Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 030127 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 927 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AT 9 PM, SFC COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST PA (FROPA THRU PITTSBURGH). DESPITE THE BEST WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DYNAMICS FROM THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA, CONVECTION OVER THE DE/CHSPK BAY REGIONS HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST AS IT MOVED INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AFTER SUNSET AND HAVE BEEN LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES, BUT EVENTUALLY THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND AS THESE STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST LATE THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE THE POCONOS LATE THIS EVE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU SOUTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHWEST NJ OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS TO BE EXITING THE NJ AND DE COASTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THE FRONT MAY NOT PASS THRU ACY-DOV-GED UNTIL THE MORNING. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND WITH THE CAA BEHIND OF THE FRONT BEING WEAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THERE WON`T BE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES POST FRONTAL (HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION). HOWEVER, WHAT THE FRONT WILL BE BRINGING IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURE TODAY, BY TOMORROW, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE RIGHT AT THE AIR TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT SHIFTS JUST TO TOUR SOUTH AND EAST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IN RETURN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MIMIC MORE OF MID SUMMER AS OPPOSED TO LATE SUMMER AND WE WILL SEE MAX TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WE WILL BE AWAITING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY TAKE ALL DAY TO CROSS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MOST POINTS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL LIKELY HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS HEAT WAVE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS QUITE A BIT. SUNDAY...THE FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH THAT WE MAY NOT SEE IT CLEAR THE DELMARVA AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, THE QUESTION WILL BE, WHERE WILL THE FRONT STALL? CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GET SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO INFILTRATE OUR REGION. THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH, INTO SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, WE WILL BE IN A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 70S THROUGH THE REGION AND IT WILL TRULY FEEL LIKE FALL OUT THERE. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH BUT AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY, A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND IT STARTS TO MOVE A BIT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WAVE HELPS MOVE THE FRONT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN TO THE EAST, KEEPING THE MAIN BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WE START TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AT 01Z...SECOND ROUND OF STRONG STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ILG. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO MIV AND ACY BETWEEN 02Z-03Z. HVY DOWNPOURS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS DURING THIS TIME. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT THOSE TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE, SCT SHRA POSSIBLE THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT EDT, BUT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL. NOT EXPECTING A SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT, BUT SWLY WINDS 5-10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE W AND NW BETWEEN 06-12Z. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF BR DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY. VFR ON WED WITH NW WINDS 5-10 KT. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON THU AND FRI MORNINGS. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVE. A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW 20KT EVEN WITH THE FRONT. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND HIGHER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/MEOLA NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA

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