Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 180657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 18/1200 UTC THRU MAY 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MASS FIELD AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS STRONG CLOSED LOW FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST WY INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA IN A REGION OF WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND
STRENGTHENING EAST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS---THE GFS IS A HEAVIER OUTLIER WITH ITS QPF MAX INTO
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO---WITH THIS SOLUTION NOT FAVORED.  LATE
SEASON HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY FROM NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 2` RANGE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
DAY 1 FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SLOW MOVING UPSTREAM
CLOSED LOW.  CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS INTO THIS BOUNDARY IN A
REGION OF WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES CLOSED LOW.  THE 0000 UTC RUN OF THE ARW AND
NSSL WRF ARE SHOWING A FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR THAN MOST OF
THE OTHER GUIDANCE---AS THEY DEVELOP MORE OF A COLD POOL WITH THIS
ORGANIZING CONVECTION AND PUSH IT MORE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE---THE DAY 1 QPF AT THE
MOMENT LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION WHICH WERE SIGNIFICANT
CONTINUITY CHANGES FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS RUNS---FOCUSING
PRECIP CLOSER TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST
NORTHEASTERLY ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
TRAINING OF CELLS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IN THE 0000-1200 UTC TIME
FRAME--CONTINUING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS.

UPPER LAKES---EASTERN LAKES---NORTHERN  NY STATE INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND

AHEAD OF THE STRONG GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES CLOSED LOW---A
LEAD CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN  AS IT PUSHES FROM THE
UPPER LAKES EARLY DAY 1 INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY.  THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER CENTER AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHERN QB.  THE TRAILING FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST---SUPPORTING AT LEAST AREAL
AVERAGE MODERATE TOTALS FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NY
STATE AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES---WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS
POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION MAXIMIZES THURSDAY EVENING.  THE COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND EARLY DAY 1 MAY LINGER OVER THE UPPER
LAKES---SUPPORTING MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS FROM FAR NORTHERN WI
INTO THE U.P. OF MI.

ORAVEC


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 538202 538194 538186 535171 532167 531165 528164 525158
      522154 515145 505143 502144 499144 495145 493148 492152
      492157 487158 484157 482155 476153 471152 466153 462156
      462161 466165 472167 475171 479176 482181 485185 490189
      496190 500190 506192 509197 511203 513208 526225 530221
      533217 536211 536206 538202 538202
 0.01 522712 520694 518677 510658 508643 503634 500630 497628
      488630 484632 481629 476621 467638 464647 461661 460681
      439714 435719 431721 427728 425732 421735 418738 418742
      416747 417753 416761 415767 411775 405782 398788 394789
      389792 375794 372797 366799 362802 360805 355812 354817
      351821 346829 344834 341838 337842 332843 322844 316849
      307852 300857 300861 304863 340860 342862 339864 335867
      327872 320876 316878 311879 298880 290885 289889 291892
      293895 297897 307897 317897 326894 333889 336887 339883
      345878 349881 350889 352894 349899 336912 328917 323923
      319926 316929 312939 308947 306952 307955 309960 307963
      303968 294982 289990 282996 276005 278016 281018 287020
      291021 296023 306023 314020 329012 337006 344002 354001
      358001 360004 364006 369006 372008 375012 377023 374031
      370043 361047 357051 357058 359063 358067 356071 353073
      345076 342081 340087 342092 347092 353088 362086 366088
      369088 373088 376091 381093 385092 390091 393089 398088
      401090 404095 404100 399107 391111 381114 381119 383123
      386133 388143 392154 399161 403163 407163 411169 414174
      417174 422173 426170 429166 428163 426152 426146 425143
      419138 417133 417127 415123 412120 407117 409115 412116
      421115 440113 443113 445118 449129 451132 455131 459129
      464129 472129 478130 481132 484131 483125 478115 475106
      477102 475099 472090 467090 464092 460087 457083 453074
      451069 451062 451047 452039 451035 448023 448994 447986
      445979 442968 439957 439949 437944 432926 429918 424909
      417914 413916 409915
 0.01 409915 404892 404885 406881 409873 419834 422825 423818
      426817 428819 433824 433828 433835 434849 434857 436861
      442860 445870 447875 450877 454884 460903 465910 469913
      473912 478906 482899 489880 493871 495861 500840 503829
      504818 509797 510785 512775 516753 519732 521721 522712
 0.01 279836 279832 277830 274825 268814 266808 264802 263798
      262796 255795 249795 243797 241803 240809 238815 238822
      238826 240828 242835 255835 266838 272839 275838 277837
      279836
 0.25 528204 528202 526198 524196 523194 520191 518190 516190
      516194 517197 519201 520204 521206 524208 525209 528207
      528204
 0.25 506659 501648 497644 493644 483643 479642 476644 473649
      471655 469668 466692 462704 459717 456742 456757 455765
      454770 453777 453786 454793 456798 458804 459810 460823
      459830 457835 456840 456845 459851 463853 469862 474873
      477876 480877 483875 488866 493855 495841 497828 501800
      506774 506767 503769 502767 499762 496763 494761 495750
      497737 499723 501710 504697 505683 506659
 0.25 444096 441088 438082 440077 442076 446074 446069 443031
      440023 436017 433010 435001 436992 434986 432977 431968
      430956 430952 428948 421935 412926 408921 403917 390911
      385906 379902 376901 373902 369905 369908 369917 368926
      365934 362940 355953 354957 351960 346964 335970 328972
      320973 317973 314975 310980 306987 301990 297991 295993
      291998 290003 292006 298005 303000 307995 312991 316991
      318992 322994 326993 332991 339988 345989 361992 365999
      369000 372999 379997 385001 389007 389017 389027 389035
      385041 383044 383047 384051 386053 387057 386063 385073
      387079 392082 399081 404081 407083 412087 417090 423091
      428096 434098 444096
 0.50 497672 497665 496659 494655 491653 486650 478653 475656
      474660 473670 469689 466708 463728 462747 461758 461765
      462770 466777 469784 465802 464815 466828 467833 469837
      475840 479842 483841 489834 492825 491815 491808 490804
      486796 484785 482774 482767 480762 483755 487747 488739
      490728 492719 494710 495699 496684 497672
 0.50 442072 440059 438043 437037 435030 430022 420017 415015
      411011 410008 410003 413998 420993 423992 424987 422980
      421973 421969 419963 417959 411949 402928 398923 395920
      387915 382912 377910 373914 372920 370933 368939 365943
      360953 354962 348970 346976 346981 349985 354987 361987
      366989 369994 374995 379994 385995 390997 393001 396005
      398011 397018 394022 392036 389041 386046 388051 391056
      394068 396072 401074 408077 414076 421085 428093 431093
      433092 434085 435079 437075 442072
 1.00 485684 483678 481678 475687 473693 472699 471713 469726
      470735 472743 474741 476735 480726 482713 485699 485685
      485684
 1.00 433068 434064 435059 434051 432044 430037 428032 423028
      417026 411025 405026 401030 399037 396041 393048 395054
      403063 405064 409064 414064 418067 422072 424073 427073
      431071 433068
 1.00 400977 399969 397961 396953 396943 395937 393935 391933
      387933 381936 377939 368948 361959 357964 354971 354977
      355980 362982 373988 389990 394991 398986 400977
 1.50 430056 428046 423039 417033 412033 408034 402039 397046
      397051 400055 404058 407059 416058 420060 423063 427063
      430058 430056
 1.50 395979 395970 394963 391957 389952 391946 391943 389942
      384944 379946 373949 370953 367958 363963 359967 357972
      361976 366978 371980 375984 380986 385983 389984 392984
      394981 395979
 2.00 422051 420048 418043 413041 408041 405044 402046 400051
      402054 407055 412054 416053 420052 422051
 2.00 391975 391970 390968 387966 384967 382969 380970 377971
      377974 380974 380975 380977 384978 387979 388979 391977
      391975
 2.00 374970 374967 374965 373964 371964 370964 368965 367965
      366966 365967 364969 364970 365972 366972 368972 370972
      371972 373971 374970

$$





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