Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241833
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 25/0000 UTC THRU JUL 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...FRONT RANGE OF CO EWD INTO KS/OK/MO...

UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
OVER 2000 J/KG DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING (PER 21Z SREF MEAN FORECAST
FIELDS) AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING 1.25" ARE EXPECTED
TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACRS ERN CO SUNDAY AFTN WITH STORMS
BUILDING EWD ALONG COLD FRONT STALLING ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN
ADVANCE OF THIS COMPLEX ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE POOLING OF 1.75
TO 2" PWS MAXIMIZED ALONG 85H FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK REMNANT
MCV MOVING ACRS  ERN KS SUN NIGHT.  MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY IS QUITE POOR BOTH IN GLOBAL AND HI RES MODELS..LIKELY
DUE TO MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES AND RELATIVELY WEAK UPR FORCING..AND
THUS CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS IS LOW.  OVERALL TOOK AN ENSEMBLE
APCH OF LATEST WRF ARW/NMM/NAM HI RES AS WELL AS RECENT HRRR RUNS.
 THE WEAK BUT CONVERGENT 85H FLOW WITH AXIS OF HIGH PWS AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME SMALLER SCALE
TRAINING BANDS WITH SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES
ACRS PORTIONS OF KS INTO MO.

...MIDWEST INTO THE NRN MID ATLC/NE...

SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD
FROM THE CNTL GT LAKES/MIDWEST AS ASSOCD LOW LATITUDE UPR TROF
PROGRESSES EWD ACRS THE GT LAKES REGION.  WLY 85H FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF PA INTO SRN NY/NJ WHERE FLOW WILL
PARALLEL WEAK WARM FRONTAL BNDRY RETURNING NWD ACRS THE
REGION..PSBLY SUPPORTING SOME ORGANIZED HEAVIER TSTM
CLUSTERS/BANDS ACRS THE REGION SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF REMNANT MCV OVER
NRN OH.  FURTHER UPSTREAM..STG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE SUN
AFTN/EVEN ACRS PARTS OF NRN IL/IN/SRN WI WITHIN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PATRN SUGGESTING
POTNL BACKBUILDING OF CELLS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  MANUAL QPF WAS
BASED HIGHLY ON RECENT HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING WRF
ARW/NMM/HRRR GIVEN THE HIGHLY CONVECTIVE NATURE OF EXPECTED PCPN.

...SOUTHEAST/LOWER MS VALLEY/FL

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SE/FL THIS PD WITH AREA OF
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES..AT OR ABOVE 2"..UNDER UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING THE CENTRAL U.S.  WEAK MCV STILL EVIDENT ACRS ARKANSAS
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WSWWD TOWARD NE TX WHICH MAY HELP FOCUS
HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG/NEAR ITS TRACK.  OTHERWISE SEA BREEZE
CONFERENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL BE MAIN TRIGGERS/FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION.  ACROSS FL, A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN FL IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEX WHICH WILL LIKELY
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACRS SRN FL AS DEEPER TROPICAL
MSTR IS DRAWN NWD.   USED A BLEND OF MOST RECENT GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH CONTINUITY.

...DESERT SW...
SCTD PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT
BUT WEAK 7H/5H SW FLY ACRS AZ ALLOWING A SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MSTR
FROM ERN AZ NEWD ACRS NW INTO THE MTNS OF CO.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 533203 534197 534192 532181 530172 526163 521156 517155
      514152 505150 501149 499154 500161 506167 508171 508174
      506176 501175 498177 496178 494182 492187 490193 492204
      493207 496210 501207 507201 510199 514200 521207 526213
      531208 533203
 0.01 535859 535844 534838 533830 523818 519815 517811 516802
      514794 513786 512779 510776 509773 510771 511765 511760
      513749 513737 511730 510724 505710 501697 499691 496688
      490690 486689 471688 453688 448689 445688 434689 415689
      412691 410695 405703 399711 397719 396726 395729 392730
      390732 389736 384746 387756 390765 390769 387769 382774
      383780 381786 367799 360805 357808 355813 342824 333830
      329833 326837 321845 325852 331861 335869 341886 338896
      337898 334899 331897 323893 316885 316876 316869 314865
      312860 313854 313851 311847 309846 305845 301842 295834
      289829 286820 286813 288810 291807 293801 292795 291792
      284789 264789 252790 239793 234793 231796 229800 229806
      230812 232816 237822 245827 245832 247837 250841 250845
      246856 244864 242868 242873 247891 251899 255905 261912
      266921 271929 275937 276946 277958 283966 288973 292977
      297977 309978 319980 332981 341982 344983 346984 348986
      351993 352999 351004 347013 344024 342030 342038 343043
      343050 342053 340054 336053 333054 328053 325048 323046
      317045 314046 309049 311051 314050 319050 325055 326059
      333069 330073 327073 319075 313074 308073 302067 289054
      281051 276048 271047 253042 247042 242045 238045 236048
      242068 233070 230073 232075 235077 236080 239087 242095
      250099 257095 263095 266101 268104 273106 278105 284106
      288108 293109 302114 309121 315127 319127 322122 323119
      323114 322109 323104 327101 329099 332101 342112 347120
      353125 356126 360124 364123 365120 364118 358117 355115
      350108 346097 348091 354092 359094 364094 364091 360089
      356081 353077 356074 361073 367074 369075 370078 371084
      373087 378088 381085 385086
 0.01 385086 388085 386080 385077 387075 391069 393068 393064
      394057 398052 400049 404049 408047 415048 421048 425046
      448044 463030 463023 457023 454024 451024 444024 440025
      433025 428025 428030 421031 416031 410033 407033 408025
      409019 404009 399006 396002 391999 390996 391993 392977
      395963 398957 400950 404938 405930 406924 409910 412896
      418885 421881 423875 428862 430857 434852 438850 444848
      450846 454847 461847 463849 466849 471851 477850 482852
      490851 495851 500853 503857 508862 512864 515869 517871
      520871 523868 530862 535859
 0.01 408105 408099 406098 403104 399105 397103 396110 389111
      383113 380114 379117 384118 387116 394114 400111 402110
      405108 408105
 0.01 384070 385067 385065 384064 382064 381065 381067 382068
      382069 383071 384070
 0.01 368106 368104 366103 365103 364103 365104 366106 368106
      368106
 0.01 352071 351069 349069 348070 348072 347073 346074 347076
      349076 350075 351073 351072 352071
 0.01 328163 327160 326158 322156 319156 317154 314153 310152
      308151 306151 306154 308156 311158 313159 316161 318163
      321164 325164 328163
 0.25 492736 490728 485723 479722 473722 466723 462723 460721
      459716 456715 450714 444719 440724 436730 435733 437737
      443739 451738 461743 471749 476753 481755 489744 492736
 0.25 427741 424737 420735 416737 412740 404746 400746 399751
      399765 395777 393789 393794 388798 384801 385808 380818
      378823 377829 377834 378838 382840 386838 389833 393822
      396811 397805 401800 404799 409799 414789 415784 416777
      416770 419765 426743 427741
 0.25 419863 418853 415844 412844 411847 408854 405864 403871
      401880 402885 406886 410885 412882 416875 418867 419863
 0.25 390025 384021 381013 379008 379002 379995 379987 380981
      382977 386970 389964 389959 391945 390939 388936 386932
      382930 375911 377899 378890 376885 372883 368887 366892
      364900 360909 357917 354921 349922 344923 340921 338917
      334915 329917 325921 321922 315922 312921 310918 306911
      305898 305887 304877 302868 298858 293849 289843 284837
      282834 281828 279823 275820 270819 262817 260814 258810
      261806 259804 256804 257801 256798 253798 250800 243807
      241810 242813 247820 252822 254824 268835 284864 280883
      280904 282924 283935 285947 286952 289955 294962 302965
      308966 314965 330962 336961 339959 346954 354950 361945
      362952 364956 364960 361965 356969 352976 357980 360985
      361990 360001 359007 359012 360018 362021 367024 372027
      377028 383028 389027 390025
 0.25 382051 378047 372044 371043 367043 363045 358048 354052
      353055 354058 357060 361060 366059 371055 377053 382051
 0.25 379076 379074 378071 378070 377069 376068 375067 373067
      373068 373069 373071 373073 374075 376077 377078 379076
 0.25 340098 340096 340094 340093 339091 339090 338089 337087
      336086 335086 334086 333086 333088 333089 334090 335093
      336095 336096 338097 339098 340098 340098
 0.25 317110 318105 318100 315093 310088 304085 298081 292076
      286073 278070 262066 260065 257066 256070 257073 268083
      270089 272092 276093 285095 294095 297094 300096 303102
      307108 313113 316112 317110
 0.25 256083 256081 255080 254079 252078 250078 248078 247080
      248081 249083 250083 251084 253085 255085 256083
 0.50 414863 414858 412857 409859 408861 407866 406868 405871
      404876 406879 407878 411875 412873 412870 413865 414863
 0.50 407789 407785 407780 406775 405773 402773 400775 398777
      398781 398786 399790 402792 404793 406792 407789
 0.50 388959 388949 388942 384943 380941 377941 375947 374956
      373963 372972 375973 377972 382969 386965 388959
 0.50 376019 375010 371003 373000 373994 372985 371980 372974
      368978 364983 363994 366001 368005 367008 366013 368016
      372022 374023 375021 376019
 0.50 373050 372050 370050 370051 372051 373050
 0.50 338943 338937 337931 334926 330924 322929 318931 312932
      306925 302916 297907 296895 295891 292886 287884 284887
      290908 290914 289919 287924 287931 287937 288943 291947
      294947 300952 303956 308958 320957 328953 334949 338943
 0.50 315105 314103 314101 313097 311094 310092 308091 306093
      306098 307100 308103 311105 313107 315107 315105
 0.50 287083 286081 283078 281077 278076 274077 273079 275081
      276084 275086 275088 276090 280090 282090 284089 282086
      286085 287083
 0.50 251814 250812 249810 249809 247808 247809 248810 248812
      249814 250814 251816 251814
 1.00 384961 385959 385956 384954 382952 380953 380954 379956
      379958 379961 380963 382964 384963 384961
 1.00 327943 325942 323941 321943 321944 323945 325945 327944
      327943
 1.00 327937 327934 326933 325934 324934 324937 325938 326938
      327937

$$




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