Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 271440 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 940 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA THIS MORNING AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS, NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AS WELL AS A FEW FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, SO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION THERE. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATER TODAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY STAYING SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THIS AFTERNOON. A PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S COASTAL LOW AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF THE FALL LINE / LOWER TO MID 40S TO THE EAST).
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS. LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY. WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ABE AND TTN. EXPECT THE LAST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO END AT TTN IN BEFORE 16Z AND ABE BY 17Z, RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CLEARING JUST UPSTREAM OF PHL AND PNE SHOULD ALLOW THESE TERMINALS THE BKN MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT TO SCT OUT LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST HRRR/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WHICH HAS CAPTURED THIS FIRST ROUND OF LOWER CIGS, SHOWS ENOUGH DAYTIME MIXING AND CAA ALOFT FOR STRATOCU TO REDEVELOP AROUND 2500 FT BY AROUND 18-19Z. THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET. A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. VFR TONIGHT AS STRATOCU DIMINISHES. SHOULD STILL SEE MID TO HI CLOUDS OVERHEAD. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS. SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS.
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&& .MARINE...
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AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING, WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE FOR MONITORING THE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA EQUIPMENT...KLEIN

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