Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 151829
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 16/0000 UTC THRU AUG 17/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS---UPPER MS VALLEY---LOWER MO VALLEY

HEIGHT FALLS IN SEVERAL STREAMS WILL BE EJECTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROF ALIGNED THROUGH THE ROCKIES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD---PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  PW VALUES AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL REMAIN 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.  THIS COMBINED WITH WELL
DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE EJECTING HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS.
THERE IS A TYPICAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIP DETAILS
LEADING TO AVERAGE (LOW) CONFIDENCE WITH THE DETAILS.
HOWEVER---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
TOTALS STRETCHING ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY.  DAY 1 QPF LEANED
MORE TOWARD THE IN HOUSE HI RES MEAN---WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE DETAIL OF THE NSSL WRF AND HI RES ARW.

CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH 1.75-2"+ ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
GULF COASTAL REGION FOR THE UPCOMING DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF
DETAILS---WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS.

EASTERN NC

THE WELL DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS THAT HAS
SUPPORTED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY WILL BE
PUSHING OFF THE COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
TRAILING CONVECTION CURRENTLY INTO NORTHEAST NC MAY LINGER INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD...AFTER 0000 UTC
WED...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS EARLY DAY 1
OVER EASTERN NC.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
LATE DAY 1---1800 UTC WED TO 0000 UTC.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 480616 484617 486618 488619 491619 493620 495621 498622
      500623 502625 504628 505632 507635 508637 509642 511644
      512648 514651 515654 519665 521674 522684 522691 519697
      509695 504692 501700 496706 491713 487719 485722 481724
      479727 474728 470729 466727 461726 457725 453726 446727
      442723 439718 438709 438705 439701 442694 447681 448672
      446668 443671 433682 427688 423697 418703 416710 412716
      408721 405724 402725 400724 394722 386724 375734 372740
      369747 367755 366759 367764 369768 368773 365780 360786
      359792 360799 361808 363814 365821 369824 375828 382829
      391828 395828 396829 404843 408852 408856 410859 414879
      416883 420885 422886 425890 430893 433894 436894 442893
      448891 455890 460888 473882 478886 484889 493898 505911
      510918 515923 524930 528931 533933 544943 544952 546962
      546976 545982 544987 540995 535995 530995 528993 524994
      520994 516994 512996 508001 501012 500014 497014 490013
      485012 476011 470008 464009 449009 442011 436014 432023
      432037 431050 432061 432072 433078 434081 434086 432092
      426092 422086 416073 410073 404075 399078 397076 397071
      397064 394061 391059 389055 387047 387034 387024 386017
      384014 381013 374013 362017 356021 351024 340030 331030
      324029 322027 319027 316029 312032 310036 307043 306049
      303052 294058 292060 294062 297069 298074 300082 297088
      292093 291096 287095 281097 278095 274094 267091 259089
      252084 246080 239076 229069 226064 225056 230013 230006
      231003 233003 236005 240005 242010 244014 249014 254010
      262010 269016 272018 275018 280015 285016 291018 296014
      302012 306010 311008 316004 320999 333980 334973 336968
      338962 342956 344942 345935 346925 346918 346913 344910
      337913 333917 329929 327935 321939 317941 313941 308938
      301940
 0.01 301940 293935 290935 288933 288926 288918 289912 290905
      289897 287887 292878 293874 292871 289866 286860 284854
      283850 281848 279845 282833 278830 272828 265828 258826
      252820 248815 243815 242812 241809 245804 249800 252796
      255792 259790 270785 281779 283774 283771 286768 302757
      308753 313749 322741 328735 332730 337729 349723 354719
      357713 360710 366710 370709 374705 380695 387683 391675
      395670 400667 419651 426644 431640 437639 449639 454638
      457638 459636 473619
 0.01 360885 357883 354882 350882 349886 349890 349892 348897
      349901 351897 353894 354892 356890 358888 360885
 0.01 350824 349821 347819 345818 343816 341813 339811 337809
      335811 334815 333817 332822 334826 336828 338829 342829
      345827 347826 350824
 0.25 512668 510658 507646 504639 498634 491633 490634 489637
      490644 490654 495659 501662 505667 510672 512668
 0.25 518965 513962 511959 510956 505949 501945 500934 497924
      493916 487910 481908 475909 469912 466914 462914 456911
      451905 447903 443904 436908 430919 423922 416924 407926
      404927 401925 397918 392911 389906 387899 383882 377863
      372862 365867 365872 366877 368883 369893 369901 368911
      366919 361928 358936 363948 367955 369963 369970 370975
      374982 379987 383993 390004 393023 395030 396035 399038
      404044 409052 412057 416061 422062 425058 425055 424046
      424035 424022 426011 429006 433001 443992 447990 452989
      459988 463989 463995 464999 468001 474002 480002 487000
      492997 492993 490989 489986 493985 498981 504974 509966
      518965
 0.25 356768 356760 352755 352751 349750 344753 339753 333756
      326764 319774 312782 312785 314786 320783 324782 329784
      339789 343790 347786 350782 353776 356768
 0.25 310907 311901 310894 309890 307886 305885 303887 302891
      300897 299901 298905 300910 302913 305913 308912 310908
      310907
 0.25 287800 283798 277796 270796 262798 258801 254806 256810
      262810 267808 272805 280804 284804 286802 287800
 0.25 280076 280068 278064 278059 279050 280041 278035 272032
      268031 266033 260038 255041 250042 247040 241037 236037
      233038 229043 228047 229051 231057 237063 247071 252075
      259078 265081 270081 274080 278079 280076
 0.50 491937 491929 490924 488919 483916 477916 473918 468921
      460922 452919 447917 442918 433925 424931 421933 415935
      404936 399935 395930 388922 384921 383915 382908 381902
      378896 374895 372902 371909 369921 368929 370934 374948
      376963 378974 384983 390992 393997 395004 397016 398023
      400028 407037 413047 417048 419044 419031 420014 422006
      424001 429994 433990 438988 449984 460982 477977 482971
      486967 488965 489961 488952 489944 491937
 0.50 347769 345768 344769 342770 341770 340771 339773 338775
      338777 339779 340779 341780 343779 345777 345776 346774
      347772 347769 347769
 0.50 267072 267069 264065 259059 252054 245048 238045 234045
      232049 236055 242062 249066 256071 265073 267072
 1.00 474937 474934 471932 464929 456930 450929 447928 442929
      436934 427945 422949 418956 418961 420965 428967 431967
      433971 435975 438977 445976 452973 464967 469962 472959
      473954 473944 474937
 1.00 422987 417986 409987 403987 401985 401979 400970 400961
      398954 395950 391950 386953 383955 381958 382967 384974
      387979 393984 396989 399998 399004 402009 407010 413006
      417001 420994 422987
 1.50 467947 466944 462942 459942 454944 451947 449952 449955
      450959 454960 457959 461957 464954 467949 467947
 1.50 393972 394970 394968 393965 391963 389962 387962 387963
      386965 386968 387970 387971 388972 389974 391974 393973
      393972

$$




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