Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KPHI 242053
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
453 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
A warm front over the southern tier of New York will become
nearly stationary near our region thru Tuesday, as several waves
of low pressure move along it. A cold frontal passage is
expected Tuesday night, followed by high pressure from Canada,
which will build into our area Wednesday through Thursday. A
warm front may approach our region by Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Tonight will be quite the difference from the last few nights as
temperatures overnight will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal thanks
to the persistent warm air advection that began this morning. Lows
across the region should range from the lower 40s to lower 50s.
With the southerly flow, we have also seen moisture advection as
evidenced by dewpoints now about 10 to 15 degrees higher than what
we saw at sunrise this morning. This will increase the risk for fog.
However, I don`t think that we will see any dense fog and I think
coverage will be more limited than what some models (primarily the
GFS) are depicting. The GFS depicted more moisture advection than
what we have seen so far and also depicted far more QPF than what we
got. As a result, I suspect that the boundary layer is drier than
what the GFS is depicting.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The warm front that lifted through our region earlier today, is
expected to stall and then possibly retreat slightly south, though
still staying just north of our region. As it does so however, a
weak low will propagate along the front, bringing a chance for
precipitation on both sides of the front. As with today, the GFS
shows the most extensive QPF as compared to the other models. Given
how weak the low is that is expected tomorrow, think this is
Temperature wise, with our region firmly in the warm sector we
should be well above normal with highs ranging from the mid 50s to
lower 70s despite persistent cloud cover. One caveat though is that
if the northeasterly flow develops earlier than forecast (at this
point we don`t expect to see that wind shift until later in the
day), it could temper the warming trend.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --An unsettled period of weather is in store Sunday thru Tuesday.
At the mid-levels across the conus, a generally zonal northern
stream flow will be in place, while several shortwave
disturbances traverse the southern stream. Meanwhile at the
surface, Canadian and sub-tropical high pressure systems will
maintain a frontal boundary in the vicinity of our region until
a more substantial frontal passage in the Tuesday night time
frame. Temperature-wise, at or above normal through the period
The primary uncertainty will be the location of the aforementioned
boundary, along with the timing of several areas of low pressure
that ride along it, and accompanying areas of precipitation.
Most notably, the NAM and GFS have trended stronger and further
south with the backdoor front, which brings colder temperatures
and a more robust easterly flow to our region for the second
half of the weekend. For the most part, the models remain
consistently too warm for freezing rain Sunday night into Monday
morning, but the cold air is close enough that it cannot be
totally discounted. Given the trends with respect to the
placement of the front within an overrunning regime, there is
now an increasing chance of freezing rain or drizzle Saturday
night into Sunday morning.
In terms hydrology, given the above normal temperatures through
the long term, the snow pack north of I-78 will continue to
melt. The model consensus brings additional rainfall amounts of
one to two inches across this area through Wednesday, most of
this spread out between more substantial precip Sunday night-
Monday and Tuesday night. Unless there are significant changes,
we expect rises on area streams and rivers, but no flooding
concerns at this time.
There is also the potential for spotty minor coastal flooding
along the ocean front for the late Sunday and early Monday high
As the frontal boundary moves southward in response to Canadian high
pressure building to the north, scattered showers are possible
across our entire area Saturday night into Sunday. Model
soundings depict rich low-level moisture within the post-frontal
maritime air mass, which will be conducive to low clouds,
drizzle, and perhaps patchy fog. Two meter temperatures may be
close to freezing Saturday night into Sunday morning, mainly
near and to the north of I-80, per the higher resolution NAM,
WRF-ARW, and NMM. While antecedent conditions are not that cold,
there is some potential for showers and drizzle to result in a
light ice glaze on elevated surfaces.
There is uncertainty with regard to ice glaze Saturday night
into Sunday morning, but the probability has increased, and we
have included a mention in the HWO (per our directives). This
will need to reassessed with future forecast packages, as we`re
looking for continued run to run model consistency. If confidence
increases, an ice map will be posted to our website, and
further advisory headlines will be considered.
As low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes
from Sunday night into Monday, more substantial overrunning
precip is likely during this time frame.
As mentioned previously, the models have exhibited run-to-run
consistency with regard to the thermal profile Sunday night into
Monday morning, which does not favor freezing rain. In
addition, boundary layer winds are sufficiently strong enough to
advect warm air northward through the low-level column, despite
somewhat of an in-situ cold air damming signature. In addition,
the lack of low-level dry air will limit any evaporational
cooling. Again, given the proximity of the cold air, we cannot
rule out freezing rain, but the probability of it occurring is
Expect showers to continue Monday afternoon into Wednesday,
with another round of more substantial precip likely centered on
Tuesday night, associated with a cold frontal passage. We do
not anticipate any p-type issues during this period. There is
uncertainty with the timing of this front, particularly given
the time range, with the GFS being the most progressive. At this
time, we expect a gradual return to fair weather on Wednesday,
continuing into Thursday. By Friday, a warm front may approach
the region, along with an increase in cloudiness and a chance of
-- End Changed Discussion --
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
VFR conditions will continue through at least 06Z, and will likely
continue through 18Z. A few models depict low stratus or fog
developing in the southern Poconos and getting close to KRDG and
KABE after 06Z tonight. For now, I have not included this in the
TAFs as the primary guidance showing this, the GFS, depicted more
rain than what actually fell this morning, so is likely too wet with
ground conditions. By 18Z however, ceilings and visibility will
start to lower across the region as rain showers begin to move in to
Southwesterly winds will gust near 20kt through the day time
hours, but should drop below 10 kt by 00Z. After 12Z, winds will
gradually shift from southwesterly to westerly through mid day,
before shifting to northeasterly late in the day.
Low level wind shear is possible between 02 and 10Z with a low
level jet of 35 kt around 2000 ft AGL.
Saturday night-Tuesday...MVFR or IFR conditions with a chance
of rain possible through the period.
Winds gusting just above 25 kt and seas around 5 ft (on the coastal
waters) will continue through the early evening hours before
diminishing overnight. Once winds and seas drop below SCA criteria
tonight, sub-SCA conditions are expected through the day time hours
Saturday-Saturday night...Conditions expected to fall below
Sunday-Sunday night...Small Craft Advisory levels possible.
Monday-Tuesday...Winds may be below advisory levels, but seas
could remain elevated leading to Small Craft Advisory levels.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ454-
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-