Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 012242 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 642 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG IT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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THE SURVEY TEAM HAS CONCLUDED THEIR WORK IN CHESTER AND LEHIGH COUNTIES. THE RESULTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /PNS/ AND THE INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY. MORE DETAILS WILL BE ADDED ONCE THE SURVEY TEAM RETURNS TO THE OFFICE. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AS OF 22Z IT IS NEAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY THEN ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THEN TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THE MAIN LIFT IS NORTH OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS HAS HELPED TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS POTIONS OF MARYLAND. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION FOR AWHILE LONGER MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN BLENDED IN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY 12Z /WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE/. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALLOWING THE DEW POINTS TO LOWER. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION, WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CHANCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS. OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MAY HAVE A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH THE FRONT RETURNING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THE MODELS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES WITH THE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WE WILL JUST USE THE WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR TODAYS EXTENDED FCST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANY SHOWER THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN MOST TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT THEN TURN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK PRIMARILY AT KABE, KRDG, AND KACY. THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON COULD GET CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY...OVERALL VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRING LOCALLY POORER VSBYS/CIGS. THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR THIS ARE THU NIGHT AND SAT.
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&& .MARINE... SEAS HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THUS, HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KT AT TIMES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THAT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. OUTLOOK... SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WATERS THU NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. && .RIP CURRENTS... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY AND LOW FOR DELAWARE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. && .CLIMATE... RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE RANKED IN THE TOP 5 OF THE AVAILABLE RELIABLE HISTORICAL DATABASE. WILMINGTON #2 12.52. THE WETTEST WAS 13.66 IN 2013 AND THE TOP 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. THE PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) DATES BACK TO 1894. ALLENTOWN #5 7.59 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.51 IN 1938. POR TO 1922. 10.51 1938 THREE OF THE WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003 9.13 2006 8.58 1972 8.30 2003 7.59 2015 ATLANTIC CITY #2 8.36 INCHES. THE WETTEST 8.45 INCHES 1920. POR 1874. PHILADELPHIA #3 8.88 INCHES. THE WETTEST 10.56 2013, #2 IS 10.06 IN 1938. THREE OF 4 WETTEST JUNES OCCURRED SINCE 2003. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IN OUR FORECAST AREA GENERALLY AVERAGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA NEAR TERM...GORSE/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA RIP CURRENTS... CLIMATE...

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