Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 220457 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1257 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG. LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS WILL SOON CLEAR WITH REMAINING SPRINKLES NEARING THE POCONOS DYING OUT THERE BY 08Z. LIGHT WIND TURNING NW. TODAY...SUNNY THIS MORNING THEN PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN AS A BAND OF MODEST INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF A CFP PASSES SEWD THROUGH THE AREA WITH DECENT TOTAL TOTALS BUT ALMOST ZERO MLCAPE (NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE HIGH BASED SPRINKLE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KT). INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH 20 MPH THIS MORNING AND ABOUT 30 MPH BY MID AFTN. THE WSHIFT TO NNW ARRIVES VCNTY I-80 IN THE 6P-8P TIME FRAME (WHICH IS REALLY THIS EVENING-EARLY TONIGHT). TEMPS REBOUND AFTER YDYS 12 TO 18 BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS WITH THIS AFTNS TEMPS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY AFTN (NEAR NORMAL MAX`S). FORECAST GENERATED GENERALLY FROM A 5050 BLEND OF 00Z/22 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE (GFS/NAM). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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CLEAR AND TURNING CHILLY AS THE CFP NEAR I-80 (NE PA/NNJ) IN THE 6P- 8P TIME FRAME SLIPS DOWN TO VCNTY KACY-KPHL AROUND 11P WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED EARLY DURING THE NIGHT THEN DECOUPLING-RAPIDLY DIMINISHING WIND LATE AS TEMPS FALL RAPIDLY. WILL CONTINUE A TOUCH OF SCT FROST FROM WARREN-SUSSEX COUNTIES IN NW NJ INTO MONROE AND CARBON COUNTIES OF NE PA. JUST NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED FOR A FROST ADVY. ALSO WITH FULL GREENUP, PROBABLY ENOUGH LEAF COVER TO PREVENT MUCH DAMAGE NOW. STILL, CANT BE ABSOLUTELY SURE AND SO SCT FROST IN THE FCST AND POSSIBLE SPS MATERIAL LATE TODAY FOR THOSE IN SUCH PLACES AS WALPACK, PEQUEST, THE TYPICALLY COLDEST LOW LYING AREAS IN THE NW FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A BIT OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY? FCST GENERALLY FROM A 50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/22 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE (GFS/NAM). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL MOSTLY CONSIST OF FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL SAT MORNING WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S FAR NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S MOST OTHER AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S MOST AREAS. A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING TO THE WEST. POPS REMAIN ONLY IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST WILL FEATURE MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE LATE JUNE THAN LATE MAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S...BUT THEN TUE-THU WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE. THE PERIOD WILL ALSO HAVE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ALMOST DAILY CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TEMPS CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAT WAVE (THREE 90+ MAX TEMP DAYS) ACROSS THE URBAN AREAS. RAINS IN THE PERIOD WILL BE SPOTTY AND LOCALLY HEAVY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR CONDS SE PA, S NJ AND DELMARVA WITH LIGHT NW WIND WHILE VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE START CLEARING WITH LIGHT WIND THERE AS WELL. AFTER 12Z TODAY...VFR CLEAR THIS MORNING THEN SCT-BKN AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN WITH THE SLIGHT CHC OF A WLY 30KT GUSTY SPRINKLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GENERALLY GRADIENT WLY GUSTS 20 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTN. TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR. THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY. WSHIFT TO 20-25KT GUSTY NNW THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FIRST NEAR I-80 AROUND 00Z REACHING KPHL/KACY AROUND 03-05Z. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SPOTTY FOG WITH POOR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MON THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SAFE BOATING WEEK CONCLUDES TODAY. WE`LL POST OUR FINAL PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT AROUND 430 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE SOCIAL MEDIA POST AROUND 8AM. I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE NEW USCG SAFETY APP TO MY SMART PHONE, JUST IN CASE. THE FORECAST... SCA VCNTY 44009 EARLY TODAY THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS NOT YET RESPONDING AS OF 04Z BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS SHORTLY AS THEY ARE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEN SCA ALL OTHER WATERS, ESPECIALLY THIS FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. WLY WIND GST 25-30 KT THIS AFTN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THEN JUST AFT OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WSHFT TO NNW THIS EVENING. STRONGEST WIND NEAR THE SHORE WHERE ITS WARMER AND BETTER MIXING- MOMENTUM TRANSFER. OUTLOOK... SCA FLAG FRI INTO THE EVENING THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW END SCA FLAG FOR SEAS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOW CONFID IN SCA CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, TODAY`S RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO KEEP FINE FUEL MOISTURE FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE GREEN-UP IS NOT COMPLETE, MOST NOTABLY THE PINE BARREN. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR FRIDAY.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS...
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SST`S CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST OFF THE COAST SSTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY ALMOST 3C. THIS IS NOT GOOD ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS. BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON. ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER TEMPS ARE WARMING --UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE). FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE! SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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**TOP 10 WARMEST MAY CONTINUES LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA** THE FIRST 20 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE FCSTS FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...SO THE PROJECTIONS FROM YESTERDAY STILL LOOK ON TRACK. FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING AN AVG TEMP OF 68.7 TO 69.3 OR AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND AT THE LEAST, 3RD WARMEST ON RECORD. WARMEST WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004. FOR ALLENTOWN...POR TO 1922. YESTERDAY WE WERE PROJECTING 65.0 OR 5.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD. WARMEST WAS 67.2 IN 1991. POSTED BECAUSE ITS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY HAVE OUR FIRST 90 IN PHILADELPHIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER. PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY JUNE 11.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>452. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ453>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/DRAG 1257A NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/JOHNSON 1257A SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 1257A LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/JOHNSON/O`HARA 1257A MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/O`HARA 1257A FIRE WEATHER...1257A RIP CURRENTS...1257A CLIMATE...

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