Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 261848
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 27/0000 UTC THRU JUL 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...FLORIDA...

LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF MORE ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER
RAINS OVER THE FL PENINSULA..AS A LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND A MODEST
AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.  IN THIS VERY
MOIST INFLOW REGIME..WITH PWS STILL IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES..SOME
HEAVY RAINS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED MAINLY CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST OF
FL FROM ESPECIALLY TAMPA DOWN TO FORT MYERS.
MODEL QPFS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE RAINFALL MAXIMUM ALONG
THE FL WEST COAST..SO CONFIDENCE RATHER HIGH IN THIS FORECAST.
AWAY FROM THE COAST THERE WAS A BIT MORE MODEL QPF SPREAD..WITH
WPC STAYING CLOSE TO A ECMWF HIRES..GFS AND GEM REGIONAL BLEND.


...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THRU THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WESTWARD
INTO THE MID/LOWER OH VALLEY...

ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THRU
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND..MID ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY REGION WITH
TIME DURING THIS PERIOD..THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST A VERY
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR ZONE REMAINING IN PLACE.  EXPECT THIS SHEAR
AXIS TO FOCUS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN A BAND OF HIGHER PWS
POOLED VICINITY OF THIS AXIS..AND AIDED DURING THE LATER MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS BY HEATING.  STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS..KEEPING AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE
0.25-0.75 INCH RANGE IN GENERAL..ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS AND SLOW MOVING CELL REGIME.  HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
POINTS TO THE EASTERN PA..NJ..LONG ISLAND..SOUTHEASTERN NY STATE
AND DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA AREA FOR THE POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
RAINS..SO DO HAVE AT LEAST SOME OF THE HEAVIER AREAL AVERAGE
TOTALS THAT REGION.


...MT...

A VERY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES..WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO MAINLY
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT IN PARTICULAR..WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS..CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MT AND EXTENDING BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN MT.  FOR THE MOST
PART THE MODEL MASS FIELD AND QPFS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT HERE..SO STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR RATHER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.


...CO FOOTHILLS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES FROM THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM
EASTERN CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS..AND THEN LIFTING MORE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY ON A DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN UP THRU THIS REGION.  SOME OF THE 12Z HIRES
GUIDANCE NOT REAL EXCITED WITH THIS OUTBREAK..BUT ENDED UP STAYING
CLOSE TO CONTINUITY..WHICH DID HAVE SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE OTHER
HIRES QPFS AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL QPF GUIDANCE.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 535169 536161 535153 536146 537139 537128 536123 533119
      530119 528121 521127 513126 511125 511121 511113 515099
      518090 520086 520080 520073 520068 516058 514048 514034
      514020 512007 508001 502998 494999 488002 485005 482009
      475026 471053 467060 462064 455069 451069 446069 443070
      440073 437076 437081 435089 432091 428093 426096 427109
      422114 421121 422125 430130 437130 441132 441139 439149
      438156 437160 433166 430171 429176 432179 435177 439171
      445165 453163 459168 467170 470169 474170 480176 482180
      482187 484191 485195 487200 486207 481211 478212 470213
      457215 449217 443220 446222 451224 460226 475222 479222
      483220 487221 489224 493230 497239 500243 504244 506245
      510244 512242 513238 512232 509224 505218 503213 503206
      507196 510191 515192 519194 521192 524192 528189 531185
      532177 533172 535169
 0.01 492684 492679 491676 487672 484671 479671 475672 476669
      479660 480655 479646 474638 466635 463635 457636 449643
      444651 440658 436666 427685 423694 422696 419696 415695
      412699 409704 406714 403722 399730 389745 383765 366798
      357816 351835 350842 351845 352851 356853 364854 369860
      369867 369872 370884 369894 368907 369914 374913 381908
      386908 389911 393918 396922 400922 405920 406915 408911
      411909 412908 412904 410901 406896 404891 404887 407887
      412887 414881 413875 411871 406862 403851 400841 394833
      390821 388809 388803 390801 396794 403788 412784 416776
      419766 421752 421746 424742 428739 433738 437738 440739
      447742 455748 462749 461760 460768 462774 466775 468772
      474753 477744 480733 485710 492684
 0.01 451694 450692 448692 447693 445693 443694 442696 440697
      439697 437698 435698 434701 436702 437702 439701 441701
      443701 444699 446698 447697 449696 450695 451694
 0.01 443978 443970 442966 437959 437952 436948 433941 430939
      425939 420945 413961 408970 406973 404973 403970 400965
      397963 394963 391965 389969 385978 383986 380996 373002
      368008 365014 361022 359031 357036 354038 348042 340045
      335046 330046 320046 315045 312043 306038 303038 299039
      291041 284039 278042 270048 265046 262044 257039 251034
      244032 240031 237033 233034 232038 232049 254068 264081
      270085 273088 274092 273099 275103 278105 282107 287111
      290113 294113 302114 304109 305104 307094 308089 309083
      305074 304069 306064 313060 319059 324060 328062 337063
      345061 348060 353062 358064 363063 370060 379060 385058
      392055 397049 403031 408029 410025 414019 421013 427011
      433008 436004 436002 434995 433992 433988 436985 441982
      443978
 0.01 325803 325797 323795 318793 311791 307784 303780 295781
      283787 274791 268792 261792 253794 248798 245803 243809
      240815 239819 238824 238831 240838 244842 248858 250866
      253869 259864 263863 270861 274861 277863 281868 283869
      286868 291863 292856 295840 299834 306833 311831 314826
      319811 324808 325803
 0.25 522168 524163 524158 522150 520145 515146 511149 507154
      504161 502168 504174 510177 516177 520172 522168
 0.25 504093 505083 505074 505067 503060 501058 498058 494055
      486061 481064 478067 472076 468082 466084 464082 460082
      456084 453099 446106 443109 443113 444119 446125 447131
      447147 448151 451153 455155 460154 464152 468148 471143
      476132 482123 489113 495105 501100 504093
 0.25 478696 476693 471695 468697 464700 462703 459708 460712
      464713 468712 473711 476707 477704 478698 478696
 0.25 421713 421707 419707 416711 411723 397743 393749 391755
      388769 388774 386777 383782 377792 370803 367809 365816
      363822 363826 364827 368822 371817 377806 384795 388790
      390784 393778 395777 398777 404772 407767 411761 413755
      418743 419735 419726 421713
 0.25 427966 428961 427957 425956 423958 421961 420963 419966
      418970 417973 418975 421976 423974 424971 426968 427966
 0.25 416005 417000 417996 416991 414989 408988 401988 396990
      391992 384002 378013 373023 371030 372037 376037 380031
      383026 387022 397016 408013 413010 416005
 0.25 398871 398855 396850 393847 390842 386838 383839 382845
      378857 376868 376884 376892 378895 380896 383893 385888
      393883 396878 398871 398871
 0.25 307822 308817 306813 300809 289803 284802 280803 271805
      267806 268808 262811 258813 256816 253822 252830 253838
      256846 258850 260852 265853 269852 276850 282846 286840
      289834 297830 303827 307822
 0.25 299084 298079 295075 287070 277066 267062 257057 254057
      253059 256063 263070 270076 277082 281086 286089 287091
      290091 295088 299084
 0.50 501093 502088 501085 500082 496072 494070 492070 489071
      484072 480074 471089 467091 463089 460089 458090 457093
      458099 458103 456108 452111 450115 450119 450126 452132
      450139 452144 456147 461147 467141 471133 476124 481117
      492101 497098 501093
 0.50 416736 415732 411732 405736 401741 397747 393755 393764
      396764 399762 401760 405759 408759 409756 412749 415741
      416736
 0.50 412998 410995 406994 401994 394997 390002 385008 384012
      382015 380018 381022 384017 389011 397009 404008 410003
      412998
 0.50 395862 395860 395858 394856 394854 393853 392853 391854
      390854 389856 389858 389859 388861 388863 388865 388868
      389870 389872 389873 391872 392872 393871 394869 394867
      394865 394864 395862
 0.50 295820 294816 293815 289812 286810 283812 279814 274816
      269816 264817 259819 257823 255828 256835 257840 260845
      265847 274845 278843 281840 287831 289827 292822 295820
 0.50 294083 292081 290079 288079 287078 283077 281076 278075
      275075 277078 279079 281080 285082 288082 290083 294083
 1.00 497090 490084 485084 481087 476094 470098 467102 466110
      461116 468122 472120 475116 480110 485102 492096 497090
 1.00 281827 281824 279822 276820 270821 266819 262821 259825
      259830 260836 262839 266840 272839 275836 277834 279830
      281827
 1.50 276824 274823 270823 268822 265821 263823 262827 262831
      264835 266836 269835 271834 273832 275830 276826 276824
 2.00 273828 274826 272824 270825 269824 267824 266825 265825
      264827 264829 265831 265832 267832 269831 271829 273828
      273828

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.