Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
402
FXUS04 KWBC 151824
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 16/0000 UTC THRU MAY 17/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...

VERY LARGE SCALE AND RATHER STRONG H5 TROF ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE U.S. FROM THE PLAINS WESTWARD WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE PLAINS TO THE WEST COAST
STATES..WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION/RAINFALL
EXPECTED.  TWO SUCH AREAS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION..MOSTLY RAIN BUT WITH SOME MODERATE SNOWS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS..WILL BE OVER PARTS OF THE AZ INTO SOUTHWESTERN
CO AND OUT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS..BOTH OF WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EASTWARD AT THE BASE OF THE
H5 TROF.  THE FAVORABLE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN AZ
AND SOUTHWESTERN CO WILL SEE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS..PLEASE
SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THIS SNOWFALL EVENT.  OUT IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS..ALONG WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS WE WILL SEE A
FAVORABLE CONTINUED UPPER DIFLUENT PATTERN IN PLACE AND A
PERSISTENT MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING IN VERY HIGH
PWS..ALL OF WHICH WILL LEAD TO ORGANIZED AND INCREASINGLY HEAVY
CONVECTON  ESPECIALLY FROM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.  MUCH
OF THE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SOUTHERN
PLAINS EVENT..SO GENERALLY TOOK A BLEND BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE HIRES GUIDANCE.  A THIRD REGION OF HEAVIER
RAINS/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS WILL STRETCH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  IN THE PLAINS..A BROAD AND
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
H5 TROF..SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM NE AND SD
INTO ND.  THE PLAINS GULF MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES UNDER WHAT WILL BE A LONG PERIOD OF A FAVORABLE
UPPER DEFORMATION/COMMA HEAD PATTERN ..SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY
LOWER ELEVATION RAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MT INTO NORTHERN WY AND BACK INTO ID.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS
PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION AREA..SO STAYED CLOSE TO THE QPF GUIDANCE.


...OH VALLEY BACK INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES...

THE RATHER WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AT THIS TIME..AS PER WATER VAPOR PIX..IS FORECAST SIMILARLY
BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE MID
AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.  A
BROAD 20-30 KTS OR SO OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF IT WILL
BRING CONTINUED HIGHER PWS INTO THE REGION.  EXPECT THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND THE RATHER HIGH
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EVENTUALLY THRU THIS ENTIRE AREA..AND ESPECIALLY SO
LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON DURING TIME OF BETTER
HEATING.  SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE..BUT KEPT AREAL
AVERAGE TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCH RANGE.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 17/00Z
 0.01 534185 536175 536167 536160 535155 532144 528141 524140
      515140 507133 499126 497121 498112 499103 498096 496089
      496084 502063 516022 520998 520981 518971 517964 514957
      512949 509946 502941 492942 484942 479941 474939 470935
      468930 464921 457903 453896 451891 448889 435880 431878
      429875 428872 428858 430846 432840 431835 433828 432820
      431814 431809 432806 444791 455776 463762 461751 456744
      454742 453739 451734 450730 451728 453725 455714 455701
      447695 440694 436695 434701 431708 428712 412719 403722
      397727 388742 383752 382761 379783 376794 373803 359819
      356823 353825 348833 338847 337857 335861 330861 324857
      319850 314840 310831 305822 299818 291814 288811 286807
      284798 282795 278793 273792 269788 265787 257789 255793
      255799 255803 252805 249808 249812 253820 256828 263834
      275841 284845 282853 279875 275886 274892 276896 278902
      281905 284914 289922 292925 298927 304927 308930 312938
      313948 311959 307965 301970 292974 289975 286978 282980
      280983 279988 280992 282997 283998 282001 277002 274006
      271010 270017 271022 274024 278027 282027 293028 298028
      300029 301032 302036 306037 313041 316040 322040 327039
      333039 339039 342040 344042 348045 350050 350057 348061
      342067 347072 348075 347078 340077 334076 329077 319096
      304108 296120 297126 298129 301131 305132 308129 311128
      313130 315140 314147 311150 303147 299145 294144 288143
      285145 286149 288152 297158 304164 314170 323176 329177
      332175 334172 333167 333156 335146 337140 340144 344146
      348146 355144 359141 361137 363132 363125
 0.01 363125 364123 366122 368122 370118 369115 369105 372101
      375099 380100 382097 385095 390091 395090 398092 399102
      394106 388111 382116 379117 377120 375123 374129 376132
      379134 381138 380144 377148 376150 375155 376160 375172
      373178 369180 366182 362181 360181 360183 363185 369190
      374195 380201 383203 385205 392212 399216 407218 410216
      414215 420211 424206 428200 434195 437201 444199 449195
      453189 459183 464179 469175 472171 474174 475188 479193
      485198 479203 474208 469212 456216 448217 441219 435225
      435228 439229 451226 457224 461225 463227 476218 480218
      483217 487219 489221 493228 498237 504250 509254 513256
      517257 519256 523248 522244 521239 519231 515224 511217
      503214 501213 500210 499206 497196 499192 502189 506187
      510189 517190 521186 524182 527182 528184 530187 532187
      534185
 0.01 417232 417231 415230 414229 414228 412227 411228 410229
      409230 410231 411232 413232 415233 416233 417232
 0.01 386040 387034 386031 384030 379029 377024 372026 368028
      368034 369039 371044 373048 376048 380046 383043 386040
 0.01 336058 336056 334055 332055 330055 329055 328055 327057
      328057 330058 332058 334058 336058 336058
 0.25 530173 529167 527165 525160 522153 518148 513145 508142
      505141 503142 503147 504150 507154 512158 516162 521166
      525170 530173
 0.25 503024 503015 503008 502994 501977 500972 498971 496972
      494976 490978 483984 472969 458958 438953 428954 419958
      400959 389961 380963 372963 362962 351962 342964 329975
      321993 319999 319003 322007 323013 319021 318024 319028
      323030 333029 341026 349023 356018 371007 381003 388999
      392997 397996 401997 405998 411005 419009 421016 422021
      428030 433037 438046 440050 439056 436066 436072 439076
      440083 438087 435092 431093 430105 414144 411149 410155
      411167 411174 413180 416183 417190 419193 424193 430188
      435181 436178 435175 437171 442170 445172 453177 458175
      462172 467164 470159 472152 472144 474139 477137 481136
      491137 491132 490127 488115 487108 487101 489087 494061
      497050 500039 503024
 0.25 440760 438749 435743 425754 420760 416766 414772 413779
      413790 414800 417810 415819 413823 411825 407825 404824
      402825 400828 397828 395826 389828 385832 377846 372852
      368856 359864 353868 346870 338872 330872 323870 316870
      311869 308867 305863 301858 295861 287874 286883 286893
      288900 291905 296909 301912 311912 318911 324911 333913
      337917 341923 339937 337947 339955 342958 347957 351953
      359944 363939 366932 372916 373907 376899 383891 392881
      401878 405873 410865 410857 409847 411839 415834 417827
      419817 422810 424803 426794 430780 440760
 0.25 434140 435136 433133 431132 428132 426134 426139 426144
      426148 425153 425158 427158 428158 430156 432152 432147
      433143 434140
 0.25 419735 419733 419730 418729 416729 415730 413731 412732
      411733 411735 410736 409737 409740 409742 409745 411745
      412744 413743 414742 415741 416740 417738 418738 419735
      419735
 0.25 392075 392070 391068 384063 377062 368061 362063 361065
      361068 364071 367072 369076 372083 374086 377089 381088
      384086 388082 392075
 0.25 353119 349110 346099 342089 338086 334088 331093 329098
      327104 326111 324116 323124 324130 326132 328131 335123
      340124 344126 349124 352120 353119
 0.25 295830 294826 292824 286819 284812 278809 271808 268809
      267812 269815 268819 266821 269822 276824 283827 289830
      295830
 0.50 519156 518156 517154 517153 516152 514153 515155 516156
      517157 518158 519156
 0.50 496026 497016 496008 495999 493994 492992 484001 481006
      478012 476019 473024 468026 461027 457023 455015 453007
      454003 455998 457993 460987 461982 460979 457973 454968
      448965 441973 424991 422997 422004 425018 428024 432028
      442037 451046 462047 463053 462057 459063 447066 443069
      444077 444085 442091 438095 436101 433110 434115 436118
      439123 440131 439139 437146 437151 438153 441156 447160
      451163 453169 457171 459169 466159 467154 464148 462140
      461136 462132 466128 471125 475122 479117 485081 488065
      490048 493034 496026
 0.50 420782 421780 421778 420776 419778 418780 419783 420783
      420782
 0.50 396982 395977 396972 393971 387970 382972 372972 367972
      362970 359968 352968 343971 336976 330983 328989 329996
      331001 333004 334007 333010 330014 327018 327022 329023
      335021 343017 358009 367004 374999 382995 389990 394986
      396982
 0.50 391865 390862 387860 382861 379862 366869 355877 348881
      343881 335880 326880 310878 305874 302872 299871 294877
      291883 290891 291895 294899 300902 304903 308902 323897
      329894 337897 350903 353905 354908 353916 350935 352938
      355936 359930 362923 364913 366905 369899 372892 377886
      386876 390870 391865
 0.50 384079 384074 383071 382067 380065 377065 373064 370066
      371068 373071 374075 374078 375082 377083 380083 382081
      384079
 0.50 344111 344107 343102 342096 340093 336093 334097 332103
      331107 331113 334115 339115 344114 344111
 1.00 474091 476082 474076 472073 468076 464078 464074 462072
      457074 451075 449079 448087 449094 447099 444105 444108
      450117 455117 459114 465107 471098 474091
 1.00 375985 375983 371983 364982 355981 351980 349978 345977
      343979 339981 338984 336988 337992 342995 349995 357993
      360990 364990 367988 371989 375985

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.