Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 171632 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1132 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE FROM NEAR CAPE COD TO QUEBEC WILL MERGE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS CONTROL HERE ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN GEORGIA SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1230 PM ESTF SENT EARLY AT ABOUT 1130 AM. WARMED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL HEATING WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL GENERATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS...GUSTINESS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE POCONOS AND NW NJ WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS DURING MIDDAY OR THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT...THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES. THE NW PORTION COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES...I80 NORTH IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING 120M 12 HR 500MB HFC SWEEPING SEWD THRU THE POCONOS (12Z/17 KERIE 50-70M HFC). MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MUCH SENSIBLE WX RESPONSE. ALL WEATHER CHANGED TO FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS WHERE IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR CRYSTAL ICE NUCLEI. THURSDAY...WE ARE IN SERVICE BACKUP AND STERLING WILL BE WRITING THE FORECASTS STARTING AT ABOUT 8 AM. WILL BE A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES PER MODELED 925MB ABOUT 5C COOLER...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 MPH...MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS ...OTHERWISE MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONGTERM FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL PATTERN FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DEEPER MORE ESTABLISHED TROUGHING COMMENCES OVER THE MID-WEST. AMPLE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH FROM SUNDAY ONWARD THOUGH THINGS, FOR THE MOST PART, APPEAR TO BE DISCONNECTED WITH CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THAT COULD CHANGE. THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...DRYING TREND CONTINUES WITH ZONAL-ISH FLOW ALOFT FORMING BY FRIDAY AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...ONE LAST DAY, OR AT LEAST HALF DAY, OF TRANQUILITY ON SATURDAY BEFORE EAST COAST STORM NEARS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. DEPENDING ON THE QUICKNESS AND POSITION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY, HELPING TO DEVELOP GULF COAST SURFACE INFLECTION, DICTATES HOW FAST PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON SATURDAY. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAKENING TREND IN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE PACKAGES FOR THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THE QPF EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY, AND THAT TOO LOOKS LIKE IT IS BECOMING MORE WASHED OUT. AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY THROW BACK SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TOO. AS FOR PTYPES, THE INTERIOR ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SNOW WHILE I-95 EASTWARD LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE LIQUID ON SATURDAY EVENING. A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH GOES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY COULD SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY - TUESDAY...COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE BY ON SUNDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. STARTING TO SEE MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FUNNEL INTO THE PLAINS STATES LATER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORM THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR REGION RIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND WE NEED TO SEE HOW THE PRIOR SYSTEM, ON SUNDAY/MONDAY, DISRUPTS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, IF AT ALL, BEFORE WE HAVE ANY INKLING AS TO HOW TUESDAYS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PATCHY CIGS AOA 3500 FEET BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT BY NOON. BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE POCONOS IN STRATUS AND/OR A SHOWER. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. TONIGHT...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 3000 FT. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS IN A SNOW SHOWER. NW WINDS GUST 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY - SATURDAY...VFR. COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY...SUB-VFR EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SCA POSTED. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO REACH NEAR 25 KT GUSTS MIDDAY AND SCA WINDS CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY ADD LOWER DE BAY TO THE SCA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN FUTURE AFTERNOON FCST ISSUANCE. WAVES NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ONCE THE WINDS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. BUOY 44009 FULL SERVICE RESTORATION PROBABLY DELAYED TIL FEBRUARY 2015. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD STILL BE IN THE 20 PLUS KNOT RANGE, THOUGH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER NEAR TERM...DRAG 1131A SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER

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