 448168 448173
      451180 452184 455186 460183 463180 463176 457172 456168
      457165 463164 468165 473162 474161
 0.50 452100 446099 439097 436100 432099 431104 429106 426108
      432111 436115 443117 447114 449111 449107 450102 452100
 0.50 356846 356835 355824 354815 352808 352796 348787 345782
      342780 340782 336788 333795 329809 323822 320829 316834
      310839 306838 301839 297843 292846 287851 284856 281865
      282870 285872 288873 290876 292884 293891 294900 290907
      286912 281927 276930 272937 266947 260961 259969 260976
      263982 264985 265990 266005 266011 264014 265018 268021
      273025 277030 279037 279046 283051 289053 294053 297051
      303046 313039 316021 318015 316009 317992 309990 306983
      307978 308974 311967 317955 324941 328928 338899 352874
      355868 356861 355852 356846
 1.00 450222 450219 447218 445218 442218 438217 436219 434220
      431221 429221 431222 434223 435226 439226 441226 444225
      446225 449224 450222
 1.00 443108 442107 440107 440108 442110 443108
 1.00 347838 346830 344825 343822 342815 341807 338802 335805
      334811 331821 327828 323837 318845 312853 309862 305871
      306875 306879 306886 307892 311896 311900 310904 307915
      303923 296930 289934 281937 276940 273943 269953 266962
      265967 266974 268979 272981 277982 282985 289988 294986
      296982 301975 310957 315949 319940 323930 326920 327909
      328896 329890 332885 336878 339868 342856 342850 344846
      347838
 1.00 310007 311002 308999 299999 293995 289000 284005 285010
      287014 290020 296025 301025 305017 308011 310007
 1.00 301859 301855 301851 301846 298846 296848 294850 292851
      290854 289856 288859 287862 288865 291864 293863 297862
      299861 301859
 1.50 338845 336840 330843 325853 320864 317869 314874 311878
      309884 308888 310890 316891 319896 320898 322898 325893
      327886 331874 333868 334861 338847 338845
 1.50 321922 322916 320912 317911 313913 305926 300931 294936
      281943 275949 272956 270964 269970 270975 273976 276975
      279973 283972 291974 294975 297973 301967 305960 312944
      316938 319928 321922
 1.50 299008 299006 298005 297006 296007 295008 295009 294010
      294011 296012 297010 298009 299008
 2.00 331854 331852 329854 329855 328857 329859 330857 331855
      331854
 2.00 328872 328867 328863 329860 327857 325861 323866 321869
      319873 317877 316880 320879 320883 323883 325879 327874
      328872
 2.00 318924 318919 316917 314918 312921 308926 304930 299935
      296939 290943 285946 280950 276954 273960 272968 273970
      276971 281968 297966 301961 303956 304951 304947 303945
      306943 310939 314934 318924
 2.00 315881 314881 312881 312884 313885 314884 314883 315881

24HR QP VT 06/12Z
 0.01 542982 543969 543963 542958 541947 539936 535914 530888
      527878 526874 524870 522866 519864 514861 508865 505870
      502873 501878 498883 495885 493883 490880 489876 486874
      485875 478877 473878 470882 470887 470895 470899 468903
      468914 469920 470925 467929 464932 462936 462944 463955
      465966 466975 464985 461992 456000 451016 448024 445030
      440039 438044 435044 432042 426043 420048 418049 417053
      412054 408052 406051 407048 408045 408040 405041 403044
      401050 397052 395055 390062 386070 385072 387075 390076
      392080 395087 396092 395098 394110 390114 391117 394121
      394128 394134 395138 394151 396163 399182 401190 402194
      402197 400199 387201 389207 395212 401216 407221 400228
      397229 393232 392241 393251 394259 395263 398265 414274
      418281 423289 428296 433303 438309 444314 451317 459320
      469324 473324 478325 484323 490320 494315 497312 498308
      500301 501294 501284 501278 504276 503273 504266 508264
      510257 510254 510246 506230 503222 499216 494209 487201
      488193 484184 481178 476171 472165 467159 462153 459148
      456145 447143 437141 434146 430147 426144 425141 423141
      421145 418148 413148 410145 407142 405136 406130 409127
      413120 419112 423108 426112 429120 432121 434119 446112
      453108 455107 457106 459108 461126 464134 467137 470139
      475140 478144 484151 490156 492158 497159 503155 506153
      507148 503142 500134 495128 491120 482102 478097 474091
      470083 470078 469074 468069 471066 476062 484058 490051
      499038 504032 506029 509027 519028 524021 532008 538994
      542982
 0.01 503811 502800 501794 500791 496786 493783 492779 473753
      468747 463741 459735 455728 457720 456707 450701 447692
      444683 439677 436670 432665 430661 425662 415665 399670
      395672 391674 382676 365680 359682 356685 351691 343704
      336714 329715 326720 323728 319737 312749 279798 271809
      266814 259813 242819 237826 236832 236837 235841 230848
      229855 229863 231870 235878 239884 243891 241925 248962
      254966 260968 263970 269970 278970 285970 288977 290985
      293993 295001 296009 292024 290029 292031 294033 299032
      314029 319025 324020 329014 331008 337987 338984 340980
      345976 350972 354965 358960 364957 378949 382943 386936
      389928 391925 394924 398917 400909 403898 403892 405888
      407868 410851 408829 407816 405807 404801 402796 404790
      407789 409791 414805 416809 420809 422802 425793 428788
      427784 420786 414790 408788 401787 399781 397778 396773
      395771 392762 387753 385749 384745 388739 394734 399738
      404741 411746 431771 433779 434784 436785 439782 441785
      443789 442795 442799 441803 438806 435811 435814 437816
      439820 444820 448819 451816 455812 459811 462812 471813
      486816 498822 502821 501818 503811
 0.01 482852 481847 479842 476837 473835 471833 467831 464832
      464839 466844 468848 470851 473853 477855 480854 482852
 0.01 455852 455850 454847 454845 453845 451845 449845 449848
      449850 449853 450855 451857 453857 453855 455852 455852
 0.01 436093 433085 430077 427070 423068 421072 417078 411080
      409079 406082 407086 410088 414089 415094 417102 420104
      425105 429105 432102 432097 434095 436093
 0.01 433035 433033 433030 431028 430028 428025 426027 424030
      424032 426034 428035 429035 431035 433035 433035
 0.25 497252 497243 495239 493235 488231 483224 477223 474232
      475235 479237 481236 484239 486242 486246 485249 486251
      491255 493256 496255 497252
 0.25 519973 520959 519952 517948 512942 505939 491943 485948
      481954 477965 476976 474986 472999 472007 472014 475018
      491016 498013 503008 506005 509003 515996 516992 517987
      517980 518974 519973
 0.25 479251 479246 475243 468237 466233 464231 466227 468222
      469215 462213 453210 445209 441211 437212 430216 424222
      419230 413233 409235 409239 411244 414247 422252 430257
      440260 450262 458261 465259 473256 475253 479251
 0.25 393872 392863 389855 383837 379828 377824 376818 375807
      373799 371791 367784 364774 362763 362753 364746 368738
      371729 372721 370715 366714 363715 357719 354717 351714
      347712 343715 338720 334725 327738 319752 304778 297790
      294799 293802 293809 292812 289814 283817 275820 267824
      256831 251836 246844 246855 246861 248865 251871 257874
      262878 264880 265883 267893 267902 265910 263915 263921
      268937 271943 275948 280954 288957 304959 308960 311963
      316970 320975 325978 330978 333976 337973 339970 347957
      351951 357945 367937 378925 382920 386912 391895 393882
      393872
 0.50 507965 508958 505955 501955 495960 491966 487972 484982
      482992 484995 486995 492995 498990 502984 505975 507965
      507965
 0.50 479233 478230 476230 476232 478234 479233
 0.50 460245 462242 461240 456238 453239 448237 444235 443231
      451228 453225 454223 452220 445218 437221 434223 431227
      431238 431241 433243 438245 448247 457247 460245
 0.50 387888 386881 384873 381865 377857 363832 362822 363815
      363809 363804 361793 355777 353767 353757 358746 361739
      362735 361729 352724 347725 343724 339728 323750 317762
      311775 306788 305796 306807 305817 301823 296824 289823
      281824 274826 263835 258840 256846 258852 262857 271863
      275870 278877 282885 284892 285896 284900 280905 278911
      279918 277924 275928 275933 276940 278945 281947 293952
      300953 308953 316952 323949 333942 341943 345943 348941
      358935 362928 366923 373918 377913 381907 383901 386894
      387888
 1.00 376893 377886 377881 375878 371875 365876 361878 356879
      351876 346873 338868 331869 328872 325884 322890 322896
      319908 318916 316922 311931 305940 303944 304945 307946
      313944 317941 325935 328931 331926 334922 338918 343916
      348919 352921 356919 362910 370903 373900 376894 376893
 1.00 351740 350736 348736 341742 335749 329753 324760 320768
      318777 316785 316791 317796 317802 316807 309824 305830
      300831 296830 286829 278831 275837 272841 271845 279848
      282850 285854 290872 294880 298882 302880 306873 308869
      311867 330862 334861 336858 341851 347833 349826 351814
      352810 351803 349793 344771 343765 344759 347752 350745
      351740
 1.00 299920 300918 299916 299914 298912 297911 296912 295912
      294914 293915 293916 293918 293920 294921 295921 297921
      299920 299920
 1.50 369891 369890 367889 365889 363891 363892 363894 362896
      362897 362898 364899 365898 366898 367896 368894 369893
      369891
 1.50 346805 344789 340786 338781 337775 335771 332770 328768
      325771 322774 323783 329792 327797 324802 321806 318810
      315822 311833 291839 293844 296849 297856 299861 310859
      313860 317858 320855 329848 335839 340829 343818 346805
 2.00 338815 337810 333810 328814 321817 318825 316832 316837
      317843 319845 323844 328840 331833 334826 337819 338815

$$





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