Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 160626
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 16/1200 UTC THRU JUN 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CNTL PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EWD INTO THE
MID ATLC/NE

GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FCST ACROSS THIS REGION WITH UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING IN A BROADLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATRN ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS
VALLEY/MIDWEST REGION..WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE RT ENTRANCE JET
SUPPORT FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE MID ATLC.  THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH SOMEWHAT HIER FOCUS ACRS THE EAST COAST AND
MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY.  ACRS THE EAST COAST...STABLE HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING DEEPER MSTR AND
INCREASING INSTABILITIES TO DVLP ACRS THE REGION ON FRI/FRI NIGHT
WITH DECENT WAA PATRN ACRS NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTING MDTLY HEAVY RAIN
TOTALS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONTAL BNDRY.
 POTNLY HEAVIER SHWRS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLC REGION WITH WEAK NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING SOME SLOW MOVING BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT COULD LEAD TO
ISOLD HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS THERE.  ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY/MIDWEST
REGION...MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FRI
AFTN/NIGHT INITIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF OF STATIONARY FRONT AND
WEAK SFC LOW DVLPG AHEAD OF JET STREAK PUSHING ACRS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WITH MODELS SHOWING STGLY DIFFLUENT THICKNESSES..HIGH
INSTABILITY..AND MODEST SWLY WAA DIRECTED INTO THE STALLED
FRONT...INGREDIENTS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID CELL GROWTH WITH
POTNL FOR MULTIPLE CELL CLUSTERS OR PERHAPS MCS DVLPMENT.  MODELS
HOWEVER SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND
PLACEMENT ACRS THIS REGION LEADING TO RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF
DETAILS.  FOR THIS REASON...HAVE TAKEN A MORE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH TO THE QPF..TAKING A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  AT THIS TIME IT WOULD APPEAR THE
GREATER THREAT OF HEAVIER RAINS WOULD TEND TO FOCUS FROM PARTS OF
IOWA SWD INTO NRN MO AND PERHAPS ERN KS WITH LATEST HIGH RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTNL FOR ISOLD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 3 INCHES...THOUGH HAVE KEPT AREAL AVG AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LESS
THAN AN INCH GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL QPF SPREAD.

...PAC NW INTO THE NORTHER ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HI PLAINS...AND
INCLUDING PARTS OF ND/NRN MN.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG E/W PAC JET AND ASSOCD MOISTURE PLUME WILL
PUNCH RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH THE NRN INTER MOUNTAIN
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY 1 PD.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SCTD
SHOWERS FOCUSING PREDOMINANTLY OVER THE MORE WRN FACING
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS FROM THE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
WA CASCADES EWD THROUGH THE SAWTOOTH AND BITTERROOTS AND INTO THE
TETONS/BIG HORN MTN RANGES.  FOLLOWED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND APPROACH
USING HIER RES GUIDANCE FOR TOPO DETAILS MOST AREAS.  ADDITIONAL
SCTD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SRN CANADA INTO THE PARTS OF NRN ND/MN. MOST OF THE PCPN ACRS THE
LATTER AREA SHOULD BE GENLY LIGHT BUT A FEW ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS
UP TO AN INCH MAY BE PSBL IN STGR CONVECTIVE CELLS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING.


...GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FL...

SCTD DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACRS THIS REGION
WITH HIGH DEEP LAYERED MSTR REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK HI LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINING ALONG OR NEAR THE NRN GULF.
EXPECT HEAVIER RAINS ACRS FL TO MAXIMIZE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
CONVERGENCE OF ACTIVE SEA BREEZES.  THE RATHER WEAK FLOW COMBINED
WITH HIGH MSTR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME ISOLD HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CNTL/ERN GULF COAST REGION.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 17/12Z
 0.01 555119 555113 554105 551093 547080 539073 532066 527059
      522049 518041 513031 511026 509019 504998 494957 488933
      484921 479909 477905 475902 470909 468901 469892 470886
      470878 473855 479837 477827 476822 475815 473810 469806
      463802 459799 459793 462788 467789 480787 484791 487796
      490800 492805 495820 498829 499835 501841 508859 514861
      517863 517860 529812 531801 532786 534768 534754 532748
      531740 531733 529728 527711 525708 524704 524697 523691
      521686 519673 516669 513668 507664 493656 486630 483625
      480624 475624 471625 463634 459638 454636 451633 448632
      442633 439635 433642 429649 426658 423665 419673 414679
      405682 401684 396686 374693 362697 354702 349714 343721
      338729 334735 331739 327742 320749 310753 304755 299757
      279761 264767 249776 245778 243782 238790 237795 235801
      233813 237833 241835 245835 250829 252826 256826 259826
      262830 264835 266838 270843 276849 280857 284866 286871
      284877 283882 283889 282894 283899 285905 286912 290924
      296929 301934 301928 302925 305926 306930 308933 320947
      327951 330952 334951 337948 341946 348950 351952 353955
      355960 357963 358966 357969 354973 355983 356989 361992
      367994 371993 379988 387984 394982 391990 380003 374008
      375010 379010 394002 401998 408991 415985 421978 431971
      435968 437964 441953 444944 446930 446923 447918 458906
      462917 464922 466922 465925 465930 465943 469953 472967
      475978 477987
 0.01 477987 480001 481008 476006 473004 470999 465991 455976
      450971 445970 442968 438971 435975 429983 428997 428012
      428038 426050 426063 426070 427075 430082 429086 425087
      423090 421096 421104 420118 420121 424123 428125 432125
      436126 436133 434141 432146 433154 434160 434164 432166
      430168 433172 438173 441174 441178 438184 437190 437197
      440205 446210 451209 454206 456199 459194 464186 468183
      472182 476182 480186 482190 482196 477204 471203 468208
      464209 459206 456210 450213 445214 440212 438209 436209
      436212 435217 431217 424221 422225 426230 428234 427236
      421237 416236 416239 418243 425250 429259 432261 436262
      444262 450257 453252 457250 466245 469244 474245 479248
      483251 494264 505279 508278 508273 506266 505259 507256
      510257 515259 519258 520253 519249 516241 515235 516228
      517221 519215 524216 528219 533218 536214 538204 538196
      537189 539185 541179 541168 540155 541147 542138 543135
      546132 551132 555119
 0.01 495125 495117 494112 491104 488094 489088 488083 484062
      481052 480047 477046 469041 467039 464043 461045 460048
      460052 461062 463085 465090 469092 470102 475109 470113
      471118 473121 480125 488130 491131 493127 495125
 0.01 438787 435785 433785 428788 421792 415795 409798 404800
      401802 396808 391815 387820 381826 378825 376826 368838
      363845 359852 355859 354868 354872 352879 353890 353902
      355910 357921 364920 371918 372916 371914 369911 368905
      370900 374893 385886 394871 397865 401859 406850 409843
      411836 413826 415816 418809 422803 424799 427797 433792
      438787
 0.01 330800 329799 327799 325801 323802 322802 320804 318805
      316805 315807 314809 315810 317810 319810 320808 322807
      324806 325805 327804 328803 329802 330800
 0.01 329018 329016 327018 325018 323018 321020 323021 325021
      325020 327019 329019 329018
 0.01 308028 307027 305027 304028 303029 302030 301031 300032
      299033 299034 301034 303032 304032 306030 307030 308028
      308028
 0.25 540113 541105 540100 538094 536091 534087 531085 529087
      528092 529098 530103 532109 533113 536116 540114 540113
 0.25 528191 528188 527185 526182 523179 521178 519178 517180
      516183 515187 515190 516194 517197 521198 523197 526196
      527193 528191
 0.25 510165 511162 511160 511157 510155 510154 509153 508154
      508156 507159 507161 507164 507167 508167 509165 510165
 0.25 493705 492695 487687 484682 482672 477659 473657 468660
      463664 456668 450669 447663 445657 442656 439657 432667
      425681 418692 413701 411704 411709 411714 410716 409724
      410732 415735 417738 417743 414748 411751 409755 407757
      404758 397757 390760 385763 382765 378766 372764 367761
      361761 356764 348776 345782 343788 337799 332809 333814
      342813 352817 357816 362811 367809 373808 381806 386802
      394791 405769 426754 433745 438741 442736 444734 448733
      453737 457740 461740 465738 470736 477734 488734 490731
      492726 493720 493705
 0.25 503024 503023 502021 501018 500016 500013 499011 498009
      496008 495010 496013 496015 497016 497018 498020 498021
      499023 499024 500026 501027 502026 503025 503024
 0.25 479216 479214 477214 475214 473215 472215 470215 470216
      468216 467217 466219 467222 469221 470220 471220 473219
      475218 476218 477217 478216 479216
 0.25 482138 483135 480135 477134 472135 470138 462139 458136
      454137 447143 444145 440144 436148 436152 437157 440160
      446168 450175 448183 446186 453188 458182 459178 456177
      452172 454168 461165 465164 468166 472167 476165 478158
      477153 474149 475145 480142 482138
 0.25 489982 489980 489979 488977 488975 487972 486969 484968
      484969 483972 484974 484977 485980 485982 487984 489984
      489982
 0.25 467222 461217 456216 449217 442217 439217 436219 431222
      428224 431227 436230 443230 449229 456227 463226 467222
 0.25 453238 451236 448235 444235 442234 439236 437238 436240
      438243 441243 444243 447242 449241 451240 453238
 0.25 458111 459107 458104 457101 455092 448093 445095 441094
      438095 431094 430098 430104 430108 431113 437114 443113
      446115 450116 455112 458111
 0.25 455086 455081 454078 453073 453071 450069 447068 444067
      442067 440069 441073 443074 446077 448079 449080 451083
      454086 455086
 0.25 440909 439900 437892 436889 434888 427890 423890 422885
      419879 417878 415880 411883 398903 393908 390912 385922
      380935 376947 377952 375956 372961 369967 368972 372976
      378977 382975 386972 394963 403956 405956 407958 411957
      419950 427942 430942 433940 436935 438919 440909
 0.25 420872 419870 419869 418867 417866 416865 415865 414867
      414868 412870 412871 411873 411875 412876 414876 416876
      418876 419874 420872
 0.25 393708 389704 384702 378702 372704 364712 357721 350729
      346735 343739 342746 345747 348746 360741 366739 370735
      375730 378725 386718 391713 393708
 0.25 335921 335919 335918 335917 335915 334913 333912 331911
      330912 329913 328915 328917 328918 328919 330921 330922
      332923 333924 334924 335921 335921
 0.25 324900 326896 324893 322891 320889 318888 314886 313886
      311886 310890 311893 313895 315898 317899 320900 324900
      324900
 0.25 319838 316826 314820 308820 289812 284808 281803 288799
      288795 286793 282792 269792 259797 253799 249802 249808
      253810 261815 270821 280824 292825 297827 299832 299846
      300853 302857 306863 308860 314852 318845 319838
 0.25 299874 301872 300870 299868 299867 299868 297869 296870
      297872 297873 299874 299874
 0.50 484710 484704 482700 479696 477686 474680 471675 468675
      465676 458679 454683 448692 446700 446707 454715 456727
      459730 462730 465730 472726 476722 480718 483713 484710
 0.50 466154 466149 464148 459150 455152 450153 446150 443148
      440148 440153 444158 451159 456157 460155 466154
 0.50 457222 456218 452217 450219 448219 445219 442219 440219
      439224 441225 444225 446225 450224 451223 453222 457222
 0.50 455103 453098 450095 446099 441098 438098 434097 432099
      434104 435109 438110 442110 444106 445103 448102 453105
      455103
 0.50 442684 442675 440669 434671 431675 426684 421694 419699
      420707 417719 417724 419728 420729 423727 426724 428719
      435711 439707 442703 443697 441691 442684
 0.50 441713 440711 439713 438714 439715 441714 441713
 0.50 435916 436911 435906 434904 431903 422911 417913 414914
      412912 410908 408907 403909 398912 394917 392923 391931
      393934 397935 402932 405932 406936 407942 411944 414942
      417938 425931 433926 435916
 0.50 396770 396766 393765 389768 383771 377773 371776 371772
      367768 361766 358767 358770 359779 367782 361792 360797
      362798 367798 378796 384793 389790 392784 393780 396770
 0.50 381709 374710 369714 363719 358724 353730 350736 351740
      355740 362736 366732 371726 376721 380715 381709
 0.50 384965 384964 384963 382962 381961 380961 379960 378961
      377962 376963 375964 375965 375967 377969 379969 380970
      382969 383968 384966 384965
 0.50 349796 349791 349787 347784 345786 344789 343792 342794
      341797 340800 339804 342803 343802 346800 348798 349796
 0.50 286818 281816 273814 268810 268805 266802 257802 252806
      256810 262813 268817 271819 275819 283820 286818
 1.00 436681 434680 432682 430685 429688 427690 426693 425696
      426700 427704 431703 432701 433697 434693 435691 436688
      436683 436681

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