Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 260701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 26/1200 UTC THRU MAR 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN THE EAST COAST...

A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S...ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT SWEEPING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND MORE SLOWLY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND
APPALACHIAN STATES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND...IN SOME CASES LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...SHOULD EXCEED A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM DETROIT TO FORT WORTH TO DEL RIO . SWATHS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD TEND TO FALL OUT ALONG THREE
CORRIDORS. FOR SEVERAL RUNS THE MODELS HAVE PRODUCED A SWATH OF
HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS INCH LIQUID EXTENDING FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION IN KY ALONG A ZONE OF UPPER JET ENHANCED LIFT TO OCCUR
UP THROUGH WESTERN PA AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT STILL WITH MUCH OF THIS REGION RECEIVING A HALF INCH OF
LIQUID...GIVE OR TAKE ONE OR TWO TENTHS DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WE
BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF AND OUR
IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE. THE PRIMARY EFFECT WAS TO CUT BACK ON AMOUNTS
OVER CENTRAL MAINE AND DOWN EAST MAINE. THAT AREA COULD BE AT A
RELATIVE MINIMUM...ALONG THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AXIS.

THE SECOND SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
SECONDARY / DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT INDUCED TO THE EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS AS MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR. THIS ZONE OF
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIGHT
UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD SOUTHERN MD
AND ON INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ALL OF THE 00Z HI-RES MODELS PRODUCE A ZONE OF 1
INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN CT/MA AND MUCH OF RI.
WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT...THIS COULD PRESENT SOME FLOODING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS. SEE THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DISCUSSION FOR MORE.


...GULF COAST STATES...

THE THIRD SWATH IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM NEAR HOUSTON
TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. A PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO SURGE TOWARD SOUTHERN LA THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT OWING TO BOTH WARM ADVECTION AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MARKED AND DEEP FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE MODELS KEEP AVERAGE PRECIPITATION MODEST AT MORE THAN 50 MILES
FROM THE COAST...PERHAPS OWING TO A REGION OF POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS TO NEAR
2 INCHES COULD OCCUR IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA...HOWEVER.

...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

MODELS HELD FAIRLY STEAD WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...SOME RAIN AND
SOME SNOW TO OCCUR IN THE WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES ON THE BACK OF
THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. WE BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE 00Z NAM...BUT NOT THE GFS WHICH WAS FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST THAN CONSENSUS.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 537207 539197 535191 532186 529179 523166 515156 513150
      511147 508146 504147 500146 498143 493139 489133 485128
      480126 473125 470125 469130 470137 473143 473145 467142
      461143 462148 468160 471166 477167 482172 486177 490178
      492177 496182 501196 506198 510203 517214 522219 528222
      531224 534218 537207
 0.01 519274 521266 522258 519249 514240 510231 506221 502214
      498208 492209 489211 488216 490221 492231 493235 496241
      496244 493244 490241 486241 481249 480257 481262 485271
      489281 491284 494288 497292 500292 508293 514286 518276
      519274
 0.01 539035 540028 538024 533019 530015 527014 521010 515009
      512010 506010 497009 490007 481006 477006 473004 461003
      451001 444996 440990 437983 430967 426961 421956 413952
      407947 396937 391931 388923 384916 379911 376909 372908
      368907 368905 370903 374899 380895 393867 398862 403855
      408848 413842 421830 425823 429815 435802 437799 440798
      439803 438806 435810 435814 432823 433835 433840 435842
      440848 445856 446860 450862 452860 455862 457865 460874
      462882 461886 461892 461898 463903 470903 476897 483887
      486879 488867 489859 487849 485843 486837 489827 487800
      475773 470772 471768 473758 475737 477727 477722 477717
      479696 482687 486684 488680 489676 489670 485663 484657
      484651 482639 478633 472629 457632 443636 435638 425642
      415652 402663 395669 391675 372700 352718 343721 336725
      323734 318739 313745 304758 299763 294764 290763 281764
      276766 273768 267769 260774 262778 266782 269787 267791
      261795 259792 256791 250794 244798 242800 243807 255815
      268822 271824 269828 266834 260837 255842 252848 252850
      252855 260866 262871 261876 259882 255890 255892 258894
      259905 258913 257923 254929 250934 245938 240942 236949
      235952 234958 234967 233974 232983 232991 230997 230001
      230005 232007 238009 244010 248014 249016 252018 258021
      261023 268024 272021 277017 286012 289010 290008 290999
      291992 292985 293977 296972 303964 310954 315943 316937
      322933 328932 330931 334931 347928 354921 356918 359918
      361924 362930 366936 369940 372946 374952 377957 383965
      389970 394975 397977 398980 402985 405991 408998 412004
      420015 423020 428025 430030 431037 440046 446049 453050
      464044 465042 468039 470041 472039 476036 474032 476030
      478030 487038 493042 495044 496046 495048 493053 495056
      498057 503060 507060 510059 514062 518070 522074 526081
      530087 532085 537066 537054 536045 535042 537039 539035
 0.01 509164 510162 508159 507157 502153 498149 491148 488147
      487144 483141 480140 478142 476144 478149 479152 482153
      485156 490160 493162 496163 503164 509164
 0.01 455113 452112 449107 451102 453100 450095 447094 444096
      442101 442106 447109 448114 452115 455113 455113
 0.01 450078 449077 448075 447072 446072 445072 443070 441069
      440071 438071 438072 439072 441072 443074 444075 446077
      448078 449078 450078
 0.01 439878 436878 433876 425876 419872 414865 410861 407864
      411873 414877 420881 428881 432883 434881 437880 439878
 0.25 530213 532203 531194 530189 526182 523176 521175 520177
      517183 514187 515194 517201 519207 523211 529214 530213
 0.25 518268 518258 516251 510238 505232 500229 498230 496234
      498240 502246 502254 499255 494250 489247 487249 486254
      487263 489270 491277 494283 497285 501286 507285 515276
      518268
 0.25 467651 465642 460642 450642 442643 435645 424653 416663
      409672 403680 395689 384695 378705 368713 358721 348728
      339734 328740 324743 321746 307764 303769 298771 293772
      290774 288777 286790 286797 285804 277801 273799 268800
      264804 265808 268809 278812 285810 291807 294805 298804
      301807 293814 293828 291833 288837 278844 274848 271853
      268857 269865 263893 262908 263925 259935 252943 244950
      245957 246962 248969 248977 251982 255983 258981 261978
      264974 268970 273970 279968 283962 294958 299956 301951
      303946 305939 307922 308915 313911 317909 320904 320899
      316898 312898 308895 306892 307887 309880 311875 316873
      318876 323881 327885 330887 334885 338880 342877 347875
      351872 355868 358868 369863 373863 378862 383859 388854
      395846 403836 410826 416816 423806 433784 439774 445763
      447757 450749 454735 457723 461711 462696 464682 466665
      467651
 0.25 402778 401775 399773 394768 391768 389771 386777 363785
      356798 354801 349800 345798 339795 335795 334800 333804
      333811 321838 322843 323848 323853 327855 334856 338856
      340854 345848 347845 346842 343837 339830 340821 343814
      353804 373811 377806 382800 388797 393792 399785 402778
 0.25 328796 328792 326791 321793 317798 313803 309806 307809
      308812 313813 316819 321816 324810 326805 328799 328796
 0.25 276985 275983 275982 274980 273979 272978 271980 272982
      273984 274984 275986 276985
 0.25 255000 256998 256996 255995 254994 253993 252992 251991
      250992 249992 248993 246992 244991 244992 244994 244995
      245996 245998 246998 247999 248000 249001 251002 253001
      255000 255000
 0.50 517267 517260 515254 511244 508239 505237 503237 501240
      502243 504249 504256 503260 501260 497257 494253 491251
      489254 489261 490267 492272 495278 499282 505282 508279
      512276 515272 517267
 0.50 451657 451652 450647 445645 438647 433651 429654 426659
      421670 417683 413694 408706 405717 402729 398735 392738
      388740 384744 381748 382755 387753 392750 401741 411735
      415732 419729 419731 418737 417745 419752 418758 415762
      416769 414776 413781 410787 407790 388804 387810 390809
      394807 396807 397812 395819 393823 396825 400820 407813
      414805 421795 426784 433773 438763 442752 445747 447739
      449728 452713 452703 450700 444700 441700 440697 444685
      446673 449664 451657
 0.50 376724 377719 375717 368718 360725 342737 325749 320752
      315757 310765 308771 305776 302780 301785 300791 299795
      301799 304800 310798 315794 318790 323786 327784 334783
      341783 352779 372768 372738 376724
 0.50 315851 313845 311841 308841 303839 297841 290843 284846
      279848 275853 273858 272862 273867 268879 265892 264901
      265909 266917 266927 265935 264941 266956 276963 286957
      292956 297952 300947 301939 302922 302904 301895 301886
      302879 305872 306867 310862 313856 315851
 0.50 273805 273803 272802 270803 269804 269806 271807 272806
      273805
 0.50 260968 261966 261964 260962 259960 258960 257959 257960
      255962 255964 255965 256966 257968 259969 260968
 1.00 514266 514261 514258 513255 512252 511249 508246 507244
      505247 506251 506255 507258 507264 507266 508270 511271
      513268 514266
 1.00 506274 506273 506271 505269 504268 503267 502265 500264
      499263 497262 496261 495262 494264 495267 496270 497272
      498273 499275 500276 502277 503276 504276 506274 506274
 1.00 445654 443651 439651 435654 433657 432665 430673 428683
      425690 425694 429693 434686 436681 439673 442664 445656
      445654
 1.00 419709 419707 416708 414710 413713 412716 411718 410723
      413722 415720 417717 417714 418712 419709
 1.00 355741 352740 344742 340747 337754 336757 332757 328757
      319760 316764 313771 310776 309783 308787 305792 306794
      310791 319782 327773 331767 335763 340758 346755 350751
      354745 355741
 1.00 300859 301852 300850 297850 287853 283854 279858 277867
      272877 270886 267897 267902 268907 272917 271927 271934
      273939 279945 281948 285950 286943 288941 293939 294933
      295922 297910 297897 296884 296878 297874 300859
 1.50 511262 511260 511259 510257 510256 509254 509253 508254
      508256 508257 509259 509260 510262 511263 511262
 1.50 440655 439655 438656 437658 438660 439658 440657 440655
 1.50 292870 291862 290860 288858 284860 282865 276875 274880
      272886 270900 274904 278904 280906 280911 279919 279923
      281925 287925 289922 290919 291912 292905 290899 290883
      291876 292870
 2.00 283887 285883 283879 281878 278879 276882 274884 274886
      274888 275892 274894 273897 273899 275898 277896 279894
      280892 282889 283887

$$




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