Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 090844
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 AM EST SAT DEC 09 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 09/1200 UTC THRU DEC 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1


...MID ATLC/NORTHEAST...

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WELL OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF RAPIDLY NEWD
SHEARING LOWER MS/SE U.S. S/WV TROF AND DIGGING S/WV TROF THROUGH
THE MIDWEST/OH AND TN VALLEYS.  THE LOW IS GENLY EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACRS NOVA SCOTIA BY SUN MORNING.  MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE
ALONG WITH REASONABLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE SETTLED BACK FROM THE EARLIER
WWD TRENDS WITH THE QPF AMOUNTS.   HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ARE FCST TO
REMAIN OFF THE COAST WITH THE STGR LOW LEVEL MSTR FLOW ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE LOW TRACK..BUT WEAKER 7H-5H LIFT WELL WEST OF THE
SFC LOW TRACK WILL GENLY SUPPORT AN AXIS OF LIGHT TO MDT PCPN
AMOUNTS...MUCH OF IT AS SNOW GENLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR EAST
EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH CNTL/ERN MAINE THIS PD.  AGAIN ONLY MINOR
MASS FIELD AND QPF DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED PARTICULARLY BETWEEN THE
NAM/GFS/12Z ECMWF AND THEREFORE A GENLY BLEND OF THESE SOLNS WERE
GENLY FOLLOWED. FOR MORE DETAIL ON WINTER WEATHER..SEE QPFHSD
DISCUSSION.


...FLORIDA...

TSTMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PD
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA..BUT THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE
STATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO S/WV TROF SHEARING
NEWD/EWD ACRS THE SE STATES.  WITH AXIS OF 2" PWS FEEDING IN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF...EXPECT SOME MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO AFFECT THE SRN PORTION OF THE STATE THRU EARLY AFTN
BEFORE COOLER/DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.  LEANED A BIT
MORE TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF HI RES GUIDANCE HERE WITH AN AXIS OF
.50 TO 1+" RAINS.

...GREAT LAKES..OH VALLEY/CNTL AND SRN APLCNS...

MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF DIGGING S/WV TROF
THAT IS FCST TO DROP SEWD FROM THE MIDWEST THRU THE OH VALLEY/ERN
TN VALLEY REGION BY LATE SAT.  SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SNOWS
ACCOMPANYING THE ASSOCD SFC LOW THAR WILL TRACK ACRS LAKE MI EARLY
SAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AS STG COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD
QUEBEC PROV.  SNOW BANDS ACCOMPANYING THE MID/UPR S/WV ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CNTL/SRN APLCNS BY SAT NIGHT AIDED BY
INCREASING WLY/NWLY UPSLOPE CONDS.  PLEASE SEE QPFHSD DISCUSSION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.


DAYS 2/3...


...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST...

A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  THE
SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPERS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 0.25 INCHES AND
LESS.  THE FIRST ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.  LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH THE MAXIMUM QPF DEVELOPING
DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WITH MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES AND 0.50
TO 0.70 INCHES ... RESPECTIVELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.  A
SECONDARY MAXIMUM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.40
INCHES.  QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.

ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION PRODUCING GENERALLY 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  THE
MAXIMUM QPF WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH MAXIMUM QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.30 TO 0.45 INCHES ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  A SECONDARY MAXIMUM WILL DEVELOP
ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LAKE ERIE
WITH QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.35 INCHES.  WPC USED A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET FOR THE STARTING POINT FOR THE QPF
FORECAST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.  ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ... WPC USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM FOR THE STARTING
POINT OF THE MANUAL GRAPHIC.


SULLIVAN/ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 485614 489615 492618 495621 496626 498634 500645 502657
      501665 495679 485694 475710 472709 467710 461714 454718
      447724 436735 428745 419755 409764 404770 400777 394785
      393786 395788 400787 410786 420787 426782 429779 431776
      433767 432754 431752 432749 434746 436748 440752 443760
      444763 446762 447759 451755 458749 462747 465745 472743
      475745 477747 479750 480756 481764 480769 477778 475793
      472801 468808 460820 460830 460834 462836 474840 485851
      497863 502869 504873 506882 508890 508896 510900 510907
      508911 504916 499921 495917 490914 487910 483904 481901
      478903 467903 465906 462907 461900 462895 463889 462881
      458873 459867 461859 460854 457854 454863 449868 443872
      432876 424877 417876 408876 400876 390877 386877 382875
      379871 378864 375860 371860 366858 360859 357861 353861
      351859 353857 357850 362846 366840 364836 362835 357839
      354844 350846 348846 346842 347839 340834 335830 334819
      338811 340803 341798 338795 333795 328797 313803 300809
      295813 292818 287823 283828 278835 272841 267845 257847
      248849 242850 238849 230848 225843 223834 221824 220806
      219796 220789 220781 221778 224776 232773 231764 242753
      269733 282724 288720 293716 305708 315701 341680 349675
      357671 366668 372663 377655 384648
 0.01 467331 470331 472331 475330 477330 480330 482329 485328
      488328 490326 492326 494324 496323 498321 500319 502318
      505311 508298 512293 514285 518276 522264 522258 520254
      516243 512234 504227 500227 498232 497235 497239 496244
      489247 485251 481252 478255 476259 473262 469268 463273
      455277 449281 441287 435292 427297 420302 412305 410306
      411309
 0.01 440320 439319 437318 435316 434316 432316 430315 429316
 0.01 523997 522994 520993 518990 515988 513987 511988 512992
      513995 515997 516000 518002 520000 522999 523997
 0.01 410810 408808 406806 405806 403808 403809 401809 400811
      402813 403812 405812 407812 409812 410810
 0.01 394789 392787 391789 390790 391791 393790 394789
 0.25 473619 478626 483635 484647 484658 483664 481667 474677
      468684 462693 451704 449707 446711 444715 441717 433721
      429724 426728 421736 413744 406749 401755 396760 390765
      382770 376770 371768 362767 353769 336777 322784 306792
      298796 289802 282808 277813 267824 255835 251838 246840
      239841 235839 229832 227824 226814 227805 228795 231791
      236788 244784 251779 279763 287758 296751 294749 289750
      279753 271758 263761 259762 254761 251761 249759 249756
      252753 255750 264745 281735 295727 309719 325708 332703
      340696 343692 348690 355686 361681 366676 372670 380663
      388656 395649 406642
 0.25 514266 515258 514253 513247 511244 508243 505245 505252
      504260 499259 494257 490258 485258 480261 475270 472276
      469279 462285 456294 450302 445306 444310 447314 451314
      461313 468308 473312 478313 486313 492312 496309 501302
      505296 507290 509285 510279 511273 514266
 0.25 450814 447813 444814 440814 437814 435816 435818 437822
      439824 441825 444824 445822 446818 447816 450814
 0.25 436765 436763 436762 436763 436765 436766 436765
 0.25 440830 440829 438828 437830 438831 440830 440830
 0.25 427867 426862 424861 420860 419860 415859 412859 410859
      408860 408863 410866 412867 414868 417869 421869 424869
      427867
 0.25 383807 383806 382807 383807 383807
 0.50 465622 471626 474634 476645 475651 475654 471661 465668
      459675 453681 445693 436705 431710 423715 413728 402739
      397743 390746 382748 374751 364753 355758 331773 315782
      302790 290798 280806 256827 250831 244831 239831 234827
      231819 231809 235801 240795 246791 251788 263781 271778
      278774 290762 302754 312746 317740 322735 324730 324725
      321723 321719 326713 331709 342701 355691 370680 390660
      397654 405649 411645 419641 428637 437632
 0.50 505287 504278 502275 501271 497264 491260 485261 482262
      480266 479274 480279 482283 483286 485289 492294 499294
      502293 504289 505287
 0.50 417865 415864 414864 413866 414866 416866 417865
 1.00 496275 497273 496272 495270 495269 493268 491267 490267
      488265 487267 487270 488270 489271 490273 492273 493274
      494275 495276 496275
 1.00 459644 459642 458639 456639 455640 455642 454643 454646
      453648 454651 455651 456649 457648 458647 459645 459644
 1.00 450642 447636 445634 436640 424647 413654 395668 374684
      357697 347707 345712 348716 344726 337733 330742 320751
      304765 292772 290777 287783 287785 283789 282794 280796
      281798 291793 296789 302786 320775 331767 339759 354744
      361741 369739 374737 379732 387726 395719 405710 413701
      420692 428685 435675 442662 447653 449650 450647 450642
 1.00 279800 280798 279798 278799 279801 279800
 1.00 276803 275799 272798 265802 259805 253810 247813 243814
      241817 245823 249823 252822 258817 264813 269809 274805
      276803
 1.50 427662 426656 422656 415660 402669 389679 377690 371695
      366702 364705 364711 365719 368721 371720 379715 386710
      392706 397700 402693 408687 413682 420677 425669 427662

24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 510991 511981 511971 506956 502939 499932 496927 482902
      474890 477882 480880 482877 481868 479861 478849 478838
      477826 475818 472812 469808 464802 460795 458787 455780
      453779 449781 446784 443784 441780 441776 442767 444760
      446755 448751 452750 455745 458738 459734 459729 459724
      462723 465718 472705 475699 480694 480684 481680 480675
      475668 472665 469663 459664 453663 446665 436675 431680
      428683 422689 419692 415692 410696 407702 405710 403717
      401725 402730 404734 409733 412729 416728 418729 420726
      420722 418711 420708 423709 434705 440700 443692 443688
      445683 448682 450684 453689 455698 453701 449703 445704
      443707 440711 438718 438722 437725 435724 433727 431729
      429728 425732 429731 431734 435733 435736 426745 422746
      420745 418751 415755 412756 415757 417760 413765 414776
      407782 398791 388792 383798 380804 380808 382807 386805
      389807 398816 403821 404827 406827 412825 417828 421825
      424820 427804 431790 433790 435794 432802 432805 429807
      429812 430817 434824 433832 432837 430840 428841 426845
      422853 419855 418858 408864 407866 408868 409873 411876
      416891 420903 427917 427921 430925 433931 441942 445949
      449954 452959 453962 453968 456974 461977 467981 470983
      470987 472992 468994 465996 466000 468004 470006 473007
      479007 482009 485010 489010 492008 495007 497010 501017
      503020 505019 507003 510991
 0.01 463878 461874 459869 457864 455862 453860 450862 448865
      443866 441867 442870 445872 449874 452876 456879 459881
      462881 463878
 0.01 445836 444831 442829 440830 439832 437835 437840 436842
      436847 436852 439851 440849 442846 442844 443839 445836
 0.01 367815 364815 363817 361819 358821 356822 356826 357826
      359825 360828 362827 363823 364820 365818 367815
 0.25 488967 488964 487964 486963 485964 486966 487967 488967
 0.25 468856 469853 468851 468850 467848 466848 465851 465852
      465854 465856 465858 465861 466861 467860 468858 468856
      468856
 0.25 469878 469875 468873 467872 467871 466869 464868 464871
      464873 465876 466878 468880 469878
 0.25 456806 454801 451797 449797 446800 443804 441808 440813
      442817 446818 449820 454818 455813 455807 456806
 0.25 451848 451846 450845 449845 448848 449850 449851 450850
      451849 451848
 0.25 442757 442755 441752 441750 440748 438749 436750 435751
      433752 432754 432757 432759 432761 433764 434765 435766
      436766 438766 438765 439763 440762 441760 441759 442757
 0.25 431781 430775 427779 425782 422786 421790 420795 419801
      422805 425801 427796 428792 429787 431781 431781
 0.50 440757 439755 438754 437755 436756 435758 433757 433759
      433761 434762 436761 438762 439760 440757
 0.50 429788 429786 429783 427783 426784 426785 424787 423789
      423790 422792 422794 422796 423797 425796 426793 427791
      428790 429788

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 501274 502270 502266 500259 498252 494247 492242 489240
      487243 486248 488256 490263 493268 494271 497273 501274
 0.01 497985 495981 492978 488979 487983 489986 490994 490997
      488000 486001 485000 478993 472989 468987 465984 461982
      461974 461966 459962 454956 450954 445954 444955 447959
      450970 450976 451979 457987 458991 460995 458998 454999
      451996 445991 440983 435977 427973 424974 424978 428982
      431983 432991 432997 435000 438002 444998 446003 449008
      456010 470039 474038 478040 479044 481048 487043 489040
      492043 494041 494036 492031 490021 489015 487010 485007
      486004 490003 497985
 0.01 494944 494939 492932 489923 485914 484909 484903 482892
      483881 485875 484867 483862 483854 484849 486843 484836
      479829 475822 472819 470812 469805 467801 460785 454776
      452773 451767 454748 456739 455732 456728 456720 457715
      455702 441673 437675 434679 430687 424693 418693 415692
      405692 402692 399695 394701 391708 388719 389731 392755
      392761 389766 387775 388779 392780 393785 393790 387797
      382804 376810 370815 362820 361823 363825 366822 368825
      369828 372833 376831 377827 379823 381821 384822 389842
      391847 394846 397843 398840 400842 403862 408868 405877
      406882 407885 408889 409889 413884 419877 423879 425884
      425897 425900 427905 431912 434915 436916 440915 442920
      446930 449934 453937 459940 465946 466949 467956 464962
      467964 471964 476964 480967 482964 484959 491954 493947
      494944
 0.01 294058 295052 291051 288054 286058 284062 282065 279069
      277073 278078 281076 284074 287071 289067 292063 294059
      294058
 0.25 470858 469853 467851 462849 456847 453843 451842 450845
      451852 448857 445858 440859 434858 428859 424862 426867
      431870 438870 445868 450866 455862 459859 462858 463861
      465867 469861 470858
 0.25 459810 459805 456801 454800 451802 447809 448815 447817
      440815 442820 447826 451833 453836 456835 457827 458820
      458814 459810
 0.25 445790 445785 443780 441774 437772 436780 436786 433790
      430793 435794 438796 442796 444793 445790
 0.25 429795 428792 426789 423787 419792 417797 416804 417808
      419809 420818 423822 426822 427819 429812 426805 427798
      429795
 0.25 406733 406731 405729 404727 403727 402728 401730 401732
      403734 405735 406733
 0.50 455811 454809 453808 452808 452809 452811 452812 454811
      455811


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