Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 310627
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 31/1200 UTC THRU AUG 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND....

SEVERAL WEAK S/WVS EMBDD WITHIN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RATHER BROAD
UPR TROF DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
THE MORE NOTABLES S/WV IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACRS NY STATE AND
NEW ENGLAND THUR MRNG/AFTN WITH COMBINATION OF WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS..COOLING ALOFT..SUPPORTING THE INCREASED THREAT OF SHWERS
ACRS NRN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT AREAL AVG AMOUNTS OF .25 TO
.50 INCH HERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN SOME OF THE STGR
CONVECTIVE STORMS.  ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENLY LIGHT AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND AVAILABLE MSTR.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

MODEST LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW DRAWING PWS AOA 2 INCHES INTO AND IN
ADVANCE OF MCV DROPPING SEWD OVER OK SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THRU PARTS
OF ERN TX INTO SRN AR/NRN LA THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM ENERGY HELPS SHIFT 85H INFLOW AND DEEPER MSTR SLOWLY SEWD
THIS PD.  BASED ON RECENT TRENDS BELIEVE 00Z NAM IS TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS ACRS THE ARKLATEX REGION..WHILE 00Z HI RES
RUNS SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE MORE SRN TRENDS OF THE STGR
CONVECTION ACRS NRN TX THIS MRNG.  THIS MAY YIELD A NEW MCV THAT
WOULD LIKELY TRACK EWD NEAR THE NRN LA/SRN AR BORDER THIS
MRNG/AFTN GENERATING STEADIER ORGANIZED RAIN/TSTMS NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE MCV WITH TRAILING CONVECTION...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN TX.  KEPT AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BASED ON LARGE MODEL SPREAD ACRS THIS REGION BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME 1 TO 2 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH ISOLD
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES WHERE CELL REGENERATION MAY OCCUR.


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

WEAK AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PERSIST ACRS
THIS REGION WITH POTNL FOR STG SLOW MOVING CONVECTION FOCUSING A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH TODAY..ESPECIALLY THRU THE FAVORED ERN UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SRN CO INTO ERN NM/EXTREME WRN TX..UNDER WEAK NWLY FLOW
PATRN.   PWS OF UP TO 1.50 INCHES ARE FCST TO WORK THEIR WAY NWWD
INTO PARTS OF WRN TX/NM LATE THUR/THUR NIGHT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY DVLPG DURING PEAK AFTN HEATING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD AREAS OF TALL SKINNY CAPES ALONG WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW OF
LESS THEN 10 KTS ESPECIALLY ACRS PARTS OF SRN NM/EXTREME W TX
SUGGESTING POTNL FOR SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS  FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW ACRS THIS REGION DUE TO SOME RECENT RAINS WHICH GIVEN THE
ABOVE SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS.


...GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACRS THIS
REGION WITH WEAK S/WV ENERGY LIFTING NEWD AROUND FLATTENING WRN
U.S. UPR RIDGE INTERACTS WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED MONSOON PATRN.
CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS IS RATHER LOW HERE GIVEN WEAK
FORCING..LARGE MODEL SPREAD...AND HIGHLY MESOSCALE NATURE OF
PCPN..WHICH ARGUES FOR TAKING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH.  DID PLACE
SOMEWHAT HIER AMOUNTS NEAR THE CASCADES OF CNTL OREGON WITH
SOMEWHAT HIER FOCUSED MSTR /LI`S AND WEAK S/WV ENERGY LIFTING NEWD
ACRS THE NRN CA/OREGON COASTS..BUT IN GENL KEPT MOST AREAL AVG
AMOUNTS LESS THAN .25 INCH.

...SRN APLCNS/SE US...

SLOWLY BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASING ELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL ALLOW MSTR TO SPREAD INLAND ACRS THE SE U.S. INTO THE
SRN APLCNS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS
STRENGTHENING RT ENTRANCE REGION JET HELPS PROVIDE INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT..ESPECIALLY THUR NIGHT.  STAYED WITH CONTINUITY
HERE THOUGH MAY NEED TO INCREASE AMOUNTS ACRS THE SRN APCNS IF 00Z
EC TRENDS TOWARD WETTER 00Z GFS/UKMET SOLNS WHICH DID INDICATE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.


SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 547836 547830 545825 542817 537792 532765 530749 529745
      528737 526724 524714 523709 520705 514701 510697 507696
      500693 497691 496687 498677 497672 495668 489665 480667
      476669 473672 468674 464677 457682 451689 445694 432703
      425707 418714 394740 391746 392750 394752 400751 403753
      402756 399763 393783 391791 391795 390799 390803 391813
      395819 397820 398816 398809 399804 399797 405795 408796
      413796 417799 418802 417804 415809 416814 414819 415823
      412833 410854 409862 408867 409874 410878 409884 407886
      406896 408899 413898 416898 417900 426902 431895 432892
      432884 433878 433873 433865 434862 437861 446860 460854
      469853 474855 477857 489870 494878 500884 505888 507890
      511891 522890 529886 538869 541860 544850 546843 547836
 0.01 488131 483129 479124 470114 468105 464100 455090 449080
      446075 442073 439074 437076 439079 444084 445089 442091
      435092 428091 424093 427099 427103 425105 422107 421112
      418113 414111 412104 411101 408099 403102 399104 387110
      381113 376116 372121 371126 373128 375134 375143 375160
      376164 378167 383172 385175 388177 392179 398177 403179
      407185 410191 413198 412201 411206 410211 409217 410225
      413229 416230 419228 420225 424227 428228 436227 441224
      443223 446223 449226 453226 456221 457217 456214 449209
      451202 453191 452183 445181 442183 438181 428174 425169
      422166 421161 421151 422147 426146 428144 432146 434153
      439156 446157 455150 460145 465142 476134 488131
 0.01 474034 474029 473026 471024 469023 466023 463022 459023
      457025 457027 457030 459033 460035 464036 467036 470036
      472036 474034
 0.01 476999 476992 475986 474981 470979 465978 460978 457980
      453983 453988 453994 457997 460999 465000 470000 475000
      476999
 0.01 465905 465900 463895 460890 456883 454879 451879 447879
      444882 440887 439891 439897 443904 446911 450916 459915
      462910 465905
 0.01 445966 442959 440956 438953 439949 442940 440937 436937
      432937 429940 424945 420952 417956 414954 400954 397957
      396961 394965 394970 397972 401974 403982 403986 405989
      408987 410991 413998 417996 419992 431983 437980 442973
      445966
 0.01 401669 395663 384665 372669 367672 361674 345689 330704
      316716 308722 298728 290736 288741 286745 284751 281754
      275762 263776 257782 251791 244799 238807 235818 230828
      229837 228841 228848 229862 231868 231874 235887 240896
      244905 248907 251904 258899 260889 263878 264865 264849
      263842 264836 266831 269827 273823 279822 288818 292817
      298815 304818 307821 314829 318833 322836 325840 329843
      329857 330862 333867 339871 345873 350870 357862 362852
      366841 370830 376821 379809 382800 386790 390779 391772
      389769 385767 381770 375779 359793 346806 344805 344801
      344794 348789 349784 353771 354758 353753 350748 346745
      341747 341744 344739 348731 353721 359712 366704 375697
      384690 392683 398677 401669
 0.01 410066 411061 407057 402050 398046 393044 389042 384040
      380038 377033 371025 350019 343015 333014 324017 314021
      309022 309014 310007 311002 315992 321982 333972 341976
      346978 353978 357976 361972 365962 369951 372940 374930
      373923 372918 371911 369905 367900 364896 361893 359891
      356891 349892 345893 339893 336891 330890 326893 301919
      296927 290935 284943 280954 280966 282976 285987 286992
      286997 280005 276011 275016 275028 278033 280038 283047
      282052 281057 277061 271062 267063 261062 251061 246062
      243064 243066 242073 244076 251084 258088 267092 275098
      282104 291110 299116 305119 307122 309126 313129 320126
      327122 334115 337116 338119 339122 339126 338132 341135
      346138 348133 349129 350122 353117 355115 353114 350111
      348106 346097 349092 353088 361084 365081 369082 377087
      380089 384088 388087 397083 406077 408076 409071 410066
 0.01 395203 395197 393195 389189 383184 378178 373174 369174
      367176 364178 362181 363185 366187 370193 374194 377196
      385200 390204 395203
 0.01 329166 329164 329163 328161 327160 326160 324160 323160
      323163 324165 325166 327166 328166 329166
 0.25 514843 512835 509829 504826 500824 494825 490828 492835
      491843 493848 498851 505851 508851 511849 514843
 0.25 510799 510792 509786 507782 504777 498772 491768 488767
      483768 482773 483781 484786 487791 493797 494802 496809
      497814 501815 508810 510805 510799
 0.25 489716 487705 482695 476691 467691 460694 451699 444705
      438712 435721 436729 435734 431742 428750 428756 430757
      440753 450752 455750 458746 462739 468732 471731 475732
      480731 485727 488722 489716
 0.25 438209 436208 434208 436210 438209 438209
 0.25 386061 387056 385053 379049 373045 365043 358041 350038
      344035 338035 335036 330040 323043 318046 312047 309045
      304040 301039 297041 297048 299057 301063 301067 299069
      293073 283074 277074 274075 271078 271084 277088 283092
      288097 293100 301101 307098 311092 316087 319086 324087
      330090 335088 339082 345077 349072 355069 363069 371071
      377073 381069 383063 386061
 0.25 369815 369809 365805 360807 357810 350815 344820 342825
      342832 343840 345846 347849 350848 353844 357836 362829
      367821 369815
 0.25 361936 361929 360924 358918 355912 353908 350905 344905
      337906 333903 332901 328901 321907 314914 307922 301928
      294936 289945 285956 287962 290965 294968 298966 299971
      304973 312969 320962 325961 328962 332962 342958 350952
      357947 360942 361936
 0.25 343774 343767 342764 339763 332764 327766 318772 309780
      300785 287789 276792 271794 266796 257802 253806 253812
      255815 261817 266817 271815 275812 278807 282804 289803
      293803 300804 307802 313803 320809 324813 328814 329800
      328796 330793 335789 340783 343774
 0.50 457704 457702 455703 453704 452706 451706 450707 449708
      448709 449710 451710 452710 454709 456708 457707 457705
      457704
 0.50 374062 374057 373054 369050 366048 363047 354045 349042
      346040 342039 336042 331045 320052 315054 310058 310066
      311069 314071 320072 326070 335062 341060 348059 355060
      358062 362062 374062
 0.50 363818 362813 358814 355817 352820 349824 347828 347833
      348840 349841 352840 353837 356832 358828 360825 363820
      363818
 0.50 354938 353929 351918 347912 343912 340915 336915 334913
      328907 321911 315916 311922 312928 310934 304949 301958
      301961 305964 312960 317955 320953 323952 328957 336956
      343951 349946 352943 354939 354938
 0.50 331781 330776 328775 324776 322778 319780 318782 316784
      316787 318787 322787 324786 327784 330783 331781
 0.50 311081 309079 307077 303078 301079 299080 296081 294083
      292085 293089 295091 298090 300090 302089 306087 308086
      310083 311081
 0.50 303935 300935 297937 294940 291943 289947 288952 288957
      291957 294956 296952 297947 299943 301939 303935 303935
 0.50 270808 269806 267805 266804 265804 263803 261803 259804
      258804 256805 256806 255808 255810 256811 258813 260813
      262813 264813 266813 267812 269810 269809 270808
 1.00 346934 344924 343920 341924 332926 326933 321939 316945
      319946 323945 328945 330949 332952 336951 342945 346936
      346934
 1.50 339941 340939 341936 339934 337933 335933 334934 333934
      332936 331937 330939 330941 332943 332944 333945 334947
      334948 336947 337945 338943 339941 339941

$$




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