Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 032237
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
536 PM EST TUE MAR 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 04/0000 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UPDATE...
WPC MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO THE
PRELIM QPF FCST FOR THE HIGH-END QPF/WINTER STORM STRETCHING FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND DEPARTING
SYSTEM IN THE MID-ATL/NORTHEAST.   MUSHER

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...

THIS WILL BE A WET PERIOD..BOTH IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THEN ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP THRU
THE OH VALLEY..WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST SNOWS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  A LEAD H5 S/WV NOW ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST IS PRECEDED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN..WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS THRU MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE TUESDAY EVENING
HOURS..AND WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST SNOWS UP
THRU THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.  THE
UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF NOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE EVENTUAL PHASING OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM H5 SYSTEM WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THRU WEDNESDAY..WITH ONLY SLOWLY
FALLING HEIGHTS AND A SLOW SOUTH AND EAST PUSH TO THE STRONGER AND
MORE MOIST SOUTWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.  THE LONG DURATION OF THE
DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT FROM MAINLY THRU THE OH VALLEY..ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME LOWER
FF GUIDANCE VALUES IN PLACE.  ON WEDNESDAY..THIS CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN A
SLOWLY HEIGHT FALLING REGIME SHOULD THEN ALLOW THE TRANSITION FROM
A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT..AGAIN PRETTY
MUCH NEAR THE LENGTH OF THE OH RIVER.  WPC CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE
IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED QPF TO ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE
NORTH-SOUTH QPF DIFFERENCES THE MODELS ARE SHOWING..WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR SOME 2-3 INCH WATER EQUIVALENTS THIS PERIOD ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS
ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.



...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS REGION IN RESPONSE TO H5 S/WV ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN..SOUTHERN STREAM H5 ENERGY LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES..AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MODEL
QPFS GENERALLY SUPPORT SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CO AND NORTHERN NM..WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THRUOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  AGAIN..PLEASE SEE THE
QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.


DAYS 2/3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

AMPLIFIED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO CHANNEL AMPLE MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO FALL ALONG A SLOW MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY
2.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE REMNANT ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN CA THROUGH
NORTHERN MEX/THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....SPURRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED EVENING...REACHING SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY EARLY THU.   MOISTURE THROWN BACK INTO DEEPENING COLD
AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LATE SEASON
WINTER STORM FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC.  REFER TO THE WPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS
CONCERNING EXPECTED SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS.  THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC ON
THU...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS MOST AREAS BY THU EVENING.
AS NOTED IN THE PMDHMD...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT THE AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT.  WPC AMOUNTS GAVE SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT TO THE GFS
AND ECMWF...WITH SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE LOCAL PSEUDO BIAS
CORRECTED ENSEMBLE QPF GUIDANCE AS WELL.  HOWEVER...GENERALLY
DISCOUNTED THE NAM WHICH IS A SLOWER OUTLIER IN COMPARISON TO THE
REMAINING 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

PEREIRA/KREKELER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 479617 483620 488623 491628 494635 496644 499648 503652
      507658 511662 515666 519671 522675 535716 538748
      539756 538761 538767 537774 538778 536781 536784 534785
      528791 521797 517801 515801 514805 514815 510825 508830
      506836 501844 500850 497853 490854 488856 484858 484866
      483869 478878 477883 476890 472897 470900 467900 465895
      465889 466880 466874 462863 461859 459857 456855 453855
      450852 449847 451844 455842 458838 453828 449821 444817
      440815 436816 427818 419823 413829 410838 407847 396890
      390910 385931 381951 380962 381972 381979 382986 382997
      382004 383008 385015 389015 393004 394997 396993 396984
      398979 402971 407961 409956 409959 412963 413967 414977
      420013 423024 423030 424034 424048 423061 419071 413078
      410080 405080 400081 397085 390092 383095 379099 376098
      376089 372082 369075 365068 361070 360073 360076 361081
      359085 354080 351079 348082 345085 344091 343098 345103
      348107 349112 353115 354118 351118 347116 344114 339114
      336112 335109 333108 330110 326109 323112 322117 323121
      322128 319130 314131 310132 310137 311141 313145 322160
      318164 314166 309165 270155 268151 268147 273139 281136
      285133 281130 278125 277122 276115 273107 270103 264102
      260103 251105 244107 240100 244070 245065 247060 250058
      255057 261058 265060 272063 282065 285067 289066 291064
      293061 295058 295052 295046 293042 291038 291033 288022
      288018 290015 292010 292007 291004 289001 289995 288988
      286985 284981 286976 288968 293961 296955 299946 302927
      299918 295910 297905 297899 302893 305884 305873 308869
      312868 314872 316875 317873 321870 324866 324862 322859
      322854 322851 324848 329848 333845 333835 335828 337817
      340809 338806 335808 333811 328816 327806 329800
 0.01 329800 337788 342782 346776 348773 347769 344768 343766
      343761 345758 349754 354748 358741 359737 359731 357721
      360713 363708 366700 369693 372686 375680 382666 385659
      390653 398644
 0.01 409110 410103 408098 404102 401107 398110 391113 383117
      377121 375127 374132 377132 380129 386123 392117 401116
      407112 409110
 0.01 366124 366122 366121 365121 363121 364123 364124 366124
      366124
 0.01 326076 324070 322065 319061 316055 312060 310064 307070
      306074 307078 312075 315071 317069 320069 320076 321080
      325078 326076
 0.25 477663 477658 475655 471653 460649 454648 446649 439651
      433652 420653 414656 409659 403662 399666 392674 383699
      381707 380716 378730 376746 376753 377761 379778 379784
      376787 372800 369807 366813 360826 353835 344863 336884
      333898 331904 329910 326917 323925 319937 314950 308961
      305974 304980 306985 310997 313003 315005 315009 314012
      311015 306019 304030 302040 304044 310043 314040 324035
      328031 330027 334021 338017 347009 352005 355998 357992
      359983 377936 384907 388890 393876 406824 411811 416798
      418791 418782 418771 416762 415753 418748 422743 425743
      427746 429748 429750 430755 433761 435762 437762 441755
      444751 448745 450750 453753 456751 460750 463744 463735
      459730 455731 454733 451740 449743 448743 446737 442735
      436735 434734 432731 432728 433725 439722 450726 452729
      455726 459721 463717 469714 472707 472698 473695 472692
      468692 465690 462682 462678 463677 467674 474668 477663
 0.25 399051 398048 397047 396046 394045 393045 392046 391048
      390049 388050 390052 392051 393051 395051 397052 399051
 0.25 385052 383048 378047 374046 371047 367048 361049 360054
      365056 370055 374054 377051 383053 385052
 0.25 314107 314105 313105 313103 312101 311100 310100 309100
      308101 307101 305102 304104 304106 304107 305108 306109
      308110 309110 311110 312109 313108 314107
 0.25 305093 299083 294080 291076 285073 280071 274069 267067
      255063 252065 250067 251073 254078 259082 265090 271093
      278093 291093 303095 305093
 0.50 424679 418673 415670 411669 406672 403675 399683 395691
      392699 389709 388719 388726 388733 391746 394757 398765
      401765 403759 405750 406745 409740 413732 416723 417712
      422692 424685 424679
 0.50 414790 414781 412774 408769 402769 397771 393775 390785
      387790 383794 374803 370813 366825 362836 356848 352859
      348869 332917 328928 322939 317949 313960 312968 314975
      316977 316982 316986 317990 323991 328990 331994 335996
      339991 341986 343979 346973 357955 364947 369942 371936
      373929 373923 376910 386885 390874 393863 400835 403823
      407811 411798 414790
 0.50 323027 324022 321022 319023 316024 314025 312026 310028
      309032 308034 310035 312032 314032 317032 320031 322029
      323027
 0.50 290085 288081 284076 278074 273071 267070 262070 258071
      257073 261078 265080 269085 275087 282087 288086 290085
 1.00 409789 408784 404781 399784 396786 386801 382807 375814
      370822 367831 366840 362850 358858 356868 356881 353891
      350899 344906 336922 329939 326947 326951 328953 331955
      339951 345947 350945 352943 358935 362927 366919 369911
      374901 381885 388866 393847 399826 401817 402806 403801
      405795 409789
 1.50 402790 399790 396792 393801 388816 385825 383829 380832
      376833 373839 370847 367856 363874 359892 353907 351915
      349919 346922 342928 338934 335942 336946 339943 343939
      351936 356931 360923 363916 367909 374894 380879 385863
      390847 395828 397821 398811 399797 402790
 2.00 394819 393814 391817 388826 385834 381841 374855 370864
      368873 364892 362901 362905 365905 369897 372891 379875
      382866 385856 388838 393821 394819

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 510298 507305 503311 501308 500304 499296 497287 494281
      491274 489268 489257 487250 486246 487244 492243 494240
      494236 492230 490226 491220 493219 496221 504231 512242
      519247 524251 526255
 0.01 443630 444640 445647 443664 441679 437696 436703 438715
      440732 440752 437761 402857 392883 381910 373940 370950
      363958 360964 357968 349978 341987 338989 336991 332998
      320016 319025 320033 323039 327043 333046 334052 335056
      333059 331060 327059 323055 316052 303047 292042 288038
      281035 278033 273031 268029 265023 261019 256016 243012
      241007 241999 239990 240985 234976 231971 231965 231957
      233950 234943 238940 244929 245927 244922 242917 238912
      237910 238908 242894 247883 250879 252875 255868 259865
      265857 269853 274849 283841 288837 291833 296828 300822
      312805 316793 317790 318787 316785 311788 300794 296795
      293797 287798 288793 291788 296784 302779 306776 311773
      321768 325763 327757 331746 335734 338727 339720 341715
      344709 351697 363679 369668 377659 393645
 0.01 535223 537210 538197 537185 535182 532180 524178 519183
      517193 518204 520212 522221 525228 529230 532228 535223
 0.01 467699 465697 463698 455703 450706 447709 446715 446720
      443728 443732 445732 450728 455722 458716 463708 465705
      466702 467699
 0.01 477857 477845 475841 473838 471838 469841 467844 466841
      464839 464844 463850 461851 462856 463861 462865 462871
      466878 469878 473872 475868 475862 477857
 0.01 456845 456840 454840 451840 449843 447843 446846 444848
      442851 443856 443858 446858 448858 450855 451852 453850
      455847 456845
 0.01 450826 449819 445812 442808 438806 431807 429812 428815
      428819 432821 434819 437818 442822 446825 450826
 0.01 436864 435864 431862 429862 426860 424860 422862 421863
      421865 423867 424869 428869 431869 433869 436866 436864
 0.01 370055 371052 370052 368052 367051 365050 363049 362049
      361049 360051 359051 358053 357053 357056 357058 359058
      361057 362056 363055 365055 366055 368055 370055 370055
 0.01 322093 320092 319090 315089 313090 309091 307093 305094
      303095 302099 305101 308101 310100 313099 316097 318096
      321095 322093
 0.25 522267 519263 516260 511259 508261 505265 503268 501275
      503280 504284 507288 510286 512282 515277 517275 519275
 0.25 430670 429658 427651 425648 418644 414644 411645 399655
      394660 389667 373699 366712 359727 356735 354744 349763
      343777 335790 334795 335800 342805 343809 344816 346827
      346832 344836 341841 333854 325870 321879 318886 309898
      305904 301912 299920 299925 301929 310942 313950 317957
      322962 325963 330963 335958 341952 351938 359926 366912
      374895 381879 388862 394849 400832 403821 406812 409796
      413777 416757 418745 421735 423728 424718 425708 426698
      429683 430670
 0.50 424677 423665 422659 420655 417653 414652 408654 406657
      401662 398667 392681 385696 380712 375728 370741 364754
      356769 354776 351784 350792 350800 352815 359820 355828
      349840 347846 344855 340871 338882 337891 337900 335907
      331915 327917 323912 318913 316915 314919 314924 319932
      324936 330938 335941 341938 350926 359913 366899 371887
      384856 390843 395828 404793 410761 416724 422692 424677
 1.00 416677 416672 415667 414665 410666 406672 404677 400690
      397703 395711 392718 389730 388738 389748 387755 385761
      378772 375776 372783 372791 374799 382807 385806 387804
      390799 392792 393784 395777 397770 401758 403751 405743
      406729 411699 416677
 1.00 385825 385818 381817 374823 370825 368829 363836 360845
      361852 363855 365861 367862 369860 374853 377846 381836
      385827 385825


24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 417638 422640 425640 426644 428650 430659 431668 430673
      429688 425700 423705 419709 413718 408728 402738 398742
      395747 389755 381762 373770 364776 359779 352780 344786
      338796 335801 333807 330818 329823 328826 328831 328839
      327845 326852 324858 319866 313875 313883 311889 308902
      305912 301924 300930 300938 298952 294962 291966 286968
      275972 270974 266977 263981 262989 262996 262000 264003
      264018 263026 261032 260036 256040 251041 244041 238044
      232045 229043 227037 230015 234015 239013 243012 245008
      247004 244000 242996 238994 236991 235987 233983 233977
      232971 231967 227908 231900 234896 238894 246891 251889
      256889 266889 275886 283889 287887 293886 297878 299875
      297872 295872 295869 297859 300849 303840 305828 303823
      299821 290818 278820 268823 265823 264821 261817 260813
      257809 254806 251810 247813 244810 245805 247802 251798
      253794 256791 261790 265787 268783 273778 282773 290767
      293763 295758 300753 308747 316742 320739 324735 327726
      330717 338698 346682 354672 362664
 0.01 569966 567958 564951 561938 556924 550911 548906 544901
      538901 535904 527913 523917 520923 516926 513932 507942
      505950 506958 510970 517981 525989 534996 543000 548001
      550002 550007 549014 552026 555029 560035 563035 564032
      565027 567018 567008 568002
 0.01 541204 544189 546182 547173 550160 552152 553141 550125
      548112 540089 527068 522060 519055 516051 509042 505039
      502039 502041 500047 501053 501060 504067 511092 519114
      526142 527148 526157 523162 519166 516169 514170 513174
      512183 512191 514198 515204 514213 517217 520218 521221
      524227 528239 526244 521244 516240 513236 509232 503230
      499233 497237 500249 498252 496251 490252 499303 502307
      506302 510295 513288 525254 526252 526249 527247 528245
      529242 529240 530237 531235 532232 532230 533227 534227
      534228
 0.01 535714 529701 523693 518695 514699 511702 508708 493723
      480739 474750 471756 470761 467766 466772 463785 460798
      457810 455823 455831 455835 457837 464845 458854 456857
      457861 461862 466861 470863 476863 479866 479871 480877
      481887 484898 486905 488912 490917 494922 497927 500929
      505929 508925 510911 510902 509894 505880 503875 500871
      504863 513859 518856 524855 535854 540853 545850 553845
      557840 557834 556817 555810 554805 553799 552792 550785
      548767
 0.01 445807 443803 442798 441796 438801 436804 433807 430810
      428814 428819 434819 437818 441815 444812 445807
 0.01 436782 436775 435768 434761 433756 430754 426753 424756
      422761 422766 424770 426772 430776 432780 434785 436782
      436782
 0.25 535201 536199 535196 534195 533194 531193 529194 528196
      529199 529200 529202 530203 531204 533204 534203 535202
      535201
 0.25 520269 521264 521261 520256 517255 514254 511255 509256
      508261 508267 509270 509272 510276 513279 516278 517276
      519271 520269
 0.25 409657 408652 404649 399650 395652 390655 387658 382667
      378687 372706 366726 362737 363740 365742 368741 374733
      379725 388708 397691 406672 409664 409657
 0.25 353746 352742 349741 342744 332750 326758 319767 313777
      311784 311790 315793 322791 331783 337775 344766 349755
      353746
 0.25 287929 286925 283923 279924 277925 265931 252934 247938
      246945 245950 243952 240958 238965 241972 245974 249974
      252972 259963 264958 268958 272960 276958 279954 283947
      285941 287929
 0.50 518273 518271 519268 519266 519264 517263 516263 514263
      514264 513266 512268 513270 513271 514273 516274 517274
      518273

$$





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