Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 250653
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 25/1200 UTC THRU JUL 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

FLORIDA

THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT HAS BEEN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DAY 1 ACROSS NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THIS SHOULD FOCUS THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS.  ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX FROM WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS---FOCUSING ON
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FROM TAMPA SOUTHWARD.  THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR A MAX AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DAY 1---BUT MORE SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO QPF AMOUNTS INLAND ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA.  DAY 1 QPF IS DEPICTING HEAVY TOTALS FOR SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA---WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA.

LOWER LAKES INTO NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD DAY 1 FROM
THE UPPER LAKES TO THE LOWER LAKES.  AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES IN A REGION OF FAIRLY WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SHOWERS PUSHING FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO NORTHERN NY STATE AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT SHOULD
BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.  THE
DAY 1 QPF DID NOT DEVIATE FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF MODERATE
TOTALS IN THE .10-.25"+ RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MO VALLEY DAY 1. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH DETAILS
OF THE MAX QPF AXIS AS THERE IS A WIDESPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN AXIS THAT WAS SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS AND SEVERAL OF THE HI RES MODELS---DEPICTING A MAX AXIS
FROM EASTERN NE---SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KS--NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL MO AND TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IL.  WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES/ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVES---ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE CONVECTION DOES ORGANIZE.  FARTHER TO THE NORTH---A SEPARATE
STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MO VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A SECOND QPF AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL
TO EASTERN SD.  SIMILAR TO THE QPF AXIS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH---CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH PLACEMENT GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD
AND UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW ANY FARTHER SOUTH ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL
AFFECT THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

SOUTHWEST/SOUTHWEST TX

SCATTERED MONSOONAL CONVECTION WILL AGAIN AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHWEST TX DAY 1 AS HIGH PW VALUES PERSIST ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER HIGH OVER NW
MEXICO--EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.01 536210 538190 539180 539172 536158 535152 532146 526137
      520135 517138 508142 502141 497138 491136 486138 484143
      483153 475159 474167 475172 478178 479184 479193 478198
      476200 473206 469207 460212 441219 441223 437226 430233
      427239 428246 434247 438245 446238 450236 454233 462227
      471223 480221 486220 491225 493231 495237 492241 488239
      485243 485248 486256 488262 493273 495278 501282 505285
      510287 514285 517278 519272 522262 518249 519244 520242
      523237 526233 530227 536210
 0.01 536778 532772 532764 532756 532752 529749 526747 525743
      526735 525726 524718 522712 518703 515701 511700 500702
      495702 492702 483699 475695 468691 460689 453688 446690
      439696 433698 429701 423707 418716 415726 414733 415736
      416747 412755 410759 411765 410770 411778 412791 411801
      409815 406827 405838 403843 400848 395853 389862 385869
      378875 370880 367885 365889 365896 366901 366904 363905
      360905 354907 349908 341908 336906 331906 327904 319900
      314892 315888 316883 316872 321864 325857 338856 345853
      352846 362830 371813 374804 376801 370801 358810 355814
      353818 349826 346829 342832 341834 338836 332837 327836
      324832 318824 317820 317815 319810 319803 319797 319790
      318785 314781 300772 297773 292776 281777 263776 257781
      252788 247794 245803 243823 241832 242846 251865 261878
      272894 281908 293920 298927 301929 305928 310933 312930
      314925 314921 317920 321922 330924 372925 374927 375930
      376936 380946 380953 378958 377963 374966 368974 364983
      363994 360003 352020 353025 353032 360034 359058 366063
      373061 379058 381054 383049 383042 384036 382030 382027
      384024 387022 395018 398015 402013 412998 413996 418996
      425002 433021 443040 446048 448047 450047 453049 462047
      465043 469040 473030 478022 481014 480008 480002 479994
      476992 471986 465981 462976 461974 461970 461961 460956
      455949 450947 445946 437940 433930 430927 429923 426919
      422916 415917 413918 412917 411912 411905 412901 415889
      417876 420864 421859 424854 435840
 0.01 435840 447839 451837 457836 469834 473831 477830 487824
      498822 510821 521819 527818 529817 530814 531807 533800
      534787 536778
 0.01 507219 507216 507214 506211 506208 507206 507203 505201
      504202 504203 502204 502207 502209 501212 502214 503215
      504216 504218 505219 507219
 0.01 226052 231061 237068 242075 248083 255090 262097 270102
      278107 294120 298122 301118 306110 312105 311091 310087
      307082 305078 303076 304072 313069 317067 320068 320071
      322080 326090 329094 334097 338098 342095 349089 356082
      354073 353066 351061 348056 346054 339053 334051 328049
      323048 318047 313043 308036 297031 294029 292031 288028
      282024 274017 271013 267011 263008 258009 253011 249012
      238015 228027
 0.01 305055 303051 298046 295042 291038 288039 284037 280036
      275040 275044 278046 283049 287053 292054 296056 299056
      303057 305055
 0.25 530205 528193 525187 522182 516174 509165 506161 502159
      497160 493162 490166 490173 491176 494178 498180 506187
      510191 513194 520203 523206 528206 530205
 0.25 526770 526764 524762 519760 515756 512749 509742 507733
      505726 500723 487722 482721 478719 469710 464706 459706
      452707 444710 440712 438716 439721 439726 440731 442737
      442746 442752 446759 447767 447774 449782 449788 453792
      456793 458796 463797 488793 493792 500788 510782 520776
      526770
 0.25 502267 502265 502264 501261 499260 499261 499263 499264
      500265 501267 502267 502267
 0.25 450988 450978 448969 445964 441962 436964 432968 430971
      427972 417962 414956 414952 412947 408931 406922 404913
      403892 402889 399887 392888 376891 372895 372900 373905
      377920 380929 382935 385943 387952 392967 398981 402980
      404978 406977 408980 421986 426990 431992 434991 436994
      439002 443005 447001 450988
 0.25 303819 301812 298807 295803 291799 284791 279788 274786
      270786 267787 262790 257793 253797 250802 249808 249814
      250822 253834 258846 269868 275878 278883 282886 287885
      290878 291864 290856 288849 288842 288839 290841 296849
      298851 301851 303846 303830 303819
 0.25 296088 295084 294080 289075 277068 266059 261054 256050
      250046 246045 242046 239047 238052 239059 242067 246072
      250078 255083 260087 267091 281096 286096 289095 295090
      296088
 0.50 508768 501750 496744 493741 490739 482739 476735 467722
      460721 455722 453725 459746 464762 472763 476765 476767
      485780 488782 492783 495781 499778 504774 508768
 0.50 441985 442983 441981 440978 438978 437980 436981 436983
      438985 440985 441985 441985
 0.50 407954 406945 403938 400929 397922 395913 397910 399911
      400907 399903 397894 393894 390895 386896 381895 379895
      376897 375901 376907 379914 380925 383931 386938 389947
      395950 396961 398969 403963 407956 407954
 0.50 298830 299823 298816 293809 289806 284809 282809 282805
      280800 273795 268795 262796 256801 252805 251810 252819
      255830 260838 265845 274863 277866 280866 282864 283852
      282838 282833 283827 284822 287820 291830 293834 296835
      298830
 0.50 286085 281079 274075 267070 260065 253059 250058 248062
      251071 256078 263082 273085 282086 286085
 1.00 391927 391922 391919 390915 389913 387910 385908 383907
      382908 381911 381916 382920 383922 385925 387927 389928
      391927
 1.00 276828 276817 275814 271812 265809 258808 254809 254814
      256822 260829 264835 268840 271842 275840 276832 276828
 1.50 386913 385913 384911 383913 384914 385915 386913
 1.50 273830 273824 272818 270814 266813 262811 258811 257813
      257820 258824 261827 263831 266834 270836 272832 273830
 2.00 269829 270824 270820 268817 266815 264814 262813 260814
      259817 259821 261825 263827 264829 267830 269829

$$




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