Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 192337 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 737 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough moves across the region tonight. High pressure currently over the Midwest builds overhead on Sunday, and then moves offshore Sunday night. High pressure remains anchored off the Mid- Atlantic coast through Tuesday before drifting out to sea Tuesday night. A cold front moves across the region on Wednesday, and then low pressure may move along the coast Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure then builds east for the end of the week and into the start of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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The cold front that moved across the area earlier today will push farther out to sea tonight, while a surface trough will cross the area this evening. As this trough moves across the area, a short wave/vorticity impulse aloft will move across the area as well. The line of thunderstorms associated with this trough which has been making its way through central PA looks like it should arrive in Berks County by 8 PM. However, intensity and coverage looks to be decreasing with the loss of day time heating. Hi resolution models depict this trend continuing over the next few hours. Thus, do expect the line to reach east central PA at least, but expect mostly showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms. Any shower activity is expected to completely diminish by midnight as it moves across the area. Some patchy fog may develop overnight through daybreak, but we do not expect any fog to be very dense or widespread.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... High pressure tries to build across the area from the west on Sunday, although a weak surface trough may develop along the east coast. With a lack of moisture and upper level support, no precipitation and little in the way of clouds is expected for Sunday. Temperatures will again warm several degrees above normal, but dewpoints will be even lower than Saturday, so it will not feel as oppressive as it has the last couple of days. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure over the area Sunday night drifts offshore and then becomes centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Return flow sets up on Monday and surface dewpoints slowly build throughout the day. Dewpoints climb to around 70 across the Delmarva, and in the low to mid 60s elsewhere. With high pressure still in control of much of the region, expecting mostly sunny skies for most of the region Monday afternoon for most of NJ and southeast PA. Sunshine may be filtered through some cirrus, but it should not be enough to block viewing of the eclipse. In addition, diurnally driven cumulus will develop during the day, and it will be interesting to see if that diurnally driven cumulus dissipates a bit during the time of the eclipse, and if it redevelops after the eclipse ends. The exception will be for the Delmarva and into extreme southern NJ. With onshore flow and some weak shortwave energy approaching from the west, there should be more in the way of cloud cover in the afternoon, and there could be a few showers and thunderstorms moving into northeast MD and into DE in the afternoon. Highs on Monday will top off in the mid to upper 80s, but it will also be interesting to see if hourly temps fall off during the eclipse, and how they rebound once it ends. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue into the evening as those mid-level shortwaves move across the region. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to slowly drift out to sea on Tuesday. A cold front over the Midwest continues to advance to the east. A pre-frontal trough develops out ahead of the front, and that trough may touch off some showers and thunderstorms across the Delaware and Lehigh Valleys and northwest NJ Tuesday afternoon and evening. That cold front works its way across the region Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. That front moves offshore Wednesday night, and then a much cooler and dryer airmass builds east. Canadian high pressure then drops into the Upper Midwest, and will be centered over the Great Lakes on Thursday. That high gradually builds east through the end of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures fall below normal during this time with highs generally in the 70s to around 80. Lows at night fall into the upper 50s to low 60s, with cooler temperatures in the mountains. With low humidity levels, this should result in comfortable sleeping nights. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Mostly VFR conditions expected across the TAF sites through the TAF period. The one exception is a line of showers and thunderstorms currently over central PA which should arrive at KRDG and KABE near or just before 01Z (based on a time of arrival tool using current radar trends). This line should be weakening as it reaches our region, so there is a small chance the showers could make it into ILG/PHL/PNE/TTN, but too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. There could be some patchy fog overnight through daybreak, but we do not expect any fog to be very dense or widespread. Northwest winds will become southwesterly this afternoon and evening before becoming light and variable most places overnight. Winds will increase again after sunrise Sunday. An occasional gust around 15 knots is possible this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, but they are not expected to be very frequent. OUTLOOK... Sunday night...Mainly VFR. Some patchy fog may result in VSBY restrictions at KRDG/KABE/KMIV/KACY late at night. Monday...VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible, mainly at KILG/KMIV. Tuesday...VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible, mainly at KRDG/KABE in the afternoon. Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions in SHRA/TSRA. Thursday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through Sunday. Winds will shift to the southwest everywhere by this evening and overnight, then become west to northwest by daybreak through midday. Then begin shifting back to a south-southwest direction by the afternoon. OUTLOOK... Sunday night through Thursday...A prolonged period of predominantly sub-SCA conditions expected on the waters. The exception is Tuesday night through Wednesday, as southerly winds may result in 25 KT wind gusts and 5 foot seas during that time. Showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters, mainly Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. .RIP CURRENTS... Waves on the ocean are running around 2-3 feet with a 5-6 second period. Winds along the northern half of the Jersey shore have shifted to the south, while southern Jersey shore and Delaware remain northwest. Everyone is expected to become southwesterly by the late afternoon. Overall expectation is for the risk of rip currents to be low, with a few locations with a more moderate risk, such as LBI. Sunday`s risk is expected to be similar as Saturday as seas are expected to be a little lower and winds will likely react the same way; starting northwest, then shifting southwest by afternoon. So overall low risk expected with a few locations with a more moderate risk. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...MPS Near Term...Johnson/Robertson Short Term...Robertson Long Term...MPS Aviation...Johnson/Robertson/MPS Marine...Robertson/MPS

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