Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 292328 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 728 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... THIS ESTF UPDATE IS MAINLY TO ADJUST CURRENT TEMPS. LATEST HRRR AND COSPA NOT SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION LEFT AND OBSERVED SFC BASED CAPES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1000J ON OUR SIDE OF THE BAY. CONVECTION IN VA AND PA HAVE TO TAKE THE LONG ROUTE TO GET INTO OUR CWA AND NO CHANGE IN MESOSCALE MODELS DISSIPATING THEM BEFORE THEY COME CLOSE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE BASED ON INCREASING CONSENSUS OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE OCEAN, WE UPPED SKY COVER EAST LATE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDING OVER THE EAST COAST STATES AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY HAVE GRADUALLY SHIFTED FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW, AND SOME RETURN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARD HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE OTHER MAIN ELEMENT TO WATCH WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR PERHAPS A FEW LOWER CLOUDS TO FORM, MAINLY FROM ALONG THE COAST AND INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST ON THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME, WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... DURING THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION AROUND THE APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOME COOLER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE POCONOS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SUN THRU WED...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SUN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME PARALLEL TO IT. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH WEAK RIDGING BY WED-THU...WITH FAIR WX EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPS... W/THE EXCEPTION OF MON AND TUE...SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON SUN AND HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN AFTN...WITH AN ANAFRONT-TYPE SETUP...AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ML CAPE VALUES REACH 2-3 KJ...WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR IS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES /1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/ AS WELL AS SLUGGISH STORM MOTION. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUN/EARLY MON AND THIS LEADS TO AN OVERRUNNING REGIME...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG IT DURING THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HERE IS WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE MODELS TREND FURTHER NORTH...GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. 00Z TAFS ARE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC OVERNIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN RECENT HOURLY MODELING TRENDS OF A GROWING CONSENSUS OF A BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIG FORMING TOWARD MORNING THRUT OUR REGION WITH CIGS TENDING TO BE IFR NEAR/AT THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE INLAND, BUT HIGH AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. FOR THIS EVENING...VFR NO CIG, MAINLY CIRRUS. LOWEST CONFIDENCE KACY AS THEY SHOULD BE FIRST TO OBSERVE THE STRATUS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT...LOW MVFR TO IFR CIG FORMING AND SPREADING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION. CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AT THE COAST AND LATER AT NIGHT INLAND. VSBYS BECOMING MVFR, IFR AT KMIV. IF LOW CLOUDS DO NOT FORM, GREATER CHANCES FOR IFR VSBYS AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING VFR WITH NO CIG DVLPG BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. VSBY LIKELY IMPROVING FIRST TO VFR. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A GUSTIER SOUTH WIND. WIND GUSTS IN FINAL FORECAST GROUP MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP, BUT MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF EXCLUSION AT KABE. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESP ACY AND MIV. SUN...MVFR LIKELY IN SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS... OTHERWISE VFR. SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...LOW CLOUDS...AND FOG. TUE...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ADVECT TO THE COAST, CAUSING LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE WATERS, OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE INCOMING DATA. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SEAS MEETING SCA THRESHOLDS. && .RIP CURRENTS... NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC. WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4 UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE. OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO. CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60, SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW. && .CLIMATE... MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29. CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY EVENING. ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922. AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD. 1991 67.2 2012 66.1 1944 66.0 2004 65.9 PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD. 1991 70.8 NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004. ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874 2004 66.9 1991 66.0 2015 WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST 1896 70.1 1991 69.1 2004 68.2 2015 AROUND 68.0 NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANCK NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLINE SHORT TERM...KLINE LONG TERM...FRANCK AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE RIP CURRENTS... CLIMATE...

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