Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 032228
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
627 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 04/0000 UTC THRU JUL 07/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...22Z UPDATE...

FOR THE FINAL DAY 1 QPF PACKAGE FROM THE DAY SHIFT...CONCENTRATED
EFFORTS ON UPDATING THE FIRST 6 HOUR PERIOD BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS IN THE HRRR. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO DROP THE AXIS OF
0.50 INCH AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH IN
MISSISSIPPI...TAKING IT AWAY FROM THE HEAVILY FLOODED AREAS AROUND
TUPELO / NEW ALBANY...WHERE A TRAINED SPOTTER HAD MEASURED 9.95
INCHES OF RAIN AS AN EVENT TOTAL. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS OVER
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MODERATE MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY
AND A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
INFLOW SHOULD GIVE THE STORMS SCATTERED CHARACTER. THE HRRR AND
12Z WRF-ARW GAVE SOME USEFUL SIGNAL IN THIS AREA...THOUGH IT WAS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING MORE THAN 0.10 INCH AREAL AVERAGE
GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE EVENT. -BURKE


...MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC...

SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE BROAD EASTERN UNTIED STATES TROUGH
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. FOR THE MOST PART...THE
WPC QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...WITH EQUAL
PORTIONS OF THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM/12Z ARW/NMMB USED TO BETTER
DELINEATE THE POSITION OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL THIS
EVENING.

CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST SOUTH OF A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TX ACROSS THE
AR/NORTHERN MS/NORTHERN AL/GA...ALONG AN AXIS OF 2.00+ INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST QPF EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MS/NORTHERN AL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GA/EASTERN
TN. MOISTURE (IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES) AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AS A FIRST SHORT WAVE CROSSES NEAR THE FRONT...AND
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH THAT TIME. THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF QPF SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH MOST OTHER MODELS FURTHER NORTH (INCLUDING THE
MAJORITY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE). THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
QPF WAS PLACED CLOSER TO THE POSITION OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z REGIONAL
GEM...FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE FLOW TRACKS FROM KS/MO ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC BETWEEN 4/06Z-4/12Z...WHICH
SPINS UP A SURFACE WAVE OVER NORTHERN WV AROUND 4/06Z. THE 20 TO
30 KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT...ALLOWING 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER TO RIDE UP AND OVER
THE WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A
MOISTENING COLUMN...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES BECOME MORE
IMPORTANT WITH TIME. AN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...A LONG AXIS OF 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS
STRETCHED FROM EASTERN TN ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH MUCH WV INTO
CENTRAL PA. THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW FAVORS THE TERRAIN FOR HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS PLACE THEIR QPF AXIS HERE.


...WESTERN STATES...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST STATES...MAINLY AFTER 4/00Z. A LOW LEVEL EAST SOUTHEAST
FROM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRANSPORTS 1.25 PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR IN NM...WHILE THE MONSOONAL FLOW BRINGS 1.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR IN SOUTHERN AZ. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED MARGINAL TO
LOCALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHICH APPEARS TO PEAK AFTER 4/00Z
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM. WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE MID
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COULD PROVIDE LOCAL SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 4/00Z...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR IN THE
GUIDANCE WHEN/WHERE THIS OCCURS. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR COULD RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES...BUT LOCATING THESE
PLACES IS PROBLEMATIC.

THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE RUNNING
WESTWARD AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE COULD
SPARK AN MCS ACROSS NM/AZ. NAM SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS AN MCS WILL FORM OVER WEST CENTRAL NM/EAST CENTRAL AZ
AFTER 4/02Z...WHICH TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS AZ THROUGH 4/09Z. WHILE
MOST MODEL QPF OUTPUT ACROSS THIS AREA IS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR COULD RESULT IN HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES WITH THE MCS.

OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NV AND NORTHERN CA...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 1.25 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN THREE
AND FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) WILL FUEL SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AND MID LEVEL
DRYING. THE CONVECTION PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY SCATTERED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE THROUGH NORTHERN NV. WHILE BASIN AVERAGE QPF SHOULD
RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES...LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD EASILY
EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE...PARTICULARLY WHERE TRAINING OCCURS IN THE
MID LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW.


DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

TO START DAY 2 A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HELP
TRIGGER CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT..FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AIDED BY ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF AN UPPER JET...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF A MODERATELY TO HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUMP ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AS
HIGH AS 1.75 TO 2.25 INCHES NORTHWARD...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 SD
ABOVE AVERAGE. MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST T NORTHEAST
AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS...BUT GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET..WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE OFF TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. GIVEN THE STRONGLY FORCED
SETUP AT THE LOW AND UPPER LEVELS...THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS AND SLOWER MOTION...AN AREA OF HEAVY
RAINFALL SEEMS PROBABLE. FFG VALUES ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST QPF ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT CURRENT QPF FORECAST
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HIGHER QPF MAGNITUDE AND
LOCATION...THUS HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THUS DECIDED TO ISSUE
A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN SD...SOUTHEAST
ND AND WESTERN MN.

WPC QPF WAS SHIFTED A DECENT AMOUNT NORTHWARD ON DAY 3 IN THIS
REGION GIVEN RECENT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRENDS. OVERALL THE
WPC FORECAST REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS POSITION OF THE HEAVIER
RAIN...WITH SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC/UKMET/NAM ALL
CONSIDERED ALONG WITH VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE GFS WAS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND THE UKMET THE FURTHEST NORTH. THIS IS
IN GENERAL A LOW PREDICTABLE PATTERN...WITH ROUGHLY 6 DIFFERENT
VORTICITY LOBES CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST CANADA INFLUENCING THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. THUS FURTHER
MODEL AND FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS ARE PROBABLE.



...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF
CONVECTION CROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS  AND OKLAHOMA...WHICH
SHOULD MOVE WITH THE MEAN WIND AND CORFIDI VECTORS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. OVERALL
AGREEMENT ON THIS SETUP WAS PRETTY LOW...AS WHILE WE DO HAVE A
SUBTLY SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW AND AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ORGANIZATION IS LOW. QPF SPREAD
WAS PRETTY HIGH WITH THE NAM MUCH LESS IMPRESSED WITH THE SETUP.
WPC OPTED TO GO WITH A CONCERNS APPROACH...WHICH LOWERED AMOUNTS
AND SHIFTED THE AXIS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASE ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION AN AXIS OF THIS
CONVECTION AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. USUALLY A SITUATION
IN WHICH THE HIGHER RES MODELS TEND TO HANDLE BETTER...SO AS THIS
TIME PERIOD BECOMES COVERED BY MORE AVAILABLE HI RES
GUIDANCE...THE GENERAL CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION SHOULD INCREASE.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TO SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST IS A POSSIBILITY.


...APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...

WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN POTION OF THE COUNTRY THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IN DAY 2/3 WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST ACROSS AL/GA AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO MID
ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE LOCATION OVER THE CONUS...MODELS SHOULD BE
BEGINNING TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
WPC FOLLOWED A GENERAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS...WITH
ONLY THE NAM IGNORED GIVEN ITS POSITION AS AN EXTREME OUTLIER WITH
REGARDS TO QPF. IN GENERAL THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC HAD THE SAME
GENERAL IDEA. THE WPC QPF FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT WEST AND
INCREASE IN THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BY DAY 3 ACROSS NV/VA AND PORTIONS
OF WV BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE WAS MORE
SUPPRESSED AND SOUTHEAST...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE TREND AND AGREEMENT OF THE VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...FELT THE ADJUSTMENT WEST WAS NEEDED. IN
FACT DAY 2 QPF MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF (NOT AVAILABLE AT THE FAY 2
TIME) TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS.

...SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY
WEAKENING UPPER HIGH...AS WELL AS ALONG THE TERRAIN WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE GREATEST.  RELIED UPON A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH TO GENERATE QPF.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

HAYES/CHENARD

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 566021 567000 568980 568960 567939 567919 566906 565896
      564885 561876 558870 555864 551862 545860 535861 525883
      523891 521899 521908 519917 517926 516938 516948 516954
      515957 515966 514971 511972 505972 499972 489966 481960
      459947 454942 457936 459930 459920 459911 457904 457896
      458889 461876 464862 465851 464842 462834 458830 453832
      452838 446851 444857 441863 438875 440880 442885 445892
      446900 446923 443924 440921 438912 436909 436905 434902
      436897 435880 432878 429878 428880 429897 429904 431907
      431911 435923 448952 466965 469969 472976 474982 477986
      479992 481997 487006 491015 492017 491022 487028 484035
      477044 476064 475073 478077 482080 486078 491076 494074
      495079 496088 496110 496121 496133 494137 491137 488130
      478123 470129 469133 475135 481137 485139 488145 490150
      493153 497154 502158 515166 520170 523174 528178 531173
      533166 534156 534147 534139 534123 534117 534112 537107
      546096 553083 557069 561051 566021
 0.01 526708 526701 524697 523690 521686 519681 516678 509671
      506671 503674 498682 495691 492703 487722 485727 483732
      476739 474747 472758 472763 469767 467772 463776 461780
      460784 459795 454818 455823 457825 463820 467812 470808
      476806 478809 479816 479829 480836 482841 486844 490842
      495835 497833 502832 506831 509828 511815 514804 517796
      519785 521779 523773 526763 528753 528738 528732 526724
      526716 526708
 0.01 483022 483019 480018 478016 475016 471016 469016 467018
      466021 466023 468026 471029 472029 476029 478027 480027
      481024 483022
 0.01 457729 453721 448712 445705 439699 428685 419669 413657
      408650 404646 399647 386651 373665 370668 366673 362681
      360685 357689 350694 346712 344721 343731 343737 341740
      338748 330767 327777 326787 325794 323797 317800 311802
      298803 288801 256793 247794 239797 233802 235805 238808
      241813 242819 251823 257822 261822 268827 276830 287832
      296835 298836 299840 299845 300848 297852 294855 292859
      290868 288877 285886 285892 284897 284918 285923 286929
      289941 290954 293962 292967 291975 292981 295979 300968
      302964 307960 312956 317954 323956 329971 333978 336981
      337986 341006 343017 348030 349032 348035 346039 342038
      335038 331040 329043 324043 322049 323055 327062 329068
      330073 311070 302069 299067 293065 277059 269055 263051
      244041 238041 236047 234054 237058 248072 254078 260084
      266088 272094 286104 289106 286108 287110 290115 294117
      297118 300122 303125 307128 309130 312131 315129 319121
      320118 323118 327118 333116 336116 338118 339125 340129
      348134 354136 358136 360135 363133 366136 375140 381145
      386139 386135 387130 395127 400121 406118 409114 411108
      411100 410095 407091 407085 408082 411078 413076 416076
      421079 424085 425090 427097 424102 418107 423112 427112
      431114 439113 443114 447117 448118 452116 458111 460108
      462103 455098 454091 454086 453078 451074 449068 446065
      443059 444053 446039 447032 450029 457020 461013 459010
      455007 450007 446008 441009 438010 433011 429009 409026
      402021 397020 392018 385013 378017 376019 374015 373008
      372005 370004 366001 365989 360978 358968 355958
 0.01 355958 361951 365947 365938 363925 366912 368899 372887
      376883 379880 382874 386868 386862 388857 389851 393844
      403825 408815 414805 417800 421798 430790 434787 436782
      439777 444771 448763 452750 457729
 0.01 422233 420226 423215 426207 425203 421199 417198 414195
      412188 410178 410172 411164 414160 412150 412140 411136
      406136 403134 401137 395139 389143 387147 388151 392153
      393158 391163 387163 378164 377167 381170 385177 386183
      383184 380182 375180 369179 362177 357180 357185 360188
      366195 378204 394214 408220 410222 409224 405225 397227
      394228 393231 398237 405241 411243 415242 419240 422233
 0.01 312156 311156 310154 310153 308153 307155 308156 309157
      311156 312156
 0.25 564930 564923 562913 560900 558892 554888 552886 549887
      545893 542904 537916 536925 537935 538944 538950 536954
      531963 526973 522987 514999 511004 509009 507015 507024
      509032 512036 518038 522039 524040 525043 523049 520062
      515075 513081 514086 515095 516123 515132 511138 509145
      512152 518160 521162 523158 524147 527137 527129 524115
      526102 530089 536075 546052 549047 552039 556023 559007
      558998 557990 562952 564930
 0.25 520737 520725 517711 514705 508702 503707 498714 496721
      494731 491738 487747 485753 482757 482761 490774 494779
      499783 505786 509784 511781 515763 518742 520737
 0.25 433766 428724 425714 422704 419702 416702 407702 401706
      398711 395717 394725 391732 385738 375751 371757 370759
      368759 364759 361761 357766 355771 355774 357784 360793
      358803 354817 351822 347828 336837 332844 327850 321855
      313856 309856 307858 307862 308867 314884 316894 316900
      314908 314918 320931 321940 324948 328956 332963 337968
      339969 343969 344962 342953 342947 342941 342935 343933
      345933 352935 353934 352927 351925 347924 344923 344919
      348905 351897 354888 357879 359872 367860 373848 380834
      389819 398811 408802 413798 418792 429778 432772 433766
 0.25 399206 399201 397196 396193 392190 385191 381191 378189
      372184 368183 363183 366187 372191 377196 384201 390206
      395207 399206
 0.25 385706 385700 385695 383692 379691 372690 367695 362700
      358707 357714 353722 354732 352740 350747 347754 347759
      351759 354752 359747 360742 361738 359732 363729 365726
      366723 370721 377718 382713 385706
 0.25 380078 378070 377066 374064 372061 376059 379055 374050
      365049 349048 343046 340045 336046 332051 330054 330058
      336062 342065 346066 349065 354062 357064 358067 358073
      360078 362080 368085 379080 380078
 0.25 372073 371071 371070 369069 368068 367068 366068 367070
      369072 369073 371075 372073
 0.25 355118 353113 350109 347105 347099 348086 349076 338073
      330079 328082 327090 328094 331099 341104 347112 349117
      354118 355118
 0.25 309089 309084 306081 299076 295074 289075 281076 276076
      272074 267074 267076 274082 277084 281086 287091 294098
      297099 303100 305097 307091 309089
 0.25 303821 301817 299816 294813 289812 284810 278809 271810
      267812 266817 270820 275824 281824 289823 296822 299823
      303821
 0.50 558958 559944 559927 557916 556908 554905 550909 545920
      544930 545947 544957 542963 540968 536976 533987 531997
      531002 532007 537011 541020 544019 546015 545006 548999
      551989 554979 556967 558958
 0.50 544030 544028 544027 543027 541027 541028 540030 539032
      539033 539035 539038 538040 539042 540043 541043 541041
      542038 543035 544033 544031 544030
 0.50 509747 509745 509743 507743 506745 506747 505748 504751
      503753 502754 502757 503759 504761 505763 507762 508761
      508758 509755 509753 509750 509749 509747
 0.50 425774 426770 425764 423758 417745 413739 417733 418728
      418724 416720 413718 409719 405723 403730 405736 396746
      393749 392753 393761 393769 393773 391775 388776 381774
      372765 367764 363766 361769 361774 365780 369784 373788
      377791 379795 377799 372803 361814 356824 353829 349834
      344838 339843 333856 325866 323870 322880 323917 324935
      325941 327948 330954 334958 337956 336950 337941 337923
      340908 346895 349888 351879 355866 357860 360854 364850
      368844 376830 391812 400802 411793 419785 425774
 0.50 395203 395200 391197 390195 386194 385193 383193 379193
      379195 381197 384199 386201 389203 392204 395203
 0.50 347061 347059 346059 344061 346062 347061
 0.50 342096 340093 340092 338092 337093 336093 336095 336097
      336098 338098 340098 342096
 0.50 336058 338057 340056 340054 341052 340051 339051 338052
      338053 336055 334056 332058 334058 336058
 0.50 305087 304084 303082 300080 298078 294078 292079 290083
      292086 295088 296090 297092 299093 301091 303089 305087
 1.00 417769 417766 416765 413766 412769 405776 400781 394787
      389794 387798 387802 393797 396794 400792 408787 411785
      414781 417771 417769
 1.00 359841 359839 357837 357836 355835 353836 352837 351837
      350839 350840 349842 349844 349846 350848 352847 354846
      355846 356845 357844 358843 359841 359841
 1.00 347875 347870 347865 346862 346856 345849 342850 340854
      334867 328881 327887 329892 328898 327905 327917 328927
      330935 332934 332929 333917 336900 338893 342886 345881
      347875
 1.50 342878 342873 341870 339869 337869 335871 334875 333878
      332880 331885 332889 333892 334890 336887 338885 340883
      341880 342878
 1.50 331906 330904 329903 329904 329906 330908 331906
 2.00 338878 338877 337878 338878 338878

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 535957 535949 533944 530935 528931 525926 523924 520926
      516929 514930 512928 511916 508894 506887 504882 500884
      498888 496892 494894 493892 491886 488891 478908 471915
      465920 455935 445952 440961 435965 430966 426964 417963
      410961 405960 400959 397956 389950 388943 388936 384929
      378922 374919 371916 364907 363902 364898 367887 368878
      376870 378866 379863 382856 383850 383844 382831 382823
      383816 386805 387800 387793 386786 387780 384767 388759
      392750 395745 397743 400742 404739 409738 414739 415734
      419721 424715 427711 430707 434699 436691 437682 436674
      433669 429666 425664 416664 407662 398661 394661 392664
      386673 379681 369695 360712 352726 347732 341738 327751
      323764 320769 316771 306776 297779 280786 272789 267791
      263789 260788 256789 251793 248797 245804 245808 249806
      253805 257805 256808 256814 257818 255822 257830 257842
      260851 264864 270874 280889 285896 288904 289911 291916
      295924 299931 301935 304936 307938 308944 307949 307952
      309957 313958 317955 320956 324959 326965 335971 339973
      342979 348987 353994 358999 373008 383025 385029 389030
      394026 402024 398032 391040 379039 360031 357029 354030
      348035 344039 340041 333042 329044 320041 317039 315035
      314029 310028 303027 299024 296021 293021 285024 284032
      287039 296055 294060 290063 284073 281080 279092 282103
      285107 287112 289115 294117 299122 306128 311131 315130
      326131 331131 335130 338128 343130 347135 351139 354138
      359137 362134 365131 367129 370130 375132 380136 383140
      386144 389148 390150 388152 382158 385161 386166 384172
      381173 374177
 0.01 374177 370181 363181 361184 365187 385204 403219 406224
      400224 398227 397229 399232 400232 422234 429223 431213
      433210 432207 428194 425189 424183 423180 423174 426166
      428161 427153 426144 428134 430127 433122 437119 438117
      441118 444126 447131 461149 465154 470158 474154 477152
      479156 484167 486171 490169 497170 501165 504158 510157
      511149 510146 510141 508127 507119 508109 506088 505081
      500079 498063 497054 497049 499045 506034 512021 514017
      517011 523997 529984 532970 535957
 0.01 486691 485684 483681 483677 480670 477666 470658 466657
      464655 461656 453663 444671 441675 439680 440684 439687
      440697 442711 442713 440716 438718 434720 440723 444729
      440733 438736 438738 441743 441750 440754 437755 437760
      441757 444752 448749 450744 450740 452738 460731 464726
      464720 465715 467713 472711 476707 479702 482700 484698
      485697 486691 486691
 0.25 520960 520951 519949 516949 513949 509947 507939 503927
      495919 489908 486908 485911 482918 477930 474935 469939
      466942 462947 455958 453964 452971 452978 454986 457992
      463991 468990 475990 477992 479997 480002 483009 488012
      492013 496010 500005 503999 507993 510990 513985 516978
      518969 520960
 0.25 499146 500142 499137 498128 496123 494115 492101 489086
      487079 484075 479076 475081 474088 472098 474114 476129
      480134 483140 485146 491149 496148 499146
 0.25 457047 457045 457042 456039 455039 453037 452036 450035
      449036 448037 447039 447041 447043 448045 448046 450047
      450049 451049 453050 455049 456048 457047
 0.25 445041 446039 446036 445035 443034 442034 440036 440038
      441040 441041 443042 445041 445041
 0.25 437045 436042 435040 434040 433039 431039 430040 430042
      431043 431044 432046 434047 436046 437045
 0.25 405126 405123 404121 403121 403118 403117 401116 401115
      399115 397115 396117 397119 397121 398122 398123 400125
      402126 404126 405126
 0.25 406077 407072 406068 402064 396060 394058 389059 384060
      379059 373057 368052 365050 363052 363059 359065 367067
      370068 372071 372076 374079 378083 381085 381090 382094
      384095 387095 388091 386087 391084 394080 396083 400084
      404081 406077
 0.25 394101 395098 394096 394095 392094 391093 390093 391096
      391098 392100 393100 393101 394101
 0.25 398975 398971 396968 391965 386963 383957 379951 372947
      363938 354930 347921 345913 343904 342897 343888 345882
      349877 357870 361864 364856 369842 375830 376821 375816
      373806 375797 372788 372779 373772 372764 370758 366754
      362751 355753 345765 335788 332798 322809 319814 316821
      319827 317833 310843 307846 305850 305859 302874 302882
      303890 302900 306908 310914 312920 330936 339944 350953
      358976 362981 368984 377985 383988 388987 392984 396980
      398975
 0.25 388999 387997 385996 383996 382997 382999 381999 381000
      383001 383002 385003 386002 387001 388999
 0.25 367965 368963 366963 365963 364964 363965 364965 366965
      367965
 0.25 348088 345079 347075 347070 347066 345064 342067 334073
      323073 318074 312076 304080 299081 296080 292084 290088
      289092 290096 292098 296101 298104 303114 306118 309120
      316121 320117 320111 319107 315103 313099 312093 312090
      313088 320087 324085 334090 336095 340098 348088
 0.25 326825 326823 325822 324823 323823 322825 321825 322825
      324826 325826 326825
 0.25 297819 296815 295813 290810 284808 278807 274807 273810
      269812 265815 267821 268823 272824 277824 281823 289823
      295822 297819
 0.50 509975 508966 506955 504952 503948 503941 501937 497932
      494930 489931 484934 478939 474944 469951 466958 467965
      469967 474967 478969 479972 479979 482987 484992 486994
      489997 492998 497995 502989 506983 508980 509975
 0.50 493135 494129 492125 490116 488108 487098 486093 484088
      482086 479087 477090 476096 477107 478117 482125 486130
      489132 490137 493135
 0.50 390974 388972 386970 384969 380969 377969 375970 372972
      371974 373976 375976 378979 380979 384979 386979 389977
      390974
 0.50 365766 364762 359761 356766 355770 353775 352778 351784
      353788 358790 362789 363785 364780 364775 365769 365766
 0.50 367824 367818 365814 359812 345822 342828 343832 345835
      336851 328853 323853 319855 316858 314862 313873 311883
      311890 313901 315911 317915 320918 327921 334927 339933
      344939 350943 357948 361951 365949 363946 361943 356938
      350931 344925 335912 333903 331889 332884 334880 337873
      341870 345868 353864 356856 357851 356846 351839 357833
      362829 366827 367824
 0.50 339091 339090 339089 338087 338084 337083 337082 336080
      336079 335077 334077 333077 332078 332079 332080 333082
      334083 334084 335086 335087 336088 337090 338091 339091
      339091


24HR QP VT 07/00Z
 0.01 517910 513879 513871 511864 510851 508844 507835 505832
      501831 494827 491830 487831 482835 478838 476842 472849
      466856 458864 451870 437881 427888 424889 418890 407891
      403893 400892 383884 374880 368876 361869 359865 361859
      368854 372851 375847 381841 384832 386828 389826 397822
      401822 406820 413814 416810 415803 414790 412785 412778
      410771 407766 396755 391749 389745 386742 380738 374733
      372731 369732 364735 358736 353739 343742 339744 336747
      327753 320759 314765 307771 291782 278792 258799 253800
      250802 246807 244811 246815 243824 250828 253830 258830
      262830 264832 264837 268844 278859 290872 292875 294878
      294882 292892 293897 296900 302901 306904 317916 323923
      331927 341939 347942 351945 355954 357958 358964 355973
      350980 345984 341986 335991 329997 325002 318007 304015
      299016 292016 287017 283020 277026 276029 278032 286039
      289042 294044 299045 302047 303053 302060 300065 301069
      301073 298073 292072 290075 290081 288095 293103 298110
      302113 306116 314120 319121 323123 331126 335129 337132
      341135 343135 357137 359138 365138 371139 374141 379143
      380147 382153 382160 379162 379165 381168 382172 381175
      379178 375181 371181 364181 363184 364187 370194 377199
      384203 389205 395205 397203 399198 400190 399185 398180
      399177 401177 420151 421143 422138 421136 418135 416139
      412143 408144 402139 398129 397127 399125 405126 410125
      413127 420124 423124 425130 430138 432141 435145 440144
      458140 463129 463124 459122 455120 452117 454115 457112
      461110 466103 469100 467097 465093 464086 465080 467075
      468062 468054 467049 467043 464037 463030 465023 469015
      471010 473009 483025
 0.01 483025 487033 491040 496060 502066 505068 508068 511058
      513053 511050 512045 510040 507029 506024 506017 507003
      509992 508985 505983 499978 494972 501954 503943 505932
      514918 517910
 0.01 428211 426206 424203 425198 424194 422190 422183 423176
      421173 418173 417180 416184 415189 412191 408193 405196
      403200 402207 402212 403215 405216 409214 414207 419207
      423210 428211
 0.01 378107 377103 375100 376095 374091 371084 369081 365081
      363084 364088 367095 365098 366103 368105 368108 365109
      363108 361107 359109 363111 365114 370114 372111 378107
 0.01 359107 357105 355104 354102 352102 351104 352105 352106
      353107 355108 357108 359107
 0.25 507893 506882 504874 501866 497861 492858 486855 481853
      478854 475857 467868 462873 458876 449884 439894 430903
      420910 414914 407915 399916 393916 387916 382920 376932
      375944 373953 371961 367967 363972 359977 356983 353991
      351997 344008 344014 345018 351022 354022 355020 356016
      358014 370012 377010 382011 388007 392002 395997 400992
      407989 410990 412994 414999 417007 418016 420023 424028
      429033 431035 435037 441035 452029 456025 460019 467007
      472995 480982 486967 491953 502924 504916 505908 507893
 0.25 442096 440091 438088 433087 430084 427083 425084 423089
      424093 427098 429102 432105 437105 439100 441098 442096
 0.25 415064 414057 412054 406049 390045 380043 375037 368034
      359033 355033 352036 348044 349048 351052 356058 364061
      371066 377071 383071 387072 388077 391080 393079 397076
      400076 406071 412068 415064
 0.25 400783 399779 397776 394772 390767 388760 384756 379756
      374754 367755 360758 355760 350762 345766 342772 339775
      330781 325786 322790 318801 316806 314809 308812 302811
      295811 289810 284809 279812 274816 277820 287823 294824
      297828 302840 305850 309856 310862 307875 305877 304881
      306886 311888 317889 327893 359917 359909 358903 356897
      351893 342887 339883 338876 337868 337861 338848 340842
      342837 348833 353832 365827 371825 375821 380819 384818
      389814 393810 396803 397796 398788 400783
 0.25 388199 386196 385194 383193 382195 382197 382198 384199
      386200 388199
 0.25 323111 319109 314107 313103 312098 309094 307091 304092
      303097 304102 306104 310107 313111 316114 320115 322112
      323111
 0.50 502908 503892 502884 500880 491863 488861 483860 475864
      470870 464876 457881 450887 439899 427913 416925 412929
      411934 410938 412943 414947 414950 413956 414961 427974
      424999 424014 425019 429022 436024 445022 453018 456015
      458012 461002 466994 476979 484962 492942 499922 501915
      502908
 0.50 431094 431092 430090 429089 428089 427089 428091 429093
      431094 431094
 0.50 404063 402059 399056 395054 390054 387054 384051 376046
      369043 364043 360045 358047 358051 361056 365057 370058
      375060 384062 393066 403065 404063
 0.50 392787 392782 390780 386775 376769 371764 368763 365764
      361769 357772 353779 351785 348793 349799 355812 359816
      364816 371812 376808 387805 390799 392792 392787
 0.50 394970 393967 390967 386968 376972 366975 362978 360983
      357988 356994 355000 354007 358007 362003 369996 374995
      377992 384986 390977 394970
 0.50 327829 326828 324827 322828 321829 321832 322834 322836
      323836 324836 326833 327831 327829 327829
 1.00 496911 496904 495899 493891 491884 488874 486871 483870
      477875 469885 458894 452898 446899 441905 437911 434913
      432916 430923 439934 435941 433947 433968 433973 431977
      431985 432994 434003 437009 443009 448005 452998 456991
      460986 468975 469970 470965 470960 471955 477941 484928
      491919 494915 496911
 1.00 384786 383783 379783 376785 374787 373789 371790 369793
      368797 370799 372799 375797 377794 379792 381791 383788
      384786
 1.50 483887 483883 480884 478885 476887 474890 472892 471895
      471900 472902 473907 475909 477907 479904 480900 481897
      482894 483889 483887
 1.50 459947 460939 459935 455932 450931 445940 442949 440959
      437971 438978 441980 445983 446988 447990 450988 452986
      455981 456976 455964 456959 457954 459947

$$





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