Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS04 KWBC 110734
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 AM EST THU JAN 11 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 11/1200 UTC THRU JAN 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AREAS EAST...

A RATHER AMPLIFIED, FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WITH TWO DISTINCT
STREAMS WILL EJECT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
DAY. THE SOMEWHAT PHASED VORTICITY FIELD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER DISTINCT, ELONGATED SSW-NNE
DEFORMATION ZONE/NARROW COLD CONVEYOR BELT (CCB) ALONG THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE BROADENING WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (DEEPENING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER THE
290-300K SURFACES) WILL LEAD TO AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
LIGHT-MODERATE LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN, HOWEVER OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH THE ANOMALOUS PW VALUES (APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES) AND ROBUST 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX WILL PRODUCE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS -- WHERE AMOUNTS PER A
BLEND OF HIGH-RES CAMS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT 24 HOUR TOTALS
TOPPING 3-4+ INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SOIL
MOISTURE (CURRENT FFG), NEGLIGIBLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AND
RELATIVE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT, WPC MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK IN THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK INHERITED FROM
YESTERDAY`S DAY 2 ERO -- DENOTING AT MOST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING. THE 00Z HREF 40KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES
SUPPORT THIS IDEA -- WITH PROBS LESS THAN 15% FOR HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING AN 1 INCH AND 3-HOURLY RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ANOTHER
NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER QPF TOTALS WAS NOTED (BETWEEN 1.5-3
INCHES), WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION (MUCAPES AVERAGING 200-400 J/KG) ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, COINCIDING WITH THE FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVER THIS AREA, HREF PROBS OF
EXCEEDING 1"/HOUR RATES ARE MUCH HIGHER, WITH POCKETS OF 20-30+
PROBS OF EXCEEDING 2" IN 3 HOURS (I.E. APPROACHING THE 3-HOURLY
FFG VALUES). FOR THIS REGION HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA THAT WAS INHERITED FROM WEDNESDAY`S DAY 2 ERO, THOUGH A
BIT NARROWER BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE OF DETERMINISTIC QPFs ALONG
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES.

THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. FOR FURTHER DETAILS
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS, PLEASE
REFER TO THE QPFHSD.


...NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ...

A RATHER POTENT AND PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
ROLL INTO THE PAC NW TODAY. EXPECT A COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND MTN SNOW FROM WA/OR INTO THE INTERIOR NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WPC HIGHLIGHTED COASTAL RANGES OF WA/OR INTO THE CASCADES AND
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE BLUE, SAWTOOTH AND BITTERROOTS. A BLEND OF
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, LEAD BY THE NBM, WAS FOLLOWED HERE.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 507633 501629 497625 494627 491630 487628 483630 481632
      481637 474642 471650 469656 458665 454674 449681 444688
      441696 437703 430711 428713 425712 419709 415710 414714
      409721 404726 400731 394736 387739 385742 381743 374740
      371736 370732 368730 364732 349738 340743 335744 331743
      322744 318746 316748 309752 306759 303762 298763 291763
      284761 277761 240766 233769 229776 227779 226785 222792
      223799 224805 226809 231810 233804 236803 240807 244811
      248813 255810 260807 264806 272806 278807 283809 287812
      294817 297818 296821 290818 287817 281817 277819 276822
      278826 278828 284829 290830 296829 304829 307833 304835
      287837 277837 272833 271830 267830 258831 249832 246834
      244833 240831 235835 232838 231842 231847 234850 239852
      252860 259863 262868 264872 263876 261883 260888 260894
      259900 256903 249918 248921 249923 251931 252935 254937
      253940 250941 244946 243949 243952 244956 248958 252960
      253963 258967 262969 266969 273970 281971 291971 296971
      299969 312964 319962 328959 332957 338957 345961 348969
      350971 353972 358972 361970 366970 366974 363981 362992
      362001 364003 367003 374000 382998 394991 408982 421973
      426969 433967 440964 446961 451959 454958 459962 464967
      469970 480970 486962 491957 496950 504937 512924 523890
      529873 531853 533830 534807 536779 537754 538742 538733
      538726
 0.01 514277 516259 518250 518242 518233 518226 516213 514178
      517143 514132 511118 504093 484047 479037 474027 472022
      469017 466016 463020 458025 454027 448031 445031 443033
      438033 436037 436040 438043 441048 446056 447060 445062
      441066 433071 435074 440075 444079 447085 448087 446089
      442089 438088 433090 429087 424086 420089 422093 424095
      424099 419101 415101 413099 410095 408094 405098 403103
      399107 395110 390112 384113 380116 379123 381128 397142
      403151 405149 404143 403137 401130 401126 402123 406121
      414122 416122 417125 418131 416137 418149 414160 420169
      428175 432180 433187 437199 437205 432206 427203 421200
      411202 413205 412208 410210 408207 408204 407200 406196
      401198 402201 403203 401206 398211 397217 399225 393225
      390228 382232 393249 404255 412260 417264 420269 425278
      427286 427294 431305 436307 442309 452309 458310 463310
      473314 479314 485314 494308 502302 507293 511285 514277
 0.01 428187 429185 427187 425186 425189 427187 428187 428187
 0.01 421216 420214 420212 419211 419209 419207 417206 415205
      413207 415209 415210 416212 417213 417215 419217 421216
 0.01 417076 417070 418067 418061 415057 413054 408052 399054
      392059 386065 384069 385075 391082 393082 398080 404081
      404077 407077 415077 417076
 0.01 347050 345046 342041 340039 335036 322035 317033 314028
      311025 307023 303025 301029 304040 306043 311043 315043
      318048 322051 329051 333053 338054 344052 347050
 0.01 339989 339984 337984 333984 332986 330986 328988 326990
      326995 326997 328999 329999 331997 333995 337993 337991
      339989
 0.25 529745 528732 527725 526719 523711 519703 514695 509691
      496692 483697 482700 483703 480704 477702 472697 468696
      464698 459705 454707 451711 446717 443723 438728 432734
      428741 423742 422740 419739 416741 411745 401756 394760
      392765 390768 382772 375775 365777 355775 351771 345767
      331762 321763 313766 305769 298769 282765 275766 267768
      252774 247774 243773 240773 237775 238780 235784 235787
      237789 242787 245785 251781 258781 263782 266784 277789
      288795 295799 301803 308806 316808 330818 332819 333824
      330830 332840 337847 337853 334856 329860 324864 320865
      317865 311864 302865 294867 287871 279876 278880 278886
      278889 280895 282902 279908 279914 283920 287922 289926
      293944 305949 335942 343939 348936 357933 363927 386909
      408892 413887 418880 423875 428871 438868 443867 448867
      454870 456873 456877 455882 454886 451894 441906 436913
      432919 428924 424929 412939 403948 392960 387966 385971
      388972 432937 437931 445929 459925 468920 473915 484904
      493893 498886 501878 508862 512856 515848 517839 521828
      524816 525805 527786 529764 529745
 0.25 504263 505254 505244 505224 504206 502186 502176 500167
      498150 498131 491114 490106 487098 482086 478080 474076
      471073 468074 466082 466091 467096 465100 461099 458103
      461109 464117 463123 461126 456128 450131 446134 439135
      434139 432145 431150 431154 434161 442173 443179 442182
      441185 442188 454191 457187 460187 463188 464192 463195
      460196 457197 457202 455210 449212 437213 426218 423220
      422226 419229 416227 414226 414221 412218 410220 410227
      408232 406233 401237 398239 399242 404245 412247 420249
      428250 434249 440251 449253 455256 461261 466266 470271
      473277 477293 480298 486302 490301 493299 497293 500284
      501274 501267 504263
 0.25 491662 490659 490658 489657 488656 486657 486658 485659
      484661 484664 484666 485669 487670 487671 489671 490670
      490669 490667 491664 491663 491662
 0.25 458103 454098 450093 445094 440092 436093 435095 433095
      431093 426090 426092 427095 429100 424103 422104 420107
      423112 419114 418118 420119 425122 430121 436119 441120
      448121 452117 454110 456105 458103
 0.25 413071 412068 410066 408066 407066 405066 403066 402067
      403068 405069 406070 408070 409070 410071 412072 413071
 0.25 397933 397927 393927 391929 388934 386937 384941 383947
      386950 389947 391945 393940 396936 397933
 0.25 381839 379838 377837 375835 371835 370837 368838 364838
      362841 362845 363848 367848 370847 372846 375844 377842
      379841 381839
 0.25 337782 336780 334779 332778 330778 328779 327779 327781
      326781 325784 323785 323786 324786 326787 327786 329786
      331786 333786 334785 336784 337782
 0.50 519745 519740 518735 516729 513724 509721 504717 502710
      499708 495706 489705 486706 487710 491716 495720 497724
      496731 496738 494741 490739 487740 485746 484749 481750
      477751 475749 469741 467739 467734 468729 478722 480716
      479710 477708 468703 460711 452720 449724 449728 451730
      454735 454742 454750 454756 458760 462762 467762 471766
      470772 467777 462782 460783 457781 454777 453769 451762
      449755 448745 445740 441736 435738 432742 429747 423755
      418758 412758 401767 395775 383779 374785 369788 365790
      357793 352797 347800 344805 342810 344817 344823 341827
      340834 342839 346842 350841 358833 365825 369813 375809
      379812 376818 375824 379827 383829 387829 392826 401819
      410812 418809 417823 422822 428819 445805 450807 454811
      457815 460822 465822 469820 478817 482820 485829 488835
      487839 480849 478855 475863 464883 458894 456899 454905
      459905 465903 469900 473895 480888 488877 494868 497863
      498855 503844 507833 509823 511816 513808 514801 516784
      516776 516769 519745
 0.50 500258 500231 499215 497200 494197 492192 490187 489181
      492171 492166 492159 491153 491145 490138 488133 484129
      480125 474124 471123 468125 465137 460136 456138 453144
      450147 446147 443145 439142 437142 433147 434154 436158
      443167 446173 449177 448183 449186 453188 461184 466182
      470186 472188 472193 470199 468205 464207 460205 459205
      458208 457211 454213 449214 445215 440215 432219 428221
      429226 433230 437229 441230 442232 440234 437237 435240
      440243 446244 457246 461248 465252 476270 484277 489278
      492274 497264 500258
 0.50 453230 453228 453227 452228 451228 449228 448229 449231
      450231 452231 453230
 0.50 454103 453099 450096 447099 444099 438096 435099 433096
      430094 429096 431099 430103 423105 423107 426110 431114
      438114 443116 448109 449103 453103 454103
 0.50 432244 431240 428238 425237 421236 418235 416234 414234
      412235 412240 413242 415244 418245 421246 424246 427246
      430245 432244
 0.50 437787 437784 437782 436780 436779 434779 433780 432781
      432783 431785 430788 430790 432791 433792 435791 436789
      436788 437787
 0.50 423117 422116 420115 419116 420117 422117 423117
 0.50 415856 410851 405850 401851 395851 395848 398844 402841
      407836 408834 406833 401834 394838 390845 377855 364865
      356870 348872 340874 335875 330877 324883 318887 316892
      314894 312898 311903 307911 306914 306918 307935 310938
      313940 321939 329936 338932 353925 359921 366915 378905
      392897 399892 402889 404885 404879 409871 413863 415856
 0.50 324805 324803 323803 322802 320802 320801 318801 317800
      316800 314800 314801 315802 316803 318803 319804 320804
      322805 323806 324806 324805
 0.50 297783 296777 293774 291771 287769 283768 278769 274770
      276774 279777 281779 285782 289784 292785 297783
 0.50 241785 242783 240782 239782 237783 237784 237786 239787
      241785 241785
 1.00 493259 494255 494252 493245 492240 489234 489228 493226
      495222 494215 493209 491206 486203 480202 473205 470208
      465209 460209 458213 449216 445217 440217 439221 442226
      448226 451225 455225 461228 446238 451240 455240 460241
      466244 474247 478252 478254 481255 493259
 1.00 479167 480164 480160 479157 475154 471150 468147 464145
      459145 459153 461157 464161 466165 467171 469172 472171
      475169 479168 479167
 1.00 474713 473712 471711 470713 470714 470716 471718 472717
      473715 474714 474713
 1.00 463178 463176 463174 461174 460174 458175 456177 455179
      455181 457182 458182 459182 460181 461180 462178 463178
 1.00 444159 444157 443156 441155 439155 439153 438153 437153
      438153 439156 441156 442159 443159 444160 444159
 1.00 445764 444761 443757 442752 441750 439747 437745 434746
      433749 432752 431754 431759 432762 435763 437765 440767
      442768 444766 445764
 1.00 424241 423239 421238 419238 417238 416239 417240 419241
      420242 422242 424241
 1.00 439110 438109 437108 435109 437111 438110 439110
 1.00 422777 421770 417768 412770 409773 406778 405785 404790
      401795 394802 391806 390813 386815 389816 392816 398814
      405806 409804 413800 419792 422780 422777
 1.00 384788 381786 377790 373795 368798 360806 357811 354816
      347827 346833 348836 351835 354831 357826 364816 370806
      372801 377798 382798 384791 384788
 1.00 385881 385876 383873 380872 376873 363879 349884 346887
      346892 342897 337902 332908 328914 326920 328924 331925
      338921 343917 350913 356910 362906 372897 377892 382886
      385881
 1.00 324924 323923 321923 320924 321925 323925 324924
 1.50 487246 488244 487241 486241 485239 485240 484243 485244
      485245 486246 487246
 1.50 489218 490215 489212 486208 482206 476207 473208 470213
      465211 462212 459215 456216 447219 444220 444223 446225
      449224 454221 461226 469225 472221 476220 479219 484221
      489218
 1.50 484245 482241 480236 478231 475229 471229 468232 465231
      463233 463238 466239 469238 472240 475242 479245 484245
 1.50 450237 450236 448236 449237 450237
 1.50 417781 417778 416777 415776 414776 413778 412779 411781
      411782 411784 412785 413785 415783 417781 417781
 1.50 367806 367804 365806 365807 364809 363809 362811 362812
      361814 363815 363814 364812 365811 366810 366809 367807
      367806
 1.50 367891 365890 363891 363892 362893 360894 358895 357896
      356898 356899 356900 358900 359901 360901 362899 363898
      364898 365896 367894 367891
 1.50 353828 353826 352826 351827 350829 350831 351831 352831
      353829 353828
 1.50 352903 351902 349902 348902 346903 344903 344904 342906
      344907 346907 348907 349906 350906 351904 352903
 2.00 485217 486215 486212 484211 482210 481209 479209 477209
      476209 475209 474210 473211 473214 472216 473218 475219
      476218 478218 478217 480217 482217 483217 485217 485217
 2.00 479241 480239 479236 478234 476233 474233 473234 473236
      474238 475240 477241 478241 479241
 2.00 472218 470216 468214 465214 465216 464217 463215 461216
      459218 457219 457222 460223 463223 465222 467225 468222
      469220 472218

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.