Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 271901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 28/0000 UTC THRU SEP 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

MODEL QPF PERFORMANCE IS STEADY FOR THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM. THE
DAY 1 PERIOD THROUGH 00Z MONDAY CHANGED VERY LITTLE. SOME OF THE
INDIVIDUAL GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THAT INCORPORATE THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HEAVIER THAN THE GOING WPC FORECAST...BUT WE STUCK
CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSERVATIVE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE 09Z SREF
MEAN. ALTHOUGH THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW WILL FAVOR CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION...ITS INTENSITY WILL TEND TO DECREASE BY LATE THIS
EVENING OR TOMORROW MORNING WHEN THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE STACKED
AND THE PLUME OF GREATER PACIFIC MOISTURE IS REDUCED THROUGH
CONSUMPTION BY CONVECTION AND THROUGH DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW. WE DID USE THE GEFS REFORECAST DATA TO ENHANCE AMOUNTS
LOCALLY ALONG SOME OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED MOUNTAIN CHAINS THAT
WILL INTERCEPT STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS INCLUDED
A SLIGHT INCREASE TO FORECAST AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL AZ AND PARTS OF
EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO.

...GULF COAST...

A BROADLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF...WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS A MEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...POSITIVELY TILTED...APPROACHES AND AMPLIFIES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL TWO SWATHS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ONE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND ANOTHER FORMING INLAND ALONG INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING. THE
LATTER BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT ON DAYS 2 AND 3...BUT BEGINS TO OPEN
UP WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MS/AL BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WE EXPANDED RAINFALL WESTWARD A
BIT...AND MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO AMOUNTS BY NUDGING THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE SREF MEAN AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF
OUR IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE.

BURKE

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 509028 508992 513925 509889 499868 485871 476901 480936
      477970 477981 478989 478998 477009 473028 470035 467041
      465045 461050 456060 451063 449064 445063 442059 440051
      437046 431042 417038 414038 411039 405042 401044 395048
      390054 385058 381059 378059 375057 370053 365050 360047
      354046 345045 331048 325050 323055 328059 336059 341061
      343062 344065 343068 340069 335071 324074 319077 316080
      309090 307096 303102 300109 303115 316120 335130 341132
      348133 354132 362133 365135 369134 372136 377139 383140
      387139 391142 394143 396144 396147 392148 388147 382148
      378150 375154 372159 372166 373169 373173 368177 364177
      362179 360181 361184 365191 369195 379204 392211 403217
      413218 418218 422215 431207 435204 438197 441191 444185
      452176 453171 449165 447163 448160 452159 455157 455152
      458146 459144 462146 466147 469144 474141 479141 486144
      491147 498148 499143 498140 495134 496122 497111 498107
      499100 500088 505057 506048 507041 509028
 0.01 442909 442904 441901 438901 434902 433903 431904 429907
      427909 425912 426914 428917 431917 433916 436915 438913
      440911 442909
 0.01 435952 436948 435944 431940 426937 423931 419928 413926
      403926 397926 393929 388933 384938 386940 393940 396937
      402934 409944 412948 417951 428955 435952
 0.01 428987 428978 426973 421968 417970 410970 407974 405975
      403979 403984 405986 408987 415988 420991 426990 428987
 0.01 410162 410159 411157 411155 411152 411150 410149 408148
      407149 407152 407154 406156 406158 405161 405163 406164
      408163 410162
 0.01 360823 359818 357816 348818 346820 343820 338819 334817
      331813 330807 332801 336798 339792 340786 340781 337775
      337769 334760 329754 325753 321755 314761 308767 302776
      298787 295796 290802 286809 269803 264802 270801 274802
      281801 283798 280793 271790 268789 263789 258790 255792
      250793 246795 243800 241805 240809 239815 242816 245815
      248812 255817 255821 257826 267862 258907 254925 250945
      246957 241965 238975 237982 236987 236998 241003 243008
      246011 254014 265015 276020 282020 285018 285013 282009
      276005 268001 262994 259990 257986 258980 263979 272975
      277974 281973 282970 282967 280962 278959 279954 283946
      292930 298924 307918 316915 328913 336910 341904 347896
      351888 356879 359869 358854 353844 353837 355831 360823
 0.01 292071 293066 291062 288061 284063 277065 270061 257054
      251051 243049 238045 235046 236049 239056 244061 254071
      265078 279086 284085 287079 286077 287074 292071
 0.25 503024 504012 502003 500998 498998 498994 498987 500961
      502948 504937 505925 505919 504913 502906 499906 496903
      492896 490898 489905 490919 491926 491934 490943 490955
      485975 486988 485000 484014 483021 484030 484039 484050
      482062 479070 476073 473075 464077 461079 456080 449075
      446075 445078 441079 437077 431073 425067 422064 420060
      419057 416054 412055 409060 406063 402064 395066 390069
      387071 382071 374067 367065 363066 358067 359074 357077
      354081 349085 347087 346092 347098 349101 355106 362111
      368113 371114 376118 381119 384121 400124 409126 417130
      423136 427139 428143 429149 431152 436154 439153 444148
      448142 453134 459131 467132 475134 484136 486133 485130
      482125 480122 480118 482110 485101 488090 494070 497058
      500044 502034 503024
 0.25 427201 430189 430181 428177 427172 425167 422166 418169
      413175 409176 403174 394172 390170 387170 386172 384176
      381178 377180 374184 371184 369185 368188 370193 374195
      381200 387201 389200 389197 386194 388190 392189 398191
      402192 402195 401198 401201 403205 406208 410209 414210
      419209 424206 427201
 0.25 349119 349114 348110 344100 342091 340087 337084 333082
      328081 326083 323087 320097 318101 318108 322115 325118
      330118 339119 343121 347121 349119
 0.25 341878 340862 341850 337843 332840 329839 324839 306839
      297830 291826 283827 278827 270824 269825 267827 269830
      271831 274834 275843 275853 274873 271889 267915 266932
      274937 282932 292921 295917 301913 308909 315905 321904
      329902 335898 338891 341878
 0.25 334778 333770 328764 322762 314766 312768 312772 317771
      320773 323781 323783 318785 314789 313794 310796 305797
      301797 297801 296808 303810 314807 322805 330793 332786
      334778
 0.25 264066 264064 262062 261061 259060 257061 256061 256063
      257064 258065 260067 262067 264066 264066
 0.25 263815 263813 262811 262810 261809 260808 258808 257809
      257811 258813 258814 260815 261815 262815 263815
 0.25 267966 265960 264954 261952 257953 254956 250962 248967
      246972 246975 248977 255976 259974 264971 267966
 0.50 499029 501018 500010 498011 496016 494023 493031 492041
      490048 488055 488062 491061 493058 495052 496044 498036
      499029
 0.50 496942 496939 496937 495939 496942 496943 496942
 0.50 475109 476090 474087 469086 465087 462089 459092 453094
      445092 440088 435085 431080 425075 419072 413073 408072
      403077 397079 390078 387078 383077 378072 371068 367068
      365070 364075 366084 369090 370105 373107 377109 384107
      387107 389111 388116 391118 404121 411122 417123 425126
      432126 445124 455115 475109
 0.50 424198 425193 424190 423186 422183 418184 416186 415189
      413191 411195 411197 411200 412203 415204 417203 420202
      422200 424198
 0.50 403181 401181 399179 397180 396182 397183 399184 400184
      402183 403181
 0.50 384198 384196 384195 383194 381192 380191 379190 378189
      376188 375188 373187 371188 372190 372191 374192 376193
      376194 377195 379196 379197 380198 382198 384198 384198
 0.50 365103 363101 361100 358098 356096 355094 353092 352095
      353097 354102 355104 357105 361106 364105 365103
 0.50 345114 344107 342100 340095 337091 332087 329087 328092
      327099 324104 324111 325114 329115 335115 342115 345114
 0.50 332778 332776 331774 330772 329771 328770 327770 325769
      325771 326773 326775 326777 326779 327781 327783 327784
      329783 331783 332781 332780 332778
 0.50 336876 336861 336852 331849 328846 325845 321846 314846
      307846 293831 289830 284832 281834 281838 280844 279871
      273896 272908 274914 277919 283920 288916 296910 299910
      304908 311900 315898 320899 326898 330893 332884 336876
 0.50 259968 260966 259964 260962 259960 257961 256962 255962
      254964 253966 252967 251968 250970 250971 250972 252972
      254972 255970 257970 257969 259968 259968
 1.00 440108 442104 440101 438095 433090 430087 427085 423086
      422091 425098 421102 418109 421114 426115 431113 436112
      440108
 1.00 411113 411108 411105 411100 411094 412090 412088 411087
      409089 407092 406095 404100 404102 402106 401109 401112
      403114 406115 408114 411113
 1.00 395101 394098 394097 392097 392098 392099 393100 393102
      395101 395101
 1.00 390086 386083 382082 379078 374074 372075 370079 371084
      373090 375091 374096 374102 375104 379103 381099 385093
      389089 390086
 1.00 340109 340104 339102 338098 336096 335095 333095 331099
      330101 329105 328109 329112 332112 335111 337110 340109
 1.00 322883 322881 321879 319878 319879 318881 320883 322885
      322883
 1.00 311886 309873 310865 309858 301848 297843 293841 288845
      286852 285858 284867 283875 281883 280898 279906 282909
      286910 297903 302900 307895 311886
 1.50 376085 376082 375081 375082 374084 375085 376085 334103
334104 334103
 1.50 408105 408103 408100 408099 407100 406102 407105 407106
      408105
 1.50 305882 306869 306863 304859 298853 294851 291852 287860
      286873 285883 284893 286905 289903 293900 300895 304888
      305882
 2.00 303880 304871 303863 300859 295857 291860 290866 289874
      289882 288889 289893 291894 296891 300888 303882 303880
 3.00 299872 299870 299868 297866 295867 295868 294870 294871
      293872 293874 293876 293878 294880 294881 296881 298880
      299878 299876 299874 299872 299872

$$





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