Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 151937
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 16/0000 UTC THRU NOV 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES

MULTIPLE STREAMS OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
MEAN TROF POSITION ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
DAY 1 PERIOD. A LEAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH AN AREA
OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY---WITH HEAVIER TOTALS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
L.P. OF MI WHERE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI WILL
ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS.

NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES---ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY DURING SUNDAY.  VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS FROM INCREASING WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS

THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY
SOUTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT OVER THIS ARCTIC AIR AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS SWINGING
EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL SUPPORT A HEAVY SNOW THREAT THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM
SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE---EASTWARD INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN MO/FAR NW AR.  FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH QPF DETAILS OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES--WITH INCREASING DETAIL DIFFERENCES TO THE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. .10-.25"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS
DEPICTED INTO THE PLAINS AS PER A MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE---ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT WITH THE EXACT
AXIS---WITH THE SREF MEAN---GFSP/CMC GEM AXIS FAVORED.

TX GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY--LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
STRENGTHENING OFF THE WESTERN GULF INTO COASTAL TX TONIGHT AND
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS
THIS PERIOD.  THERE ARE A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD---LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS.  THE DAY
1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER END OF THE GUIDANCE AS PER THE
UKMET---GFS---GFSP AND MOST OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE OVER THE SLOWER
0000 UTC ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS.  EVEN WITH THE FASTER HI RES
GUIDANCE---THERE IS A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS---WITH THE 1200 UTC ARW
THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF GULF/FAR SOUTHEAST LA IN LIEU OF HEAVIER TOTALS FARTHER
NORTHWARD.  THIS 1200 UTC ARW SOLUTION WAS A BIG CHANGE FROM ITS
PREVIOUS RUN AND WAS NOT FAVORED GIVEN ITS OUTLIER STATUS.
DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL GIVEN THE INCREASING PW VALUES AND FAVORABLE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS PUSHING INTO THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD.

NORTHEAST COAST OF FL---COASTAL GA--FAR EASTERN SC AND EASTERN NC

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A DEVELOPING
COASTAL FRONT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FL/SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND OFF THE COAST
FROM NORTHEAST FL INTO EASTERN NC.  AT THE MOMENT---THE MODELS
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH THIS COASTAL WAVE--WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO COASTAL NORTHEAST FL---COASTAL GA AND
OVER FAR EASTERN SC AND EASTERN NC--WITH AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT TO
MODERATE AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

DAYS 2-3...

SOUTHEAST AND EAST COAST...

THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FASTER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PER
THE LATEST MODEL  CONSENSUS THAT SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSION
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION ALSO ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE
LOW THAT NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST BY LATE MONDAY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS PRIMARILY MADE ON A SMALL
SCALE.  THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CORRESPONDINGLY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.75
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SUPPORTING LOCAL RAINFALL MAXIMA
NEAR 2 INCHES.  AREAS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD RECEIVE MUCH
LOWER AMOUNTS HOWEVER...AS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY LOW WITH THIS EVENT.  USED MODEL QPF`S CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS...WHICH IS NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF FOR MOST AREAS.  DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES
HOWEVER...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY DERIVED FROM
THE HIGHER RESOLVING NAM...WHERE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE
LIKELY.  REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SNOWFALL.

ORAVEC/JAMES

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 509947 509931 505919 502908 497901 486902 479907 472912
      467920 464930 464939 465944 466960 469972 471974 474977
      477979 477983 477987 479989 479994 482998 490003 494003
      496997 499993 500988 504977 504968 503962 509947
 0.01 490759 484709 482696 479691 477689 473685 470686 467689
      464695 446732 447736 448739 446739 444740 441745 441752
      441758 438772 429787 419801 417804 415806 412807 407808
      404806 400804 398803 397800 393798 388799 384801 379803
      372810 356823 346837 341844 334852 324864 319871 313876
      289901 277912 271919 264927 260933 255940 252945 253948
      261954 258961 259966 263968 271971 274974 276977 279980
      281979 285978 289975 292973 297970 301969 307969 314969
      319968 325968 329972 332975 333982 332987 330991 320009
      312026 309033 307038 307045 306056 312062 318067 323068
      328067 331071 330077 324083 318093 318097 320101 324109
      326111 331112 335111 341112 348117 356118 359123 363127
      367129 372131 373135 380142 382151 380160 381171 381177
      383182 384187 387191 391199 398207 400206 401203 401196
      400191 400184 400180 401174 402164 401157 401150 400145
      396142 396134 397120 395111 393106 394098 396086 399077
      409060 409054 408051 402044 391025 390020 390013 388009
      385008 380006 377005 377000 377986 381975 383970 382963
      381953 381938 388921 394902 398894 401882 404874 407862
      411852 416844 419839 424839 426836 429837 430841 429845
      424853 420858 417862 416870 419874 419881 417905 414925
      410937 407948 405954 405958 405965 406969 407973 409973
      414973 416971 418971 423971 429971 433973 439973 442971
      445971 447969 449963 449954 450947 450934 451926 453920
      459902 461893 461879 462874 463866 468864 473866 481869
      486869 488869 488865 488856 487849 485838 480812 480802
      482796 486786 489762
 0.01 475109 475106 473105 472098 471093 467092 466097 464102
      461106 462109 464113 467116 471114 473111 475109
 0.01 455103 455100 453098 453097 452097 450096 449097 449099
      450100 451102 451103 453103 454103 455103
 0.01 453081 453078 452076 451075 450073 450072 449070 448070
      447069 445069 443069 443070 441071 441072 442074 443075
      444075 446077 446078 448078 449079 451080 451081 453081
      453081
 0.01 446043 446041 445038 443036 442035 440035 438035 438036
      439038 440039 441040 441041 443043 443044 444046 445046
      446043 446043
 0.01 368759 368751 366743 363738 358734 354732 350735 346740
      343745 336753 330763 326775 325782 323784 320784 315783
      310783 302791 299797 299804 287805 289808 294811 305816
      310817 315815 321812 326810 331807 336803 340799 343794
      348784 356782 359779 362774 364768 368759
 0.25 459805 460798 457792 454790 451794 449799 448804 447809
      445814 445819 445823 448824 453821 454818 457813 458808
      459805
 0.25 448860 449853 446848 444848 439851 436852 432854 427857
      425860 423865 428867 431867 436867 442866 445865 448860
      448860
 0.25 392068 392066 389066 387070 385072 381073 380071 376071
      375078 377083 382087 387089 386084 385081 386077 390074
      392068
 0.25 384051 383049 380047 376043 372039 370032 368026 364030
      357040 351049 346052 344054 345058 357061 362060 365061
      366065 369068 374066 373063 370061 366059 370056 375055
      381054 384051
 0.25 372963 371947 371939 370931 368928 365928 360932 357936
      354942 350954 350962 352967 355969 356971 355978 354986
      356994 360997 362999 364998 367983 371970 372963
 0.25 354883 354874 352868 350866 346865 339867 334869 331868
      327870 322874 318878 310887 302899 288920 283931 277944
      271955 270961 276964 283966 291965 305961 316956 327949
      334948 340945 343940 345932 346915 348907 350899 354883
 0.50 373050 370048 369048 366048 363048 360049 358050 356052
      355055 357058 359058 361058 365056 366056 368054 372053
      373050
 0.50 346895 345888 343884 335878 330878 326880 316885 310891
      304900 299908 293916 290927 286937 281945 279958 282960
      288961 299960 308956 316949 323943 330934 335926 339916
      343907 346895
 1.00 330908 330903 330897 327894 320892 315893 306905 299916
      295923 293931 287945 288950 290952 294953 299952 304948
      310944 314938 316930 324918 330908
 1.50 317905 316901 313903 308908 303916 299922 295931 291939
      292944 297944 304939 309933 312929 313924 315913 317905
 2.00 310922 308919 304920 301924 299927 297931 295935 293939
      297939 300937 303934 306931 309928 310924 310922

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 484664 483661 480660 475657 465652 459649 454650 445657
      440663 436665 434664 431662 427663 423665 421667 414670
      409673 405675 403677 399682 381702 373711 365718 354727
      343736 336740 328741 313744 311745 310748 309755 311764
      311769 310771 308773 308777 309786 313786 320785 324784
      327782 333778 341778 343781 342785 339789 335793 323800
      312806 307807 305809 298811 287817 276821 271822 267823
      261827 256832 253836 245847 243851 243859 242866 241875
      241878 242881 247884 256891 264896 260901 257908 251921
      250927 250937 250954 253967 255970 255974 252982 247993
      253000 272020 277024 283023 285022 285018 283013 276003
      272999 269992 265980 268968 273961 277956 279953 283953
      287953 290955 292956 297956 303955 310954 314950 330930
      332928 336928 343929 347932 351935 355934 359932 364927
      375919 379915 384909 387905 389899 395888 402873 404867
      406861 408855 411852 421838 429828 441822 454818 458804
      461798 466792 474783 477778 479777 480773 483754 484748
      486737 488729 488720 486699 484664
 0.01 499870 500862 499853 496844 492841 488837 486831 485824
      483819 480816 476815 472815 463821 458829 455830 452828
      448829 446832 435849 433852 430851 426848 418849 416854
      417861 418868 417870 421874 425876 429876 432874 437871
      443871 449871 452873 456876 457883 455888 452891 447892
      443896 437902 431907 434911 435915 436921 440926 443928
      447933 453939 456941 458945 459947 463951 469957 480957
      482953 486953 491951 492947 487937 483927 482913 482905
      482901 483897 485892 488888 493884 495880 498875 499870
 0.01 477924 477922 477920 477917 477915 477912 475910 474911
      472912 470914 470915 470917 471917 471920 472922 473925
      473927 474929 475927 476926 477924
 0.01 465930 465927 465925 465922 464921 462922 462923 460923
      459925 457926 456927 457929 457930 459932 460934 462933
      463932 464931 465930
 0.01 445046 445043 445041 445040 444038 443037 442036 442035
      440035 438035 437038 436040 436041 437043 438043 439045
      439046 441046 443048 444046 445046
 0.01 345013 346997 346991 343984 339982 335982 330984 325988
      319995 316000 315003 314007 316012 320016 323020 324027
      323035 321040 315040 310036 309030 309023 309015 309011
      308019 306024 305031 304036 306042 306049 306053 308054
      311052 314053 316056 318052 322052 325051 326048 329043
      333041 337037 340032 343023 344016 345013
 0.01 273803 272799 270795 264794 257796 249795 247797 247802
      252808 256811 260813 264814 266815 269813 271811 269809
      267806 269805 273803
 0.25 471708 470703 471696 470685 467679 467674 463671 458665
      451665 446668 441670 438672 430681 422687 417690 414690
      414687 414684 412683 408684 403687 400691 396698 389708
      384712 379715 371721 363729 328751 324754 321758 322769
      325771 332771 343767 356765 366759 376759 375764 372767
      364776 356784 350793 343799 336806 332811 326813 321821
      319824 315826 307828 299829 295831 290835 282841 276848
      274852 272857 274864 277867 281871 282876 281887 270907
      266918 263927 261935 262941 265946 272947 278946 282944
      290941 299934 307927 320911 326904 335897 343892 346890
      352889 360896 366895 370892 378884 383877 389867 394857
      404841 411832 417821 425813 433807 439799 445788 449779
      455772 464763 467758 469751 471738 472726 471708
 0.25 481867 480862 477858 474870 473873 468875 466878 463883
      460893 460903 462908 466908 468905 471900 475890 477880
      480869 481867
 0.25 403722 403719 399721 395724 391728 386733 383737 381743
      383746 386745 387742 390737 394733 399730 402725 403722
 0.50 459716 458716 457717 458717 459716
 0.50 458704 455700 451698 447697 448691 449685 448681 446675
      444673 439677 437682 437688 442691 442698 441704 437712
      430720 426724 423729 422734 419737 412742 406746 403751
      400753 399758 401760 407768 407773 405778 403784 400788
      393794 386800 381801 378801 378798 377792 379787 383776
      389767 395759 395753 391752 385754 382758 373773 358789
      351797 343803 320832 317834 311837 302834 296834 292838
      288843 287847 285857 287871 287884 287888 285893 273910
      268921 265929 264934 266939 270941 276942 284939 291935
      296931 300927 306920 319905 324898 331891 345880 351872
      358870 365870 372870 376867 379863 380859 383848 390839
      394837 397833 400825 402818 405813 412805 420798 423795
      425798 429796 431791 435780 440773 445765 456743 457735
      456727 457721 456718 454719 453714 454710 458704
 0.50 470888 470884 466883 465887 464890 464895 463898 463903
      465903 467900 468898 469895 470890 470888
 0.50 452723 452720 452721 452723 452723
 0.50 427738 426736 426739 427738
 0.50 376735 363736 358736 353739 343744 333752 328754 324759
      326764 331767 336767 341765 347763 352759 355755 360754
      367753 370748 374737 376735
 1.00 359819 360816 359815 357815 356815 355815 355817 354819
      352821 352822 351824 350824 351825 351826 351828 353830
      353828 354827 355826 356824 357823 358822 358821 359819
      359819
 1.00 352844 351829 342840 338847 334851 323859 313867 310867
      310865 312861 311858 307857 303859 299863 295869 294874
      294878 294882 296884 293891 284902 277911 274918 273927
      274930 277932 283931 291928 295924 304915 313904 321894
      325888 331883 347862 351854 352844
 1.00 343757 343755 342754 340754 338754 336754 335755 333756
      332757 331757 330758 328759 329761 330762 332762 334763
      336763 337762 338762 339761 341760 342759 342758 343757
 1.50 320879 319876 317877 312880 303886 295895 288903 281912
      279918 281925 292922 296918 300914 306905 312894 318885
      320879

24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 496686 495681 494677 491668 484648 481641 480639 476640
      469643 464646 455649 446650 443649 439651 433656 426661
      419666 409677 389699 367712 353720 338728 325736 312748
      292769 275785 266787 259790 253794 248800 243807 241814
      242833 242840 246845 252849 254848 258849 267856 272857
      279855 286853 290849 296843 300838 305831 309826 322812
      332804 339799 345795 352794 359791 368784 393764 401761
      406755 409755 410757 411764 415767 419764 423765 424770
      423775 417780 414782 410784 399790 394793 387795 378806
      376810 373812 370813 366815 363818 361821 362823 365820
      372816 378814 384814 386813 387809 389806 389800 393798
      396796 400795 403792 414787 418792 418800 416808 414818
      415827 416833 419833 420831 422830 425831 431833 435835
      438839 437845 432845 422837 415841 413844 411849 411857
      412865 415873 420875 428875 434872 439872 442873 449875
      453879 453886 453896 454901 455907 459915 460919 464919
      469913 473907 476897 479890 480882 480872 481864 484854
      483850 480845 478840 475840 471831 468821 465814 461807
      456801 454792 453785 451785 450789 448792 446791 444788
      442786 441781 442772 445756 455745 458742 461741 467735
      473729 480724 486720 489709 496686
 0.01 431759 431757 430755 429757 428758 427760 427762 427763
      426765 427766 429765 430764 430762 430761 431759
 0.25 479688 479681 477674 474665 471661 467659 458660 450659
      442661 434666 426672 414684 408691 402699 399707 399712
      398717 392725 386732 375744 370751 365760 364764 366769
      370770 374768 381764 389755 400744 413730 422717 428710
      431706 436703 444698 451695 454695 458698 460701 458703
      454708 449714 448717 452716 459709 463701 469702 475700
      478694 479688
 0.25 475885 475873 474860 473851 470848 466847 463847 461844
      458835 456832 452831 450834 447838 444845 441853 440857
      441862 443864 448864 454861 458862 459866 459875 460886
      461910 465912 469905 472898 474887 475885
 0.25 446817 446816 444817 443817 442819 442820 442822 443822
      444822 445819 446818 446817
 0.25 441760 441752 439747 437746 435751 434756 434763 434768
      435775 436777 438772 440767 441762 441760
 0.25 431788 431783 429779 427777 425779 423787 421792 420799
      419807 419816 420818 421817 424811 426805 428798 430790
      431788
 0.25 433859 432857 431854 428852 426850 423849 422848 420849
      418851 417854 416858 416863 417866 421867 424866 427864
      429863 431861 433859
 0.25 365726 362725 359726 355728 347736 339743 334745 328746
      322752 314762 301779 295786 291789 286793 283797 283800
      286802 290800 295797 302791 310782 325766 341753 356738
      361732 365726
 0.25 289829 288822 284815 282809 278804 274804 273801 271799
      266799 261802 256807 251818 250825 251832 255837 262838
      268836 274832 277832 277834 273839 273843 276844 281843
      286839 289833 289829
 0.50 471885 471878 470873 467869 464872 462876 462883 462891
      463898 463905 465905 468900 470895 470890 471885
 0.50 448670 446667 443666 436669 430673 425679 415691 411696
      407703 409710 406717 403724 402729 403732 407731 408729
      413722 421710 429697 437685 442679 446673 448670
 0.50 455850 456845 454842 451842 449843 447846 446849 444853
      444856 445859 448860 451857 453855 454852 455850
 0.50 440755 440752 440750 438748 436749 435751 435753 435756
      435758 435761 435763 436765 436768 437768 438767 439765
      439764 440762 440760 440757 440756 440755
 0.50 430786 429781 427780 425782 424785 423789 422792 421796
      421799 421804 424804 425801 427798 428795 428793 429788
      430786
 0.50 280823 277820 275820 272822 267823 264821 262820 259820
      256823 256827 260829 264830 267831 272830 276828 280825
      280823
 1.00 439757 439755 439753 438751 436752 436753 436756 436758
      436760 437763 438763 439760 439759 439757
 1.00 429788 429786 428784 427783 427784 426786 425789 425791
      425792 425794 425796 426794 427793 428791 428790 429788

$$





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