Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 270638
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 27/1200 UTC THRU AUG 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST...

THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
RAINS/CONVECTION THRU THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD..WITH EVEN HEAVIER RAINS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST VICINITY OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY/VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE MORE
ORGANIZED RAINS THRU ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE A
RESULT OF DECENT HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE CLOSED H5
LOW REACHES CENTRAL CO BY THURSDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES..SO KEPT AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS H5 TROF ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SIDE..AS PER MUCH OF THE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE.  DOWNSTREAM THRU THE
CENTRAL PLAINS..HOWEVER..RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HEAVIER..AS
A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP THRU
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS TROF..BRINGING IN HIGHER MOISTURE AND
LEADING TO POOLING OF PWS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THIS WILL SET UP AN EXPANDING AND
INCREASINGLY HEAVY OVERRUNNING CONVECTIVE EVENT..WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AXIS EXPECTED ACROSS NE AND EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN IA BY LATER IN THIS PERIOD.  MODEL QPFS..INCLUDING THE
GLOBAL AND HIRES..WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT..SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS RATHER HIGH..WITH AT
LEAST AN AXIS OF 1-2+ INCH RAINS WITH ISOLATED 3-4+ INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE.


...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF MOVING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL
FOCUS/SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  POOLING OF FAIRLY HIGH PWS VICINITY
OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES..BUT
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP AREAL AVERAGE RAINS IN THE
0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE IN GENERAL..IN LINE WITH MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS.


...WESTERN GULF COAST...

THE EASTERLY WAVE THAT REACHED THE MID/UPPER TX COAST EARLIER
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COAST THIS PERIOD.  THE VERY HIGH
MOISTURE..PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES..THAT THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD..AS WILL SOME 15-20+ KTS OR
SO OF H85 FLOW INTO THE TX COAST.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TX COAST..ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY..WITH SOME 0.50-1.00 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINS
LIKELY..BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS ALSO POSSIBLE.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 460624 460631 459637 457647 457655 456660 453670 445684
      444696 441705 437715 436719 435722 438722 442715 447707
      452699 456689 462679 469668 475674 475686 472696 468708
      463715 458723 448734 441741 438746 434749 429759 427765
      425770 419790 415800 412810 410821 407830 405841 402852
      400864 406870 418879 432892 445908 451926 454939 456944
      456952 456960 454966 451975 445998 443012 444023 445029
      446033 450041 454052 455056 454062 451071 449076 446078
      442080 441083 442086 443090 445091 449094 447095 443099
      441103 438105 435105 431103 428108 425116 418124 411127
      408130 404131 394129 384127 379126 377124 374121 375118
      375115 372114 370114 369117 367121 363121 360119 358120
      354122 346125 342125 341123 341117 344111 347109 352109
      358111 362107 361099 359096 354095 357091 359088 363077
      360074 358069 358064 357060 357055 359051 354049 350052
      345059 347070 348075 350081 350084 347086 344089 344093
      344096 342098 337091 330090 327087 324083 319081 316085
      319090 325095 328099 328101 323102 320105 317106 313105
      307098 305097 301097 290096 279094 271091 264085 261081
      262076 263070 267070 272070 277069 286065 291063 295065
      299068 302065 308059 309057 307055 304051 303047 305043
      306038 307036 319036 332028 337020 341012 353996 362980
      380971 389967 391965 391961 390955 386944 381937 378929
      376920 374916 374909 375897 376886 377875 379864 379855
      380850 380830 384820 385813 386806 385799 386793 389783
      392779 396776 399777 401773 403764 405760 403755 403750
      404745 404740 405735 408723 413712 414707 411703 413692
      417681 420673 427658 437643
 0.01 437643 439641 439640 440639 441638 442636 443635 443634
      445633 446631 446630 447629 448628
 0.01 518708 516691 512678 504652 502645 499641 495638 494637
      490638 488643 487649 487663 489680 490688 490695 491712
      491728 490741 490750 491759 494764 497768 501768 503769
      504774 505779 506781 509781 512778 514770 516764 516757
      517743 518727 518720 518711 518708
 0.01 310998 310994 310990 308988 307985 305983 303983 299982
      295983 295985 295989 295993 296996 298998 300000 302001
      306001 308000 310998
 0.01 310939 307907 308873 306866 304865 300864 294866 288869
      283873 282879 284886 281892 278896 276902 276907 274909
      266910 259911 254913 251918 251927 257956 258962 259970
      261976 262978 266979 270983 277983 288977 296970 305960
      307956 308950 310939
 0.01 296796 292790 284787 267787 257788 254790 249792 244796
      240803 237810 237820 239828 243835 247835 249833 252830
      253826 252815 253810 255814 257818 261819 268821 277820
      279811 293803 296796
 0.25 505696 505693 505691 505688 505686 504683 504681 503680
      501680 501682 500684 500685 500687 500690 500692 501695
      501697 502700 504701 505699 505697 505696
 0.25 500721 499719 499718 499719 500721 500722 500721
 0.25 451639 449640 446644 442652 437661 435670 431680 429683
      429686 432685 436678 441669 446661 449652 451642 451639
 0.25 442976 443967 443959 443951 442945 440939 436933 433929
      429927 419926 409922 406926 404932 400928 397924 391916
      388917 388921 389926 398947 401953 402959 400969 395979
      387988 380995 374001 373008 377011 383013 385014 386018
      386024 387030 393038 394041 393044 389048 387050 386055
      387059 386063 389085 391089 396092 400095 399104 396108
      396110 398112 405116 414111 417107 419102 421088 426078
      436057 437048 436040 436027 439995 442976
 0.25 424727 422724 420728 417735 414742 412749 409758 407766
      407773 411773 413770 415762 417752 419745 421737 423729
      424727
 0.25 337054 336052 334052 332052 331052 329053 328053 327054
      326055 325057 326059 327059 328060 330060 332059 334058
      334057 335056 336055 337054
 0.25 301882 301880 299878 298878 296877 294877 293878 292880
      292881 292882 293883 294884 296885 298885 298884 300884
      301882
 0.25 298952 299935 299927 298918 296912 293908 288908 284913
      279923 274933 270947 267960 267964 268967 272970 279971
      285970 290967 294962 298952
 0.25 248822 249818 249814 249810 249806 246803 244805 243807
      242810 241813 241817 242821 243823 245826 247825 248822
 0.50 440964 440951 438943 436940 433937 429936 424938 420943
      417942 415940 410935 407940 407952 407961 405971 401979
      393993 391997 392002 394011 397019 401025 405027 406031
      404042 406045 406050 407055 409057 412061 413066 410073
      408078 407082 409090 409094 408099 407105 409108 411106
      412100 414089 416082 418069 419065 422061 427056 429048
      431035 434014 436990 438978 440964
 0.50 401055 401053 401051 401050 399049 398050 397051 396053
      395055 395057 397059 398060 400058 400057 401055
 0.50 296939 297932 296924 295918 292915 288917 285923 281931
      277941 275954 273958 271960 272962 276966 281967 285965
      290962 294954 294947 296940 296939
 1.00 435978 435968 435957 433951 429950 425952 422957 416959
      413957 411966 407980 404987 401995 403004 406011 409017
      414017 420014 424014 427011 429004 429999 434983 435978
 1.00 292937 293935 293933 293931 293929 292927 290929 289931
      289933 288934 288935 287937 287939 286939 286941 286943
      286945 287945 288944 289943 290942 290941 291939 292937
      292937
 1.50 431976 432969 432961 430957 427957 421964 416968 412972
      411977 408987 407993 407000 409005 412008 415008 419006
      422003 424999 427987 431978 431976
 2.00 428978 429968 428964 426963 423968 419972 416976 412982
      411989 410996 411001 415002 417001 420994 423989 426984
      428978

$$





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