Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 061957 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 357 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY, WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND IT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BORDER WITH MARYLAND. THESE TWO FEATURES HAVE KEPT US IN AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY BUT ARE MORE CONFINED TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AS THEY SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW. WHILE WE START TO SEE DRYING OCCUR ABOVE THE SURFACE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. LOWS TONIGHT WON`T DROP MUCH FROM THE DAYS HIGHS, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW STARTS TO OPEN UP ON SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, IT WILL START TO PUSH TO THE EAST GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED OVER US TODAY, WILL START TO FALL APART AS IT GRADUALLY GETS ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. SOME SHOWERS MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY BUT EXPECT THINGS TO START CLEARING UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COOLER AIR WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL START TO MODIFY ON SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, SOME UPPER 50S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE CLOSED LOW OVER OUR AREA FINALLY OPENS UP LATER SATURDAY AND BEGINS MOVING TO OUR EAST THOUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD, AND THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY, BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON THE WEATHER. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF MONDAY. HOWEVER, A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO OVERRIDE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH COULD CREATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA, AND STALL ACROSS OUR THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE, AND ANY OTHER THAT FORM, COULD CAUSE THE FRONT TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND STALLS OUT. THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ENHANCED WHEN SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK AS THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED THE TERMINALS WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS NEAR KRDG. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC AND INTO OUR AREA. AS THIS OCCURS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY ALOFT WHILE THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE EVENT AND WE TRANSITION THE TERMINALS TO DRIZZLE FROM 22Z-00Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, LOW CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BELOW 1000FT, DROPPING AS LOW AS 400 FT AT SOME LOCATIONS. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY...IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS ON IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WE EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO RISE BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO GO VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TUESDAY...PERIODS OF LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO A LIFTING AND STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .MARINE... THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN ALONG ATLANTIC AND OCEAN COUNTIES. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 35 KNOTS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE FORCE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR BUT SHOULD DROP OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THE GALE IS TAKEN DOWN, THERE WILL BE A NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINING OCEAN ZONES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR TONIGHT. SEAS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL DROP BELOW 5 FEET, FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CEASE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET ON THE WATERS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUNDAY...WINDS MAY GUST 25-30 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET. SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE NEW MOON WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR AT 330 PM TODAY AND THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAVE FACILITATED THE ONGOING TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS OUR REGION. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME MORE OFFSHORE...REDUCING THE FLOODING THREAT. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND UP INTO DELAWARE BAY...THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SHORE THIS EVENING GENERALLY BETWEEN 730 PM AND 830 PM...THEN UP INTO DELAWARE BAY BETWEEN 830 PM AND AROUND 10 PM. THE HIGH TIDE THE BACK BAYS WILL BE 4 TO 5 HOURS LATER. IT APPEARS THAT MODERATE FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITH DEPARTURES OF + 1.5 FT. WE WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. THE SUBSEQUENT TIDES WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. NORTHERN DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE TIDAL PART OF THE DELAWARE RIVER...THE LEVELS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE ELEVATED...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT NECESSARY TO CREATE MODERATE FLOODING. INSTEAD...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND THE PRESENT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER BAY WILL BE CONTINUED. WE HAVE ADDED A NEW ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL SEGMENTS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT REEDY POINT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AT PHILADELPHIA AROUND 230 AM. THESE AREAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OVERNIGHT. CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE ELEVATED WATERS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WERE AT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS AT CAMBRIDGE EARLIER TODAY. THE PRESENT (LOWER) HIGH TIDE WILL CREATE WATER LEVELS JUST AT MINOR LEVELS AND AN ADVISORY HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. THIS ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING SINCE THE DEPARTURES AT THE NEXT (HIGHER) HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MUCH OVERNIGHT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014- 020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ016. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ017>019. DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012- 015-019-020. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...MEOLA SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA

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