Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 161820
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 17/0000 UTC THRU OCT 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A STRONG JET STEAK OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL DRIFT SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE JET MAX CROSSING VANCOUVER ISLAND
EARLY TUE AND THEN INTO NORTHERN WA DURING THE DAY TUE. INCREASING
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WA
OLYMPICS AND CASCADE RANGES. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF 1-1.25" PWs
AND STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC TO THE WA COAST. WITH THE 850 MB JET FORECAST TO
PEAK NEAR 50 KT...850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES DURING THIS
TIME ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...TO GO ALONG WITH THE PW ANOMALIES AROUND +2.  THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEADS TO 2 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS. RAIN RATES IN THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES TAPER LAYER TUE
AFTERNOON AS THE PEAK JET AND UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE
COUPLET MOVES INLAND INTO EASTERN WA/ID BORDER. WPC QPF USED A
BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

...COASTAL GA/FLORIDA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLACES THE
UPPER JET MAXIMA ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND GA/CAROLINAS.  UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAXIMA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST FL LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS FL...PROVIDING AN
INITIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY
(MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG). POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOWERS DEVELOP DUE
TO WEAK BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
MAXIMA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL FROM AROUND MELBOURNE TO
JACKSONVILLE. MODEST CAPE VALUES REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY
TUE...WITH LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST IN GFS SOUNDINGS NEAR
90 PERCENT TUE SHOWING HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN.

UTILIZING A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH THE QPF...WITH THE BULK OF THE
WEIGHT COMPRISING THE HIGH-RES CAMS AREAL-AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.75-1.50" IN NORTHEAST FL. SPOTTY
2-3+" TOTALS ARE LIKELY HOWEVER PER THE HIGH-RES WRFs.

PETERSEN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 555873 556863 555854 552842 549835 546830 543825 545817
      548814 551808 550793 547778 543761 538748 534738 521718
      516709 512698 505685 502681 498683 491692 484699 480703
      476707 473712 473720 473726 472733 471739 468744 467750
      469755 472761 476767 480777 481781 481784 479789 480797
      481803 486818 490830 493836 493843 497858 497865 500873
      504883 508885 513885 515883 518884 521887 524895 524905
      526910 529915 533918 537918 541917 544912 550900 553887
      555873
 0.01 534230 536223 537213 537206 540201 542193 544186 544179
      543176 544163 544155 544144 541131 538123 534125 530129
      527131 524130 519130 515135 512140 509144 502144 497141
      487131 481128 478128 474130 471136 473139 476140 477143
      476146 469147 464146 464149 463158 465164 465170 461173
      458178 456184 463186 467182 471177 475177 478180 475184
      480186 483185 487186 488193 484198 479199 470205 461209
      449214 445217 442222 443229 442239 443253 443262 442272
      439290 439295 439299 441304 448306 452305 456302 459299
      461302 460306 461311 464315 470318 475316 483310 491302
      499291 505287 509286 514286
 0.01 462802 461787 460773 456773 453776 451787 448797 446801
      443804 440806 438811 439815 442818 446817 449812 452810
      455813 458813 460808 462802
 0.01 445732 445730 444729 443728 442727 441727 440728 441730
      441731 443732 443733 445732 445732
 0.01 389709 388705 386702 384701 379702 375703 373706 367707
      352717 338724 336726 334724 335717 334715 331715 324717
      319722 315722 313723 307729 303735 299740 297747 294753
      289757 281769 275784 269788 260790 255793 250796 244801
      241806 249820 246821 243820 239821 238825 236832 236839
      245851 251855 253858 254863 253870 253880 254889 257894
      256902 256912 259920 263921 268921 271916 274909 278895
      280887 282878 285871 288864 290856 292849 299838 303831
      308826 317814 326803 333792 351769 359756 362751 366746
      374732 379726 383720 387714 389709
 0.01 257775 257773 256771 256770 254770 253771 252772 252773
      251775 250776 249778 249780 249782 250783 252782 253780
      254779 255778 256777 256776 257775
 0.25 536201 536195 536190 535179 531160 530156 527154 520155
      513155 507157 501157 497158 493160 491161 487160 483160
      480163 483170 486173 490174 493176 495179 501185 505190
      509197 514202 518209 524211 531210 536201
 0.25 527251 523248 520243 516230 513224 510220 503211 500206
      495203 488202 483203 474206 465212 458217 455221 458227
      457231 454236 453241 454244 456251 460253 463254 464258
      467271 471299 475302 479301 486292 492282 496279 501277
      509276 518277
 0.25 536816 535807 535798 534788 533781 531774 529769 523757
      519749 516743 515733 513726 511721 509720 505720 500723
      495731 494738 496745 499750 501756 501766 503773 510801
      513805 516808 522815 520820 519825 520830 520835 522839
      529847 531847 533845 535840 535832 534827 536816
 0.25 484230 484227 484226 483224 482224 481223 479223 478222
      476222 475222 474223 472224 472225 471226 472227 473228
      475229 477229 478229 480230 481230 483231 484230
 0.25 339742 339738 337736 332735 327735 323733 319730 315731
      314734 308743 297760 286779 280788 273794 267797 260799
      255801 252805 252811 256814 263819 271826 268829 260831
      256834 258838 262841 266841 271841 276842 279848 277855
      270862 266871 264877 263883 264897 266901 269896 272886
      274873 275868 277861 282858 282852 283850 285845 286833
      287829 290827 296829 301826 304823 310816 311810 308805
      311800 313794 314788 316784 321776 332754 336748 339742
 0.50 524259 518246 515238 512228 495206 487204 482204 475207
      470211 461218 458220 460224 465226 470222 476220 481222
      487226 490233 489237 488234 484234 480232 475230 473231
      466233 462236 458237 459240 463246 468247 471252 476268
      478276 478285 480288 482283 485276 490273 496272 509270
      517271 522267
 0.50 531192 531187 530181 529167 528164 523161 519159 513159
      510162 506163 502162 499165 498168 498172 500176 506184
      512189 519196 526197 531192
 0.50 501251 501250 500248 500247 499245 498244 498245 498246
      498247 499250 500251 500252 501251
 0.50 333745 332743 328742 322743 322740 318736 313745 310750
      305754 295772 283790 277797 275799 275803 279807 282810
      284815 290818 294818 297817 298818 299822 301822 305818
      306816 304814 302811 303806 306801 308795 311785 317774
      322767 324761 327755 333745
 0.50 271886 271884 271882 271880 271878 270877 268878 267880
      267881 266882 266884 266886 266888 266890 266892 267894
      269892 270890 270888 271887 271886
 1.00 515259 515251 513244 509230 506225 503220 496210 485207
      479208 474211 473217 478218 488223 491229 494235 497241
      501245 505249 507256 508259 510261 515259
 1.00 522178 523171 523167 521165 518163 516163 514166 512168
      507168 504165 503167 505171 507175 510179 514181 518180
      522178
 1.00 500266 500262 499258 494251 492243 487238 481236 479234
      474232 472234 470237 470241 476247 480253 486258 490259
      492262 498267 500266
 1.00 316761 315758 313760 310765 305764 301768 295779 291789
      285799 284806 286812 291814 296811 301801 303796 304789
      305782 308777 311773 314766 316761
 1.50 511252 510246 509240 507234 504229 501225 499219 497215
      493211 487209 482209 478210 475214 485219 490221 492227
      496237 503245 506249 507252 510252 511252
 1.50 496262 496257 495255 494252 492249 492245 490243 488241
      485240 485242 485245 486249 488252 490255 491257 493259
      495262 496262
 1.50 482245 481242 481239 480238 479236 478234 476234 474234
      473234 473236 473239 473240 474242 475243 476244 478245
      479246 481247 482245
 1.50 301794 300785 300781 299777 296784 294788 292795 289799
      287806 288810 289812 293811 296807 298802 300796 301794
 2.00 507245 505237 502230 498222 494216 488211 484210 480211
      477213 480216 488219 491221 493225 495233 497237 500240
      505244 507245
 2.00 495257 495256 493254 493253 492251 492250 491248 491247
      490245 490244 488243 487242 486243 486245 487246 488247
      489249 489250 490252 490253 491255 492255 493257 494258
      495257
 2.00 480241 480239 479237 478235 477235 476236 474237 474239
      475240 476242 478243 480241
 2.00 296800 297798 296796 295795 294796 294797 292799 291801
      290802 290803 289806 289807 289808 290810 291810 293809
      294807 294806 295805 296803 296802 296800

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