Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 291842
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 30/0000 UTC THRU OCT 01/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING LITTLE
MOVEMENT OVERALL DAY 1 TO THE STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY.  A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO THE NORTH
OF THIS SLOW MOVING CENTER INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.  MODEL
PERFORMANCE WITH DETAILS HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO
WITH THIS SYSTEM...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE UPCOMING
FORECAST PERIODS DETAILS.  THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIAN...IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHWEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND THEN WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  HEAVIEST TOTALS HERE
LIKELY FROM NORTHWEST VA---ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST WV INTO FAR
SW PA...NORTHEAST OH AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST L.P. OF MI WHERE A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT
TRAINING POTENTIAL.  LIGHTER TOTALS EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED HEAVY
TOTALS POSSIBLE HERE.

MID ATLANTIC

THERE ARE MORE MODEL DIFFERENCES FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC.  SPECIFICALLY HOW FAR INLAND ANY PRECIP ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PUSHES INLAND.  THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1 OFF THE ATLANTIC AND INTO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF--ALONG
WITH THE NAM ARE SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS IN
THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PA---DE AND NJ...WHILE THE HI RES RUNS OF
THE ARW---NMMB ALONG WITH THE GFS ARE NOT AS WET.  AT THE
MOMENT---AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO PHI---DAY 1 QPF LEANED
TOWARD THE WETTER EC SOLUTIONS HERE--WITH AREAL AVERAGE 1"+
AMOUNTS DEPICTED AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER TOTALS WHERE PRECIP
BANDS BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED.

SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PERSIST DAY 1 TO THE EAST OF THE
AMPLIFYING CLOSED LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST---STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN---CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THIS STREAM OF SHORTWAVES---WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 535198 535187 532181 529177 526168 523163 520158 514152
      507143 504140 501139 494143 490134 483128 479127 476129
      475132 476135 482137 496151 494166 497177 501186 506196
      512203 515206 520207 528205 532204 534203 535198 535198
 0.01 493171 492168 490165 489162 487160 485158 482157 479156
      477159 477164 478167 481169 482171 485173 489174 491173
      493171
 0.01 471305 473296 473290 475283 477274 478265 478259 477253
      474246 470242 465240 460237 455237 450238 447241 443244
      439250 435253 431254 420257 415258 412259 402265 398268
      402272 407276 410278 410282 408289 409294 412300 418303
      423302 427303 432305 438305 443306 448306 453306 460308
      467308 471305
 0.01 225052 225057 228059 233065 236069 241074 248081 255086
      269094 276097 284095 291094 297098 304106 308108 311111
      317111 321109 326109 331116 335121 342123 345131 348136
      352137 359134 362132 366131 371131 375130 386122 392119
      394117 399118 404119 407114 409113 411114 415116 423121
      426123 429123 431119 434117 444119 448115 452108 453105
      453097 447092 440088 435090 431089 426084 423085 421088
      419092 417092 415094 413093 410091 406092 405091 401089
      401085 403083 408077 413073 415070 414066 414059 413057
      408051 401050 392049 386049 383051 380054 377055 376051
      374048 371045 365043 362046 359048 348055 333066 325062
      319059 312054 306051 293045 285041 275038 265036 260036
      257034 253028 252024 248022 246020 245016 247013 247008
      251999 251996 250990 250986 248981 246977 244972 238967
      234965 232963 231965
 0.01 455855 452838 447825 434792 432785 431774 434762 436752
      437747 436741 434730 430723 427717 423711 421706 419703
      418698 410681 407676 401671 391667 381665 373667 367672
      364676 363679 361686 360694 357700 352702 347706 341712
      338719 333732 329737 327740 328744 324755 321760 320764
      320773 326788 330792 335795 338797 344799 349801 352803
      356808 361813 361821 364825 368831 372834 374835 375838
      367853 365858 363862 363867 364877 366885 368889 372894
      379899 386900 394899 403899 410899 415894 420893 422891
      426891 442885 446882 451875 453865 455855
 0.01 297813 297805 295802 290802 285800 280796 275794 266795
      259797 253800 248803 246805 244809 244815 246823 249829
      252834 255839 262840 268842 277840 288834 295824 297813
 0.25 467267 467257 465252 462249 459247 455248 448251 441255
      435262 434265 434271 437275 441276 450277 457276 462276
      465273 467267
 0.25 442856 442848 442840 440826 436812 432800 426791 421783
      420778 421770 423756 422742 419731 413722 407712 401704
      394699 390697 384697 378698 373700 369703 367707 362715
      360720 358727 357734 356739 347755 348763 350769 355781
      365798 367803 371808 373814 377819 379822 381827 383840
      382846 380853 375863 373867 372871 372875 374880 377883
      381887 388887 400885 404883 407880 412872 416868 418866
      422867 431871 437869 439866 442856
 0.25 403072 404067 402063 393064 390064 387067 385069 380069
      373069 365072 369075 376079 381080 390081 394081 397079
      402074 403072
 0.25 342094 344090 344085 341080 335076 329077 323079 317078
      310076 305072 298064 287056 276052 263047 253041 247039
      243038 238039 234043 234047 235056 235059 237062 243071
      254078 262084 268087 276088 287086 301084 306086 310089
      315094 322096 332096 338095 342094
 0.25 288812 287808 282804 274801 268800 263800 259801 255806
      257809 262813 264816 261819 257820 254822 255828 258832
      262834 268835 273834 278832 281822 285819 287814 288812
 0.50 463261 464258 461255 459254 456254 454254 451255 449256
      447258 445260 445264 448265 452266 455266 457266 460265
      462263 463261
 0.50 438844 437832 436823 433812 429802 426799 423796 418793
      412788 409784 409777 412771 417766 414743 414737 413732
      409726 404719 398712 392709 387707 382707 376709 373713
      371716 368724 368732 371742 375751 379758 381763 380767
      371772 366778 365782 365786 368795 372804 378809 384812
      389817 401828 404837 409842 416844 421845 425848 432853
      436850 438844
 0.50 399871 399866 398861 394853 393844 391840 388840 386847
      383856 381864 379866 376868 376873 378877 383882 387883
      391881 397877 399871
 0.50 337091 338089 338087 338084 337084 336083 334083 332083
      330082 328083 326083 325085 325087 326088 328089 330090
      331091 333091 335091 337091 337091
 0.50 290079 292075 291072 288067 279061 268056 258049 254047
      247044 241045 237049 238055 240061 243065 247068 257075
      266081 273082 281082 290079
 0.50 271830 272828 271827 270826 269825 267825 267824 265824
      263823 262823 261823 259823 258824 259825 259827 260828
      262829 263829 263830 265830 267830 268831 269831 271831
      271830
 1.00 434835 434829 433823 429814 426808 420801 414796 407792
      402788 396782 390779 381778 377780 374783 373788 373793
      374796 376799 383804 389807 396810 401811 409814 413819
      418825 422832 428839 433838 434835
 1.00 412760 409749 407737 401730 396724 391723 387727 384726
      382729 383735 382741 382747 383753 385758 388762 391763
      397763 400764 403764 404762 412760
 1.00 260063 259061 257060 255059 254057 253057 252056 250055
      249054 248054 246054 246056 246057 247058 248059 249060
      250061 251062 253063 255064 257064 258065 260063
 1.50 429821 423808 420804 414800 409798 403795 398791 394787
      388783 381783 377787 377794 379796 383796 388800 394801
      396799 399800 410808 419815 429823 429821
 1.50 397756 396755 395754 396753 396752 396750 395750 394747
      393747 392746 391746 390746 389746 389748 389751 390752
      391753 392754 393755 394756 396756 396757 397756
 2.00 389790 389787 389786 388785 387785 385785 383785 381785
      380787 379789 379791 380793 381793 382794 384795 385795
      386795 387795 388794 389792 389791 389790

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.