Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 070649
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 07/1200 UTC THRU JUL 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE OH VALLEY..EASTERN GREAT LAKES..NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

AGAIN..THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE FRONT/FRONTAL PASSAGE ALL THE WAY FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
PERIOD..AND ESPECIALLY SO OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN
PLAINS..WHERE SOME VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BACK INTO THE MID OH VALLEY..A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN/CLEANER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50+ INCH RANGE THESE AREAS..AS PER
MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE..BUT WHERE THE FRONT STALLS FROM THE
MID OH VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS..THE
POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR HEAVY RAINS..AND AGAIN ESPECIALLY SO IN
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN PLAINS.  HERE..A PERSISTENT AND
MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY..THE POOLING OF PWS TO ABOVE 2 INCHES VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY..AND WEAK H5 S/WV ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES..WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND VERY HEAVY CONVECTION.  FOR THE
MOST PART THE MODEL MASS FIELD AND QPFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO..BUT WPC QPF LEANED TOWARDS AN ARW..NMMB..NSSL WRF
AND GEM REGIONAL BLEND..WITH THE NAM AND OLD ECMWF HIRES QPFS
HAVING THEIR HEAVIER RAINFALL AXES IN OK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND
THE GFS SHOWING SOME FEEDBACK PROBLEMS LATER IN THE PERIOD.  AREAL
AVERAGE
1-3+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF WESTERN TX
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN OK..WITH SOME ISOLATED 5+ INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE..WHILE SOME 1-2 INCH RAINS ARE LIKELY FROM
NORTHWESTERN AR/SOUTHCENTRAL MO UP INTO THE MID OH RIVER VALLEY.


...WESTERN STATES...

FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS THIS PERIOD..WITH H5 S/WV ENERGY MOVING
FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE UPSTREAM CLOSED H5
LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC EDGING CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  UNDER THIS GENERAL FALLING HEIGHT/MID LEVEL
COOLING REGIME..AND WITH THE HELP OF THE EASTWARD MOVING
S/WVS..EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTION THRUOUT
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION..AND ESPECIALLY SO FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL WY DOWN INTO NM..WHERE SOME H85 SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED DURING THE PERIOD.  WPC QPF STAYED CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY HERE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

TERRY

24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 544920 542909 540901 532901 529902 526904 520910 516916
      511923 506930 486947 477952 472957 469962 462977 461983
      460986 456993 451000 444005 437009 433016 429034 416037
      405039 392042 387038 380034 373032 366027 363020 364007
      365994 368985 370977 373971 379956 381950 383942 386927
      399900 404894 410887 421875 454836 464825 468820 473815
      486804 498794 507787 512782 517778 523773 526766 528764
      529760 531753 530739 528735 526732 522728 515727 514723
      515720 516717 518708 519694 516683 511678 506675 504675
      501672 497665 493663 487665 477673 456695 447697 444699
      438701 431704 422708 415713 410717 401727 397733 394738
      393744 394752 402765 398770 393777 389784 384790 375805
      365806 360810 350819 345822 341827 339841 341847 345853
      356861 357865 358871 357882 354903 352911 349916 342930
      339934 337939 335946 336954 333961 330968 321979 316984
      310990 300002 294006 288009 275013 269015 264017 260021
      255024 247023 237023 232024 228027 228031 229050 230053
      231058 234063 238070 244075 248079 255082 265083 270085
      274086 278086 281085 286083 294083 298082 304083 308083
      310082 314082 319084 321092 312094 309094 308098 307101
      306104 308109 310111 314114 319114 322115 324113 326109
      330107 337112 341115 343118 346125 349130 356135 365139
      368145 364150 361154 361156 363160 367159 371159 373161
      377168 379170 378173 374174 366176 361179 359182 359185
      373197
 0.01 373197 400219 406224 407227 404228 398229 400232 403235
      411238 418235 424229 431226 434225 436221 437217 435214
      433211 433205 430199 425193 424188 426184 427177 426171
      423169 418166 419163 421158 421147 418130 430121 437116
      439117 439121 437127 434133 432144 432150 433155 438161
      454162 472166 476167 479170 484174 491177 500179 508178
      512179 514182 518181 523182 525178 526170 527167 526163
      525158 523155 518148 513146 506142 502140 499136 492130
      486124 470100 465099 462097 458096 456091 453081 452075
      449071 449065 451061 455054 456051 457046 457041 456037
      455026 460026 463024 466023 470021 477015 480007 484999
      487993 492988 498983 505983 515979 521974 529963 532956
      536947 542932 544920
 0.01 362769 362758 359755 356754 346761 336772 326779 320784
      313788 308791 303795 286799 278800 272799 263799 253800
      249802 248804 248808 248813 250816 255822 259826 265828
      279833 291836 299837 304837 307835 316827 322823 328817
      337808 346797 349792 352786 355782 359777 362769
 0.25 504715 503705 500701 492699 481704 476695 472693 468695
      460701 453708 446714 443718 438721 434723 431724 428724
      422724 417726 413730 410737 409742 410748 415756 416758
      415764 412772 399788 391798 385808 380814 375821 371830
      369835 368842 367855 365867 360895 355916 349936 345948
      341957 334968 328977 318990 312996 307004 302014 298024
      297032 299038 302042 308043 315037 321031 335023 344019
      348016 350011 355998 360987 368971 372961 375951 379938
      381927 384912 389901 394893 399887 412873 426858 432849
      440839 450825 452821 454815 457805 461792 467784 474775
      478769 479766 478762 479754 481751 488743 494737 499730
      503721 504715
 0.25 451100 439087 432084 425081 424076 424072 425061 425057
      424052 422049 416049 413051 408050 402049 396049 387049
      380046 371046 365047 361049 350058 346060 341059 333055
      328054 325055 323059 323062 327070 328082 333087 335090
      338092 342091 346088 353083 356082 360082 365082 370083
      377088 388090 395103 397104 398101 399095 403094 403101
      402107 404111 407112 410111 439103 451100
 0.25 424220 426217 424215 422213 418209 408203 403202 398199
      388192 385188 378187 376187 375192 379196 387203 397210
      408217 412222 412228 416231 419228 422221 424220
 0.25 395168 396166 396165 396163 395161 395160 393159 391159
      390160 389160 388162 387163 386164 386166 386168 386170
      386171 387173 389175 391175 393174 394172 395170 395169
      395168
 0.25 398147 397145 396143 396142 395141 393141 391141 390141
      389142 388143 388146 388148 389149 389151 390151 392153
      393153 395153 396152 397150 398148 398147
 0.25 385120 385118 385117 383117 381117 379119 381121 383122
      384120 385120
 0.25 356766 356765 354765 352766 351767 349768 348769 347771
      347772 346774 345776 346778 347779 348779 350778 352776
      352775 353774 354773 355772 356770 356768 356767 356766
 0.25 303823 302816 299814 290812 282810 274807 269806 265805
      259807 257809 258816 261818 269820 278822 287824 296825
      300826 303823
 0.25 283041 281038 278036 274035 270036 268050 266052 262051
      258046 253041 248037 240035 236039 235044 235050 238055
      243061 249064 260072 270075 274074 276072 278069 279064
      277059 277052 278048 280046 283041
 0.50 469706 469704 467703 466702 465702 464705 462706 461708
      460709 459711 458712 457714 458716 459716 460717 462716
      463714 465713 465712 466710 467709 468708 469706
 0.50 495720 494714 492713 487713 482716 478720 473725 470729
      468736 469741 475740 479736 484733 487729 492725 495720
 0.50 463770 462765 460760 453758 444763 441765 439765 438762
      433767 432771 430774 425779 422785 411798 406805 402808
      397808 391812 386816 381823 378829 375837 372846 371857
      368868 361901 357919 356925 354930 351940 345953 337967
      328980 317993 310005 307012 305019 305025 305029 309031
      312030 321027 329023 340015 345011 349004 352996 356989
      361981 365973 370959 375943 378932 379922 382910 384900
      387893 390886 396871 400864 402855 405844 410837 418825
      421819 423810 421807 419802 420798 423794 429788 432785
      436785 445795 450790 454786 460777 463770
 0.50 451750 451748 450748 448747 446748 445749 446751 447752
      449752 450751 451750
 0.50 440834 440831 438830 436830 432830 429833 424838 420844
      415849 411854 410857 411860 414862 419858 424853 429848
      434842 439837 440834
 0.50 416227 417225 417222 417220 417219 416217 415217 414219
      415221 415222 415224 415227 416227 416227
 0.50 426765 425764 424764 423765 422767 421768 421770 420771
      421772 423771 423770 424769 425767 426766 426765
 0.50 399206 398204 397203 396202 394201 394200 393199 391198
      390197 389197 388196 386195 385194 383195 384196 386198
      387199 389201 391202 392204 393205 394205 395206 397207
      399206
 0.50 408070 409066 408063 405063 402062 404058 399056 393057
      390060 386061 381052 376050 372052 372057 373064 372068
      373070 376074 383074 387073 395078 400077 403074 408070
 0.50 263066 261059 259055 257049 253045 249042 245041 243044
      244048 245053 242054 243057 248060 253062 258065 263066
 1.00 391844 392840 389840 385843 382848 379852 378859 377868
      377873 378877 380877 382872 384866 386859 388852 391847
      391844
 1.00 377913 376905 374900 373900 368904 365909 355937 343961
      335973 328983 319994 313005 311012 309021 311024 314024
      319023 330016 340008 344004 348998 353987 361972 365961
      373930 377913
 1.50 371923 372918 371915 369917 364925 361929 357936 353945
      342965 335975 330983 322992 317001 315006 313013 312018
      315020 321018 326015 334010 338006 341001 347993 357974
      363961 365949 368936 371923 371923
 2.00 363952 363945 363937 362936 359940 350954 341969 335978
      330984 325991 320998 316007 314014 318016 323014 329011
      336005 340000 350984 355975 358967 361958 363952
 3.00 358958 357955 353955 350958 344969 340975 337979 330988
      326993 324999 323006 326007 332004 335001 339996 342991
      348980 353969 358958
 4.00 339989 340986 340984 339983 337983 336984 335986 334988
      333990 333991 332993 331995 330997 331998 332997 333996
      334995 335994 336993 337991 339989 339989

$$





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