Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 161437 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1037 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The cold front that passed through our region during the night will continue to move out to sea today. High pressure is expected to follow for the period from tonight through Thursday. Another cold front from the northwest is forecast to arrive on Thursday night. High pressure is anticipated to build back over the eastern states for Friday and Saturday before moving off the coast on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A few updates for the mid-morning. A short wave is now approaching Delmarva and there have been a resumption of the showers across the area. Pops for the late morning and early afternoon were ticked upward a bit, and prolonged by a few hours. Up to a tenth of an inch could fall by early afternoon. Elsewhere, showers have ended and a slow drying from NW to SE has begun. A few breaks in the clouds have been observed across the Lehigh Valley in the past few hours. Winds are expected to become gusty out of the west to northwest and could gust 20-30 mph at times across the area. The gusts should begin to diminish around sunset for many areas. Temperatures...the northwest flow behind the front has resulted in cooler air filtering in across the area. Temperatures are expected to remain steady or lower slightly through the rest of the morning hours, then may rise a couple of degrees this afternoon as the sun comes out. However, calendar day highs have likely already occurred for most areas before sunrise this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... Any remaining gusts from the day will continue to diminish into the evening hours. Mostly clear skies are expected, and much cooler conditions. In fact, many areas could be a degree or two below normal low temperatures tonight. With the cool conditions, areas of frost are possible tonight across northern New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania. Therefore we keep the previous Frost Advisory, and have expanded it to a few additional counties. It is possible that a few locations in the Poconos may see temperatures near freezing as well, but we do not expect them to be widespread enough for a Freeze Warning. There may also be some patchy frost across the Pine Barrens across southern New Jersey, however winds are forecast to be high enough to preclude a Frost Advisory there. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure located over the Middle Atlantic States and vicinity will influence our weather during the period from Tuesday through Sunday. No precipitation is anticipated. A mid level short wave trough and an associated cold front may arrive from the northwest on Thursday night. However, there will be little moisture associated with these features. Normal temperatures for the coming week and weekend in southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern Maryland are generally highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Normals highs in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and northern New Jersey are mostly in the middle and upper 50s with normal lows in the middle and upper 30s. Tuesday`s temperatures are forecast to be at the low end or just below the the normal range. As the week progresses, temperatures are anticipated to rise back above normal. Highs should favor the 70s with lows mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conditions have returned to the terminals as of the late morning. It is possible that KACY may still experience some MVFR in the approaching showers, but confid in this is low and I have not written them in the latest AMD for ACY. Slowly clearing skies from NW to SE expected this afternoon. Some spill-over SC clouds (VFR cigs) from the NW possible later for KRDG-KABE. Winds will become quite gusty through the rest of the morning hours and into this afternoon. West to northwest winds are expected to increase, with gusts of 20-25 knots possible. The wind gusts are diminish late this afternoon and into this evening. OUTLOOK... Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory remains in place for all the waters today and tonight. Winds are expected to increase behind a cold front that will move across the waters this morning. Winds are expected to increase to 25-30 knots through today and into tonight. Also, seas on the Atlantic Ocean are expected to remain around 5-7 feet today, but may begin to subside some tonight. OUTLOOK... Tuesday through Friday...No marine headlines are anticipated. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ061-062- 105. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ054-055. NJ...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ009-010. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ001-007- 008. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ430-431- 450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...Robertson/PO Short Term...Robertson Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Iovino/Robertson/PO Marine...Iovino/Robertson

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