Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
114
FXUS04 KWBC 031832
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
132 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID DEC 04/0000 UTC THRU DEC 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST...

BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AREAS
WHERE DROUGHT HAD BECOME WIDESPREAD. THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW
OVER MEXICO WAS REACHING PERHAPS ITS MOST MATURE PHASE...WITH
GREATEST DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION AND INFLECTION IN THE
FLOW...LEADING INTO THE STRENGTHENING OF A DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET
OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. RAINFALL WAS WIDESPREAD WITHIN
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN BETWEEN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST. RAINFALL WAS
ESPECIALLY FOCUSED WHERE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE
IN EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND ALSO WHERE THE DEEP
LAYER FORCING OVERLAPPED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND INSTABILITY
GRADIENT ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE INSTABILITY HERE IN SE
TX AND SW LA WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SHORT TERM RAIN RATES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. RATES FARTHER INLAND HAD BEEN MORE
TAME...ALTHOUGH STILL DELIVERING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING TO MUCH OF
THE REGION...AND SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LONGER
DURATION FLOODING IN THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS.

THE WSW-ENE ORIENTED GENTLY SLOPING FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
MAINTAINED WHILE SLIDING VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY 1
PERIOD. MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURES WILL BE MORE
NOTICEABLE. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CARRY RAIN EASTWARD...WITH GREATEST ENHANCEMENT REMAINING
ALONG THE 850-700 MB FRONT...ROUGHLY NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO FAR
NORTHERN AL/GA. ASSOCIATED VEERING OF LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL DRAG
THE POCKET OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF SE TX AND INTO SW LA.
MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW IN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
EASTWARD...AND SHOULD REINVIGORATE CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN AND OUT TOWARD  THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MESOSCALE DETAIL TO THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS...BUT THERE WAS DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT WPC PREFERRED FOR THE DAY 1
PERIOD...INCLUDING THE GFS...WRF-ARW...AND CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL.
THE WPC DETERMINISTIC FORECAST PLACES 3-5 INCHES AREAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST LA BEYOND 00Z TONIGHT...AND HI-RES
MODEL SIGNAL SUGGESTS ISOLATED TOTALS ABOVE 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE FLOW REGIME WAS INITIALLY ZONAL...WITH SEASONABLY AVERAGE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY LEADING TO SHOWERS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM
WAVE...WILL BEGIN AN AMPLIFICATION PROCESS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED EVENTUALLY BY A DUMP OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
UNITED STATES. A BRIEF UPTICK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE LEAD SHORTWAVE...WITH THE ENHANCEMENT MAINLY BEING
FELT ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER...ALONG WITH INCREASED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WILL FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES / PARTS OF ID/MT/WY...AS WELL. MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE INHERITED WPC FORECAST WAS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE GEFS REFORECAST ANALOG DATA. WE TRIED TO
INCORPORATE A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE 12Z NAM AND GFS TO BOOST
LIQUID TOTALS A LITTLE BIT IN THE MOST FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN.


...MIDWEST...

THE SHARPLY DEFINED TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS OUT OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP UP SOME MODEST RETURN MOISTURE...WITH UPGLIDE ON THE
295 TO 300 K SURFACE OVERLAPPING WITH 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 40
TO 80 METERS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. THROUGH
SUNDAY...WPC IS FORECASTING BROAD 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS
CENTERED AROUND EASTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF...PRODUCE SPOTS OF GREATER
THAN HALF INCH TOTALS...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A HALF INCH IS
RELATIVELY LOW IN THE GEFS...ECMWF ENSEMBLE...AND SREF.
THEREFORE...WE LEANED ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH RESPECT TO
MAGNITUDE...BUT WERE FAIRLY GENEROUS IN COVERAGE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE FORCING...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALREADY SHOWING UP IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

BURKE

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 530200 532187 530178 529169 526163 520148 512132 510123
      509118 509112 509103 511096 514085 518078 520075 521069
      522066 522061 521057 518054 513055 508059 505063 495075
      492078 489079 486080 482077 475074 470073 465076 465084
      467094 466100 462101 457095 455093 450091 428098 427102
      424104 421107 422110 420119 423120 424124 424130 424133
      422135 416139 418152 423170 422181 421187 419192 415213
      413219 409225 400235 399241 400245 403252 420259 430266
      449290 453290 456288 460283 468272 472266 477261 480259
      484259 488260 491258 494251 494246 495243 499237 503233
      505229 507224 507213 518208 522205 525204 530200
 0.01 533979 533971 532967 528957 527951 525947 520941 509934
      499924 495916 490909 489906 487900 485896 485890 487885
      485881 479874 469860 463854 458845 450829 448825 448819
      444812 436804 430797 428798 425796 424789 421785 419785
      417790 417795 418807 415814 407819 404822 399823 395821
      391821 386819 384819 383816 378810 374801 371796 369792
      366789 358779 351773 346769 335771 333772 331776 322790
      320793 321800 321807 320810 319820 318825 316830 309844
      296851 288861 286871 287875 286879 283889 282892 279891
      275888 272888 268890 267893 271898 277903 278908 277911
      271919 267925 262931 258937 255943 250957 247964 250972
      253975 254979 254985 244000 243004 243010 245014 249016
      251022 256030 259037 261041 260046 258049 255049 248048
      243051 238055 238062 241065 247071 255076 262080 270082
      274082 277080 284078 290073 292074 293078 295082 301083
      304082 307079 312073 321061 325057 327051 331041 333036
      335029 338020 340011 344995 340988 338984 339978 367992
      370001 375001 378999 384994 389988 408969 416964 421958
      430954 439955 445955 448955 450957 454959 457960 459962
      463962 468962 471960 474957 475954 477954 477959 474964
      470970 470977 469981 472999 474002 474007 478012 486017
      490018 493020 513022 519020 524015 528992 529986 530983
      533979
 0.01 487195 487190 486186 484185 481181 478179 474179 471182
      468187 466192 465196 464199 467201 472201 475200 479199
      482198 486196 487195
 0.01 463698 456700 450707 447710 445712 442711 441712 439716
      440723 439727 437728 431731 435730 439731 446732 451729
      454725 455715 457710 459706 463698
 0.01 450743 449738 447739 444737 442737 440740 439743 438746
      438748 440748 441750 445749 446747 448746 450743
 0.01 450078 449078 448075 446072 445071 443072 444075 444076
      446077 448078 449078 450078
 0.01 435770 434763 432759 428757 425757 422756 421759 424763
      427767 429771 431776 432780 434778 435771 435770
 0.01 425700 425698 424696 423694 422693 421692 420691 418690
      416690 415690 413691 413692 413694 413696 414697 415698
      416699 417700 418702 418703 420703 422703 423702 425701
      425700
 0.01 413073 414071 414068 414066 414064 412063 412064 410065
      408065 407065 406068 406070 406072 408075 410073 411073
      413073 413073
 0.25 521183 522178 521174 519167 517164 515161 509157 504153
      499149 495143 491137 487131 482128 475126 469125 465131
      461134 454136 450141 448143 444144 438143 435145 434147
      432156 436162 439166 445171 446174 446179 442186 444191
      446194 449197 454193 462184 470173 476169 481170 488174
      493178 501187 509190 513195 516195 518193 521183
 0.25 498221 498212 496207 494204 491202 485203 464210 453211
      447211 441209 432214 427217 422222 421231 416234 414236
      413240 416245 422250 428251 436253 443256 448267 453270
      456269 457265 460259 464254 468250 474248 480248 484245
      485239 483235 478230 474231 473228 476224 490227 496226
      498221
 0.25 452102 452099 450097 445099 441100 437100 433102 432107
      431111 434115 438115 441116 446116 449112 449107 449104
      452102
 0.25 433909 432902 431899 424893 420892 415891 409893 406895
      401901 395908 382920 378927 376938 373947 370952 370956
      372958 376959 382959 387960 396958 402952 416941 421936
      426928 430919 433909
 0.25 366836 365823 365817 362814 353804 349803 344803 340805
      337808 332815 329824 316851 313855 310856 301861 296866
      295876 295882 293887 290894 287901 288910 284918 277925
      268937 264943 261951 257958 255964 260980 260989 256996
      251003 249008 251011 255012 256016 258022 268036 271039
      273042 274047 273052 272056 268059 258058 249057 246058
      246062 251067 255070 259071 264071 267073 270074 272073
      274070 283068 288062 290060 294058 299057 307053 313047
      317040 318034 317031 325017 329010 327008 325009 322010
      318009 316005 317998 318994 320985 321980 323977 326967
      327963 325960 323954 325947 327943 330939 336934 341929
      346923 351916 355909 360894 363883 364874 365851 366842
      366836
 0.50 504174 496169 493168 490164 485156 482153 477151 473149
      470146 466143 461143 450154 442151 438151 437155 440161
      443163 449164 450166 448170 448174 451185 457185 461183
      464179 462173 460170 460168 462167 467168 471167 474165
      483166 489170 499173 504174
 0.50 492219 493215 493212 490208 486207 481207 473209 465213
      457214 447215 438215 430219 426220 425225 427229 428235
      420238 419242 422245 427247 431246 435245 439246 448249
      453251 456249 464244 467241 467235 466230 468227 471225
      474222 479222 486223 492219
 0.50 480241 481239 480237 480236 479235 477235 476235 476236
      475237 475240 476242 478243 480242 480241
 0.50 488139 487135 485133 483132 479131 476130 473129 471133
      470135 470138 473140 477140 480142 483142 487141 488139
 0.50 444111 444108 444107 442106 440107 440108 440110 442111
      443111 444111
 0.50 360827 361822 358819 352817 350815 346814 341817 335822
      331829 325842 322849 319855 315860 309862 303864 301867
      300871 304878 303881 300884 296890 293897 297898 298902
      296908 294916 290922 285927 279931 270941 268945 265952
      260965 261969 264970 265980 261996 260001 262002 263007
      269006 271008 269010 264015 263021 272031 277042 281049
      286051 290051 299051 304049 309045 314039 313032 311028
      308028 302028 299027 300023 304019 307013 311004 312996
      313987 309986 305986 304983 306976 312960 314954 317947
      321941 324937 333927 342916 350903 354891 357882 357872
      359854 360827
 0.50 281063 279062 278063 279064 281064 281063
 0.50 256063 256061 255061 253060 251060 250060 249060 250061
      251063 253063 255063 256063
 1.00 483219 484214 481210 477210 474212 470214 466215 463218
      459220 458223 462222 467222 471221 474219 478219 483219
      483219
 1.00 482138 480137 479137 478137 479137 480138 482138
 1.00 471158 471155 470153 469150 469149 468147 466146 465147
      464149 463151 462153 463156 463157 465158 466159 468159
      470159 471158
 1.00 455221 450219 445218 443218 440217 436219 432222 434225
      437227 440226 446226 449225 452223 455221
 1.00 352846 353839 353832 350828 347826 342827 339830 333837
      325853 319861 314868 310876 307885 307892 308896 308901
      305905 301914 296920 285935 279941 274947 270955 268959
      268965 270969 271975 270981 269984 267988 267995 268998
      270997 273995 286984 290983 294979 298970 299963 298957
      300953 303950 315937 324922 337910 342901 344893 349882
      351873 352846
 1.00 301004 298002 295004 293005 289006 287006 285008 284010
      282014 283016 286018 289018 291017 292016 294014 296012
      298009 300006 301004
 1.00 292043 292041 291041 289040 288039 286040 285041 286042
      287042 288043 289044 291044 292043
 1.50 480216 479214 477213 475214 477216 478216 480216
 1.50 348864 348856 347850 347839 346836 343841 342845 339839
      336839 332844 328851 323860 317868 314874 313880 316887
      314899 313905 310910 297923 290932 285940 273955 271959
      270964 272967 276970 278971 278974 275978 275981 277981
      285977 288973 288969 289963 288958 290953 294950 301946
      308939 315930 317926 319920 321910 326902 328896 328887
      331863 333858 336852 338849 342847 339870 336882 339886
      343883 346873 348864
 2.00 345869 345866 345864 345862 345860 344859 343860 343862
      343864 342865 342867 342869 342871 341873 340875 340878
      341880 343877 343875 344873 344871 344869 345869
 2.00 329872 329869 326869 324872 322877 321881 319885 320890
      321896 324896 325889 325884 326879 328874 329872
 2.00 316924 316919 316915 314913 311913 301922 293931 289935
      287941 283947 279952 275956 273959 273964 274967 277966
      282962 285956 288951 293947 299944 308935 312931 315925
      316924
 3.00 311928 312925 310922 307922 304924 301927 298931 296933
      292937 291941 296942 299940 302937 305935 308931 311928
 4.00 307928 308926 306926 305926 305927 303928 303929 301931
      300933 301935 303933 304933 305931 305930 306929 307928

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.