Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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201
FXUS04 KWBC 301905
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 31/0000 UTC THRU JUN 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...EAST COAST...

SLOW MOVING POST-TROPICAL BONNIE REMAINS THE CENTERPIECE OF THE
EAST COAST FORECAST. BONNIE WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAD BECOME DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING
RATHER THAN WARM CORE TROPICAL PROCESSES...FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS REGIME NEAR THE LOW CENTER...FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL SCALE...NEARLY STATIONARY CELLS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BONNIE AND THE OFFSHORE STRONG RIDGE WERE ALSO ANCHORING
A CHANNEL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND THEN TURNING TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS ZONE WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRODUCTIVE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC...WITH PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE U.S. BORDERS BEING MORE
CONFINED NEAR THE REMNANT LOW CENTER ON TUESDAY. FLARE-UPS OF
CONVECTION ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OUT OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS FROM PA
TO NC...WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. IN FLORIDA...AMPLE MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA...WITH SOME PREFERENCE FOR ACTIVITY
TO FOCUS OR REDEVELOP WESTWARD OVER TIME...AND WE DID INCREASE
AMOUNTS BASED ON HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. OVER MOST OF THE EAST...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND WPC TRENDED TOWARD THE
00Z SSEO MEAN.


...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WRAPS AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH INTO THE DIFLUENT
AREA NORTH OF THE CLOSED LOW...RESULTING IN A LENGTHY DURATION
MODERATE RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN ND AND FAR NORTHEAST MT. FARTHER
SOUTH...STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD DELIVER WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING. A SECOND FOCUS / SEPARATE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES A PRE-EXISTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BECOMING A WARM FRONT...FROM THE VICINITY OF
SIOUX FALLS SD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH WARM ADVECTION
CARRYING AT LEAST MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS INTO WISCONSIN. THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST...AND 00Z SSEO MEAN...HAD THIS SYSTEM
HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. ONE TREND HAS BEEN TO SHARPEN UP A DRY SLOT
WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST WYOMING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. IN THE AREAS EXPERIENCING EMBEDDED HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER...MAINLY CENTRAL ND EASTWARD INTO THE CAPE
AXIS...PW VALUES AND DECENTLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TOTALS OVER 2.5 INCHES...WHILE
THE MORE STABLE REGION OVER NORTHWEST ND MAY REACH SUCH TOTALS
WITHIN THE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED RAINS.


...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST IN THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN
STRONGLY BY STORM SCALE AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES...WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BEING PERHAPS MORE
IMPORTANT THAN SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THUS...PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF QPF ON 6-HOURLY TIME SCALES IS NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT...BUT THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
24-HOUR TIME SCALE. ONE MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR OVER NEBRASKA...WITH ASCENT INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS FORECAST TO
DROP THROUGH KANSAS OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SENDING AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK BY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TONIGHT...WITH STRONGER DEEP
LAYER ASCENT THEN COMING OUT OVER THE SAME REGION ON
TUESDAY...WHEN THE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT
INTO A POSITION FROM ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS THAT HAD BEEN
ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THIS
ZONE IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE CORRESPONDING MODEL
QPF SIGNAL. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP FROM EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR DOWN TO SOUTHEAST
TX...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE THEIR LOCATION AND
COVERAGE. WPC QPF RELIED SOMEWHAT ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS WITH THE
LEAD WAVE OVER ARKANSAS/MISSOURI...AND USED MORE OF A CONSENSUS
APPROACH FROM NEBRASKA TO TEXAS/NEW MEXICO...ALSO INCORPORATING
CONTINUITY.

BURKE/SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 526089 526081 525077 524062 523049 519037 517027 520017
      527992 528986 528982 528965 526931 525923 524918 519910
      509895 505888 499880 496875 491873 483871 469863 465861
      462862 459861 454864 439870 423881 415885 406889 396891
      385892 378888 370884 365882 361878 358876 353877 341877
      338880 336883 333893 333898 337900 339900 339903 335905
      328910 323909 324904 324897 323892 318871 315860 311850
      309846 308840 308833 309830 311829 312812 322809 330812
      349815 352816 350820 345829 342838 343849 347849 350846
      356839 360830 366822 371817 379811 383807 386804 390801
      392797 393791 393785 390782 385783 381784 378787 374790
      372792 369791 369786 371782 376776 380768 383764 387761
      392758 395760 396767 398769 400768 406762 414753 423739
      424733 423727 421720 422714 430697 433687 434675 433667
      432662 425657 423655 420656 414657 409659 405662 397667
      390674 379686 369701 366705 361709 358711 352713 336720
      326724 317729 311735 310740 312745 319745 325744 330744
      334746 330751 322756 312771 307777 304780 303785 304799
      299807 296809 292809 284807 265800 262799 255800 251803
      249807 249811 251814 257819 265823 275825 280826 284828
      287829 291833 293834 296834 298838 300843 301846 300848
      298853 302862 305870 306883 305893 300902 299907 300911
      304920 308926 317931 321933 322938 322951 325955 328957
      335957 338960 334968 328974 324977 322978 319977 316975
      311974 305973 300971 292971 284973 276977 267978 259982
      253988 249990 243991 237996 236000 237005 238010 241014
      245018 248019 254020 257023 261029
 0.01 261029 270031 275036 291042 297043 300046 303049 305047
      309046 310042 312039 315037 320038 322042 323047 323053
      325060 329068 328080 328085 330090 333096 336099 340100
      345098 346091 345087 345081 347075 353072 369073 375074
      378073 384070 393080 392072 394069 396071 397076 399078
      399076 401071 400067 406062 413059 415056 416052 415047
      411045 396044 387044 381044 377042 370037 372034 377034
      395032 402030 409027 412037 417044 422051 427054 428056
      432054 434050 434044 435033 432023 430018 435017 439016
      443015 450014 454014 454017 451028 445033 441036 440039
      440040 442046 447064 449069 449071 446071 442065 441062
      440065 440071 443073 448078 451081 454086 463087 466090
      467097 466109 467112 471113 480115 485116 487119 493125
      497126 500124 503122 505118 509112 514103 517103 520099
      526089
 0.01 494138 494135 491132 489131 488128 485126 483125 481127
      481128 483131 486133 487134 489137 492138 494138
 0.01 482682 480671 479666 478663 476661 474659 471657 469658
      465664 462671 460678 459687 458691 456694 452698 448704
      445710 444713 445716 448717 452717 454720 456721 459721
      460719 464718 466715 470711 474704 477699 480692 482683
      482682
 0.01 411103 411101 409100 408100 407103 407105 409105 411103
      411103
 0.01 383197 381195 377191 373188 369186 366183 363181 362184
      365189 369191 372194 377196 380198 383197
 0.01 379126 379125 377125 375125 373127 374130 375130 376130
      377130 377128 379126 379126
 0.01 358136 359131 358129 357125 356122 354121 350121 348123
      348125 349128 351130 352133 352137 354138 356138 358136
 0.01 344173 344171 343170 341168 341167 339167 339168 338170
      339171 341171 342173 342174 344174 344173
 0.01 277086 274077 272074 273069 274065 273060 272056 268053
      267052 261053 259055 257061 251065 250071 252074 259079
      266084 269087 273088 277086
 0.25 517067 517059 516048 513031 513019 514007 516988 518968
      520958 520949 520939 518932 516925 512918 510917 507917
      501920 497925 493926 489925 483924 479920 476914 476907
      477902 477893 475885 473878 469875 464876 459880 442882
      439886 436893 433900 430906 422914 415926 411932 407937
      401934 395937 390940 386938 385935 383928 381920 383913
      383908 381906 373905 367903 353914 349913 345914 341917
      335922 332928 332935 333941 336947 339949 343948 346944
      349938 361931 364925 371925 374928 378934 379938 377940
      372943 366946 363952 355960 349971 346978 342981 336985
      330988 326990 320991 316990 314988 310983 305978 299975
      291976 286978 260984 257990 255997 254000 256003 258008
      260015 264017 276025 282023 288021 293021 296023 296028
      297031 300033 306032 311028 314022 316017 324016 331016
      333018 333022 330029 331033 333034 348034 353030 357024
      361012 364005 371004 376009 379014 391020 397022 403019
      412010 420001 427992 432988 437984 443982 447983 450985
      453990 455996 462007 469009 471018 471025 469033 468042
      468047 470050 485073 490077 494075 500074 505076 510077
      514075 517067
 0.25 426683 426676 424671 421671 419672 416675 410682 407685
      401686 394687 386693 380699 374705 363718 352732 346739
      343747 338754 332760 324764 317770 313777 312787 314792
      317796 322799 336805 342805 347804 354799 360791 364785
      367775 368771 368764 367757 370753 376748 391739 403726
      409719 414711 422695 426683
 0.25 410945 410942 409940 407941 406942 405943 404945 405946
      407946 409946 410945
 0.25 385799 384797 383798 381798 379799 377800 376801 374802
      372804 371806 371808 373808 374807 376806 378806 380806
      381805 382805 383803 384802 385800 385799
 0.25 366816 364814 363815 361816 359817 358819 358820 357821
      356823 358825 360824 360823 361822 362821 363819 364818
      364817 366816
 0.25 355830 356828 355826 354824 352825 351826 350829 350831
      351831 353832 355831 355830
 0.25 283819 283815 281813 276809 272806 268804 261803 254806
      253808 254812 259814 263817 268820 274821 281819 283819
 0.50 507052 512049 510031 508006 507989 505977 507964 508957
      506951 503946 500941 497941 496942 494946 495951 497957
      498965 492965 488962 485958 483960 480961 477960 473957
      470953 468946 468937 469929 468919 468909 469903 470896
      470891 469888 465885 461886 455888 448888 445888 443890
      441897 440903 437908 429915 426921 424926 424934 426940
      426944 424951 419963 417969 417972 420973 422978 428979
      437975 442973 445972 448974 451977 454982 456989 458994
      461999 466002 470004 475009 475015 474023 474032 475039
      481048 487058 491061 494062 497062 501059 505055 507052
 0.50 422682 422678 421676 417679 410686 403692 398695 392696
      388695 384697 378705 367719 360727 354735 351738 349742
      351746 354750 375742 392733 397731 400727 406719 411711
      415703 419694 422683 422682
 0.50 421994 422988 421982 418981 414982 408985 404986 401984
      401978 400973 394970 395960 393959 389958 386958 382960
      377965 372964 369962 363963 358969 355978 348991 346999
      340002 337005 334003 328001 323000 318000 321005 324008
      325012 331012 337006 342011 348013 351011 353008 357002
      359000 360996 362992 366990 371991 375992 376995 377000
      379004 385006 386011 388014 395016 401014 411005 418999
      421994
 0.50 362771 360765 356761 352757 348758 343761 338765 333768
      329773 323783 325786 329783 334783 337789 335793 334798
      336800 340800 347798 351795 355790 358786 361781 362771
 0.50 348925 349921 348918 345919 343920 341922 339924 337926
      336930 335932 336934 337936 339935 341934 343932 345930
      346927 348925
 0.50 312998 311990 309987 306985 301981 296980 292981 292985
      289987 284988 271984 264986 262989 262993 266999 266009
      271014 274013 275015 276019 279021 286018 293008 295012
      300012 304011 305008 312998
 0.50 309022 310019 309017 308015 307014 305013 303014 303015
      302017 301018 301019 300021 299023 299025 299027 301028
      303028 303027 305027 306026 307025 308024 309022 309022
 0.50 275818 277813 275811 273809 271808 268806 265805 261806
      258806 256807 256811 258812 260813 263815 265817 268818
      270819 274818 275818
 1.00 507034 506027 506017 506008 503001 501995 498990 495985
      490981 486985 482989 479994 478997 479999 480007 480017
      478024 480032 485043 490047 495045 499041 504039 506038
      507034
 1.00 476997 475991 472987 469984 467981 464977 461976 460981
      461986 463991 465994 468997 473998 476997
 1.00 460918 461907 460902 458899 453896 451896 449899 446906
      442911 437915 434921 435930 434938 430952 427960 427966
      432970 437966 442961 444954 448949 452942 455936 457927
      460918
 1.00 416691 414688 413690 408695 405698 401704 398709 397712
      397717 397724 401722 404717 407712 410707 413701 415694
      416691
 1.00 401000 399995 396993 395986 393983 390981 387986 386990
      384995 387995 392993 394997 394002 397004 401000
 1.00 385724 383722 381716 379716 374719 371722 368725 366728
      365732 367735 369734 374733 376737 378737 381734 384729
      385724 385724
 1.00 279999 280998 280996 281995 280995 278995 274996 275997
      275998 275999 277000 278999 279999
 1.00 271812 269811 268810 267810 265810 264811 266812 267814
      268815 270815 270814 271812 271812
 1.50 503026 503013 502010 500007 497000 493992 489991 487994
      484002 483012 482024 485032 491037 494036 497033 502029
      503026
 1.50 449937 449928 448924 447922 442925 440930 440935 438940
      437945 435949 435954 433961 435961 438954 442950 445946
      448940 449937
 1.50 411697 410696 408697 408698 407700 406700 406702 405703
      404705 404706 404708 405708 406708 406707 408705 408702
      409701 410700 410698 411697
 2.00 501021 501016 498011 497008 493003 490002 488005 486010
      485016 484022 485027 487031 492031 496028 499026 501022
      501021

$$





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