Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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168
FXUS04 KWBC 210658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT FRI APR 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 21/1200 UTC THRU APR 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC...

A SLOWLY EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH...ONE THAT WILL ELONGATE WITH TIME
AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONSTRICTED BY THE RIDGES NORTH AND
SOUTH...WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS (COUPLED
JET STREAKS) IN GENERATING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF THE
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT. WHILE NOT CORRELATED WITH THE STRONGEST
DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS (BOTH GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES CAMS) IS FOR AN EXPANSIVE
SWATH OF 1+ INCH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS FROM EASTERN OK-SOUTHEAST KS
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MO/IL...NORTHERN AR...AND WESTERN KY/TN.
GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE HIGHER FORECAST CAPES AND PW
VALUES...ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICALLY-FAVORABLE COUPLED UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAKS AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX (~2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM)...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...PARTICULARLY OVER THE OZARKS IN NORTHWEST
AR-SOUTHEAST MO GIVEN THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. WPC UTILIZED A
NON-NAM/NON-SREF MUTLI-MODEL BLEND WITH THE QPF...LEAD BY THE
MEANS (INCLUDING HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE)...WHICH COMPARES FAVORABLY TO
THE PARALLEL NBM. THE NAM AND SREF MEAN WERE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF...FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND PW...AND THUS WERE NOT UTILIZED.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 524052 525043 526035 526021 527002 527992 526985 524979
      524970 525954 524943 523934 523925 524917 523902 521888
      518877 517873 514875 511887 510893 510899 507911 507915
      505921 503935 501946 500953 499959 497966 497975 495977
      495982 495991 494006 494023 494028 492031 492039 491055
      490061 486062 478061 475059 471058 456043 450038 447036
      442033 439029 436027 430022 425018 423015 417006 410998
      405990 404985 404977 404960 404946 404940 402935 401925
      400914 400902 401897 401889 401872 400857 397845 395835
      392822 392817 395813 399805 403796 408786 409778 410776
      413775 424773 427771 432769 437769 440770 443777 444781
      444784 443789 439801 438805 438812 440815 444817 450824
      453828 455832 461840 466849 470853 472852 478845 484836
      490825 493816 497807 506785 510776 510766 510752 509740
      508731 507726 503715 496686 495678 492669 487660 481652
      474648 467644 459643 455643 450644 442647 435652 429658
      426659 422663 419667 415665 411663 407665 400669 398674
      396680 396686 398691 400706 399713 398720 401731 401735
      399737 393738 389741 386738 380734 374733 368737 365738
      364735 363729 360725 356723 352725 350728 347738 343746
      339753 336764 336770 337773 339773 343770 347769 351772
      353776 351780 347784 346789 346797 346805 345809 343816
      340825 337832 332839 329845 328850 329862 331867 332874
      331881 330885 327889 326893 324898 324905 324913 320913
      315905 311901 308900 302901 298905 296911 298915 291949
      301956 306948 307944 310942 323930 326926 327930 326932
      323942 318950 313957 310962 306966 303977 302982 301986
      302990 302996 318990 335988 337995 339999 342001 350005
      355011
 0.01 355011 371041 372045 370048 373052 377055 380056 382059
      385062 384067 385074 391081 404080 412084 416091 421098
      423101 423105 422108 418110 418113 419116 422115 431117
      439118 443127 446137 446143 449146 450153 453156 457159
      459163 462162 466159 468160 473159 477160 496164 501168
      509170 512168 513161 516149 519122 521092 522080 520074
      520067 524052
 0.01 431246 431244 430243 429242 428241 426240 424240 423239
      421239 419239 418240 417240 416241 417243 418243 420244
      422244 423245 425245 427246 428247 430247 431246
 0.25 497740 497734 496727 495720 493717 490715 488712 486704
      475672 472670 468671 461676 455680 449683 443681 436678
      429676 426677 424679 419686 417691 416695 415703 414712
      417718 420721 421724 420732 421734 424736 431738 435737
      437735 441730 447724 453723 455727 455731 455742 459749
      476774 482779 485781 488781 492777 494768 495759 495751
      497740
 0.25 469095 469092 467090 466090 464084 462078 457070 450061
      443055 434051 430049 428046 423039 410024 402018 398015
      396010 390990 389978 390968 391960 392956 394950 394942
      392926 391920 392912 392899 391886 391863 390857 388852
      385848 383842 380837 379830 382819 384807 383801 380798
      378794 379789 381780 385772 385765 383760 377752 373752
      370754 367757 366770 364780 361788 360798 361806 359810
      354820 349843 349856 348867 343887 342897 340911 332932
      329942 326950 322960 321965 321970 323973 328974 333972
      336972 339974 342983 345987 350991 356994 362001 367011
      370020 374028 381036 385039 390043 398048 404053 407057
      412060 419063 426069 427074 427078 424083 424087 425089
      431097 434099 437098 441094 444105 447107 452108 454105
      458103 460101 458098 461094 465093 469095
 0.50 489726 481723 479720 476714 478709 478702 474690 472684
      471681 469680 465682 461686 456693 451695 445696 440698
      434699 429702 427705 425707 426711 428714 434715 439713
      442713 447710 455705 459708 461713 463721 464727 466733
      469739 472751 475753 480756 483756 485753 488749 488740
      488733 489729 489726
 0.50 456086 457081 456077 453072 449068 445065 438063 433066
      432069 432073 433080 437086 440084 444081 449084 454087
      456086
 0.50 423053 422048 420043 415036 409031 402026 393024 389026
      388031 389036 393039 398041 401043 406049 410053 413054
      418055 421054 423053
 0.50 389943 387933 387918 388906 387895 387871 386865 384861
      381859 378855 376843 374838 374831 375821 375816 373812
      370812 366814 360821 356829 355840 354851 352863 350873
      348881 345893 344905 342914 339922 335932 333942 330953
      329957 329962 332965 338966 342968 343973 346982 352987
      361990 364994 367997 371004 374008 378010 382008 384003
      385998 385993 382982 384972 385962 386954 389946 389943
 0.50 376764 375760 372761 369766 368770 368775 367782 369788
      373789 375785 375778 373772 373770 376765 376764
 1.00 450078 450075 448073 446072 445070 443071 441072 443073
      444075 446076 448077 449078 450078
 1.00 384945 385941 384938 382930 382924 383915 383884 382880
      381875 376872 370862 368861 365863 365872 363877 357876
      356873 354877 352882 351888 352894 353899 349904 349909
      348912 345917 340929 341934 340941 338948 339957 343960
      345965 347972 350978 354981 360980 364978 368973 370966
      374963 379961 380954 383947 384945
 1.00 371828 371824 370822 368822 366825 365827 364831 362834
      361836 361839 360843 362845 365846 366843 368840 369838
      369835 370831 371828
 1.00 363863 363861 363858 363856 362854 360854 358856 358857
      358859 357860 356861 356863 355865 355866 357868 356870
      356872 357874 358872 358870 359869 361867 362865 363863
 1.00 361910 361907 360906 358905 357907 355908 353909 352910
      351912 351914 351915 353916 355915 357915 358914 359914
      360912 360911 361910
 1.50 379938 379929 379918 379905 377895 377886 375883 372885
      369895 370902 369913 367917 364920 361922 355922 350923
      348925 346929 346934 345945 348967 349971 351975 356974
      359972 364965 367958 371951 374949 377947 379938
 2.00 371927 366926 362927 359926 353928 351934 352943 354948
      359950 361958 364956 365954 368949 370941 371934 371927

$$





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