Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150944
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
543 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 15/1200 UTC THRU JUL 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S....

WE ARE STUCK IN A REPEATING PATTERN IN WHICH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FORM ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE AND SEPARATELY ALONG A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER MS / TN VALLEY BEFORE MEETING IN THE
MIDDLE. LOOPS OF THE CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FOR THE
700-500 MB LAYER SHOW PW MAXIMA IN THE VICINITY OF WHERE THE
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. EXTRAPOLATING THIS THINKING TO THE MODEL H7-5 RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS POINTS US TOWARD A SATURDAY FORECAST THAT FAVORS
THE 00Z GFS AND NSSL WRF...WITH THE 18-21Z MAXIMUM IN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHERN
ALABAMA / FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. COLLISION OF OUTFLOWS WITHIN A
SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF MS/AL WHERE THE WPC MANUAL AREAL AVERAGE QPF IS
MAXIMIZED.

A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS SET TO UNFOLD OVER THE CAROLINAS...ALTHOUGH
A BIT MORE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL INFLOW HERE...MAY GIVE COLLIDING THE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
MORE STAYING POWER / LONGEVITY...ALLOWING FOR SOME EXCESSIVE LOCAL
RAINFALL TOTALS.

THERE IS AN EXTENSION OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO BACK
WEST INTO TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE...NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS AN INVERTED TROUGH / EASTERLY
WAVE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCING
ANOTHER RELATIVE MAXIMUM SWATH OF RAINFALL OVER EAST TX AND
WESTERN LA. AGAIN HERE SOME COLLISIONS OR FOCUS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER LOCAL TOTALS...ESPECIALLY THE UPPER
TX COAST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.


...SOUTHWEST U.S...

THE DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA FOR RELATIVELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A BROAD TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OF
0.75 INCHES OR MORE FALLING INTO PARTS OF DURANGO AND CHIHUAHUA
WHICH FEED INTO THE RIO GRANDE. OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN ON THE
U.S. SIDE OF THE BORDER...THERE IS A MULTI-MODEL SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IN THE EL PASO AREA PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE MORNING HOURS.
AGAIN THE CIRA LAYER PW PRODUCT FOR 700-500 MB DID SHOW A SLUG OF
MOISTURE MIGRATING INTO THAT REGION...AND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS FORM
THEY WILL EXPERIENCE SOME ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW AT 850-700
MB TO SUPPORT REGENERATION AND SMALL SCALE TRAINING ALONG
OUTFLOWS...RESULTING IN A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL.


...COLORADO / KANSAS...

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA DILIGENTLY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE ARE SEVERAL FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE WITH AMPLE
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE COINCIDENT BENEATH A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW /
SHEAR AXIS. THE DEEP LAYER WIND SPEEDS...HOWEVER...WERE SO WEAK
THAT THE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TENDED TO BE VERY SMALL
SCALE AND NOT SUPPORTED MUCH AFTER DARK. ALL IT WOULD TAKE IS A
TIMELY ARRIVAL OF GREATER UPPER DIVERGENCE TO ENHANCE THIS SMALL
WEATHER SYSTEM AND ITS RAINFALL PRODUCTION. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING...OVER-FORECASTING THE QPF PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE
SMALL SCALE OF THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS. WE THEREFORE CAME UP
WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER NUMBERS FOR AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE
UPDATED FORECAST. WE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE ON THE HEAVY SIDE
OVERALL...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITHIN SOUTHERN/EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. WPC QPF USED A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY...00Z GFS...AND OUR IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES / GREAT LAKES...

A REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A GREAT LAKES /
NEW ENGLAND TROUGH...WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT STATES TODAY. MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT...AND OUR EXPECTATIONS GENERALLY FIT THE SHAPE
OF THE SREF 6-HOUR QPF PROBABILITY FIELDS. MEANWHILE ENERGETIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL MAKE USE OF SCANT BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OREGON TO WESTERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN.
AS THIS ACTIVITY ROLLS TOWARD SOMEWHAT LOWER TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL/WESTERN MONTANA IT WILL ENCOUNTER A WARM FRONT WHERE
POOLED MOISTURE/CAPE MAY HELP THE ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE INTO THE
LATE EVENING. FOR THESE REASONS WE WERE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS
WITH QPF COVERAGE COMPARED TO MANY OF THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE
WIND PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY LOCAL RAINFALL
UNLESS A STORM WERE TO LATCH ONTO THE WARM FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW.



DAY 2/3...

...SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND PEAK VALUES IN THE US OVER SOUTHERN AZ OF 1.75-2
INCHES.
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A EAST TO WEST
FASHION ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ADD
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC ASCENT TO RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY/ORGANIZATION OVER PORTIONS OF AZ/NM ON BOTH DAYS 2 AND 3
WITH A 700MB INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO AZ. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ AND WESTERN NM.

ONE QUESTION EACH DAY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...AS
WITH THE BETTER FORCING TYPICALLY COMES MORE IN THE WAY OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH CUTS BACK ON INSTABILITY.  THE
COMBINATION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES DOES
SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF AZ
ON BOTH DAYS 2 AND 3. WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH
DAY...WITH LOCALIZED 1-1.5" AN HOUR TOTALS. GIVEN THAT THE
COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE ONLY ISOLATED IN
NATURE...A MARGINAL RISK SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. HOWEVER WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ASSESS IF A SLIGHT RISK IS
NEEDED ON FUTURE UPDATES.

...EASTERN CO/KS/NE...

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A COMPACT 700-500 MB SHORTWAVE
GETTING STUCK UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEEKEND ACROSS CO....SLOWLY EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
WITH THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE EACH DAY. ON DAY 2 (12Z SUN-12Z MON) THE 0Z NAM AND 3KM
NAM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...OUTPUTTING A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS/NE. FEEL LIKE THESE
SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE...HOWEVER ON THE OTHER HAND THE
ECMWF MAY BE TOO LIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL BE SLOW
MOVING GIVEN WEAK MEAN FLOW.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY PLUS ANOMALOUS PWAT
VALUES SUPPORTS EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
FORM. AGAIN CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...AND
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SO THINK A MARGINAL
RISK IS WARRANTED FOR NOW. ON DAY 3 THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
KS/NE...AND MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY EXCESSIVE AREA ON DAY 3
AS THE FEATURE SHOULD BE LESS PRONOUNCED BY THEN AND CURRENTLY
LEANING AGAINST THERE BEING A FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS THE 0Z NAM AND OLD 12Z PARALLEL GFS STILL
SHOW HEAVY QPF OVER KS/NE WITH THIS FEATURE.


...SOUTHEAST/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TEXAS...

A SOUTHWARD DRIFTING FRONT WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT AND PWAT VALUES OF NEAR 2" ALONG THE FRONT/MOISTURE
AXIS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY. THINK POCKETS OF
2-4" OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTENT
OF THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM SOUTHEAST TX ALL THE WAY TO THE
CAROLINAS. THE MOST FOCUSED ACTIVITY ON DAY 2 ( 12Z SUN-12Z MON)
IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS EASTERN GA/SC/NC. THIS REGION WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS THE
BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. BASED ON THIS ENHANCED FORCING AND
SLOW MOVING FRONT...AND AFTER TAKING A LOOK AT THE 0Z HIGH RES
MODELS...OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. THE
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED 3-5" RAINFALL TOTALS IN CELL MERGERS COULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MORE CONCENTRATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
OVER THIS AREA. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION...AS LIKELY TO BE SOME MORNING CLOUD COVER. SO NOT
A SURE BET WE WILL SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT ENOUGH OF A THREAT
TO WARRANT A SIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST/FL/EASTERN GULF COAST...SEA BREEZE AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP TRIGGER DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THE MOIST AIRMASS. AN INVERTED TROUGH AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST OF TEXAS AND THEN
INLAND...BRINGING CONVECTION INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS SOUTHEAST. IN
GENERAL HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE FOCUSED IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF CELL MERGERS. HOWEVER WITH PWATS OF 2"+...AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT LIKELY EXISTS...WITH A BROAD MARGINAL
RISK EXTENDING ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS ON DAY 2.

ON DAY 3 (12Z MON-12Z TUE) THE MOISTURE AXIS GETS PUSHED EVEN MORE
TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COASTS. MORE UNCERTAINTY BY
THIS TIME ON THE LOCATION OF OUTFLOW AND REMNANT BOUNDARIES...AND
THUS ON HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE. IN GENERAL MODEL QPF IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE DURING THE DAY 3 PERIOD AS WELL. THUS WILL NOT
INCLUDE NAY RISK AREAS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MAY VERY WELL HAVE
TO INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK ALONG AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
MOISTURE AXIS AT SOME POINT DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS TO ADJACENT UPPER MS VALLEY...

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THE MODELS INDICATE A LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER ND/MN. SOME
QUESTION AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY BEEN WEAKER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW OPTED FOR A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. FEEL LIKE QPF TOTALS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT MAYBE NOT AS HIGH AS WHAT IS
SHOWN BY THE 0Z PARALLEL GFS. THE SETUP CERTAINLY WARRANTS A
MARGINAL RISK...AND IF MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE MORE ROBUST
GFS/NAM IDEA THEN AN EVENTUAL UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE
NEEDED.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP BUILD A
TROUGH INTO THE EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONVECTION ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WESTERN PA/NY COULD BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND PWAT VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.
THUS CURRENTLY NOT GOING WITH ANY RISK AREAS...ALTHOUGH LOW FFG
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY END UP FORCING THE NEED FOR A
MARGINAL RISK AT SOME POINT IF THEY DO NOT RECOVER IN TIME.

THIS TROUGH BECOMES SLOW MOVING BY MONDAY...WITH A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE FRONT WITHIN THE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
INTERIOR NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD (12Z MON-12Z TUE). STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE THE TROUGH
ENDS UP BEING. THE 0Z ECMWF/UKMET HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND THUS LOWER WITH QPF AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THEIR 12Z
RUNS. THE 0Z GFS/GFSX/NAM REMAIN SLOWER AND WETTER. THIS
UNCERTAINTY COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT PWAT VALUES ARE NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE...PREVENT THE NEED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR NOW. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

BURKE/CHENARD


24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 525073 521067 516063 511058 505055 490052 482051 478052
      475053 469056 463059 459062 454066 455069 459070 459081
      462083 462086 461088 458086 456081 454073 449068 447066
      443066 436067 434070 435073 437074 439072 441078 440084
      435085 431084 428084 425087 423091 424097 422100 420102
      420106 416106 414103 412095 411093 407093 404095 402099
      400103 397101 394098 392100 391104 392106 392109 391111
      386110 382110 380112 378114 377119 373126 375128 378128
      384125 389120 394117 399114 408115 416114 419114 421112
      425111 428114 430116 434117 435114 440113 443115 444119
      442129 438136 437144 438151 441152 445158 451162 452167
      449173 451177 450180 451183 454184 457183 462181 465178
      467174 465171 466168 472171 478170 483166 486164 489165
      491169 490173 493175 496172 500165 504158 507157 510157
      505144 507133 512128 517122 520113 521104 522097 521094
      520087 521081 525073
 0.01 497858 497853 493849 489851 488856 485866 484873 483877
      480887 476897 477903 482903 486902 487896 490886 494878
      495871 496865 497858
 0.01 478689 478684 476681 472679 467682 463680 459677 456672
      450673 446676 440679 436682 431685 428690 416710 414714
      417719 421722 425727 421732 417736 416739 421740 424735
      428737 433741 435746 436751 438752 440750 444738 448734
      453735 455731 455727 453725 456720 459716 466707 478689
 0.01 469861 466847 463841 459837 456833 453827 450822 446821
      440822 436825 428833 424836 422842 419847 417853 415858
      414865 414882 414899 417914 420927 423931 428933 438933
      441934 444930 447925 450920 455910 461900 467890 468884
      468874 468864 469861
 0.01 435169 434166 431164 430163 428164 425165 422166 420167
      418168 416170 414172 416173 419174 423174 425173 427171
      430171 432170 435169
 0.01 441043 441041 441038 440036 439038 439040 439043 441043
      441043
 0.01 402741 402734 399732 395731 392732 389736 385740 384743
      382747 383754 386757 391755 394752 395748 399745 402742
      402741
 0.01 406044 405036 405029 404022 401012 398004 393996 389990
      384983 378977 371971 370959 369953 366949 361942 360938
      363936 368931 372927 372921 373916 373909 373896 376886
      376873 374863 373857 373850 375839 378819 382811 387806
      390804 390801 387799 385802 377807 374803 373798 376771
      376767 376761 374747 370739 368736 369731 371722 371717
      368713 364712 361714 357716 354720 351727 347737 342737
      343742 341746 338753 334763 328781 325790 325795 322800
      318806 311811 296818 288817 282817 278815 274814 271811
      270809 271807 274808 278809 282808 281804 277802 272797
      267788 261784 258785 256787 255789 252797 249799 246794
      243792 239793 240804 241815 242820 242826 247831 248826
      247819 248817 251816 255820 255823 253828 254834 257838
      262844 269846 276848 279852 281856 283867 280874 280881
      283886 284890 285895 285907 285912 283916 281925 278934
      275943 273947 273953 272956 271962 270972 270976 271979
      274982 276986 279991 282993 298002 307006 309007 313004
      312995 313990 318989 326987 336987 340989 345990 348992
      352995 361013 363017 364023 364030 362035 356042 354051
      352055 349056 344055 340052 334047 331044 326042 319038
      316037 313034 312028 310024 307023 304024 301027 297028
      294027 289028 286030 282031 277032 274034 269039 267041
      263042 258044 255047 252053 251061 254065 257075 267089
      272096 275102 280108 288111 293112 295116 297120 300124
      307130 316132 320135 322139 324149 326152 330153 332151
      336152 338151 340147 341141 340135 337132 335128 337126
      339128 343132 349137 352137 353132 355120 354110 356106
      361105 366097 368093 371092 374096 374098 377099 387089
      386085 387081 390080 391082 393086 396085 397084 399078
      401065 404053 406044
 0.01 343171 344169 343167 342166 341165 340164 338164 336164
      334163 333162 331162 329161 328163 329164 330165 332166
      332167 334168 335168 337169 339169 340170 341170 342172
      343171
 0.01 322162 323159 321157 318153 313146 309141 307136 302128
      295121 291119 286119 284120 283123 282130 283136 286140
      294145 303152 305156 309159 315160 320163 322162
 0.25 506101 506095 504092 500091 496092 491096 489093 491090
      492086 490083 488084 482087 478094 479099 482101 487101
      492107 495109 500109 504104 506101
 0.25 476139 477137 477134 476132 474132 472132 471132 470133
      469133 467135 467136 467137 467138 467140 468142 470143
      471143 472143 473143 475141 475140 476139
 0.25 461876 461871 457869 452867 447869 442875 441882 439885
      432890 427898 427904 431906 439903 444895 446891 449889
      454888 458884 461876
 0.25 400037 401030 400024 399018 397014 393007 388999 375988
      371986 368987 367994 367000 368012 370021 371034 370041
      367045 361049 358054 359059 371071 374070 376068 376064
      371057 375057 380058 389059 393058 396055 397050 398044
      400037
 0.25 369764 369758 367752 366744 365739 363737 360726 357728
      355730 350738 348744 346752 334780 332786 330797 325810
      327819 327827 325830 322830 320825 317824 314822 311820
      304826 291827 277832 274839 277842 280843 285843 287845
      288855 290858 293861 299864 302866 304870 304875 302876
      296876 292877 289879 289882 291884 294893 291900 289908
      290916 288924 285939 281958 281968 283972 286973 294972
      298971 301969 304964 308964 311966 317966 324962 330959
      331955 329952 328944 330939 332937 338936 341932 342928
      344921 346911 351897 353894 355897 358892 360885 359880
      360877 363881 364878 367870 367865 367859 366849 367840
      367829 365821 361812 364795 366788 365779 369764
 0.25 362967 361964 359962 357960 354959 352958 348958 345958
      343959 340960 341965 343965 346966 350966 354966 357967
      359968 362967
 0.25 346112 342092 341087 338081 334078 331079 329075 329070
      333069 336065 337061 335057 329051 319047 311043 306041
      300043 298044 295041 291038 285038 277042 269047 266050
      263054 259062 259068 261072 269079 274085 284100 290100
      295103 300110 306117 309120 314120 317116 319110 319106
      318101 318092 318086 316081 312078 307077 304074 301069
      300064 300058 299053 300051 301053 311070 314073 319075
      324076 327079 332086 334091 335097 339109 343113 346112
 0.25 326868 326862 325859 322857 320853 320847 319842 317843
      317853 315856 311858 310867 308873 308878 312878 319876
      325872 326868
 0.25 291822 290822 289822 287822 285823 287823 289824 291824
      291822
 0.25 283825 285823 283823 281823 280823 280825 282826 283825
      283825
 0.25 270835 269833 267831 265830 264829 263829 262828 260829
      260831 260832 261833 262835 264835 266836 268836 269835
      270835
 0.25 266817 265815 264813 262811 260809 258807 256807 255808
      255810 256812 257813 259815 261816 261817 263818 264818
      266817
 0.50 398032 397021 392010 385002 376997 374998 372003 372011
      372017 373024 374030 375036 377038 380038 385048 388052
      390053 393052 394047 395039 398032
 0.50 375051 375048 374048 372048 372049 373050 374052 375051
 0.50 365764 366758 364752 362742 359739 355741 352744 351749
      345763 338780 335787 335791 336795 337801 335805 331811
      330815 330817 333816 339812 347812 352811 354808 357800
      361794 363790 363784 361780 360774 365764
 0.50 361863 359843 354845 347849 344852 342856 338858 333858
      331861 331866 330872 328876 324881 319887 313892 311895
      309901 310908 313911 317911 323908 329902 344896 347888
      352882 354879 355874 356863 361863
 0.50 329928 328924 325923 317925 312929 307929 305928 299924
      296922 294922 291931 289939 288947 287956 285966 289967
      292965 296959 300954 305949 308950 310952 316957 323959
      326957 327954 325950 323948 321945 321941 325936 329928
 0.50 326842 325841 324842 325843 326842
 0.50 321065 321061 321059 319056 318053 315052 312051 309051
      310055 311058 312060 312064 313067 315070 318069 320067
      321065
 0.50 310111 310103 309097 310092 307085 303080 298074 296067
      296057 293050 288045 282045 275048 270052 266058 264068
      268074 274079 277084 282089 289092 296096 300101 304108
      306111 310111
 0.50 309854 309849 305846 301846 299842 295839 294834 291831
      286833 277836 280840 284840 288841 291845 290849 291853
      295853 300851 302850 303857 306859 308856 309854
 1.00 390025 390020 389018 386015 385013 383012 381013 380017
      380022 381026 382026 384029 386028 388027 390025
 1.00 362760 362754 360749 356748 353751 350759 347769 344776
      341786 340790 342794 346794 348790 351782 352776 354773
      358765 362760
 1.00 337891 336889 334887 331885 329884 327885 325887 324890
      323894 323898 326898 327897 329895 333894 336893 337891
 1.00 299937 298935 297933 296935 297937 298937 299937 299937
 1.00 289081 287077 284074 286070 288064 284061 281062 278065
      273067 273070 276072 281074 283076 286081 289081
 1.00 291058 291056 290054 289053 287051 285052 283053 281053
      279053 277055 279056 281056 283057 284057 285058 286058
      288059 290059 291058

24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 520942 520920 517913 513910 508913 504918 496926 488935
      481946 473957 470962 468969 468989 465998 463004 460010
      458020 456027 453032 449037 445041 437051 430061 428063
      427068 429073 432075 433079 430083 426089 424091 424095
      425099 424104 421109 420118 424119 430116 435114 443126
      448130 454133 456132 457128 460123 466112 473097 475090
      477081 480075 481069 476063 476058 478054 481048 486043
      489050 491058 494062 500062 505058 508053 511046 509037
      502025 497022 497018 498016 502008 505004 509000 513994
      518980 517975 515973 515968 520942
 0.01 498232 500222 501217 499214 494211 488210 484208 481208
      477210 477215 478218 480224 484225 490227 493231 497234
      498232
 0.01 500752 497728 496721 494717 493704 492691 490678 488667
      485658 481652 479650 476650 467654 462659 455664 451670
      449677 446685 440698 436707 435716 439732 436740 432745
      425750 420754 406761 403768 403772 406775 407780 406785
      405794 408801 409804 408807 404815 402818 398821 394826
      392832 387849 382863 379873 379877 377881 378902 381910
      385915 389920 395923 400929 404937 405940 408943 411942
      412938 412933 413931 415928 423928 417915 416911 415905
      415892 418872 420864 424860 429853 433848 436845 440844
      450844 454843 456840 459834 462825 463817 467800 469789
      468778 470773 474770 482769 489767 494763 499758 500752
 0.01 418013 414007 417999 418989 417984 415984 405983 396985
      388987 384986 382983 373976 368972 362968 356965 352965
      349967 345969 343967 338965 338958 340954 340949 343942
      345939 345934 345924 345912 348903 351885 353878 354869
      355863 355858 354847 353840 356833 358826 360822 360816
      361812 360807 362797 362789 365782 369775 375769 380753
      387741 390734 388724 387720 385716 383708 379702 375701
      373697 364684 360686 356691 336715 334719 333723 331730
      325745 322751 320758 317763 315772 311788 309795 305799
      301802 295802 288801 282802 280801 280798 279787 278783
      276781 268783 259785 253787 249792 244796 240798 239803
      238807 238812 238816 240819 245825 249831 253834 259838
      265843 271848 273850 274856 279869 280877 277882 273889
      271895 269904 266913 263930 262940 261947 259966 265970
      262977 256991 255996 256004 259021 261025 261029 262033
      262039 261045 260048 259058 258068 259074 259080 261083
      265091 272102 281112 286118 291123 317137 320139 325139
      326135 330134 338136 341135 343133 346134 350137 353139
      355139 362135 364132 365127 366119 368110 369099 366092
      366090 368089 372090 378095 381097 385097 392094 398090
      399079 403074 408070 411067 412064 408058 405056 400055
      394050 387048 384047 382044 381041 384039 391039 397034
      403036 407036 411035 415026 418013
 0.01 412106 412101 412096 410095 408093 406094 404095 403100
      403104 403108 405112 409111 410108 412106
 0.01 389872 389867 387863 386868 384870 384872 382877 381879
      381884 383888 384884 386881 386879 388874 389872
 0.01 358038 358032 357027 352020 350018 346015 338017 331021
      323023 318024 316026 314031 313037 313049 311053 309054
      306057 304061 306069 309076 314082 317085 322085 326079
      331072 337067 339065 341061 343057 346055 352050 356042
      358038
 0.01 339168 339165 337163 332160 326157 321154 316152 312156
      314162 317166 323166 329165 334168 337169 339168
 0.25 488962 488959 486958 482961 480964 477969 475972 474976
      475982 476984 479983 482979 484975 486969 487964 488962
 0.25 463077 463075 462072 460072 458073 457073 456074 455076
      454078 455079 456080 458081 460081 461081 463079 463078
      463077
 0.25 463050 464048 463046 462046 460046 459047 458047 456049
      455052 455054 455056 455059 456060 457061 459059 460057
      461056 462055 462052 463050 463050
 0.25 457769 456758 452755 448754 444754 440755 437757 429768
      425774 423780 421788 419795 414809 405834 403839 401848
      400857 398862 396870 394879 394884 395889 399887 400885
      407854 409848 413842 421831 425827 431823 437819 440814
      454789 456778 457769
 0.25 404016 404009 403006 401002 397000 392999 389000 385004
      381005 373003 372006 375010 376015 374019 372024 376026
      384030 389030 393027 398022 402021 404016
 0.25 366737 366731 364726 362722 359722 356724 353728 349736
      344741 340747 338755 335763 321792 313807 309813 305817
      299817 295819 294822 294825 295831 294835 292845 292854
      293863 294867 294873 291881 284893 283898 284902 291908
      288916 288927 288934 285939 278944 274949 270956 269962
      270966 276972 281977 283983 278984 276987 276992 278996
      281002 283006 286008 293009 298014 301015 303013 300004
      299994 300982 303975 305972 306969 305967 298962 293963
      291962 292960 295954 299949 306947 312942 313934 312928
      314923 318915 323909 326903 329896 332887 334879 334873
      339854 339842 340832 345817 348809 349801 352793 356786
      364771 366767 366762 363753 363748 364743 366737
 0.25 363067 364063 361060 361058 362056 362052 360051 358052
      356054 354056 354060 357060 361060 357062 356064 356069
      358071 361069 363067
 0.25 350117 345104 343089 342086 340088 334086 332088 331092
      333099 332103 330104 326099 315093 311089 308083 303072
      300067 295063 288060 282062 277065 273069 271072 271077
      273083 276088 281092 287102 290106 295111 303119 308122
      312124 317123 321123 324126 328125 332127 336121 340112
      345116 350117
 0.25 266808 265806 261805 257803 258801 257798 251797 246800
      244805 247809 251810 252812 257815 261818 266819 265810
      266808
 0.50 452775 451767 449763 446760 443764 440766 437770 436775
      439779 440784 438788 434797 433802 432807 434809 437806
      443800 447791 450782 452775
 0.50 399009 397006 394003 390005 387009 385012 383016 383020
      386024 389025 391021 395018 397016 399011 399009
 0.50 361769 360761 358754 353742 349745 347751 346758 344763
      338774 331783 318802 314813 305821 303821 302825 307829
      311841 314846 320848 326850 329850 332844 333837 334830
      335824 339811 343800 349789 356779 361769
 0.50 361067 361065 360064 359064 358065 359066 359067 360068
      361067
 0.50 342096 342095 341093 340093 338093 336095 337097 338098
      340099 340098 342096 342096
 0.50 326883 323874 320868 318866 317869 316874 317879 318887
      316890 313892 309897 308902 308907 310911 313911 317906
      320899 323892 325885 326883
 0.50 316110 314104 311100 307091 305086 303081 300077 296074
      290073 283074 281077 283080 287084 289089 291100 297109
      303114 306116 310116 313111 316110
 0.50 294939 294937 294935 293937 293939 294941 294939
 0.50 289949 288949 287948 285949 284949 283950 282952 281952
      280954 279955 279956 278958 277959 277960 277961 279960
      280960 281958 282958 283956 284956 285955 286954 287952
      288950 289949
 0.50 262813 262811 262810 261809 260808 258808 256808 254810
      255812 257813 258813 259813 260814 262813 262813
 1.00 355770 352771 348775 339780 333789 331793 328797 321804
      318808 319815 324815 326812 329807 334804 336801 335795
      337790 340787 349781 352778 355773 355770
 1.00 321827 320825 320824 319823 318822 317821 316821 314821
      312821 311822 311823 310824 310826 311827 313828 315829
      317830 318829 320828 321827
 1.50 330803 330800 329799 327800 326801 325802 324803 323804
      322805 321806 320808 320810 321811 322812 324810 325810
      326808 327807 327806 328805 329804 330803
 2.00 326805 327803 325803 324805 323806 322808 322810 324808
      325808 326806 326805

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 526894 524882 521871 519865 517866 514866 512868 509864
      508857 505852 501842 498837 496835 493835 488833 484834
      476852 471857 468859 464860 457864 455867 453872 451884
      449896 446905 442915 437926 431934 411944 407947 404951
      400959 398963 394967 387972 386974 388978 392981 394985
      394988 392991 389992 386994 385996 386000 389002 397005
      406003 416004 422005 427007 427013 423015 418017 414021
      408028 406034 407040 403043 396043 386043 376043 367044
      359046 350048 342047 331046 326045 320044 317041 315038
      311030 309025 311020 315009 321984 321978 323973 326958
      329946 330941 331935 334926 336917 340900 344882 346873
      348862 355853 363848 374842 377844 376848 374853 371864
      370869 370876 370888 372893 374896 381903 383906 385904
      387899 385897 382891 377883 379879 379873 379866 380862
      385854 396837 400831 404827 408824 412819 426806 431801
      437797 441796 445793 452787 456786 460781 465774 475761
      485746 491735 491729 490723 487714 485711 486707 485699
      483696 479691 479684 481678 480670 477658 472652 468651
      465654 460661 443690 437697 431703 417718 412717 409713
      407707 403703 398694 395689 391685 386683 380683 376685
      371687 363692 358698 352703 348710 345717 342724 335740
      329750 322755 318758 317762 314768 311771 308775 304778
      300783 296784 294785 285787 280788 262786 258788 253789
      250791 247794 241811 242816 244819 246823 250826 259830
      263832 267835 281845 285848 287857 286864 284869 282910
      282917 283921 282931 282937 280942 275947 266962
 0.01 266962 258975 253980 250983 249988 249997 250003 250013
      251017 254019 259024 264029 267038 267044 268048 270065
      272081 273089 275097 286109 291113 295119 302129 316137
      323142 327144 331147 336145 343148 361150 369151 374150
      378151 385147 388137 395123 397120 400118 403117 406117
      413116 417116 420113 426108 429105 431106 431109 453103
      455106 456110 460119 463127 466130 470128 473123 474115
      472104 471101 472098 476091 480082 486060 485059 482055
      482052 478034 475027 473024 471020 472018 478010 481001
      488989 492983 497978 502973 505972 508969 511959 514947
      516925 516920 519918 522913 524901 526894
 0.01 460006 456005 453008 450010 446012 444015 440019 437021
      442023 446021 448021 451020 454020 457020 459018 459010
      460006
 0.01 447082 447080 444077 438072 432073 426072 429070 431070
      432068 431064 431059 429058 425060 421060 418062 415071
      410074 405077 401083 400086 397087 391086 388091 384096
      381097 378095 375090 369093 369103 368109 366112 367116
      369117 372119 374118 380114 387113 394112 396110 396106
      394097 397098 401099 404097 406091 409091 413098 415104
      418106 420104 422102 423096 424091 426087 431086 433084
      437084 444083 447082
 0.25 494911 492896 491892 487891 484890 481890 478892 472895
      467898 463902 459910 454920 450930 447940 443950 440963
      438973 440977 445975 450968 454964 460966 464967 467966
      476961 484959 488956 491950 493939 492924 494913 494911
 0.25 479867 477866 476867 474867 473868 472868 471868 469869
      467870 467871 467873 467874 469875 471875 473875 474873
      475872 476872 477870 477869 479867 479867
 0.25 466717 463712 459709 454707 450706 440709 433715 424723
      416730 406736 400744 393755 391759 391766 390773 390781
      397786 403786 408784 416778 436767 443766 448763 454752
      460743 461737 459732 459728 463724 466717
 0.25 441038 440036 438035 436035 436038 438039 440040 441039
      441038
 0.25 419985 420978 417975 412973 415968 412968 410968 408973
      405977 404982 407985 410988 415987 419985 419985
 0.25 368739 368734 366730 363728 359729 352735 347740 338749
      329759 323774 320782 318791 316798 312804 307808 304814
      304822 299828 303850 308863 304863 301869 300877 301889
      301895 299899 297902 296907 289937 286954 286975 285984
      282991 273997 269003 270011 272015 275017 279018 283017
      287014 291007 293005 298005 301004 302002 306963 309958
      311951 311941 311930 312911 313899 314888 314881 315870
      317856 318848 322840 332827 337823 341817 343814 341812
      339809 341802 344794 348787 350783 351778 352768 356763
      364755 367751 367746 368739
 0.25 362067 363065 362063 361062 360063 359063 357064 357067
      358069 359069 360069 362068 362067
 0.25 359810 358808 357809 356810 355811 354813 354815 355815
      356815 357813 358812 359811 359810
 0.25 355122 355118 353115 349112 346108 345103 345097 347091
      348087 345084 339084 335090 334096 332099 327101 320100
      316098 313094 307086 301080 298078 295077 288079 284080
      283083 284086 287097 292106 306119 315125 320127 326128
      332129 337132 343131 346129 351125 355122
 0.25 335811 333810 331810 329809 328809 326809 324809 322809
      320810 320812 320815 320817 321818 323817 325817 326817
      328816 330816 332815 333813 335811
 0.25 298823 298821 298819 298817 297815 295814 293814 292814
      290814 289814 288814 286815 285816 285819 286821 287821
      288822 289823 290823 292824 294824 295824 296824 298824
      298823
 0.25 279811 278806 274804 270803 265802 261802 258804 256807
      258811 260815 264816 266819 270822 275820 277816 279812
      279811
 0.50 486932 485922 483917 480915 476915 472917 468922 463927
      460935 460941 462944 464953 469954 476952 480950 484950
      484944 486934 486932
 0.50 443747 440740 439733 437730 435729 431728 429730 423742
      419746 415748 409749 405751 399755 399763 397769 397772
      398776 404777 409775 414769 421769 426765 427763 431763
      436759 439755 443747
 0.50 360743 360739 358738 355739 351742 348746 345749 342753
      340755 340758 342758 348756 351754 354751 357748 359745
      360743
 0.50 342098 342096 342095 340094 338095 339098 340099 341100
      342098
 0.50 332118 328115 327111 325109 322110 319112 316111 315107
      308101 302095 299092 296092 294097 294100 296105 299108
      306112 310115 314117 322119 332118
 1.00 474939 474937 472938 472939 472940 474940 474939

$$





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