Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231852
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 24/0000 UTC THRU JUN 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN/SERN US NEWD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEYS/APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATL/NORTHEAST...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY IS FORECAST BY WPC TO TRACK ENEWD FROM
KY TO THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS INCREASINGLY
INFLUNCED BY APPROACHING MIDWEST NRN STREAM FLOW. RADAR SHOWS
QUITE AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN NOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD. LEAD FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AXIS
FOCUSING BANDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-UPPER OH
VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND N-CENTRAL
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS ADDED BY THETAE ADVECTION AND DEEP
MOISTURE INFLOW (PWS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL) FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND WRN ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUSPECT POTENTIAL FOR CELL
TRAINING AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN TERRAIN LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF CINDY
COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2-4" LOCALLY THAT WOULD LEAD
TO RUNOFF ISSUES. A MODERATE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AREA HAS
BEEN ISSUED BY WPC. RAINFALL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN NEW ENG
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. MAINTAINED GOOD WPC
CONTINUITY IN THIS FLOW BUT DID ADJUST FOR A TREND TOWARD
PROGRSSION SHOWN BY MUCH 12 UTC MODEL GUDIANCE.

AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE AXIS WITH EMBEDDED CELL CLUSTERS TRAILS
SOUTHWARD THEN THROUGH THE S-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS INTO
THE SRN/SERN US AND BACK INTO THE SRN PLAINS...INCREASINGLY PUSHED
SOUTH/SEWD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING/WAVY TRAILING COLD FRONT IN THE
WAKE OF CINDY AND ANY OUTFLOW FROM GENERATED CONVECTION AND
IMPULSE ENERGIES DROPPING ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL US. WHILE ACTIVITY
WILL BE GENERALLY ORGANIZED BUT LOCALLY MAXIMIZED IN THIS FLOW...A
CONCERN IS THAT AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES COULD BE
MORE SUBJECT TO RUNOFF ISSUES AFTER GETTING SO MUCH RAIN FROM
CINDY ALONG/EAST OF RECENT LANDFALL. MESO MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH CONVECTIVE MAXIMA BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHERE
POTENTIAL BUT UNCERTAINTY ARE LARGER. OVERALL...WPC QPF BLENDED A
LARGE PERCENTAGE OF CONTINUITY ALONG WITH LATEST DETAIL/TRENDS
FROM THE 12 UTC ARW.

FOR MORE ON CINDY...PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 545757 544760 543761 541761 540764 538764 536765 535765
      535762 534760 536757 536754 535752 537748 536746 536743
      538740 539737 539734 540731 533707 527704 522705 519703
      509705 504707 499714 497726 496736 496743 496750 498767
      497783 498787 500791 500797 500810 500817 498822 499829
      498835 498840 496844 492851 496871 501895 503908 507915
      515928 524944 531963 533970 534977 536991 537998 537006
      535011 534013 482003 477997 474985 461975 454971 449966
      445964 443961 439958 436956 435952 435945 434939 428935
      423928 422915 438886 440880 440875 436868 430863 423866
      416872 410873 409870 407870 405866 408862 410856 415851
      420844 425838 428836 428830 428818 428810 427807 425807
      417821 412831 406840 395854 385866 374880 361913 358921
      358933 358946 358952 359955 361968 362974 362979 361983
      361989 360994 359997 357002 354005 348013 345017 343023
      342027 342034 347050 345055 343057 339059 335059 332060
      333062 335065 342070 345074 346078 341084 339087 334089
      322088 318089 314091 309096 307098 302098 292098 288098
      285094 280092 278090 278088 278082 276079 272073 266066
      265063 267058 270055 274054 276056 276062 276067 278069
      284070 287073 291075 302077 312078 320075 323073 325069
      326063 325057 321048 317044 311043 308045 305044 298040
      295036 297033 302028 303024 301020 298013 291000 286991
      276992 265994 262995 259992 257988 259986 261982 259979
      255976 261972 266966 272962 276958 278955 281946 285929
      286923 286917 286911 287908 291885 293873 294863 296853
      299846 304839 309833 314828 314824 312822
 0.01 312822 316818 320813 325801 337777 349754 356742 358736
      362729 365723 367717 374706 380694 388682 396672 403669
      409665 421659 432650 437646 442646 457642 460643 462640
      467636 482629 490624 501621
 0.01 533176 534168 533163 532156 529151 525142 522138 519133
      514126 511122 507119 498118 496119 494117 491114 484108
      481105 478104 477107 478112 480118 482123 482126 480126
      475126 473129 474134 477137 482138 485141 489145 493150
      506162 514168 520176 523179 528180 533176
 0.01 473108 473106 472103 469100 467099 463099 461101 459101
      460104 463105 464107 468110 469110 471110 473108
 0.01 456803 455789 454774 452772 449775 443783 438789 435792
      434795 436799 437811 441820 443824 446828 453831 456831
      456828 456820 455806 456803
 0.01 453098 452097 448096 445094 443093 440091 438090 436090
      434095 436098 439098 441096 443099 446099 450100 452100
      453098
 0.01 451078 450075 448073 448070 445067 443067 440067 438069
      438071 439072 443074 444077 446078 448080 449080 451078
 0.01 414029 414021 413015 412009 411003 407991 403988 401982
      399979 396982 392986 392991 390002 388015 391027 393031
      398033 407038 411037 414031 414029
 0.01 387198 385193 382190 378188 375185 372183 366181 363183
      360183 360185 364188 367190 370192 373196 377200 382201
      386199 387198
 0.01 401053 401048 397046 394043 389043 378042 375039 369038
      362043 360047 359051 365057 370057 374055 382056 386057
      389059 393059 397057 401053
 0.01 328161 326157 322156 312152 305147 298142 292137 288134
      284135 285139 287142 294148 301153 307158 316162 321164
      326163 328161
 0.01 302819 301815 299813 297811 293811 288808 282806 270801
      262801 256803 252806 252809 255815 261825 265827 266829
      266835 270839 274840 277842 283842 288838 292834 296828
      300823 302819
 0.25 507646 507640 505638 500640 494641 491647 487648 486647
      484644 481643 474647 471652 470661 466668 456677 451693
      449701 446707 444714 441720 433720 428717 421708 421702
      419696 417694 412690 414683 413678 409679 405681 404684
      401691 399699 402701 401707 398712 391724 388730 385736
      382752 380757 380765 381771 381776 378783 372793 362806
      358811 354815 349817 345812 342805 344797 348786 349778
      347776 345777 341783 338790 333803 327816 325825 323831
      317842 311854 303880 300888 298896 293912 292919 292925
      292933 291941 289948 287954 281966 278973 278977 279980
      283982 286981 293981 302980 304981 304985 301992 300998
      301002 303004 311006 317018 320018 321015 324010 326002
      328000 332000 341001 346996 347989 348983 348973 346963
      345954 343944 343935 343924 346908 350896 351886 351878
      350873 351867 354861 357857 361858 367861 374858 384850
      401828 407817 414805 419791 422778 424770 429764 436759
      440753 443747 448743 454739 457738 461738 466737 472735
      476734 479735 481742 482747 484746 485737 483722 481716
      481709 483701 489689 491680 492670 492660 492651 500652
      503652 506650 507646
 0.25 517156 517151 516145 514140 512136 507134 503132 499131
      496133 497139 500144 502147 505151 509153 512155 517156
      517156
 0.25 517968 516962 514959 512954 510955 509949 509944 508939
      502924 495908 491902 488900 483900 476901 473903 473910
      477916 481922 485929 487937 490946 492955 497960 502967
      505973 507976 512977 517968
 0.25 290087 288087 287087 288088 290088 290087
 0.25 270820 272818 270816 270815 269814 268814 266813 264814
      263815 263817 264818 265819 266819 268820 270820 270820
 0.50 486676 486671 485667 482660 480658 478666 471676 468689
      466695 462700 454710 453715 454719 456722 466723 472721
      476717 479701 482690 486676
 0.50 421735 420730 418726 412723 409719 409714 408712 405712
      399719 394727 389734 386742 385752 386762 386769 385773
      383781 380789 377797 366813 362818 355823 349828 344831
      338827 336825 334826 331830 323844 320851 316853 315856
      309872 303891 299908 297918 296928 297940 298943 297946
      293953 290961 289967 292970 296970 299968 304962 308968
      310977 310984 306992 306998 311000 315001 318000 324996
      327994 332993 340991 343983 344975 344965 342956 340943
      339932 338921 336911 337901 338890 343870 345862 349855
      354848 358847 363847 369851 372852 377852 381850 383847
      388840 397825 406811 410803 413795 415785 417774 419752
      419742 421735
 0.50 343792 343790 343788 342787 342788 340790 339792 339793
      338795 337796 337797 336800 335802 335804 336806 338804
      338803 339801 340800 340799 341797 342794 342792 343792
 0.50 323913 322910 319908 316915 314924 313932 310939 308947
      307950 309951 312948 314941 315936 317933 319926 321917
      323913
 1.00 479683 478682 477684 478684 479683
 1.00 410780 409764 408760 407759 403759 402757 401750 401745
      401730 400726 398728 395731 392736 390741 390747 392752
      393760 392766 388777 388784 386790 383800 377810 371831
      371838 373843 377844 381841 384837 387833 392823 396813
      402804 406795 408789 409782 410780
 1.00 346849 345845 344842 341840 338843 336845 335848 334850
      334854 335856 337859 339861 340860 342858 344854 345851
      346849
 1.00 338984 336973 338969 338962 337952 335941 332930 332926
      330925 328927 328934 324943 324949 325955 327965 330973
      333983 336985 338984
 1.00 332867 332863 330863 328868 325869 323866 320868 317873
      316879 315883 316887 318881 321876 323874 327874 331874
      332867
 1.00 330850 329848 328850 329851 330850
 1.00 328855 328852 327852 327853 327855 327856 328855
 1.50 402790 402786 401784 397784 391793 387802 382812 377822
      376828 375835 377839 380839 382837 387828 391817 394807
      399797 402790
 1.50 332956 333954 333952 333949 333947 333945 332943 332942
      330942 329943 328945 328946 328947 328949 328950 329952
      329954 330956 332956 332956
 2.00 387820 392806 393798 389803 384815 383818 381820 380823
      379825 378828 377832 380834 382832 383829 385827 386822
      387820

$$





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