Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 281843
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 29/0000 UTC THRU AUG 30/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

UPPER MS VALLEY...

WHILE PLACEMENT DETAILS REMAIN...THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT
SUPPORT FOR POTNL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT..PSBL MCS..ACRS MN
INTO WI TONIGHT WITH MODEST WAA INTO WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACRS
THE REGION THIS EVENING.  RAP FCST TRENDS INDICATE A NOSE OF 3 TO
4 THSD MLCAPES BUILDING INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING WITH THE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY BUILDING EWD ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF SFC-85H THETAE RIDGE AN WARM FRONT.  QUITE A BIT
OF N/S SPREAD EXISTS WITH WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS WILL
DVLP..AND MANUAL LEANED TOWARD THE MORE SRN CONSENSUS SOLNS
INCLUDING THE EC/GFS/NSSL WRF AND SEVERAL HRRR RUNS..WHILE TRYING
TO MAINTAIN SOME SENSE OF CONTINUITY AS WELL.  SOME TENDENCY FOR
ANY ORGANIZED CLUSTER TO BUILD ESEWD COULD BE LIMITED BY WARMING
AT 7H SO WAS SOMEWHAT HESITANT TO GO TOO FAR SOUTH AND AWAY FROM
HIER PW AXIS.  WITH WEAKENING BAND EXPECTED TO TRACK ACRS WI MON
MRNG...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING
TRAILING COLD FRONT MON AFTN WHERE A BLEND OF WRF ARW/EC SEEMED A
REASONABLE SOLN.


SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE INITIALLY OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION  WILL
LIKELY STALL ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES AND EVOLVE INTO A WEAKENING
NE/SW ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
CNTL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 PD.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE..MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HI PLAINS
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS/MO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MAINLY
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY BUT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF STG
LOW LEVEL FOCUS..ACTIVITY ACRS THIS REGION WILL BE HIGHLY
MESOSCALE DRIVEN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS IS QUITE LOW.
MODEST UPR DIFFLUENT PATRN ACRS THE CNTL/SRN HI PLAINS INTO ERN NM
WITH SEVERAL WEAK AND SMALL SCALE MCVS NOTED IN SATL IMAGERY MAY
HELP PROVIDE A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS WRN TX/ERN
NM NEWD INTO KS THIS PD..WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS LEADING TO
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINS.  A BLEND OF CONTINUITY ALONG WITH SOME
HIER WEIGHT TOWARD HI RES CAM GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE PD WAS USED
FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION.

LOWER MS VALLEY & WESTERN GULF COAST...

A WEAK UPR LOW OVER THE NW GULF ALONG WITH WEAK SFC REFLECTION
ALSO OVER THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THIS PD AS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR SW. AGREE WITH GENL
MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING HEAVIER RAINS NEAR AND OFF THE TX/LA
COASTS WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE..BUT POCKETS OF HEAVIER
DIURNAL TSTMS RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DVLP NWD INTO ERN TX/LA WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITHIN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS.

FLORIDA...

INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT SFC-85H FLOW TO THE EAST OF CIRC TRACKING
WWD TO THE SOUTH OF THE KEYS WILL HELP DRAW INCREASINGLY MOIST
TROPICAL AIR WITH PWS OVER 2.25 INCHES INTO SRN FL THIS PD ALONG
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING SHWERS/TSTMS
ACRS SRN FL THIS PD.   HAVE BASICALLY TOSSED OUT THE NAM AS IT
LOWERS HEIGHTS MUCH MORE SO THAN REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS..WHILE
REMAINING GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED IN PRODUCING AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ACRS SE FL AND THE KEYS.  SEE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS FROM THE NHC FOR ANY DVLPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.

CAROLINAS/SRN/CNTL APLCNS...

WITH THE APCH OF TD #8 LATE MON...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN RAINS
TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS OF NC DURING THE AFTN AS OUTER FRINGE OF
CIRC APCHS.  OTHERWISE...AXIS OF HIER PWS ALONG WITH DECAYING
FRONTAL BNDRY IN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RISK OF
SHWERS/TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF ERN NC...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY
FARTHER W INTO THE MTNS WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE TERRAIN
PROVIDING MAIN TRIGGER.  A GENL MODEL BLEND WAS USED GIVEN WEAK
FLOW/FORCING ALOFT.

NE...

MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SPOTTY MDT AREAL AVG PCPN AMOUNTS ALONG NARROW PW RIBBON ALONG
COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACRS THE REGION SUN NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON MON.  HOWEVER..SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 THSD J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY
IN THE PD TO SUPPORT POTENTIALLY HEAVIER ISOLD HEAVIER
RAINS..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SRN END OF THE FRONT THROUGH PA/OH/WV
VERY EARLY SUN EVENING BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT UPR SUPPORT.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 538205 539194 538188 533175 530170 527166 520156 511149
      507146 503147 502152 504153 507159 505166 503165 501167
      502173 499179 507189 512199 519209 521215 522223 521228
      519231 515233 509224 505218 501214 498211 493209 490210
      486209 483209 481210 480217 483222 489224 490227 489231
      487235 485233 482229 476228 472231 470236 474241 470244
      468250 464266 458279 452288 448292 445300 446307 450310
      454311 456310 460307 470304 477297 487293 499296 504297
      507296 511292 515285 520272 525257 529243 530233 532230
      532225 533217 535210 538205
 0.01 533925 533918 531911 528904 522899 520897 521895 521888
      520883 518877 512871 509867 506864 499860 492858 486854
      472857 467858 464861 459870 449871 445872 442874 440878
      440886 443894 446905 446919 447934 444943 440952 433951
      430941 428929 423910 422905 421901 417894 413883 411880
      408878 398862 394856 393841 393834 395831 398832 401836
      403835 405833 407829 410819 413800 414794 416790 422782
      427776 430774 433769 437763 441757 443753 447749 455747
      469750 485755 489754 493751 496750 499745 502738 504727
      504715 503701 501687 498677 495655 490643 485635 474625
      471622 466623 457630 451636 446643 436656 433660 432665
      433674 430681 428689 425697 425703 426710 437709 429724
      420744 414760 407765 405755 402756 401762 399770 391774
      388782 384791 380798 374806 373809 373814 373820 372826
      375835 376841 377848 374860 371867 369872 366875 354884
      352892 348898 347904 349909 351912 355914 365914 375914
      384917 387921 387926 386937 385943 383948 381953 378956
      375960 371963 365968 358972 352976 349978 343977 338971
      336968 336964 332954 331944 337926 325915 319913 315909
      312907 310902 311899 310894 309888 307878 303867 300857
      300852 301847 302843 305840 310839 312837 331839 338844
      343838 350831 353824 354802 355796 357791 361782 367766
      368761 368754 366750 364743 363740 362733 362728 362722
      361716 358713 353707 349702 344697 341693 336689 331689
      324690 309700 306702 305705 304709 305714 306719 307722
      309732 312741 315747 319749 320752 320756 317759 312764
      307767 300772 297774 294773 290770
 0.01 290770 286766 281764 272759 269758 265758 261758 259757
      253756 249758 238757 234760 231763 227766 224770 220781
      218787 217792 216805 216812 216821 216827 217832 219847
      225857 229864 233868 237870 243872 247875 251878 254883
      259893 264905 264920 260932 256942 256949 255954 255962
      255967 257979 262991 267001 270006 270009 267010 261010
      257008 252009 252014 255024 257025 259027 257028 252026
      241027 240031 241034 243040 244046 245054 248064 252072
      271085 280090 292091 300091 307091 318095 320095 321092
      321089 323087 329086 331090 335094 339099 341100 343098
      342096 342092 344087 347086 350086 355084 358080 363078
      367078 368080 375090 376092 376096 376100 382094 383095
      385091 389089 397085 403074 407070 409069 413069 416066
      417056 418053 417052 415054 411053 404052 402051 402047
      405037 411028 418015 420010 423004 427001 431997 434993
      439989 448982 450989 451993 453996 459988 464978 467974
      471971 478970 482973 488983 492988 499988 509984 518977
      522974 526970 526965 525959 523953 525947 528942 530936
      533925
 0.01 470095 471093 471091 471090 469090 469093 467095 469095
      470096 470095
 0.01 448073 448070 447070 445070 443069 443070 445072 446073
      448075 448073
 0.01 443096 443094 442091 440093 438095 436095 434095 433092
      431092 431094 432097 433097 434098 436098 438098 439098
      441098 443096 443096
 0.25 517273 520265 520256 519251 516246 504231 500228 497228
      496230 496236 499241 500247 498250 491245 488244 485252
      480262 475270 469278 463286 461290 460293 460298 464299
      467298 475293 482288 488285 494285 498286 503286 507285
      513279 517273
 0.25 525193 526190 526188 526185 526183 525182 524180 523179
      523178 521177 520176 518175 517177 517180 517182 517183
      518185 519187 519188 520190 521191 522192 523193 524194
      525193
 0.25 510955 509950 506951 504952 501954 499957 498960 497962
      496967 495970 496972 499972 500971 502969 504967 505964
      507960 508957 510955
 0.25 484682 484676 482670 480661 478658 475657 471663 459669
      457669 455672 453678 454684 456686 460689 463691 461694
      457700 451711 451716 454715 458712 463706 467700 470694
      472692 476691 482687 484682
 0.25 486924 483902 478895 473889 470887 465886 458885 454886
      453893 453903 453917 453930 453937 452942 449952 448956
      448963 450965 454962 458963 460967 463969 466968 468965
      472964 481963 483960 483953 481950 477947 481942 483938
      483932 486924
 0.25 457657 458655 458652 457650 456650 454650 454651 453652
      453654 453656 453659 453661 454663 455663 456663 457662
      457660 457658 457657
 0.25 400982 400975 401969 401964 400959 398956 395961 393966
      389970 386974 377979 367984 360990 351996 341000 332007
      319022 314024 310028 303037 300040 296039 291037 286033
      283033 279036 274040 268040 264039 258039 256040 255044
      254051 253056 253063 256068 260071 269077 279081 284083
      289082 298076 300070 304068 313063 325062 330059 335056
      339054 343054 352060 355061 359061 364059 370058 373054
      375052 375048 373043 371037 370034 371030 385014 392007
      397995 400982
 0.25 353737 352730 347725 340718 333708 329704 324702 318703
      316708 315714 315718 318722 322721 326716 328720 325726
      322730 321737 325750 328757 330762 338771 336778 333783
      327792 325798 326803 330801 334797 337793 340786 344775
      345772 345768 347762 350757 352751 353737
 0.25 299802 297796 293790 288781 284776 279773 270767 259764
      253765 248766 241769 235771 229779 226785 225792 224803
      223818 225832 227839 229845 232849 236852 241855 248855
      253854 260852 263849 267844 268839 268831 267825 269820
      273817 280815 291810 296807 299802
 0.25 303956 303942 302926 303897 300883 296872 294867 288866
      282866 275867 270869 267873 269886 274912 276926 275932
      273937 267947 263958 262963 263970 271976 277978 283976
      290970 298962 303956
 0.50 519265 518257 516251 509242 505242 503244 502253 500255
      497254 494252 490252 487257 485264 482271 478277 477282
      480284 483283 493282 499283 504282 512276 516272 519265
 0.50 477937 477925 477920 476915 470902 470897 467893 462891
      459890 457893 457903 455920 455929 455939 453946 452954
      452958 455956 457954 461954 463961 464964 467964 472960
      474957 472953 473945 476939 477937
 0.50 387004 387999 385998 382999 380000 378002 376003 374006
      372008 374010 376011 379012 381010 383008 385006 387004
 0.50 375994 375991 373990 370990 364991 360994 353999 346004
      338008 332015 321029 315037 310034 308039 307043 308045
      318047 324047 328044 333038 341031 341027 339028 341023
      343027 345025 349020 351016 354013 359013 363011 369003
      375994 375994
 0.50 365050 365049 363048 361049 360050 358050 357051 356051
      354053 354054 354055 354056 356057 357057 359057 361056
      362056 363055 364054 365052 365051 365050
 0.50 349738 346732 341726 337719 334717 332720 331724 329727
      325733 324737 325742 328751 333756 336758 340757 347752
      349745 349738
 0.50 298057 297052 294050 289047 285047 276048 271048 267049
      263049 260053 256061 257065 260068 268072 273074 278075
      282073 284070 293067 295062 298057
 0.50 300899 298889 297884 294882 289882 285880 281881 278884
      276888 276894 277904 279916 281925 281931 280935 275941
      273945 272950 267958 267964 269968 275974 281972 284970
      289964 295957 299949 299943 298936 297926 298915 300905
      300899
 0.50 286795 283783 277776 269771 261768 255768 249770 240775
      236777 233782 230790 227813 227827 229840 232844 236848
      240849 245849 248847 252843 257836 259823 260818 262813
      266811 271809 277808 284806 286800 286795
 1.00 515269 517263 515259 512252 509249 507248 505251 505255
      504259 501259 496257 492258 490260 487270 487274 490277
      498279 503278 508270 514270 515269
 1.00 472935 472927 469922 464919 460918 459923 459929 459935
      458940 459944 463947 464955 465959 467959 467954 467947
      470940 472935
 1.00 346741 344737 341734 339730 335727 333728 328731 326734
      327738 329744 331748 334752 338752 342750 345747 346743
      346741
 1.00 297903 297899 296896 293890 289889 286892 283898 284907
      285914 288929 288936 286943 282949 277952 275960 277965
      281965 284963 288959 294946 294938 294929 294923 295914
      297903
 1.00 282061 281059 281058 280057 279056 277055 276055 274055
      272055 270055 268056 269058 270059 272060 273061 274061
      275061 277062 279062 281063 282061
 1.00 274795 274789 272784 268778 261774 253775 246779 241785
      238791 236800 236809 233818 231826 231834 234842 237844
      241845 246843 248841 252834 253831 253825 253814 254810
      256807 263804 271800 274795
 1.00 272069 272067 272065 271064 270063 269062 268061 266061
      264061 264062 263064 263066 264066 266067 267068 269069
      271069 272069
 1.50 514266 515264 514261 513258 512256 510254 509256 509259
      509260 510262 511263 512265 513266 514266
 1.50 502275 504270 503267 502264 499261 498260 495259 493261
      492263 492266 492271 494274 495275 498276 500276 502275
 1.50 467940 467937 467935 467932 466930 465929 465927 464926
      462926 462927 462930 462932 461935 461937 461940 462942
      464943 466943 466942 467940 467940
 1.50 341744 340742 339738 338735 336734 334732 330732 328733
      329737 330739 331742 333745 335747 338749 341746 341744
 1.50 293899 291898 289899 289900 289902 290904 291906 292904
      293901 293899
 1.50 290914 290912 290911 290912 290914 290916 290914
 1.50 287958 287956 287954 287953 286954 285954 283955 282956
      281957 280958 281960 283961 285960 287958 287958
 1.50 264794 261789 257787 250786 245789 243795 244803 239813
      236824 233830 233834 234838 239842 244841 248837 250832
      250824 248816 247810 248805 254802 259801 263797 264794
 2.00 501272 502270 501268 501267 500266 499264 498263 497262
      496262 495262 494264 494267 494269 495270 496272 497273
      499273 501273 501272
 2.00 339744 338742 337742 335736 334736 334737 333738 332739
      333739 335741 335743 336745 337745 339744
 2.00 248823 247819 245815 243813 242817 241821 238826 236829
      235834 237838 242839 246837 248833 248827 248823
 3.00 242833 242832 241831 240830 238831 238832 238833 238834
      240835 242833 242833

$$





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