Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250712
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 25/1200 UTC THRU MAY 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...


...OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

THE AMPLIFIED...FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH NOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS GENERATING 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES SOME 5-6
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM THE OH VALLEY
ENE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WHILE THE
ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...PIVOTING
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND. SUCH A NEGATIVE TILT AND SHORTENING WAVELENGTH
BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ROBUST
DPVA/UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ALONG-STREAM DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM
EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ/SOUTHERN NY NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND AS SUCH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SWATH OF MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...ALONG
WITH ANOTHER MAX NEAR/ALONG LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO UNDERNEATH THE
TROWAL WHERE THE MODELS DEPICT ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE VIA THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING NORTH.
ACROSS BOTH AREAS...INSTABILITY WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE (MEAN CAPES AT
MOST ~200 J/KG PER THE MODELS)...THEREBY INHIBITING SHORT-TERM
RAINFALL RATES AS EXPECT THE BULK OF 1-1.5" AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS
TO FALL WITHIN A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SHORT-TERM RUNOFF ISSUES.

ACROSS EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN WV...OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED
RAINFALL TODAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS/ELONGATED TROWAL WILL LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL
0.50-1.0 INCH OF AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
OVER THIS REGION WILL ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE OF HIGHER
TOTALS AS WELL AS RAINFALL RATES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
WET SOILS/LOW FFG VALUES...WILL INCLUDE A MARGINAL RISK OVER THIS
AREA IN THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 559107 551114 543119 536124 527128 525129 522129 519128
      518125 512116 510112 506110 497115 494115 492112 490107
      489100 490091 493078 491063 488047 489033 494020 496014
      493010 487007 482005 480003 477004 474999 475989 482979
      486976 491974 493972 492970 489965 487962 482960 480958
      477957 471957 467957 465955 459954 455952 454947 453939
      454934 459923 462917 469916 474915 479914 489917 497921
      503922 507924 510926 513924 517923 530938 534941 538944
      545952 550960 553967 554974 555978 558981 563985 565985
      567988 568991 569997
 0.01 535179 535171 532165 533155 533149 531146 528142 523142
      520143 519146 518156 520162 521167 522170 521176 523179
      526183 530183 535179
 0.01 512176 512170 511165 509157 508151 504150 500137 496130
      492126 485122 480117 485103 486100 487095 484089 476087
      471085 468086 466088 462096 459101 457101 455098 453091
      447088 442086 439084 436085 432089 430086 427085 424086
      424089 427095 430097 431101 430105 427105 428108 433111
      436115 437119 438123 438129 436135 434145 435154 438160
      446169 446173 444176 439180 437182 437186 436191 438194
      442194 447190 450186 452183 455182 468190 470185 467182
      464180 463176 463170 466167 469165 474164 481164 485165
      484168 483178 482183 480188 480193 478195 472197 462199
      459200 457205 455216 458222 460224 463224 473219 485220
      493220 497216 499206 497199 494194 492189 493183 495180
      497179 501178 508176 512176
 0.01 496812 492793 491782 488775 482763 481757 483751 484742
      482731 481723 480719 479715 478704 475697 473680 472668
      471662 471658 470647 468637 465633 461630 456630 450631
      428643 422643 416647 411651 408655 399665 388674 381683
      375692 369702 358710 348716 338721 324728 319733 315737
      302755 299758 295761 290760 288758 282756 278757 273759
      264765 252773 247777 244782 245787 241783 233784 228788
      225792 223797 223804 226819 226829 225832 225836 226844
      228851 230853 234854 239854 243852 248849 265834 282821
      286815 291810 298801 302796 306793 314786 332771 342764
      347762 352762 361761 368759 371757 375758 375763 373766
      371769 368770 363773 356775 354777 352782 352786 351790
      349793 346796 345803 348807 350809 353809 355807 356809
      355815 354824 351830 350837 352839 355839 358841 359843
      362849 364854 369857 379863 382865 385864 392864 396863
      398864 404864 408860 412857 424851 433841 439841 444844
      449845 453848 457853 459854 463854 470853 472848 473844
      475842 479838 485836 489834 494830 496825 495816 496812
 0.01 452078 450074 446072 443069 440067 436066 432068 430073
      430078 434082 436078 439074 444076 448080 451080 452078
 0.01 425139 426136 426134 426132 426129 426127 425126 425127
      423129 422131 422133 421136 421138 421140 423141 424141
      425139 425139
 0.01 429051 429044 428040 428035 426032 423024 420015 419004
      416997 412989 407984 403977 397974 387974 383979 382983
      383988 385997 387004 392011 391022 392028 392033 392039
      390044 388045 385049 385052 387053 388056 384063 381066
      379066 377064 370063 367066 369068 373070 374075 374079
      376083 382088 380092 383094 385095 387093 390090 395090
      402093 402106 403109 406110 409109 412106 414097 414085
      417078 420070 424063 429051
 0.01 388959 388952 386947 386943 384936 384929 382922 380920
      377919 375925 375931 376940 378947 380954 382958 386961
      388959
 0.25 566044 565033 564025 559010 556002 553997 545989 539985
      536985 533986 528989 525989 519985 512984 506985 502988
      497994 496997 498000 508004 510008 511013 511021 514028
      517034 521039 526043 529049 531055 527073 521086 520094
      521102 526107 530109 537108 541105 545101 550100 557097
      560093 562090
 0.25 482806 481797 478789 472778 467776 463778 460779 458778
      454774 453768 453764 455763 461759 463757 463754 462748
      464741 464734 462728 459720 459709 460700 461694 461690
      461687 459678 458661 457648 453645 447646 441645 435645
      423651 417653 411658 402667 394675 387682 376699 368709
      359717 334729 325734 317742 312751 305760 302764 297766
      284763 278763 272766 263774 258783 254792 250803 245809
      240821 235832 233839 234845 236847 240847 245843 248838
      249832 252828 256826 265819 270812 274806 278803 286796
      296788 306781 317776 324770 342755 359742 364737 370734
      375731 382729 386730 389734 395743 395757 391771 389784
      387790 384794 378798 373802 366812 363816 362823 365828
      366834 368841 371847 375851 379853 386852 390848 393844
      395837 396830 401825 404826 406829 413830 417830 423829
      429828 433826 440823 444819 448816 453816 462817 470818
      474820 478820 481815 482806
 0.25 473108 473106 473105 472103 470104 469105 468107 468110
      469112 471112 472111 473109 473108
 0.25 469095 469093 469092 467093 468095 469095 469095
 0.25 452156 452151 453146 453143 451139 450137 446137 446140
      446143 444144 442145 441149 441152 443155 444158 445161
      449162 451158 452156
 0.25 442094 441093 441091 440090 438090 437090 437093 438095
      440095 441094 442094
 0.25 409068 405065 404061 405058 400057 399062 397067 395071
      395078 399080 402076 404072 406069 409068
 0.25 406017 407014 407012 407010 407007 407005 406003 405003
      404002 404003 403005 403006 402007 402009 402012 402014
      402015 403016 404018 406018 406017
 0.25 392997 392995 392993 392991 391988 390990 390993 390995
      390997 390998 392997
 0.50 563065 564055 564048 562041 560035 552030 549025 547023
      547020 548014 547009 545004 541002 538003 537005 535012
      532015 524020 519021 520025 523030 528031 535031 538028
      542027 543033 545041 544050 540062 538069 535073 530082
      529089 530095 532099 537100 545094 554092 557089 559084
      563068 563065
 0.50 517994 516993 515991 514991 513993 512993 511993 512994
      513994 515994 516994 517994
 0.50 453663 453655 451652 449652 444651 440650 437649 433649
      424653 416655 409662 404669 398674 390683 385691 380697
      376704 371711 364718 358723 349725 343727 337729 329734
      323739 318746 314753 310758 305765 302769 296770 286767
      282766 277767 264777 261784 260795 261801 263803 267802
      270800 279796 287791 293785 299780 305774 309773 315772
      323768 329764 343750 355739 369729 376724 384722 390722
      393725 395731 398735 399737 400743 401755 397776 399781
      403781 407783 409784 410787 414798 413804 412809 409817
      409823 412826 417827 422825 425823 427819 430816 435815
      440810 446802 448796 448789 449766 447753 438756 431759
      425757 427747 426735 428732 433730 438725 441718 447712
      453705 455700 454695 453677 453663
 0.50 455749 455747 455744 453745 452747 453750 454751 455749
      455749
 0.50 447153 447151 446150 445149 444150 444152 445153 446154
      447153
 0.50 400795 397793 394793 390795 384798 380803 376806 372810
      369815 368818 368821 373835 375842 379845 384845 388841
      389833 389826 387820 388813 389808 391807 395810 397812
      400811 398802 400795
 0.50 244839 245837 245835 245833 244831 243831 242831 240833
      239833 238835 238836 237838 237839 236840 236842 237844
      239845 241844 241843 242842 243841 244840 244839
 1.00 555072 556068 555065 552068 549071 547074 543076 539078
      537083 538087 540088 542084 545081 550081 553078 555073
      555072
 1.00 446695 445680 444673 441668 436661 434656 430654 420658
      415660 412663 406670 400676 394683 389690 387699 386704
      386710 388715 392716 401718 409719 411717 414713 418704
      419703 419709 422713 425716 429718 434716 438714 442711
      445703 446695
 1.00 443781 444776 443771 440767 435770 432773 430781 428787
      425792 424796 425800 429803 433803 436802 439798 441791
      442783 443781
 1.00 418745 418744 417743 416742 414741 412740 412742 411743
      409743 407744 407745 407747 407750 408751 410751 412750
      413749 415748 417748 418746 418745
 1.00 420818 418816 416817 415819 416821 416822 418822 419820
      420818 420818
 1.00 349734 349731 347730 343731 336735 329739 324744 320750
      318757 319761 323762 329757 334752 339747 344743 348736
      349734
 1.00 292780 292774 289771 285770 280771 276773 274776 273781
      274785 278788 282788 285787 289784 292780 292780
 1.50 431667 428663 422663 414665 410671 405675 397683 394687
      396694 397698 396701 393706 393711 395713 400711 403706
      404703 404699 401695 400690 402688 411680 416677 423676
      430673 431667
 1.50 434698 435696 433694 431696 431697 430699 430701 431701
      432702 433701 434700 434698
 1.50 437792 437789 437787 436785 435787 435789 435792 437794
      437792
 1.50 288781 289778 289776 288774 287774 286773 284773 282773
      280774 279776 277778 277779 277780 277782 277783 278784
      280785 281786 283785 285784 286783 287783 288781 288781
 2.00 285781 286779 285777 284776 282776 281777 281778 280780
      279782 281783 283783 285782 285781

$$




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