Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 260742 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 342 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR OR INTO OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND HOT WX TO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL APPROACH 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE AND CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED. THERE WILL BE LIGHT SW FLOW OVER THE AREA. IF THE SLY FLOW WAS STRONGER, TEMPS WOULD BE HIGHER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND EXPECT A CLEAR AND PLEASANT NIGHT. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL BE MOVG N OFF THE SERN CONUS COAST DURG THIS TIME. MDL GUID WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENLY FOLLOWED. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON CRISTOBAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF RETREATING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. AN AXIS OF VERY WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO THE +17C TO +18C RANGE. AS A RESULT, MOST LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH OR HIT THE 90 DEGREE MARK WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AND WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. WE WILL CARRY A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL SHOULD BE AT ITS CLOSEST TO OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT PASSES ABOUT 500 MILES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. IT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER BUT IT WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO KEEP OUR REGION RAIN-FREE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ANTICIPATED IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE HAVE MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY. AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NEARS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IT MAY PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD OR INTO OUR REGION. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ANOTHER DAY OF EXCELLENT FLYING WX WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES BRINGING VFR CONDS TO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCH GROUND FOG BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING THAT COULD YIELD LCL MVFR CONDS. OTHERWISE, FAIR WX CU WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY, BEFORE THE SKY GOES CLEAR OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT S TO SWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS GENLY AROUND 5 KTS DURG THE DAY AND 5 KTS OR LESS AT NIGHT. KACY MAY SEE A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM AROUND KRDG, KABE AND KTTN NORTHWARD. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WITH ELY FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SLY AND DECREASES, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET IN RESPONSE TO THE AFFECTS OF DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 12 TO 16 SECONDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE WAVES AND THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE INLETS ALONG THE COASTS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK. WIND AND WAVES ARE SLOWLY DECREASING AS ELY FLOW SUBSIDES AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. SO, WE WILL GO WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK AND INTENSITY FCST OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FROM NHC, CONDS CUD BECOME HIGH AGAIN WED AND THU AS CRISTOBAL MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH TO OUR AREA, ALBEIT WELL OFFSHORE, DURG THIS TIME. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG

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