Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190957
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
555 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 19/1200 UTC THRU MAY 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


1000 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 WERE MOSTLY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THE MCV OVER CENTRAL TX.  OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE.

DAY 1

MID SECTION OF THE NATION

NEGATIVELY TILTED HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PUSHING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS LIKELY
AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN A
REGION OF WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN AXIS OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES.  WHILE THE MODEL LARGE SCALE MASS FIELDS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS DAY
1---THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE QPF SOLUTIONS.  THERE
IS---HOWEVER---AN OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR TWO MAX PRECIPITATION
AREAS. A NORTHERN MAX IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES---WHICH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF
THE EASTWARD MOVING HEIGHT FALLS AND OVER THE COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.  A SOUTHERN MAXIMUM
ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
LIE WEST TO EAST IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN TX.  THE SOUTHERN MAX
ALONG THE RED RIVER HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE GFS---CMC
GEM---0000 UTC HI RES ARW AND HI RES ARW PARALLEL.  DAY 1 QPF
FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THESE MODELS---SHOWING MAX PRECIP
TOTALS 1-2"+ ALONG THE RED RIVER OVER NORTHERN TX/SOUTHERN
OK---TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.  A SECOND MAX OVER EASTERN CO INTO
WESTERN NE AND WESTERN KS FOR MAX UPSLOPE PRECIP---WHILE LIGHT
MODERATE TOTALS EXTEND EAST OF THIS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

GREAT BASIN

IN THE WAKE OF THE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE PLAINS DAY 1---BELOW AVERAGE H5 HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN.  AN AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN FROM IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN CA/SOUTHERN
OREGON---EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NV---SOUTHERN ID AND NORTHERN UT.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH QPF DETAILS---CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER OVERALL THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD AREAL AVERAGE
MODERATE AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS DAY 1 GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE LATEST MODEL SUITE.

EASTERN SEABOARD

HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL PUSH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
REGION TUESDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  AN AXIS OF
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL STRETCH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT TOO EMPHATIC
ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS---WITH THE DAY 1 QPF
NOT DEVIATING FROM THIS GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ANY HEAVY
TOTALS MAY BE.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE SREF AND IN HOUSE
PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED MEANS FOR MAX PRECIP DEPICTION  ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND--SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC.
 MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.


DAYS 2/3...


...WEST COAST/GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES DURING DAY 2. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
CA COAST LATE ON DAY 2...THEN CROSSES SOUTHERN CA DURING DAY 3.
FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP (THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF MAY BE TOO QUICK
BRINGING THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA ON DAY 3)...SO THE WPC
QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS. SOME 00Z NAM WAS
USED TO BETTER DELINEATE HIGHER TERRAIN QPF MAXIMA.

A GENERAL LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN PRECIPTABLE WATER
VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO
AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN)...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES NEAR THE COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT FOR CONVECTION...WHICH DEVELOPS IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (DUE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES).
THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON...PEAKS IN THE
EVENING...AND ENDS SLOWLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION
PRODUCES A LARGE AREA OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS
NORTHERN CA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OR...AS WELL AS A STRIPE OVER
THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE.

A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CA COAST LATE ON
DAY 2...THEN CROSSES SOUTHERN CA DURING DAY 3. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY COVERS MUCH OF THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FUELS CONVECTION THAT IS
MAINLY TIED TO THE TERRAIN...WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH QPF AMOUNTS
PLACED OVER SOUTHERN OR...AND THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE IN CA. THIS
IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGER AREA OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF QPF COVER
MUCH OF EASTERN CA...OR...NORTHWEST NV AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ID.


...LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC RESULTS IN QPF
DURING BOTH DAYS. THE 00Z GFS LOOKS TOO DRY WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DURING DAY 2...WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS
PROBABLY A BIT TOO WET. DURING DAY 3...THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE
TOO WEAK WITH A SURFACE WAVE THAT FORMS ON THE FRONT ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST DURING DAY 3. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET OFFER THE
BEST CONSENSUS FOR QPF IN THESE AREAS...AND THIS PAIR OF MODELS
WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR THE WPC QPF.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING DAY 2. A LOW LEVEL 35 TO 45 KNOT
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR INTO
MO/SOUTHERN IA/WEST CENTRAL IL EARLY...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED
MOSTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF 0.25
TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCATIONS...WITH
AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF TO 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN IN/KY/TN/WV.

DURING DAY 3...THE FRONT BUCKLES ACROSS VA/NC AS A WAVE DEVELOPS
ON IT IN RESPONSE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE FLOW. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FEED 1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR INTO THE TIDEWATER
AREA OF VA AND COASTAL NC...WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE ITS MOVES OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST VA AND EASTERN NC...WITH LOCAL 0.75 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL TX COULD RESULT IN HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING DAY 2. A SHORT WAVE EJECTED FROM A CLOSED LOW SETTLING OVER
SOUTHERN CA ON DAY 3 WILL ATTEMPT TO FOCUS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL
TX THROUGH EASTERN NM NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE WAS A
DECENT SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TX DURING DAY 2...AND
THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET...EACH
OF WHICH SHOWED THE SIGNAL. THE THREAT FOR DAY 3 IS A BIT MORE
NEBULOUS...AS THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. FOR DAY 3...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY
ON THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF.

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL TX ON DAY 2 BECOMES
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES (WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) ON THE NOSE OF A
SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...MAINLY AFTER 21/00Z. THE
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS BETWEEN 20/00Z AND 20/06Z...COINCIDENT
WITH THE BEST MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVEL INITIALLY...WHICH BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST WITH TIME.
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF 1.00 TO 1.25
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX...WHICH HAS SEEN HEAVY
RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES
IN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS...PAST HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING 2+ INCH QPF AMOUNTS SUGGEST THAT A
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NECESSARY.

FOR DAY 3...A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CROSSES SOUTHERN CA. AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW...SHORT WAVES ARE EJECTED...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVES...A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX THROUGH EASTERN NM IN
SOUTHERN CO BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW PUMPS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN EASTERN NM. THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW THEN BECOMES ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TX
LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY INITIALLY...WHICH BACKS OFF TOWARD 22/12Z. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRODUCE A BROAD
AREA OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF ACROSS EASTERN NM...AS WELL AS
MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL TX.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS...AS INDIVIDUAL MODELS LATCH ON TO DIFFERENT
FORCING TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS. THE WPC QPF IS BELOW
THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH 2+ INCHES OF QPF ACROSS WEST AND
CENTRAL TX. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...NO SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN ASSIGNED FOR NOW. IF
THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY
RAIN PLACEMENT...A SLIGHT RISK AREA COULD BE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE
FOR THIS AREA.


ORAVEC/HAYES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 508214 507201 500198 493196 485198 476200 469203 461206
      455210 451210 448211 447208 447204 449200 453196 457193
      459187 460182 459177 455174 457167 459163 460155 461147
      459143 456140 451139 448135 447130 445119 454105 455100
      453095 453091 454088 456084 457072 456060 448039 446025
      442011 441002 442993 442986 440981 435961 433949 431941
      428931 425923 423922 419924 415927 410928 407930 402929
      396923 393921 388919 383921 378921 367919 358910 352902
      350898 351893 354886 357875 360865 363857 372844 391815
      402797 414783 417777 421773 426765 434759 438756 444754
      449748 453745 455742 464728 475726 481719 488713 491705
      494693 494689 490683 486676 480677 477677 477674 477661
      476653 475644 473636 471632 466633 461635 431653 422660
      419662 415666 408672 403673 399679 397685 395689 393696
      390707 388716 384725 379734 378739 375744 372746 368745
      366739 365733 361733 358731 354730 351731 344735 337741
      331748 327755 321762 298797 299799 298802 295804 285808
      278812 269810 265806 269802 268799 264799 260798 255799
      252801 251804 252816 254821 259822 267824 275828 283833
      288840 290843 292849 294852 294857 293864 293868 291873
      288877 288882 289890 291896 291902 293904 293908 296916
      297922 295925 293934 290942 288947 288952 290960 302974
      304984 306989 304992 298997 291002 287003 283003 275003
      271003 269001 265000 263004 260008 260013 263016 276024
      280027 285027 294028 300027 307028 312030 314029 323027
      326026 331027 341030 348037 351041 352048 354053 357055
      358059 359065 362067 365070 367075 377090 381110
 0.01 381110 376115 373125 374128 374134 382138 383147 381151
      380156 380162 381165 386168 388171 392177 399178 403186
      402193 401196 399196 394190 388185 381180 377178 373177
      370177 368180 373186 374191 375194 382200 393211 399217
      399223 396224 393227 393231 395235 398238 401240 406241
      414240 419237 426240 430239 434238 436235 438229 444226
      451225 455225 460226 469225 480219 487217 495217 502216
      508214
 0.01 354819 348814 343807 336806 333808 330810 322824 318830
      317837 318843 319853 320856 319862 320881 322885 322890
      322893 324895 327891 328888 330885 332880 332876 335867
      337862 337858 343840 346833 351826 354819
 0.01 307801 305800 303801 301801 300802 301803 303802 305802
      307801 307801
 0.25 475695 474688 470687 466691 462693 460692 460688 460682
      462678 463673 463669 462666 460661 458659 456659 449665
      442672 436679 428686 420691 414699 409707 407713 407719
      410721 415722 424720 434717 439717 444715 461708 469705
      473701 475696 475695
 0.25 443176 445163 445156 443152 439143 435138 432135 431130
      430123 432118 433113 433108 435102 437098 442091 443085
      443079 443057 439033 437019 435007 433995 431987 428977
      425973 422970 416962 413956 412949 409945 405943 398939
      393934 391930 387927 384926 380927 373934 370939 366941
      362933 358924 353916 342904 338903 337908 336919 335923
      334924 330926 325928 323931 317938 311947 310952 311955
      314962 314968 311971 309975 307979 308983 310985 314988
      318992 320996 322000 320005 318010 318016 321018 324019
      329019 332018 339018 343019 349024 362040 369047 376051
      384054 389061 391064 390068 390073 392079 396083 400082
      404084 406090 406097 405104 405109 408114 411122 416128
      418132 419138 418145 416149 413154 410159 408167 409174
      410184 411197 411219 409224 410228 412230 414229 416227
      423229 430229 431223 430218 431208 432200 434196 437190
      437184 438181 440179 443176
 0.25 368766 367761 364758 358759 352763 348769 344775 342783
      341786 342792 344794 348795 352789 355781 359776 364771
      368766
 0.25 366963 366961 365956 364954 364949 363945 361945 359945
      357945 355945 355949 355954 355958 356960 358963 361965
      364964 366963
 0.25 339769 338767 336767 334768 334769 334772 335772 337772
      337771 338769 339769
 0.25 305821 306816 304814 301813 297814 293815 290816 288817
      286818 287820 289822 292824 294826 296827 300826 302824
      303823 305821
 0.50 438088 435081 435072 438063 435054 434034 432011 428998
      424991 419987 411985 408984 406982 401975 400972 401968
      401958 399950 391940 386933 382932 378933 373940 371947
      370955 370962 373970 374974 374979 375985 376988 376992
      374993 369992 364989 362986 363983 363977 362975 358971
      352966 352958 352949 351942 357937 355930 349917 347914
      343912 341915 339919 337927 334930 330932 328934 327939
      323944 319949 318953 318957 318968 319975 322984 326992
      328997 328000 327008 327011 330013 337014 345015 350019
      359032 367035 372039 377043 384045 396046 400054 401057
      402060 404059 412059 416064 417071 415074 412074 411077
      412081 411086 412091 413101 413108 415111 419113 423113
      426112 428109 429096 438088
 0.50 422198 423195 422194 421195 421197 422198 422198
 1.00 422048 423038 423027 424017 422010 418009 414010 406008
      400006 396006 394007 379008 374012 366012 375021 377026
      380030 382032 389033 398034 403037 407042 418049 422048
 1.00 357007 355989 355981 355977 352974 349968 348964 348958
      349950 346943 346941 344939 341936 337936 333940 330947
      327954 325959 327962 330970 332980 334997 333002 335006
      337009 342010 350010 355010 357007
 1.50 352985 353981 352977 349971 347965 345958 346950 343943
      340940 336940 334943 332949 332956 332962 334969 336984
      338990 339996 338003 339006 341006 344006 349002 350996
      349989 352985
 2.00 350982 349978 347974 346969 344965 342960 337959 336965
      337971 338976 339981 340986 344988 348985 350982

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 540200 540195 537196 529196 524197 519196 511198 495199
      489200 482203 474208 466211 458211 453209 452202 456190
      462185 462156 461150 459147 455139 452132 451127 456115
      460104 458097 456088 453084 453080 451077 450070 451063
      453059 454050 453047 453039 452033 452029 451027 450022
      448008 445996 442981 437959 434947 433930 429907 425888
      422878 419867 416856 414850 414844 414836 415830 415823
      413819 412814 408806 404799 400797 397792 395788 392786
      380788 371783 363782 355781 350780 348776 344770 343767
      344763 349756 354747 358738 360733 361727 360720 357714
      355713 354710 355704 354692 351690 347689 341689 337691
      333693 329691 323697 318703 312708 307714 304718 303723
      298740 292761 289770 285774 282777 267789 249795 245804
      241813 244822 248824 254823 256820 259819 264823 268825
      274826 282827 286830 287835 289849 293873 295899 295904
      293908 297916 301926 301941 301947 299950 299960 297965
      293968 286972 281976 274979 264984 260992 258996 252997
      243993 237993 233996 234004 234009 244013 250017 268026
      277028 288030 291031 293031 297031 300034 306041 309044
      311048 314052 318054 323056 327058 337062 346066 351067
      355065 358061 362058 367058 370059 376060 380062 380070
      379074 381076 388082 394087 398090 398095 396096 393100
      393109 389112 385114 380114 378117 377121 375124 373127
      379128 384129 387126 396122 398124 398127 394132 385136
      381137 379139 384145 388150 389155 389160 387163 385168
      380175 373177 359181 361188 368194 382207 386210 392213
      399220 397223 392225 389229 391235 396238 399240 407244
 0.01 407244 417247 425246 430246 432242 435238 439237 448239
      451227 454223 457222 466220 470219 474220 484223 491229
      497237 507253 511260 514264 516259 520250 524241 532219
      540200
 0.01 527700 526692 525685 521675 517664 512655 502640 497631
      490624 483619 480618 476620 470623 467626 460634 459638
      456641 449647 443655 441663 447669 454672 462676 465679
      468684 446717 445722 445728 443737 436745 438751 442753
      467732 471741 476747 479746 482741 486732 493713 495708
      498709 504707 508708 520705 524704 527700
 0.01 479238 480236 480234 479233 479231 478230 476232 475235
      476236 477238 479239 479238
 0.01 413012 413000 410991 406984 398980 390977 380977 368985
      362990 357996 352003 352008 354011 358020 363020 366023
      382028 388033 394037 402041 404043 407043 408040 408035
      410030 411017 413012
 0.01 348842 348838 346834 343829 338826 335827 333829 328831
      328837 330844 331848 333850 333854 336856 341851 345847
      348842
 0.25 485653 483646 481643 477641 474641 469643 466647 464650
      463656 466657 471658 475659 478659 483658 485653
 0.25 452183 453175 452170 450164 449158 448155 446154 441156
      440161 441166 441175 438175 435171 432170 430173 429178
      425176 422179 421184 420186 416190 414195 413203 414210
      414216 413222 405227 400229 398232 402235 407236 419238
      423238 428235 434228 441222 442218 441215 439211 438205
      438201 439197 442192 444189 452183
 0.25 418938 417932 416923 412913 407902 404889 402883 398879
      394876 392877 386879 382883 374891 371894 365896 359901
      358899 357900 356903 357909 348910 341910 336912 331919
      325929 323935 322941 321946 318952 313960 311967 308971
      305983 303987 299992 291995 286999 283003 280008 279010
      280013 286021 290023 295023 308022 315023 321022 325021
      329017 334008 339998 344987 352966 357958 366952 378948
      385947 397950 404951 410950 416946 418938
 0.25 390199 391197 390195 390194 388193 387193 385192 383192
      381192 379194 380197 381197 382199 383200 384201 385202
      387201 388201 389200 390199
 0.25 358925 358923 357922 355921 353923 354925 354927 355928
      356927 357926 358925
 0.25 340740 340733 338729 329731 325734 324738 321747 318756
      318761 318767 318771 320774 324773 328770 334763 337756
      339746 340740
 0.25 332706 332704 331704 332706 332706
 0.25 307822 307820 305820 305821 304823 305823 307823 307822
 0.25 295815 295812 291810 285807 279805 275804 273807 271809
      268806 264805 260806 258809 258812 261813 266814 273811
      279813 286815 294817 295815
 0.50 432224 434222 433220 432219 431217 430215 429214 428213
      427213 426213 425214 424215 423217 423219 423222 422224
      423226 423227 424228 426228 428228 430226 432224 432224
 0.50 395929 395922 393917 391915 385914 382916 379920 379927
      382931 384934 387936 391934 394931 395929
 0.50 339976 340964 339959 337956 332956 330957 325963 319969
      316977 312984 307990 302995 296000 291004 288014 295017
      300017 303016 309016 312018 318018 324014 326012 328008
      333991 337982 339976

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 538199 535176 530166 528162 525160 509148 506147 503147
      501149 501150 505156 512176 515184 511194 482201 468210
      459212 455211 454208 452205 453201 453196 460188 465176
      467172 470170 474169 476169 474166 475162 475155 474149
      476134 474123 474118 472113 468105 465097 462094 457091
      448089 443088 439085 422087 420083 418080 419076 423065
      423057 424054 427053 430049 433044 432041 429037 425032
      421024 416016 412010 406003 394988 385971 382967 378964
      375962 370962 365962 360964 349967 347967 347963 348957
      349941 349935 350930 350917 348908 344897 343893 343886
      344881 345876 345871 346866 349858 359843 364835 369829
      373824 377820 383811 386807 387802 391792 388788 389784
      391773 393762 393751 394747 396743 401737 402732 402725
      402716 424685 426680 428673 427665 425661 422657 417655
      407655 401657 398658 392664 382678 376684 371691 365698
      359704 347717 338722 332728 325736 319745 312753 304757
      296762 289766 281771 275776 250798 246806 245809 247814
      249817 253819 257820 262820 268819 273820 278822 284822
      289824 292828 295834 297841 297852 295861 291882 291883
      292888 293894 292900 291905 291911 293922 291946 287956
      284963 281968 279970 276972 265974 261976 256976 246974
      241973 238976 235979 234984 232987 232993 232005 234013
      236018 239022 242028 248033 252035 257036 267037 272038
      276042 285044 295047 300055 308064 316071 320072 324074
      329075 334075 342072 345074 348078 355083 361084 365086
      370092 376096 386096 390098 391103
 0.01 391103 392105 391108 388115 386119 386123 388127 391126
      413122 417123 419126 414131 411138 412141 410145 404146
      401146 401150 398157 393160 384167 380174 376175 372174
      366173 359176 351181 346185 345191 347198 353204 357207
      359210 363211 369213 372209 372205 373202 380205 394213
      403221 406226 403227 400226 392224 387224 390230 394233
      398234 401239 405243 412245 414248 417249 421250 423248
      428246 431243 432239 437234 447229 456225 461226 465230
      470236 472239 476242 479242 481240 480233 472226 474222
      476221 482220 487221 491224 495228 503238 507243 509249
      515263 516267 518269 520262 521259 525243 530227 538199
 0.01 498258 499255 499253 499252 497252 495253 495254 494256
      495257 496258 498259 498258
 0.01 499685 497672 494660 491650 488644 482639 480636 476635
      474654 473663 473676 473687 472688 470685 467684 464685
      462690 461696 459714 460720 459724 460739 458746 458756
      461763 461771 461777 461788 461797 466816 471811 474805
      474793 475780 482767 489762 492759 494755 492744 490740
      489734 487726 487721 489717 496702 499693 499685
 0.25 479714 478704 474704 471708 469714 467720 467727 465740
      465755 465770 466774 468775 469770 470756 473743 476732
      478719 479714
 0.25 450220 448217 442217 435217 436214 436208 435198 434186
      433182 431180 427180 422181 420183 418187 416190 414188
      411187 410183 409179 407177 402178 400181 398184 401188
      405189 408192 407198 407203 415207 418210 420214 422222
      428229 431229 434226 448222 450220
 0.25 403205 404199 403193 397192 389190 382187 375184 368183
      364184 364187 370192 376196 382201 384203 388204 397206
      403205
 0.25 412066 412059 411052 407047 402042 397040 394039 394036
      396027 400028 403028 405027 406023 406018 403014 394008
      387002 379993 374989 368987 357984 352982 350978 343977
      336977 323981 314984 310986 306983 304977 304969 303966
      300965 294964 288972 281979 271983 264984 256985 250986
      246988 241990 237993 237997 238001 241004 248007 252010
      258012 261015 263017 262021 265026 270029 275030 281030
      287028 294028 298032 304039 314044 325051 337055 346058
      358061 366062 372065 381070 388071 392073 405070 410070
      412066
 0.25 396708 393691 389691 385692 380697 361718 357722 353729
      349735 344738 332748 328752 324757 318771 318775 319778
      322779 326778 331778 335776 341772 346768 348771 346774
      343779 340788 339791 341795 345795 348794 353790 357789
      361787 370778 375773 379766 384754 389725 395715 396708
 0.25 384031 382029 380028 377026 373026 370026 368028 368032
      368034 369037 373039 375039 376039 380038 382036 384033
      384031
 0.25 319890 319883 319877 319870 317864 316860 314856 312854
      309855 308861 308867 309873 310880 311886 312890 315893
      318890 319890
 0.25 270804 270802 268801 266801 265801 263801 261802 259802
      257802 256803 254804 254805 254806 255808 256809 258810
      260810 262809 263808 265807 265806 267805 269804 270804
 0.50 388199 388198 386196 385196 385195 383194 381194 380195
      381196 381197 382199 383200 384201 385201 387201 387199
      388199
 0.50 387710 387706 385705 381707 373715 367723 364727 363732
      357741 356747 360750 365753 368757 371756 374751 375745
      377741 380736 381732 382725 384720 386715 387710
 0.50 374191 376189 375188 373188 372188 373189 374191 374191
 0.50 373767 368766 369763 366762 362767 356769 352773 349778
      348785 354786 358785 361783 365779 368774 371770 373767
 0.50 362027 359011 357005 353000 344992 339990 332991 328993
      322997 318003 315005 310009 307009 304006 295002 289999
      284994 284989 284987 281987 278991 280994 278998 271007
      274014 273019 275022 281023 288023 294022 298023 300025
      303030 308032 314030 319033 322044 328047 336049 344049
      347046 351040 355033 362027
 0.50 340760 339757 336758 333759 330761 328763 327766 325768
      324771 324773 326774 329773 331772 334769 335767 337764
      338762 340760
 0.50 287985 286983 284984 284985 284986 286985 287985
 1.00 288014 288012 287011 285010 285012 285014 287015 288014

$$




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