Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 290403 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1203 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY INFLUENCE OUR AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S OVER MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. WINDS WILL BE WRLY AROUND 10 MPH AND THEN BECOME SWRLY LATE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND NEAR AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE RETURNING TO OUR AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE BETTER LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BUILDING DAYTIME INSTABILITY TUESDAY FOR SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, WHERE WE HAVE SOME HIGH CHANCE OT LOW LIKELY POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER EAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME GIVEN A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL AND SETTLE OFF TO OUR SOUTH, MOST LIKELY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THURSDAY, WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY AGAIN YIELD SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY FROM LATE-DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM, THERE IS MORE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THOUGH, IT DOES LOOK THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND WE HAVE SOME HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR SHWRS/TSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DURING THE TIMEFRAME, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MODERATE WRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT WILL NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHT. SOME INCREASING CI/CS CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS MONDAY...WRLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE. WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT, UNDER 10 KNOTS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; ALTHOUGH, SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE-DAY TO EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS. && .MARINE... WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY AS WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AT BRANDYWINE SHOAL AND CAPE MAY THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. WITH BUOY 009 STILL AT 5 FEET...SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS. WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE AREA WATERS IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET. WEDNESDAY...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WATERS, WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RIP CURRENTS... BASED ON OBSERVER REPORTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE WITH NEW INFORMATION WHEN THE UPDATE IS ISSUED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. && .CLIMATE... THE CHART BELOW SHOWS RAINFALL STATISTICS AT OUR FOUR BIG CLIMATE SITES THRU NOON 6/28. THE COLUMNS ARE BROKEN DOWN BY SITE, "POR" (HOW FAR RECORDS DATE BACK), 6/27 RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL, NORMAL JUNE RAINFALL, JUNE 2015 RAINFALL RANKING, AS WELL AS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD. SITE POR 6/27 JUNE NORMAL RANK WETTEST ILG 1894 2.17 12.46 3.50 2ND 13.66 (2013) ACY 1874 2.37* 8.04 2.81 2ND 8.45 (1920) ABE 1922 0.86 7.02 3.86 6TH 10.51 (1938) PHL 1872 1.34 7.23 3.08 10TH 10.56 (2013) *ATLANTIC CITY BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF 1.74" IN 1912 AT THIS TIME, IT HAS BEEN THE SECOND WETTEST JUNE ON RECOED IN BOTH WILMINGTON AND ATLANTIC CITY. WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN THE MONTH, CURRENT FORECASTS DO NOT FAAVOR EITHER SITE BREAKING THEIR ALL-TIME JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. HOWEVER, IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO CLOSE THE GAP, WHICH IS 0.41 INCHES IN ATLANTIC CITY AND 1.2 INCHES IN WILMINGTON. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...MIKETTA SHORT TERM...MIKETTA/O`HARA LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA RIP CURRENTS... CLIMATE...

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