Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 171809
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EDT WED MAY 17 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 18/0000 UTC THRU MAY 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...BLENDED WPC CONTINUITY WITH MAINLY SUPPORTIVE 12 UTC ARW AND
WPC INTERNAL BIAS CORRECTED QPF INPUT/DETAILS...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES INTO TX...

GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND SLOWLY DIGS AN
ANONYMOUSLY DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SEWD WITH CENTROID NEAR THE
WY/UT/CO REGION THU THAT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS SHOW A VERY SLOW MOVING OCCLUDED
FRONT/TROWAL SETUP ACROSS WITH THE FOOTHILLS OF THE N-CENTRAL
ROCKIES THAT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SWINGS JUST TO
THE SOUTH...LEADING TO A STRONG DEFORMATION AREA AIDED BY UPSLOPE
FLOW. A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS IS LIKELY
WITH DEEP LAYERED COOLING...WHILE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...A
COMBINATION OF LONGER DURATION MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND SNOW MELT COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES. THERE
REMAINS SOME SUPPORT OF SHOWING EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SEWD
THRU THE SRN GREAT BASIN WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PCPN
FROM SRN UT/NRN AZ INTO CO WED NIGHT INTO THU. LATER PD SYSTEM
APPRAOCH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND LEADING GULF MOISTURE
RETURN MAY LEAD TO NEW CONVECTIVE FORMATION POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM
WITH HEATING OVER TX THU AFTERNOON. WPC MANUALLY GENERATED QPF
LEANS HEAVILY TOWARD A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND HREF MEANS GIVEN
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NWS WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER FORECAST DETAILS.

...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND SRN QUEBEC/ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS
THE E-CENTRAL US...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE IN DEPICTION OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT LIFTS STEADILY NEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNING. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR A MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SWATH IN THE EVOLVING COMMA HEAD/WARM CONVEYOR BELT
BAND FROM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THEN INTO SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC LATER PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN BANDING
DETAILS BOTH NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND IN THE
EXPECTED WARM SECTOR JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITHIN
THE MAIN MOISTURE BAND/LLJ FLOW. WITHIN THIS AREA....LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO 2-3" ARE POSSIBLE WED EVENING/OVERNIGHT
WHERE TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FLOW
ALIGNMENT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHOSE RESULTANT
STRONG CONVECTION WITH PWS NEAR 1.5" WORK/REDEVELOP INTO THE
NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA
LEADING TO POTENTIAL RUNOFF ISSUES ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT MDT TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE...AN GENERALLY EWD SHIFTING MOISTURE AXIS TRAILING DOWN
ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL US WILL ACT TO FUEL LESS ORGANIZED BUT SPOTTY
MODERATE PCPN FROM THE NORTHEAST/OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE
MID-LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS/SRN APPALACHIANS AS SOME RENEWED GULF
INFLOW FEEDS INLAND AND IS ACTED ON BY UNCERTAIN RIDING IMPULSES
ALOFT.

...SRN FL...

DAYTIME HEATING ACTING ON MDTLY HIGH MOISTURE AND SSELY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS THE SRN PENINSULA.  GLOBAL AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT LIGHT AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS
HERE...BUT SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE AS FUELED
WITHIN THE NRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PW TROPICAL AIR.

SULLIVAN/SCHICHTEL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 19/00Z
 0.01 548167 546169 543170 541168 537165 533160 527158 526156
      522156 518156 512157 509154 508148 506141 504137 489116
      480097 469073 464064 460054 457047 454042 449029 448024
      448015 452003 457991 460985 464979 469969 473960 478947
      483934 492914 494906 497901 501886 504873 506860 508843
      510828 512796 514782 515773 514762 514731 514720 516714
      519713 521710 524709 528711 535719 522675 519673 517669
      512658 506650 498646 490641 482634 477633 472636 466639
      460641 457645 457650 457657 459663 460671 460675 458677
      457682 457689 455695 451700 442707 437710 433714 428726
      421731 421735 424740 417747 415752 416759 413766 411771
      408776 404780 399784 396789 396796 399800 403804 405808
      405812 403819 393835 382856 380861 377866 373880 371885
      368889 361895 354901 346907 340915 332922 323931 317939
      311946 303952 297959 295963 297966 304967 309965 318960
      327954 333954 337952 345947 351940 366928 373920 380912
      388904 390903 394902 401902 404913 405930 405945 407950
      410954 414966 415969 415973 415982 415990 417997 418001
      414003 408002 397001 390001 386998 380992 375989 370989
      345984 334979 325975 313974 306974 302976 295982 291991
      291999 293004 299012 303015 309016 322013 342007
 0.01 342007 356007 360008 362010 364016 366024 365032 362039
      360043 356044 345047 341050 339054 347055 355057 357060
      356065 355069 351070 346071 342075 338080 335084 334093
      333102 336109 340114 343118 346123 347130 351135 358136
      362133 364130 368129 370127 375127 384124 390121 393124
      391125 386139 386148 389155 395165 399169 405172 416178
      424180 428180 431178 435175 436172 436167 434163 433155
      434151 438152 443156 445162 447172 448179 448182 451185
      456187 461186 465187 467185 468181 468176 467172 469169
      470167 472167 474169 480172 485176 486179 486184 483189
      486195 488198 492199 495200 498203 501204 503207 503210
      506224 506226 509230 513231 514223 516213 518207 520205
      527204 530202 535204 538199 542198
 0.01 518273 519269 519263 518257 514250 511245 509243 507240
      504239 500240 497242 495246 495251 497257 500263 505267
      507272 514276 518273
 0.01 525698 525695 523693 521692 520694 520697 520699 522701
      524701 525698
 0.01 360854 350842 347838 343840 340849 335856 328863 323868
      318869 314873 311873 307875 300880 296884 295888 296895
      298899 305901 310901 315899 322896 329891 337887 344882
      347879 349875 354868 360854
 0.01 276803 274799 270797 265795 260794 254794 249797 246800
      244805 242815 242822 247825 250822 257820 263821 267825
      270826 269824 266821 264816 263814 264812 269809 273807
      276803
 0.25 504670 503666 501665 498664 496667 496671 494669 491662
      486653 482647 477643 475645 474649 473657 470665 469673
      470683 469692 467699 464709 464716 466722 468730 468736
      466739 463744 462748 462753 464763 464774 461781 455788
      452793 452804 453815 451821 448829 446838 444848 444860
      443868 439875 430885 424898 421908 420912 421917 423920
      426920 430919 435921 439935 440941 439947 438957 439966
      440971 443975 449973 455969 462959 466952 470944 477927
      482913 487898 489888 493880 497863 499854 500844 501835
      502824 501813 502801 502777 502756 500734 499686 502679
      504670
 0.25 480130 480125 476120 473117 471113 471105 469099 464087
      461078 457069 451059 445051 439043 435034 430025 426022
      420022 411024 401024 396022 393018 388016 384020 373061
      370064 368069 367075 365079 362083 359088 355100 354106
      356111 360112 364110 368106 369101 372095 375091 382086
      389081 394080 400079 406080 411083 417090 425095 434101
      437104 440109 443113 444119 446124 448128 451132 455135
      461137 464134 468132 472132 480130
 0.25 420157 419154 419152 419149 418151 417152 415153 415154
      413155 414158 416158 417158 418160 418159 420157 420157
 0.25 411117 413115 412115 410114 408113 407112 405113 403114
      403116 404117 406118 408118 410118 411117 411117
 0.25 346930 348925 346921 343922 340923 338926 337928 335930
      334934 336937 339937 341935 343934 345932 346930
 0.25 332993 330989 326987 321986 315987 312988 308990 305994
      304997 306000 309001 315002 320001 324000 328999 331995
      332993
 0.25 261803 261802 260801 259801 257800 255800 254801 252801
      251802 250803 250804 249806 249808 250810 251811 253811
      254810 255810 256809 257807 258807 260805 261803 261803
 0.50 498771 497763 495757 492751 489748 485743 484735 485717
      484701 484692 484685 484677 483671 480668 478670 476677
      477694 472704 470712 470721 472728 472736 470749 472764
      473773 472781 469786 465792 463796 460803 460818 458825
      458833 454848 453854 453863 452871 450876 446888 448906
      445933 447943 447949 447954 449958 451960 454959 461952
      467942 473930 478917 482904 485892 489877 493863 496850
      498836 498799 498783 498771
 0.50 466105 465098 462091 459082 456074 448062 438050 431038
      426033 417030 409029 403031 394032 389037 378066 374071
      374080 375083 379082 382080 383076 383071 386068 393071
      402073 411075 416078 420084 426090 428093 433093 437088
      437080 438076 442077 447082 449088 447097 451105 455113
      459114 461111 466105
 0.50 325992 324992 322991 321991 319992 317992 315992 313993
      311993 310994 311995 313996 314996 315997 317997 317996
      319996 320995 322994 324993 325992
 1.00 493812 492803 491796 489795 487796 482801 475808 468821
      466826 464832 463840 461849 460856 461865 462870 462875
      459881 456888 456896 456905 455913 454922 453928 454937
      455942 456945 463939 470927 474916 478900 481886 483869
      489858 490852 492843 493836 493828 493812
 1.00 462104 462099 461096 460094 458091 456088 455088 454090
      452095 453100 454103 456105 458107 460106 462104
 1.00 455081 454080 454078 453076 451073 450071 449070 448069
      447068 445069 444070 445072 446073 448075 450077 450078
      451079 452080 453082 454082 455081
 1.00 430056 429050 427046 421039 419036 414034 405035 397039
      394041 391045 390050 390054 392059 395062 399064 405064
      415064 423060 426059 430056
 1.50 490841 490835 489829 487818 486815 483817 478823 475830
      472838 471841 471848 474855 480859 482860 485857 488849
      490841
 1.50 473887 473884 471886 468892 466898 463904 461910 460920
      460927 462928 464927 467922 470915 472908 472900 473890
      473887
 1.50 458101 458098 457096 455097 455098 456101 456102 458101
 1.50 424053 423046 419041 414039 407038 401040 397044 395050
      397057 402060 409060 414059 420056 424053
 2.00 482842 482839 482837 481834 479834 479835 478836 477837
      476839 476840 476841 477842 478845 480845 480844 481843
      482842
 2.00 420048 419045 417045 412043 408041 404042 401045 399048
      399053 402057 407058 411056 415053 417049 420048

$$





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