Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 222335 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 735 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE HOURLY MODEL RUNS ARE SHIELDING THE ERN PART OF OUR CWA IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM FROM MUCH PCPN. MORE BREAKS ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUDS AS THE VSB SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE WEST WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SO EVENING ADJUSTMENT ARE TO LOWER POPS EAST AND KEEP THEM AS IS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE. BANKING ON CLOUDS REFORMING EAST, OR WE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH DURING THE EVENING. CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA. AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT. NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND SKYCOVER. FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES TOWARD 6 PM. ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT. WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON. TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED/THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU. SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND IFR THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT. FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A MVFR CIG TO FORM IF NOT ALREADY PRESENT. MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE AT KRDG. MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS. OVERNIGHT, GREATER CONFIDENCE OF A LOWER CIG FORMING. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW MVFR VS IFR. IFR CIGS WERE KEPT AT TERMINALS NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND WITH SOME ELEVATION, UPSLOPE FLOW. ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFID AT KABE. SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST. ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND. BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. BEST CHANCE WESTERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1 FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST SHIFTS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH. FAIR WEATHER. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .RIP CURRENTS... LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA RIP CURRENTS...DRAG

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