-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
038
FXUS61 KPHI 130526
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
126 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southeastern Pennsylvania this afternoon will
move offshore this evening. High pressure builds south of the
Mid-Atlantic region tonight into Monday. Another area of low
pressure brings more unsettled weather by the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1:15am...Tranquil weather conditions are ongoing across
the area. Some low stratus has developed over eastern PA at this
hour which should work its way east toward the Delaware River
over the next few hours. Made minor changes to the grids early
this morning basis current obs. Otherwise, previous discussion
remains below:

Broad high pressure will remain across the East Coast and
strengthen some overnight, then shift offshore into Monday.
Clouds will scatter out early in the night as drier air filters
in, however areas of fog and some stratus will form overnight
with radiational cooling and light winds. Dense fog currently
appears unlikely. Low temperatures will be in the 40s.

Quiet weather makes a brief return Monday. Initially cloudy and
foggy conditions will scatter out by late morning, with
scattered clouds remaining into the afternoon. Temperatures
will warm into the lower to mid 70s under broad scale
subsidence. Winds will increase from the south to southwest near
10 mph.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fair weather will continue Monday night with high pressure
remaining offshore and dry air remaining in place. Seasonable
temperatures continue with lows Monday night in the 50s.

Poor weather will return for Tuesday into Wednesday as low
pressure slowly deepens across the Ohio valley and advances
slowly towards the Middle Atlantic. The low should tap into some
moisture across the Appalachians and it will be carried up over
our region. A period of rains and perhaps a few tstms are
expected for the period. Plenty of likely/categorical pops for
Tue night/Wed. Temperatures will be little above normal Tue, but
then get scaled back for Wed with plenty of clouds and rains
around. Highs Wed will mostly be in the mid/upper 60s. Rainfall
from the midweek system could range from 1 1/2 inches for
Delmarva and SE NJ to around 1/2 inch for the NW areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
In the wake of the system from the short term, improving
conditions are set for Wednesday night with only chance pops in
the grids for Wednesday evening. After that, upper ridging and
weak surface high pressure settle across the Middle Atlantic and
Northeast. A mild night is expected with lows in the mid/upper
50s.

A short period of mostly fair weather to end the upcoming week
is foreseen presently. The upper ridge diminishes while high
pressure moves offshore. We can`t rule out a couple isolated
showers Thu afternoon, but pops will only be slight chance for
now and won`t appear in the text products. Seasonable
temperatures expected with highs in the low/mid 70s.

Later Friday and into next weekend look unsettled (again!). A
northern stream upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and
tries to absorb some moisture from the Ohio Valley. We`ll carry
some chance pops for Fri night and Saturday for now and keep
lower chance pops into Sunday. There is enough uncertainty with
regards to these periods for now, so check back in a few days
for better details.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through 12Z...MVFR CIGs are expected to lower at KRDG/KABE by
08-09Z to IFR CIGs with periods of mist/patchy fog likely. For
the remainder of the terminals, VFR CIGs are expected to lower
to MVFR CIGs around 09-10Z. Again, patchy fog and low stratus
will be possible, but not widespread. Winds light and variable
or calm. Moderate confidence.

Today...Lingering low clouds and fog scatter out by 13-15Z,
before improving to VFR conditions for the afternoon. South-
southwest winds around 8-13 kt. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR expected. Mostly clear skies with an increase in
clouds late. South winds around 5 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...No significant weather expected.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions
expected with occasional showers.

Thursday/Friday...No significant weather expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Monday. East to
Southeast winds around 5-10 kts tonight. South wind around 10
knots Monday. Seas of 3-4 feet.

Outlook...

Monday night...No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as
wind gusts get near 25 kt. Significant wave heights approach 6
feet Wednesday. Occasional showers.

Wednesday night and Thursday... SCA seas possible, diminishing
Thu. Showers Wed night then mostly Fair Thursday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Deal/Franklin
NEAR TERM...Desilva/Franklin/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Desilva/Franklin/OHara/Staarmann
MARINE...Franklin/OHara