Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 240615
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 24/1200 UTC THRU AUG 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...GT LAKES/EAST COAST...

DEEP UPR LOW OVER THE SCNTL CANADA IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACRS
THE NRN GT LAKES THIS PD INTO SRN ONTARIO PROV.  THE UPR LOW WILL
HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT...ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD REGION ON MON.  SUFFICIENT AFTN
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT..ALONG WITH RIBBON OF INCREASING MSTR
WILL SUPPORT SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTN AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PD.  GIVEN FAIRLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
LARGE SCALE DETAILS...HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY
THOUGH DID INCREASE AMOUNTS A TAD THRU PARTS OF THE MID ATLC
REGION NWD INTO UPSTATE NY WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE.   FARTHER WEST...BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH EMBDD VORT LOBES WILL SUPPORT GENL SHWR THREAT ACRS MUCH
OF THE NRN GT LAKES REGION WITH .25"+ AREA AVG AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER
MUCH OF NRN MI AND PARTS OF NRN LOWER MI..SIMILAR TO 12Z EC AND
00Z NAM/UKMET BLENDS.


...SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

MAINTAINED SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FROM OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH MOIST UNSTABLE MONSOON FLOW AROUND 4 CORNERS UPR
RIDGE...WHILE POOLING OF HIER MSTR HELPS FOCUS CNVTN ALONG COLD
FRONT SETTLING SLOWLY SWD THRU THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY.
LOTS OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH SMALLER SCALE VORTS EMBDD IN CIRC
AROUND UPR HI WHICH ARE LIKELY NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF PLACEMENT.  FOR THIS REASON..DID
NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM CONTINUITY KEEPING SOME ORGANIZED MODEST
AMOUNTS IN THE ERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF ERN NM..AS WELL AS FOCUSING
SOME ORGANIZED .25 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS ACRS PARTS OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM AREA OF AZ AND MTNS OF SE AZ.  OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER
MS VALLEY...FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF LATEST HI RES RUNS ON DEPICTING
AT LEAST .25 TO .50"+ AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR TX
COAST INTO SRN LA GIVEN EXPECTED 2 INCH PWS FOCUSING ALONG COLD
FRONT AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.


ELSEWHERE...
SCTD AFTN/EVEN SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED OVER FL..ESPECIALLY THE SRN
INTERIOR WITH CONVERGENCE OF SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY TAPPING AXIS OF 2
INCH OR GREATER PWS OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE STATE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 555900 554884 552878 548876 546874 546870 547865 550852
      550843 550838 551835 550824 548817 546800 544794 543786
      542780 540773 537763 533752 531746 528742 520728 511713
      505706 499697 494689 490679 479658 468661 465665 461665
      458664 455667 449673 444681 440689 440694 438699 433706
      418715 411721 401727 395732 388737 384742 378745 370750
      351762 338771 335774 332778 325783 319789 316790 313789
      295788 277797 280803 272802 267801 263798 261784 257783
      254784 249787 245790 243794 238801 234809 233819 234829
      233838 233842 236845 239848 242847 248845 256841 267842
      276843 277848 277855 274877 276884 276892 274898 271902
      267912 266916 266922 268929 273936 284949 290954 292957
      292962 297968 299974 299982 299992 300005 301010 303014
      308023 309025 309029 304032 295037 292040 288042 284045
      283048 281051 280054 277055 271057 254057 246053 239049
      230052 231063 235069 242075 250082 256090 259094 265095
      269097 271099 271103 275110 281117 288121 293120 298122
      305126 314128 324139 321150 320153 318155 311153 308154
      311157 314159 319161 323163 326165 329164 332160 336157
      337154 330152 328154 327151 331147 335145 339141 341138
      345137 350136 353130 355120 348106 347100 348098 351097
      353101 356102 359102 358097 362092 366090 361085 358081
      357077 359071 362070 365070 367070 369072 371077 374088
      376094 376096 379098 387088 387079 387076 390077 392080
      399076 400064 397057 393059 388058 384055 379055 379051
      375047 372044 370039 370033 369033 359037 355040 353041
      350040 353025 353011 350008 347006 345008 345014 346019
      346024 343034 337039 332039 330036 325028 326021 327016
      327004 327992
 0.01 327992 330980 333970 334965 336963 338962 341968 341976
      344980 345975 345969 346964 347950 348947 349941 349933
      348927 346922 343919 339913 335910 326906 324903 324899
      326893 326886 325882 321872 317864 317862 314862 307862
      304863 301868 299873 297870 297866 297857 298850 297836
      306832 320821 322818 329816 337813 339812 341814 341819
      338832 339839 342838 345840 349849 351851 353847 357841
      364832 366828 370825 378817 382814 386809 392803 397798
      404791 414786 417783 424782 423787 421791 415802 412815
      413817 415817 419814 422808 427797 429786 428782 425783
      424782 426780 436777 442777 446781 449788 448795 442801
      438805 437809 432816 430819 435819 439823 441828 445831
      446837 444844 440848 436853 432856 422857 422862 426864
      443868 449870 453872 455877 457882 458893 459899 463903
      466908 471916 475925 487937 496942 501944 505945 509947
      515947 517945 520945 527944 540935 543932 546928 549917
      555900
 0.01 462188 462186 460187 458189 456191 455194 453196 451198
      450202 450206 452205 454202 456199 457197 459193 460190
      462188
 0.01 450078 450075 448073 448072 446072 445070 443072 444075
      446077 446078 448078 449078 450078
 0.01 445099 443095 441093 438093 434094 431091 428091 426089
      426091 427096 430099 432102 437103 441101 444099 445099
 0.01 411108 412101 410096 408093 406095 404101 400103 398108
      391112 386115 381115 378116 377121 377128 379126 380121
      383118 387116 392117 399114 405115 408113 411108
 0.01 356071 355069 354066 353066 351065 350064 348064 346064
      345065 344066 343067 344068 346070 347071 349071 351071
      353071 353070 353071 355071 356071
 0.01 335943 334936 333932 333926 331921 328918 324915 325919
      325926 327930 328936 330940 332943 335943
 0.01 276976 268974 259974 248975 237974 234978 233981 232988
      235991 242995 248995 253996 258000 264001 266999 266992
      268987 272980 276976
 0.25 536893 534883 534869 532848 529839 525831 521826 515826
      509830 506838 504847 500851 494854 486852 484851 481847
      479842 475835 468833 461832 459832 457834 449848 448851
      449857 453861 459864 463872 464875 465880 465889 466897
      467901 469902 472901 477897 483896 490898 496903 507907
      519913 522915 526914 531910 534902 536893
 0.25 512760 511750 508742 503736 499732 490726 479721 474718
      469716 463720 461723 463727 468730 474732 479734 484738
      489743 492748 496755 501755 505756 507758 512762 512760
 0.25 507769 505765 503762 498758 496756 494756 490757 482760
      477766 477771 475773 472777 474781 479784 482786 486787
      490786 493784 492776 498773 506771 507769
 0.25 482698 480688 476681 470678 462679 455683 448687 447692
      450694 454699 460702 466705 470705 474704 480701 482698
 0.25 460822 461820 461817 461815 460812 459810 457808 455807
      454808 453808 452810 452811 452813 452814 453816 454817
      455818 456820 456822 458822 459822 460823 460822
 0.25 451733 451731 450730 448730 446730 444730 443731 441732
      440733 438735 437736 438738 438739 440738 442738 444737
      445737 446737 447736 449736 450734 451733
 0.25 427731 425729 422730 420730 417732 414734 412737 410739
      409741 409745 411745 413744 414741 416738 419737 422735
      424734 427731
 0.25 414762 411762 408763 406764 403766 400767 398769 396770
      393773 396774 400772 401771 405769 406768 410765 411764
      414762
 0.25 364054 363052 363051 361051 360051 358051 356053 356055
      356056 357057 359058 361056 363054 364054
 0.25 354793 353786 346792 342790 337793 331798 327805 327807
      330807 337804 343801 347805 351800 354793
 0.25 343116 343113 342112 340113 341115 342116 343116 343116
 0.25 340100 340095 339090 336086 335082 336078 333076 328077
      325081 326086 332087 334090 335095 336099 337103 338102
      340100
 0.25 340052 340051 338050 337049 336049 334051 332052 330053
      329054 328055 328057 330058 332058 334059 336058 338057
      339056 339054 340053 340052
 0.25 326803 325803 325801 324799 323798 321798 319799 318800
      317800 316800 314802 313803 311805 311807 313808 315808
      317808 318807 320807 322806 324806 324805 325804 326803
 0.25 321117 320114 318116 317118 318119 319119 320118 321117
 0.25 320099 320097 318095 316094 315094 313095 311096 311098
      312100 313101 314101 316102 318102 318101 320100 320099
 0.25 312945 312938 311933 306924 305920 306916 309913 311908
      310901 308895 306893 304894 300903 296914 294920 294926
      294937 296943 299947 303950 308950 312945
 0.25 292106 290100 287097 286093 290092 293090 294086 292083
      288081 278075 265072 259072 261076 268085 279090 282092
      281094 278098 277103 280108 284113 289111 292106
 0.25 283815 282811 278809 274807 270806 265805 261805 256805
      254808 256811 259813 264815 268816 272817 277817 282815
      283815
 0.25 250802 250800 250798 250797 248797 247798 246799 246801
      245803 244805 244807 244809 245810 247809 247808 248806
      249806 250804 250803 250802
 0.50 530899 530890 528886 526880 526873 526864 525857 524851
      521848 516850 513853 509861 506870 503883 505890 508893
      513898 520904 523906 526905 530899
 0.50 468689 467688 466687 465686 463686 463685 461685 460686
      458686 456687 455687 453688 451689 453691 455691 457691
      459691 460691 461691 462691 464691 466691 467690 468689
 0.50 303931 303928 303927 302926 301926 300926 300928 301931
      301933 303933 303932 303931
 0.50 301920 301918 300920 301921 301920
 0.50 268812 268810 267810 265809 265808 263808 262807 260807
      258809 260810 261811 262811 264812 266812 267812 268812
      268812

$$





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