Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190647
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 19/1200 UTC THRU OCT 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND THE FAR
NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. TO START THE DAY WILL HAVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAGNITUDES AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 99TH
PERCENTILE...PWAT VALUES AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE...AND LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE UPSLOPE FLOW ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY THESE
PARAMETERS ALL TEND TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO BE A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. THE
QUICK FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TOUGH AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WILL ALSO HELP CAP THE UPPER MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
STILL LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONTINUE BEHIND THE MAIN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER GIVEN THE COLD MID LEVEL AIR UNDERNEATH THE
TROUGH AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. IN GENERAL LOOKING AT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" ACROSS THE WA/OR CASCADES AND
THE COASTAL RANGE OF FAR NORTHWEST CA AND SOUTHWEST OR. LOCALIZED
3-5" AMOUNTS APPEAR PROBABLE BOTH ALONG THIS COASTAL RANGE AND THE
CASCADES FROM NORTHERN OR INTO FAR SOUTHERN WA. RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE LOCATIONS IN
NORTHWEST CA AND SOUTHWEST OR...WHERE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5" IN AN
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 0Z.

OVERALL THE NEW WPC FORECAST STAYS PRETTY CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO EXPAND SOME 1"+ AMOUNTS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE CA SIERRAS...AND TO TRIM THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH OF THESE
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE MULTI MODEL HIGH RES MEAN AND
THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.

...NEW MEXICO...

APPEARS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR CONVECTION WILL EXIST OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. IN THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE
A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES TRAVERSE THE AREA...WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ALSO BECOMING VERY DIFFLUENT TO THE NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 0.75"...WHICH DOES END UP
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE. WITH THE HELP OF
DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE DETAIL DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST AMONGST THE MODELS...THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL AMONGST THE 0Z
HIGH RES GUIDANCE FOR A SWATH OF 0.5"-1" RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
CAP ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5". WPC QPF ENDS UP PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE HREF MEAN GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD CLUSTERING SEEN IN
THE HIGH RES SOLUTIONS.

...FLORIDA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE PERSISTENT POST
FRONTAL EAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME EXPECTED ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA DAY 1. GENERALLY ONLY LOOKING AT LIGHT AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN SHORE...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED 1" TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE.

...LOWER TX COAST...

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
MIGRATE WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
IMPACT THE LOWER TX COASTAL AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS INFLOW AXIS OVER THE
LOWER TX COASTAL REGIONS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
CORES POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL THE CONSENSUS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE HEAVIER TOTALS OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED 1"
TOTALS COULD MAKE IT RIGHT TO THE COASTLINE. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EXACT AXIS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM...AND THUS
WILL MAINTAIN THAT IDEA AND FOLLOW A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE HREF
MEAN...WHICH BRINGS THE BEST SHOWER THREAT ONSHORE NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTIE.

CHENARD


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 539205 539197 537184 534168 529162 526158 516148 503140
      495138 489135 481135 468139 463142 456144 450148 447149
      444147 442146 438145 434148 430154 431161 427161 425159
      420158 417160 409171 402172 397175 394178 396184 397188
      396192 393194 387192 379190 373187 368185 367186 366191
      368194 367199 366207 362210 358211 354208 352211 352215
      355221 371240 374246 383250 386257 388260 392261 397264
      403266 412270 420272 429273 442272 446270 450270 453271
      454273 458275 466277 472279 476279 482281 489284 493287
      494290 497295 498297 501299 507298 511295 519275 521266
      523259 526241 527229 529225 531224 535220 537213 539205
 0.01 506709 505704 503700 499695 495693 488695 480698 475702
      471703 471694 471690 474687 477684 480683 485680 489676
      492669 491658 489652 485648 482649 479651 474656 467666
      464695 461701 455704 452708 453716 460716 465713 466710
      468713 467717 467722 466727 467732 471736 474738 477740
      480739 482741 486741 490739 492737 497734 501729 506709
 0.01 492238 491235 491234 490234 489237 491237 492238
 0.01 380096 380092 380089 379085 377084 375086 373089 373091
      371095 370097 370100 374100 376098 378098 380096
 0.01 379078 378076 378071 377069 375066 373064 371064 368063
      368064 369066 371068 373071 374075 374078 375080 377080
      379078
 0.01 360188 359185 357185 355184 353183 352183 350183 349183
      348185 347185 347187 347189 347190 348192 350193 352193
      354192 356191 358190 360188 360188
 0.01 365103 362090 358087 357082 356074 353069 355067 358067
      362069 362066 361063 359057 357053 353054 351053 351050
      348047 344045 352029 354024 350022 345024 328026 315038
      309037 303034 298033 293035 290037 287041 283049 278052
      274056 269058 266058 263056 256051 251050 247048 240047
      237051 236058 237061 239062 254071 259074 264072 268069
      275069 280068 285068 291069 295069 300067 306069 310071
      315074 317079 319083 320093 331092 334096 338099 342101
      347101 351099 354096 358099 361103 365103
 0.01 341766 340761 336759 331760 329763 318770 315772 312776
      308778 305780 292785 273789 256791 251790 246792 240796
      226801 223803 222807 224815 226823 229828 231832 236832
      240827 242825 245824 249829 252831 258831 265829 268823
      270816 274815 277817 281824 283826 287825 292821 302819
      308814 316804 332782 341766
 0.01 329012 327010 322009 316009 313011 302010 291009 284005
      280007 279011 280016 283018 287017 292016 297015 300017
      306018 309019 320020 327017 329012
 0.01 321952 321947 317945 314947 312949 308952 305956 303958
      305960 308962 314962 316960 319956 321952 321952
 0.01 302893 300889 297885 290882 274877 265875 262874 256874
      253875 253880 254885 255889 249894 248900 249906 253921
      246925 240931 235935 233938 232942 235951 239957 247970
      252970 257972 260975 261980 264988 268992 276990 283994
      288997 293000 297000 297996 295990 291984 289981 290977
      293968 290964 291961 295953 298945 297941 296937 294933
      291930 290921 288918 289914 295908 297904 299899 302893
 0.25 517265 519258 519252 519247 517241 511224 508219 505212
      502204 501200 503197 510196 520197 522195 524191 525184
      525178 523171 521164 517158 511152 506148 497143 494141
      490142 488145 486150 483154 477155 470156 462155 455157
      451158 447160 444160 442162 445164 446168 450173 450182
      442190 439194 438199 440204 443208 447209 450209 455205
      454211 448214 442213 436209 435205 431202 427201 424198
      422198 419195 415197 411201 409204 405205 397202 391198
      384195 380195 377199 380207 383210 387212 397219 404223
      405226 403228 385225 382227 381230 383237 389243 394247
      398251 404255 420261 427260 433258 445255 457254 465253
      469254 475255 481261 486267 495278 499282 503285 506284
      510280 513274 517265
 0.25 504260 502252 499245 496239 491232 489229 485227 481225
      478225 481234 484237 487237 493243 496249 500256 504260
 0.25 482201 483196 481193 476191 473191 468191 462191 457194
      456201 461204 466208 471207 476205 480202 482201
 0.25 431185 430185 429184 428185 427186 426186 426188 428188
      429187 430186 431185
 0.25 344083 344076 341072 340065 341061 340056 336053 335045
      335039 332038 328040 320046 316051 315056 315063 318067
      321071 323076 324082 328085 334084 339084 344083
 0.25 299811 298807 297805 295803 292801 290801 287800 283802
      283803 284806 286810 286812 288814 291816 293816 295815
      298813 299811
 0.25 280800 278799 276797 273796 270795 268796 264796 262796
      260799 261801 263803 265804 269805 272805 276804 279803
      280800
 0.25 285972 282964 279956 274947 269941 259941 255943 255947
      255954 256958 258962 261965 266971 272978 276979 279977
      283975 285972
 0.25 282902 283900 283898 282897 281896 280895 278895 276894
      275894 273893 271894 270894 269894 268896 269898 269899
      271900 273901 275902 277903 279903 280904 282902 282902
 0.25 256816 256814 255813 254814 254816 255817 256816
 0.25 244809 243807 241807 240807 240808 238809 238810 237812
      238813 240813 242813 243811 243810 244809
 0.50 515261 516256 516251 513242 511235 508228 504217 500212
      495208 487206 480207 470211 463210 460207 457212 451214
      426217 417221 416215 410215 399206 394202 387199 384198
      381199 381202 384207 389211 402219 407223 408228 406231
      401229 395228 391230 389231 388236 399245 401248 405249
      412251 416256 421257 427257 431255 443250 455248 464246
      470246 476247 481251 486257 489263 494267 498273 502277
      505279 506274 506271 505266 503264 498258 492245 488239
      482239 478230 474224 475222 479221 486224 491228 497239
      500243 503249 509262 512264 515261
 0.50 516182 516177 515173 512168 505164 500161 494156 497156
      501155 502152 500147 493144 491145 491150 491153 488154
      484157 478162 477164 476169 476179 477183 481185 484182
      485179 490177 498178 504181 509185 514185 516182
 0.50 427232 426230 424228 423228 421228 422231 424232 425233
      427232
 0.50 429209 427207 426206 424206 422206 421207 420209 420211
      421214 423215 425214 426213 427212 428211 429210 429209
 0.50 339078 338071 335064 335058 332052 331046 327046 325047
      322052 319056 318061 320063 324067 326072 327079 331081
      334080 339078
 0.50 280972 278966 276960 274956 270949 267945 264947 263952
      263956 265962 268966 271972 272974 275975 280972
 1.00 500232 501227 501225 500221 498219 497215 495215 494214
      491213 487212 485215 486220 490220 491222 493225 494228
      496231 498233 500232
 1.00 498151 498150 497148 496148 495147 494148 494150 495151
      496152 497152 498151
 1.00 494169 494165 493163 490162 488162 487160 483160 482163
      483166 484171 485172 489173 490172 493171 494169
 1.00 484214 482213 481212 479213 479215 480216 481218 483217
      484215 484214
 1.00 470220 470216 468213 462213 458215 453216 447216 442216
      433220 427220 423222 425225 430228 435233 432237 428238
      423236 418232 412231 409235 407235 404234 398236 398237
      401240 402237 413243 421249 425251 430250 438244 449242
      453241 454240 455236 450233 450229 452228 457227 461227
      470220
 1.00 409218 408217 407216 405217 406218 408218 409218
 1.00 405215 402213 399211 398208 396205 394204 391203 387203
      390206 392208 393210 395212 398215 399216 401215 405215
 1.50 490168 489166 488166 487167 487168 489169 490168
 1.50 469217 468216 466216 465216 466217 468218 469217
 1.50 464221 464216 461215 456217 449218 441217 436222 429223
      430224 433227 437229 440227 444228 450227 455224 463223
      464221
 1.50 429245 429241 428240 425238 421237 418235 415234 414234
      412238 415241 417242 420245 423246 427246 429245
 2.00 463221 463218 461217 460218 459219 457219 456218 455218
      455221 457221 459221 460222 462221 463221
 2.00 450222 448220 447220 445219 444218 443218 443217 443220
      443222 444225 446225 448225 449224 450223 450222
 2.00 428243 428242 426241 424239 423239 423238 421238 420238
      419238 418237 416236 415239 417240 419240 420242 421243
      422244 424244 425243 427243 428243

$$





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