Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271907
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 28/0000 UTC THRU MAR 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...


...TN VALLEY...OH
VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST...

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE IDEA OF SHEARING A
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENE
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST DURING DAY 1. THE COMBINATION OF COMPACT DYNAMICAL FORCING
(DPVA/UPPER DIVERGENCE) AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (MUCAPES
AVERAGING 1000-2000 J/KG) AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 35-40 KT
LLJ AND ATTENDANT POSITIVE PW AND LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
ANOMALIES ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THE COMPOSITE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MAX
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50-1.0" OVER THE TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY...BUT AS PER THE MOST RECENT CAM TRENDS... LOCALIZED
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.5+ INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THESE
AREAS. A WPC MARGINAL THREAT AREA WAS ISSUED BASED ON QPF
POTENTIAL AS PER A COMBINATION OF THE REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED
RECENT RUNS OF THE ARW...SSEO MEAN...AND WPC CONTINUITY.


...EASTERN GREAT BASIN...ROCKIES...HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL ALLOW
THIS SYSTEM TO A AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY AS IT REACHES THE
ROCKIES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WHERE THE MORE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO A
DEEPENING CLOSED LOW. THE ENSUING LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LEAD
TO AN ELONGATED STRIPE OF MOD-HVY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND EVOLVING/EXPANDING CCB AND DEEPENING TROWAL.
MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES WERE MORE PRONOUNCED WITHIN THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT (PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LOCATION/TIMING)...WITH THE NAM A NOTABLE DRY
OUTLIER ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND POINTS SOUTH WHERE THE
THERMODYNAMICS (GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES) WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. WPC UTILIZED
A NON-NAM BLEND WITH THE QPF... INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES
MEANS...WHICH YIELDED AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-1.5" ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK INTO NORTH TX.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 555078 555070 552064 550060 546055 540049 532042 524032
      517022 516018 517012 516009 513004 508998 506000 503000
      502998 498998 495003 491016 484022 475028 466021 458013
      449003 441995 431993 421989 410988 404987 400985 389981
      377976 372973 364970 355966 344964 331963 326962 324965
      307979 299988 296992 295995 296998 295001 293002 289004
      291008 291010 294012 303017 314019 324025 334028 339029
      341033 340041 338051 334054 329055 327057 326059 330068
      330075 330079 328080 319086 315088 315092 317093 320093
      322095 323099 323103 325108 328112 336115 341119 346121
      348126 354135 362141 366144 370143 375142 383143 386144
      389146 394147 400146 401135 402132 405131 409129 414128
      419131 422134 426132 433125 437122 440121 442123 441132
      437137 435143 436145 439144 447135 453134 458130 465123
      468119 472117 476115 479109 477102 480097 481092 477087
      473085 469084 470081 479074 481072 480069 481065 484063
      489066 490071 493077 497080 502080 504077 507076 508081
      511087 518093 520096 523097 528098 533096 538092 549088
      555078
 0.01 537207 535193 532187 529182 525176 522169 518163 512157
      511155 513152 517148 516144 515142 508140 505140 502141
      499143 496141 492137 484135 483143 481146 481150 479154
      475153 471149 469147 464146 459148 455152 453154 454159
      455164 459166 460168 466167 469169 470173 473178 478184
      481191 483199 482201 479202 473201 469206 465209 461209
      459211 454214 451216 448216 445217 440216 437221 438224
      441225 446224 448223 452224 452228 450233 444235 441236
      440239 447242 441252 439257 437268 437277 435287 433290
      433293 437295 440294 445294 452295 457300 456304 455306
      454315 458321 465324 469326 473325 478326 483322 487318
      489316 492316 497313 502309 505304 509296 515283 520268
      526249 527243 529240 530229 534220 537207
 0.01 511665 510660 507655 501647 495638 490633 487636 484638
      480640 471637 461635 450634 439636 434637 430639 421645
      414652 411656 410663 409666 405667 400669 397698 395709
      394715 392720 389724 385727 377732 363751 360755 356758
      349767 336782 333791 335806 336811 334816 327827 323838
      321842 317847 310853 306856 306862 304867 305874 305888
      306895 306899 308902 309912 313925 314930 312937 309946
      308952 309957 312961 316964 319963 320961 322956 329934
      333921 335914 339909 347904 354898 371889 382885 386883
      393881 400883 402884 406883 410880 414875 416872 418866
      421855 422849 421841 421836 423832 433814 436806 439802
      445790 448788 450790 452794 459801 462806 464811 464819
      465824 466826 469829 473827 477822 479816 483802 487788
      489776 491769 492764 495752 499742 504731 507725 509719
      510710 510704 508695 508687 511665
 0.01 442691 439690 436691 434690 431690 427691 426693 422695
      423698 425700 428700 430701 434700 437699 438696 440694
      442691
 0.01 373116 374112 373109 370107 366107 359105 356100 354095
      347093 345094 345098 345105 348110 353113 358116 363115
      370117 373116
 0.01 272781 273779 272777 271776 270777 270778 269779 270781
      272782 272781
 0.25 512276 515268 515259 515250 513244 509233 503221 498212
      491209 484208 476209 466214 465218 465223 465227 462234
      460237 460242 460246 459254 457264 458270 462275 465279
      470290 471297 470304 469309 475312 479312 483309 488306
      492302 498295 501290 505287 509282 512276
 0.25 504702 504694 503686 499673 488657 485655 480657 473665
      470673 467687 468694 466697 460706 458711 458716 464723
      468725 472726 475732 479733 483733 483738 482745 483752
      486750 489746 495737 499727 502715 504709 504702
 0.25 485230 485229 484228 482227 480227 480228 480229 481231
      483231 485231 485230
 0.25 480223 479223 477222 476222 477224 479224 480223
 0.25 457655 457649 454647 448645 440645 433646 426650 422657
      422661 423665 426668 429669 437668 445667 451664 456658
      457655
 0.25 465102 463096 461093 458092 456085 457075 454067 453064
      453058 455048 458042 460039 460035 458030 454025 449021
      444016 439014 424013 415005 405000 391994 378989 367983
      356978 348976 341975 335975 331977 328980 325984 320984
      316983 314985 312991 310999 313006 317010 325014 346025
      354026 357028 358032 361037 363041 361045 356057 356072
      358074 362073 366074 368077 370084 374089 378093 384097
      389099 392103 398103 400106 400109 399113 401116 406116
      411115 414110 418104 421098 422095 425094 438100 440100
      443097 444093 444088 440082 440078 442077 446080 449084
      450088 449091 450097 451100 452103 452109 453113 456113
      465102
 0.25 425751 425742 422737 418732 414729 412725 409719 411712
      413704 414697 412693 410692 407695 405701 403714 400728
      396738 388746 383751 380757 381761 385768 384774 383782
      383786 382788 380793 378799 375804 364810 360813 356814
      355810 355806 353808 352816 349821 345824 341830 337839
      336845 336850 337854 337858 335865 330876 327887 325893
      324897 326900 329903 333903 335901 338897 344892 350891
      354888 362882 365878 371875 378874 385872 389869 392865
      397855 400849 403845 406839 407831 409825 410819 411804
      411796 414791 417785 419778 422766 424757 425751
 0.25 401049 398041 394036 389030 384026 380025 375025 373027
      374030 380035 386038 385046 387044 390047 393053 397053
      400051 401049
 0.25 386058 385056 384056 383055 381055 379055 378055 377056
      375056 374056 373057 372059 373062 375063 377064 378065
      380066 382065 383063 384062 385061 386059 386058
 0.25 377044 376043 374043 373044 374045 376046 377044
 0.50 512268 513261 513255 512248 510242 501224 498219 495215
      486211 481211 477212 475214 477217 481221 487226 488230
      487233 482236 480231 477229 472230 469233 467237 465244
      464253 465259 471264 474269 476275 481283 484288 489290
      497288 500285 504281 509275 512268
 0.50 437656 437654 436651 435651 433651 432651 430651 428652
      427654 426655 426657 425657 426657 426659 428661 430661
      431660 433659 435658 436657 437656
 0.50 453081 447058 450044 451039 450035 448029 445025 440023
      434022 430023 424024 420020 411012 394002 373992 354984
      347983 339983 334985 330988 326993 324999 321003 322008
      326011 331012 337016 343019 356019 368019 374018 382019
      393020 399022 402026 409033 412038 411044 407049 403053
      395058 391061 391067 387079 390084 392086 394089 397094
      401090 405088 406082 408075 409072 412071 417070 421076
      424088 426091 429094 432092 432087 432083 434082 436080
      435078 438071 441070 443072 446076 450080 453081
 0.50 417099 417097 415095 413096 412096 411096 410098 409100
      408103 408105 408107 409110 410110 412108 412107 413106
      414105 415104 416102 417099 417099
 0.50 407065 407063 407062 405061 403061 402061 400061 399062
      398064 399067 400067 401067 403067 405066 407066 407065
 0.50 389089 389088 388086 388085 387084 386083 384083 384084
      385086 386086 387088 388088 389089 389089
 0.50 390822 390817 388815 386815 384816 382818 379820 377822
      375823 373826 371828 374829 378828 380827 383826 387826
      389824 390822
 0.50 390851 391847 389843 385844 383846 381848 377849 371846
      366843 361847 355859 347871 344875 341884 345885 348886
      351886 356881 359876 363871 366869 370868 377867 384864
      390852 390851
 0.50 381081 380076 378073 374070 373065 370063 368064 371068
      374071 373077 374082 377085 380083 381081
 0.50 356837 356835 355834 353835 352837 353838 355837 356837
 1.00 510259 510251 508245 504239 501234 498229 495223 492227
      493232 494235 497241 501245 504251 506257 510259
 1.00 502275 504267 503260 497252 492242 488238 486237 484239
      481239 478233 476232 472236 472242 474248 481256 485267
      490276 495279 500277 502275
 1.00 440050 440045 441040 440036 438034 435033 431033 428035
      426037 425039 425044 425047 427051 427053 430055 434054
      435054 438052 440050
 1.00 357005 358001 357996 353992 350991 346992 340994 337995
      335997 335000 329002 328005 331007 336009 342011 347010
      353007 357005
 1.50 500269 499264 498259 496254 494251 492245 488242 486241
      484245 484250 486255 488259 490264 493269 496272 498272
      500269 500269
 1.50 499237 499234 498233 497231 495229 494231 495232 495233
      496235 497237 499238 499237
 1.50 478238 477237 475237 475239 477240 478238
 2.00 497262 496260 496259 495257 495256 494254 493253 492251
      491250 491249 490247 489246 488246 488247 488249 488252
      488253 489255 490256 490258 491259 492261 494263 495264
      497262

$$




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