Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 210641
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
140 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 21/1200 UTC THRU JAN 22/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY

THE FORMING CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY DAY 1 WILL
BE PUSHING STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY.  THERE ARE ONLY
SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS EVOLUTION OF
THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE CENTERS WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AN
INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION
BAND EARLY DAY 1 STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL EXPAND WITH TIME EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY.  HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY IN THIS COMMA
HEAD/DEFORMATION REGION STRETCHING DAY 1 FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO/FAR SOUTHEAST WY----ACROSS NW KS---MUCH OF NE SAVE FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEAST---SOUTHEAST SD INTO FAR NW IA.  SEE THE LATEST
QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY REGION

PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE STRONG EJECTING CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW---ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY EARLY MONDAY.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
PEAKING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 0000 TO 0600 UTC TIME
FRAME FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS---NORTHEASTWARD
TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY REGION.  EXPECT A WELL
DEFINED FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE TO STRETCH FROM
NORTHEAST TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OK---NW AR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO
IN THE 0000-0600 UTC TIME FRAME.  THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL AS THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE LINE WILL
BE SLOWER MOVING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL PERIOD OF
TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION FORM
NORTHEAST TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OK---WESTERN AR.  SHORTLY PRIOR TO
0600 UTC AND AFTERWARD---THIS CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE---LOWERING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL TOWARD THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION.  HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
1.00-1.5" POSSIBLE IN THE 0000-060O UTC TIME PERIOD FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR WHERE ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES MAY DEVELOP.  THE MARGINAL RISK IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS AREA WAS MAINTAINED---NARROWED
SLIGHTLY ON THE EASTERN END TO REFLECT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AFTER 0600 UTC.  OVERALL---WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY WITH THIS
DEVELOPING PRE-FRONTAL/FRONTAL SQUALL LINE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY EARLY MONDAY.  AN ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM THE WASHINGTON-OREGON
CASCADES---WEST TO THE WA/OREGON COAST RANGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.  MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS DAY
1 ARE ACROSS THE OLYMPIC RANGE OF WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST RANGES WHERE THE STRONG
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.  THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE VERY HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS---WITH MAX AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE ACROSS THE
OLYMPIC RANGE AND THE FAR NW CA AND FAR SW OREGON COAST RANGES.
THE MARGINAL RISK AREA ON THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
WAS MAINTAINED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
FOR POTENTIAL RUNOFF/DEBRIS FLOW ISSUES OVER RECENT BURN SCAR
AREAS.


INLAND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES---GENERALLY MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS IN THE .10-.25" RANGE
EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST OREGON---FAR EASTERN WA AND INTO CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN IDAHO.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 537202 536191 534180 531172 526166 514155 500145 489133
      486130 482129 478127 477128 472128 471130 469133 471137
      474140 478144 476147 472146 466140 460139 454142 452146
      448148 437141 433142 429139 425136 422136 412146 409150
      406151 402157 393172 391176 390181 392184 397185 402180
      409179 414179 417182 422189 427194 431197 433202 420197
      415198 412199 412202 415206 414209 410210 406208 403206
      399203 394201 391198 386197 382197 382200 383204 383209
      378215 372218 370220 370222 369226 370235 369247 373255
      378262 381269 384276 389282 392284 395285 402280 407276
      411274 414273 431273 446273 453272 461273 476275 486278
      491281 494284 501289 505290 507288 512281 515278 516273
      520262 521255 520248 521242 523237 527231 533216 537202
 0.01 490884 490875 488869 485865 481864 474871 470870 464871
      464883 466887 466891 465898 465906 465910 467912 469918
      472917 473909 475902 477897 482897 488887 490884
 0.01 457729 456722 456715 454703 450695 446690 443699 442703
      442709 442715 441720 440724 441730 443740 442744 441747
      438746 434746 430745 424738 422735 418731 415729 411730
      408731 408735 409747 404754 401762 401772 399781 394789
      391792 391796 393819 389829 386838 383858 384868 385871
      382874 368880 352887 338893 331896 323899 308906 301910
      296915 291920 284926 280932 274940 266952 260957 254962
      253965 255967 262970 265969 269971 271974 274975 277976
      281980 285987 289993 291996 295995 301989 309984 321977
      335970 343967 350964 363956 370952 370947 375945 380947
      382949 387956 389959 389965 389974 384976 380974 376975
      373979 371983 371988 371994 373997 374999 374003 373014
      364027 363034 364038 364043 362046 356051 351056 356060
      360060 357064 357070 357077 354079 349078 346080 341086
      336079 331079 329083 330091 331095 334099 338100 341098
      342091 354095 362092 366095 369095 372096 374100 377101
      381099 387096 394094 399088 401085 405086 404100 402106
      399108 394109 390111 384115 379121 375123 374127 373129
      377131 380130 383128 390123 395119 402116 407117 410115
      417111 422105 422098 421094 421089 427090 429094 433095
      435092 434088 434082 436076 438074 441077 445012 448986
      450962 452942 453935 454930 454915 454908 455903 453894
      448875 441827 441814 440808 444805 448802 451804 455804
      457800 459790 458775 457763 458758 457751 456738 457729
 0.01 332058 332055 330055 329055 328055 328057 328058 330058
      332058 332058
 0.01 265798 263796 260796 259797 255798 253800 251802 250804
      251806 254808 255808 258807 261805 263803 264800 265798
 0.25 532205 532196 530188 527182 523176 512168 506166 499167
      492165 485162 482164 482169 485176 490180 494185 500184
      505188 514199 518204 523208 526210 528209 532205
 0.25 515264 517256 517250 515237 512226 506216 500208 493201
      489196 485193 481195 479199 476203 472205 469207 463207
      447215 438215 426213 421222 421226 416226 417222 415217
      405213 398208 393207 391216 374222 373225 374231 378240
      381250 384255 387258 392266 396270 401270 418263 426259
      434256 454256 464256 474259 481265 489272 497280 504284
      508281 511274 515264
 0.25 493238 492232 490229 486225 482224 477223 474224 471226
      474227 478225 480228 481232 483234 486234 491237 493238
 0.25 473158 472156 472154 472153 471152 469151 467151 466152
      465154 467157 468158 470159 471160 473158
 0.25 463181 463178 461176 456175 453166 446161 442159 439161
      438163 441166 444171 446175 445179 441182 440187 440193
      443203 446204 448197 450193 453191 460186 463181
 0.25 441993 443978 443971 442965 440960 439954 439939 441927
      441910 441901 438897 434892 431888 430883 428872 428859
      427852 426847 421838 419834 416833 414835 411844 410856
      409862 408866 405875 402879 398881 395884 391886 372892
      355897 345901 339904 322913 309921 303928 298937 299943
      301946 310947 307956 308963 307969 308972 311972 316971
      326967 339959 346954 352948 365938 378929 387924 396921
      402920 403915 411912 413913 416917 414920 410919 408923
      408929 410941 410951 409964 405975 400981 397983 395988
      391998 387004 385008 385014 385022 382026 377026 373030
      372035 374039 379037 381033 383031 386032 387036 388043
      388049 392052 394057 394061 393064 392067 396066 402058
      409060 412064 415064 417060 418057 420056 427061 429057
      429051 431035 433024 437014 439003 441993
 0.25 406854 406852 405850 404848 402849 402850 401852 400853
      400855 399857 399860 399862 400862 401863 403864 404864
      405865 405864 405862 406859 406857 406855 406854
 0.25 401076 402074 401072 400074 400076 401077 401076
 0.25 367054 365053 363053 361053 360054 359055 359056 361056
      362056 363055 365055 366055 367054
 0.50 527201 528196 527193 526190 524187 522184 521183 518180
      514181 513184 514187 516190 518193 519196 521198 522200
      525201 527201
 0.50 513263 515256 514248 513237 510227 504218 498211 494208
      491204 489200 487200 483202 479205 472209 465212 449217
      439217 436218 430218 427219 424222 427227 429231 429234
      427235 425234 415229 413219 409217 404217 403224 400225
      389222 383222 380224 379230 380234 383244 389250 394259
      399262 404261 412260 420258 436253 444250 452250 462250
      466250 471252 479258 487264 500278 503280 506279 509273
      510269 513263
 0.50 500251 497242 493233 491227 489223 479221 476220 471221
      469223 466227 468230 471230 475229 477229 480231 484238
      487237 491240 496248 498251 500251
 0.50 452173 451171 450170 450171 450173 451175 452173
 0.50 434995 434990 431987 430980 431975 432969 430965 426961
      423961 410973 406979 402989 393004 390013 389020 390025
      392036 394047 405035 409035 413038 418028 427011 431004
      433999 434995
 0.50 433909 434902 431898 427889 423880 421876 418873 414875
      411878 406887 400891 396892 390893 371896 362900 353903
      338910 323918 316923 310928 307933 305938 307943 309943
      317940 320939 323941 318946 316950 316954 316960 317963
      319964 325963 328961 335958 343953 348947 355942 370933
      376928 380925 382922 397913 411904 416905 418910 422917
      426919 430917 433909
 1.00 511255 511241 510236 508232 503223 499216 492214 487212
      484212 481213 481216 485218 490219 493222 495233 500243
      504250 507255 509256 511255
 1.00 503273 503268 501264 498257 494250 490242 488240 485241
      482242 480239 478232 475232 472234 470237 465236 458235
      451236 444238 442239 442242 450244 463243 467243 471244
      477248 484253 489259 499271 503273
 1.00 431248 430242 426238 416234 411231 409226 407232 404232
      401231 397228 390227 385226 384228 384232 390240 397248
      400251 406253 411254 417254 426252 429250 431248
 1.00 408007 408004 405005 403007 401009 399011 398014 397016
      397018 400019 402017 404014 406012 407010 408007
 1.00 373927 369926 366927 359930 352932 345936 339939 336941
      335945 335950 336952 343948 348944 354941 360936 366932
      371928 373927
 1.50 506242 506238 504236 503233 502230 501226 499223 498220
      496221 495226 495228 496233 498235 499238 501241 503242
      506242
 1.50 492253 492252 491250 490247 489246 488247 489249 489250
      490251 491253 492254 492253
 1.50 479241 479238 479237 478236 478234 476234 475234 474235
      473237 473239 475241 476242 478242 479241
 1.50 425242 424241 422240 421240 420240 419242 420244 422244
      424244 424243 425242
 1.50 410244 410240 408239 405237 402235 399234 397232 393231
      392234 394237 396239 397241 398244 402246 405246 407246
      410244
 1.50 357936 357935 355935 354936 355937 357936 357936
 1.50 354938 354937 352936 350938 352940 354939 354938
 1.50 351941 350938 348938 348939 346940 345941 343942 341943
      339945 339946 341947 343946 345945 346944 348943 348942
      350941 351941
 2.00 477238 477237 475237 477239 477238
 2.00 405241 405240 403238 401237 399239 400241 401243 402242
      404241 405241

$$





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