Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150700
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 15/1200 UTC THRU AUG 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...USED A COMPOSITE BLEND OF REASONABLY CLUSTERED NBM/NMMB/NAM
CONEST AND WPC CONTINUITY/BIASED CORRECTED QPF AS A STARTING POINT
IN THIS COMPLEX PATTERN AND THEN APPLIED MANUAL MODIFICATIONS AS
PER STLT/RADAR/HRRR TRENDS...


....MID-MS/TN VALLEYS TO S-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC...

A WAVY MOISTURE-LADEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
CAROLINAS BACK INTO OK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS/RUNOFF ISSUES AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTERACT
WITH THE CORRESPONDING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. PWS OF 1.75 TO 2.25
INCHES INTERACTING WITH A STRING OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES...WHILE DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY MAY ENCOURAGE CELL
TRAINING. PERHAPS THE BEST POTENTIAL IN THIS ACTIVE WAVY FLOW MAY
BE OVER THE AR AND THE TN VALLEY AS INFLOW REBOUNDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SRN PLAINS MCVS AND WELL DOWNSTREAM OVER THE S-CENTRAL
MID-ATLC IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET
SUPPOPRT.

...PLAINS...

CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASINGLY FLOURISH AS HEIGHT FALLS/EMBEDDED
VORT ENERGY WITH APPROACH OF WRN US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/JET
ENERGIES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO/OVER A
WAVY N-CENTRAL US FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE
INSTABILITY AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE/LLJ INFLOW. WITH PWS
INCREASING TO AOA 2 INCHES UP THROUGH THE PLAINS...SUSPECT HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL OFFER POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES AND
QPF PROGS FOCUS QUITE A BIT OF ORGANIZED AFTERNOON/OVER NIGHT
ACTIVITY OVER THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK
LATER PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY.

...CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST...

DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SLOW MOVING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF
COAST. WHILE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MAY HAMPER DEVELOPMENT...STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND
GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SCHICHTEL


24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 524049 525041 526032 527013 527005 526997 526989 526979
      525960 524954 521951 515946 512943 509939 507934 504931
      501929 496926 486926 482925 479922 474915 469909 465909
      461910 456912 452911 444908 431909 420909 416905 415896
      415882 417868 419864 420861 423860 426859 429859 436855
      439852 439847 439842 437836 434829 430818 430815 433814
      437811 442810 445808 449805 452804 454803 455806 457810
      459815 464814 471807 475804 478798 485791 486786 489780
      493772 496763 502756 508753 507746 507739 506731 505726
      503719 502706 500691 497680 495676 494668 486640 483636
      480637 471644 468646 465646 458644 451645 447644 443642
      439642 435641 430643 421647 416649 413651 407656 396669
      389677 383685 380694 375703 372707 368711 363713 359718
      358722 356725 352728 348730 338731 332731 327733 323734
      319738 314747 310755 306763 301770 297772 292773 287774
      285776 279781 276784 275790 276793 279794 284796 265797
      255798 250797 245798 244803 246808 250816 254820 255824
      254828 256830 262835 269834 275833 277833 278836 280841
      281849 283858 285863 284868 281870 274871 270872 266876
      274896 267914 268920 269924 272933 278940 285947 292952
      301953 304953 307952 310949 316943 326932 330931 336930
      339932 340934 342940 344952 340964 339968 338970 335974
      331983 328992 322998 317005 314010 309013 306014 301014
      290014 281016 276020 274024 273028 270030 264030 253030
      258039 259049 262061 264070 269076 275082 284088 287093
      287098 297098 301101 304101 314101 319102 321100 323099
      324093 322089 320085 317083 314079 309072 305062 305058
      307053 311050 316052 329062 336063 341062 350060 354058
      358059 368059 373060 379062 382063 383060 386051 388055
      391058 397059 400064 400070 399076 396088 392096
 0.01 392096 391105 391112 396122 398124 401125 404123 412115
      418105 420100 422098 425100 429104 433107 442113 449122
      455115 458108 459099 457086 457052 460045 461043 463041
      467039 470039 472041 473046 473051 473054 476056 480057
      484060 503053 508051 513051 518049 524049
 0.01 494272 494270 494272 494272
 0.01 426791 425785 422782 419776 414758 409764 405771 404776
      403788 403791 400795 397801 394806 393810 393814 382839
      384866 388874 389883 388891 388896 389902 389905 391909
      397906 399905 401903 399901 398892 397888 396882 395872
      394864 396855 398839 403834 406828 412823 412812 414807
      418799 426791
 0.01 347838 347832 345827 343821 340812 339807 336804 332800
      331794 329792 327783 324780 320782 316788 313794 308799
      304801 304806 307809 310810 317811 321812 323815 325818
      325823 326834 330839 334846 337849 340847 345842 347838
 0.01 296968 296964 290962 287960 287955 285954 284960 281963
      279966 277970 279974 283975 288975 292972 294970 296968
 0.25 510978 490972 487966 482960 476957 471952 460940 457935
      453928 449922 446921 442923 438940 432945 428945 424944
      420944 417942 416938 412937 410944 407949 401952 397945
      394944 390946 388949 384951 380956 380967 380972 377980
      376986 374988 373985 370981 367980 359983 354987 350993
      342993 337997 333001 330010 329019 330027 333030 336032
      335035 336038 354029 355035 356038 358041 361038 362034
      365032 367030 368025 369019 373018 377017 381018 387031
      392036 396043 409051 411058 414064 418065 423067 424068
      426065 430056 433047 434041 436039 445039 464021 467020
      472021 479024 483024 487023 493020 498004 498992 504986
      508982 510978
 0.25 486684 485676 483670 482667 479663 473662 468668 463675
      459684 454690 450696 443713 445717 444722 444727 445732
      447737 450736 453729 456726 459727 462728 467729 470726
      473721 475712 476702 482698 485690 486684
 0.25 431655 427654 422654 413656 399669 393677 389686 386696
      384706 384714 386721 387727 386733 382737 381743 383748
      387750 395745 399742 401737 409719 412709 413701 414697
      421678 424667 429659 431655
 0.25 414090 414085 413082 411082 409083 406084 404086 405090
      405093 404095 404100 404103 405105 409105 411104 412101
      413096 413092 414090
 0.25 392792 390779 388774 386770 381768 379766 377761 373758
      364758 360757 357759 351766 346773 343777 342782 341786
      342792 354804 356809 356815 352817 351822 356822 359826
      364833 369831 373828 375826 375819 374812 375807 379800
      389797 392792
 0.25 394020 393016 392010 392006 391002 389999 383998 380000
      380006 381009 385012 387012 387015 387018 390019 393021
      394020
 0.25 381888 381886 381884 380882 380879 380877 380875 379874
      377874 376875 375876 375878 375880 375882 376882 376884
      376886 376889 376891 378892 379891 381889 381888
 0.25 379904 379902 378901 376902 375905 376906 378905 379904
 0.25 369905 367896 363891 361887 360882 358874 358868 357863
      355861 351861 346866 344873 342882 340884 339889 340910
      344928 346936 348939 352939 358936 362930 363914 367909
      369905
 0.25 346000 344999 343000 344001 346000 346000
 0.25 312028 312024 309022 305024 302023 299023 296025 292029
      288035 283041 286047 290049 294048 300046 304040 309034
      312028
 0.25 313928 313922 312916 310906 306897 302895 298894 295897
      293901 292906 293911 293916 292920 292924 293929 295933
      297937 300939 305939 310934 313928
 0.25 310869 310861 309856 305846 303838 303831 300827 296829
      290821 287821 286823 286827 289830 289835 290841 292845
      297855 299861 300867 301874 307874 310869
 0.25 291069 293065 292062 290060 286057 283058 279061 275062
      273065 273069 276072 280074 284074 289072 291069 291069
 0.25 270814 269812 267808 266806 263805 261804 258805 256806
      254808 254810 256812 258814 261815 264815 266814 268814
      270814
 0.50 477676 476674 476671 476669 474667 473668 472670 471671
      470673 470674 469676 469679 471680 471681 473681 474680
      475679 476678 477676
 0.50 481974 478970 473971 468970 465967 462959 459957 457958
      454959 439951 431953 427952 423949 419948 413949 410958
      409963 407966 402967 398964 396959 395953 395950 392951
      389953 385962 385967 384974 380984 380988 383991 389988
      391990 393995 397006 398013 404018 405023 405028 406036
      408040 411044 412048 417034 426034 429031 430026 427018
      429013 432009 436008 440005 444002 446002 458015 466010
      469007 471002 475996 478992 479987 479979 481974
 0.50 464981 465979 465976 464975 463976 462977 461979 460979
      460981 460983 462983 464982 464981
 0.50 456945 455942 454937 453935 452932 450929 448926 446928
      445933 447937 447940 448945 450946 453947 454947 456945
 0.50 419666 418661 416659 410662 401671 396677 394683 391691
      391699 391708 391717 391725 390729 391734 396732 400726
      403720 406715 409700 412692 414684 417671 419666
 0.50 427051 427049 427047 426046 425045 424046 424048 424051
      425052 427053 427051
 0.50 380784 379779 377777 374776 373772 374768 372765 369763
      365762 358763 354768 350774 348777 347783 349788 351789
      359790 363790 366791 375791 378789 380786 380784
 0.50 372001 371996 369992 366988 364987 360989 358994 357000
      357004 358007 362008 365007 367007 371003 372001
 0.50 361905 358901 355899 353894 354888 354883 353879 350876
      349880 347886 345888 343899 345910 346923 349932 354932
      357930 359926 359921 360907 361905
 0.50 340024 341021 341019 341017 340016 338015 336016 334017
      333019 332021 333023 334024 336025 337025 339024 340024
 0.50 302853 302852 301851 301848 300847 299849 299851 300852
      302853 302853
 0.50 264811 264809 263808 262807 260807 259807 258808 257809
      258810 259811 260812 262813 263813 264811 264811
 1.00 447983 445973 442966 438961 433961 421956 417959 416962
      414970 412980 410989 407991 404991 401991 400995 401000
      402005 402010 405012 412012 418013 425001 431997 436997
      446986 447983
 1.00 412673 411668 410669 403673 399679 397683 397689 398698
      398709 400712 402708 405701 408693 410685 411678 412673
 1.00 400977 399975 397972 394970 394968 394963 391961 389963
      388968 388972 386974 387979 389979 391978 394978 398979
      400977
 1.00 364996 364994 364993 362993 362994 364996 364996
 1.00 358910 358907 358905 357904 355905 353907 352908 352910
      351911 351912 351914 351915 352916 352919 353920 354921
      355922 356921 356919 356916 356914 356912 357911 358910
 1.50 440981 441976 440972 436970 432968 429966 426966 421968
      419973 415987 415991 415994 413996 410995 408997 406003
      407006 411004 415001 418001 422999 426995 429992 434990
      438988 440981 440981
 1.50 408679 408677 407676 405676 404677 403678 402679 401681
      400683 400686 400688 401690 402692 404692 404691 405689
      405688 406686 407685 407684 407681 408679 408679
 2.00 433985 432983 433980 433978 431975 429972 426972 424973
      422975 421980 421982 420987 419992 422993 424992 426989
      428987 431986 433985

$$





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