Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 021822
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 03/0000 UTC THRU MAY 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST...

THE REMNANT MID TO UPPER CIRCULATION OVER NRN NY STATE AS OF 18Z
IS HANDLED SIMILARLY HANDLED BY MODELS ...TRACKING GENLY EWD AND
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY EVENING.  WEAKENING COMMA
HEAD/WAA BAND WILL SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL .25 INCH RAINS OVER ERN
MAINE..WHICH IS GENLY SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE..WITH THE 00Z EC SHOWING ITS SLIGHTLY DRY BIAS.

...NRN GULF NEWD INTO THE MID ATLC AND SOUTHEAST U.S....

A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE U.S..EAST OF LARGE WRN U.S. OMEGA BLOCK...WILL KEEP SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BNDRY FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS PD AS THE FRONT
PUSHES TO A POSITION OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY TUE MRNG AND
TRAILING SWWD TOWARD THE FL/AL/MS COASTAL AREAS BY TUES EVENING.
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...MODEST 85H SWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD
MODERATELY HIGH PWS NEWD INTO THE MID ATLC REGION THIS EVENING
WHERE AMPLE AFTN HEATING PRIOR TO START OF THE PD WILL PRIME
REGION FOR DECENT SHWER/TSTM COVERAGE WHILE RT ENTRANCE REGION OF
ANTI CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET HELPS INCREASE UPR FORCING.  WHILE
THERE ARE SOME LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER
QPF THRU THE MID ATLC..THE 12Z HI RES GUIDANCE AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR ARE REMARKABLE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING A STRIPE OF HEAVIER
RAINS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FROM ERN WV
ENEWD INTO NJ.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A RAPID RETREAT NWD
OF THE WARM FRONT ACRS THIS AREA WITH MLCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
HAVING WORKED NWD TOWARD SCNTL PA.  THUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR SUCH
STG AGREEMENT IN THE HI RES MODELS...DID INDICATE AN AREA OF 1 TO
1.5 INCH RAINS ACRS NRN MD INTO SRN NJ MON EVENING WITH SFC WAVE
TAKING THE MORE ORGANIZED RAINS OFF THE NRN MID ATLC COAST BY TUE
MRNG.  FARTHER SOUTH...EXTENDED .50 TO 1+ INCH RAINS SWD INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF NC/SC AND INTO ERN GA WITH VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG SBCAPES WITHIN AXIS
OF 1.50 TO 1.75 PWS.  FOR THIS REGION...TENDED TO TAKE MORE OF AN
ENSEMBLE APCH GIVEN LARGER MODEL SPREAD...THOUGH PUT A LITTLE MORE
EMPHASIS OF HI RES MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN HIGHLY
CONVECTIVE/MESOSCALE NATURE OF PCPN THERE.


...PAC NW TO FOUR CORNERS REGION/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS ANTICIPATED ACRS THIS REGION WITH LARGE UPR
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DOMINATING THE
PATRN IN THE WEST.   WEAK UPR TROF APCHG THE WEST COAST IS FCST TO
SPLIT WITH PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING NEWD TOWARD B.C. WHILE SRN
ENERGY HANGS WELL OFF THE CA COAST.  THUS SUFFICIENT UPPER FORCING
WILL BE LACKING AS WEAKENING FRONTAL BNDRY MOVES INTO THE NRN PAC
COAST REGION.  ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SIGNIFICANT MSTR
AND INFLOW WILL BE LACKING AHEAD OF S/WV ENERGY DIVING SWD THRU
THE SRN HI PLAINS ON TUES...THUS MAINLY LIGHT SHWR ACTIVITY
EXPECTED.  A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR
MOST OF THE WEST.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SULLIVAN

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 476618 481623 485628 491639 498651 502660 503668 501688
      498696 493702 490706 485710 482711 480709 472711 465715
      462721 457725 452728 448729 447728 447722 444719 441718
      441714 442710 441704 440699 438697 435694 433696 429715
      427731 425739 424746 417775 408805 401816 397823 401834
      405847 407850 410852 412854 412859 410868 405871 401874
      397879 394884 392892 389899 385904 383905 383897 388881
      391873 391867 387865 384868 380868 378864 374860 373857
      372852 373845 372842 370842 360851 351860 344869 340875
      338884 333897 322907 309927 301937 296941 294937 291930
      289929 287931 284932 282933 278933 270931 264931 257929
      252927 251917 257906 262895 267883 270878 275873 278870
      278865 279858 279850 280844 280834 281831 286831 289832
      292830 289823 275821 269820 264817 260811 256809 250806
      253800 262792 274783 283776 290773 298771 305768 310764
      319758 325754 330750 340742 347736 352731 359720 366710
      371697 378685 385675 393665 397660 403655 416648 419647
      421649 425652 430655 432657 433661 433665 434672 436675
      436669 436661 434650 434644 434640 435632
 0.01 521269 520259 518253 512241 504229 500223 497222 494223
      493228 493232 496238 498244 498248 495246 486235 481230
      475228 473231 471235 471239 469241 466240 466235 462230
      459229 460226 467225 471221 476218 484220 489220 492215
      493211 491208 483206 479208 466209 454210 447208 445206
      442204 436201 432201 434204 435207 434212 429208 405200
      397198 390198 385195 381194 380197 399213 403215 406214
      412214 416213 419215 421217 421221 417226 410225 400230
      400234 402235 405235 406238 420243 422246 426247 430245
      432243 435244 435248 439249 466253 472253 477251 484254
      487256 488260 495272 499279 504284 509286 516285
 0.01 538837 538829 536825 535818 534816 534811 530803 528798
      524794 521792 518792 508793 500796 493802 470830 466836
      461844 450859 445867 443877 442890 442904 443918 443925
      446927 452933 455935 459935 464927 467916 468910 471911
      472916 475925 477929 480931 483932 487932 491929 492926
      491922 491918 494914 502918 509918 514910 516905 518900
      521892 524882 527869 530859 538837
 0.01 455231 452228 449229 447230 445231 442232 440232 436233
      435235 437237 441238 442236 446236 448235 450234 453233
      455231
 0.01 441740 440738 438738 437738 435739 433739 432739 431740
      430742 430743 430745 432747 434747 436746 438746 439743
      440740 441740
 0.01 447039 447023 446017 444014 439006 436000 436995 438992
      435990 431990 426992 422993 416994 413994 413996 411001
      402004 394008 378003 374006 376009 381017 385018 388023
      393032 398037 403040 408040 415036 418034 421035 424037
      435038 441039 447039 447039
 0.01 390151 386145 383138 382134 382129 386122 392116 383115
      377119 375125 374130 376134 374145 375149 377153 384154
      390151 390151
 0.01 386084 381078 379067 375064 373061 370058 372055 381056
      380051 376049 369045 365042 362043 360045 359045 355043
      352040 350036 352029 353026 363024 370020 376015 366001
      354989 349988 345990 340995 335001 331010 330016 331021
      332026 336028 340030 341034 338042 338047 342050 344054
      345059 347061 351060 353062 352065 349068 346070 343074
      343080 344085 349090 354093 358094 362090 355084 353082
      352079 353074 353070 356069 361070 365072 370072 373074
      374078 376082 380083 386084
 0.01 366185 366184 364183 363182 363181 361183 360183 360185
      360186 362186 364187 364186 366185 366185
 0.01 361125 360120 358118 354114 351112 348110 344107 344111
      345114 348119 348125 349130 351133 354132 358130 361125
      361125
 0.01 268009 268004 267001 263996 256995 249996 238002 235003
      233006 233015 236021 240026 244030 247036 251041 256045
      262046 264043 264039 261034 259028 258020 257017 260015
      264012 268009
 0.01 265968 265966 265964 265962 265961 264962 263963 262964
      261965 260966 259967 258968 257969 257970 257972 259974
      261975 263974 263972 264970 265968 265968
 0.25 462623 470630 473634 474641 476654 478662 478669 477675
      474681 471684 465686 461686 456684 448679 444676 444671
      447658 448653 447646 446637 445629
 0.25 511252 509250 508249 507248 506247 506250 507252 508254
      509254 510252 511252
 0.25 510843 509839 507839 505830 504828 500828 496832 493837
      490842 488849 488854 489858 492863 495863 502860 505855
      508849 510843
 0.25 461881 462878 461877 459877 457878 457879 456881 456882
      455884 455886 455889 454889 454891 454894 454896 455897
      456897 457896 458894 458893 459891 459888 460888 460886
      461883 461882 461881
 0.25 422682 423674 421668 415665 410665 405666 396670 389677
      383685 379692 375700 371709 368716 359731 354738 348745
      343751 335758 323768 315773 307777 299780 291785 279798
      270800 266802 265807 264810 264813 269816 273816 292818
      299822 306827 309831 308835 303842 299849 293856 288863
      284870 280878 272883 269890 267899 266905 267911 269915
      274916 282910 291907 296901 300895 304891 305886 307879
      312872 317864 320855 323847 323842 326836 333831 340827
      340830 339834 336842 334846 333850 334853 342854 346851
      350848 362837 369831 376828 382822 386814 396798 400790
      402785 402780 403773 405769 408761 410751 413742 416732
      417724 417710 419697 422682
 0.25 356011 357009 356007 356005 355002 353000 351999 350000
      349000 347001 346002 346004 347006 349008 349009 351011
      352012 354013 354014 355013 356012 356011
 0.25 335784 334783 333784 332785 331786 330787 329789 329790
      328792 327794 328795 329794 330793 331792 331791 333789
      334787 335786 335784
 0.25 323799 319799 316799 312800 309801 306801 303802 300803
      297805 298807 302807 304808 308808 311808 315807 316805
      319804 321802 323799
 0.50 462651 462646 461641 457636 454641 452647 450654 449661
      448668 449672 451673 457670 459664 461658 462651
 0.50 412683 410677 407675 402673 397674 393677 390681 384690
      366726 357743 344758 349758 350762 349768 340787 335795
      329802 321808 312813 312818 314821 319823 324823 341813
      345811 348808 351806 352813 354821 357826 363823 373819
      377816 380812 390794 396786 398781 399776 401762 401756
      403751 406742 410731 413719 412709 411701 412695 412683
 0.50 326786 323782 321780 318780 312782 307782 301784 296786
      293790 295795 301796 308796 315794 321792 324788 326786
 0.50 313858 314856 314854 314852 314849 313847 312847 310847
      310848 309849 308850 307852 307854 307856 308858 307861
      308861 310862 310863 311863 312862 313860 313858
 0.50 306865 307863 306862 305863 304864 302865 302867 303867
      304866 306865 306865
 0.50 299891 297880 296875 294871 288877 281882 274886 272890
      271894 269904 271908 275910 282905 290902 296895 299891
 0.50 290812 291810 289808 287807 285805 284808 280807 276809
      275810 273812 274814 277814 281815 282815 286815 289814
      290812
 1.00 401690 401686 400683 397682 394684 388693 384701 378712
      374720 369730 368736 370738 371736 377728 383719 389710
      395702 398698 400693 401690
 1.00 402729 402724 399728 396737 395742 396749 391757 390762
      390767 387776 388779 390780 393775 396768 398756 398751
      400746 401736 402729
 1.00 375790 373788 371790 369793 367795 366798 365800 363803
      362807 364810 367810 369807 370804 371801 372799 373795
      374792 375790
 1.00 361767 360762 356762 353769 350777 347784 344791 341797
      338804 341804 343802 347796 350789 353782 357775 360769
      361767
 1.00 291893 292889 290887 287885 283886 281887 278889 276891
      275894 274896 274900 277902 280902 284901 286899 288897
      290895 291893
 1.50 395761 395759 393759 393760 395761 395762 395761
 1.50 286893 286891 285891 284890 282891 282892 282894 282895
      282896 284896 285896 286894 286893

$$




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