Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 221702 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 102 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1230 PM UPDATE; SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE NOW AS SEEN ON TPHL..MOVING WEST..SHALLOW LOW TOPPED UNDER 4000 FT. MEANWHILE SCT SHOWERS IN DEEPER MOISTURE FLOWING SEWD FROM CENTRAL PA WILL PROBABLY AFFECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF E PA AND THE DELMARVA THIS AFTN AND THUS OUR FCST OF SCT SHOWERS. WHETHER THERE IS ANY THUNDER IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND NOT LIKELY EXCEPT MAYBE THE DELMARVA. THUNDER COVERAGE HAS BEEN REDUCED IN THE FCST BY USING WX TOOL AOB SBLI -2. OTRW MOCLOUDY. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER. SO I`VE SORT OF GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF BIG TSTMS PRODUCING POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING RAINS IN E PA TONIGHT BUT I`D LIKE ANOTHER LOOK AT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AROUND 215 PM. OTRW TONIGHT MO CLOUDY WITH A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS...MOSTLY LIGHT. THE FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE ALREADY UPDATED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON SUING THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
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DEEPER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY MIGHT RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN ENE FLOW MAX GUST 20 MPH. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS 1500 TO 3000 FT WITH SCT SPRINKLES MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA AND E PA LATE BUT NOT ENVISIONED PREDOMINANT. ELY FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT. TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDS IF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW. SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. && .RIP CURRENTS...
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LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON NEAR TERM...DRAG 102 SHORT TERM...DRAG 102 LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 102 MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 102 RIP CURRENTS...102

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