Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 291918 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 318 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA. DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY. AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY. DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE COAST. OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION FOR THIS PAST NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS... W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON ...AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ...BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS (AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESP ACY AND MIV. SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS... OTHERWISE VFR. SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG. TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS... NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC. WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4 UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE. OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO. CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60, SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW. && .CLIMATE... MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29. CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY EVENING. ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922. AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD. 1991 67.2 2012 66.1 1944 66.0 2004 65.9 PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD. 1991 70.8 NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004. ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874 2004 66.9 1991 66.0 2015 WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST 1896 70.1 1991 69.1 2004 68.2 2015 AROUND 68.0 NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANCK NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...FRANCK AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK RIP CURRENTS... CLIMATE...

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