Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 170701
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 17/1200 UTC THRU JUL 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

AS OF 06Z A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SD/MN/IA. OVERALL A SLIGHTLY SOUTH SHIFTED
PARALLEL HRRR AND THE 0Z HIGH RES ARW APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE THE BEST. THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A
GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OF CONVECTION AFTER 12Z. GIVEN THE
WEAKENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM AND A DECREASING
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AS THE FORCING LIFTS NORTH...THIS WEAKENING MAKES
SENSE. OVERALL FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS OF THE 0Z ARW AND 04Z PARALLEL
HRRR TO HANDLE QPF THIS MORNING...WITH A LINE TO CONVECTION
STRETCHING FROM WI SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IA. KEPT AREAL
AVERAGED QPF BELOW AN INCH AFTER 12Z GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING
OF THE LINE AND ALSO INCREASED FORWARD SPEED.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
THE FRONT TIGHTENS UP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM MI SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO IN/IL/IA. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEVELOPING
JET...SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTION. GIVEN OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WILL
LIKELY HAVE AT LEAST A COUPLE BOUNDARIES THAT COULD ACT AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS IA/IL/IN.
THEN OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A
LARGE COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED
FRONT...INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING. COMBINE THIS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 2"...AND A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT COULD DEVELOP. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...DUE IN PART TO OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION AND EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION INITIATES THIS AFTERNOON.
IN GENERAL ALL THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE ARE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE...WITH THE 0Z ARW BEING THE FURTHEST SOUTH. THE 0Z
ESRL HRRR (WHICH RUNS OUT 36 HOURS) IS ACTUALLY THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE AXIS. FOR NOW OPTED TO CUT THE DIFFERENCE...AND GO WITH A
SOLUTION GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE ARW AND ESRL HRRR...WHICH ENDS
UP BEING PRETTY CLOSE TO THE NMMB. THIS ENDS UP SOUTH OF THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
THIS MORNING...GOING SOUTH MAKES SENSE.

THE HIGH RES CONSENSUS IS FOR LESS QPF FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MI.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY PROGRESSIVE...AND THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH VERY WELL COULD INTERRUPT MOISTURE INFLOW
FURTHER NORTH. THUS WPC QPF UNDERCUTS MOST OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AND RESEMBLES SOMETHING CLOSER TO A HIGH RES CONSENSUS.


...CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST...

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AGAIN SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS SOUTH INTO GA...THE
GULF COAST AND FL.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2"
SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY IN STORMS. HOWEVER
NOT MUCH OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTION...WITH
GENERALLY PULSE STORMS EXPECTED. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE 0Z ARW/NSSL WRF AND ESRL HRRR FOR QPF.

A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF/GFS ALONG WITH THE ARW/NSSL WRF
AND HRRR. GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINE...CLOSER TO
THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE LIFTING WAVE.

...WEST...

AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
US UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ/NM TODAY. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY COULD HELP FOCUS
CONVECTION. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A LACK OF
INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY ONLY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF AZ/NM. WPC QPF IS GENERALLY CLOSE TO A MULTI MODEL
BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE.

A GROWING SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN NE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. GIVEN THE
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGH RES MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED QPF ACROSS THIS AREA.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WA...WITH ANOTHER FAVORED AXIS POSSIBLY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OR
INTO WESTERN MT. AGAIN MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH
WPC FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM AND ALSO THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE.

CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 547830 547825 545822 542818 537810 530806 522802 506799
      502798 497797 492797 488798 480801 471802 467803 463802
      465791 468771 469764 469757 468749 465746 460743 455744
      446745 438748 431755 428759 426766 423777 421786 419792
      419797 414814 408828 403835 397842 385854 373871 371876
      372882 375891 379900 387906 392913 397923 400930 402940
      403946 401951 396959 393963 392966 390971 390976 392986
      395993 396999 390001 387004 384008 384015 386020 387025
      390027 392029 391031 387031 391039 394039 395037 398033
      404035 408038 410041 411047 413051 416053 421054 425056
      428058 432060 438065 440074 445072 447069 447065 444058
      442055 444051 447047 449041 448036 446031 443028 439026
      429023 427020 424014 420006 415997 414994 415990 416986
      419976 426957 428948 429935 431929 435923 441913 447911
      451909 464920 468924 467929 468943 474967 475972 475978
      475989 477996 478999 482997 484994 485991 487992 487998
      490008 494025 497039 499054 503078 504083 503086 502085
      499082 493081 489088 484101 479118 472135 465155 460165
      456173 449182 443193 441197 439203 440208 445210 450210
      453207 455203 454198 459188 465178 473163 480144 483139
      485142 489150 495156 498163 501170 502171 503168 504165
      506166 511169 517175 520180 523183 527184 530180 531167
      531157 531142 528130 527118 524107 522096 523083 522079
      522073 520051 519033 516020 515014 515006 515993 514984
      514974 514965 515960 519947 520942 521935 526915 526910
      528906 531896 537877 542858 545852 546847 546843 546834
      547830
 0.01 523259 525247 524243 525237 523221 518206 513197 508190
      504185 500180 495176 490177 486180 482184 480193 477194
      475196 474202 471203 469207 464210 461211 459214 459220
      460223 469221 474219 482220 487220 491223 494230 496237
      498244 498246 495245 490245 491253 490258 491261 495266
      499272 503274 505273 507271 508266 509264 512265 516268
      519265 523259
 0.01 486663 485657 484655 480649 476646 473644 468641 462639
      457639 453641 450648 448655 445668 443674 440680 434690
      431696 425700 421702 417706 414712 413720 412727 413732
      416734 419733 425730 430730 436730 443728 449724 456717
      464707 471698 477686 482676 485669 486663
 0.01 480241 481239 481236 481234 481231 480230 478229 476230
      475232 474234 473237 474238 475240 477241 478241 480242
      480241
 0.01 451217 449215 447215 446216 445216 444216 442216 440216
      440217 441220 443222 445221 447221 448221 450219 450218
      451217
 0.01 440093 440088 440086 439081 437078 436078 434080 432080
      430085 430087 428089 427094 429096 431097 432099 434100
      436097 438095 440093
 0.01 415101 415099 415097 414094 413094 412094 410096 409098
      408100 407103 407105 409105 411106 411105 413104 413103
      415101 415101
 0.01 395089 394084 390086 383090 376093 370095 366093 364090
      360082 356075 349076 328071 318077 313079 310079 302075
      296070 287070 283071 277070 271071 268072 262074 261078
      261082 286102 293109 296111 300110 303113 305117 310120
      319125 322128 326128 330121 339122 342124 342127 346129
      349130 353128 366124 368116 371113 378108 384104 389100
      393094 395089
 0.01 379716 379711 378707 375703 368700 364698 358700 353701
      348705 334734 328754 324764 318770 306782 301785 298789
      295792 293794 290795 283795 281796 279794 277790 273787
      269786 259784 251783 246784 243786 239787 237790 232796
      229801 228806 229818 232827 238835 242837 245837 249837
      253838 257847 261854 265865 270873 274883 276887 276894
      278898 278903 279914 280924 278927 275931 265934 262937
      261941 263950 266955 268958 272960 276960 281961 282967
      284969 287968 292960 300955 303946 305941 306934 309924
      313916 317911 324907 328900 331888 332882 332877 334872
      335869 337868 341869 344866 350861 355854 358846 359835
      361823 365814 367809 367804 362811 358818 356821 353822
      350820 349814 349809 350804 354794 357784 358771 359766
      361761 369748 373740 375731 379716
 0.01 382072 382069 382067 382065 380065 378064 376067 376069
      378071 379074 380074 381072 382072
 0.01 336058 334056 334055 332055 330055 329053 328053 327053
      325055 325057 325059 326059 328060 330060 332060 334058
      336058 336058
 0.25 512242 514232 514226 508217 501209 499203 496200 489198
      486200 486204 483206 480213 484215 492217 495215 498219
      498226 499232 502238 505241 510244 512242
 0.25 521162 521160 520155 519152 518149 516147 513146 510147
      511150 512155 513157 515159 516161 519164 521162
 0.25 502262 501259 500256 499256 498254 497252 496252 495252
      494254 494256 494258 495259 496260 497262 499263 500263
      502262
 0.25 502834 502827 500822 495819 487819 478820 471822 465821
      453820 448821 445824 438827 436825 434820 428824 424829
      423836 423846 422853 417861 411864 407863 406859 405854
      403851 399851 394856 387865 385870 384875 384884 387892
      391899 398909 401916 403923 413958 413964 413970 410977
      408982 408986 411984 415977 417968 420959 422950 423942
      424934 426925 429919 434912 438907 444901 448896 451891
      453885 456877 458869 460864 462864 470865 471867 472874
      476880 481885 478892 476900 475910 476917 479920 481923
      481928 481937 483941 486943 489938 492930 494914 497901
      497892 498883 496879 493878 486878 487871 490864 494859
      498853 500850 501846 502834
 0.25 488119 489114 486112 484114 482117 481120 480124 478127
      478129 477134 481132 483130 485128 485126 487121 488119
 0.25 467667 467661 466656 464656 459661 457665 454672 452679
      449684 445688 439697 435704 434710 436712 439712 444710
      449706 455704 462701 465697 467688 467682 468673 467667
 0.25 470893 471888 470884 467885 465887 463888 462893 461896
      461900 463903 465904 467903 468900 470895 470893
 0.25 447785 447780 446778 442777 439777 436779 435782 434790
      433797 432804 432814 434818 437816 440813 444807 444798
      446793 447785
 0.25 426712 426710 425708 424708 422707 421707 419709 418712
      418714 418717 420719 421718 422718 423716 425715 425714
      426712
 0.25 428037 429035 428033 427032 426032 425032 424032 423034
      423037 424038 425039 426040 427039 428037
 0.25 418041 418036 417031 416024 418018 417010 413006 409003
      404003 402009 401014 401019 404023 408028 411033 413040
      415043 418041
 0.25 351773 350770 346770 343769 340771 334778 328792 324803
      321810 321813 318815 309820 305823 304827 303834 305840
      306844 304846 301852 304859 306871 307877 309881 312879
      314873 315866 313859 313851 314847 316846 323845 328841
      332836 334830 331826 327825 325823 323821 325818 333813
      337806 339798 344789 349780 351773
 0.25 353086 348084 343083 340082 337082 334084 332088 334093
      336096 339100 341100 344096 344092 346089 350088 353086
 0.25 324109 325104 323102 321097 320093 318093 313093 308090
      302091 300095 303101 308104 313107 317111 322110 324109
 0.25 305916 306911 304908 302905 300904 299903 297904 295906
      293909 292912 292916 294920 295922 297924 301922 302920
      304918 305916
 0.25 284825 282821 279819 271815 264811 258807 253805 252802
      246802 244805 245810 249812 251811 254814 261819 267823
      271824 276825 280826 284825
 0.50 507229 505228 504228 505230 507230 507229
 0.50 491848 491842 489836 484834 476835 472833 469830 465829
      460829 456830 454833 452838 449845 449851 451852 458854
      463856 467854 469851 473846 477845 481847 483850 479857
      478865 478868 480869 484867 486861 491848
 0.50 491904 491896 489894 487895 483897 481902 479907 480914
      484917 484924 486922 487918 489913 490906 491904
 0.50 463670 463663 460665 457669 456673 455678 455685 455690
      456696 459696 461694 462691 461686 462681 463675 463670
 0.50 446700 446698 445696 445695 444696 443696 442697 441699
      440699 439702 438704 438707 440708 442707 443706 444705
      445704 446703 446701 446700
 0.50 455859 453855 450854 448858 447864 445871 438874 434873
      435868 432860 432856 435853 435847 432845 430846 427849
      425859 418872 412873 407874 405871 401864 398859 393861
      391865 388873 386880 388888 397903 403915 412952 414957
      417959 419956 421951 423931 425921 427910 427905 429902
      434899 441894 447888 448884 448879 447874 450870 454864
      455859
 0.50 412024 413022 413019 411017 409015 409014 408013 406012
      404014 403016 403019 404020 404021 405023 405024 407026
      408026 409026 410026 411026 412024 412024
 0.50 349776 349773 348772 346773 345774 344775 343777 342779
      341780 340781 340784 342784 343783 345782 346781 347780
      348778 348777 349776
 0.50 335802 335800 335797 334796 332797 331798 330799 329800
      329802 328803 328805 327807 329809 331809 333807 333806
      334804 334803 335802
 0.50 327835 327833 326832 324833 322833 321834 319836 318838
      319840 319841 321841 323841 325840 326838 326836 327835
 0.50 315830 315828 316826 316824 314822 312822 311822 309824
      308824 307826 307827 306829 305831 306832 307833 308834
      309835 310836 312837 313836 314834 315832 315831 315830
 0.50 299916 299914 299913 297913 297914 297916 297917 299917
      299916
 1.00 421921 422914 419912 417912 414910 411889 402873 398865
      396865 394868 393874 391877 389880 390884 394893 398899
      401903 403907 405915 409924 410934 412945 413951 416954
      417953 419947 420938 420926 421921
 1.00 416886 417884 416883 416884 416886 416886
 1.50 418949 418940 418931 418921 414917 411912 409905 408904
      406906 406908 407915 409922 410929 412935 413945 414950
      416951 418949
 1.50 408898 408889 406883 403878 400872 396869 395876 393882
      394888 397894 401898 405901 408898
 2.00 416947 416945 417942 417940 416938 416936 415938 414940
      414942 414945 415947 416949 416947
 2.00 415928 415926 414924 414921 413919 412917 411915 410913
      409915 409917 409919 410922 410924 411924 411926 412928
      412930 414931 415928
 2.00 405889 405885 404882 402878 400876 398874 397876 396881
      395885 395886 396890 398892 401894 403895 404892 405889

$$





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