Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 251859
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT TUE APR 25 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 26/0000 UTC THRU APR 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND

THE SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NC WILL BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DAY 1 AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND TO A POSITION SOUTH OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.  STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERN LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS CLOSED LOW IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---1 TO 2+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN--WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS FROM EASTERN NY/NORTHERN NJ---NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL GOOD MASS FIELD EVOLUTION AGREEMENT
IS LEADING TO FAIRLY GOOD QPF AGREEMENT ALSO.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS---UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER LAKES

A FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL BE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF
THE NATION DAY 1 STRETCHING ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS AMPLIFYING TROF WILL SUPPORT A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM IN THE VICINITY OF IA TUESDAY
NIGHT---NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  A COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES.
LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THIS PRECIP FROM FAR NORTHEAST SD---SOUTHEAST ND AND ACROSS
NORTHERN MN.  IN ADDITION---ACCUMULATING ICE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MN---INTO NORTHWEST WI AND THE WESTERN U.P.
OF MI.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

LOWER MO TO THE LOWER AR RIVER BASINS

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FULL LATITUDE PLAINS TROF DAY 1---SUPPORTING A
SOUTHERN PRECIP MAX ACROSS THE LOWER MO TO LOWER AR RIVER BASIN
REGIONS.  STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
POTENTIAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.  MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT---DIFFERING ONLY ON SOME OF THE HARDER TO
GAUGE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES.  DAY 1 QPF FAVORED THE IN HOUSE
HI RES MEAN AND HREF MEAN FOR QPF DETAILS---DEPICTING AREAL
AVERAGE 1"+ TOTALS FROM SOUTHEAST KS---NORTHEAST OK ACROSS MOST OF
AR...CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF IL.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES

A SERIES OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DAY 1.  CONCENTRATED UVVS ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA---NORTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF THE CASCADES.  INLAND---MODERATE
PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 529197 530189 529182 527169 524163 521158 517156 515150
      510141 503134 495128 492124 491121 491115 490111 490105
      488096 481097 479095 479091 479087 474078 470076 469078
      468083 467090 459093 455095 451095 440092 434092 428089
      425086 424091 425096 424099 422098 417089 413078 415076
      415072 416064 414059 412057 404053 400047 401037 407028
      407025 405020 402011 399000 400993 402988 412982 419990
      422992 422996 422001 424031 424037 426042 432042 437040
      442035 446025 449015 449012 446007 446004 448000 451000
      456999 459997 465991 469986 472982 475978 480967 486957
      491949 497942 504932 511910 514900 517891 520881 523871
      525845 525833 526818 526786 526780 525772 523766 522758
      519742 515730 511728 509726 508722 508714 508706 507693
      507687 506682 502673 498662 496647 493636 488631 484631
      479633 470635 464636 459636 438645 427648 423648 417649
      392657 373662 367666 361672 355679 352682 348687 343693
      340698 338703 340709 342712 340715 338720 336723 334729
      327737 321745 313751 312762 311768 315771 317775 320776
      324775 327773 333767 339763 353754 361749 367747 372747
      378752 382755 387756 392757 399756 405756 409758 412761
      413765 410768 409771 412776 416777 425770 426767 431765
      435763 438760 440756 443758 447759 451758 455756 458754
      459758 456767 452784 452792 454797 457801 463800 467798
      470797 470800 468804 466811 465817 463823 458830 458833
      457836 452839 447842 442844 412859 405863 398867 384877
      318918 311922 305926 303930 302935 301943 311957 320960
      325965 333971 339974
 0.01 339974 341980 338984 333991 331995 332000 333005 334012
      334017 337019 342025 344041 384088 389089 390084 394085
      396089 400090 404089 406094 404101 399106 393107 381115
      381119 384124 393127 395132 395139 393144 391150 387157
      385163 386165 386170 388173 391176 395175 397173 400175
      400182 402186 405190 406194 407199 406203 404205 401204
      394200 388195 383190 380187 375186 369185 368186 373193
      378201 389212 395217 401221 402224 396224 387224 379226
      377228 380233 380237 382239 388245 393251 395254 398256
      415265 420267 424270 431269 446266 458262 461262 467263
      475268 487283 503289 509288 511285 513279 516269 519263
      519259 519252 518247 515235 512229 510225 511218 515219
      517214 521213 524209 527204 528198 529197
 0.01 464124 465119 464117 462112 460114 459116 457118 453120
      451120 449121 447123 447128 449129 452131 455131 457130
      461128 463126 464124
 0.01 340093 341091 341089 340087 340085 340082 339082 338080
      338078 338077 336077 336078 335080 335082 335084 335086
      335088 335089 336091 337091 338093 338094 340093 340093
 0.01 339056 340054 338052 338051 336051 334051 332052 332053
      330054 329054 328055 328057 328058 329060 330060 332061
      334061 335061 336060 337059 338058 339056 339056
 0.01 273803 272798 268797 262797 257798 255799 254802 254806
      254812 257815 261816 264817 267814 269811 271808 273803
 0.25 513269 515258 513249 511241 509233 504221 498211 492207
      484205 478206 471208 466209 462208 459204 459195 462187
      466180 470175 473173 476174 485176 492176 494172 491154
      486154 482154 478153 468145 464144 459145 454147 448148
      442145 437143 431144 426148 420154 416161 415168 419184
      422190 426194 431196 435200 445210 444213 441213 435213
      430209 424207 424211 422217 419218 418222 416227 413229
      409232 401231 396232 395236 396239 399244 403248 411251
      419253 426254 433253 444252 454252 460252 468253 482261
      491269 498277 504281 506281 508278 512273 513269
 0.25 515835 514819 512801 511794 509786 504777 501775 497775
      491780 486788 483797 481802 478807 474818 470829 466839
      458855 448870 435885 432890 431896 429901 424905 417908
      414907 412905 413902 413900 411894 413884 411878 407875
      402876 398874 393876 389879 381886 374891 366895 353902
      335913 328917 319923 313928 310932 308937 310942 313943
      321942 327942 332943 335944 336947 335952 336958 338963
      343965 346968 351975 354978 357978 365974 371970 399942
      403936 409929 424922 430921 435924 436928 436932 433938
      430942 428947 422954 422961 423965 425969 429971 434972
      439972 447971 450974 452981 453986 457989 461988 465985
      471977 476967 479957 486940 495919 506900 510891 512880
      514856 515835
 0.25 494673 494663 491656 488648 484644 480644 473644 464646
      441658 429662 418665 411667 404670 394677 386684 379691
      370698 362707 355715 351723 345734 342739 337742 336745
      339746 345744 353739 359736 365734 373731 380731 391730
      395731 398735 402740 406744 415750 424755 430754 433751
      437746 441742 448731 450726 454723 458720 464718 467725
      468735 468743 469752 475761 480760 482756 486742 489728
      490712 490706 490698 494673
 0.25 493148 493145 492142 491140 490139 489139 488139 487141
      488144 490146 490147 491148 493148 493148
 0.25 443178 443176 443174 442172 442171 441170 439170 438170
      437170 436172 436174 436177 437177 437180 438180 440180
      442180 443178
 0.25 401213 400212 399211 398210 397208 396208 395207 394205
      393204 392204 390204 390206 390207 391208 392209 393210
      395212 396213 398214 400214 401213
 0.25 391041 392036 391031 388028 382025 379020 376015 372012
      364004 360003 357005 352007 350009 349014 350022 351029
      357031 364040 368044 370049 376053 381054 386051 389047
      391041
 0.50 505242 505239 504237 504236 503234 502233 502232 500230
      499227 497225 496226 497229 498232 499235 499236 500238
      501238 502240 503241 504242 505242 505242
 0.50 511848 511833 509820 506810 503803 501798 497796 495797
      491800 483814 470846 452875 443891 441899 441909 444921
      443927 442932 438939 436947 432957 435960 438961 452959
      457957 461959 465959 469957 472956 474952 477946 482937
      486929 494914 503898 506890 508882 510873 511863 511848
 0.50 493222 493218 491215 489212 485210 478210 474211 468212
      461212 456212 451214 445215 438216 433217 428217 423221
      423224 426227 430232 431234 429236 422235 414233 405236
      402242 408246 419249 427250 433249 443247 456246 467245
      479249 481248 482244 480239 480233 478230 472226 475224
      479223 493222
 0.50 484669 483662 481658 478655 474654 460656 453659 444664
      431672 427674 421674 413674 405677 399680 391685 386691
      377701 370707 365713 362721 364724 367725 376725 384721
      392718 398717 406735 410740 416742 425743 428744 431742
      437736 440731 441726 443722 449716 459705 472695 478690
      482684 484674 484669
 0.50 483723 483722 482721 481720 479721 479724 480726 480727
      482728 482729 482728 483725 483724 483723
 0.50 473166 474161 473158 470155 467152 464152 460156 457160
      453161 448163 448169 449175 447180 444183 441188 442195
      444201 447202 451198 457189 463181 462174 465170 470168
      473166
 0.50 453230 452229 451229 449229 448229 447230 445230 444230
      445231 447232 448232 450232 452231 453230
 0.50 405887 404882 400882 394884 383889 360902 348909 338915
      317928 314930 314933 321936 334934 339938 342939 343943
      341948 340956 345961 352963 353971 355973 359972 370965
      379958 389949 396940 400932 398924 398919 399915 399910
      402896 405887
 0.50 383042 385033 384030 380029 377026 372022 365023 364030
      366035 369041 372045 377049 381048 383042
 1.00 506864 506854 505843 504834 503829 500823 498821 495821
      490824 487828 482840 477849 469858 464868 461874 457878
      455883 453888 450903 449910 450916 457926 457930 460933
      466930 469926 476920 486914 492905 498895 501889 503884
      505872 506864
 1.00 462681 461676 458673 452671 444675 438680 431685 423688
      414689 408691 407694 408696 411700 411709 411714 409719
      409725 411730 414732 417731 423726 428719 434715 444711
      448706 454698 458692 461685 462681
 1.00 462220 456218 451217 443218 438219 433220 427220 425223
      430227 437229 442228 448226 451225 457222 460222 462220
 1.00 456239 451236 447236 439237 431239 427240 423239 415236
      411238 413243 420244 426245 429244 437243 445241 453240
      456239
 1.00 394899 395895 394891 391890 383895 375900 367903 358908
      350912 341916 337919 337923 343931 345934 350936 350941
      348946 348951 350954 359959 361964 365963 374957 380952
      386945 389940 391936 387931 387926 390915 394899
 1.50 499863 498850 497842 495839 491839 488845 484851 480856
      475860 472865 464876 458888 457895 458900 462904 468906
      474905 478904 483900 492891 496884 498878 499863
 1.50 450689 447685 442687 438691 433694 427698 424703 423706
      424710 431708 438706 443703 447697 450692 450689
 1.50 446223 446221 445220 443220 441221 440221 438221 436222
      434222 432222 434224 435224 436225 437226 438226 439225
      441224 442225 443225 444224 446224 446223
 1.50 387904 387901 385901 382902 376905 363912 356916 352919
      349923 350927 355931 359932 359936 354941 352944 352948
      359949 362951 367951 366958 371956 376952 381946 382943
      382940 384922 385910 387904
 2.00 485879 484877 483877 481878 480879 480880 479882 480883
      481883 483882 485881 485879
 2.00 381929 380927 377929 373932 370936 367938 364941 362945
      366946 370944 375945 377938 378934 380930 381929

$$




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