Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 19/1200 UTC THRU JUL 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...

THE MODELS INDICATE ACTIVITY IN NEBRASKA TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO
MN/IOWA AS THE LOW-MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND ZONE OF 850-700 MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SPURS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS INDICATED AS THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PW) MAXIMA OF 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHEAST MN/ECMWF UP TO 2.25
INCHES NEAR THE SOUTHERN MN/WI BORDER.
THE HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMMB/NAM CONUS NEST ALSO SHOW MAXIMA
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND MOISTURE POOL IN
EASTERN IOWA...SUPPORTED BY THE NAM 300 MB DIVERGENCE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO EASTERN IOWA...AND THE
ECMWF INCREASING PW VALUES TO 2 INCHES. MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE
GFS/NAM AND HIGH RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS 00Z WRF
ARW/NMMB/NSSL WRF.  THE 00Z CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM MOVED THE PRECIP
EAT FASTER ACROSS WI/IL AND WAS GIVEN THE LEAST WEIGHTING AS AN
OUTLIER.


...SOUTHERN MID-ATL/SOUTHEAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATL STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST... WHILE BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OR STALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES
GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WILL POOL OUT AHEAD AND INVOF OF THIS
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH  LIKELY YIELDING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TUE AFTN/EVENING
ACROSS SERN VA INTO ERN NC/NORTHEAST SC...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS.  WITH THE 850 MB TROUGH
PROGRESSING SOUTH...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT.
MANUAL PROGS BLENDED CONTINUITY WITH THE GFS/HIGH RES WRF
ARW/NMMB/NSSL WRF.

...ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS SHOULD YIELD MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NEARBY
HIGH PLAINS ON TUES. BOTH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOVE NORMAL FROM EASTERN
AZ/WESTERN NM ACROSS CO/ADJACENT UT.  THE GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS
OVERALL LARGE SCALE SCENARIO ALONG WITH PERSISTENT SPOTTY UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAXIMA ACROSS THE REGION. MANUAL QPF BLENDED CONTINUITY
WITH THE 00Z MODEL QPF.

IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE UPPER LOW OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DRIFTS EAST WITH TIME...KEEPING STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER JET MAXIMA EXTENDING ACROSS OR INTO
EASTERN WA AND NORTHERN ID...AND THEN NORTH CENTRAL MT TONIGHT AS
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA STREAK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

...GULF COAST/FL...

SEA BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZE AND OTHER OUTFLOW MERGERS SHOULD AID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DIURNAL PERIOD WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS NEAR THE GULF COAST AND FL ON TUES.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED
CONTINUITY AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z MODELS IN THIS AREA.

PETERSEN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 532227 535201 536190 536180 535173 533168 531164 530159
      531149 527141 525139 522138 514148 509149 504152 498151
      492152 490153 485153 483154 481155 479152 478146 473140
      469142 466147 461161 455165 451173 447177 444184 441190
      439197 437205 432209 426211 422217 422220 425223 432226
      435226 437225 442222 446222 450220 456216 456214 454211
      459206 462198 465194 469189 476182 481182 481191 483195
      482198 480200 476201 472201 468205 464210 461215 461220
      460226 456231 450234 448234 447239 455237 461239 460243
      461245 463249 467251 473250 480250 483252 484256 487259
      493263 500274 502283 507288 514276 519264 525249 529237
      532227
 0.01 534016 535996 535985 533977 530965 529958 527952 522946
      520945 520942 523938 525934 528926 530914 529907 528903
      527899 525895 523892 519889 512885 506882 501882 498880
      488881 481886 472892 462897 457897 454895 444891 430882
      423876 419872 413872 405871 403872 400873 399870 396861
      393852 390842 391838 391832 393808 394801 393797 393788
      391781 389776 388772 389769 394761 396754 393749 392746
      393743 397731 397726 394722 392720 388721 381723 375705
      357709 352716 347724 334742 326760 320779 317790 315795
      313799 309800 305799 298797 282795 276788 267787 256789
      249794 243802 240806 239812 242823 249829 254834 257837
      260842 267845 278841 283841 286843 290852 293861 295865
      293870 290877 288881 288886 287896 287902 286906 283918
      277929 273936 267945 255957 250964 245974 237977 233981
      233989 237996 244000 252003 256004 260003 266003 269003
      271001 281998 284996 285990 290989 292987 292982 295977
      305963 309954 312950 314942 314934 312925 308918 307914
      306909 307905 309904 313907 319907 321906 322909 322916
      322923 323930 323942 324948 325955 328958 334958 339958
      346960 353956 358951 360946 361940 363934 361928 358921
      357919 359916 360913 364910 369911 375916 397940 394953
      395961 396968 403974 408977 410980 422996 423002 420006
      418010 414015 409021 404026 394036 386039 381039 377040
      369045 365047 360046 358048 354048 351048 348052 347056
      342056 340056 338054 332052 327054 325057 326062 323067
      320073 314079 305074 291065 282067 277063 274060 269059
      265060 262063 258070 260078 271091
 0.01 271091 279099 287108 293115 296117 297121 298126 300129
      304127 307125 310124 312126 317127 321126 329130 333131
      337130 342128 345132 352133 356132 363134 368136 370128
      371121 368117 368114 371115 375117 375131 378133 383132
      388129 395127 404121 411114 418106 421093 422079 428074
      438071 435061 434057 431053 427051 423051 422050 420046
      421038 425030 427027 429025 431026 431032 433033 437037
      441043 445043 447041 450042 457042 460039 464033 465032
      467033 470036 474034 476031 474030 473026 470024 468018
      471019 473022 476027 486033 490037 490041 488045 486050
      486055 484058 482065 481073 478075 475071 474068 474064
      470062 470053 466053 458074 457086 459091 456091 451090
      447092 438091 434092 430091 428089 424089 430096 432102
      436102 439098 443097 445099 451100 452103 449104 441108
      437107 439110 446116 448119 451119 455118 457115 460110
      464108 467112 465115 463117 463121 466125 470121 473121
      477119 479116 477104 479100 480102 483108 486111 488111
      491112 493109 497104 500099 502095 505087 508081 512077
      515073 517066 519060 520054 521048 522040 526028 534016
 0.01 492235 492230 491227 490224 488222 484221 481221 479221
      477222 477226 480227 483229 483234 484236 486235 489235
      492235
 0.01 483171 483168 483166 481166 479167 479170 479172 480174
      482173 483171
 0.01 469711 468703 465700 461700 458703 453705 450708 446716
      447729 450733 453735 451745 452750 457750 460747 460741
      460733 462729 467722 469711
 0.01 466013 465009 463006 461004 460002 458001 455000 453003
      452005 450007 448008 446010 448012 451012 453015 456015
      458018 461018 464016 466013
 0.01 437734 434731 430730 427733 428736 430743 431750 431757
      434759 435756 435751 432744 433738 436735 437734
 0.01 330120 330118 329116 327117 326118 327119 327120 328121
      330120
 0.01 309045 309043 310041 309041 308038 308036 306036 304038
      302040 300042 300044 302046 304047 305047 307047 309045
      309045
 0.25 522004 522995 522986 521979 518975 515972 512967 507960
      504957 501953 497944 491934 484929 477924 474926 471930
      470936 471943 472947 474954 475961 477965 484971 488974
      491978 495987 496994 495001 495006 498011 504019 508020
      511019 516017 519013 522004
 0.25 502178 502177 500177 500178 501179 502178
 0.25 470994 469991 468991 467989 466989 465988 464987 462989
      462991 463992 464994 465995 466996 467997 468996 470994
 0.25 461940 462934 461929 459922 453912 449907 445903 437897
      427890 418886 412884 406886 401887 397891 394897 393901
      393906 394911 396920 398927 402931 405937 406942 409950
      412955 421960 431967 438975 437982 437986 441986 444983
      450981 455979 457972 457964 455958 461940
 0.25 409059 394048 389045 383046 379048 377051 377054 380055
      383056 384058 382062 375062 369063 370066 374069 375076
      375082 379084 382086 380087 379090 376098 378101 381097
      381094 385095 389077 390073 390070 393069 396068 396073
      399075 402074 403071 401068 397066 400062 409059
 0.25 393114 393112 392112 391112 389112 387113 386113 385114
      384115 385117 387118 388117 390116 392115 393114
 0.25 387068 385066 384067 384070 385071 387070 387068 387068
 0.25 377753 377745 375738 372728 367724 363723 358724 352731
      347738 343745 339751 332769 327785 321803 317811 317819
      308835 305844 306854 304858 302862 302868 304873 308879
      314882 319884 324884 330883 331879 330874 331868 333861
      339853 344845 354843 362825 365817 366813 368811 371806
      373802 373796 374790 375781 374775 374769 375759 377753
 0.25 368092 367090 364088 362087 361085 357084 354084 352084
      350087 350090 351092 353093 356095 358096 362097 363096
      366095 368092
 0.25 356118 353114 348110 344106 343103 343100 342094 338091
      336094 335097 336099 341104 339109 338114 340116 343116
      350119 355120 356118
 0.25 341087 342083 339082 336080 335080 334080 331078 329081
      332083 334084 333086 335088 337089 339089 341087
 0.25 330101 328098 325096 324095 322093 320091 317090 315092
      314094 316096 320096 322098 325100 327101 330101
 0.25 289824 288817 285812 282811 279813 277819 273819 269816
      266810 264808 265804 266799 264796 260796 256797 252800
      249805 251810 253818 256822 262825 267827 273826 278824
      284825 289824
 0.25 290966 291964 291962 290962 288964 287966 286968 288968
      289968 290967 290966
 0.25 283968 284966 283966 281966 279967 278968 279969 281970
      283969 283968
 0.25 263974 261973 260974 261974 263974 263974
 0.50 456935 453925 450918 444911 438906 425898 418895 411893
      408894 404897 401903 400911 401915 405922 410931 412938
      414944 416948 421952 430956 434955 437954 444949 450945
      454940 456935
 0.50 397060 398057 398055 397054 395054 393054 393055 392057
      393059 393060 394062 395063 396062 396061 397060
 0.50 386093 385091 383092 383093 385093 386093
 0.50 383074 383072 383069 382067 382066 381065 380064 379065
      378065 378067 378069 378070 378071 379074 379075 381076
      383074 383074
 0.50 371752 370745 369741 365735 359735 356737 350742 345749
      342755 338764 336771 335777 334782 331788 327796 325803
      325810 328813 335814 344809 347805 355789 360782 364777
      368768 369759 371752
 0.50 363090 362089 360089 360090 362091 363090
 0.50 356835 356832 355831 354830 353828 352828 352831 352833
      353835 353836 355836 356835
 0.50 328848 327846 325848 324849 323851 325851 326851 327849
      328848
 0.50 262817 262815 261813 261811 260809 260807 260805 260803
      259801 258803 258804 256805 256806 256807 255810 255812
      255814 256816 257817 258817 259819 261819 262817
 1.00 447933 447927 445923 441919 438918 434919 431918 428914
      426911 419907 416906 414908 413912 415917 417919 421923
      422928 426935 430938 434938 443936 447933
 1.00 364753 363749 361746 356746 353748 349754 345761 342768
      341777 342783 343786 345787 348785 354780 358774 362769
      364765 364760 364753
 1.50 444928 443927 443925 442924 441923 440922 438922 437923
      437926 438927 438928 440929 442930 443929 444928
 1.50 360763 360760 359758 357757 355757 353758 353760 352761
      352762 351764 350765 350767 349769 351771 353771 355770
      356769 357768 358767 359765 359764 360763

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