Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT WED MAR 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 23/0000 UTC THRU MAR 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN---CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES

THE FORMER FULL LATITUDE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO SEPARATE INTO MORE DISTINCT SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COMPONENTS
DAY 1.  THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
COMPONENT AS IT PUSHES INLAND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AND THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  A STREAM OF ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES 2 TO 2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE INLAND MOVING HEIGHT FALLS---SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION AND LEE
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN THE INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS TROF.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROF WILL
PUSH FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN
SHEAR EASTWARD THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  GENERALLY LIGHT
TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIP TOTAL POSSIBLE.  TOWARD THE END OF THE
DAY 1 PERIOD THE NEXT AMPLIFYING NORTHEAST PACIFIC UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST.  AT THE MOMENT---TIMING OF THIS TROF
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP OFFSHORE---JUST BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
PAC NW INTO NW CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  GREATER
PRECIP IMPACTS FROM THIS TROF EXPECTED DURING DAY 2 ACROSS THE PAC
NW INTO NORTHERN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES

A LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
EJECTING FROM THE PAC NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WILL PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DAY 1.  THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES--SUPPORTING LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS FROM NORTHERN MN INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE U.P.

FLORIDA

A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TO
SOUTH FLORIDA DAY 1.  POST FRONTAL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
TO MAXIMIZE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA DAY 1.  THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY LAYER COASTAL
MAXIMA.  THE HI RES ARW WAS THE MOST EMPHATIC MODEL WITH THE HEAVY
PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD TO MIAMI AND INLAND
APPROX 20-30 NM.  . WHILE NOT AS HEAVY---THE GFS...NAM AND SREF
MEAN ALL SHOW THIS PRECIP POTENTIAL ALSO DAY 1.  THE ARW IS AN
OUTLIER ON THE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS.  THE GFS WAS FOLLOWED
MORE CLOSELY FOR QPF DETAILS WITH .25-.50"+ AMOUNTS IN THIS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE MAX.

ORAVEC


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 492612 491621 487629 485633 488642 490655 489665 487666
      484664 478661 469651 460654 454659 440667 433669 427666
      423660 423655 430650 438646 443642 446639 448635 451627
 0.01 381299 395297 408294 418291 432290 445291 454294 458295
      460298 466301 470304 478309 484313 490315 496312 501307
      505300 511288 514278 517270 520262 522253 520244 517236
      512224 504212 500206 494202 492202 489200 485199 483200
      477203 472204 462210 438218 431219 427220 423224 428228
      440226 454224 461226 466226 472225 479224 482224 485225
      489231 488234 484235 482234 480231 476230 470231 463229
      456230 442231 430234 424234 417233 401230 396232 390236
      380245 376248 372253 368260 366269 364282 366290
 0.01 563074 564055 565039 565022 565013 564004 564938 561924
      555915 543905 537901 534899 532896 533893 532885 531880
      530875 528870 526865 523860 517855 510851 505849 500849
      489851 484853 477854 472855 468857 464858 460861 456868
      452877 451881 450887 449893 446896 449905 451911 450915
      447915 440912 433907 419897 411893 399894 395895 392892
      385886 383888 384891 385895 387906 388910 387915 385920
      385925 384929 386934 390941 391945 392948 390949 386947
      382949 369961 366963 362967 357974 351980 349994 349998
      351000 352002 350004 343009 329018 323025 324029 327032
      331034 336032 344030 351028 361028 372028 375028 377024
      373023 372018 378013 383006 387002 392000 419975 468964
      467970 467979 467986 465990 464000 461006 458016 452021
      445026 435030 431031 426034 420041 418044 416049 414054
      411056 409058 406058 400057 393061 388061 380064 372060
      372057 372053 371052 367052 363054 358057 357062 359072
      356077 352079 343083 335085 326089 320093 314099 311107
      310114 311118 329120 330124 327129 325134 326137 330140
      335142 338144 343145 356147 362148 364149 363152 362158
      363162 366167 370169 371173 369176 366179 358181 349180
      347180 346177 345172 344168 340164 333162 314156 309158
      311161 315164 318168 327174 333179 338186 343196 346201
      350206 352208 356208 358204 362200 370199 372198 375200
      378203 383209 388211 391212 393210 394207 391201 387194
      386189 388185 390182 392179 401177 405175 409172 413164
      416159 417154 422140 423135 426131 434124 450117 453117
      456113 459103 466082 469071 471056 473046 474040 476031
      477018 478014 478007
 0.01 478007 483974 483970 484967 485957 487943 489940 492940
      497942 502944 507945 510949 513957 517970 521983 523987
      526994 529010 530016 530026 530036 531044 531053 532055
      532061 534077 536091 540103 546114 549118 552116 557103
      560087 562078 563074
 0.01 534212 535204 535199 534193 533187 531178 527171 515158
      505147 492135 487130 484128 480127 475126 473128 471132
      471137 483141 486145 483148 481149 478148 474147 468141
      464140 461141 453142 448143 446146 447150 448154 446158
      444161 448178 445181 446183 448187 451188 456189 458187
      464181 468176 474171 478170 482173 489179 500191 506196
      511203 521216 525218 530217 534212
 0.01 310811 309807 306803 304800 303793 292781 289785 285787
      281786 276786 272785 267786 265788 260790 250793 246794
      242797 238804 236808 236812 244815 250820 257824 265827
      269828 275827 283823 301821 307816 310811
 0.25 529205 528196 526190 522185 518181 513178 509180 511186
      514192 517198 520202 525206 527207 529205
 0.25 514264 516255 515248 512236 503218 500213 496210 487211
      482211 481216 490221 493233 498244 499248 496247 490239
      486238 482240 480235 477233 470235 461238 454245 446248
      437250 428250 417249 406249 399251 391256 384263 381270
      380273 380280 382284 388285 392284 401280 411279 427276
      437275 447274 456274 466276 477281 483283 487286 492289
      496290 504285 507280 509270 514264
 0.25 492899 491893 489889 482884 478877 474875 472878 471892
      471900 471908 471915 473920 476924 482917 487911 491901
      492899
 0.25 467154 468152 468150 467149 467147 466147 464146 463146
      462146 461147 460148 459150 460153 460154 462154 463155
      465155 467155 467154
 0.25 460074 462059 463051 462044 460040 457038 453040 450043
      444050 439058 435064 427070 420074 414080 400087 393091
      386097 379100 372103 364107 360110 357112 350110 345102
      341100 338102 336107 338112 341119 341125 342129 346132
      349131 353130 357132 365132 372137 382140 387148 391150
      394149 399148 402145 405133 410126 416123 421122 425120
      431114 438110 444105 450098 457086 460074
 0.25 377076 377073 376071 376069 375066 373065 372064 371063
      370064 369064 369066 371068 371069 372071 372072 373073
      374074 375075 376076 377076
 0.25 359185 357184 355184 353184 352183 351184 350185 349185
      348187 348190 349190 351190 353190 354189 355189 356188
      358187 358186 359185
 0.25 334169 335167 334166 332165 330164 329163 327163 325163
      323164 322165 323166 323167 324168 326169 328170 330170
      332170 333169 334169
 0.25 297811 298808 297806 294803 288800 283798 275796 266796
      259796 258800 259805 264810 271810 276809 280811 286814
      289815 291813 297811
 0.25 264819 264817 263815 262814 261813 260812 259811 258810
      257811 256812 256814 256816 257816 258817 259818 260819
      261819 263820 264819
 0.50 509254 510249 510246 507238 505231 503226 501220 497215
      495215 493220 493229 496236 499241 502246 506251 509254
 0.50 503278 504271 503265 497255 492245 489241 487241 485243
      482247 479244 479238 476235 473239 473244 473249 475250
      479254 485262 492271 500279 503278
 0.50 455081 456070 456061 455057 453054 450055 447057 439066
      431075 423084 418087 412089 401094 392099 387103 384106
      384108 384113 379117 375121 372124 372129 374132 380128
      383131 387133 389132 398126 402127 405125 409122 414119
      416117 418114 416111 415108 419102 422098 427100 433104
      436102 437100 439096 439092 439084 441079 447081 452082
      455081
 0.50 359123 358119 356117 353115 351114 348112 346110 344109
      342109 342111 344115 345118 346121 347123 350125 353125
      356124 359123
 0.50 290810 289808 287805 285804 283802 279801 277800 274799
      273799 270801 270804 272806 274806 278806 280807 283808
      286810 288810 290810
 1.00 501238 501237 500235 500232 500231 500230 499227 499226
      498224 498223 496222 495223 495225 495228 495229 496231
      496233 497234 498235 499237 500237 501238 501238
 1.00 497263 497260 496259 495257 495256 494254 494253 493251
      492250 491248 491247 489247 489249 489250 489252 490254
      490255 491257 492258 493259 494261 494262 495263 497263
 1.00 451075 450073 450072 448070 447069 445069 444070 444072
      445073 446075 448076 450077 451075

$$




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