000
FXUS04 KWBC 130700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 13/1200 UTC THRU JUN 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOVING FROM THE LOWER LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS---EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN A REGION OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---1.5-2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE ORGANIZED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CURRENTLY
PUSHING OUT OF THE LOWER LAKES REGION TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC.  THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO UNDERGO
WEAKENING BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION TO THE UNCERTAINTIES THE CURRENT
CONVECTION ADDS TO THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD---THERE ARE ALSO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES---ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR TO THE
NORTH THE HEAVY RAINS SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST.  AT THE
MOMENT---DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD QPF
SOLUTIONS OF THE HI RES ARW AND ECMWF OVER THE FARTHER NORTHWARD
GFS---NAM--UKMET AND SREF MEAN GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND GENERAL MODEL BIASES OF BEING TOO FAR NORTH WITH
QPF IN THESE INSTANCES.  WIDESPREAD .50-1"+ AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DEPICTED FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN PA---ACROSS
NY AND INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND---AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
FOR A COMBINATION OF EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY AND ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THAT FIRES ALONG THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.

LOWER TO MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY

MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THESE VORTS
WILL BE EMBEDDED IN AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN QPF DETAILS AMONG
THE OPERATIONAL---HI RES AND SREF MODELS---LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN AND
ECMWF---DEPICTING .25-.50"+ AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
DAY 1.

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  CONFIDENCE LOW HERE ALSO GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS KEPT ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.

NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO BE EJECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROF.  THIS SHOULD FAVOR
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD---SPREADING FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS
AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES---ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 559083 560075 559068 559052 557049 555042 552036 541027
      531029 528032 523033 512035 507032 505026 505021 502017
      498013 496012 486001 483998 480997 477994 474993 461987
      452977 442966 436960 430953 420943 415940 410940 407941
      404939 401943 402949 400953 391954 385952 380955 376964
      375972 375980 377989 382995 388998 392001 387003 382010
      378018 378024 379029 384033 392035 389039 384045 383047
      380049 378047 372046 369047 366050 361054 358058 345063
      341065 338068 333074 330075 327078 326083 328086 332088
      334091 338096 345096 346096 348091 350089 355086 361083
      376081 381083 386087 397081 401080 404077 407076 410072
      413068 413064 408057 405054 404049 404044 404034 407034
      410037 416040 421045 424049 427050 430052 433053 437053
      441056 442058 444060 442062 441067 442071 444076 446080
      448083 450089 451091 450096 446094 444092 435092 430088
      429096 426099 426104 426108 429112 433112 437117 441118
      443121 442129 436136 434145 433155 439172 437174 435174
      434171 428163 423158 420162 418166 412182 413191 415198
      422214 426247 429250 434251 440250 449252 453252 458250
      477220 481219 486220 493221 495220 497222 499224 503225
      505225 511222 506216 499212 492210 487204 480203 465210
      458211 453211 451208 449203 449196 455189 464177 471172
      473171 477172 499191 502194 507195 516198 521200 522202
      525203 529199 535191 535186 534181 533168 535159 542137
      543124 545117 549114 552109 555102 557088 559083
 0.01 423687 420677 415674 409672 406671 403672 399672 395674
      391677 385684 384687 381690 366715 349741 344747 340747
      338746 333745 324749 318754 315759 311766 309773 306785
      304799 303813 304824 304830 305845 304859 303867 304876
      306886 308896 312911 317915 319917 324916 327911 329907
      330903 332896 334893 338892 346889 350886 360875 368872
      371870 374866 378860 380855 382846 385841 389835 390832
      393828 397827 399830 401835 403837 406843 407845 416843
      421829 423822 425813 429795 431786 432778 435773 437765
      437756 436747 433740 430735 430731 427719 427712 423687
 0.01 468038 468031 466026 465021 462017 456012 451003 446997
      443994 441992 439992 435992 431989 426991 424994 420996
      416999 412001 409999 405999 400000 394005 408013 410015
      415015 422012 427011 431012 437020 441027 445031 447031
      454038 462038 464041 467040 468038
 0.01 344817 343814 342813 341815 340818 340819 340823 342824
      342822 343819 344817
 0.01 330058 330052 329050 327045 324042 318035 317032 318029
      318018 317012 315009 311000 305994 295984 289977 284972
      279966 273961 267956 259954 252954 248956 244958 240960
      237963 235966 235970 234976 236979 237985 237991 235995
      235005 238012 245016 251021 251028 249033 251037 258042
      258057 262064 269069 272070 277069 283069 286069 288072
      297065 304058 306055 310053 316056 322057 327059 330058
 0.01 285811 283805 280800 277795 273792 267792 261793 257792
      250794 246798 244802 241812 243818 247820 250818 256819
      263824 268826 272827 279824 282819 285811
 0.25 536082 537079 537074 535068 530062 523058 514054 508053
      501049 495044 489042 485043 479050 475056 471072 474081
      478084 480087 482098 484105 482112 478116 473109 473107
      469102 464102 458107 457112 457119 459122 458131 455139
      451146 446153 445154 446157 448159 453160 455160 461154
      468151 473145 478145 483146 486147 487152 488156 491161
      493163 498165 505161 511157 512154 513146 514129 516119
      520110 524100 530092 535086 536082
 0.25 419700 417691 414684 409681 404679 398681 395683 392688
      388698 385709 380720 375730 368741 360750 351758 343766
      337777 333786 329796 330800 331802 336799 339794 343789
      349782 354778 361774 364774 366776 364784 363794 362802
      361807 357817 352829 347838 342847 340851 338857 340862
      343863 347860 354859 359856 362853 366849 373840 381829
      387821 394814 401811 405810 410811 414810 415807 419798
      425786 429774 429768 430759 428745 421719 419700
 0.25 447224 445222 442221 439222 441226 445225 447224
 0.25 304033 305022 304016 303011 300004 296999 291992 286987
      275979 268977 261978 258986 257989 257993 258009 262015
      265020 269027 274035 278039 285044 292045 299041 303037
      304033
 0.50 512100 513096 511091 508087 506086 502086 498090 497095
      493108 492112 490116 489121 486125 483128 481128 478129
      475133 478134 489134 493126 500118 506109 512100
 0.50 416702 415695 412690 406686 397688 392694 390703 388712
      386720 383728 379735 374744 369750 365754 365759 368763
      370763 379761 381764 381769 379775 366807 359822 355831
      354839 354845 357846 363839 371834 376829 386814 390805
      392799 396795 400795 407796 411796 417792 422786 425777
      426768 427758 426747 422736 419722 416702
 0.50 298018 296008 292999 286993 279990 271989 268990 265993
      263997 263002 264005 267009 272017 276022 284028 287030
      293030 296027 298021 298018
 1.00 413712 410700 407695 403695 400695 396698 394705 389724
      385740 384744 383749 387751 389757 389766 388777 388780
      389782 391782 397775 401772 406770 412773 416775 419773
      421771 421767 422764 422754 419743 417737 416731 415720
      413712
 1.00 389785 387783 385786 385787 386789 388786 389785
 1.00 383796 382795 379796 377799 374804 371809 369814 367818
      366823 369825 371822 373819 376814 379809 381805 382800
      383796
 1.00 285009 285006 284003 283002 280002 277001 277004 278006
      278007 280010 281010 283011 285009
 1.50 407704 405701 402701 399703 396711 394722 392734 392743
      394757 395762 396765 397765 404758 411750 413747 414740
      411727 411723 410715 407704
 2.00 404736 403732 400730 400729 400730 398733 398735 400738
      404739 404736

$$