Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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340 FXUS61 KPHI 300744 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 344 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A SHORTWAVE CROSSED THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND BROUGHT WITH IT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES. THE SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED THE REGION AND OUTSIDE OF SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRY OUT FOR A TIME TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA TODAY AND SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AS WE SOME DECENT RIDGING OCCUR ALOFT. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A NORTHEAST FLOW AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH THE REGION, ANY AREAS THAT DO SEE BREAKS IN THE SKY WILL START TO CLOUD OVER ONCE AGAIN. EVEN WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICK ENOUGH. WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WE ANTICIPATE THAT HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 50S RIGHT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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TONIGHT, THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WE WILL SEE THE NEXT SYSTEM MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS AND THEN INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT, AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. PWATS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE 1.0- 1.5 INCH RANGE, INDICATING THAT THE RAIN WILL BE STEADY, POSSIBLY, HEAVY AT TIMES.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WHICH ARE SPUN OFF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW FROM THE PLAINS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER. MOSTLY AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. POPS IN THE THE PERIOD ARE EITHER LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BENIGN PERIOD OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION WHILE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THERE ARE STILL SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WITH THE STALLED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...MOST OF THE OP MODELS HAVE THE UPPER H5 HEIGHTS COLLAPSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. SENDING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERY SPELLS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOST OP MODELS FORM SOME SORT OF COASTAL LOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z EC OPERATIONAL MODELS HAS A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM FOR THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. THE CANADIAN ALSO HAS A DEEP LOW IN THE VICINITY...BUT A DAY EARLIER. THE GFS HAS A LOW WEAKER (ONLY AROUND 1000 MB) BUT THE TIMING IS MORE LIKE THE EC. POPS FOR THESE PERIODS WERE RAISED FROM PREVIOUS FCSTS...BUT ARE STILL IN THE CHC RANGE ATTM. DETAILS WILL BE REFINED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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TAFS REMAIN MVFR MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DROP DOWN TO IFR FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH KMIV AND KACY MAY TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW. A PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH TODAY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR WITH FREQUENT RAINS AND AREAS OF FOG. MONDAY NIGHT THRU WED...VFR MOSTLY. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH OVERNIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA. SEAS MAY BUILD NEAR SCA BY WED EVENING ACROSS THE NRN NJ COASTAL WATERS.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...MEOLA SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA

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