Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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430
FXUS04 KWBC 220700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 22/1200 UTC THRU MAR 23/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...WESTERN U.S....

THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING
WILL ULTIMATELY SPLIT INTO DISTINCT NORTHERN/SOUTHERN COMPONENTS
LATE WED-WED NIGHT...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE FLATTENS WHILE
THE SOUTHERN STREAM CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION AS IT DROPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO MAKE
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE PERIOD (THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST)... IN TURN PUSHING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME (AXIS
OF 1-1.25" PW VALUES) SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. IN THE WAKE...MOISTURE ANOMALIES WILL BE MORE MODEST
THAN OTHERWISE (+1 TO +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA...THE SOUTHWEST...AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND
4 CORNERS REGION). THIS ALONG WITH THE INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR GENERALLY
MODERATE OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS CA EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.50-1.00" ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND SOUTHERN CA RANGES...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST MOGOLLON RIM IN
AZ AND ACROSS THE WASATCH-UINTA MOUNTAINS IN UT. PER THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5" ARE EXPECTED.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 560096 555100 551099 541095 537089 534083 532077 533059
      533050 530047 527043 525038 522026 518013 513004 510999
      507997 500991 497988 493983 490977 490970 492965 496962
      499962 501960 501958 494948 492943 491937 491927 482922
      473917 466918 462916 458915 456912 453908 453901 455896
      458891 464890 468892 473892 477894 487894 488891 491891
      498889 507887 518886 526888 529888 530890 536890 544895
      551900 556908 561919 564933 565940 566946 566955 567963
      567979 568986 569991
 0.01 485614 497659 499668 500677 499682 497687 493695 488701
      479706 470710 467712 463714 456720 449726 443733 429731
      432728 435727 438728 439726 438721 439717 442713 444710
      447709 451706 454701 448694 443689 438683 437678 435677
      432682 429690 423696 415696 408693 404691 400688 394685
      389679 388672 391667 396661 402657 412653 430641 438639
      444641 450627
 0.01 536212 535197 535189 532184 527172 522164 510151 506148
      502146 497143 494139 488133 481129 475126 471125 471128
      472132 471135 468134 466132 464136 460138 456142 451151
      447154 444154 443157 439160 435162 427166 423169 424171
      423173 420171 416172 418184 416190 412191 408193 405193
      399189 393191 389189 391185 397181 403177 408171 411166
      414165 418163 422159 429132 436126 439122 442120 445122
      448124 451124 459120 462115 463109 464101 467097 470094
      473093 474090 471085 472078 474074 472063 469052 467042
      464035 459028 456025 452020 449017 448014 448009 448001
      450998 453000 464001 471998 474992 474985 473981 471975
      466967 460962 452956 440947 428939 421935 417935 413933
      412925 410918 408915 404912 400910 393910 385914 381916
      380921 382929 386933 388939 389954 385972 387976 389977
      393979 396979 401977 403975 407968 409957 412943 414949
      416955 421966 427975 433981 438988 442991 443995 441997
      436005 435021 433032 431037 429040 425044 425049 420058
      418061 415061 413059 405058 398058 393064 389065 387063
      385065 387068 386071 383071 380069 376066 373062 368061
      364063 374076 375087 375094 369094 358093 352099 350102
      346100 344095 341093 338093 336095 336103 332105 328104
      325102 323104 319109 318114 329117 333120 334122 333127
      332132 329135 325137 321140 319140 320145 325146 330145
      336146 340149 339152 337154 334157 329156 321156 312156
      308155 303157 300158 299160 299165 303172 306175 310176
      320179 324181 330183 333187 335193 338202 339206 342210
      347213 349216 355224 363230 369234 373236 377236 385237
      393240 412246 421249 426250 430250 451251 461251 470258
      470264 468270 464279 459290 457296 455303 454310 455314
      458316 460315 463310 468304 473296 475293 478292 482294
      485293 491288 493284 496282 501287 508289 512289 516284
 0.01 524261 521253 519244 516236 514229 510221 506214 503210
      505204 508204 514210 517212 521213 523213 527214 529217
      532216 536212
 0.01 432776 432771 431766 431762 430757 428755 426755 423756
      421758 421761 422766 422770 423773 425777 427779 429779
      431778 432776
 0.01 380711 379700 378695 376692 375687 373686 369680 366677
      364676 360676 354676 347677 343679 341681 336685 333691
      330697 325709 322719 315731 308742 305747 303752 301758
      300764 301774 295775 293776 291779 287784 283785 276786
      270787 265790 260794 259797 258800 259803 262805 268807
      273809 276809 276814 283821 287823 288826 289831 291833
      295830 296827 299829 307837 314843 322855 328859 329856
      325845 321840 321836 319834 318829 317826 318823 318818
      317813 315811 311813 304813 300810 305800 306793 306788
      310787 316784 321780 326779 333779 340778 344775 349771
      354766 361755 366746 372734 378721 380711
 0.01 364164 365160 364157 360159 356161 353164 350166 348172
      351176 354178 360179 361174 361170 363166 364164
 0.01 368938 368925 366917 361898 357890 355881 348866 344862
      342862 342873 343886 345895 345902 347906 348917 349921
      344923 340928 339932 339937 345943 352943 355943 357947
      365947 368941 368938
 0.25 553004 553990 553979 550968 545960 539954 534953 530954
      529957 529960 531965 535973 539981 543992 546002 549007
      550008 552006 553004
 0.25 541035 541033 541030 541029 539028 539030 539032 539033
      540035 541035 541035
 0.25 516273 518266 519258 516249 511234 508225 504218 496208
      492205 487204 480206 470211 456216 454217 453221 458226
      463227 466225 472223 475224 478222 482223 486225 488228
      486233 483234 482232 480229 477226 474226 472228 466233
      462233 459234 454236 461239 469244 474249 477256 477259
      477263 472274 470282 473282 475280 479274 482271 485269
      491271 503281 507282 511278 516273
 0.25 526193 525186 523181 518180 514176 512173 509173 503175
      504181 507185 513189 516194 521197 524198 525195 526193
 0.25 486645 483633 482631 479631 476635 473637 468637 462640
      458642 455648 454653 451664 451672 452676 461672 469666
      479660 482655 484651 486645
 0.25 465162 465159 464159 463156 461158 460158 460159 459160
      458162 458165 459166 461166 462165 463164 464163 465162
 0.25 449222 448221 447220 445220 443220 442219 440219 440220
      441222 443223 444223 446224 446223 448222 449222
 0.25 453081 453074 453066 454062 453058 451057 448058 443064
      436067 433072 431078 428082 424083 419083 415085 410089
      401094 394098 391108 385113 379113 372112 366118 363119
      358119 351112 346111 344114 343126 342133 346136 350137
      361136 366136 371136 376138 379136 387132 389134 390138
      389141 390154 389156 386161 381167 381172 383174 389174
      393172 396169 401162 407157 412155 415153 415147 416142
      416138 418134 423127 434110 436106 437099 435095 435090
      438085 446085 451084 453081
 0.25 415220 406209 400206 395203 382195 371190 364185 358183
      352182 346180 344172 343168 340166 334165 327162 318160
      312163 311167 312169 317172 326174 332175 338177 341182
      344189 350194 355196 360199 367204 363208 359210 357213
      358217 364222 371224 376224 380222 387219 394219 399220
      405224 409226 412225 415220
 0.25 355712 354705 353702 347696 343696 340698 336705 330720
      325736 321745 316751 311756 309760 309765 311771 315772
      324769 327768 332766 337766 341764 346758 349751 353733
      355714 355712
 0.25 277799 275798 275799 277799 277799
 0.50 514264 515259 515256 513249 510238 505227 500218 496214
      490211 485211 480213 480216 481219 485222 489224 491229
      493235 496241 499244 501249 500253 498254 495249 491240
      489238 486238 482241 478230 475231 473232 471236 471239
      477247 480252 481259 482262 487263 492266 496270 500274
      502275 505274 514264
 0.50 464224 465221 466219 464217 463217 461218 459220 459222
      460224 461225 462225 464224 464224
 0.50 421114 417110 414108 414106 413101 411099 409097 406097
      403102 400106 396110 395115 397117 399122 402125 407123
      414123 418120 421114
 0.50 407220 404218 403216 402212 400210 397208 393207 390206
      386206 384208 384210 385213 389214 392215 396216 399217
      403216 404220 407220
 0.50 355189 356187 355186 353185 351185 350186 349186 348187
      348190 349190 351190 353190 354189 355189
 0.50 351724 350714 348707 346703 342703 339708 334720 330733
      324746 316755 313762 314766 316766 326759 335758 341755
      345748 347743 349736 350729 351724
 0.50 353122 354120 353117 352116 351116 349115 348116 348119
      348120 349121 350122 352122 353122
 0.50 333171 334169 334168 332167 332166 330166 329164 327163
      325163 323163 321163 320163 319164 318166 319168 319169
      321169 322169 324170 326170 328171 329172 331172 333171
      333171
 1.00 503241 503236 503233 502230 501227 499224 498221 495220
      494223 494226 494230 495233 497236 498240 500241 503241
 1.00 493253 492251 492250 491248 491247 490245 489244 488244
      487246 487249 488252 488253 490254 491255 493253

$$





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