Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 230747 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD. THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND OVER THE REGION. THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES. TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE, BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NWLY FLOW && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE WHOLE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S. CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL FROST HEADLINES. ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW WIND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP. THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT. STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST. OUTLOOK... THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE... THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE BAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO GLW IF NEEDED. OUTLOOK... THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO. THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY. RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027. DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001>004. MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA FIRE WEATHER...STAFF

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