Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 030645
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 03/1200 UTC THRU MAY 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST

A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
TOTALS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE PW VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND UVVS WILL BE ENHANCED IN A BROADLY UPPER
DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND A FARTHER NORTH JET STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  THERE IS THE USUAL AMOUNT OF
DETAIL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS---BUT A SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND EVEN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE AREAS.  THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS---AS WOULD BE EXPECTED---ARE SHOWING
HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE 1-2"+ RANGE---WITH THESE AMOUNTS LIKELY TO
OCCUR IN A BRIEF PERIOD LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PRECIP AREA EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EAST COAST WILL BE PRIMARILY STRATIFORM IN NATURE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF A SURFACE WAVE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AND PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND.  MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .10-.25"+ RANGE EXPECTED
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

WESTERN LAKES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR IN SHOWING AMPLIFYING HEIGHT
FALLS DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION DAY 1.  A NARROW REGION OF ENHANCED UVVS ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES REGION AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

SOUTHERN PLAINS

AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING THE ABOVE MENTIONED AMPLIFYING
SET WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE
EXPECTED QUICK MOVEMENT SHOULD KEEP PRECIP TOTALS FROM BEING
SIGNIFICANT---WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS
POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

THE FULL LATITUDE TROF INITIALLY OFF THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT PIECES THIS PERIOD.  THE NORTHERN PORTION
WILL PUSH OFF T0 THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN B.C.---WHILE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF---OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP TOTALS AHEAD OF EACH PORTION OF THIS EVOLVING TROF DAY
1---CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE WA/OREGON CASCADES---WESTWARD TO
THE WA/OREGON COAST RANGES AND SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 520269 521261 519254 518248 515243 510233 505221 500211
      495202 491198 486196 478202 469206 460209 456211 451212
      446214 441212 434205 428203 425201 420199 419204 421212
      422219 419224 416222 416219 415215 409211 401202 398199
      393196 387196 384196 387202 390206 392211 396215 402218
      406221 406224 405226 399226 395227 393232 399242 403245
      409247 414250 421251 431252 440250 451248 461246 465245
      468246 470248 483266 486271 489276 495285 498289 503292
      508291 512287 517278 520269
 0.01 532840 532834 530829 529823 528819 526815 523811 518805
      512802 505803 498806 489808 486810 481811 474813 460819
      450822 440822 435823 432825 424829 414838 402851 397856
      394858 392855 390852 382841 381838 383836 386836 388833
      390827 390824 388820 388815 389813 392805 400798 405797
      409794 414786 419781 425779 438765 440757 443750 446742
      446738 443735 430728 427730 423731 425724 430701 432691
      431685 435681 440675 444669 448663 449657 448650 437645
      432641 423643 415648 406652 399653 393655 390657 387658
      381660 374666 368673 364679 359686 355692 346707 331732
      327740 322746 308758 304764 301766 300770 299775 295775
      286777 267778 259782 256785 256790 254793 251795 249802
      250807 253809 263809 270811 274814 271816 267819 264822
      259830 251842 248848 245855 234886 234897 238904 243907
      250907 258904 262898 265894 268893 269895 275902 282904
      289903 297899 304896 312884 322870 331857 341847 349842
      357841 359839 361841 363845 366857 369860 371858 374855
      376852 378850 379852 383859 386861 389863 388866 384872
      380894 378910 381917 387923 394927 399927 402924 407932
      409936 410936 417940 421942 425942 431938 435933 437928
      439924 442922 449924 454923 458921 464916 466914 469915
      470920 473922 481923 487919 492910 497899 500890 505883
      507881 511880 517874 522868 526860 528856 530851 532840
 0.01 493238 492233 488229 483223 478222 474222 467226 463227
      458225 453225 450227 447231 452233 459231 462230 468231
      475228 480230 481236 484239 487237 491239 493238
 0.01 384027 384021 382017 378015 372014 367012 366007 371997
      373992 374987 370985 364983 355981 351979 348979 346976
      340970 337968 330968 324973 321977 318981 317986 318991
      322001 324005 326008 330011 332016 337023 342024 347022
      354019 357019 359020 363023 368025 370024 381027 384027
 0.25 514266 516259 514253 510244 506235 502228 496221 494223
      494228 497238 502246 504251 505257 506262 505268 508272
      509275 512273 514266
 0.25 506276 505271 503266 501262 498258 495255 491255 492260
      495264 496268 497274 500277 504278 506276
 0.25 503847 503841 499839 496842 493845 491848 488853 488859
      491863 493863 497860 499857 502853 503849 503847
 0.25 485212 484211 482210 481210 479210 477211 476212 475214
      475215 477216 478216 480216 482215 484214 485212
 0.25 454218 451218 446219 441218 436219 428223 429229 428233
      426235 421234 415232 413233 412236 415241 419243 425245
      434244 437243 438240 435235 442227 450222 454218
 0.25 465898 465890 463883 459877 454874 451875 446880 446884
      447889 448896 450904 453904 456903 462901 465898
 0.25 424670 423665 421664 416662 409664 403667 397670 390676
      379683 375687 370693 365704 362710 359715 349727 342737
      334745 318766 310777 307782 305787 305792 307794 309796
      310801 308809 305816 302821 301829 300837 301841 294871
      292877 289885 291888 295888 300886 305882 310875 316864
      322853 328841 340817 347807 355796 358791 360788 363789
      366789 370787 374781 379768 383756 385749 388743 392736
      397731 405722 413712 420701 423684 424670
 0.25 423867 422863 421861 417861 410863 405865 400869 398870
      398874 400878 404882 407884 410882 414878 418874 422869
      423867
 0.25 294847 292843 293837 292834 286832 280831 275833 266840
      261850 256861 254866 253873 257875 262872 266868 271865
      280860 291854 293850 294847
 0.25 286806 283802 279798 273795 268794 260796 255799 254801
      256804 261805 269806 274807 280808 285808 286806
 0.50 505242 506240 506239 504238 503236 503235 501234 500232
      499232 498234 499237 500240 501240 502242 503243 505244
      505242
 0.50 414675 410674 403677 394683 385689 376697 373701 371708
      369719 360725 352733 345742 337749 323765 317775 317781
      319785 322786 323788 322795 319808 321812 319815 317821
      313830 307841 306847 307854 309859 312859 314858 320849
      330829 335805 341797 349787 352784 357781 369778 372774
      374769 378755 378749 378741 379734 381730 382724 379724
      375726 373723 374721 379717 388710 396704 403696 407692
      410686 413680 414675
 0.50 276803 276801 273799 270798 268797 264798 261798 257799
      256801 259803 261804 265804 269804 270804 274804 276803

$$




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