Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 230642
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 23/1200 UTC THRU AUG 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

A WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS..AS DEVELOPING COOL SEASON DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH
WARM SEASON MOISTURE.  THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN H5 TROF INTO AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG H5 TROF/CLOSED LOW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
LATER THIS PERIOD.  TO THE EAST OF THIS H5 TROF..AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG AND MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SETTING UP AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES UNTIL
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING..WHEN THE FLOW SHOULD BACK TO A
MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE LIFTING OUT LOW LEVEL
CENTER.  THE STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS/FORCING..THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AND THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINS
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BACK INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MT..WITH ALL OF THE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS IDEA.  EXPECT AT LEAST AREAL AVERAGE 3-4 INCH RAINS IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MT..WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE..AND HAVE PUT THIS AREA UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF
FLOODING.  A BIT FARTHER EAST..H5 S/WV ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPSTREAM H5 TROF WILL COMBINE WITH A MORE
EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS/CONVECTION THRU THIS REGION INTO SATURDAY
EVENING..WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAJOR H5 TROF SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL WRAP-AROUND HEAVY RAINS THRU
PARTS OF ND SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINS OUT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
NOT LIKELY TO BE AS HEAVY AS BACK IN MT..BUT SOME AREAL AVERAGE
2-3 INCH TOTALS ARE EXPECTED..WITH THIS AREA BEING PUT IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF FLOODING.  TO EMPHASIS AGAIN..THIS IS GOING TO BE A LARGE
RAINFALL EVENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BACK INTO MT.


...OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...

THE DEEPENING WESTERN ATLANTIC H5 TROF ALONG WITH THE BUILDING H5
RIDGE FROM JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS BACK INTO THE MID/LOWER
MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO A MORE NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME OVER THE EASTERN STATES..WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING
THE PERIOD.  AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY..SUPPORTING A CONTINUED SHOWERY
PATTERN WITH IT.  NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH QPF DETAILS IN THIS
PATTERN..WITH MODEL QPFS NOT IN ESPECIALLY GOOD AGREEMENT..SO KEPT
AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 542963 543948 543937 541924 538916 536909 532901 527893
      521888 517884 509884 502885 496888 488897 482901 476907
      467917 462922 457929 452935 449938 447939 445936 442929
      440925 440921 437912 434906 427892 418881 414876 410870
      403855 397839 388827 385824 383819 383813 385810 390805
      394800 396795 398793 406788 415781 420778 425772 427768
      428764 429760 429755 427751 425748 422745 418745 411745
      405747 402749 394751 386755 373760 366759 359758 356757
      357754 356743 354740 351737 343737 338741 333745 323756
      314770 311775 307784 307793 310800 313806 319810 327820
      332824 336829 341835 344840 352856 354880 358885 363890
      369894 375897 380900 387902 393904 397906 398910 401917
      403926 404930 405936 408942 415957 418964 419970 419975
      419982 418988 416993 413996 411003 407010 403031 403039
      400045 397050 394052 390051 388053 386058 382063 377068
      375072 373076 383110 382120 382131 384134 388135 392135
      396133 406129 421129 424131 427130 433130 438146 439150
      439156 442161 445165 449166 457164 463161 468158 474154
      478149 484145 490142 498133 500130 501123 502112 502106
      505102 509094 516076 522060 528042 532025 536005 541987
      541971 542963
 0.01 301086 302080 301075 300071 297068 289063 286062 281061
      263055 245050 239049 233048 230050 229055 230059 231064
      236070 248082 253088 258094 261097 265097 274096 278097
      282096 291094 297090 301086
 0.01 300821 299817 298815 293811 289809 284807 271811 266808
      260807 256809 254814 251819 252825 262830 268832 273830
      273825 278826 284828 291827 298826 300821
 0.25 527963 527953 527944 525937 522929 517921 513918 507916
      503915 496916 486920 476925 468930 464933 461939 458943
      453947 444951 436957 433961 431967 427982 426991 427999
      430011 432025 434033 436039 438045 439051 439058 437064
      435069 433077 434094 434104 435109 439119 444130 451140
      453144 455146 458147 463145 467142 471138 475135 485131
      488125 490119 494107 503078 506066 508058 508050 509041
      511033 514017 518002 521989 525976 527963
 0.25 421926 421925 420924 420921 419920 418919 417918 415919
      414921 415924 416925 416926 417928 418928 419929 420928
      421927 421926
 0.25 412071 409064 406063 402062 396066 390070 386074 384083
      387089 395089 400084 405079 410075 412071
 0.25 407761 406760 405759 404759 402759 400759 398759 397759
      395761 395763 395765 396766 397766 399767 401767 403766
      404766 406764 406763 407761
 0.25 398862 394856 390851 386845 380840 377838 373839 368842
      366846 367851 369858 375862 382865 389867 392869 396868
      398862
 0.25 390785 389785 387786 389786 390785
 0.25 383791 382790 380791 378791 377793 375794 374794 373795
      372797 373799 374799 376799 376798 377797 379796 380794
      381793 382791 383791
 0.25 366811 366809 364809 362811 362812 361813 360814 359815
      357817 356818 355819 354821 353822 354823 356823 358822
      359821 360821 361820 363818 364816 366813 366811
 0.25 359767 354764 347767 344770 341777 339782 338788 339790
      342792 348794 350795 353794 357790 357781 357774 359767
 0.25 342761 340757 337758 333761 331766 326772 322780 321785
      322791 322797 325801 327800 330796 329787 330785 334778
      338770 342761
 0.25 292083 292079 291076 284072 276070 267069 263069 260070
      256073 257078 259081 264085 273087 282087 287087 290086
      292083
 0.50 520962 520956 519947 517940 515934 512931 509928 505926
      499925 488927 482929 478932 471937 467940 464944 461947
      457950 447955 442957 439961 435969 431983 431989 432996
      435009 437021 444045 443053 443060 441074 443079 447082
      449087 449096 448101 445106 445113 447119 452129 456133
      461134 477127 481124 484119 488106 492094 496082 500069
      501061 501055 500039 500032 499028 500024 506014 511003
      515993 518979 520962
 0.50 404074 403070 399071 397072 395073 392075 391077 391082
      392082 394082 397085 399081 401079 402076 404074
 0.50 390861 390858 389856 387854 387853 385852 383850 382850
      381849 379850 378852 379855 380857 381859 382859 383860
      385861 387862 389862 390861
 0.50 351773 349772 348774 348775 348776 347778 348780 349782
      350780 350778 350775 351773 351773
 0.50 287083 287079 285077 283076 280075 276074 272074 270075
      268076 270079 272080 274081 277082 281083 284083 287083
 1.00 510991 512983 511974 510968 508961 505958 502961 497970
      495975 491979 488980 484977 479969 476966 471964 463961
      458959 454961 452962 453966 450969 443974 439976 436980
      436987 437994 440003 442009 443014 444020 447025 450029
      454032 457033 461037 461040 460043 456046 449051 447056
      448062 448070 450075 455081 457086 457095 455103 456110
      457115 459119 463122 467122 472121 475118 478114 481108
      485099 489088 492077 494068 494060 491047 487038 486032
      488025 494017 500010 505003 509996 510991
 1.50 507988 505983 502984 499987 495989 491991 486991 481990
      477992 467994 462989 458984 454981 445978 440980 439983
      439987 440993 442997 445000 450003 454005 453010 450015
      452021 455024 459027 469030 472031 475029 488017 495010
      500003 505994 507988
 1.50 488078 489067 488060 480048 478046 475047 470050 456051
      451054 450058 450062 451072 455076 460081 462089 462098
      463107 465110 469111 473108 482099 487083 488078
 2.00 494000 488000 482003 475005 470009 467012 463013 458015
      457018 458020 461021 465021 469023 476020 481017 487012
      492006 494000
 2.00 485080 486073 484067 479061 476058 471058 461055 456054
      452056 452068 458075 463082 467092 469097 472099 477099
      480097 482092 483087 485080
 2.00 453986 452985 450986 448985 447984 446983 445983 444983
      443985 443988 444990 445992 445993 446993 448994 450993
      452992 453991 453988 453986 453986
 3.00 481080 479074 474069 469066 466063 459060 456059 455064
      458069 462074 465078 469083 473086 477084 481080

$$





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