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450
FXUS61 KPHI 111728
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
128 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure over the region late this morning will move
offshore this evening. Low pressure centered over Lake Huron
early this afternoon will move eastward through this evening
into Sunday. High pressure builds south of the Mid-Atlantic
region Sunday night into Monday. Another area of low pressure
brings more unsettled weather by the middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A sea breeze will keep coastal areas sunny into the late
afternoon. Otherwise clouds are increasing west of the sea breeze
as the next disturbance approaches the area.

For tonight, some shower activity will begin to work its way into
the area after sunset from west to east as surface low moves
eastward from the Great Lakes region. The low will be
accompanied by a cold front, but the overall strength of the
system will be weakening as it nears. Widespread rain showers
are anticipated especially north and west of the Delaware Valley
where better forcing will be present. Rainfall up to a quarter
of an inch is expected. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.

H5 trough with associated vorticity advenction will be moving
over the region on Sunday. With additional lift provided by
weak warm air advection, Sunday looks to be a rather wet and
cool day. Maximum temperatures are expected in the upper
50s to lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

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By Sunday evening, the trough starts to clear and the area should
begin to dry out as ridging builds in from the west. Expecting a
spread of 40s for overnight lows to close out the weekend.

A nice start to the week is expected with a broad area of high
pressure working in. Temperatures moderate back to near-normal
levels for mid-May, with low to mid 70s expected for most. The
exception being the southern Poconos and along the coast, where
highs will stay in the 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny with some
passing clouds at times
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The work week looks to continue to be somewhat active with a
couple of systems moving through during the week. Temperatures
are forecast to be close to normal for early to mid May.
Ensemble guidance points to rainfall but continues to suggest
that forcing is not currently lining up to lead to much in the
way of any severe weather for the week ahead.

The first system to bring showers and thunderstorms should move
through on Tuesday but again the best shear and instability
don`t overlap so while there is a medium to high chance
(60-70%) of showers and embedded thunderstorms, we are not
anticipating any severe weather. The wet weather is expected to
linger through the day on Wednesday before a ridge builds in for
Thursday bringing dry sensible weather. Towards the end of the
week or perhaps the weekend, the next system starts moving
towards the region and will have the potential to bring another
round of showers with embedded thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

This afternoon...VFR. Winds becoming E-SE 5 to 10 knots.


Tonight...VFR early, then ceilings will be dropping into the
1500 to 3000 ft range as rain showers move into the area after
03Z Lehigh Valley and Poconos, and after 06Z for the remainder
of the region. Visibility may drop to 3-5SM in fog late tonight.
Southeast winds 5-10 kt.

Sunday...Ceilings around 1000ft and visibility 3-5SM all
locations with periods of light rain. East to southeast winds
around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low ceilings
and reduced visibility with rain ending.

Monday through Tuesday...No significant weather expected.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions expected
with showers. Chance of thunderstorms (15-25%) Tuesday night
into Wednesday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters from Manasquan Inlet to
Fenwick Island until 6 PM today due to seas remaining above 5 feet.
Elsewhere, seas will remain below SCA criteria. Winds east to southeast
10-15 kt. Southeast winds then continue into tonight around 10-15
kt. Seas are expected to subside to 3-4ft tonight and Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...No marine headlines expected.

Monday Night through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible
(30-40%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Seas will get near 5 feet
on Wednesday.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is forecast again for the Saturday
evening high tide in New Jersey and Delaware however the flood
waters should be on the order of about a half of a foot lower
than earlier Saturday. For the Chesapeake, flooding is not
expected at this time for our Maryland zones.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Deal/Franklin
NEAR TERM...Desilva/Franklin
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Deal/Desilva/Franklin
MARINE...Deal/Desilva/Franklin
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...