Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 070700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST THU DEC 07 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 07/1200 UTC THRU DEC 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

TEXAS ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

WITHIN A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTH-CENTRAL MX WHILE GENERALLY SITTING JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ATOP A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MASS AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE RESIDES DOWN IN THE GULF OF MX.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TX EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. WITH ALL OF
THE INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS...A STEADY
LIGHT/MODERATE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS WELL NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
FAR WESTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN TX...GENERALLY FROM THE BIG BEND
WESTWARD. FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST...HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INTENSIFYING
850-MB FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE WITH A 35 TO 40 KNOT GULF
SURGE TRANSPORTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TOWARD COASTAL GA/SC. IT IS
QUITE THE DYNAMIC SETUP WITH A 250-MB JET STREAK IN EXCESS OF 160
KNOTS STREAMING INTO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL JUXTAPOSE ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT WAS
QUITE GOOD EXCEPT THE 00Z NAM WHICH SEEMED TO BE NORTH OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. THUS FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF WITH THE 00Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL/HREF MEAN WHICH PAINTED A FAIRLY CONSISTENT AXIS FROM THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND INTO
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.


GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...

CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
FEATURE A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM. THE REINFORCING SHOTS OF
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING COLDER LOW/MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION WITH 700-MB NUMBERS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AS LOW AS
-20C. THIS WILL STREAM OVER STILL MILD LAKE SURFACES...LIKELY UP
TO AROUND 7C...THUS AIDING IN SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WHILE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE LAKE SURFACES
OF ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL BE IDEAL SNOW PRODUCERS...THE MEAGER
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN A MITIGATING FACTOR AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DO NOT EXCEED 0.25 INCHES. OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO GIVEN THE
MOST FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SETUPS. LEANED MORE ON THE HIGHER QPF
SOLUTIONS WHICH WAS IN THE CAMP OF THE 00Z NAM/HRW-ARW/HREF MEAN.
ALTHOUGH DID INCORPORATE SOME OF THE 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF INTO THE
MIX TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRODUCTION.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SNOW FORECAST...PLEASE READ THE WPC
HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION AT QPFHSD.


RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 513788 512778 511769 510763 509754 507745 505738 504732
      501726 493713 490708 486704 482705 479703 477701 477696
      476694 474694 469694 460699 452706 449709 446711 443711
      439713 439716 442721 444723 442728 446732 452727 456727
      458729 460736 457749 453758 450771 444781 442787 440791
      440797 438799 434800 432797 434790 437785 439778 441770
      444758 448746 449743 448738 445734 441736 438740 429747
      427749 428754 425760 424769 422776 415802 414809 414816
      416829 417835 417841 414854 413856 413862 416868 419870
      426870 428871 432872 438871 444870 447867 452863 456861
      459864 462870 464874 464880 462886 462896 460903 458908
      458912 459920 455924 454929 453934 454938 454942 455945
      459949 464950 468952 472956 476957 481955 485954 490954
      494953 498952 501950 504944 504939 502936 502934 499934
      496927 497920 496913 495906 487902 482912 479916 478919
      474919 471913 472907 474899 478895 481888 482878 486872
      487864 486860 487856 489851 492846 491837 486828 484824
      479822 475822 473820 470816 471805 467799 463797 458793
      463782 462776 458776 456771 456766 459763 463759 466759
      467763 467772 470776 473778 475775 478775 483769 490767
      494767 496768 500775 500784 499794 502798 505803 508805
      510802 513788
 0.01 479732 479729 478727 477726 475727 475728 474730 474733
      474735 476736 477734 478734 479732
 0.01 448077 448075 448073 448072 447070 445069 444067 443067
      441069 441070 442072 443073 444075 446076 447077 448078
      448077
 0.01 437729 437727 437726 435726 434727 432728 430728 429728
      429729 428731 429731 431733 433733 434732 436730 437729
      437729
 0.01 445041 445038 444036 443035 442035 441036 440037 439038
      439040 439043 441044 443043 445041 445041
 0.01 434759 433756 432757 430759 431762 431764 431766 431769
      431771 431773 431776 431778 431781 432782 434780 434778
      433775 433773 433771 433768 433766 433763 433761 434760
      434759
 0.01 436828 437822 435818 432817 431812 432808 431802 428801
      426804 424813 422822 421826 422829 423835 425841 427850
      428853 432853 435851 437847 436841 435837 435833 436828
      436828
 0.01 428063 427058 425055 420052 417048 417043 414038 412042
      413045 412052 409054 397053 394050 392045 394039 398037
      396032 394032 391036 389043 388047 388052 391058 391063
      389063 390070 392072 394070 396073 398078 401077 405071
      408075 410074 413075 415072 416066 417064 416060 418058
      421061 421065 422067 424065 428063
 0.01 394661 393655 391653 389651 385652 372658 361668 351677
      342690 339694 334696 327701 326705 326711 326716 324719
      321724 320733 320742 318750 316755 314758 310760 307762
      301763 297764 293764 287763 280763 275764 272768 267773
      264774 261776 259778 259782 257786 253789 246792 243789
      245785 248780 255776 256771 250768 242767 239767 237765
      231761 226758 218760 217766 219776 228792 231800 234804
      234809 235818 237821 239821 242820 244818 246811 249808
      256807 261805 265806 272805 278805 281807 286812 289815
      289819 280829 274847 270853 265860 259873 252884 246897
      242902 239908 237912 234916 231923 232933 233936 233941
      231951 232960 231967 232975 234984 239988 241994 241998
      240002 239013 241020 243025 243035 243044 246052 242056
      242060 247066 255079 259084 262086 266087 280089 287088
      293087 301088 304090 309090 321095 325093 326089 321089
      319085 320082 327075 327072 326070 321065 320060 323058
      330060 333058 334056 329053 325048 322041 317035 315027
      311012 308002 310998 310991 310971 312960 312952 313942
      314935 317917 322904 328889 332874 356810 365780 371767
      376753 379746 381738 384729 385723 386678 394661
 0.01 400795 400793 396791 389793 384797 381800 376805 373808
      375812 377814 378812 382808 389806 396805 397800 400795
 0.01 399823 398816 396812 393812 391817 392821 390826 389831
      387836 388840 393840 395837 394834 396830 397825 399823
 0.01 376053 373044 371041 367041 369050 360051 356051 353055
      358062 356067 358069 368070 373064 370063 367059 368056
      370056 374054 376053
 0.25 475850 475849 474848 473845 473843 472843 471842 469842
      468842 467843 467846 467848 467851 467853 467856 468858
      469860 470860 472858 473855 474855 475852 475850
 0.25 443752 444749 444747 443746 441747 440748 438750 438751
      437753 436753 436756 436758 436761 436763 437765 438766
      440765 441762 442759 442757 443754 443752 443752
 0.25 448816 448814 448812 447810 446809 445808 443808 442808
      440809 439810 440813 441815 442816 443817 444819 445819
      446820 447819 448816
 0.25 428788 427781 424782 422786 421791 420796 419802 417806
      417811 418813 421809 422806 424801 426796 427791 428788
 0.25 407061 407060 407058 405058 404058 403058 403060 403062
      405063 407062 407061
 0.25 373711 371705 371700 370694 368691 363690 358691 355694
      353700 351706 349712 346716 343722 339733 335740 326756
      319764 315772 310792 305804 301817 299821 299827 299833
      297838 294847 290856 286860 280861 275861 270863 267867
      265871 261880 256889 252897 248907 244914 245919 246925
      245932 243936 237948 235959 236971 241978 249982 253986
      253990 251996 248001 250013 251019 253025 255028 256035
      257046 260055 258060 255065 254069 256073 261076 267077
      275078 280080 285082 290081 295079 301079 302059 300046
      303042 307040 306028 301019 296007 296999 297993 298979
      299973 300968 302957 304945 311921 319900 331858 338835
      346814 350805 353795 359775 361763 364753 369741 371728
      373719 373711
 0.25 345703 345701 344701 342700 340700 338701 337703 335705
      335706 334708 334709 334710 334712 335713 336714 337714
      338713 340711 341709 342708 343707 344706 344704 345703
 0.50 441757 441755 440752 440753 438754 437755 437758 438760
      439761 440760 441758 441757
 0.50 426791 426789 424788 424789 423791 422794 423796 423797
      423796 424794 425793 426791
 0.50 422801 422799 422798 421799 422801 422801
 0.50 365721 361721 357723 353728 349736 344742 334758 330767
      328777 322792 316806 310827 304844 299861 294868 289872
      285874 281873 274868 270870 267875 263882 259890 256897
      251915 250934 245943 241952 239963 240968 242971 244974
      249975 257977 260981 259986 258993 257998 252004 254013
      256017 259019 261022 261027 262038 263042 265045 286046
      291044 293041 294037 294031 297021 294014 287010 286005
      288999 291989 294980 296969 296958 299948 301941 304931
      306922 313906 316896 319885 323868 326859 329851 335834
      338826 343815 346807 348798 350790 352780 357763 360753
      363742 365732 365721
 0.50 262068 262066 262065 260065 259067 260070 261070 262069
      262068
 1.00 330824 330822 329821 327822 325825 325826 325827 327827
      328827 329826 330824
 1.00 288979 287972 283970 279969 277967 272966 271968 271972
      272978 270984 270988 275991 280993 284989 287985 288979
 1.00 276020 276016 275013 274011 273009 269009 267011 267013
      267015 268019 268022 270025 272026 274025 275022 276020
 1.00 263968 263962 261960 257956 256952 252951 249954 247958
      246962 246968 249970 254970 259971 263969 263968

$$




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